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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip a

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003

    I put a couple of these through the WAVE Website Accessibility Tool, to check how well they've been designed for access by the disabled (e.g. the blind) who use reader tools.

    E.g. for the Conservatives: http://wave.webaim.org/report#/http://www.conservatives.com/

    Conservatives: 0 errors, 26 alerts
    Labour: 7 errors, 16 alerts
    LibDems: 2 errors, 1 alert (although their front page is very simple)
    UKIP: 22 errors, 51 alerts

    As an example, my own website front page gets 2 errors and 6 alerts, and the BBC News front page 2 errors, 51 alerts.

    You have to be very careful with these figures, as the online tools isn't the best, and it can depend on the accessibility tool the disabled person is using.

    But generally the results are not too bad, and certainly better than some websites I have seen.
    I assume the libdems.org.uk splash page accounts for the low numbers there...
    Yep, I didn't notice in my quick test; silly of me. Splash pages are the work of the devil. Their real page scores 5 errors, 48 alerts.

    And the SNP page: 5 errors, 17 alerts.
    Greens: 4 errors, 14 alerts
    English PC: 8 errors, 81 alerts.

    So far the Conservatives are winning hands-down *if* you trust the analyser. Other usability issues may abound, however.
    Actually, I can't think of a better way to choose a party than WAVE accessibility. Please god don't let the 'Green Party' have the best website...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    More bad news for QPR.

    Loic Remy arrested on suspicion of rape
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    I think we need an ARSE poll to confirm if this Mori and ICM are outliers.
    The figures I've just quoted below are from last week. I hope to issue a fortnighty ARSE and according there will be a further outpouring early next week.

    Thank you.

    Will your ARSE be carrying polling on Caledonian independence as well?
    Yes indeedy !!

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So my next stint as guest editor coincides with people wondering if Ed is Crap.

    Excellent timing.

    You mean "even more people" ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    For those of us who believe it is the economy stupid

    As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    sleazy labour on the slide..LOL
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see Twitter is full of Lefties saying "But But, YouGov gives us 10pts lead..."

    That even this metric is a dismal blue blanket is lost on them. I hope they keep it up...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    New Thread
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JohnO said:

    3 per cent... John O should be told..

    No need. I was already chuckling. tim seems a bit subdued, can't think why.

    He's awaiting his latest orders from High Command.

    Stand by for a barrage of 'Red Faces', 'Incompetent Fops' and 'Lynton Crosby'.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - you may be 'fine' but certainly looking a bit of a fool, but I suppose that's par for the course for an incessant attack-gerbil.

    No bets. Remember, mid term polls and leadership ratings are amusing and have some interest as snapshots e.g. will the Tories have suffered from the Euro nonsense in a week or so time when the dust settles.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Neil said:


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
    They're not unaccountable, they're directly elected and can be directly unelected.

    Also, cutting things like slow-to-spend cohesion funds is an objectively stupid idea. Europe needs bigger fiscal transfers, and rolling over unspent money to the next year makes for better incentives than cancelling it.
    That's only true to a point. Countries which operate closed list systems, whether regionally or nationally, give almost no control to their electorates in respect of the top-named x candidates in the more popular parties. Those MEPs are accountable only to their parties.

    It's one reason why a really useful change to the way the EU operates would be single-member constituencies for the parliament (another being to select the Commission from the parliament and to make it directly accountable there). There needs to be a change to the whole Brussels mindset and greatly increasing democratic pressure would go no small way in that direction. At the moment, the pressure is only coming from a few national governments.
    The problem is that increased democracy in the European parliament - i.e. actually giving them a role rather than merely copious expense accounts - is that it takes a way from the sovereignty of individual member states. We therefore have an unaccountable Europe, where the decisions are made opaquely and indirectly. Increasing European-level democracy would have the effect of making decision making more open (and address the Farage criticism), but would - at the same time - really be taking us down the route to a European super-state.

    So it's a bit of a quandary all round.
    Isn't the fundamental problem with this that the people of Europe don't consider themselves a people? The solution is to have power and sovereignty at the level that think of as "us" rather than "them". i.e. to reverse the EU's political integration.
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    TheMooseTheMoose Posts: 1
    The "certainty to vote" filter may be crucial - perhaps those arguing that potential Labour supporters need more of a positive reason to vote (beyond just pointing to the coalition and calling it incompetent) are correct.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344

    Socrates said:

    I'm amazed no one else has picked this up. It now looks like there won't be a cut in the EU budget.

    Are you sure that is right? The BBC article is virtually incomprehensible, but as far as I can tell what it means is that they have agreed on the 3.3% budget cut for the next few years, but there's a one-off payment to cover already-incurred unpaid bills.

    I have to say the media reporting on this has been abysmally unclear.

    OMFG British reporting of the EU is useless. They have a "triumph" frame and a "surrender" frame, but no "tell you what's actually going on" frame.

    Is this the additional money because Croatia joined, or is it a different thing?
    My understanding is that this is nothing to do with Croatia. Basically they agreed to cut the amount of money they take for the budget but not the spending that money is spent on.

    The top up is to make up the difference

    There does not appear to be any reason why they can't carry on doing this every year. That said I am not sure of the fine print so there may well be some limit on how often they can do it but certainly they appear to have plans to do the same next year and the year after.
    To be fair, that was the reason MEPs objected to the supposed budget cut - they said it was grandstanding since it made no sense to cut spending without deciding to cut any specific programmes, and it would thus put the Commission in an impossible position. Seems Ministers - including Britain - have now said, "Er, yes, OK, we don't actually want to cut any programmes, so here's some more dosh."

    But I'm trying to make sense of it through the foggy filter laughingly known as our media reporting of European affairs, and this might be wrong...

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Neil said:


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
    They're not unaccountable, they're directly elected and can be directly unelected.

    Also, cutting things like slow-to-spend cohesion funds is an objectively stupid idea. Europe needs bigger fiscal transfers, and rolling over unspent money to the next year makes for better incentives than cancelling it.
    That's only true to a point. Countries which operate closed list systems, whether regionally or nationally, give almost no control to their electorates in respect of the top-named x candidates in the more popular parties. Those MEPs are accountable only to their parties.
    Sure, but that's also true of safe seats under FPTP.

    It's one reason why a really useful change to the way the EU operates would be single-member constituencies for the parliament

    Open lists or STV would do the same job equally well, although like I say it wouldn't make much difference in practice. People don't have enough information to hold individual members of parliament accountable. They mostly go by the party brand, which is probably the right thing for them to do.


    (another being to select the Commission from the parliament and to make it directly accountable there).

    There needs to be a change to the whole Brussels mindset and greatly increasing democratic pressure would go no small way in that direction. At the moment, the pressure is only coming from a few national governments.



    Disagree, it's coming from the parliament. There's very little pressure for (more direct) democracy coming from the member states. They want to hold onto their own power, and they're not in any particular hurry to make themselves more accountable.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    It may well have been but it was the idiot who is in No 10 now who tried to pretend that he was securing some kind of great victory in controlling the EU budget when he must have already known it was nothing of the sort.

    He did achieve a significant victory, in that the medium-term budget increase was vetoed (to be fair, with support from Germany and others). In other words, it would be a lot worse without the pressure he applied. He can only work within the structure Blair and Brown foolishly agreed to.
    Would it be worse? If the original deal had cut it by 3 billion a year rather than 4.5 billion, the Parliament would have negotiated for an extra 6 billion rather than 7.5 billion. The EU decides what to do first and then gets the money to cover it later.

    I'm also sceptical of the "unpaid bills" explanation. The Council's press release says it is for "measures to support economic growth, create jobs and tackle unemployment, especially amount youth people.":

    http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ecofin/137116.pdf

    Even if it is for unpaid bills, they can just run over every year.

    Also, it's not true that Cameron can only work within the Blair-Brown structure. We can leave the EU and sign a new trade agreement and not have to operate within EU rigged structures at all.
    Cameron couldn't lead a policy decision to leave the EU even if he wanted to because he as PM has to work within the constraints of parliament and there's no majority support for that there.

    It's true that 'the government' could in theory propose such a policy but not now in practice.
    If David Cameron wanted to leave the EU, he could come back from a European summit and say "We have worked hard to reverse political integration, but they are simply not interested. It is time for the people to have their say on whether we want to continue political union or go back to a free trade agreement". I'm pretty sure the vast majority of the Conservative party would swing behind him, and there'd be enough referendum believers in the other party to get a vote. Then I'm sure he could get the public to vote to leave.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    will make it harder for Ed Miliband to hold whatever the line is that he's trying to hold.

    I think you've put your finger on the key question there.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.

    Irrespective of whether the right thing is to leave the EU or not, clearly the current situation is not what we agreed to. Sometimes I wonder if your BOOism means you would rather we handed over more money now, so as to (possibly) increase the chance we leave in two years time?

    My view is that "sticking by our word" would be handing over exactly what was agreed. And I would have thought the 'Northern' block (the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland) would be very much on our side with this. The Southerners (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) might also relish a reduction in contributions.

    So come on Cameron - pick up the phone, get some allies, and then announce you're paying the agreed amount and not a centime more.
    I just believe in the rule of law. It's central to my British identity. We have agreed to change the rules of the club that this stuff should happen by QMV. As the rules of the club are never going to change on this, the only gentlemanly way to go back on it is to hand in our resignation. Preferably saying "no offence, old boy" while we do it.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Pulpstar said:

    We're into a new paradigm of polling now I feel, doubt we will see 40% from anyone again this year at least.

    This feels correct.

    I was looking on wiki a while ago at election shares for the 1970s. I was amazed to find that Callaghan lost in 1979 with a share of the vote - 37% - that exceeded the amount Blair won with in 2005. 37% today would nail on a Labour victory.

    It's a sobering thought that the last time any party got better than 40% at an actual GE was 12 years ago.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I find your column very uncomfortable. I'm not sure how I should react to the points that you make, particularly your final point, and I get the impression that you aren't either.

    This means that it is an exceptionally good column.

    It is a rather good column, and a somewhat uneasy read.

    It's why I admire so many writers and columnists, even if I do not agree with them - their use of language is often superb, especially given the fact they are often writing to a word count.

    I think my posts prove that I never write to a word count. ;-)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.

    Irrespective of whether the right thing is to leave the EU or not, clearly the current situation is not what we agreed to. Sometimes I wonder if your BOOism means you would rather we handed over more money now, so as to (possibly) increase the chance we leave in two years time?

    My view is that "sticking by our word" would be handing over exactly what was agreed. And I would have thought the 'Northern' block (the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland) would be very much on our side with this. The Southerners (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) might also relish a reduction in contributions.

    So come on Cameron - pick up the phone, get some allies, and then announce you're paying the agreed amount and not a centime more.
    Unfortunately we are bound by treaty agreements. It is they which dictate how we have to behave with regard to the EU and as long as the EU abides by those agreements - loopholes and all - there is not a lot we can do.

    Actually to correct that, there are things we can do but they all lead towards the exit and Cameron simply will not countenance those things. He would rather blame the last government for everything whilst trying to maintain the fiction that he can change the EU.

    Having just watched the new Star Trek last night my response would match that of Spock.

    He is being most Illogical
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.

    Irrespective of whether the right thing is to leave the EU or not, clearly the current situation is not what we agreed to. Sometimes I wonder if your BOOism means you would rather we handed over more money now, so as to (possibly) increase the chance we leave in two years time?

    My view is that "sticking by our word" would be handing over exactly what was agreed. And I would have thought the 'Northern' block (the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland) would be very much on our side with this. The Southerners (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) might also relish a reduction in contributions.

    So come on Cameron - pick up the phone, get some allies, and then announce you're paying the agreed amount and not a centime more.
    I just believe in the rule of law. It's central to my British identity. We have agreed to change the rules of the club that this stuff should happen by QMV. As the rules of the club are never going to change on this, the only gentlemanly way to go back on it is to hand in our resignation. Preferably saying "no offence, old boy" while we do it.
    Agree 100%. One cannot join a club, agree the rules and then decide unilaterally not to abide by them.

    Its just not Cricket. (Seriously)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    rcs1000 said:

    I put a couple of these through the WAVE Website Accessibility Tool, to check how well they've been designed for access by the disabled (e.g. the blind) who use reader tools.

    E.g. for the Conservatives: http://wave.webaim.org/report#/http://www.conservatives.com/

    Conservatives: 0 errors, 26 alerts
    Labour: 7 errors, 16 alerts
    LibDems: 2 errors, 1 alert (although their front page is very simple)
    UKIP: 22 errors, 51 alerts

    As an example, my own website front page gets 2 errors and 6 alerts, and the BBC News front page 2 errors, 51 alerts.

    You have to be very careful with these figures, as the online tools isn't the best, and it can depend on the accessibility tool the disabled person is using.

    But generally the results are not too bad, and certainly better than some websites I have seen.
    I assume the libdems.org.uk splash page accounts for the low numbers there...
    Yep, I didn't notice in my quick test; silly of me. Splash pages are the work of the devil. Their real page scores 5 errors, 48 alerts.

    And the SNP page: 5 errors, 17 alerts.
    Greens: 4 errors, 14 alerts
    English PC: 8 errors, 81 alerts.

    So far the Conservatives are winning hands-down *if* you trust the analyser. Other usability issues may abound, however.
    Actually, I can't think of a better way to choose a party than WAVE accessibility. Please god don't let the 'Green Party' have the best website...
    I actually voted green at the local elections. Mrs J was rather surprised...
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    A word of caution: Ipsos-MORI does tend to produce rather volatile figures, for reasons I've never quite understood (it might be their certainty-to-vote filter).

    These Ipsos-MORI figures only include those certain to vote (chortle!) so must hide an awful lot of dont knows.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.

    Irrespective of whether the right thing is to leave the EU or not, clearly the current situation is not what we agreed to. Sometimes I wonder if your BOOism means you would rather we handed over more money now, so as to (possibly) increase the chance we leave in two years time?

    My view is that "sticking by our word" would be handing over exactly what was agreed. And I would have thought the 'Northern' block (the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland) would be very much on our side with this. The Southerners (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) might also relish a reduction in contributions.

    So come on Cameron - pick up the phone, get some allies, and then announce you're paying the agreed amount and not a centime more.
    I just believe in the rule of law. It's central to my British identity. We have agreed to change the rules of the club that this stuff should happen by QMV. As the rules of the club are never going to change on this, the only gentlemanly way to go back on it is to hand in our resignation. Preferably saying "no offence, old boy" while we do it.
    Agree 100%. One cannot join a club, agree the rules and then decide unilaterally not to abide by them.

    Its just not Cricket. (Seriously)
    Typically the French just ignore EU rules with which they do not wish to comply. At the same time, they ignore/do not pay fines imposed by the EU (e.g. the fine for restricting the importation of British beef when it has been cleared as fit for human consumption). The EU just does nothing - so if those club rules are the accepted ones - why not adopt them?

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,214
    Socrates said:

    This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:

    "Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"

    The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?

    To be fair, I saw this reported a while back. So it has been - even if not widely publicised.

    And over-sensitivity was not the only reason. On Newsnight last night Keir Starmer was very good at explaining how prosecutors assessed the evidential value of the victims and came up with the conclusion that they would be poor witnesses hence no point prosecuting rather than seeing them as abused children and looking at the wider picture.

    We have a tendency to forget that 12-13-14-year olds are children. All the more so when they are abandoned in "care".

This discussion has been closed.