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  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
    I do blame them. I also blame Cameron for not being honest about the situation and making it clear that we don't actually have the control he claims over how much we are taken for.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Interesting in-depth non-partisan article on the different polling techniques used by PPP and Rasmussen. They use the US Senate Brown v Warren race as the main illustration.

    Plenty on differences between pollsters in methodology, likely-voter screens, modelling demographic composition of polls etc.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Thanks.

    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it? They're getting concessions as a precondition to begin talks...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
    I do blame them. I also blame Cameron for not being honest about the situation and making it clear that we don't actually have the control he claims over how much we are taken for.
    We should refuse to pay it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053


    @ChrisMasonBBC
    92 MPs have put names to amendment to Qn's Sph which 'respectfully regretted that EU referendum bill was not included in Gracious Speech.'
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627
    TGOHF said:

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
    I do blame them. I also blame Cameron for not being honest about the situation and making it clear that we don't actually have the control he claims over how much we are taken for.
    We should refuse to pay it.
    We can't Richard N is correct that we are signed up to this system by Blair. If we refuse to pay we are in breach of our treaty obligations.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22537815

    A former Liberal Democrat - who has defected to Labour - is now trying to sell his personalised number plate, L16 DEM.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
  • If we stopped paying the EU and also stopped the Int'l Aid budget we would save about 25bn a year. Our deficit would drop to about 4%. What an unforgivable shocking waste.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    corporeal said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22537815

    A former Liberal Democrat - who has defected to Labour - is now trying to sell his personalised number plate, L16 DEM.

    I thought the personalised number plates for Lib Dems was

    "Perf1d10u5"
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited May 2013

    I put a couple of these through the WAVE Website Accessibility Tool, to check how well they've been designed for access by the disabled (e.g. the blind) who use reader tools.

    E.g. for the Conservatives: http://wave.webaim.org/report#/http://www.conservatives.com/

    Conservatives: 0 errors, 26 alerts
    Labour: 7 errors, 16 alerts
    LibDems: 2 errors, 1 alert (although their front page is very simple)
    UKIP: 22 errors, 51 alerts

    As an example, my own website front page gets 2 errors and 6 alerts, and the BBC News front page 2 errors, 51 alerts.

    You have to be very careful with these figures, as the online tools isn't the best, and it can depend on the accessibility tool the disabled person is using.

    But generally the results are not too bad, and certainly better than some websites I have seen.
    I assume the libdems.org.uk splash page accounts for the low numbers there...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    As the site's technical administrator, I'd just like to say that if I receive sufficient bribesdonations, then I'm happy to reinstate the like/dislike buttons.

    As the site's foremost ARSE, I'd just like to say if I receive sufficient gratuitous groveling and mindless fawning, then I'm happy for PBers to push my buttons and to reinstate fortnightly outpouring from my august organ.



  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Anorak said:

    tim said:

    Richard Edgar ‏@ITVRichard 5m
    Wages are falling ever further behind prices, growing 0.8 % in May while inflation is c4 times higher at 2.8%. Mervyn King speaks in an hour

    Any idea of the influence of public-sector pay freezes on the national total? Perhaps those not paid by the state are tracking closer to price increases, so wont 'feel' it as acutely. They're still slowly falling behind prices, though, I'm sure.
    As I understand it, the public sector pay freeze didn't happen.

    http://burningourmoney.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/the-freeze-that-never-was.html
    If they're cutting the headcounts, and doing it the short-term-cheap way by slowing new hires who tend to be younger, you'd expect the average pay to go up alongside the average age. This would happen in the private sector too, because it's more common to get promoted than demoted.

    If you want to reduce young hires while keeping the average pay constant, you'll need to actually cut pay scales for the people who are left, not just freeze them. Thinking of the long term it may be better to fire under-performing older people instead of cutting back new hires, but that costs you more in the short term because firing people is expensive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Nick Clegg is very good at PMQs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.

    17% it is then

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.

    Very interesting, but whats your point?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2013

    Nick Clegg is very good at PMQs.

    And with that comment Peter Bone (Ukip-Lite - Wellingborough) just spontaneously combusted !!

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sam,thanks for this article you pointed out.

    Labour betrayed its most loyal working-class supporters. And it doesn't even care

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/michaelheaver/100216882/labour-betrayed-its-most-loyal-working-class-supporters-and-it-doesnt-even-care/
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013

    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.

    The 18% ICM was two weeks after the Survation 16%. Two weeks before the Survation 16% ICM had 9%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    MikeK said:

    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.

    Very interesting, but whats your point?

    That prompting or not prompting for UKIP doesn't seem to have that much difference on their VI
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962


    We can't Richard N is correct that we are signed up to this system by Blair. If we refuse to pay we are in breach of our treaty obligations.

    "A scrap of paper!"

    :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    TGOHF said:

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
    I do blame them. I also blame Cameron for not being honest about the situation and making it clear that we don't actually have the control he claims over how much we are taken for.
    We should refuse to pay it.
    We can't Richard N is correct that we are signed up to this system by Blair. If we refuse to pay we are in breach of our treaty obligations.
    So what.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    JackW said:

    Nick Clegg is very good at PMQs.

    And with comment Peter Bone (Ukip-Lite - Wellingborough) just spontaneously combusted !!

    Bah, Peter Bone isn't UKIP lite, he's propah UKIP.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,012

    What kind of victory is it if the EU just turns round and uses a different method to get the money out of us?

    They are getting less than would otherwise be the case.

    But of course you are right on the main point that, because of Brown's and Blair's incompetence, we don't have the control we should have to prevent the EU's profligacy hitting the UK taxpayer. Blame them.
    I do blame them. I also blame Cameron for not being honest about the situation and making it clear that we don't actually have the control he claims over how much we are taken for.
    British politics being what it is, Cam was unable to say that as the wonderful British public would have tarnished him with being somehow culpable.

    It just would not have worked politically.

    Which is a shame.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As the site's technical administrator, I'd just like to say that if I receive sufficient bribesdonations, then I'm happy to reinstate the like/dislike buttons.

    As the site's foremost ARSE, I'd just like to say if I receive sufficient gratuitous groveling and mindless fawning, then I'm happy for PBers to push my buttons and to reinstate fortnightly outpouring from my august organ.



    OK @rcs1000. put the donation button up for the next few days and see if you are bribeddonated enough to re-instate those buttons. Actually I don't see why uou don't put up the donate button as a permanent fixture.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    It may well have been but it was the idiot who is in No 10 now who tried to pretend that he was securing some kind of great victory in controlling the EU budget when he must have already known it was nothing of the sort.

    He did achieve a significant victory, in that the medium-term budget increase was vetoed (to be fair, with support from Germany and others). In other words, it would be a lot worse without the pressure he applied. He can only work within the structure Blair and Brown foolishly agreed to.
    Would it be worse? If the original deal had cut it by 3 billion a year rather than 4.5 billion, the Parliament would have negotiated for an extra 6 billion rather than 7.5 billion. The EU decides what to do first and then gets the money to cover it later.

    I'm also sceptical of the "unpaid bills" explanation. The Council's press release says it is for "measures to support economic growth, create jobs and tackle unemployment, especially amount youth people.":

    http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ecofin/137116.pdf

    Even if it is for unpaid bills, they can just run over every year.

    Also, it's not true that Cameron can only work within the Blair-Brown structure. We can leave the EU and sign a new trade agreement and not have to operate within EU rigged structures at all.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    JackW said:

    Nick Clegg is very good at PMQs.

    And with comment Peter Bone (Ukip-Lite - Wellingborough) just spontaneously combusted !!

    Bah, Peter Bone isn't UKIP lite, he's propah UKIP.
    UKIP is Bone-lite
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    On topic, it is interesting that with ICM, unprompted UKIP polled 18%, but prompted with Survation UKIP get 16%.

    Very interesting, but whats your point?

    That prompting or not prompting for UKIP doesn't seem to have that much difference on their VI
    I think AnotherDave has answered you. Two weeks is a long time in politics - even longer than a week. ;)

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,012
    tim said:

    Every freakish red faced Tory loon having his turn.
    Tony Marlowe
    Roger Gale
    Peter Bone

    Not difficult for Clegg to look good in comparison.

    Every one of them? So there are only three?

    Phew.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:

    "Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"

    The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    SeanT said:
    A truly excellent piece. Congratulations.

    One possible nit - I have seen it reported differently in different places: were the guilty men Pakistani and Somali or British-born of Pakistani and Somali heritage?

  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621

    Sam,thanks for this article you pointed out.

    Labour betrayed its most loyal working-class supporters. And it doesn't even care

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/michaelheaver/100216882/labour-betrayed-its-most-loyal-working-class-supporters-and-it-doesnt-even-care/

    Why should Labour care? It is all part of the ground game. Those supporters are in the bag.

    In practice, this is my worry about DC. The Tebbit style Tories had nowhere else to go. Now they do. If only this could happen to Labour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,301
    Re the budget: given the EU currently has zero soldiers, and a not a single missile. Would it not be an idea just to simply pay exactly was agreed at the budget negotiations previously? I'm sure it would be popular in Germany were Frau Merkel to do the same.

    (And for all the treaty requirements, it's worth pointing out that the Italian are currently in breach of a number of ECJ judgements, and so far the EU has failed to invade.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Looks like Finbarr Saunders is working for Radio 4

    BBC Radio 4 rapped over 'cox sackers' on-air comment

    Listener complained that email read out during afternoon show contained 'grossly offensive' play on words

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/may/15/bbc-radio-4-cox-sackers
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I hope one day we can all have "Climate Justice"

    "Ed Miliband congratulated us [yippee!] for launching a Climate Justice campaign, urging the audience that "governments alone won't achieve a climate change agreement. It needs you, civil society, people of faith and not of faith, all of us.""

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100217038/cafods-love-in-with-ed-miliband/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    You don't have to look far to see how Britain will fare under Ed Miliband, about 21 miles from Dover in fact.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

    Zut alors.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the budget: given the EU currently has zero soldiers, and a not a single missile. Would it not be an idea just to simply pay exactly was agreed at the budget negotiations previously? I'm sure it would be popular in Germany were Frau Merkel to do the same.

    (And for all the treaty requirements, it's worth pointing out that the Italian are currently in breach of a number of ECJ judgements, and so far the EU has failed to invade.)

    Indeed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Neil said:


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
    They're not unaccountable, they're directly elected and can be directly unelected.

    Also, cutting things like slow-to-spend cohesion funds is an objectively stupid idea. Europe needs bigger fiscal transfers, and rolling over unspent money to the next year makes for better incentives than cancelling it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    You don't have to look far to see how Britain will fare under Ed Miliband, about 21 miles from Dover in fact.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

    Zut alors.

    Ah but have they got "Climate Justice" ?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:

    "Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"

    The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?

    Because they don't want to be branded as 'Racist' either.

    Look at the vitriol poured onto the heads of posters by the usual suspects here.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @edmundintokyo

    It's pretty hard to unelect people on a PR party list system. Andrew Duff openly says the English should be defeated in Europe, sees his party lose large numbers of votes in the Eastern region, and still gets in because he's at the top of the list. The vast majority of people can want to kick someone out but there will still be enough unthinking tribal voters that the top of the list for each of the three big parties will still get in. That's the problem with multi-member constituencies.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    Why on Earth are blog posts shortened by the editors? There's no page inches being used up. It seems like the sort of things editors would do because they've always done them and want to justify their jobs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    You don't have to look far to see how Britain will fare under Ed Miliband, about 21 miles from Dover in fact.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22536197

    Zut alors.

    Ah but have they got "Climate Justice" ?
    One nation under justice
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Socrates said:

    This is an incredible bit from SeanT's column:

    "Why did Afzal [head of the North West prosecution service] succeed where others feared to tread? Afzal himself says: "My Pakistani heritage helped cut through barriers within the black and minority ethnic communities, And white professionals' oversensitivity to political correctness and fear of appearing racist may well have contributed to justice being stalled.”"

    The actual head of the authority in charge of getting these convictions has says its down to oversensitivity to political correctness. How on Earth does this not get reported by the mainstream media?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/nov/21/nazir-afzal-cps-child-abuse

    Is the only result I can find from before the last month.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763

    corporeal said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22537815

    A former Liberal Democrat - who has defected to Labour - is now trying to sell his personalised number plate, L16 DEM.

    I thought the personalised number plates for Lib Dems was

    "Perf1d10u5"
    It's not a very good number plate but it's quite a decent computer password.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I missed this from Mandelson:

    ‘In 2004 when as a Labour government, we were not only welcoming people to come into this country to work, we were sending out search parties for people and encouraging them, in some cases, to take up work in this country.’

    I assume even lefties will be too embarrassed to claim that mass immigration "just happened".

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Lord-Mandelson-Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-hard-Britons-work.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    No referendum - no Red in number 10.

    Perhaps Labour should bang on about Europe more ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:
    A truly excellent piece. Congratulations.

    One possible nit - I have seen it reported differently in different places: were the guilty men Pakistani and Somali or British-born of Pakistani and Somali heritage?

    The piece has been shortened and edited in a way that doesn't make me entirely happy, but that's journalism. e.g. In the original I specifically said they were Brits of Pakistani and Somali heritage.

    But thanks for yr remarks.
    Sean,I see the comments have been closed down ;-)

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    They're shedding voters to UKIP? All those 'thick racists' looking for a new home.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    Changes from last month

    Tories +2

    Labour -4

    LD nc

    UKIP -2
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Looks like Finbarr Saunders is working for Radio 4

    BBC Radio 4 rapped over 'cox sackers' on-air comment

    Listener complained that email read out during afternoon show contained 'grossly offensive' play on words

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/may/15/bbc-radio-4-cox-sackers

    Clearly in the 1960's the listener wasn't overly keen on "Round the Horne"

    Oh er Sandy !!!!!!!!!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 14m
    Labour's lead in Mori down to 3 points. Amazed. Didn't see that coming. After everything was going so well...

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 3m
    Gabby Hinsliff tells me Mori in line with poll to be published later this week. In which case I return to being facetious. Ed screwed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,301
    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000

    Tempting though that strategy is, we're not dodgy, feckles Italians. Upstanding Britons stand by our word and the rule of law and we should abide by our existing obligations. The solution isn't to disobey the treaties. It's to pull out of the treaties.

    Irrespective of whether the right thing is to leave the EU or not, clearly the current situation is not what we agreed to. Sometimes I wonder if your BOOism means you would rather we handed over more money now, so as to (possibly) increase the chance we leave in two years time?

    My view is that "sticking by our word" would be handing over exactly what was agreed. And I would have thought the 'Northern' block (the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland) would be very much on our side with this. The Southerners (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) might also relish a reduction in contributions.

    So come on Cameron - pick up the phone, get some allies, and then announce you're paying the agreed amount and not a centime more.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Socrates said:

    @edmundintokyo

    It's pretty hard to unelect people on a PR party list system. Andrew Duff openly says the English should be defeated in Europe, sees his party lose large numbers of votes in the Eastern region, and still gets in because he's at the top of the list. The vast majority of people can want to kick someone out but there will still be enough unthinking tribal voters that the top of the list for each of the three big parties will still get in. That's the problem with multi-member constituencies.

    We're talking about the budget, which will be almost entirely party-line. Even if we weren't, although I'd prefer STV or open lists, it would make very little difference in practice. Voters vote for parties, even under FPTP people in safe seats are safe while popular people in marginals only make a difference at the margins.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    Changes from last month

    Tories +2

    Labour -4

    LD nc

    UKIP -2
    Am tempted to call an outlier, but of course ICM ALSO had Labour on 34. It does seem that Team Miliband have recently taken a significant hit. Why?

    I reckon it is the whole country shifting right, thanks to UKIP, and also the utter uselessness of Red himself.

    Labour majority NOT nailed on. Not any more.
    I think it is confimation of the point I made after the locals.

    Labour are only picking up a third of the votes the coalition parties are shedding.

    That's not good for an opposition.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    Changes from last month

    Tories +2

    Labour -4

    LD nc

    UKIP -2
    Am tempted to call an outlier, but of course ICM ALSO had Labour on 34. It does seem that Team Miliband have recently taken a significant hit. Why?

    I reckon it is the whole country shifting right, thanks to UKIP, and also the utter uselessness of Red himself.

    Labour majority NOT nailed on. Not any more.
    Perhaps the question should be why Miliband was so high for so long ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    Socrates said:

    It may well have been but it was the idiot who is in No 10 now who tried to pretend that he was securing some kind of great victory in controlling the EU budget when he must have already known it was nothing of the sort.

    He did achieve a significant victory, in that the medium-term budget increase was vetoed (to be fair, with support from Germany and others). In other words, it would be a lot worse without the pressure he applied. He can only work within the structure Blair and Brown foolishly agreed to.
    Would it be worse? If the original deal had cut it by 3 billion a year rather than 4.5 billion, the Parliament would have negotiated for an extra 6 billion rather than 7.5 billion. The EU decides what to do first and then gets the money to cover it later.

    I'm also sceptical of the "unpaid bills" explanation. The Council's press release says it is for "measures to support economic growth, create jobs and tackle unemployment, especially amount youth people.":

    http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ecofin/137116.pdf

    Even if it is for unpaid bills, they can just run over every year.

    Also, it's not true that Cameron can only work within the Blair-Brown structure. We can leave the EU and sign a new trade agreement and not have to operate within EU rigged structures at all.
    Cameron couldn't lead a policy decision to leave the EU even if he wanted to because he as PM has to work within the constraints of parliament and there's no majority support for that there.

    It's true that 'the government' could in theory propose such a policy but not now in practice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Labour in a mess, of that there is no doubt.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    A word of caution: Ipsos-MORI does tend to produce rather volatile figures, for reasons I've never quite understood (it might be their certainty-to-vote filter).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,301

    Socrates said:

    @edmundintokyo

    It's pretty hard to unelect people on a PR party list system. Andrew Duff openly says the English should be defeated in Europe, sees his party lose large numbers of votes in the Eastern region, and still gets in because he's at the top of the list. The vast majority of people can want to kick someone out but there will still be enough unthinking tribal voters that the top of the list for each of the three big parties will still get in. That's the problem with multi-member constituencies.

    We're talking about the budget, which will be almost entirely party-line. Even if we weren't, although I'd prefer STV or open lists, it would make very little difference in practice. Voters vote for parties, even under FPTP people in safe seats are safe while popular people in marginals only make a difference at the margins.
    While it may make little difference in practice, party lists take power away from ordinary voters and hand them to party machines. Therefore, I would suggest they should be avoided at all costs.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TGOHF said:

    I hope one day we can all have "Climate Justice"

    "Ed Miliband congratulated us [yippee!] for launching a Climate Justice campaign, urging the audience that "governments alone won't achieve a climate change agreement. It needs you, civil society, people of faith and not of faith, all of us.""

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100217038/cafods-love-in-with-ed-miliband/

    Climate Justice. WTF does that even mean? Fair and reasonable climate for all? Getting the climate you deserve?

    Yuck.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Labour in a mess, of that there is no doubt.

    It's not so much Labour in a mess, more that the three major parties all have their own differing problems, and there's a new kid on the block, that's popular.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    Certainty to vote higher in the Shires where the local elections were I'd guess.

    Only 10/10 certain to vote included.
    Still poor for Labour

    Good poll for the Tories.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,301

    TGOHF said:

    I hope one day we can all have "Climate Justice"

    "Ed Miliband congratulated us [yippee!] for launching a Climate Justice campaign, urging the audience that "governments alone won't achieve a climate change agreement. It needs you, civil society, people of faith and not of faith, all of us.""

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100217038/cafods-love-in-with-ed-miliband/

    Climate Justice. WTF does that even mean? Fair and reasonable climate for all? Getting the climate you deserve?

    Yuck.
    I think it means finding the man (or woman) responsible for our current weather, and locking said person up for a long, long time. Preferably in the same cell as Chris Huhne.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SeanT I find your column very uncomfortable. I'm not sure how I should react to the points that you make, particularly your final point, and I get the impression that you aren't either.

    This means that it is an exceptionally good column.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    I think we need an ARSE poll to confirm if this Mori and ICM are outliers.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    WTF? MORI has Labour with a lead of 3pts? I know its bouncy - but 3pts?

    HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    How does that line up with your ARSE ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763

    Neil said:


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
    They're not unaccountable, they're directly elected and can be directly unelected.

    Also, cutting things like slow-to-spend cohesion funds is an objectively stupid idea. Europe needs bigger fiscal transfers, and rolling over unspent money to the next year makes for better incentives than cancelling it.
    That's only true to a point. Countries which operate closed list systems, whether regionally or nationally, give almost no control to their electorates in respect of the top-named x candidates in the more popular parties. Those MEPs are accountable only to their parties.

    It's one reason why a really useful change to the way the EU operates would be single-member constituencies for the parliament (another being to select the Commission from the parliament and to make it directly accountable there). There needs to be a change to the whole Brussels mindset and greatly increasing democratic pressure would go no small way in that direction. At the moment, the pressure is only coming from a few national governments.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    I like John Rentoul, he does a Dave is crap piece.

    Then the mori poll comes out


    Update: Mind you, if the Ipsos MORI poll, published during PMQs, putting Labour’s lead at three points is not an outlier, perhaps banging on about Europe was Cameron’s judo plan all along.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/05/15/a-triumph-for-david-cameron/
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I hope one day we can all have "Climate Justice"

    "Ed Miliband congratulated us [yippee!] for launching a Climate Justice campaign, urging the audience that "governments alone won't achieve a climate change agreement. It needs you, civil society, people of faith and not of faith, all of us.""

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100217038/cafods-love-in-with-ed-miliband/

    Climate Justice. WTF does that even mean? Fair and reasonable climate for all? Getting the climate you deserve?

    Yuck.
    I think it means finding the man (or woman) responsible for our current weather, and locking said person up for a long, long time. Preferably in the same cell as Chris Huhne.
    Nationwide man-hunt for Michael Fish?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Pulpstar said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11m
    LAB lead down to just 3% in the Ipsos-MORI May poll. It's CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, Ukip 13

    Labour on 34?! Is this a new poll? WTF is happening?

    Certainty to vote higher in the Shires where the local elections were I'd guess.

    Only 10/10 certain to vote included.
    Still poor for Labour

    Good poll for the Tories.
    The Tories on 31 is not a good poll for the Tories.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    How does that line up with your ARSE ?
    My ARSE is presently a little more optimistic about Ed but still shows the Conservatives ten seats up on Labour :

    Con 290 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 43 .. SNP 10 .. PC 3 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rEd makes Labour supporters less likely to vote ?

    Truly the man to lead this nation.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a single poll, from a very volatile pollster. 34% is undoubtedly a poor showing for Labour, but 31% is a fairly dismal showing for the Conservatives.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071


    Climate Justice. WTF does that even mean? Fair and reasonable climate for all? Getting the climate you deserve? Yuck.

    No, not that sort of justice. Smiting. Lightning coming out of nowhere - especially indoors. Weeping and gnashing of little pointy teeth. Graves opening, and zombies of death pouring out to devour the brains of the unrighteous eco-zealots.

    That sort of justice. Get the popcorn in.
  • Millibandspeak: "people of faith and not of faith". Gawd help us if someone who produces this gobbledygook ever gets his two left thumbs on the levers of power.**

    ** Don't mind a small majority where EdM can show us he's a Hollande-type super incompetent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    It's a single poll, from a very volatile pollster. 34% is undoubtedly a poor showing for Labour, but 31% is a fairly dismal showing for the Conservatives.

    A single poll - to match the other ICM single poll.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    @edmundintokyo

    It's pretty hard to unelect people on a PR party list system. Andrew Duff openly says the English should be defeated in Europe, sees his party lose large numbers of votes in the Eastern region, and still gets in because he's at the top of the list. The vast majority of people can want to kick someone out but there will still be enough unthinking tribal voters that the top of the list for each of the three big parties will still get in. That's the problem with multi-member constituencies.

    We're talking about the budget, which will be almost entirely party-line. Even if we weren't, although I'd prefer STV or open lists, it would make very little difference in practice. Voters vote for parties, even under FPTP people in safe seats are safe while popular people in marginals only make a difference at the margins.
    While it may make little difference in practice, party lists take power away from ordinary voters and hand them to party machines. Therefore, I would suggest they should be avoided at all costs.
    I agree they're best avoided. Britain should standardize on STV for the Euros, instead of having a good system for Northern Ireland and a crap one for everyone else.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Baxtering that Mori poll

    Gives a Labour majority of 30 and no UKIP MPs
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    Ref the new Poll - Others *excluding UKIP* are implicitly on 12%. That's very high. Assuming about 4% for SNP+PC and 1% for the far right, that must mean about 6-7% for the rest, which I'd guess would be mostly where Labour's support is going? Greens perhaps?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Shock Horror..Ed Conway actually smiled at some reasonably promising economic news...his mother must be worried for him
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    3 per cent... John O should be told..
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    @TheScreamingEagles,midterm fot this government and labour 34%,I was expecting 15 to 20% labour leads - laughable.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    I think we need an ARSE poll to confirm if this Mori and ICM are outliers.
    The figures I've just quoted below are from last week. I hope to issue a fortnighty ARSE and according there will be a further outpouring early next week.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,301

    Neil said:


    The EU Parliament is getting frisky, isn't it?

    Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give more powers to such an unaccountable mob?
    They're not unaccountable, they're directly elected and can be directly unelected.

    Also, cutting things like slow-to-spend cohesion funds is an objectively stupid idea. Europe needs bigger fiscal transfers, and rolling over unspent money to the next year makes for better incentives than cancelling it.
    That's only true to a point. Countries which operate closed list systems, whether regionally or nationally, give almost no control to their electorates in respect of the top-named x candidates in the more popular parties. Those MEPs are accountable only to their parties.

    It's one reason why a really useful change to the way the EU operates would be single-member constituencies for the parliament (another being to select the Commission from the parliament and to make it directly accountable there). There needs to be a change to the whole Brussels mindset and greatly increasing democratic pressure would go no small way in that direction. At the moment, the pressure is only coming from a few national governments.
    The problem is that increased democracy in the European parliament - i.e. actually giving them a role rather than merely copious expense accounts - is that it takes a way from the sovereignty of individual member states. We therefore have an unaccountable Europe, where the decisions are made opaquely and indirectly. Increasing European-level democracy would have the effect of making decision making more open (and address the Farage criticism), but would - at the same time - really be taking us down the route to a European super-state.

    So it's a bit of a quandary all round.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Have I noted this before :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    I think we need an ARSE poll to confirm if this Mori and ICM are outliers.
    The figures I've just quoted below are from last week. I hope to issue a fortnighty ARSE and according there will be a further outpouring early next week.

    Thank you.

    Will your ARSE be carrying polling on Caledonian independence as well?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    3 per cent... John O should be told..

    No need. I was already chuckling. tim seems a bit subdued, can't think why.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    We're into a new paradigm of polling now I feel, doubt we will see 40% from anyone again this year at least.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    antifrank said:

    It's a single poll, from a very volatile pollster. 34% is undoubtedly a poor showing for Labour, but 31% is a fairly dismal showing for the Conservatives.

    The political significance is that people who don't understand polling, which apparently includes a surprising number of politicians, won't know that, and will make it harder for Ed Miliband to hold whatever the line is that he's trying to hold.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,960

    I put a couple of these through the WAVE Website Accessibility Tool, to check how well they've been designed for access by the disabled (e.g. the blind) who use reader tools.

    E.g. for the Conservatives: http://wave.webaim.org/report#/http://www.conservatives.com/

    Conservatives: 0 errors, 26 alerts
    Labour: 7 errors, 16 alerts
    LibDems: 2 errors, 1 alert (although their front page is very simple)
    UKIP: 22 errors, 51 alerts

    As an example, my own website front page gets 2 errors and 6 alerts, and the BBC News front page 2 errors, 51 alerts.

    You have to be very careful with these figures, as the online tools isn't the best, and it can depend on the accessibility tool the disabled person is using.

    But generally the results are not too bad, and certainly better than some websites I have seen.
    I assume the libdems.org.uk splash page accounts for the low numbers there...
    Yep, I didn't notice in my quick test; silly of me. Splash pages are the work of the devil. Their real page scores 5 errors, 48 alerts.

    And the SNP page: 5 errors, 17 alerts.
    Greens: 4 errors, 14 alerts
    English PC: 8 errors, 81 alerts.

    So far the Conservatives are winning hands-down *if* you trust the analyser. Other usability issues may abound, however.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Ed Miliband must work to change voters' minds on poverty

    Labour supporters have hardened their attitude towards social justice because Labour did. Miliband must reverse this

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/15/ed-miliband-change-voters-minds-poverty
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    @TheScreamingEagles,midterm fot this government and labour 34%,I was expecting 15 to 20% labour leads - laughable.

    Assuming its an outlier - its all still immensely amusing.

    3pts? In mid-term? Let's see the Lefties exert themselves with Look Squirrel over the next few hours talking about anything else.

    Cheered me up no end this afternoon :^ )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013
    So my next stint as guest editor coincides with people wondering if Ed is Crap.

    Excellent timing.
This discussion has been closed.