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The June 23rd by-elections – what happened at GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2022
    malcolmg said:

    Pay the money you borrowed and stop whining. You either benefitted with a good job of you leave the poor to pick up your tab for years pissing it up at uni wasting pensioners hard earned pittance. Stop blaming other people for your uselessness
    LOL! Morning Malc You tell the whippersnappers! :D
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,207

    They often have external moderators though.
    And until we reach some future paradise where all universities are equal, we should stop lying about it.

    I recall the screaming when John Major announced that various stats on hospitals would be published - it was The End Of The NHS Part XXXXCVII. All the surgeons were going to resign, for example….

    How many of the scandals uncovered since would have been successfully hidden without that?

    The first step to doing something is recognising there is a difference and quantifying it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Good morning PB, happy by elections day.

    Polling is "brisk" I'm sure...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB, happy by elections day.

    Polling is "brisk" I'm sure...

    Tories at 3.5 for T&H.

    I could cash out now and win a stunning 87p, but I am in for the prize of a curry. :smiley:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114
    Thursday’s #Rwanda #RwandaDeportation @standardnews #BorisJohnson #cartoon https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1539908632103501824/photo/1


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB, happy by elections day.

    Polling is "brisk" I'm sure...

    Sluggish in the poorer parts of both im sure, just to hammer home the 'disinterested scum' message. The well to do though, always brisk and full of change and hope
    Morning by-people
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Pulpstar said:

    Biden is now the most unpopular US president since approval started being measured (Truman onward) at this point (day 519) in his presidency.

    Gas prices, I suppose. $5 a gallon shock horror. I'm increasingly fond of my betting position that WH24 will feature neither Biden nor Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Pulpstar said:

    Biden is now the most unpopular US president since approval started being measured (Truman onward) at this point (day 519) in his presidency.

    Well, i suppose, looking for the bright side, continuing at these levels will make it easier for the wider party to "persuade" him he is too old to run in 2024.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    He is very impressive. Articulate, calm, with a touch of humour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    I see Carrie has been dragged to Rwanda.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114
    ROFLMAO

    Ministers are becoming increasingly concerned about the danger of looking like a government that promises the world but doesn’t deliver. ‘It’s a critique we need to be very careful about,’ admits one of them https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/british-politics-is-stuck
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    I see Carrie has been dragged to Rwanda.

    Probably told it was a Safari holiday...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    Good morning PB

    Travel question, maybe for @Sandpit

    How horrible is the UAE at this time of year? Can you even go out during the day? Is it possible to swim or simply too hot?

    TA!
  • Thank you for your kind words yesterday. I hope you are keeping well.
    I'm well thanks. I'll be better when I've found myself a job.. I have to head off on one of my fun bus journeys to the Job Centre today, and it's not even nice weather for the hour and a half I have to wait in Avebury. I'm getting rather excited about going to see Diana Ross tomorrow, and the AmEx VIP lounge at the O2 - rather a contrast to the Devizes Job Centre!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Gas prices, I suppose. $5 a gallon shock horror. I'm increasingly fond of my betting position that WH24 will feature neither Biden nor Trump.
    His figures have been going south since Afghanistan. He's Carter without the peanuts. Hopeless imbecile.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,298
    ...

    If Johnson goes it changes the dynamic - but if both leaders stay till the election I think Labour wins by 5 or six points, forms stable government with libdems.

    I think the die is already cast on that one, not much chance of this Johnson government getting swingback against a centrist Labour Party. As HY says, Starmer has led on best PM like no labour LOTO since Blair.

    Can they get rid of Johnson? Do enough of them even want to - a huge mistake is thinking it only needs a few switchers on top the 148, truth is the 148 can go down more likely than up the more we enter general election territory. Do candidates like Mourdant want to own the fag end of 14 years in power and a likely defeat?

    If I actually thought you genuine poster Pete, trying to help PB come to right conclusions I would say relax, it’s going okay for change of government - but I don’t think you are genuine I think you have an agenda.
    Please yourself.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Predictions FWIW:

    Wakefield (Lab gain)
    Lab 47%
    Con 31%
    Green 7%
    Yorks 4%
    LD 4%
    Others 7%

    T&H (Con hold)
    Con 46%
    LD 45%
    Lab 4%
    RefUk 2%
    Others 3%

    T&H could either way I guess, but I think there's been value in the Tories holding throughout, not that I bet any more.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    Cyclefree said:

    He is very impressive. Articulate, calm, with a touch of humour.
    I will vote for that!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    Good morning PB

    Travel question, maybe for @Sandpit

    How horrible is the UAE at this time of year? Can you even go out during the day? Is it possible to swim or simply too hot?

    TA!

    Apologies for not being Sandpit, but we went to Fujairah in June a few years ago. V hot but not so much that it stopped us from doing anything. I can remember scuttling to and from swimming pool to sea because the pavement and sand was unbelievably hot. Decent snorkelling. We didn't think much of Dubai itself, but that's just us.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Do you mean the tone of his voice? Agree it has a touch of the Starmers, but unlike poor old Keir, Andy is usually good value for content.
    Touch of Clint Eastwood there imo but with more fragrant politics. I've never had much difficulty imagining Andy with a poncho and a week of stubble, walking slowly out of town, passing the undertaker and going, "my mistake - FOUR coffins."

    Whereas Tim was just the perfect embodiment of Middle England. A comforting figure.

    Big fan of both.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Yes, because I'm a sentient human who has principles and thinks about why I should vote. Those principles generally align with the Tories more, but if they don't, then the Tories don't deserve my vote.

    I don't just vote for a monkey with a blue rosette, and I don't put party before country.

    Oh, and don't forget, you lost in 2001. 😕
    Still proves you wrong when you said 'I despise Labour' given you even voted for Labour at the 2001 general election
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    Dura_Ace said:

    ML laying waste to dickhead tories and media types is definitely cutting through.
    Not the hardest job in the world...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVYA3oTG8fg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Good morning PB

    Travel question, maybe for @Sandpit

    How horrible is the UAE at this time of year? Can you even go out during the day? Is it possible to swim or simply too hot?

    TA!

    It’s horrible!

    Currrently 45ºC or thereabouts, and so humid that your sunglasses steam up as you move from the air conditioning to outside.

    It’s banned for people to work outside between 12:30 and 4pm.

    My wife will get up at 5am to go swimming in the sea at first light, you don’t want to leave it much later.

    You don’t really want to be any further south than you were in Armenia, at this time of year.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Ghedebrav said:

    Predictions FWIW:

    Wakefield (Lab gain)
    Lab 47%
    Con 31%
    Green 7%
    Yorks 4%
    LD 4%
    Others 7%

    T&H (Con hold)
    Con 46%
    LD 45%
    Lab 4%
    RefUk 2%
    Others 3%

    T&H could either way I guess, but I think there's been value in the Tories holding throughout, not that I bet any more.

    That T&H result would give us a smiling Big Dog in the morning...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    Latham out. NZ one down!

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    It’s Rayner. She confuses Boris. Not just with her Basic Instinct shtick

    A white British working class single mum with a tough background. She’s Mick Lynch with a growler. She is exactly what Labour needs to seize the Red Wall and discombobulate the Tories, as any attacks on her will appear misogynist/classist

    Yes OK she will lose a few snobbish petit bourgeois voters in Remainia, Labour will probably lose them anyway
    lol "Mick Lynch with a growler" - superb.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    GIN1138 said:

    That T&H result would give us a smiling Big Dog in the morning...
    He'd be making hay with a lost Lab deposit as well (unlikely maybe but far from impossible).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    Sandpit said:

    It’s horrible!

    Currrently 45ºC or thereabouts, and so humid that your sunglasses steam up as you move from the air conditioning to outside.

    It’s banned for people to work outside between 12:30 and 4pm.

    My wife will get up at 5am to go swimming in the sea at first light, you don’t want to leave it much later.

    You don’t really want to be any further south than you were in Armenia, at this time of year.
    Ah, shit. At least I know now. Thanks! That was my impression - just too damn hot to do anything. And I like heat (but I don’t like 45C heat)

    Have to replan. I need to get to a proper international travel hub within striking distance of Tbilisi (where I am now) to do some essential housekeeping: send luggage home, buy some kit, etc

    Perhaps Istanbul or Tel Aviv…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Not this. A maths degree from Southbank should be the same as one from Cambridge. That is why we have external examiners. If it isn't, for non-maths reasons, that is because Cambridge's higher reputation and network effects. Take Boris. He got his first job through family connections and after he was sacked, got a better one through connections made at Oxford. Does that mean an Oxford Classics degree is better than a Southbank Classics degree or might there be something else going on?
    Southbank doesn't do Maths, closest course it does is accountancy and finance
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    edited June 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    He is very impressive. Articulate, calm, with a touch of humour.
    I don't want to be as sweeping as to say he's captured the mood of the nation, but he's certainly captured the mood of a fair swathe of it.

    People fed up of their standard of living being continually chipped away at, being told they're selfish for wanting a pay rise, decent conditions at work, or even a decent standard of living.

    A government completely out of touch with the reality of soaring food prices, double digit percentage rises at the pump monthly, taxes up again.

    And so on, and so forth. People are fed up of it. Whatever the mood of the nation is, Mick Lynch is a lot closer to it than anyone in the Conservative party, or, apparently, the national media.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Leon said:

    It’s Rayner. She confuses Boris. Not just with her Basic Instinct shtick

    A white British working class single mum with a tough background. She’s Mick Lynch with a growler. She is exactly what Labour needs to seize the Red Wall and discombobulate the Tories, as any attacks on her will appear misogynist/classist

    Yes OK she will lose a few snobbish petit bourgeois voters in Remainia, Labour will probably lose them anyway
    Rayner is just Corbyn in a skirt but a bit more patriotic.

    Streeting would be far better but as Starmer leads on preferred PM anyway he is going nowhere unless he is fined (but then so would Rayner be)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    It’s Rayner. She confuses Boris. Not just with her Basic Instinct shtick

    A white British working class single mum with a tough background. She’s Mick Lynch with a growler. She is exactly what Labour needs to seize the Red Wall and discombobulate the Tories, as any attacks on her will appear misogynist/classist

    Yes OK she will lose a few snobbish petit bourgeois voters in Remainia, Labour will probably lose them anyway
    I agree. Perhaps not so much the colourful Lynch comparison, maybe more Prescott with a brain. I can see senior Tories tying themselves in all sorts of knots as their prejudices leak out.

    No doubt that Boris would no-show the election debates if she was in post though :/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Leon said:

    Ah, shit. At least I know now. Thanks! That was my impression - just too damn hot to do anything. And I like heat (but I don’t like 45C heat)

    Have to replan. I need to get to a proper international travel hub within striking distance of Tbilisi (where I am now) to do some essential housekeeping: send luggage home, buy some kit, etc

    Perhaps Istanbul or Tel Aviv…
    Tehran. Unless that's too edgy for you.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Ah, shit. At least I know now. Thanks! That was my impression - just too damn hot to do anything. And I like heat (but I don’t like 45C heat)

    Have to replan. I need to get to a proper international travel hub within striking distance of Tbilisi (where I am now) to do some essential housekeeping: send luggage home, buy some kit, etc

    Perhaps Istanbul or Tel Aviv…
    It’s pretty horrible unless you just want to lie on the beach in the morning. Every year a bunch of British tourists turn up in the summer, becuase the 5* resort hotel was £100 a night instead of £500, and have a terrible time of it.

    There’s lots of indoor things to do, huge malls with theme parks and ski slopes, but everyone is trying to stay out of the sun in the summer.

    Outside of the big cities the weather can be a little better, less humid, but there’s nothing to do.

    That said, it’s a big city and you can get pretty much anything done here in terms of admin tasks and buying stuff - we get all the cheap Chinese tat, as well as the international brands. Getting around is easy and everysone speaks English.

    Istanbul is nice, people from here are going there on holiday at the moment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2022

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    3m
    Record Con➝Lib/Dem by-election swings:

    Christchurch 1993 35%
    N Shropshire 2021 34%
    Sutton & Cheam 1972 33%
    Newbury 1993 28%
    Orpington 1962 26%

    2/2

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1539882327995826181

    Interesting to note that four out of five of those were followed by Conservatives losing the next election (it might be five out of five with N Shropshire but we don't know yet...)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,515
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Southbank doesn't do Maths, closest course it does is accountancy and finance
    Accountancy and Finance is as close to maths as history or art. In my degree the only actual real numbers encountered were '0' and '1'. You come across a lot of numbers in Accountancy and Finance.

    Maths is not arithmetic and yes I know you can have some more complex stuff in accountancy, but they aren't the same.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    HYUFD said:

    Rayner is just Corbyn in a skirt but a bit more patriotic.

    Streeting would be far better but as Starmer leads on preferred PM anyway he is going nowhere unless he is fined (but then so would Rayner be)
    The country rather liked Jeremy Corbyn, he nearly won in 2017. By 2019 the UK had worked out that Corbyn is a Marxist traitor, so he was less popular

    Rayner is not a Marxist traitor. And meanwhile the Tories have adopted most of Corbyn’s economic polices, but just made the policies even more left wing

    It’s time we had a proper working class woman as PM. What a refreshing change it would be after all these posh/dull men
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kjh said:

    Accountancy and Finance is as close to maths as history or art. In my degree the only actual real numbers encountered were '0' and '1'. You come across a lot of numbers in Accountancy and Finance.

    Maths is not arithmetic.
    The imaginary numbers are much more fun than the real numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    kjh said:

    Accountancy and Finance is as close to maths as history or art. In my degree the only actual real numbers encountered were '0' and '1'. You come across a lot of numbers in Accountancy and Finance.

    Maths is not arithmetic.
    So then Southbank does not do Maths at all
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Pulpstar said:

    Universities don't have external examiners.
    When did that change? Again back in the 80s when I did Geology there was external assessment of all first and upper second degrees including compulsory vivas by another university.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Leon said:

    The country rather liked Jeremy Corbyn, he nearly won in 2017. By 2019 the UK had worked out that Corbyn is a Marxist traitor, so he was less popular

    Rayner is not a Marxist traitor. And meanwhile the Tories have adopted most of Corbyn’s economic polices, but just made the policies even more left wing

    It’s time we had a proper working class woman as PM. What a refreshing change it would be after all these posh/dull men
    I'd quite like to see a Rayner ministry. It certainly wouldn't be dull...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    HYUFD said:

    Rayner is just Corbyn in a skirt but a bit more patriotic.

    Streeting would be far better but as Starmer leads on preferred PM anyway he is going nowhere unless he is fined (but then so would Rayner be)
    If Rayner is Corbyn in a skirt that might at least explain the story about Johnson getting so distracted every time she uncrossed her legs...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    Tehran. Unless that's too edgy for you.
    I’d be there in a shot, despite lack of booze, but I need somewhere affordable connected to the world via couriers etc

    Tehran is not that
  • Sandpit said:

    The imaginary numbers are much more fun than the real numbers.
    Are we talking about accounting or maths there?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,189
    HYUFD said:

    Southbank doesn't do Maths, closest course it does is accountancy and finance
    Cambridge doesn't do Accountancy and Finance. Swings and roundabouts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    The country rather liked Jeremy Corbyn, he nearly won in 2017. By 2019 the UK had worked out that Corbyn is a Marxist traitor, so he was less popular

    Rayner is not a Marxist traitor. And meanwhile the Tories have adopted most of Corbyn’s economic polices, but just made the policies even more left wing

    It’s time we had a proper working class woman as PM. What a refreshing change it would be after all these posh/dull men
    They haven't introduced a wealth tax, a 50% top income tax rate and renationalised the public utilities and trains as Corbyn would have. Nor have they scrapped tuition fees.

    Rayner might win back a few redwall seats but she would lose seats in London, including to the LDs. In any case on current polls Labour is heading for most seats in a hung parliament under Starmer and thus winning back most of the redwall.

    It is seats Cameron gained from Labour in 2010 and seats in Scotland Labour need for a majority and Rayner would have less appeal there than say Streeting. The LDs would also be more reluctant to work with her than Starmer and Streeting in a hung parliament
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    Scott_xP said:

    Never fuck with a man named Mick Lynch. We know this in Ireland. The Mick Lynchs this world are born without fucks to give. They have no fuck glands. Do not approach a Mick Lynch without caution. Keep your head low and let the Mick Lynch know you mean no harm.
    https://twitter.com/NiecyOKeeffe/status/1539335139905486849
    And don't buy software companies off them, either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Just stuck my first bet of this cycle on the Tories

    Tories + 10,000 @ 2-9 vs Lab in Wakefield.

    I'm on the Lib Dems in Tiverton. One amusing possibility is that the LD margin of victory is greater than the Labour margin in Wakefield.

    Chesham LD Maj 8,028
    North Shropshire LD Maj 5,925
    Erdington Lab Maj 3,266
    Batley & Spen Lab Maj 326
    Old Bexley Lab Maj -4,478
    Hartlepool Lab Maj -6,940

    Labour's by-election performances have been mediocre this parliament, the Lib Dems stunning.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kjh said:

    Accountancy and Finance is as close to maths as history or art. In my degree the only actual real numbers encountered were '0' and '1'. You come across a lot of numbers in Accountancy and Finance.

    Maths is not arithmetic and yes I know you can have some more complex stuff in accountancy, but they aren't the same.
    All numbers are 0s and 1s
  • HYUFD said:

    Still proves you wrong when you said 'I despise Labour' given you even voted for Labour at the 2001 general election
    No, it doesn't, since I'm not the same person I was in 2001, Labour isn't the same as it was in 2001, Starmer is not Blair etc

    Time's change, and when they do, you need to change with them. Oh, and its possible to despise something, but think the alternative is even worse.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,515
    Sandpit said:

    The imaginary numbers are much more fun than the real numbers.
    Agree, but didn't do much with them either to be honest after A level. Tried to explain to someone who had no concept of numbers outside of the real numbers the idea of imaginary numbers. They were just gobsmacked. Couldn't get their head around it. Taught my son quadratic equations which lead to imaginary numbers when he was at junior school, but then he has become an awesome mathematician. I look at pages of logic equations he produces and I haven't a clue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Cambridge doesn't do Accountancy and Finance. Swings and roundabouts.
    It does now. You can do a Master of Accountancy and a Master of Finance course at Cambridge University business school

    https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/programmes/macc/

    https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/programmes/master-of-finance/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    They haven't introduced a wealth tax, a 50% top income tax rate and renationalised the public utilities and trains as Corbyn would have. Nor have they scrapped tuition fees.

    Rayner might win back a few redwall seats but she would lose seats in London, including to the LDs. In any case on current polls Labour is heading for most seats in a hung parliament under Starmer and thus winning back most of the redwall.

    It is seats Cameron gained from Labour in 2010 and seats in Scotland Labour need for a majority and Rayner would have less appeal there than say Streeting. The LDs would also be more reluctant to work with her than Starmer and Streeting in a hung parliament
    Why your last sentence? Rayner was a TU negotiator used to finding points of agreement. I would've thought she was ideally placed to work with other parties.
    Although I could understand the Lib Dems being reluctant to cooperate too closely with anybody given their dreadful experience with Cameron!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    edited June 2022
    OT. I keep hearing that costs in the UK are only increasing at the same rate as all other countries in Europe. So for an experiment I compared my costs in the UK and in France over the last six months and the difference is significant. French costs have barely moved. In the UK in some instances (for example electricity) they've almost doubled.

    So anyone working from home who wants lower bills a better lifestyle a view of the Mediterranian and no Boris Johnson you know what to do.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,515
    IshmaelZ said:

    All numbers are 0s and 1s
    ??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    No, it doesn't, since I'm not the same person I was in 2001, Labour isn't the same as it was in 2001, Starmer is not Blair etc

    Time's change, and when they do, you need to change with them. Oh, and its possible to despise something, but think the alternative is even worse.
    Nonetheless 31% of the electorate voted Tory in 2001 ie almost a third and are thus more anti Labour than you
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2022

    No, it doesn't, since I'm not the same person I was in 2001, Labour isn't the same as it was in 2001, Starmer is not Blair etc

    Time's change, and when they do, you need to change with them. Oh, and its possible to despise something, but think the alternative is even worse.
    I voted Lab in 97 but in 2001 I could see the warning signs that all the power was turning Tone's head so I sat on my hands.

    In 2005 I went for the Lib-Dems (Iraq) and have voted Con in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections (as well as NO to AV and LEAVE)

    Think I have a pretty good record of picking the winning side there lol! ;)

    But it's true. I think increasingly people will change their voting patterns from election to election depending on the circumstances of the day. Someone like @HYUFD who will vote for "the party" come what may is increasingly the exception to the norm... As the old left/right divide has broken down post 1989 people are much more expendable with their votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Roger said:

    OT. I keep hearing that costs in the UK are only doing the same as all other countries in Europe. So for an experimet I compared my costs in the UK and in France over the last six months and the difference is significant. French costs have barely moved. In the UK in some instances (for example electricity) they've almost doubled.

    So anyone working from home who wants lower bills a better lifestyle a view of the Mediterranian and no Boris Johnson you know what to do.

    France is the anomaly in Europe, relying as they do on nuclear power for most of their domestic electricity needs. Petrol is still €2 a litre though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited June 2022

    His figures have been going south since Afghanistan. He's Carter without the peanuts. Hopeless imbecile.
    Bit strong imo. He was right to exit Afghanistan - although it was bungled - and he's handling Ukraine pretty well. As for the economy, it's a myth to think whoever is President has much influence on it. Its long term health is mainly to do with macro forces above and beyond.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    IshmaelZ said:

    All numbers are 0s and 1s
    There are 10 types of people - those who understand binary, and those who don’t.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096

    Irony alert. Almost certainly the least intelligent poster on PB complains about the intelligence of others. I completely agree with @NickPalmer, this bullying unpleasant and abusive little man should be hit with the ban hammer.
    Gammon boy gets puffed up and makes an appearance. Go spend some of your job seekers allowance on sweeties shit for brains


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    edited June 2022
    kjh said:

    ??
    There are two sorts of people; those who understand binary notation and……


    Apologies. Someone has posted this earlier and better!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Roger said:

    OT. I keep hearing that costs in the UK are only increasing at the same rate as all other countries in Europe. So for an experiment I compared my costs in the UK and in France over the last six months and the difference is significant. French costs have barely moved. In the UK in some instances (for example electricity) they've almost doubled.

    So anyone working from home who wants lower bills a better lifestyle a view of the Mediterranian and no Boris Johnson you know what to do.

    Are you offering to put us all up in your 157 bedroom mansion overlooking the Cote d'Azur Rog? :D
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    JonWC said:

    They do.

    My wife is an academic. They have to get an external in to make sure their finals are up to snuff. If you do a PhD one of your viva examiners will be external.
    Good, glad you explained that. Otherwise I'd be wondering what this very eminent prof from another uni was doing in my doctoral examination at all, let alone asking all sorts of annoying questions and putting his finger unerringly on what I had feared was the one weak spot in my quantitative analysis. Or why I wasted chunks of my life reading other students' more or less coherent lucubrations and then travelling across the rail network to meet them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,189
    Are ID cards needed for today's by-elections? When does the Elections Act 2022 apply?
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/revealed-tories-spending-c2-a335-million-on-controversial-voter-id-cards/ar-AAYHzp7
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,920
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    All numbers are 0s and 1s
    π?

    or any other irrational number...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,258
    Carnyx said:

    Er. *i* would beg to differ.
    Get real :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited June 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Good, glad you explained that. Otherwise I'd be wondering what this very eminent prof from another uni was doing in my doctoral examination at all, let alone asking all sorts of annoying questions and putting his finger unerringly on what I had feared was the one weak spot in my quantitative analysis. Or why I wasted chunks of my life reading other students' more or less coherent lucubrations and then travelling across the rail network to meet them.
    OK Looks like they do - but seems all written undergrad exams are internal which is very different to A-levels.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    ...

    Please yourself.
    Your agenda's the same as mine, I think. Johnson out, Tories held to account for inflicting him upon us.

    As for Starmer, I'm still onboard but I do want him to unbutton his shirt and preferably his flies too. I fear he is conflating "win from the centre" with "must not on any account say something interesting."

    I think this explains some of the lovefest for Mick Lynch.
  • HYUFD said:

    Nonetheless 31% of the electorate voted Tory in 2001 ie almost a third and are thus more anti Labour than you
    Wrong figure to use, 31% of 18 year olds didn't vote Tory in 2001.

    Some people might be more partisan, I don't dispute that.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    HYUFD said:

    Nonetheless 31% of the electorate voted Tory in 2001 ie almost a third and are thus more anti Labour than you
    What if some of those individuals voted Labour in 2005, are they more or less Tory than Bart?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    69-1 for the Tories in Wakefield isn't the worst long odds bet out there I think. In for £3 on that one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    TOPPING said:

    Don't give an inch, Malc.
    I have to give credit where due Topping , I can have a perfectly sensible and intelligent conversation with the likes of yourself and some other like people.
    However we seem to have lots of spotty riffraff and nasty Tory hasbeens around nowadays where it is pointless trying to talk intelligently.
    I will continue to dole out oppribrium to the riffraff and nasties.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    .
    Leon said:

    The country rather liked Jeremy Corbyn, he nearly won in 2017. By 2019 the UK had worked out that Corbyn is a Marxist traitor, so he was less popular

    Rayner is not a Marxist traitor. And meanwhile the Tories have adopted most of Corbyn’s economic polices, but just made the policies even more left wing

    It’s time we had a proper working class woman as PM. What a refreshing change it would be after all these posh/dull men
    Rayner would do fine if she were leader, I think.
    Though the Lynch comparison is a bit off - she's smarter than many give her credit, but nowhere near as quick in arguments as he is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    OnboardG1 said:

    Barty, I can’t stand your ideology, but I do admire your principles.
    He changes them more often than his panties.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Leon said:

    I’d be there in a shot, despite lack of booze, but I need somewhere affordable connected to the world via couriers etc

    Tehran is not that
    DHL works in Iran. I know because my mate has a Zamyad Z24 (lucky bastard) and we had to get some bits for it to fix it after an accident.

    If you get the full Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe treatment and get locked up then Fizzy Lizzy will get you out (probably) and you can write an eBay version of Man is Wolf to Man.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2022
    malcolmg said:

    we seem to have lots of spotty riffraff and nasty Tory hasbeens around nowadays...

    Plus ca change... ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    2h
    Political expediency and economic reality are about to collide in the most painful way for Boris Johnson and his government. It is not hyperbole to say this feels like an emergency.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1539879128937234433
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Dura_Ace said:

    DHL works in Iran. I know because my mate has a Zamyad Z24 (lucky bastard) and we had to get some bits for it to fix it after an accident.

    If you get the full Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe treatment and get locked up then Fizzy Lizzy will get you out (probably) and you can write an eBay version of Man is Wolf to Man.
    I really would not be visiting Teheran as someone with a British passport who writes for British newspapers, even ones as innocent as The Flint Knapper's Gazette, even if it does have DHL there.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    2h
    Political expediency and economic reality are about to collide in the most painful way for Boris Johnson and his government. It is not hyperbole to say this feels like an emergency.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1539879128937234433

    Um.

    Is that code for "I miss being able to generate a faux emergency by allegation, as I used to do"?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2022

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    2h
    Political expediency and economic reality are about to collide in the most painful way for Boris Johnson and his government. It is not hyperbole to say this feels like an emergency.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1539879128937234433

    Well you can guarantee that if Peston predicts it the reverse will happen so hopefully we're almost over the worst of the "emergency"...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    ‘Look, I’ll go to Rwanda but there will be absolutely no Ugandan discussions.’
    Irrespective of discussions of any type, unlesws perhaps the old style "discussion" of a meal and drink one gets in old writers, did anyone suggest Rwanda as a holiday spot for Leon? It'd be interesting to see what he makes of it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited June 2022
    Taz said:
    The last Kantor was a bit of an outlier giving Labour a massive 6 lead. But on the other hand the other pollsters had bigger gaps too at that time, pre vonc.

    They are certainly the pollster most favourable to Tories, yet still doesn’t help them get above 34 here.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Well you guarantee that if Peston predicts it the reverse will happen so hopefully we're almost over the worst of the "emergency"...
    Peston and Ambrose Evans Pritchard, the two most outstanding contraindicators of our age.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    Pulpstar said:

    69-1 for the Tories in Wakefield isn't the worst long odds bet out there I think. In for £3 on that one.

    I think:
    a) Labour will win Wakefield,
    b) It will be a very disappointing result for them, with a small majority and a modest swing.
    c) Hope I'm wrong.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Cyclefree said:

    I really would not be visiting Teheran as someone with a British passport who writes for British newspapers, even ones as innocent as The Flint Knapper's Gazette, even if it does have DHL there.
    You're not Our Guy though. He's like a non-CIA version of Bourdain.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited June 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    OK Looks like they do - but seems all written undergrad exams are internal which is very different to A-levels.
    External examiners do exist even for inc ourse work - validating syllabi and marking levels - as well as finals exams. This taken at random:

    https://www.dmu.ac.uk/about-dmu/quality-management-and-policy/academic-quality/external-examining/external-examining-homepage.aspx

    https://www.dmu.ac.uk/documents/about-dmu-documents/quality-management-and-policy/academic-quality/external-examiners/guide-external-examining-dmu.pdf
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Irony alert. Almost certainly the least intelligent poster on PB complains about the intelligence of others. I completely agree with @NickPalmer, this bullying unpleasant and abusive little man should be hit with the ban hammer.
    Malcolm is indeed a deliberately nasty persona on here: out to antagonise everyone with a bullying and abusive demeanour which some mistake for humour.

    Of course he should put in the sin bin for a couple of weeks but I'm not holding my breath.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    The last Kantor was a bit of an outlier giving Labour a massive 6 lead. But on the other hand the other pollsters had bigger gaps too at that time, pre vonc.
    6-7% was about the average poll lead for Labour in May?

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    This latest poll, giving Labour a 2% lead looks the outlier...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I think:
    a) Labour will win Wakefield,
    b) It will be a very disappointing result for them, with a small majority and a modest swing.
    c) Hope I'm wrong.
    My feeling is that Mr Herdson will keep his deposit, and take enough Tory votes to let Labour win, but that the Lab share itself won’t be much higher than the 40% they got in the GE.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725
    Selebian said:

    Few people got Lynched the last few days, it seems...

    Hadn't seen Lynch in action, so did a quick Google, which got me to this:
    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1539166310227116034 posted from Kay Burley's official account
    Agency rail workers will be stopped at picket lines and asked not to cross.
    RMT union's General Secretary Mick Lynch got a little flustered explaining why...


    I'd have to say, to my viewing he's cool as a cucumber and if anyone is getting flustered it's Burley.
    I'd missed it all, too, before the above links.

    He's a natural performer in front of a camera. Touch of the young Michael Caine/Bob Hoskins (far more than just the accent).
This discussion has been closed.