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Is there a face-saving way Johnson can step aside? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195
    If Boris resigned would England bat any better? Probably not*. Would the government have a radical change in direction? Almost certainly not. Would Ukraine suddenly go better? Very probably not, possibly the reverse. Would we have a less severe cost of living crisis? Nope.

    I think we are a point when Boris needs to just soak up some of the vitriol and grumpiness for a while. The Tories will probably need to change leader before the next election, but as Saint Augustine would say, not yet.

    * of course if I was wrong about this he should certainly resign today.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    kinabalu said:

    I think she has ages left. In months my spread offering* would be 39/42.

    * Indicative only. Not right to bet on this sort of thing. I do have her in our covid DeadPool, come to think of it, but that's just a bit of harmless fun.
    Not if you are the Queen it isn't :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    pm215 said:

    A military-history blog I read had a recent post which was a glossary of this kind of technical term. Its definition is:

    "Culminate. A term from Clausewitz (book 7, chapter 5), an offensive culminates (or reaches its culminating point) when the advantage in strength no longer favors the attacker sufficiently enough to continue pushing forward. Crucially, this does not mean the offensive ends: an attacker may not know their offensive has culminated and may keep ‘pushing’ and achieving nothing for some time. At the same time, the culmination of an offensive operation (see Operations) does not end a war – the attacker may merely rebuild strength (reinforcements, supplies, organization) to push again later, something that is generally termed an ‘operational pause.’"
    Wont be a surprise when it becomes clear that RU has culminated in Donbas, Putin calls for a ceasefire and uses it to regroup.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    kjh said:

    Of course even if accurate it isn't necessarily relevant. It is not comparing like with like (typical of hyufd) Even if no Tory leader currently does outperform Starmer (again I don't know if that is true) you want to pick the one that will perform best.
    I don't believe it is accurate. It isn't how I remember it or how the evidence was taught reasonably soon afterwards. If I'm wrong I will be happy to say so, but I think HY is so desperate to say that black is white that he'll say literally anything and think we are stupid enough to believe it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited June 2022
    valleyboy said:

    For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral.
    Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
    I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    Cheers for the above explanations of culminate.
    Learn something every day on here!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
    There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    I don't believe it is accurate. It isn't how I remember it or how the evidence was taught reasonably soon afterwards. If I'm wrong I will be happy to say so, but I think HY is so desperate to say that black is white that he'll say literally anything and think we are stupid enough to believe it.
    It's not how I recall the situation, either. The obsession with hourly (it seems) polling hadn't really taken hold either.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?

    My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.

    Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,735
    HYUFD said:

    Has Boris had a serious accident or health issue? No.

    I don't care what Boris has done I only care about maximising the Tory voteshare as a Tory member and unless another Tory leader is shown in polls to have a clear lead over Starmer Labour, which none are, then Boris stays as far as I am concerned. Especially given most alternatives, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Sunak, Gove, Truss etc poll even worse with the voters than Boris anyway now.

    If Boris went I would back Ben Wallace or Javid as the only alternatives who poll a bit better but even they as I said do no better than Starmer
    How accurate is hypothetical polling of potential alternative leaders? I doubt most people have enough sense of what Hunt or Wallace or Truss is like for such polling to be particularly reliable. (The polling will have been more accurate for better known figures like Heseltine and Johnson, I’d’ve guessed.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Le lol



  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Wont be a surprise when it becomes clear that RU has culminated in Donbas, Putin calls for a ceasefire and uses it to regroup.

    And some useful idiots will believe it is the time to sue for peace.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
    6-9 month's on average, IIRC from my time Inspecting Homes. Of course some people last a lot longer.
    The worst thing the family can do, again IIRC, is to move an elderly resident from one care setting to another.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077
    On topic.

    “Given that it looks as though Tory MPs are waiting till after the June 23rd by elections to happen”

    Apologise for being controversial, but what have you seen and hear Mike that makes you say that with such confidence? I can’t find any evidence they are waiting, the impression I have is it’s out of control, out of control in the sense of they can submit letters quietly but they seem to want the world to know they are are distancing themselves from Boris.

    My idea is if they wanted extra votes to perhaps squeak over a line, waiting for by election losses could be that. But it might not be as coordinated as your “ Given that it looks as though Tory MPs are waiting till after the June 23rd by elections to happen” statement, it’s more having reflected on things since not just the Gray Report but Boris appalling reaction to it, such as his unconvincing interview with mumsnet that’s the driving it. Besides, if Boris MPs still want Boris, they will point to by election losses mid term that are won back at generals elections, so no big deal wouldn’t they?.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    IanB2 said:

    And both Canada and Mexico essentially have to follow US trade policies and rules. Philip's missed the target with his post; being next to a large trading bloc essentially leaves you with the choice between being a rule-taker or doing immense self-harm.
    Canada don’t, for example, share food standards with the US. Trucks carrying food from the Lower 48 to Alaska must be protected by a seal on the truck doors. You can’t deliver some of the contents to Canada on the way to Alaska.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
    Anyone else yes, Big Dog no. He's won the vote, end of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195

    6-9 month's on average, IIRC from my time Inspecting Homes. Of course some people last a lot longer.
    The worst thing the family can do, again IIRC, is to move an elderly resident from one care setting to another.
    I do some work for the Care Commission. Those statistics are still right. It causes considerable angst when a home is performing poorly, recognising that closing it is very likely to accelerate the deaths of some of the residents.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 960
    Mike, you are going soft, he deerves all he gets, the old maxim what goes around comes around etc
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    Dr Oz will face Dem's Fetterman in what promises to be one of the great battles of 2022 cycle.

    Do you reckon? Will Dr Oz not walk it in a midterm against the president's party whose candidate is going through hushed-up but rumoured serious health issues?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Those videos were obviously fake from the start, and were debunked in seconds on Twitter. Eg the first is clearly occurring in winter
    And pbvs not at the Stade de France. At least one is CDG airport.

    Very impressive from Ian Byrne MP in the debate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2022

    How accurate is hypothetical polling of potential alternative leaders? I doubt most people have enough sense of what Hunt or Wallace or Truss is like for such polling to be particularly reliable. (The polling will have been more accurate for better known figures like Heseltine and Johnson, I’d’ve guessed.)
    It is accurate enough and was accurate enough when Major won in 1992 and Johnson won in 2019.

    So the anti Johnsonites can whinge as much as they want but only Tory Mzps and Tory members like me get to choose our PM until the next general election in 2024 thanks to the Tory landslide of 2019 and Johnson will not be removed unless clear polling evidence of an alternative leader leading Starmer, which there isn't.

    Hunt is a former Foreign Secretary, Truss is Foreign Secretary, Patel is Home Secretary the idea the public don't know who the top ranked Tories are beyond Johnson is a pathetic excuse
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2022
    ydoethur said:

    It's a ten minute walk from New Street to Curzon Street...

    Edit - also, you're making some false assumptions about the speed of the trains from New Street. When the Pendolinos are retired they will not be replaced with more titling trains, because HS2 will be carrying the fast traffic. So you can extend journey times to London on the WCML (which will in any case be needed for more pathways).

    You will still be able to get to London from New Street, but it will take about 100 minutes. As against that, there will be more frequent and probably rather cheaper trains.

    So your five minutes has become 45, but at lower cost and more regular intervals.
    Nonsense on timing.

    It's a good half mile between the station entrances. That's 15 minutes but only between the station entrances. Then you have to add in the time to get through the barriers at New Street and then up to the station entrance, which in my experience can be quite a long time, and then quite a bit of time again at Curzon Street. Any sane person is going to allow themselves at least 30 minutes to get across town in total. Probably a bit more if you're in possession of an HS2 ticket costing an arm and a leg and want to make sure you're not going to have a sliding doors moment.... I said 30 minutes but it could be more.

    And even now it's only 1 hour 23 minutes from New Street to Euston. Check the timetable. Probably 1 hour 20 minutes or less by the 2030s with the next generation of trains.* So that's a 35 minute difference between the claimed 45 minute HS2 journey time (which might yet prove to be as unreliable as their financial claims).

    So that's 5 minutes saving, at most, at the the cost of the effort and stress of having to leg it across town and pay a lot more for the privilege.

    *Edit. I am a tad reluctant to accept your point that the people of Wolverhampton should learn to live with crap slower trains replacing their current fast trains, as the price of bailing out HS2.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    carnforth said:

    Canada don’t, for example, share food standards with the US. Trucks carrying food from the Lower 48 to Alaska must be protected by a seal on the truck doors. You can’t deliver some of the contents to Canada on the way to Alaska.
    Bit like shipping to RoI via Norn, then?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    DavidL said:

    If Boris resigned would England bat any better? Probably not*. Would the government have a radical change in direction? Almost certainly not. Would Ukraine suddenly go better? Very probably not, possibly the reverse. Would we have a less severe cost of living crisis? Nope.

    I think we are a point when Boris needs to just soak up some of the vitriol and grumpiness for a while. The Tories will probably need to change leader before the next election, but as Saint Augustine would say, not yet.

    * of course if I was wrong about this he should certainly resign today.

    The answer to a radical change of direction surely depends who they go for?

    A Hunt Tugenhat type is a radical change back to Cameron conservatism.
    A Patel Dorries type is further radical change down the authoritarian path.
    A Javid/Zahawi/Barclay/Wallace is a march back from spin to competence.
    Raab gives us neither the spin nor the competence.
    God knows what we get from Truss.

    Sunak and Gove seem the only ones to keep us on a similar political path.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    Anyone else yes, Big Dog no. He's won the vote, end of.
    No - He would not survive long with 110 of his mps causing chaos in government
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Scott_xP said:

    It's by design.

    When politicians can't talk about the biggest and most damaging policy decision of a generation, they have to talk about trivialities.
    Not only politics. The R4 Today this morning interviewed Robbie Williams. This is a bit of a trend.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,511

    How accurate is hypothetical polling of potential alternative leaders? I doubt most people have enough sense of what Hunt or Wallace or Truss is like for such polling to be particularly reliable. (The polling will have been more accurate for better known figures like Heseltine and Johnson, I’d’ve guessed.)
    I think that's a key point. But even if politicians are well-known polling can be misleading. I well remember the hypothetical polling saying that the dud Brown would be a very popular Prime Minister. Then, after a short honeymoon, he was the least popular in history. Partly his own ineptitude in having no idea what he wanted to do when he reached the office he had seemed for for so long, partly his lack of political judgement, and partly events, in particular an economic meltdown.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375

    Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
    It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.

    If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077

    In an effort to claim the most tasteless post ever, is there a book on the date of her demise?
    PB is a nest of horrible Republican vipers 😠

    I just want to throw my arms around her and give her a big hug like she’s my own Nan.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    DavidL said:

    I do some work for the Care Commission. Those statistics are still right. It causes considerable angst when a home is performing poorly, recognising that closing it is very likely to accelerate the deaths of some of the residents.
    Thanks Mr L. The 'closing concern' was around 20 years ago, too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    edited June 2022

    No - He would not survive long with 110 of his mps causing chaos in government
    In addition to the already exceptional efforts of him and most of his Cabinet.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    No - He would not survive long with 110 of his mps causing chaos in government
    I thought causing chaos is what the payroll vote have been doing since he was elected? No?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333


    God knows what we get from Truss.

    Lots of Instagram posts and, according to my late mother, "a mouth that couldn't tackle a fork full of chips".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2022

    At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.

    And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.

    What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
    What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited June 2022

    It's not how I recall the situation, either. The obsession with hourly (it seems) polling hadn't really taken hold either.
    The type of polling we take for normal nowadays did not exist back in 1990 - because the cost prior to the internet appearing made it utterly impossible and unaffordable.

    In 1990 you wouldn't be asking people favourability questions because that would cost the modern equivalent of £2-4000 a question...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846

    being a natural scruff myself , I do have sympathy for him . It is not contempt for an occasion but a genuine inability to dress to the high standards of formal dress. Just like some people cannot drive or draw or do math , some people genuinely cannot dress or look smart
    Maths.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195

    The answer to a radical change of direction surely depends who they go for?

    A Hunt Tugenhat type is a radical change back to Cameron conservatism.
    A Patel Dorries type is further radical change down the authoritarian path.
    A Javid/Zahawi/Barclay/Wallace is a march back from spin to competence.
    Raab gives us neither the spin nor the competence.
    God knows what we get from Truss.

    Sunak and Gove seem the only ones to keep us on a similar political path.
    I think that you are seriously overestimating the government's room for manouver. A recession is now built in, spaffing more cash will make little difference in the short run and may do even more damage in the medium term. Inflation will fall but to a much higher base than we have been used to or are comfortable with. Strikes are going to be endemic, particularly in the public sector. The majority are going to find that they have to tighten their belts way more than we are used to. There is nothing that can be done about this, even if government suddenly got competent.
    By next summer there may be more options and choices available but right now a new leader is simply going to be tarnished with all this.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712

    Bit like shipping to RoI via Norn, then?
    In theory, although RoI truckers will tell you that the french have been breaking the seals on lorries from the RoI at Calais, to check the contents, even though they are not supposed to. They are not amused.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Wont be a surprise when it becomes clear that RU has culminated in Donbas, Putin calls for a ceasefire and uses it to regroup.

    Seems Russian artillery can punch a hole in the Ukrainian defences, but the rest of the Russian forces can't follow up and capitalise. And lose significant men and materials in the process of discovering this. Repeat ad nauseum.

    What will change is the kit the Ukrainians have to throw into counter-attacks. The Ukrainians might well agree a ceasefire only when Russian troops are forced back to the border. They might reasonably expect a culmination to change into a rout, when the twentieth Russian forces face twenty-first century hardware. Russian long-range demolition only works if they have the longer reach. When Ukraine has the longer reach, that artillery is getting out of there....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    pm215 said:

    A military-history blog I read had a recent post which was a glossary of this kind of technical term. Its definition is:

    "Culminate. A term from Clausewitz (book 7, chapter 5), an offensive culminates (or reaches its culminating point) when the advantage in strength no longer favors the attacker sufficiently enough to continue pushing forward. Crucially, this does not mean the offensive ends: an attacker may not know their offensive has culminated and may keep ‘pushing’ and achieving nothing for some time. At the same time, the culmination of an offensive operation (see Operations) does not end a war – the attacker may merely rebuild strength (reinforcements, supplies, organization) to push again later, something that is generally termed an ‘operational pause.’"
    The Ukrainians had said that Russia was massing troops around Izium for a push towards Sloviansk, and on the southern front for a push towards Zaporizhzhia, so it may well be that they can redeploy troops and still take Severodonetsk.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Test Match: today's start delayed due to rain!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited June 2022
    They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.


  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.

    If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
    I am not sure what it would take the greasy piglet to resign. He's certainly not going to listen to fellow ministers. Perhaps Carrie?
    If she's still around.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    Seems Russian artillery can punch a hole in the Ukrainian defences, but the rest of the Russian forces can't follow up and capitalise. And lose significant men and materials in the process of discovering this. Repeat ad nauseum.

    What will change is the kit the Ukrainians have to throw into counter-attacks. The Ukrainians might well agree a ceasefire only when Russian troops are forced back to the border. They might reasonably expect a culmination to change into a rout, when the twentieth Russian forces face twenty-first century hardware. Russian long-range demolition only works if they have the longer reach. When Ukraine has the longer reach, that artillery is getting out of there....
    Wonder if Putin will declare victory soon?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.

    That omitted not is the greatest Freudian slip of all time. It is out of your hands now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
    She looks a lot healthier than her ten year younger cousin, the Duke of Kent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2022

    Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
    A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-11-25-mn-7462-story.html.

    Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/richard-heller-how-i-helped-stir-mps-rebellion-ended-era-1867352

    There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.

    If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
    For Bozo 190-179 would be a decisive victory and enough to keep going...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375
    DavidL said:

    I think that you are seriously overestimating the government's room for manouver. A recession is now built in, spaffing more cash will make little difference in the short run and may do even more damage in the medium term. Inflation will fall but to a much higher base than we have been used to or are comfortable with. Strikes are going to be endemic, particularly in the public sector. The majority are going to find that they have to tighten their belts way more than we are used to. There is nothing that can be done about this, even if government suddenly got competent.
    By next summer there may be more options and choices available but right now a new leader is simply going to be tarnished with all this.
    For most leaders, that would be a good reason to keep them on, to absorb the external toxicity and let clean hands take over afterwards.

    The trouble in the case is the quantity of toxins Johnson is excreting himself. Leave him in place for another year and the situation may well be beyond repair.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    edited June 2022
    DavidL said:

    I think that you are seriously overestimating the government's room for manouver. A recession is now built in, spaffing more cash will make little difference in the short run and may do even more damage in the medium term. Inflation will fall but to a much higher base than we have been used to or are comfortable with. Strikes are going to be endemic, particularly in the public sector. The majority are going to find that they have to tighten their belts way more than we are used to. There is nothing that can be done about this, even if government suddenly got competent.
    By next summer there may be more options and choices available but right now a new leader is simply going to be tarnished with all this.
    Governments are not all about economics. Stuff like how independent will the judiciary be, how do we talk about our neighbours and ourselves, is the BBC public or private, emphasis given to the environment vs health and wellbeing vs economy all matter too. Even on the economics, whilst the govt can do little to alleviate the short term pain (and what they can do they probably have to even if they instinctively don't want to a la Sunak), how we plan for the next couple of decades is really important as the world is going to change faster than anytime in our lifetimes over that period.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    HYUFD said:

    A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-11-25-mn-7462-story.html

    There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
    Worth noting that it's a single poll but its worth quoting this bit

    On Saturday, Tory party strategists were also buoyed by the performance of the London stock exchange, which soared at Friday’s close because of hopes for closer British cooperation with Europe as the Thatcher era ends.

    British investors were expressing confidence that either Heseltine, 57, Hurd, 60, or Major, 47, would be good news for business and would forge better ties with Europe and reduce interest rates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Wont be a surprise when it becomes clear that RU has culminated in Donbas, Putin calls for a ceasefire and uses it to regroup.

    That seems pretty likely given the refocused objectives. Consolidation presumably the priority once advances stall. And if there's a ceasefire allies will not like if Ukraine breaks it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    kle4 said:

    That seems pretty likely given the refocused objectives. Consolidation presumably the priority once advances stall. And if there's a ceasefire allies will not like if Ukraine breaks it.
    Why would Ukraine's allies accept or support a ceasefire especially one offered by Russia
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.


    K*nt and the Gang should have revived the strange and beautiful tradition of the Double A Side by simultaneously releasing it with their hautingly memorable ballad "Shitting on a Picture of the Queen".
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Governments are not all about economics. Stuff like how independent will the judiciary be, how do we talk about our neighbours and ourselves, is the BBC public or private, emphasis given to the environment vs health and wellbeing vs economy all matter too. Even on the economics, whilst the govt can do little to alleviate the short term pain (and what they can do they probably have to even if they instinctively don't want to a la Sunak), how we plan for the next couple of decades is really important as the world is going to change faster than anytime in our lifetimes over that period.
    Exactly. A government that believed in Parliamentary democracy and the rule of law would be a major step-up from the one we have currently, whatever the economics. I am not sure any realistic replacement for Johnson would deliver that, though. That’s how low the Conservative party has sunk.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Stade de France-gate (closed) still rumbling on, mightily.

    Macron is now blaming it on ‘social media’

    No, me neither


    https://twitter.com/f_desouche/status/1533021680200720384?s=21&t=StVnzHhUdx1F6bmMYQskFA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Nonsense on timing.

    It's a good half mile between the station entrances. That's 15 minutes but only between the station entrances. Then you have to add in the time to get through the barriers at New Street and then up to the station entrance, which in my experience can be quite a long time, and then quite a bit of time again at Curzon Street. Any sane person is going to allow themselves at least 30 minutes to get across town in total. Probably a bit more if you're in possession of an HS2 ticket costing an arm and a leg and want to make sure you're not going to have a sliding doors moment.... I said 30 minutes but it could be more.

    And even now it's only 1 hour 23 minutes from New Street to Euston. Check the timetable. Probably 1 hour 20 minutes or less by the 2030s with the next generation of trains.* So that's a 35 minute difference between the claimed 45 minute HS2 journey time (which might yet prove to be as unreliable as their financial claims).

    So that's 5 minutes saving, at most, at the the cost of the effort and stress of having to leg it across town and pay a lot more for the privilege.

    *Edit. I am a tad reluctant to accept your point that the people of Wolverhampton should learn to live with crap slower trains replacing their current fast trains, as the price of bailing out HS2.
    15 minutes to walk half a mile? And you accuse me of talking nonsense? Ten minutes is a maximum. When I walk New Street to Moor Street, it’s seven minutes, and I’m no paragon of fitness.

    As for New Street, I use it regularly. Three minutes max to get out. And the same the other end, and trains will be leaving for London every 4-5 minutes so there’s no need to worry about timings.

    If you’d looked below you would have seen I addressed the point about slower trains. I’m not sure tbh how even if they were slower that would be worse than the appalling delays New Street and the WCML south of Rugby cause now.

    I think your post says more about your reflexive dislike of HS2 than anything else.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.


    Makes me proud to be British.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Has Boris had a serious accident or health issue? No.

    I don't care what Boris has done I only care about maximising the Tory voteshare as a Tory member and unless another Tory leader is shown in polls to have a clear lead over Starmer Labour, which none are, then Boris stays as far as I am concerned. Especially given most alternatives, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Sunak, Gove, Truss etc poll even worse with the voters than Boris anyway now.

    If Boris went I would back Ben Wallace or Javid as the only alternatives who poll a bit better but even they as I said do no better than Starmer
    Ignore all the other replies to your post HY, they are glib and a bit rude, my reply here actually helps you get it right.

    The polling you are referring to - I won’t use strong words like bogus, perhaps fantasy - but don’t reflect the reality of how voters would see someone after they are crowned, after the rigours of the contest, all the oxygen of publicity, authority and backing they would get with the crown. And the ditching of unpopular policies and comical cabinet appointments.

    More importantly truth is Boris has the advantage of the crown right now but is polling right down with them not way above them. For Boris, it’s all gone Richard II. To many mistakes made, impression set in stone. No way back.

    Surely HY you would think about your leadership vote this summer on something more than a fantasy poll from polling company? You would listen to their programme, how they actually manage the rigours of the contest, the debates, the interviews?

    I will go further HY. You are definitely not voting Javid, the polls you quote seem oblivious to the inherent vice of his past tax dodging we may only have a small part of the iceberg. And remember moment he was ambushed by anti vaxxer and was stumped so turned to the medical team for help was so rubbish?

    It’s about carrying out due diligence and finding inherent vice isn’t it - so it doesn’t quickly go pair shaped after the initial poll bounce. After that and the crowing your fantasy polls show a different result when it’s all for real. But it’s your own political instinct that has to work out how long the bounce lasts for when the person is PM for real.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    kjh said:

    I agree. Should be a good party again, although I don't envy those who have to plan for her death prior to the events as must have been the case for the Jubilee.

    HYUFD now predicting how long the Queen will live is bizarre.
    An inferred longevity from the Queen Mum is one thing — from the Duke of Edinburgh suggests a rather loose grasp of genetics.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    K*nt and the Gang should have revived the strange and beautiful tradition of the Double A Side by simultaneously releasing it with their hautingly memorable ballad "Shitting on a Picture of the Queen".
    Official Chart website has them 20th as far as I can see. Can't move on twitter for fakes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    Official Chart website has them 20th as far as I can see. Can't move on twitter for fakes.
    Click on the tab marked "sales".
    You'll be re-assured.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356

    An inferred longevity from the Queen Mum is one thing — from the Duke of Edinburgh suggests a rather loose grasp of genetics.
    Though ER & DoE were cousins (cue Duelling Banjos).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    An inferred longevity from the Queen Mum is one thing — from the Duke of Edinburgh suggests a rather loose grasp of genetics.
    Not completely. It is indicative of a healthy enough lifestyle to have reached that age. Also spouses have a 66% increased chance of dying shortly after their spouses death, so having passed that hurdle boosts her life expectancy a tad more.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    IshmaelZ said:

    No. Nor will be.
    Well, there sort of might be. As a thought exercise, imagine a Festival to celebrate HMQ's 71st year, and then see what it costs to insure against cancellation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2022

    Ignore all the other replies to your post HY, they are glib and a bit rude, my reply here actually helps you get it right.

    The polling you are referring to - I won’t use strong words like bogus, perhaps fantasy - but don’t reflect the reality of how voters would see someone after they are crowned, after the rigours of the contest, all the oxygen of publicity, authority and backing they would get with the crown. And the ditching of unpopular policies and comical cabinet appointments.

    More importantly truth is Boris has the advantage of the crown right now but is polling right down with them not way above them. For Boris, it’s all gone Richard II. To many mistakes made, impression set in stone. No way back.

    Surely HY you would think about your leadership vote this summer on something more than a fantasy poll from polling company? You would listen to their programme, how they actually manage the rigours of the contest, the debates, the interviews?

    I will go further HY. You are definitely not voting Javid, the polls you quote seem oblivious to the inherent vice of his past tax dodging we may only have a small part of the iceberg. And remember moment he was ambushed by anti vaxxer and was stumped so turned to the medical team for help was so rubbish?

    It’s about carrying out due diligence and finding inherent vice isn’t it - so it doesn’t quickly go pair shaped after the initial poll bounce. After that and the crowing your fantasy polls show a different result when it’s all for real. But it’s your own political instinct that has to work out how long the bounce lasts for when the person is PM for real.
    No, in my experience hypothetical polls are pretty accurate, as they were for Johnson in 2019, Cameron in 2005 and Major in 1992. Or indeed for Blair in 1994. Polling was also clear in 2015 David Miliband was more electable than Ed and in 2015 Burnham more electable than Corbyn and was correct as was polling in 1997 and 2001 showing Clarke more electable than Hague or IDS.

    So on that basis there is little evidence removing Johnson makes a difference and maybe only Wallace would do better. Though of course if Johnson is removed you might even get a harder right PM like Patel or Truss or Raab now if they got to the final 2 and told the members what they want to hear, there is no guarantee it would be PM Wallace or Hunt or Sunak
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    dixiedean said:

    Click on the tab marked "sales".
    You'll be re-assured.
    Oh I see.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    HYUFD said:

    No, in my experience hypothetical polls are pretty accurate, as they were for Johnson in 2019, Cameron in 2005 and Major in 1992. Or indeed for Blair in 1994. Polling was also clear in 2015 David Miliband was more electable than Ed and in 2015 Burnham more electable than Corbyn and was correct as was polling in 1997 and 2001 showing Clarke more electable than Hague or IDS.

    So on that basis there is little evidence removing Johnson makes a difference and maybe only Wallace would do better. Though of course if Johnson is removed you might even get a harder right PM like Patel or Truss now if they got to the final 2 and told the members what they want to hear, there is no guarantee it would be PM Wallace or Hunt
    And with Wallace the public don't really know him yet. His plaudits come from not being an obvious twat and there being wars on in Afghanistan and Ukraine to boost his profile. I would expect he would be an improvement but I very much doubt the broader public have a settled opinion on him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    Wont be a surprise when it becomes clear that RU has culminated in Donbas, Putin calls for a ceasefire and uses it to regroup.

    When Russia pulled back in the West and regrouped in the East, a number of commentators thought they had enough, between reserves and redeployment, for one more offensive.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Exactly. A government that believed in Parliamentary democracy and the rule of law would be a major step-up from the one we have currently, whatever the economics. I am not sure any realistic replacement for Johnson would deliver that, though. That’s how low the Conservative party has sunk.

    It isn't for government to believe or disbelieve in Parliamentary democracy. That is Parliament's job. If it doesn't do it no-one else can. Parliament, not government is our supreme authority. If we don't like the one we have we have regular chances to change it.

    The rule of law is of course enforced by our court system and the massive structure of civil and criminal law which is highly developed in this country. Government's job is to obey its demands and be accountable to it. Government, in many forms, is in court every sitting day doing exactly that.



  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    edited June 2022

    Oh I see.
    And Lo. It's gone.
    Melted into the ether like the boos for Boris.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Morning all. I'm more convinced of the change in the air principle today. Its all waiting the other side of the BH weekend. The booing, the mood music, it all leads to a bitter resignation. I know personal anecdotes aren't worth a hill of beans but even family members ive conversed with recently (last 3 days) who have been brexity borisy boosterers are saying his behaviour, the lies, the drift, the shittiness of it all are too much. Theres a sense of scales dropping even from the eyes most reluctant to see.
    He can go as an unpopular arse or he can cling on and become properly despised. A boogeyman for the century. A scumbag, a scoundrel, a real shit.
    Go on Wednesday Boris. You get to be a day better than Brown. For the pre pandemic chuckles only you get that. A day better than the Gorgon.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    Stade de France-gate (closed) still rumbling on, mightily.

    Macron is now blaming it on ‘social media’

    No, me neither


    https://twitter.com/f_desouche/status/1533021680200720384?s=21&t=StVnzHhUdx1F6bmMYQskFA

    This was a good morning after video from a respected fan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86Bq4FzSSIE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    Seems Russian artillery can punch a hole in the Ukrainian defences, but the rest of the Russian forces can't follow up and capitalise. And lose significant men and materials in the process of discovering this. Repeat ad nauseum.

    What will change is the kit the Ukrainians have to throw into counter-attacks. The Ukrainians might well agree a ceasefire only when Russian troops are forced back to the border. They might reasonably expect a culmination to change into a rout, when the twentieth Russian forces face twenty-first century hardware. Russian long-range demolition only works if they have the longer reach. When Ukraine has the longer reach, that artillery is getting out of there....
    Which is where the longer range missiles for the MLRS system come in. If you can hit a target 100Km plus away, with GPS level accuracy, then opposing artillery is dead. Unless they are very good at distributed shoot and scoot - rather than lining up guns in a row, with a tea tent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    HYUFD said:

    What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.

    Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands

    Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office

    They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE

    You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222

    And with Wallace the public don't really know him yet. His plaudits come from not being an obvious twat and there being wars on in Afghanistan and Ukraine to boost his profile. I would expect he would be an improvement but I very much doubt the broader public have a settled opinion on him.
    Does not Wallace have his name underneath the most recent set of army cuts, even if he might blame his predecessor? Whether it matters depends on opponents making an issue of it, of course.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473
    IshmaelZ said:

    Editorial note: that is a reply to Nadine
    This from the link made me smile..

    https://twitter.com/stephenblanchar/status/1532957354832044033/photo/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.

    If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
    One reason Thatcher hesitated was the expressions of support from local parties coming into Downing Street.

    The MPs were the ones who removed her. She was still quite popular with the wider party.

    Johnson cannot count on that, I think.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Iro earlier posts, hypothetical polling is garbage in that all the unselected and unelected hypotheticals are never actually tested in leadership or at the polls and ousted leaders arent able to navigate a recovery so fools can later cut and paste any old shitty theory they like about 'proof' of correct or incorrect choices.
    We know nothing of the road not travelled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2022

    Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands

    Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office

    They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE

    You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.

    However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    HYUFD said:

    What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.

    Right now its the momentum of MPs that matters. I am not talking about non-Tory voters or even Tory members. Just MPs.

    You talk such laughable nonsense with that arrogant haughty tone that only true PC-voting Tories can pull off.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    Does not Wallace have his name underneath the most recent set of army cuts, even if he might blame his predecessor? Whether it matters depends on opponents making an issue of it, of course.
    The voting public don't give a shit about defence cuts as longs as "cap badges", the Red Arrows, BoBMF, etc. survive.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473
    edited June 2022

    BBC1 has definitely tacked to the right over the last year under new direction. That's evident not just in how things are reported, but what is selected to be reported. Quite a lot of stories damaging to the government have either been ignored or skated over. Newsnight's output is still more critical (in the right sense of the word - analytical), though I'm not sure how long that will last.
    I don't think it's tacking to the right it's losing it's nerve. It's not a good place for the BBC to be but they are left with little choice. For those old enough to remember Thatcher did the same. In fact she was worse. She changed the DG and seriously emasculated the organisation

    Ref Alasdaire Milne
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    One reason Thatcher hesitated was the expressions of support from local parties coming into Downing Street.

    The MPs were the ones who removed her. She was still quite popular with the wider party.

    Johnson cannot count on that, I think.
    Telegraph reported yesterday he has lost the grass root constituencies
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640

    They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.


    I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.

    Every day’s a school day.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    algarkirk said:

    It isn't for government to believe or disbelieve in Parliamentary democracy. That is Parliament's job. If it doesn't do it no-one else can. Parliament, not government is our supreme authority. If we don't like the one we have we have regular chances to change it.

    The rule of law is of course enforced by our court system and the massive structure of civil and criminal law which is highly developed in this country. Government's job is to obey its demands and be accountable to it. Government, in many forms, is in court every sitting day doing exactly that.
    The government can change the rules. I totally agree that this one is doing so with the aid of Conservative MPs. Hence my final point.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    HYUFD said:

    A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-11-25-mn-7462-story.html.

    Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/richard-heller-how-i-helped-stir-mps-rebellion-ended-era-1867352

    There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
    Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    HYUFD said:

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.

    However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
    You voted Plaid
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    dixiedean said:

    Makes me proud to be British.
    On the upside for Boris Kate Bush is a Tory Fan Girl
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    edited June 2022

    I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.

    Every day’s a school day.
    Not on normal Court events.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    You voted Plaid
    Can we not forgive HYUFD and forget one bizarre youthful incident?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375

    Telegraph reported yesterday he has lost the grass root constituencies
    It's more significant if Boris has lost The Telegraph. Partly for the ongoing brouhaha, but also for BoJo's value post-Premiership. If he becomes less popular as he hangs on, that's going to cost him.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.

    Every day’s a school day.
    That has to be a backronym, surely.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands

    Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office

    They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE

    You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
    When Patel wins?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    On the upside for Boris Kate Bush is a Tory Fan Girl
    Running up that (extremely steep) hill right now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    HYUFD said:



    However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?

    PM Priti would be relatively benign. She might want to transform the country into something similar to that depicted in Jack London's "Iron Heel" but she so's staggeringly incompetent she wouldn't be able to realise any of her authoritarian fantasies.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Mitchell is out. 251-5
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    dixiedean said:

    Running up that (extremely steep) hill right now.
    Not so much running at her age, more power walking up that slope TBF
This discussion has been closed.