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LDs move to a 78% chance in Tiverton and Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks Andy J. With much smaller turnouts we may have this wrapped up by around 3am then?
    Maybe in Wakefield. Tiverton may be close so that'll add an extra hour or two.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited June 2022
    micktrain said:



    Regardless of what happens to Johnson I think much of the red wall is now lost

    The thing is, the bond is broken now between Labour and large chunks of it's heartlands.

    The "red wall" may swing back to Labour at the next election but future elections could easily see it going to Con again (Con may be in a similar situation with parts of the south and the Lib-Dems)

    I think this century will see a lot more volatility as regions are no longer cemented to their old allegiances. It's going to be an interesting few decades...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    But you are a liar and a bullshitter, and you have been banned on multiple occasions.

    As for “consistently rude”?!? Jeepers.
    Er, weren’t you banned for about,…. Six years??
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight's Nick Watt:

    "Tories in Tiverton — very long faces "

    Allowing horses to join the party was always going end up with that line at some point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight's Nick Watt:

    "Tories in Tiverton — very long faces "

    Boris is saved?
  • *LIB DEMS*
    Upbeat on Tiverton. They talked to 20k people in seat today
    Source claims “very significant swing” from Tories (echoes what senior Tory source said)
    Also said anacdotally Labourites lent votes to Libs + Tory switchers still being swayed today
    Summary: ‘really tight’ 5/

    Tactical voting = big problems for the Tories going forward
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,108
    edited June 2022

    Loving all the suggestions for where to move to. I think maybe we might be doing a few trips away over the next 18 months to check some of these places out.

    Thanks all!

    Add Stamford, Lincs to your list. Mrs Foxys parents used to live there and it is a beautiful old town, but not too expensive. It used to be the halfway stop overnight for the London to York route so is full of Georgian coaching inns and pubs. Burleigh House and Park are great to visit too. The train connection to London via Peterborough is good, there is a fair bit going on, and some lovely countryside around in Rutland and rural Northants.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    edited June 2022
    On the topic of our rapidly banned Russian troll novicock this evening, I see another user @uvcuringadhesive joined at 16:11 and was immediately banned without making a post - or even a visit.

    That's got to be some kind of record, shirley?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Jardine sounding confident for Liberals.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    Leon said:

    Yep. Ditto Ludlow, Kington, Leominster, Ledbury and others

    The Welsh Marches are the lost but preserved loveliness of England, and long may they remain so

    They bring with them a pang, however. When you walk around a largely unspoiled town like Ledbury or Ross you realise that, once, all of England was like this
    Well, up to a point.

    I'm on your side, architecturally. I like loveliness.I don't like ugliness.
    But what we have a lot less of nowadays is actual squalor. York nowadays is a honeypot; a lovely preservation of a medeival city - but the actual medeival city; and indeed the Georgian city, and the Victorian city - was a shithole, a stinking, squalid dump where the vast majority of people lived in highly unsightly poverty. Even in the 30s, the town was sooty and blackened.

    I'd like more of England's small towns to be like Ledbury and Ross. We could have made much better decisions with how we preserved and developed our towns. But I am very glad to live in the 21st century.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    carnforth said:

    Exeter is in the South East of England, according to the strictures of the Network Railcard. So you can have 1/3 off rail travel to London and other points east, at any age.

    :)
    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,108
    Andy_JS said:

    Looking after someone's luggage ought to be a no-brainer for 100% of people.
    That isn't the story. The airline lost their bags, the Islanders sorted out a crowdsourced wedding.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    malcolmg said:

    She is a total button wanting everyone who does not agree with her crap to be banned. You are in good company leon.
    Never heard total button before.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    On the topic of our rapidly banned Russian troll novicock this evening, I see another user @uvcuringadhesive joined at 16:11 and was immediately banned without making a post - or even a visit.

    That's got to be some kind of record, shirley?

    Probably posting spam links and got completely nuked, so you don't see any of their posts.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Jardine sounding confident for Liberals.

    Reading the runes its not even close. LDs by 5,000 plus
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    Foxy said:

    Add Stamford, Lincs to your list. Mrs Foxys parents used to live there and it is a beautiful old town, but not too expensive. It used to be the halfway stop overnight for the London to York route so is full of Georgian coaching inns and pubs. Burleigh House and Park are great to visit too. The train connection to London via Peterborough is good, there is a fair bit going on, and some lovely countryside around in Rutland and rural Northants.
    Yes, Stamford is lovely. While you're in that neck of the woods you should also add Ely to the list - an attractive city and a good quality of life without breaking the bank. As long as your demands don't include hills the East offers a lot.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    GIN1138 said:

    Out of interest how's your mate Ex-Speaker Bercow holding up now he's been exposed as a bully, banned from Parliament and no broadcaster in the land seems to want to go near him with a ten foot barge pole?
    The not so long and very short of it is that "The Berc" is utterly unrepentant .... :blush:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632
    @Leon - you were looking for places to travel to earlier.

    Why not go to Moldova or Romania or maybe even one of the Baltic states? You can sort out deliveries of fresh underpants and stuff. The food and wine is good. Interesting stuff to see, lots of history & you can take the temperature of states on the edge of a European war.

    This suggestion is in no way connected to the fact that I am currently working and cannot travel, enjoy your travelogues and am also interested in learning more about these countries.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,108

    Allowing horses to join the party was always going end up with that line at some point.
    Should I stake a pony on them losing?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    I wonder if Boris's allies actually sent in a load on no-confidence letters to get the vote done early, knowing that if it came after the by-elections it would be curtains.
    Do you think Boris is actually organized enough to... well... organize something like that? ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    edited June 2022
    Wakefield result at the local elections in May this year:

    Labour 12130 50.7%
    Conservatives 8025 33.5%
    Yorkshire Party 1395 5.8%
    Greens 1213 5.0%
    Liberal Democrats 829 3.5%
    Others 350 1.5%

    Labour lead = 4,105 votes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    edited June 2022

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones as serious contenders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    edited June 2022
    Cookie said:

    Well, up to a point.

    I'm on your side, architecturally. I like loveliness.I don't like ugliness.
    But what we have a lot less of nowadays is actual squalor. York nowadays is a honeypot; a lovely preservation of a medeival city - but the actual medeival city; and indeed the Georgian city, and the Victorian city - was a shithole, a stinking, squalid dump where the vast majority of people lived in highly unsightly poverty. Even in the 30s, the town was sooty and blackened.

    I'd like more of England's small towns to be like Ledbury and Ross. We could have made much better decisions with how we preserved and developed our towns. But I am very glad to live in the 21st century.
    Sure, but this was likewise true of Italy, Spain and France. Full of magnificently varied and architecturally glorious and historically fascinating small towns and cities, which were likewise sunk in poverty and grime, but unlike us THOSE countries did not have this weird self-hating socialistic postwar generation of town planners and architects who tore down everything they could in pursuit of a new vision of urban life, unfortunately ruining a million cityscapes in their lunacy

    it really makes me weep. The UK probably had the most beautiful towns and cities on earth, alongside France and Italy. We fucked most of them up. All by ourselves, after a kick start by the Germans
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    JACK_W said:

    The not so long and very short of it is that "The Berc" is utterly unrepentant .... :blush:
    I'm sure he is. Berk by name... Berk by... ;)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    micktrain said:



    Could see Tories tanking in polls further as recession now looks inevitable Could though see a Farage type offshoot develop

    Yep that Lab 5 or 6 pt lead is looking set in cement. Only a fool would assume there's still much uncertainty and things could change before the general election.



    I agree if neither leader is changed, and no black swans, Labour win by 4 or 5. I don’t agree Tories have to tank in polls just because economy is bad, they might not get blame for it, their action on it may be popular, promises of Tory tax cuts may win votes when people feel hard up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    Andy_JS said:

    Langbaurgh just got a mention on Newsnight. The constituency which is now known as Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.

    As the almanac of British politics put it, an illogical and unwieldy name to replace an unpronouncable one.

    I rather liked Langbaurgh (pron. Langbarf, or near enough). One of those names which 95% of people couldn't place and for even the 5% who could place it almost all of them had no use of the word except for that very constituency. It felt as if it had been coined to describe a very specific area of the country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,108

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    It won't be by one vote.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Andy_JS said:


    If the Tories only lose Wakefield by
    say 4,000 votes that won't necessarily be true.
    I think support for union action in order to push up wages will only increase from here The Tories may try to keep mentioning the 70s but I don't think it will work this time The country is changing

  • wf1954wf1954 Posts: 16
    carnforth said:

    Exeter is in the South East of England, according to the strictures of the Network Railcard. So you can have 1/3 off rail travel to London and other points east, at any age.

    Correct, but important to point out the Network Railcard is only valid to Exeter on the slower route to London Waterloo via Salisbury and Yeovil, not the fast service to Paddington.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674
    edited June 2022
    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    If they lose badly, perhaps there will be a cabinet revolt.
    Leon said:

    Sure, but this was likewise true of Italy, Spain and France. Full of magnificently varied and architecturally glorious and historically fascinating small towns and cities, which were likewise sunk in poverty and grime, but unlike us THOSE countries did not have this weird self-hating socialistic postwar generation of town planners and architects who tore down everything they could in pursuit of a new vision of urban life, unfortunately ruining a million cityscapes in their lunacy

    it really makes me weep. The UK probably had the most beautiful towns and cities on earth, alongside France and Italy. We fucked most of them up. All by ourselves, after a kick start by the Germans
    France did. They've got some horrors.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 800
    edited June 2022
    Cookie said:

    I haven't been to Shrewsbury since 1998.
    But liked it. As did my girlfriend at the time, sort of. She called it a 'less-bad version of Durham'.
    She was not given to great displays of unreserved enthusiasm.
    LOL as an ex-Durham man (admittedly it was a bit rubbish in the 80s and 90s)

    What I liked about Shrewsbury was that, although not a large town, it is still the largest town for miles around in most directions and so has everything you might need on a regular basis, all the main shops etc. It was historically important and has an unusually large historic core, which has mostly been left alone. All nestling in the bend of the Severn.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    Leon said:

    Sure, but this was likewise true of Italy, Spain and France. Full of magnificently varied and architecturally glorious and historically fascinating small towns and cities, which were likewise sunk in poverty and grime, but unlike us THOSE countries did not have this weird self-hating socialistic postwar generation of town planners and architects who tore down everything they could in pursuit of a new vision of urban life, unfortunately ruining a million cityscapes in their lunacy

    it really makes me weep. The UK probably had the most beautiful towns and cities on earth, alongside France and Italy. We fucked most of them up. All by ourselves, after a kick start by the Germans
    Yes - we didn't even get that big a kick start from the Germans, and others that did in many cases thought 'actually, we rather liked our towns - let's rebuild them as they were'.
    We are not totally unique. Rotterdam was reuilt 'daringly', and you can spot the malign influence of modernism in France. But we have been more hostile to our heritage than most.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674

    On the topic of our rapidly banned Russian troll novicock this evening, I see another user @uvcuringadhesive joined at 16:11 and was immediately banned without making a post - or even a visit.

    That's got to be some kind of record, shirley?

    If they had been named 'AV curing adhesive' they'd have been welcomed with open arms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    If they lose badly, perhaps there will be a cabinet revolt. France did. They've got some horrors.
    France experienced nothing like our self-harm

    There are a few horrors, but they are few

    The French have a greater sense of “the patrimony” that-must-not-be-overthrown. Cf Macron’s response to statue toppling: Fuck off, it’s not happening here, and it didn’t

    Chapeau. I don’t like him, but chapeau
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Rachel Maskell just made herself look like an absolute plonker there with that letter stunt. Does she really think she is going to get such weasel words past Mick Lynch?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    edited June 2022
    Cookie said:

    As the almanac of British politics put it, an illogical and unwieldy name to replace an unpronouncable one.

    I rather liked Langbaurgh (pron. Langbarf, or near enough). One of those names which 95% of people couldn't place and for even the 5% who could place it almost all of them had no use of the word except for that very constituency. It felt as if it had been coined to describe a very specific area of the country.
    It was a wapentake.
    Like Makerfield. Which was a hundred.
    I quite like these ancient names. They should be brought back.
    Not Westmorland and Furness. But Westmorland and Lonsdale.
    Going back further Elmet.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    You can get a 40% return with the LDs in Tiverton on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,442

    They don't have to be that patient. There are plenty enough people to cooperate with in the State legislatures who will pass legislation for the purpose of triggering a court challenge.
    Expect numerous such cases regarding existing state gun control regulations.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/06/supreme-court-new-york-concealed-carry-law-gun-control-bruen.html
    … But Thomas did not stop there. In striking down New York’s restriction, the justice also established a new standard for evaluating gun control measures. First, he asked whether a law interferes with rights protected in “the plain text” of the Second Amendment—specifically, the right to self-defense (which is not actually in the amendment’s text). If so, Thomas explained, that law is presumptively unconstitutional. The government may only save it from invalidation if it can prove that the regulation “is consistent with this nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

    In other words, courts may no longer rely on empirical evidence in upholding gun control laws. They cannot, for instance, cite the heightened lethality of a particular weapon. Such data is now irrelevant. Rather, they can only ask whether there is some “historical analogue” from 1791 (when the Second Amendment was ratified) or 1868 (when the 14th Amendment was ratified, applying the Second Amendment to the states). One might assume that this analysis would only shield weapons that were in common use in 1791 or 1868. But Thomas clarified that “any modern instruments that facilitate armed self-defense” are also protected under the Constitution, even if they did not exist until recently.…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516

    Rachel Maskell just made herself look like an absolute plonker there with that letter stunt. Does she really think she is going to get such weasel words past Mick Lynch?

    Rachel Maclean
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,442
    dixiedean said:

    Never heard total button before.
    I don’t think malcolm means bright as a…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,652
    wf1954 said:

    Correct, but important to point out the Network Railcard is only valid to Exeter on the slower route to London Waterloo via Salisbury and Yeovil, not the fast service to Paddington.
    Do you have a reference for that? Can’t see anything on the website. I can see from Sunil’s map that the line leaves the area, but surely it’s only the endpoints that matter?

  • I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Foxy said:

    It won't be by one vote.
    Will you ramp it, if it’s less than 4K?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Hodges making a pillock of himself saying the Tories have done really well on expectation management front but must hold Tiverton.
    They haven't Dan. Read the room, its not close
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    Leon said:

    Quite so

    I probably put more value on aesthetics. @Heathener being a late middle aged woman, likely puts more value on moral worth or vibrancy, as aesthetics are no longer her calling card
    C'mon Leon. It's not that it's unchivalrous, it's that it looks like Heathener got under your skin.

    Kundera's heroes were always above such leaden exchanges.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Seem to be a lot of tory plants in QT audience.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,388

    Unfortunately I believe Labour cannot be seen to be remotely pro-EU. The political damage would be enormous.

    A sensible Conservative leader,
    on the other hand could agree to closer ties, and that would enhance their electoral chances too.
    That would seem obvious but maybe they know their Red Wallers better than we do and know them to be a cult of masochistic self flagellators.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901

    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
    By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have.
    So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Rachel Maclean
    Apologies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203

    I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?

    Need the maj sub 10k Horse
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901

    Rachel Maclean
    Who?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    carnforth said:

    Do you have a reference for that? Can’t see anything on the website. I can see from Sunil’s map that the line leaves the area, but surely it’s only the endpoints that matter?

    Unfortunately, looks like the railcard area ends at Bedwyn along the GWR Reading to Exeter route.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    edited June 2022
    The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408

    Hodges making a pillock of himself saying the Tories have done really well on expectation management front but must hold Tiverton.
    They haven't Dan. Read the room, its not close

    Tories down at 3 now on BF
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Just for the record, I've posted 10 times all evening and only 2 were with regard to Leon.

    I came on here for any by-election snippets and found myself defending Exeter, a city I know extremely well. I very rarely come on here at night. It's a bear pit.

    I just get rather weary of Leon's know-it-all postings when he really doesn't know as much as he appears to convey. Maybe if you were a good deal less definite Leon it might help. But I fear that treading gently with you is a lost cause. You are terribly aggressive and it puts me right off this site to be honest. No worries.

    But, yes, Exeter is a great city.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield result at the local elections in May this year:

    Labour 12130 50.7%
    Conservatives 8025 33.5%
    Yorkshire Party 1395 5.8%
    Greens 1213 5.0%
    Liberal Democrats 829 3.5%
    Others 350 1.5%

    Labour lead = 4,105 votes

    I think Labour will come in a bit under that and a 12% win would be fine. The Wakefield East ward swung wildly (27% Con to Lab) from 2021 to 2022, Con fielded an Asian candidate in 2021 and squeaked it, Lab fielded an Asian candidate in 2022 and got a 52% majority. In the by election, notwithstanding a disgraced Asian ex MP, the Tories are fielding another Asian candidate and it will be worth a few votes. That 1 (of 6) ward contributed 4.5% of the overall 11% LE swing.

    Must admit, I gave up with T&H locals, translating County wards back to the District ones was too much, especially as the Tories looked pretty untouched and the only vaguely interesting question was LD and Lab relative position - so didn't look too relevant to the BE dynamic.

    There is a map website on which you can overlay county and districts, but I didn't go for it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Need the maj sub 10k Horse
    10K is that what we are expecting?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    GIN1138 said:

    Do you think Boris is actually organized enough to... well... organize something like that? ;)
    No. But Shapps did.

    It deffo happened like that. Straight after the bank holiday, not even waiting till Wednesday. Just as drip drip was causing damage.
    And it worked, it burst the pressure bubble.
    Evidence? A cheesed off looking 1922 who knew it had been manipulated.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516

    Seem to be a lot of tory plants in QT audience.

    Very weedy!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    Keystone said:

    C'mon Leon. It's not that it's unchivalrous, it's that it looks like Heathener got under your skin.

    Kundera's heroes were always above such leaden exchanges.
    Yes, probably. Tsk!

    Anyroad it is 2am here in T’bilisi, and I must plan my next move tomorrow. I am kinda bored of dowdy, concrete, late-USSR housing, so I dunno where I am going…

    Goodnight sweet PBers
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    edited June 2022
    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Tories down at 3 now on BF
    Hmmmmmmm that seems odd
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    LDs pleased with turnout outside Tiverton but worried by turnout in Tiverton.

    I would have thought as the biggest town Tiverton would be the LDs best area in the constituency

    https://twitter.com/TheLibRadEcho/status/1540094454010417156?s=20&t=5M9ziSX2B_3QaSEUvl71Aw
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Wow. Tory MP just been called 'Quiet as a mouse' by Fiona Bruce.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Lynch showing the entire Shadow Cabinet how to do it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    edited June 2022

    10K is that what we are expecting?
    Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant.
    There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k.
    There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Newsnight reporting that the tories are expecting to lose T&H.

    Is this expectation management?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Andy_JS said:

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    And maybe not their doing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Andy_JS said:

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    Cock up. They didn't co-ordnate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    Andy_JS said:

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    It's all part of the plan! Keep Boris as PM and help maximise the Labour vote at the GE!

    :sunglasses:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    Heathener said:

    Just for the record, I've posted 10 times all evening and only 2 were with regard to Leon.

    I came on here for any by-election snippets and found myself defending Exeter, a city I know extremely well. I very rarely come on here at night. It's a bear pit.

    I just get rather weary of Leon's know-it-all postings when he really doesn't know as much as he appears to convey. Maybe if you were a good deal less definite Leon it might help. But I fear that treading gently with you is a lost cause. You are terribly aggressive and it puts me right off this site to be honest. No worries.

    But, yes, Exeter is a great city.

    You can always ignore the posters you don't like and chat with everyone else.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758

    The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.

    Surely it's not improbable that a random selection of the British publis would be hostile to a union leader and someone attempting to defend a union leader?
    And I know the QT audience isn't a random sample. But it shouldn't be surprising to hear a union leader getting a hostile reception.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Hmmmmmmm that seems odd
    HY is reporting turn out levels from key areas.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Heathener said:

    Newsnight reporting that the tories are expecting to lose T&H.

    Is this expectation management?

    Watt said they had long faces.

    So perhaps they have been told to wander around the count looking like losers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Foxy said:

    Add Stamford, Lincs to your list. Mrs Foxys parents used to live there and it is a beautiful old town, but not too expensive. It used to be the halfway stop overnight for the London to York route so is full of Georgian coaching inns and pubs. Burleigh House and Park are great to visit too. The train connection to London via Peterborough is good, there is a fair bit going on, and some lovely countryside around in Rutland and rural Northants.
    "Burleigh"??

    Dear god man.

    Burghley.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    Pro_Rata said:

    I think Labour will come in a bit under that and a 12% win would be fine. The Wakefield East ward swung wildly (27% Con to Lab) from 2021 to 2022, Con fielded an Asian candidate in 2021 and squeaked it, Lab fielded an Asian candidate in 2022 and got a 52% majority. In the by election, notwithstanding a disgraced Asian ex MP, the Tories are fielding another Asian candidate and it will be worth a few votes. That 1 (of 6) ward contributed 4.5% of the overall 11% LE swing.

    Must admit, I gave up with T&H locals, translating County wards back to the District ones was too much, especially as the Tories looked pretty untouched and the only vaguely interesting question was LD and Lab relative position - so didn't look too relevant to the BE dynamic.

    There is a map website on which you can overlay county and districts, but I didn't go for it.
    When I say under, it's possible Labour will have a slightly higher vote %, but a slightly lower lead.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    TOPPING said:

    "Burleigh"??

    Dear god man.

    Burghley.
    You can see it from the train!
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,157
    Lab gain in Harlow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Andy_JS said:

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.

    They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    It was a wapentake.
    Like Makerfield. Which was a hundred.
    I quite like these ancient names. They should be brought back.
    Not Westmorland and Furness. But Westmorland and Lonsdale.
    Going back further Elmet.
    Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

    Anachronisms like this hurt no-one and should be cherished, not rationalised away.

    Leicester Fosse, not Leicester City.
    Hilton Park services, not Birmingham North.
    Letters, rather than numbers, on the back of the Bristol (IIRC) rugby shirts.
    And so on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    Cookie said:

    Surely it's not improbable that a random selection of the British publis would be hostile to a union leader and someone attempting to defend a union leader?
    And I know the QT audience isn't a random sample. But it shouldn't be surprising to hear a union leader getting a hostile reception.
    The audience seem more hostile than the polling has suggested.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Cookie said:

    Surely it's not improbable that a random selection of the British publis would be hostile to a union leader and someone attempting to defend a
    union leader?
    And I know the QT audience isn't a
    random sample. But it shouldn't be surprising to hear a union leader
    getting a hostile reception.
    Yes the BBC is socially left wing but economically right wing basically Blairite

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    micktrain said:



    Regardless of what happens to Johnson I think much of the red wall is now lost

    Nonsense. MRP showed a more or less uniform swing across all marginals. The red wall is no more or less vulnerable than other marginals. Tbh they might be slightly better for the Tories at the next election than other marginals still because the Lib Dem vote for Labour to squeeze is very low
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Andy_JS said:

    You can always ignore the posters you don't like and chat with everyone else.
    Yeah. I shouldn't have joined in about Exeter. It's a great city with varied and intriguing mixtures of architecture, including the 1950's parts of the High St. Juxtaposed against Princeshay you have the Roman walls and mediaeval underground passages: amazing! It's a mishmash and I like that. But most of all I like the vibe. It's not sterile but full of life. I was there last Saturday and there were all manner of live musicians, including full on rock bands, playing in the streets. Just great.

    Anyway, our eyes are elsewhere in Devon and in Wakefield and that's why I've popped on here though I doubt I shall stay awake.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant.
    There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k.
    There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
    “ Percentage is far more relevant.‘
    Explain it to me.

    Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.

    Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    Cookie said:

    Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

    Anachronisms like this hurt no-one and should be cherished, not rationalised away.

    Leicester Fosse, not Leicester City.
    Hilton Park services, not Birmingham North.
    Letters, rather than numbers, on the back of the Bristol (IIRC) rugby shirts.
    And so on.
    Bring back Small Heath Alliance!
    Leicester RU used to have letters too ISTR.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,652

    Unfortunately, looks like the railcard area ends at Bedwyn along the GWR Reading to Exeter route.
    Ah! Any idea what (if anything) the grey on the map means?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    First ballot boxes open in Tiverton and Honiton and both LD and Tory tellers report it is neck and neck

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1540096426495148032?s=20&t=YS1ctdBUZBsf6UNPKk4HrA
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516

    The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.

    Rachel Maclean.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    There's no way we should have a supranational court overruling parliament. The only reason people broadly on the left like it at the moment is because it's making decisions they like.
    If it was making decisions like SCOTUS I doubt that support would last too long.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516
    carnforth said:

    Ah! Any idea what (if anything) the grey on the map means?

    Probably just a "border" to the white area. Note that there is a lack of stations.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    slade said:

    Lab gain in Harlow.

    How many Hor deouvres we expecting Slade.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    First ballot boxes open in Tiverton and Honiton and both LD and Tory tellers report it is neck and neck

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1540096426495148032?s=20&t=YS1ctdBUZBsf6UNPKk4HrA

    Only useful if we know if its from a more LD friendly bit of the constituency or a true blue village location
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,758
    Anyway, a foregone conclusion and another foregone conclusion. It could have been slightly different had a few more rebels been mustered a fortnight ago, and politics has to me felt flat since then. I shall stick around no longer, but will go and see if the idiot ginger cat can be enticed in with a laser pointer and end the day on a high by drifting off to sleep cherishing the words 'Wapentake of Langbaurgh'... Good night all.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.

    BBC have rigged audience I think


    Rachel Maclean.

This discussion has been closed.