politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip a

System · May 2013

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option which, it is argued, has compressed the shares for Farage’s party being reported by the UK’s most prolific political pollster.

Read the full story here

Millsy · May 2013

When was this change brought in? There was a 3 point uplift towards end of April, which may or may not have been all the local election coverage

Kevin_R_Lohse · May 2013

YouGove could still keep the survey to a reasonable length by dropping the Lib Dems to,"some other party". status.

MikeSmithson · May 2013

I have no idea about the timing or whether this is simply a test.

Millsy · May 2013

Here's Ukip's VI from YouGov polls (last fieldwork date)

23/04/13 12
24/04/13 11
25/04/13 12
26/04/13 11
29/04/13 14
30/04/13 14
01/05/13 13
02/05/13 10
03/05/13 12
07/05/13 16
08/05/13 17
09/05/13 14
10/05/13 16
13/05/13 14
14/05/13 15

Plato · May 2013

Kevin_R_Lohse said:
YouGov could still keep the survey to a reasonable length by dropping the Lib Dems to,"some other party". status.

LOL

Mick_Pork · May 2013

James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 49m

Iain Martin: 'I am a Eurosceptic and I know a Tory shambles when I see one. This is definitely a Tory shambles.' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10056551/Cameron-and-his-party-conspire-to-create-a-European-shambles.html …

LOL

Banging on about Europe.
The master strategy even a serial labour voting floating voter would approve of. ;^ )

[Deleted User] · May 2013

Lol - Pork and tim in double act "banging on about europe" in sweet harmony!

Millsy · May 2013

Ed Miliband must get 'match fit', says New Labour group

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22502982

Progress used Saturday's conference to launch its campaign for a Labour majority.

But first, You Gov polling guru Peter Kellner explained how much of a mountain they had to climb.

He compared Labour to a walker he met in the Himalayas who had turned up without doing any training.

Labour "has got to get match fit, it has got to prepare", he said.

He has produced research which suggests voters think Labour is "nice" but Ed Miliband is incapable of taking tough decisions.

Only one opposition party in 80 years has managed to win back power after one term, he argues, and on current form Mr Miliband is pretty unlikely to buck that trend.

The main problem for Mr Miliband is that there seems to be very few "Tory switchers" out there.

It is not like 1995, when Conservatives voters were coming over to Tony Blair's Labour in their thousands, particularly in the South of England.

Andrew Harrop, of the Fabian Society, suggested Mr Miliband's best hope was to cobble together some kind of majority from disaffected former Lib Dems, people who had never voted before and the tiny band of Tory switchers.

Roger · May 2013

This government is looking increasingly like John Major's in 1995. Apart from the absence of Tony Blair to seal the deal it's almost uncanny. The interesting question is what tactics should the Lib Dems adopt.....

Go down with the ship after fighting the Tories tooth and nail from within or take the principled stand of walking away on the grounds that they can't work with a party whose European ideology is suicidal for the country.

TGOHF · May 2013

Icm 34 / yg 40

Icm 18/ yg 15

Seems to be the Labour score yg has a problem with.

MrJones · May 2013

CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%

Tories could knock ten points off that New Labour score with a big Leveson style televised inquiry into how the grooming in 40+ New Labour constituencies was covered up for ten years.

Alanbrooke · May 2013

Roger said:
This government is looking increasingly like John Major's in 1995. Apart from the absence of Tony Blair to seal the deal it's almost uncanny. The interesting question is what tactics should the Lib Dems adopt.....

Go down with the ship after fighting the Tories tooth and nail from within or take the principled stand of walking away on the grounds that they can't work with a party whose European ideology is suicidal for the country.

If they parade Vince Cable in a leather thong I reckon that would be a vote switcher.

Plato · May 2013

I think this is a good move by YGov - it was getting silly given the results of the LEs.

Let's hope it's not a temporary experiment.

Alanbrooke · May 2013

tim said:
@politicshomeuk: Jeremy Hunt on whether he would vote in or out in an EU referendum: “I’m going to see what the choice is.” #daybreak

MODERATED.

Ed on the vote - wibble, wibble, fairness, now's not the time, maybe later, errr........

[Deleted User] · May 2013

On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

JosiasJessop · May 2013

French economy enters recession:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

What was Ed's take on Hollande?

“This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity and it matters to Britain. The tide is turning against an austerity approach. There needs to be a different way forward.”

There may be a need for a different way forward, but it ain't France's.

Roger · May 2013

@Alanbrooke

"If they parade Vince Cable in a leather thong I reckon that would be a vote switcher."

Do the Lib Dems really want to follow the rather tacky antics of Nigel Farage?

DaemonBarber · May 2013

Is there any data on where the UKIP identifiers are located? Are they mostly in traditional Tory strongholds or are there pockets in areas they have a chance of winning? Will the result of this be a dent in existing Tory majorities or will it split the right enough to let Lab/Lib in?

Or given the number of Lib/Lab switchers too, could the same sort of thing happen in Lab/Tory marginals?

Gut feel is that we could see a sizeable percentage at the GE but with very little overall effect.

Roger · May 2013

@Jessop

"French economy enters recession:"

I better remove my new Cote d'Azur breakfast photo and find something a little more austere

Blue_rog · May 2013

JosiasJessop said:
French economy enters recession:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

What was Ed's take on Hollande?

“This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity and it matters to Britain. The tide is turning against an austerity approach. There needs to be a different way forward.”

There may be a need for a different way forward, but it ain't France's.

From the same article.

A statement said this was partly to do with severe winter weather: "The German economy is only slowly picking up steam. The extreme winter weather played a role in this weak growth."

The wrong sort of snow?

foxinsoxuk · May 2013

Interesting figures from the College of Emergency Medicine on recruitment. For the last three years they have been unable to recruit enough trainees.

For the last three years they have had only half as many applicants as posts:
http://www.mmc.nhs.uk/specialty_training_landing_pag/specialty_training_in_sem.aspx

So Patricia Hewitts disastrous MMC reforms of 2006-7 come home to roost.

With less than 100 applicants for 198 posts, many must be unfilled and many more filled by lacklustre candidates. No wonder A and E is in crisis. These things arise from a history, not out of the blue.

Alanbrooke · May 2013

Roger said:
@Alanbrooke

"If they parade Vince Cable in a leather thong I reckon that would be a vote switcher."

Do the Lib Dems really want to follow the rather tacky antics of Nigel Farage?

Nigel's a beer and ciggies geezer, the LDs need something a little more high brow to attract voters of your calibre Roger.

Quincel · May 2013

Interesting, I did a YG poll a couple of days ago and UKIP weren't prompted. I wonder if they are testing both approaches to see the difference in VI.

JackW · May 2013

I've been trying to prompt Mrs Jack W to restrict her share of the retail shoe market to less than 20% gross for many years.

A bit like a Ukip parliamentary party in 2015 larger than one - No way Jimmy Choo, no way !!

JosiasJessop · May 2013

MrJones said:
CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%

Tories could knock ten points off that New Labour score with a big Leveson style televised inquiry into how the grooming in 40+ New Labour constituencies was covered up for ten years.

Yesterday's case wasn't in a Labour constituency or council (the council have the real power and responsibility to do things at this level). The county council was firmly Conservative from 2005 until the recent elections, and the county council run the police and social services. Hence the calls for the council chief executive to resign.

Oxford City council is Labour/Lib marginal, but AIUI they do not control the police or social services.

And there is only one Labour-held constituency in the county - Oxford East
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Oxfordshire

Personally, I think someone should resign from the council. It's been a massive failure.

(I got the composition of the council wrong a couple of months ago, so it's my turn to correct others)...

Alanbrooke · May 2013

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

tim said:
@politicshomeuk: Jeremy Hunt on whether he would vote in or out in an EU referendum: “I’m going to see what the choice is.” #daybreak

He'll be waiting on James Murdochs text.
Ed on the vote - wibble, wibble, fairness, now's not the time, maybe later, errr........
Yes Labours decision not to bang on obsessively about Europe could really damage them with the 4% of Labour/Lib Dem and women voters who rank the issue highly.

Keep telling yourself that, as has been pointed out several times "Europe" is simply a catch all phrase for wider dissatisfaction. Of course since labour have lost exactly 4% in the last ICM we can see if the issue has wider resonance with labour voters from here on.

SouthamObserver · May 2013

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

JosiasJessop · May 2013

Roger said:
@Jessop

"French economy enters recession:"

I better remove my new Cote d'Azur breakfast photo and find something a little more austere

Where's the 'like' button when I need it?

I could do a photo of a big breakfast from Tatties in Cambridge if you want austere. ;-)

DaemonBarber · May 2013

tim said:

DaemonBarber said:
Is there any data on where the UKIP identifiers are located? Are they mostly in traditional Tory strongholds or are there pockets in areas they have a chance of winning? Will the result of this be a dent in existing Tory majorities or will it split the right enough to let Lab/Lib in?

Or given the number of Lib/Lab switchers too, could the same sort of thing happen in Lab/Tory marginals?

Gut feel is that we could see a sizeable percentage at the GE but with very little overall effect.
UKIP on 21% in the South outside London in today's poll.

Thanks Tim,

So if this holds up into the GE, what effect do you think it will have?

JackW · May 2013

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

Certainly true Patrick in terms of vote share but of course it's bums on seats that really matter and in that respect Ukip enjoys a rather more mixed situation.

For the Euro election Ukip will be entitled to appropriate coverage but their general election coverage will be considerably more limited as their representation in the HoC is somewhat fewer than one MP.

TGOHF · May 2013

I should imagine rEd's "ability to make tough decisions" score will soar after he took a tough line on silly referendums.

JosiasJessop · May 2013

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

Absolutely. UKIP need strength in depth, from the very top to the local level. They need to be looking at the Lib Dem's organisation if they want a long-lived party.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.

Plato · May 2013

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

KIppers have Mr Nuttall who is ultra down-to-Earth and Diane who comes across extremely well - that seems more than enough talking heads to represent their various target demographics.

Alanbrooke · May 2013

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

tim said:

Alanbrooke said:

tim said:
@politicshomeuk: Jeremy Hunt on whether he would vote in or out in an EU referendum: “I’m going to see what the choice is.” #daybreak

He'll be waiting on James Murdochs text.
Ed on the vote - wibble, wibble, fairness, now's not the time, maybe later, errr........
Yes Labours decision not to bang on obsessively about Europe could really damage them with the 4% of Labour/Lib Dem and women voters who rank the issue highly.

Keep telling yourself that, as has been pointed out several times "Europe" is simply a catch all phrase for wider dissatisfaction. Of course since labour have lost exactly 4% in the last ICM we can see if the issue has wider resonance with labour voters from here on.

Then the Tories banging on about Europe is a winning strategy then.
You'll be urging them to carry on, after all it appeals to the PB Tory demographic so well.
And the PB Tories are so representative of the electorate.

In some ways yes, I'm enjoying the cat among the pigeons effect UKIP are having on the main political parties and how they can't quite figure out an angle to nail them. The Blues are all at sea, the LDs are paralysed and leaderless Labour are hoping that their vote isn't about to get eaten in to.

As for the PB meme, well really tim is any anorak on a blog typical ? The idea that you somehow represent a normal voter let alone a normal Labour one, is risible in the extreme.
But I do enjoy your mental contortions.

Roger · May 2013

@Alanbrooke

"Nigel's a beer and ciggies geezer, the LDs need something a little more high brow to attract voters of your calibre Roger. "

(I had a photo to accompany my Farage comment but good taste and fear of the PB sanctimony persuaded me to edit at the last minute)

DaemonBarber · May 2013

I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.

SouthamObserver · May 2013

Plato said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

KIppers have Mr Nuttall who is ultra down-to-Earth and Diane who comes across extremely well - that seems more than enough talking heads to represent their various target demographics.

They need to be properly available though and able to talk at a moment's notice. It would be interesting to know how big UKIP's PR and press operation is currently. For equal coverage during a GE they'll need people able to talk authoritatively on a wide range of subjects - the economy, welfare, education, the environment, transport and so on.

another_richard · May 2013

JosiasJessop said:
French economy enters recession:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

What was Ed's take on Hollande?

“This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity and it matters to Britain. The tide is turning against an austerity approach. There needs to be a different way forward.”

There may be a need for a different way forward, but it ain't France's.

Wiki reminds us of more of EdM's economic abilities:

"Gordon Brown appointed Miliband as Chairman of HM Treasury's Council of Economic Advisers as a replacement for Ed Balls, with specific responsibility for directing the UK's long-term economic planning"

Still when one inherits a fortune and gets given jobs by your father's friends then you don't get to learn any personal long-term economic planning.

Plato · May 2013

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.

For me the issue with the new Greenies leader is that she's a very pronounced Aussie accent - she doesn't *sound* like she comes from here at all so I tend to assume she's a pundit/pressure group bod not a party leader. She also doesn't have Ms Lucas' poise or school ma'am manner.

TBH, it'd be hard for anyone to best Ms Lucas as a media performer from that end of the political spectrum.

CarlottaVance · May 2013

I blame Osborne:

"Eurozone crisis live: France falls into triple-dip recession"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/15/eurozone-crisis-france-germany-recession-gdp

TGOHF · May 2013

Another Richard- it appears that red planned his property affairs very well in the long term from a fiscal perspective.

Plato · May 2013

SouthamObserver said:

Plato said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

KIppers have Mr Nuttall who is ultra down-to-Earth and Diane who comes across extremely well - that seems more than enough talking heads to represent their various target demographics.

They need to be properly available though and able to talk at a moment's notice. It would be interesting to know how big UKIP's PR and press operation is currently. For equal coverage during a GE they'll need people able to talk authoritatively on a wide range of subjects - the economy, welfare, education, the environment, transport and so on.

Their City/Finance spokesman was on the DP during the LEs - he was a lot more credible than most of the other Big Three bods who argued amongst themselves like bored husbands at a wedding.

I think you and others are underestimating how far the Kippers have come in terms of professionalising their media ops and campaigning. A Party doesn't get 150ish seats from a standing start by accident.

Roger · May 2013

@SweenyTodd
"And he needs a hair-cut."

Trying to drum up business?

JackW · May 2013

DaemonBarber said:
I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.

Despite your monicker you need to be careful on PB discussing matters hair related. Certain personages not entirely unrelated to our distinguished founder find folicular discussion to be a gross violation of site etiquette.

You may have got away with it this time and of course I never ever, ever .... well hardly ever broach the subject and only ever in the vaguest context !!

Phew !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Alanbrooke · May 2013

Roger said:
@Alanbrooke

"Nigel's a beer and ciggies geezer, the LDs need something a little more high brow to attract voters of your calibre Roger. "

(I had a photo to accompany my Farage comment but good taste and fear of the PB sanctimony persuaded me to edit at the last minute)

call it art and you'll get away with it, as for PB good taste in the words of Groucho Marx I don't want to belong to any club which would accept me as a member.

Blue_rog · May 2013

CarlottaVance said:
I blame Osborne:

"Eurozone crisis live: France falls into triple-dip recession"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/15/eurozone-crisis-france-germany-recession-gdp

Considering that the UK didn't even have a double dip recession, only the one the Labour party created, it certainly shows the impact of left wing policies on economies!

Plato · May 2013

JackW said:

DaemonBarber said:
I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.
Despite you monicker you need to be careful on PB discussing matters hair related. Certain personages not entirely unrelated to our distinguished founder find folicular discussion to be a gross violation of site etiquette.

Only a man whose avatar is a latter day Brian May could say that :^ O

JackW · May 2013

Plato said:

JackW said:

DaemonBarber said:
I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.
Despite you monicker you need to be careful on PB discussing matters hair related. Certain personages not entirely unrelated to our distinguished founder find folicular discussion to be a gross violation of site etiquette.

Only a man whose avatar is a latter day Brian May could say that :^ O

LOL.

I want to break free ....

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

Good morning, everyone.

FPT, Mr. Jones: yeah, I phrased that in a way that was clumsy, but hopefully the meaning came across.

Mr. Rog, you pessimist. I am quite sure Miliband and Balls could do for Britain what Hollande has done for France.

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

But Mr. W, do you want to live forever?

SouthamObserver · May 2013

tim said:
Anyone thinking Paul Nuttall is capable of discussing subjects other tha Europe and Immigration may like to watch this from last weeks Daily Politics

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDUQtwIwAg&url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_dm-H1MsFw&ei=1zGTUbzKJ6X80QX4o4GQBQ&usg=AFQjCNE5I-QF1V-HC8dXeR8dg7mK7yYzCg&sig2=_Pve5ON69JuKqf4LQxJwqw

That is going to become a problem for them. If I were one of the big 3 I would be arguing for UKIP parity. From a Labour/LD perspective the more UKIP can be portrayed as the Tories with nobs on the better.

MonikerDiCanio · May 2013

Has EdM disowned Hollande yet ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2313775/Frances-meltdown-stark-warning-wants-Red-Ed-Miliband-PM.html

EdM has form as a ruthless turncoat and fair weather friend.

anotherDave · May 2013

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

Absolutely. UKIP need strength in depth, from the very top to the local level. They need to be looking at the Lib Dem's organisation if they want a long-lived party.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.

One of the reasons Dr Lucas gave for standing down as leader, was to help raise the profile of another Green Party speaker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/9263728/Caroline-Lucas-to-step-down-as-Green-Party-leader.html

DaemonBarber · May 2013

Roger said:
@SweenyTodd
"And he needs a hair-cut."

Trying to drum up business?

Just showing entrepreneurial spirit.

DaemonBarber · May 2013

JackW said:

DaemonBarber said:
I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.
Despite your monicker you need to be careful on PB discussing matters hair related. Certain personages not entirely unrelated to our distinguished founder find folicular discussion to be a gross violation of site etiquette.

You may have got away with it this time and of course I never ever, ever .... well hardly ever broach the subject and only ever in the vaguest context !!

Phew !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How about pies? Can I talk about pies?

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

Mr. Barber, welcome to pb.com.

Just remember to sweep up the hair next time. We don't want another bloody mess, do we?

Plato · May 2013

DaemonBarber said:

Roger said:
@SweenyTodd
"And he needs a hair-cut."

Trying to drum up business?
Just showing entrepreneurial spirit.

LOL - where are the Like buttons when you need them?!

Neil · May 2013

anotherDave said:
One of the reasons Dr Lucas gave for standing down as leader, was to help raise the profile of another Green Party speaker.

I think she may have had someone other than the 4th placed candidate on the London Assembly list in mind though. Still, that's democracy for you.

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

F1: after a quiet period there's a lot of spam on the post-race thread, unfortunately. I hope this doesn't persist.

TGOHF · May 2013

The French economy appears to be covered in a Hollande daze.

Neil · May 2013

o/t - Some elements of the Tory party seem to be dragging their heels over expelling recently convicted Brian Coleman from the party. I mean why wouldnt they have had that all set up to go immediately? I cant think of anything that would help their fortunes in Barnet more than kicking him out.

DaemonBarber · May 2013

Plato said:

I think you and others are underestimating how far the Kippers have come in terms of professionalising their media ops and campaigning.

True, but I don't think they've come nearly far enough.
The website is horrible.

Have they finaly abandoned the Tomy - My First Party Branding mess of Bright Purple and Yellow that looked like Nigel knocked it up on Windows 95 using MS Word - WordArt?

Plato · May 2013

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

Absolutely. UKIP need strength in depth, from the very top to the local level. They need to be looking at the Lib Dem's organisation if they want a long-lived party.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.
One of the reasons Dr Lucas gave for standing down as leader, was to help raise the profile of another Green Party speaker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/9263728/Caroline-Lucas-to-step-down-as-Green-Party-leader.html

But look what happened - the Greenies chose someone who comes across as not British, reminds me of a Viz style social worker and has no gravitas compared to Ms Lucas. If Ms Lucas stood aside for someone else to make her look even better, she got the answer she wanted.

I can barely recall her name, yet have heard her half a dozen times - Jenny Something? Oh no, its Natalie Something - I had to Google her. Terrible name recognition for even an anorak like me.

CarlottaVance · May 2013

TGOHF said:
The French economy appears to be covered in a Hollande daze.

Austria : 0%, Czech: -0.8% Germany +0.1%

anotherDave · May 2013

DaemonBarber said:
Is there any data on where the UKIP identifiers are located? Are they mostly in traditional Tory strongholds or are there pockets in areas they have a chance of winning?

Crunching the May elections results has produced 14 UKIP target seats so far.

http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

http://stephentall.org/2013/05/14/where-ukip-won-or-almost-won-on-2nd-may-2013/

Plato · May 2013

DaemonBarber said:

Plato said:

I think you and others are underestimating how far the Kippers have come in terms of professionalising their media ops and campaigning.
True, but I don't think they've come nearly far enough.
The website is horrible.

Have they finaly abandoned the Tomy - My First Party Branding mess of Bright Purple and Yellow that looked like Nigel knocked it up on Windows 95 using MS Word - WordArt?

@MikeK is probably the man to know here as he mentioned this, IIRC - the Kipper site was hacked so they flung up v0.2 in 24hrs a few days ago.

It's a bit old hat techie-wise, but they're getting there.

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

Miss Vance, it's almost as if shackling together countries of varying size, prosperity and culture in a politically driven but economically deranged currency union isn't very clever.

Plato · May 2013

TGOHF said:
The French economy appears to be covered in a Hollande daze.

Likes.

Neil · May 2013

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Vance, it's almost as if shackling together countries of varying size, prosperity and culture in a politically driven but economically deranged currency union isn't very clever.

The Czech Republic isnt in the Eurozone and, along with the UK, is outside the fiscal compact too.

anotherDave · May 2013

Plato said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

Absolutely. UKIP need strength in depth, from the very top to the local level. They need to be looking at the Lib Dem's organisation if they want a long-lived party.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.
One of the reasons Dr Lucas gave for standing down as leader, was to help raise the profile of another Green Party speaker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/9263728/Caroline-Lucas-to-step-down-as-Green-Party-leader.html
But look what happened - the Greenies chose someone who comes across as not British, reminds me of a Viz style social worker and has no gravitas compared to Ms Lucas. If Ms Lucas stood aside for someone else to make her look even better, she got the answer she wanted.

I can barely recall her name, yet have heard her half a dozen times - Jenny Something? Oh no, its Natalie Something - I had to Google her. Terrible name recognition for even an anorak like me.

You don't like her, others might.

Dr Lucas was an MEP before she became an MP so she's been in the public eye a lot longer (I remember her best from Channel 4's "The E Word" series on the EU).

I'm sure the new leader is doing the standard current events programmes, but politics generally gets less coverage than cooking, or DIY on the telly.

JackW · May 2013

Morris_Dancer said:
But Mr. W, do you want to live forever?

Every birthday - another one bites the dust !

Financier · May 2013

Re: YouGov

Looking back over the last dozen+ polls, UKIP in London seems to have risen from a usual 8-10% to 10-15% in the last week.
Rest of the South has increased a little 14-18% to 18-20% whilst Midlands/Wales has risen from around 14% to 15-20%.
North has increased 10-14% to 12-15% and Scotland from 5-6% to 8%.

In the last few polls Greens have increased in London from 3-4% to 4-6% but need more polls to see if that increase stays. In the RoS they are steady at 3-4%.

JackW · May 2013

DaemonBarber said:

JackW said:

DaemonBarber said:
I don't like bringing things down to a trivial level, but I passed EdM in Waverley station recently and a couple of things struck me: how tall he is and how young he looks. Also how much he needs a hair-cut. Now his height should help him, but not so sure about his youth.

And he needs a hair-cut.
Despite your monicker you need to be careful on PB discussing matters hair related. Certain personages not entirely unrelated to our distinguished founder find folicular discussion to be a gross violation of site etiquette.

You may have got away with it this time and of course I never ever, ever .... well hardly ever broach the subject and only ever in the vaguest context !!

Phew !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How about pies? Can I talk about pies?

Pie-tastic !!

Alanbrooke · May 2013

Oil companies to be investigated for price fixing, is there any big corporate that earned it's profits fairly in the noughties ? And why did Labour have to knight all the CEOs ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/14/bp-shell-oil-price-rigging

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

Mr. Neil, oh I feel like a fool now. That being so, why aren't the Czechs being buoyed by the great prosperity and growth of those far larger eurozone nations that surround them?

Mr. W, it's a hard life.

Plato · May 2013

Financier said:
Re: YouGov

Looking back of the last dozen+ polls, UKIP in London seems to have risen from a usual 8-10% to 10-15% in the last week.
Rest of the South has increased a little 14-18% to 18-20% whilst Midlands/Wales has risen from around 14% to 15-20%.
North has increased 10-14% to 12-15% and Scotland from 5-6% to 8%.

In the last few polls Greens have increased in London from 3-4% to 4-6% but need more polls to see if that increase stays. In the RoS they are steady at 3-4%.

The *acceptability* of voting Kipper has really reached tipping point - its no longer seen as a fringe vote, but okay to talk about and endorse outside the comment section of the DTele.

I wonder if this has also greatly helped to increase their vote share as more people feel able to say "Yup, I did that too" - in the same way it became acceptable to say mass immigration was a problem in the run up to 2010.

I can't help feeling that the *brush it under the carpet* silent voter has spoken up and feeling emboldened.

anotherDave · May 2013

Plato said:

DaemonBarber said:

Plato said:

I think you and others are underestimating how far the Kippers have come in terms of professionalising their media ops and campaigning.
True, but I don't think they've come nearly far enough.
The website is horrible.

Have they finaly abandoned the Tomy - My First Party Branding mess of Bright Purple and Yellow that looked like Nigel knocked it up on Windows 95 using MS Word - WordArt?
@MikeK is probably the man to know here as he mentioned this, IIRC - the Kipper site was hacked so they flung up v0.2 in 24hrs a few days ago.

It's a bit old hat techie-wise, but they're getting there.

Their "DDoS" coincided with their best ever days for signing up new members, while they were being mentioned in the national news headlines following their local election performance.

I think is more likely to be a case of legitimate high traffic meeting a budget hosting package.

Their new website is pretty slow. But they could improve that by making minor changes.

Plato · May 2013

anotherDave said:

Plato said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:
On topic: This makes absolute sense. UKIP is polling well ahead of the LibDems and is massively out performing them in elections.

The BBC and other broadcasters should also give more time and at least equal space to UKIP in debates and on Question Time etc. They are here as a fact on the ground with a significant share of the national vote - so treat them as such.

UKIP need to find some spokesmen first. Farage can't be everywhere.

Absolutely. UKIP need strength in depth, from the very top to the local level. They need to be looking at the Lib Dem's organisation if they want a long-lived party.

It's the same problem the Greens have - they had Caroline Lucas as a great spokesperson, but aside from her, who is there? The new leader is absolutely anonymous wrt the media. I don't think I've ever seen her on TV, aside from one interview on a politics show.
One of the reasons Dr Lucas gave for standing down as leader, was to help raise the profile of another Green Party speaker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/green-party/9263728/Caroline-Lucas-to-step-down-as-Green-Party-leader.html
But look what happened - the Greenies chose someone who comes across as not British, reminds me of a Viz style social worker and has no gravitas compared to Ms Lucas. If Ms Lucas stood aside for someone else to make her look even better, she got the answer she wanted.

I can barely recall her name, yet have heard her half a dozen times - Jenny Something? Oh no, its Natalie Something - I had to Google her. Terrible name recognition for even an anorak like me.
You don't like her, others might.

Dr Lucas was an MEP before she became an MP so she's been in the public eye a lot longer (I remember her best from Channel 4's "The E Word" series on the EU).

I'm sure the new leader is doing the standard current events programmes, but politics generally gets less coverage than cooking, or DIY on the telly.

It's not about *liking* her - she appears to represent a very specific/non-British demographic that isn't reaching out to a wider audience - even our resident Greenie Neil didn't vote for her as leader. Ms Lucas was able to do that despite being a self-identified hard Lefty.

Natalie Someone could be an MEP for 20yrs and still she doesn't have Ms Lucas' gravitas.

BoredInParis · May 2013

Paris calling.

1 year of Hollande in power today as well so HAPPY ANNIVERSARY HIM!

Not surprised by the news wrt France. The longer I stay here the worse it actually seems to get. There were comedy riots on Monday, right next to where I was doing my fitness training.
The shanty town now had a rather lovely collection of gazebos.

That said, I don't think any politician or policy would make it better quickly. The problems seem utterly engrained into the national consciousness. The lady (actually Portugese, so not utterly intolerable) at the local patisserie was telling me she got warned about opening on a bank holiday (we've had 3 over the last 2 weeks and another one coming up on Monday). People still want yummy things.

JackW · May 2013

@Morris_Dancer

"Mr. W, it's a hard life."

Indeed so but .... "I want it all"

MarkSenior · May 2013

Eric Kitson , the UKIP CC for Stourport being investigated by the police for racist anti Moslim anti Jew comments has resigned . I would expect his seat to be lost to ICHC party
Result May 2nd ( 2 seats )
UKIP 1385 / 1151
ICHC 1335 / 1167
Lab 1141 / 894
Con 984 / 964

Alanbrooke · May 2013

MarkSenior said:
Eric Kitson , the UKIP CC for Stourport being investigated by the police for racist anti Moslim anti Jew comments has resigned . I would expect his seat to be lost to ICHC party
Result May 2nd ( 2 seats )
UKIP 1385 / 1151
ICHC 1335 / 1167
Lab 1141 / 894
Con 984 / 964

Chris Huhne former Liberal democrat minister, let out of jail yesterday.

Plato · May 2013

BoredInParis said:
Paris calling.

1 year of Hollande in power today as well so HAPPY ANNIVERSARY HIM!

Not surprised by the news wrt France. The longer I stay here the worse it actually seems to get. There were comedy riots on Monday, right next to where I was doing my fitness training.
The shanty town now had a rather lovely collection of gazebos.

That said, I don't think any politician or policy would make it better quickly. The problems seem utterly engrained into the national consciousness. The lady (actually Portugese, so not utterly intolerable) at the local patisserie was telling me she got warned about opening on a bank holiday (we've had 3 over the last 2 weeks and another one coming up on Monday). People still want yummy things.

Is that you formerly Mr Chris in Bethesda?

another_richard · May 2013

Revealing fact from CityAM yesturday:

"The median household made net contributions of around £1,700 in 1990, but received £4,600 more than it paid in taxes in 2010"

Helps to explain why government debt has increased by over a trillion pounds during the last generation and why we have a seemingly permanent trade deficit.

Financier · May 2013

The UK says it has secured new laws with the European Union over the controversial dumping of unwanted fish.

Fisheries minister Richard Benyon said the "reforms" would make discards "a thing of the past".

EU fisheries ministers have agreed to detailed measures, including a ban on dumping pelagic fish, such as mackerel and herring.

Mr Benyon said the next step was for the European parliament to agree on the measures.

Ministers have been negotiating the terms of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) for three years.

The night-long negotiations drew to a close early on Wednesday, with only Sweden voting against the measures.
'Key principles'

Once finalised by the European parliament, a ban on dumping will be introduced on 1 January 2015 for pelagic fish - fish that live near the surface,rather than in deep water.

The National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations (NFFO) said the ban had been "put back". It was originally hoped it would be enforced in January 2014.

Mr Benyon said: "This was a difficult negotiation, and although it is not as ambitious as I would have liked, we have stuck to our key principles."

The ministers also made provisions to decentralise decision-making from Brussels, allowing member states more regional control over their own fisheries.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22536037

Morris_Dancer · May 2013

Mr. Paris, nice to see you on again.

Mr. W, you can't have it all. You're not a prince of the universe.

another_richard · May 2013

I'm sure we can expect Avery soon to tell us the employment and earnings data keeps on getting better and better.

Perhaps he would take time to answer my question as to when we can expect a monthly trade surplus.

After all a government committed to ending the budget deficit and rebalancing the economy would surely not go for a whole five years without a single month's trade surplus would it ?

Plato · May 2013

@Financier

Anything we can do to stop the dumping of undersized/wrong sort of fish is to be welcomed in my book - catching something only to throw it away/provide seagull fodder is just appalling bureaucratic box-ticking gone mad.

MrJones · May 2013

BoredInParis said:
Paris calling.

1 year of Hollande in power today as well so HAPPY ANNIVERSARY HIM!

Not surprised by the news wrt France. The longer I stay here the worse it actually seems to get. There were comedy riots on Monday, right next to where I was doing my fitness training.
The shanty town now had a rather lovely collection of gazebos.

That said, I don't think any politician or policy would make it better quickly. The problems seem utterly engrained into the national consciousness. The lady (actually Portugese, so not utterly intolerable) at the local patisserie was telling me she got warned about opening on a bank holiday (we've had 3 over the last 2 weeks and another one coming up on Monday). People still want yummy things.

Are the "comedy riots" about the gay marriage or was that a one-off?

JosiasJessop · May 2013

Alanbrooke said:
Oil companies to be investigated for price fixing, is there any big corporate that earned it's profits fairly in the noughties ? And why did Labour have to knight all the CEOs ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/14/bp-shell-oil-price-rigging

The OFT gave the industry a clean bill of health in January. It will be exceptionally embarrassing for the OFT if the European Commission says that there has been price fixing in the UK. The OFT said a Competition Commission investigation was not needed.

Assuming that the EC investigation includes Britain in its purview, and it is looking at the same issues...

samonipad · May 2013

Godfrey Bloom was fantastic on Sunday Politics

Little dig at Osborne for you timbo

http://youtu.be/D1bCi5QroLk

Alanbrooke · May 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:
Oil companies to be investigated for price fixing, is there any big corporate that earned it's profits fairly in the noughties ? And why did Labour have to knight all the CEOs ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/14/bp-shell-oil-price-rigging
The OFT gave the industry a clean bill of health in January. It will be exceptionally embarrassing for the OFT if the European Commission says that there has been price fixing in the UK. The OFT said a Competition Commission investigation was not needed.

Assuming that the EC investigation includes Britain in its purview, and it is looking at the same issues...

Sounds like the FSA and the banks ...........

SquareRoot · May 2013

@Financier

There is bigger piece of lunacy on the horizon from the EU. I read yesterday that the EU wants to allow producers of farmed fish to go back to feeding them with bone meal and pig offal. Its not as though they haven't learned anything from mad cow disease..

TGOHF · May 2013

Why did red jump on the Eurostar ? Is he that thick he didnt see this coming ???

BenM · May 2013

Bit of a political disaster for Hollande although the real story is that the Euro is an economic straitjacket.

Plato · May 2013

Alanbrooke said:

MarkSenior said:
Eric Kitson , the UKIP CC for Stourport being investigated by the police for racist anti Moslim anti Jew comments has resigned . I would expect his seat to be lost to ICHC party
Result May 2nd ( 2 seats )
UKIP 1385 / 1151
ICHC 1335 / 1167
Lab 1141 / 894
Con 984 / 964
Chris Huhne former Liberal democrat minister, let out of jail yesterday.

And Lord Ahmed resigned from Labour on Monday for blaming the Jews for various things - no party is immune. I believe a former LD peer wasn't too keen on Jews either.

JackW · May 2013

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Paris, nice to see you on again.

Mr. W, you can't have it all. You're not a prince of the universe.

Wrong. The family dynastic name is .... "Flash"

DaemonBarber · May 2013

anotherDave said:

Plato said:

DaemonBarber said:

Plato said:

I think you and others are underestimating how far the Kippers have come in terms of professionalising their media ops and campaigning.
True, but I don't think they've come nearly far enough.
The website is horrible.

Have they finaly abandoned the Tomy - My First Party Branding mess of Bright Purple and Yellow that looked like Nigel knocked it up on Windows 95 using MS Word - WordArt?
@MikeK is probably the man to know here as he mentioned this, IIRC - the Kipper site was hacked so they flung up v0.2 in 24hrs a few days ago.

It's a bit old hat techie-wise, but they're getting there.
Their "DDoS" coincided with their best ever days for signing up new members, while they were being mentioned in the national news headlines following their local election performance.

I think is more likely to be a case of legitimate high traffic meeting a budget hosting package.

Their new website is pretty slow. But they could improve that by making minor changes.

The DDoS caused by genuine traffic is funny.
The new site has more problems than just slowness though. It's a bit of a mess.

BoredInParis · May 2013

MrJones said:

Are the "comedy riots" about the gay marriage or was that a one-off?

No, these were because PSG won the league.

Financier · May 2013

@Blue_rog

A statement said this was partly to do with severe winter weather: "The German economy is only slowly picking up steam. The extreme winter weather played a role in this weak growth."

Just had my monthly conversation with Siemens Germany HO - we give them specialist advice on certain international projects.

They are quoting for many projects but are winning few - they believe that they are experiencing strong price competition and also that the Euro is too strong.

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