Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
I suspect that he means that *Russia* doesn’t view France as being responsible for the humiliation and getting contracts to build things in/for Russia.
Humiliation would *start*, probably, at Ukraine not losing any territory that they held pre 2022.
Nothing Ukraine can do will ever humiliate Russia (in VVP's worldview) because the conflict is actually with the west.
I think the 'humiliation' reference is related to the rapid lifting of sanctions once the shooting stops as they are a visible manifestion of the west's ability to coerce Russia.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
I'm surprised. I'd have thought Hunt is the definite candidate of the centre.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
"both Major and Heseltine"
Nope, Heseltine only and Thatcher in a Mail poll of marginals before the first ballot
Great! Thanks for confirming that your post earlier was wrong.
Nope, I posted that post earlier too, so my point stands 100% correct.
There was polling evidence before the first ballot an alternative leader to Thatcher ie Heseltine, would poll better v Labour than she was in key marginal seats
Was there polling evidence from the comparable time? That is: from before a challenge was begun (before it was known that there was now going to be a leadership contest) and before any candidates were officially declared?
If not, we have no comparison. Polls from during the campaign itself do not compare to polling that could influence whether or not Tory MPs may believe it is a good idea to actually have a challenge or not.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
Iro earlier posts, hypothetical polling is garbage in that all the unselected and unelected hypotheticals are never actually tested in leadership or at the polls and ousted leaders arent able to navigate a recovery so fools can later cut and paste any old shitty theory they like about 'proof' of correct or incorrect choices. We know nothing of the road not travelled.
Absolutely agree Woolie. Like your Satre way of putting it. HY poll is a snapshot, roads not taken counterfactuals - the best bet for HY voting in the leadership election is thinking through the counterfactuals.
David Milliband for example probably had more name recognition than his brother at time of fantasy poll, but in longer term he may have proved too associated with the foreign policy and EU deals of the Brown years, and probably unapologetic about that, and Ed won due to opposition to Iraq debacle David didn’t/couldn’t distance himself from, Ed winning with support from unions for change of economic direction from New Labour David would not have done sowing seeds of split party.
So although HY poll is true as a snapshot, how it likely played out, David too much of the wrong sort of baggage and wrong views for the era, more divisive split party for years could be, arguably the stronger candidate in the Lab leadership election would have gone on to a worse general election result.
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Interesting discussion. I live in Birmingham and surely for Birmingham residents the key question at issue is what is the difference in travelling time from where you live in Birmingham to each of the two railways stations, New Street and Curzon Street? For Birmingham residents, travelling between the two stations isn't relevant unless your best route into the city from your home is by train to New Street. According to Google maps, its 16 mins by taxi from where I live to New Street and 20 mins by taxi from where I live to Curzon Street. So a 4 minute difference.
I think cost will be a factor too. It will depend on how much is charged for HS2 as against the semi-fast or remaining fast WCML services.
Incidentally following a little research, I find Avanti have ordered a series of Class 800 and 801 Azumas for the WCML. So they won't have tilt, however because of their acceleration they should still manage similar times to current trains.
The question is, how many will go through New Street? I would guess around 3-4 an hour. 2 from Wolverhampton and either one or two from Holyhead.
The big loser if it's 2ph from Holyhead would be Lichfield, which would be left without HSTs to London at all (one of HS2's stupidest mistakes was to put the Trent Valley junction at Handsacre rather than at Lichfield Trent Valley).
But every other station running to New Street would benefit hugely from capacity freed up at New Street. Every Pendolino removed from there (and there are around 14 per hour at the moment) frees up enough space for three other trains.
And anyone travelling to London wouldn't have to go to New Street, which would be a bonus for them too.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls also show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
He should resign as he is unfit for the office he holds and has lost vast swathes of the country
Your argument over alternatives is irrelevant, as he could suffer a serious accident or health issue or worse and would have to be replaced
You obsess over polling, but there are replacements for Boris and no matter there comes a time when one has to do the right thing and that time is now for conservative mps to vote him out of office
Has Boris had a serious accident or health issue? No.
I don't care what Boris has done I only care about maximising the Tory voteshare as a Tory member and unless another Tory leader is shown in polls to have a clear lead over Starmer Labour, which none are, then Boris stays as far as I am concerned. Especially given most alternatives, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Sunak, Gove, Truss etc poll even worse with the voters than Boris anyway now.
If Boris went I would back Ben Wallace or Javid as the only alternatives who poll a bit better but even they as I said do no better than Starmer
Your first sentence is just weird
He could have an accident as we are posting and you spectacularly miss the point
Your are a self confessed Christian but you do not care about Boris total disrespect for the people and the hurt he has caused as long as the polls do not show a successor
You are quite unique and I expect very shortly you will be singing the praises of the new conservative leader and pm
In good King Charles's golden days, When Loyalty no harm meant; A Zealous High-Church man I was,1 And so I gain'd Preferment.2 Unto my Flock I daily Preach'd, Kings are by God appointed, And Damn'd are those who dare resist,3 Or touch the Lord's Anointed.4 And this is law,5 I will maintain Unto my Dying Day, Sir. That whatsoever King may reign, I will be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
"Keep the change? From a fiver? Thank you sir!" - H2G2. Ford buys 6 pints.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
I agree. There have always been the renta lefty types, but this is much bigger than that. I have been a Conservative voter most of my life, and I probably wouldn't have booed Gordon Brown out of respect for his office, but I definitely would boo Johnson for the disrespect that he has shown for his office, and the whole electorate.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
I meant that if that were the real reason, he'd cover it up with something else more palatable, like having to take time off to write a biography of Peppa Pig.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
I meant that if that were the real reason, he'd cover it up with something else more palatable, like having to take time off to write a biography of Peppa Pig.
Indeed, and how appropriate that would be. Not least because every day that passes he bears a greater and greater resemblance to said children's cartoon character.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
I suspect that he means that *Russia* doesn’t view France as being responsible for the humiliation and getting contracts to build things in/for Russia.
Humiliation would *start*, probably, at Ukraine not losing any territory that they held pre 2022.
Nothing Ukraine can do will ever humiliate Russia (in VVP's worldview) because the conflict is actually with the west.
I think the 'humiliation' reference is related to the rapid lifting of sanctions once the shooting stops as they are a visible manifestion of the west's ability to coerce Russia.
The fundamental problem is that Russia is a de facto dictatorship with a nuclear arsenal of both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. There is a real risk that if Putin sees a risk of humiliation in Ukraine, he will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, sold to his people as necessary to save Russian lives. What, then, would be the West's response? That's why humiliation is to be avoided. The best that we can do is to continue supplying arms to Ukraine in order to make Putin's adventuring as painful as possible while, at the same, giving him a way not to resort to the nuclear option. Both the supply of arms to Ukraine and the negotiations are essential.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
I meant that if that were the real reason, he'd cover it up with something else more palatable, like having to take time off to write a biography of Peppa Pig.
Indeed, and how appropriate that would be. Not least because every day that passes he bears a greater and greater resemblance to said children's cartoon character.
Oh? What is Ms Pig like? Some of us sort of lost track after the Woodentops and Fireball XL5.
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
The cost of drinking in a pub has consistently accelerated compared with general inflation for many years. This is a key factor in many people simply not going to the pub anymore and also the pub being a much smaller factor in the lives of the under 30s where the tradition and experience of going to the pub has fallen away to a large extent.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
I'm on Mordaunt at good odds. Can easily see her emerging as the choice.
I can't. The fact remains until and unless we see some polling which definitively suggests any potential candidate doing much better than the incumbent, I suspect we may not even see a Confidence Vote and if we do Boris Johnson will win it.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
I agree. There have always been the renta lefty types, but this is much bigger than that. I have been a Conservative voter most of my life, and I probably wouldn't have booed Gordon Brown out of respect for his office, but I definitely would boo Johnson for the disrespect that he has shown for his office, and the whole electorate.
I think it's feeding into other things too. There just appears to be a low level general discontent around with everything. It's all being lumped on the PM. Even when it isn't his fault.
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
I meant that if that were the real reason, he'd cover it up with something else more palatable, like having to take time off to write a biography of Peppa Pig.
Indeed, and how appropriate that would be. Not least because every day that passes he bears a greater and greater resemblance to said children's cartoon character.
Oh? What is Ms Pig like? Some of us sort of lost track after the Woodentops and Fireball XL5.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
I know Alistair Campbell thought it should have been on the news yesterday but I suspect the booing will be once politics resumes on Monday.
Why? It only takes one person booing for it to be heard in a crowd. It is not newsworthy at all
That's rubbish. One person booing in a crowd of 10,000 cheering is not going to be heard unless you are right alongside him. It was clearly not just one person booing - the large majority, I'd say.
I'd also add that the legacy of the Iraq invasion has been an absolute disaster for the West. Many of the more neutral counties, like India and China, see fairly close parallels between the Iraq and Ukraine invasions, and are therefore not particularly disposed to take sides with the West against Russia. These means that there is a fair likelihood that sanctions against Russia will be too leaky to succeed in weakening her sufficiently.
We know the PM doesn't want to go. Therefore any semi plausible face saving reason will not be convincing.
Perhaps Macron should have regular calls with him, and look for possible off ramps. We don’t want Boris humiliated or he might launch WW3.
Somewhat seriously, if the only way for Boris to save his job was to do something that risked escalating the war in Ukraine into a war between Britain and Russia which might but probably wouldn't end in nuclear armageddon, he'd do it, right?
What do you define as "risks escalating" though?
We should be doing everything short of going to war with Russia, even if that entails "risking escalating" such as supplying arms to Ukraine etc. Indeed we're already doing that and quite rightly too.
The UK certainly isn't doing "everything" short of going to war.
Heavy armour, artilllery, aircraft given to Ukraine to date by the UK: zero.
Whilst I don't often agree with you I do wonder sometimes whether we are talking a good game rather than actually delivering on it. We started off well with the NLAWs but we can't dine out on that forever. I do believe we are now sending some mid-range artillery as the Americans have green lighted it - perhaps we couldn't before because it was American made so needed permission to do so?
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
I don't think he would admit to physical frailty.
He might not admit to it, but it could easily become a reality. The man is doing one of the most demanding jobs in the world and he is as fat as a fattened hog. it is possible he avoids some of the stress by being as lazy as he can get away with and "delegating" as much as possible, but nonetheless he is heading for a serious problem.
I meant that if that were the real reason, he'd cover it up with something else more palatable, like having to take time off to write a biography of Peppa Pig.
Indeed, and how appropriate that would be. Not least because every day that passes he bears a greater and greater resemblance to said children's cartoon character.
Oh? What is Ms Pig like? Some of us sort of lost track after the Woodentops and Fireball XL5.
Pinky and or Perky, in 2D and colour.
THanks. Sounds pretty benign, if porcine, which is presumably the comparison being made.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls also show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
He should resign as he is unfit for the office he holds and has lost vast swathes of the country
Your argument over alternatives is irrelevant, as he could suffer a serious accident or health issue or worse and would have to be replaced
You obsess over polling, but there are replacements for Boris and no matter there comes a time when one has to do the right thing and that time is now for conservative mps to vote him out of office
Has Boris had a serious accident or health issue? No.
I don't care what Boris has done I only care about maximising the Tory voteshare as a Tory member and unless another Tory leader is shown in polls to have a clear lead over Starmer Labour, which none are, then Boris stays as far as I am concerned. Especially given most alternatives, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Sunak, Gove, Truss etc poll even worse with the voters than Boris anyway now.
If Boris went I would back Ben Wallace or Javid as the only alternatives who poll a bit better but even they as I said do no better than Starmer
Your first sentence is just weird
He could have an accident as we are posting and you spectacularly miss the point
Your are a self confessed Christian but you do not care about Boris total disrespect for the people and the hurt he has caused as long as the polls do not show a successor
You are quite unique and I expect very shortly you will be singing the praises of the new conservative leader and pm
His first sentence is weird because its such an obvious lie it could be a BBC News headline. Hasn't had a serious health issue? He nearly died of Covid and has visibly suffered from its after-effects.
"Health issues? No" sounds like some American spin doctor trying to insist Biden isn't senile and Trump isn't frail or that Clinton (H) didn't have some kind of episode getting in the limo.
We aren't Tory voters, we aren't stupid, we aren't going to just take lies and believe them as truths. So why patronise us in that way?
Nearly died of covid my bollocks. He had a few hours oxygen and was never ever ever near dying
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
That is surely the great unanswered quandary of politics right now. FWIW. Elongating the process is definitely not helping, and is making it harder for whoever comes next, with each day that passes. Folk just aren't buying their constant, increasingly ludicrous bs anymore.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
To me the answer is Boris. Boris, and the vipers around him, have made the party unpopular.
He didn’t March into the party’s in Downing Street and shut them down to match the rules he told us to follow - then spent months covering up and lying about it knowing it would be damaging if voters found out. Without that, that perfectly avoidable thing, the polls and PM ratings would be very different today Stodge, I am sure about it.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
That is surely the great unanswered quandary of politics right now. FWIW. Elongating the process is definitely not helping, and is making it harder for whoever comes next, with each day that passes. Folk just aren't buying their bs right now.
That posting of yours re Any Answers - that does imply the current Cabinet won't have much credibility. Too much the mini-me Johnsons, too often on TV having to try and make up bollocks to justify some policy and losing their credibility the moment the U-turn happens. Too identified with him. Mr Johnson has effectively gone some way to destroying their credibility - even, in the Roman sense, their 'dignitas', their worth and status.
Yet I can't see the Party voting for anyone that isn't a Boris Johnson redux.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
I'm on Mordaunt at good odds. Can easily see her emerging as the choice.
I can't. The fact remains until and unless we see some polling which definitively suggests any potential candidate doing much better than the incumbent, I suspect we may not even see a Confidence Vote and if we do Boris Johnson will win it.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
I can. I've never heard an argument against her that isn't a bigger argument for her. She's a real headache for someone like Starmer.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
I'm on Mordaunt at good odds. Can easily see her emerging as the choice.
I can't. The fact remains until and unless we see some polling which definitively suggests any potential candidate doing much better than the incumbent, I suspect we may not even see a Confidence Vote and if we do Boris Johnson will win it.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Ah no, I mean IF they dump BJ. Which, like you, I doubt very much. My betting is heavily skewed to him surviving to the GE.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
Yes they would be swamped with carers at public expense, unlike the plebs.
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
That is surely the great unanswered quandary of politics right now. FWIW. Elongating the process is definitely not helping, and is making it harder for whoever comes next, with each day that passes. Folk just aren't buying their bs right now.
That posting of yours re Any Answers - that does imply the current Cabinet won't have much credibility. Too much the mini-me Johnsons, too often on TV having to try and make up bollocks to justify some policy and losing their credibility the moment the U-turn happens. Too identified with him. Mr Johnson has effectively gone some way to destroying their credibility - even, in the Roman sense, their 'dignitas', their worth and status.
Yet I can't see the Party voting for anyone that isn't a Boris Johnson redux.
Not Mordaunt, or (even though I don't want him to win) Wallace. Not close enough to him.
Also I think Javid is OK. The main tarnish is on Truss, Raab, Gove, and Sunak.
I'd also add that the legacy of the Iraq invasion has been an absolute disaster for the West. Many of the more neutral counties, like India and China, see fairly close parallels between the Iraq and Ukraine invasions, and are therefore not particularly disposed to take sides with the West against Russia. These means that there is a fair likelihood that sanctions against Russia will be too leaky to succeed in weakening her sufficiently.
Yes the Iraq episode only looks worse as time goes by.
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
The cost of drinking in a pub has consistently accelerated compared with general inflation for many years. This is a key factor in many people simply not going to the pub anymore and also the pub being a much smaller factor in the lives of the under 30s where the tradition and experience of going to the pub has fallen away to a large extent.
I stopped going to pubs around the time they started having BIG SCREEN SPORT - often quite loudly as well as distractingly. I'm sure there was some economic trade-off being made at the time, but I know quite a few other people who drifted away from them around the same time.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
Again people, why would you put ANY money on these by-elections until there is less than a day to go?
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
The cost of drinking in a pub has consistently accelerated compared with general inflation for many years. This is a key factor in many people simply not going to the pub anymore and also the pub being a much smaller factor in the lives of the under 30s where the tradition and experience of going to the pub has fallen away to a large extent.
I stopped going to pubs around the time they started having BIG SCREEN SPORT - often quite loudly as well as distractingly. I'm sure there was some economic trade-off being made at the time, but I know quite a few other people who drifted away from them around the same time.
You don't have to do that. I go to a few pubs a week and just don't go to ones showing large screen sport.
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
To me the answer is Boris. Boris, and the vipers around him, have made the party unpopular.
He didn’t March into the party’s in Downing Street and shut them down to match the rules he told us to follow - then spent months covering up and lying about it knowing it would be damaging if voters found out. Without that, that perfectly avoidable thing, the polls and PM ratings would be very different today Stodge, I am sure about it.
Two thoughts - he must have known the day after the first party this would come back to bite him in the behind sooner or later. Both he and Starmer (to an extent) seem unwilling to comprehend whatever they think they will get away with they can't and won't. Johnson may try to twist the argument a little and I do accept he doesn't so much work at home as live in the office but that's not the point.
The second is maybe people are just tired and bored of him and nothing he does or says makes any difference any more. Compared with some Prime Ministers, Johnson is always in sight, always there - during Covid he was on our tv screens almost every night. We've often said on here leaders have a shelf life - that's because we see them so much we grow tired of them and want someone else. In Johnson's case, expedience has brought that forward.
He's "done" Brexit, there's no real appetite for his re-hashed half-baked Thatcherism and his comedic schtick, which would be ideal for optimistic times, just doesn't fit with the current zeitgeist.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
I kinda wonder if yesterdays booing was Boris's "They're laughing at you, not with you." Wogan moment. Everyone has finally been given permission to openly mock & dismiss him and his apologists.
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
Yeah, but not embarrassed to be German given their government's pitiful response to Russia invading Ukraine.
Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
The cost of drinking in a pub has consistently accelerated compared with general inflation for many years. This is a key factor in many people simply not going to the pub anymore and also the pub being a much smaller factor in the lives of the under 30s where the tradition and experience of going to the pub has fallen away to a large extent.
I stopped going to pubs around the time they started having BIG SCREEN SPORT - often quite loudly as well as distractingly. I'm sure there was some economic trade-off being made at the time, but I know quite a few other people who drifted away from them around the same time.
You don't have to do that. I go to a few pubs a week and just don't go to ones showing large screen sport.
At the time (I'm thinking mid-90s? maybe mixing it up with the lad-culture times though) every pub around me was the same (at least the non-stabby/junky ones). And I didn't fancy an hours walk just to have a pint. And now it's been so long that the habit is gone.
Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.
On that subject, the sheer chutzpah of Putin saying he hoped to reopen the Azov and Black Sea ports of Ukraine for food exports to help starving people in Africa was absolutely breathtaking.
It's his fecking fault they're shut, and all he has to do to solve the problem is withdraw his troops!
Honestly, I don't know why the President of Senegal didn't do unto him as Will Smith did unto Wotzisface. Somebody needs to to get the message into his thick head.
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
Yeah, but not embarrassed to be German given their government's pitiful response to Russia invading Ukraine.
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
Yeah, but not embarrassed to be German given their government's pitiful response to Russia invading Ukraine.
Mr Gormley - judging by the accompanying photo - is also dyeing his hair. I sense several deep insecurities at work
They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.
I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.
Every day’s a school day.
Ah interesting. Nonce is used in cryptography as the name for a random string that is used as a one-off so that both ends of the communication can see that they encrypt the nonce to the same value, using the encryption keys, which they don't have to exchange. Always a bit weird to put "nonce" into an http authentication header when you know the secondary British meaning for the word.
Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.
On that subject, the sheer chutzpah of Putin saying he hoped to reopen the Azov and Black Sea ports of Ukraine for food exports to help starving people in Africa was absolutely breathtaking.
It's his fecking fault they're shut, and all he has to do to solve the problem is withdraw his troops!
Honestly, I don't know why the President of Senegal didn't do unto him as Will Smith did unto Wotzisface. Somebody needs to to get the message into his thick head.
He has perfected the brazenness of pretending ot be sad at all this violence and discord caused by people resisting his will, as if it is a regrettable unexpected outcome.
Fortunately outside the Stop the War coalition I don't think it persuades many, even if others argue a cold pragmatism about it.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
Again people, why would you put ANY money on these by-elections until there is less than a day to go?
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
A wee bit of wishful thinking from deepest Devon I suspect.
The timetable makes it marginal any vote will be held before the by-election and do you seriously think Boris will walk unless he loses and does anyone seriously think he will lose the vote?
Let's say he wins 200-159 - does he walk? I very much doubt it.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
Again people, why would you put ANY money on these by-elections until there is less than a day to go?
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
A wee bit of wishful thinking from deepest Devon I suspect.
The timetable makes it marginal any vote will be held before the by-election and do you seriously think Boris will walk unless he loses and does anyone seriously think he will lose the vote?
Let's say he wins 200-159 - does he walk? I very much doubt it.
I don't think he walks, but equally is he actually safe if it is that close? His critics, having crossed the rubicon to vote him down, are not going to suddenly think 'Oh well, we best suck it up and back him uncritically now'.
Rules can be changed, and having seen how close it was those closer to him might then feel more comfortable about being a martyr later.
The Queens Platinum Jubilee 4 day celebrations have been an enormous demonstration of how just well respected the Queen is in her fortitude and service to the nation and at this critical moment in time for the conservative party contrasts her service to the shame Boris has brought to the office of Prime Minister
His mps can change this by uniting in a vonc next week to show they recognise the chasm in decency, honesty and integrity between the Queen and her Prime Minister and show him his P45
To each and every conservative mp who fails to recognise the irreparable damage he has caused I say
The Queens Platinum Jubilee 4 day celebrations have been an enormous demonstration of how just well respected the Queen is in her fortitude and service to the nation and at this critical moment in time for the conservative party contrasts her service to the shame Boris has brought to the office of Prime Minister
His mps can change this by uniting in a vonc next week to show they recognise the chasm in decency, honesty and integrity between the Queen and her Prime Minister and show him his P45
To each and every conservative mp who fails to recognise the irreparable damage he has caused I say
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Yes, it's time the Remoaner elite faced facts - they're living through a Boris Brexit Bonanza and their lack of gratitude is as demeaning as it is irrational. Is there some re-education facility we can send the voters to?
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Yes, it's time the Remoaner elite faced facts - they're living through a Boris Brexit Bonanza and their lack of gratitude is as demeaning as it is irrational. Is there some re-education facility we can send the voters to?
I believe the Stade France is available at weekends. However it is a “bit of a walk” from the nearest Metro station
It’s not that much cheaper in Newcastle these days
Re cost of a pint (14p in a London pub in 1971/2 when I started) it seems to me that the thing which has grown enormously is the gap between the cost of drinking the stuff at home - which is trivial TBH - and at a pub, which is not trivial at all.
Minimum wage, fewer customers per pub.
In the Goode Olde Days, the price of beer for drinking at home was massively inflated.
When supermarkets started on their cost cutting (which has been going on for decades), cutting the price of beer for home consumption was a massive “leader” for them.
At the same time, the cost of beer in pubs has gone up, a lot, due to wages, the endless efforts of the big companies to drain more money from the industry, rents etc
Not impressed by test matches that only last 3 days. No-one else seems to care about it.
Not much wrong with the pitch, England have a good bowling attack for English conditions and absolutely mince batting. It tends to lead to short matches
Okay so the new leader doesn't get booed on Day One but how long before he/she does start getting some negative public reaction? The question is whether the problem is Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party and I'm not sure we have the answer to that currently.
To me the answer is Boris. Boris, and the vipers around him, have made the party unpopular.
He didn’t March into the party’s in Downing Street and shut them down to match the rules he told us to follow - then spent months covering up and lying about it knowing it would be damaging if voters found out. Without that, that perfectly avoidable thing, the polls and PM ratings would be very different today Stodge, I am sure about it.
Two thoughts - he must have known the day after the first party this would come back to bite him in the behind sooner or later. Both he and Starmer (to an extent) seem unwilling to comprehend whatever they think they will get away with they can't and won't. Johnson may try to twist the argument a little and I do accept he doesn't so much work at home as live in the office but that's not the point.
The second is maybe people are just tired and bored of him and nothing he does or says makes any difference any more. Compared with some Prime Ministers, Johnson is always in sight, always there - during Covid he was on our tv screens almost every night. We've often said on here leaders have a shelf life - that's because we see them so much we grow tired of them and want someone else. In Johnson's case, expedience has brought that forward.
He's "done" Brexit, there's no real appetite for his re-hashed half-baked Thatcherism and his comedic schtick, which would be ideal for optimistic times, just doesn't fit with the current zeitgeist.
You putting it down to the public already thinking the grass is greener on the other side? 🤔
What I think this is, errors that were avoidable if avoided would have avoided removal. Boris was in a pretty strong position but threw it away himself, quite simply by taking the piss. You can’t take the piss out of voters to that degree and come back from it. Grass greener on the other side? As counterfactual Tony Blair says no to Bush, has nothing to do with the diabolical occupation of Iraq turned into - he could have remained popular enough to fight and win a fourth election 2009 - so I think same with Boris, without this mistake he could have remained popular enough to win the next election.
The French election is very low key Stodge, isn’t this set of elections nearly as important as the presidential power, or is the check and counterbalance here a bit underestimated?
I’m queuing in the car for passport control at Calais. Current estimated waiting time 1.30 hours.
Crossing the sea border is something that’s got progressively and steadily worse over the last 25 years. I used to turn up, on relatively peak days, about 40 minutes before the crossing and roll on. Now arriving 2 hours beforehand doesn’t guarantee you get on board.
It’s been the perfect series of ratchets:
- beefed up security post 9/11 - Beefed up passport controls (and security) to stop illegal migration - Longer passport control post-Brexit with the whole checking for overstay and stamping malarkey - relative decline in passengers going on Ryanair etc and a return to using car ferry and tunnel - Fewer staff, year on year
The only remotely smooth process is to book Eurotunnel on their flexiplus fare, but that costs a lot.
I came back through ET on Wednesday on a standard fare; I arrived early and was bumped up onto an earlier crossing. All perfectly smooth, at least until I reached the post-Brexit mess of the M20 and had to crawl along at well below motorway speeds for miles and miles.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Is it not the case, Libdem, snp, green, others in the polling these days, the fact it’s not so 2 party in polling and voting these days the first passed post system disguises, that the modern equivalent these days, of just sneaking into double digits, is just as potent as something bigger in the past?
Sorry to be boring, but comparing polls these days with what was acceptable in the 80’s might be a bit of a naff basis for your argument?
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
His ratings indicate plenty of Leavers have had it with him too.
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
God Leon, give your liver a rest.
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
His ratings indicate plenty of Leavers have had it with him too.
Brainwashed by the Remainer media and institutions?
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
God Leon, give your liver a rest.
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
You clearly missed the Times article which said people that drink “two bottles of wine a day” are healthier, happier and longer lived than teetotallers and modest drinkers. I took it as a cue to up my consumption by about a quarter of a bottle a day, so as to hit the target
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
I don't think that is true. Johnson is seen now less as an evil enemy - which is how many opponents saw Thatcher, Major and Blair - and more as a figure of utter derision and scorn. And that is an impression that has spread beyond those who just naturally oppose him and on to many who would normally support a Conservative government. Yes it may be wishful thinking on my part but I simply see no way back when he has become so derided.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
Again people, why would you put ANY money on these by-elections until there is less than a day to go?
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
But isn't the skill of betting to try to second guess "events"? If you believe that Johnson will be gone /on his way out by June 23 then the value bet is on a Tory hold in T&H. If you wait till all the unknowns are known then you are unlikely to ever make a killing. .
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
God Leon, give your liver a rest.
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
You clearly missed the Times article which said people that drink “two bottles of wine a day” are healthier, happier and longer lived than teetotallers and modest drinkers. I took it as a cue to up my consumption by about a quarter of a bottle a day, so as to hit the target
Smug bastard. But I'm not going to drink something I can't stand, just to add a few extra months of dementia-fuelled dual incontinence....
I’m queuing in the car for passport control at Calais. Current estimated waiting time 1.30 hours.
Crossing the sea border is something that’s got progressively and steadily worse over the last 25 years. I used to turn up, on relatively peak days, about 40 minutes before the crossing and roll on. Now arriving 2 hours beforehand doesn’t guarantee you get on board.
It’s been the perfect series of ratchets:
- beefed up security post 9/11 - Beefed up passport controls (and security) to stop illegal migration - Longer passport control post-Brexit with the whole checking for overstay and stamping malarkey - relative decline in passengers going on Ryanair etc and a return to using car ferry and tunnel - Fewer staff, year on year
The only remotely smooth process is to book Eurotunnel on their flexiplus fare, but that costs a lot.
I came back through ET on Wednesday on a standard fare; I arrived early and was bumped up onto an earlier crossing. All perfectly smooth, at least until I reached the post-Brexit mess of the M20 and had to crawl along at well below motorway speeds for miles and miles.
It’s still smooth on midweek days, though the ferries are increasingly bad even then. 80 mins through passports in the end today (and we were last on the ferry), nearly 2 hours going out from Dover last Saturday with the added crunch of Liverpool supporters.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
I don't think that is true. Johnson is seen now less as an evil enemy - which is how many opponents saw Thatcher, Major and Blair - and more as a figure of utter derision and scorn. And that is an impression that has spread beyond those who just naturally oppose him and on to many who would normally support a Conservative government. Yes it may be wishful thinking on my part but I simply see no way back when he has become so derided.
Nah
Look at the people who are most performatively angered by his partying and most hysterically eager to see him go. They are nearly all Remoaners
And maybe they should have their slaughtered lamb. Maybe they will cease being so fruitlessly angry once he has gone
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
God Leon, give your liver a rest.
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
You clearly missed the Times article which said people that drink “two bottles of wine a day” are healthier, happier and longer lived than teetotallers and modest drinkers. I took it as a cue to up my consumption by about a quarter of a bottle a day, so as to hit the target
I didn't make it all the way though the article before passing out in a drunken haze.
Or perhaps people have been misinterpreting it as they are viewing it through beer goggles.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
I don't think that is true. Johnson is seen now less as an evil enemy - which is how many opponents saw Thatcher, Major and Blair - and more as a figure of utter derision and scorn. And that is an impression that has spread beyond those who just naturally oppose him and on to many who would normally support a Conservative government. Yes it may be wishful thinking on my part but I simply see no way back when he has become so derided.
What are you making of the big new oil field and the impact of that on politics, plot, in the new series of Borgen, Richard?
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
.
I have no issue with people changing nationalities if they do not like what their present nation is doing, including over Brexit, but it does seem a bit much to suggest not being part of the EU is a betrayal of parents and grandparents as if everyone had been fighting explicitly for the intent of creating a supranational institution.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Absolutely so
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
God Leon, give your liver a rest.
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
You clearly missed the Times article which said people that drink “two bottles of wine a day” are healthier, happier and longer lived than teetotallers and modest drinkers. I took it as a cue to up my consumption by about a quarter of a bottle a day, so as to hit the target
The Times?? LOL! I'm guessing it wasn't peer-reviewed?
Two thoughts - he must have known the day after the first party this would come back to bite him in the behind sooner or later. Both he and Starmer (to an extent) seem unwilling to comprehend whatever they think they will get away with they can't and won't. Johnson may try to twist the argument a little and I do accept he doesn't so much work at home as live in the office but that's not the point.
The second is maybe people are just tired and bored of him and nothing he does or says makes any difference any more. Compared with some Prime Ministers, Johnson is always in sight, always there - during Covid he was on our tv screens almost every night. We've often said on here leaders have a shelf life - that's because we see them so much we grow tired of them and want someone else. In Johnson's case, expedience has brought that forward.
He's "done" Brexit, there's no real appetite for his re-hashed half-baked Thatcherism and his comedic schtick, which would be ideal for optimistic times, just doesn't fit with the current zeitgeist.
You putting it down to the public already thinking the grass is greener on the other side? 🤔
What I think this is, errors that were avoidable if avoided would have avoided removal. Boris was in a pretty strong position but threw it away himself, quite simply by taking the piss. You can’t take the piss out of voters to that degree and come back from it. Grass greener on the other side? As counterfactual Tony Blair says no to Bush, has nothing to do with the diabolical occupation of Iraq turned into - he could have remained popular enough to fight and win a fourth election 2009 - so I think same with Boris, without this mistake he could have remained popular enough to win the next election.
The French election is very low key Stodge, isn’t this set of elections nearly as important as the presidential power, or is the check and counterbalance here a bit underestimated?
I'm not sure that's what I'm suggesting at all.
Had 9/11 not happened and there been no invasion of Iraq, yes, I agree 2005 would likely have been a third Labour landslide but Blair was always going to retire in 2007. Had he done so with his reputation largely undiminished, he's remain a significant political figure to this day.
Whether in that instance Brown could have eked out a win over Cameron I'm uncertain as the global financial crash was still likely (might have been delayed slightly).
Even if the Left-Green alliance (NUPES) outpolls Macron's party tomorrow the second round should see Ensemble come home with something close to a majority a the centre and centre-right voters shy away from a Melenchon Government. It's strange no one here is talking about the collapse of the French centre-right.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Is it not the case, Libdem, snp, green, others in the polling these days, the fact it’s not so 2 party in polling and voting these days the first passed post system disguises, that the modern equivalent these days, of just sneaking into double digits, is just as potent as something bigger in the past?
Sorry to be boring, but comparing polls these days with what was acceptable in the 80’s might be a bit of a naff basis for your argument?
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
It's many years sincce hings were like this. The hatred for Johnson (and anyone prepared to speak up for him) is visceral. Time to put your house on the Tories losing both by elections. The Tories and Johnson are f*cked!
Again people, why would you put ANY money on these by-elections until there is less than a day to go?
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
But isn't the skill of betting to try to second guess "events"? If you believe that Johnson will be gone /on his way out by June 23 then the value bet is on a Tory hold in T&H. If you wait till all the unknowns are known then you are unlikely to ever make a killing. .
Happy with a modest win rather than a "killing".
I'll make the big money on Prime Minister Penny Mordaunt... 😉
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
I don't think that is true. Johnson is seen now less as an evil enemy - which is how many opponents saw Thatcher, Major and Blair - and more as a figure of utter derision and scorn. And that is an impression that has spread beyond those who just naturally oppose him and on to many who would normally support a Conservative government. Yes it may be wishful thinking on my part but I simply see no way back when he has become so derided.
What are you making of the big new oil field and the impact of that on politics, plot, in the new series of Borgen, Richard?
Not watched Borgen I'm afraid. I don't get much time for TV at all and when I do it tends to be boxsets.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
The problem for the Union is the current coalition still enjoys around 50% support. Merz's hope must be for the Greens to look like the leading party at the next election which might mean Lindner switches to the Union. The problem is FDP support is falling and the Green-SPD option leads the CDU-CSU-FDP option (43-36 with Kantar).
The Greens have had a "good" war compared to Scholz and the SPD and it may well be the Greens will be the leading party in the next German Government.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
I don't think that is true. Johnson is seen now less as an evil enemy - which is how many opponents saw Thatcher, Major and Blair - and more as a figure of utter derision and scorn. And that is an impression that has spread beyond those who just naturally oppose him and on to many who would normally support a Conservative government. Yes it may be wishful thinking on my part but I simply see no way back when he has become so derided.
Nah
Look at the people who are most performatively angered by his partying and most hysterically eager to see him go. They are nearly all Remoaners
And maybe they should have their slaughtered lamb. Maybe they will cease being so fruitlessly angry once he has gone
I don't think that is anywhere near true. A lot of those who voted Leave on here are vocal critics of Johnson. Some long term like me and others more recent. Within my circle of leave voting friends there is no one willing to defend Johnson these days.
Yes those who have always hated him because of Brexit will revel in his downfall but there are huge numbers of Leave supporters who will also be glad to see the back of him. A dislike of hypocrisy and dishonesty crosses all these political divides.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
As we saw in Australia, it may not be the main opposition which kills the Conservatives next time but the leeching of votes to minor parties (LDs, Greens, Independents).
There's also the truth many people will vote against the Conservatives next time and it will be a question of where and how that anti-Conservative vote is maximised.
Open ridicule, booing and laughter for Andrew Griffith on Any Answers. This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Yes, though pedantically you'll probably find that Any Answers is on after Any Questions, rather than before.
Indeed. The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
His ratings indicate plenty of Leavers have had it with him too.
Brainwashed by the Remainer media and institutions?
It may seem the Gray Report finished him, only didn’t work as a Big Bang, it needed time for reflection. I think though, the end of the police and gray investigations brought end of Boris hiding from the reckoning. The Boris press could argue the investigation end brought little new, however the MPs had a long time to make their minds up from when the truth was known months ago, watching for signs of it blowing over and electoral recovery and presented with it getting worse, the gray report merely a signal it was make mind up in vonc time.
Comments
I think the 'humiliation' reference is related to the rapid lifting of sanctions once the shooting stops as they are a visible manifestion of the west's ability to coerce Russia.
If not, we have no comparison. Polls from during the campaign itself do not compare to polling that could influence whether or not Tory MPs may believe it is a good idea to actually have a challenge or not.
David Milliband for example probably had more name recognition than his brother at time of fantasy poll, but in longer term he may have proved too associated with the foreign policy and EU deals of the Brown years, and probably unapologetic about that, and Ed won due to opposition to Iraq debacle David didn’t/couldn’t distance himself from, Ed winning with support from unions for change of economic direction from New Labour David would not have done sowing seeds of split party.
So although HY poll is true as a snapshot, how it likely played out, David too much of the wrong sort of baggage and wrong views for the era, more divisive split party for years could be, arguably the stronger candidate in the Lab leadership election would have gone on to a worse general election result.
When Loyalty no harm meant;
A Zealous High-Church man I was,1
And so I gain'd Preferment.2
Unto my Flock I daily Preach'd,
Kings are by God appointed,
And Damn'd are those who dare resist,3
Or touch the Lord's Anointed.4
And this is law,5 I will maintain
Unto my Dying Day, Sir.
That whatsoever King may reign,
I will be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
Minister on how integrity has been chipped away as they grapple with conscience about whether they can vote against PM
‘I don’t know whether I can. There’s others on payroll who feel same, they are just more reconciled to lying about it’ https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1533069188469751808/photo/1
Johnson won the 2019 leadership election the night the polling showed he alone of the possible successors to Theresa May being able to see off Farage and win a majority.
If you're a backbencher with a majority vulnerable to a 5-8% swing you might be looking to see if there is another potential leader who will help you keep your seat but if there isn't what can you do?
It's all being lumped on the PM. Even when it isn't his fault.
When a Prime Minister is roundly booed by the crowd on a day of national Thanksgiving, you know it's all over.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1533063949884825602
FWIW. Elongating the process is definitely not helping, and is making it harder for whoever comes next, with each day that passes.
Folk just aren't buying their constant, increasingly ludicrous bs anymore.
He didn’t March into the party’s in Downing Street and shut them down to match the rules he told us to follow - then spent months covering up and lying about it knowing it would be damaging if voters found out. Without that, that perfectly avoidable thing, the polls and PM ratings would be very different today Stodge, I am sure about it.
Yet I can't see the Party voting for anyone that isn't a Boris Johnson redux.
Also I think Javid is OK. The main tarnish is on Truss, Raab, Gove, and Sunak.
We could easily be into the election of a new PM by polling day. And the way events are moving, that likelihood gets greater as every day passes.
If Boris is gone, the LibDems fox will have been shot in T&H. (I expect the Tories to still lose Wakefield, pretty much regardless of circumstances - but not enough to back it regardless of events.)
The second is maybe people are just tired and bored of him and nothing he does or says makes any difference any more. Compared with some Prime Ministers, Johnson is always in sight, always there - during Covid he was on our tv screens almost every night. We've often said on here leaders have a shelf life - that's because we see them so much we grow tired of them and want someone else. In Johnson's case, expedience has brought that forward.
He's "done" Brexit, there's no real appetite for his re-hashed half-baked Thatcherism and his comedic schtick, which would be ideal for optimistic times, just doesn't fit with the current zeitgeist.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/jun/04/antony-gormley-to-become-german-citizen-due-to-tragedy-of-brexit
“I’m embarrassed about Brexit: it’s a practical disaster, a betrayal of my parents’ and grandparents’ sacrifice to make a Europe that was not going to be divided again. It’s a tragedy,”
Yeah, but not embarrassed to be German given their government's pitiful response to Russia invading Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1533073469570789377
It's his fecking fault they're shut, and all he has to do to solve the problem is withdraw his troops!
Honestly, I don't know why the President of Senegal didn't do unto him as Will Smith did unto Wotzisface. Somebody needs to to get the message into his thick head.
Brexit was, in my view, a mistake that I contributed to, but there is a difference between 'divided to the point of war' and 'not all being part of the EU'.
People also cannot seem to make up their minds if it was a betrayal of the older generation (even though the majority of those voted for it) or a betrayal of the younger generation. It could be they think it was both, but mentioning one only seems to suggest this person does not think that.
Fortunately outside the Stop the War coalition I don't think it persuades many, even if others argue a cold pragmatism about it.
The timetable makes it marginal any vote will be held before the by-election and do you seriously think Boris will walk unless he loses and does anyone seriously think he will lose the vote?
Let's say he wins 200-159 - does he walk? I very much doubt it.
And yet, if that were true, we’d be seeing polling as happened to Major’s government in the mid 90s, with Blair’s Labour 20 points ahead
We’re not seeing that. What we see is a standard mid term poll lead for an opposition facing a tired government
I hate to drop the B-bomb word so liberally, but I suggest a lot of this anger at Boris and the Tories is actually sublimated Remoaner angst and loathing of Leaver Boris, but this time channeled through a new rage at his partying frivolity
I’m not defending him, btw, it IS time for him to eff off
Rules can be changed, and having seen how close it was those closer to him might then feel more comfortable about being a martyr later.
His mps can change this by uniting in a vonc next week to show they recognise the chasm in decency, honesty and integrity between the Queen and her Prime Minister and show him his P45
To each and every conservative mp who fails to recognise the irreparable damage he has caused I say
'Shame on you'
He could have said “I don’t like Brexit, I disagree with it, I believe it is an error, but the British people were free to choose as they did. However I will now take up German citizenship, as it my right, so I can retain my European citizenship and my Freedom of Movement”
But he didn’t say that. He’s gone way way further and is, in effect, saying Brexit was a sin or a crime - or both. Morally wrong. Should not have been allowed. Which is absurd. It was a choice to exit a quasi Federal union, as was our right under Article 50 of the fucking EU Constitution which they immorally forced on us, so fuck em. And him. I’m going to push over one off his stupid statues when and if I ever get home
*knocks back more Tsinandali wine in his Georgian park*
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
When supermarkets started on their cost cutting (which has been going on for decades), cutting the price of beer for home consumption was a massive “leader” for them.
At the same time, the cost of beer in pubs has gone up, a lot, due to wages, the endless efforts of the big companies to drain more money from the industry, rents etc
What I think this is, errors that were avoidable if avoided would have avoided removal. Boris was in a pretty strong position but threw it away himself, quite simply by taking the piss. You can’t take the piss out of voters to that degree and come back from it. Grass greener on the other side? As counterfactual Tony Blair says no to Bush, has nothing to do with the diabolical occupation of Iraq turned into - he could have remained popular enough to fight and win a fourth election 2009 - so I think same with Boris, without this mistake he could have remained popular enough to win the next election.
The French election is very low key Stodge, isn’t this set of elections nearly as important as the presidential power, or is the check and counterbalance here a bit underestimated?
Sorry to be boring, but comparing polls these days with what was acceptable in the 80’s might be a bit of a naff basis for your argument?
I hardly drink, and i'm having to take liver tests atm.
Look at the people who are most performatively angered by his partying and most hysterically eager to see him go. They are nearly all Remoaners
And maybe they should have their slaughtered lamb. Maybe they will cease being so fruitlessly angry once he has gone
I doubt it - look at @Scott_xP - but we can hope
Or perhaps people have been misinterpreting it as they are viewing it through beer goggles.
Had 9/11 not happened and there been no invasion of Iraq, yes, I agree 2005 would likely have been a third Labour landslide but Blair was always going to retire in 2007. Had he done so with his reputation largely undiminished, he's remain a significant political figure to this day.
Whether in that instance Brown could have eked out a win over Cameron I'm uncertain as the global financial crash was still likely (might have been delayed slightly).
Even if the Left-Green alliance (NUPES) outpolls Macron's party tomorrow the second round should see Ensemble come home with something close to a majority a the centre and centre-right voters shy away from a Melenchon Government. It's strange no one here is talking about the collapse of the French centre-right.
I'll make the big money on Prime Minister Penny Mordaunt... 😉
The Greens have had a "good" war compared to Scholz and the SPD and it may well be the Greens will be the leading party in the next German Government.
Yes those who have always hated him because of Brexit will revel in his downfall but there are huge numbers of Leave supporters who will also be glad to see the back of him. A dislike of hypocrisy and dishonesty crosses all these political divides.
There's also the truth many people will vote against the Conservatives next time and it will be a question of where and how that anti-Conservative vote is maximised.