Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Can we not forgive HYUFD and forget one bizarre youthful incident?
To have transgressed once is to have commuted heresy. Once.
In the spirit of the Humanism of Thomas Moore, the only possible action is purification via involuntary cremation. For the good of the soul.
They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.
I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.
They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.
I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
She will likely live until 2025 if she Iives as long as her husband and 2027 if she lives as long as her mother ie past the likely next general election date of 2024. So Johnson may not be PM or even Tory leader by then anyway, it might be PM Starmer with a new Tory Leader of the Opposition
You have absolutely no idea how long she will live
We all hope she'll send herself a telegram, like Fats Waller did a letter.
I agree. Should be a good party again, although I don't envy those who have to plan for her death prior to the events as must have been the case for the Jubilee.
HYUFD now predicting how long the Queen will live is bizarre.
That is the least of his bizareness. Personally, I think we will have an Oak jubilee.
The amusing thing is, potentially the next Jubilee would be Diamond (75 years) in 2027, but we already had Diamond (60 years) in 2012.
Its quite plausible we could have a 75 year Jubilee, though (and I find it morbid to discuss) possibly less plausible than it seemed 12 months ago.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Can we not forgive HYUFD and forget one bizarre youthful incident?
He also voted REMAIN, despite claiming to be a LEAVER.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
PM Priti would be relatively benign. She might want to transform the country into something similar to that depicted in Jack London's "Iron Heel" but she so's staggeringly incompetent she wouldn't be able to realise any of her authoritarian fantasies.
She also, last time I looked, was almost as unpopular among conservative grassroots as Boris. Hunt would win a Patel-Hunt runoff, and I expect others such as Mordaunt, Harper, probably even Rishi would.
They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.
I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Can we not forgive HYUFD and forget one bizarre youthful incident?
He also voted REMAIN, despite claiming to be a LEAVER.
Having done so is his having grace. Anyway, he'll be a Remainer when party policy changes again!
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Not at a general election and only because there were no Tory candidates left to vote for on that town council ballot paper.
You voted Labour at the 1997 and 2001 general elections
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Can we not forgive HYUFD and forget one bizarre youthful incident?
He also voted REMAIN, despite claiming to be a LEAVER.
They should at least get a Jimmy Savile impersonator to announce this.
I learned recently that ‘nonce’ is an acronym. It comes from Wakefield Prison. For their own safety, child sex offenders aren’t allowed mix with the general prison population, so their cells were marked ‘Not on normal courtyard exercise’.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Not at a general election and only because there were no Tory candidates left to vote for on that town council ballot paper.
You voted Labour at the 1997 and 2001 general elections
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Not at a general election and only because there were no Tory candidates left to vote for on that town council ballot paper.
You voted Labour at the 1997 and 2001 general elections
Yeah, he actually deserves a vote because he's shown that he can think about using it.
Fortunately, the "vote for a donkey with a red/blue rosette" tendencies cancel each other out, leaving the rest of us to make the decisions.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
I think she has moved into Windsor Castle full time now. A sign of her frailty will be whether she still travels to Sandringham and Balmoral.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.
If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
One reason Thatcher hesitated was the expressions of support from local parties coming into Downing Street.
The MPs were the ones who removed her. She was still quite popular with the wider party.
Johnson cannot count on that, I think.
Telegraph reported yesterday he has lost the grass root constituencies
It's more significant if Boris has lost The Telegraph. Partly for the ongoing brouhaha, but also for BoJo's value post-Premiership. If he becomes less popular as he hangs on, that's going to cost him.
I think the big bucks might be in Reality TV for him. Unusual for ex PMs, I know, but he is unusual.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
I think she has moved into Windsor Castle full time now. A sign of her frailty will be whether she still travels to Sandringham and Balmoral.
She'd be daft to. Moving around the country at her age makes zero sense. Even if she'd do it in more comfort than anyone else.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.
If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
One reason Thatcher hesitated was the expressions of support from local parties coming into Downing Street.
The MPs were the ones who removed her. She was still quite popular with the wider party.
Johnson cannot count on that, I think.
Telegraph reported yesterday he has lost the grass root constituencies
It's more significant if Boris has lost The Telegraph. Partly for the ongoing brouhaha, but also for BoJo's value post-Premiership. If he becomes less popular as he hangs on, that's going to cost him.
I think the big bucks might be in Reality TV for him. Unusual for ex PMs, I know, but he is unusual.
With that muscle and reputation he's a shoo-in for Love Island.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
I think she has moved into Windsor Castle full time now. A sign of her frailty will be whether she still travels to Sandringham and Balmoral.
She'd be daft to. Moving around the country at her age makes zero sense. Even if she'd do it in more comfort than anyone else.
Well, she wasn't up to travelling to St Paul's yesterday or Epsom today (and I'm sure it's the travelling that is the problem not the events themselves) but maybe she could be able to handle once a year to Sandringham and back for Christmas. I doubt that Balmoral would be advisable.
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
I think she has moved into Windsor Castle full time now. A sign of her frailty will be whether she still travels to Sandringham and Balmoral.
She was up in Balmoral for a few nights last week wasn't she?
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
If BoZo gets booed at the Queen's Jubilee, imagine the reception he would get at her funeral.
Tory MPs must do the right thing now...
While I agree his mps must act, hopefully on monday, I do not agree he would be booed at HMQ funeral as it would be a very sombre occasion and would not be well received by the public
There are times in life when something trumps politics, this would be one of them
For once I agree, even I wouldn't boo Johnson at HM's funeral. Incidentally, I do worry that HM may not have long to go. Think she may have spent all her last energies on being around for the Jubilee.
I am quite concerned just how ill she is, and certainly as we age mobility becomes a problem (as I can vouch for) but she is 96 and is looking increasingly frail and I am 100% certain she would not have wanted to miss the amount of celebrations she has if she was not suffering debilitating health issues
There's usually a couple of years lag between having to go into a home, and final curtain though
Sadly, there usually isn't actually; its usually a couple of months (median average)- and Her Majesty wouldn't go into a home, people do when they can't get the support they need at home anymore and she'd get all the support you'd find in a home brought into her home instead.
Or anyone of her several homes.
I think she has moved into Windsor Castle full time now. A sign of her frailty will be whether she still travels to Sandringham and Balmoral.
She'd be daft to. Moving around the country at her age makes zero sense. Even if she'd do it in more comfort than anyone else.
Well, she wasn't up to travelling to St Paul's yesterday or Epsom today (and I'm sure it's the travelling that is the problem not the events themselves) but maybe she could be able to handle once a year to Sandringham and back for Christmas. I doubt that Balmoral would be advisable.
It's not the travel, it's the having to be on duty at the destination that's the problem.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls also show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
He should resign as he is unfit for the office he holds and has lost vast swathes of the country
Your argument over alternatives is irrelevant, as he could suffer a serious accident or health issue or worse and would have to be replaced
You obsess over polling, but there are replacements for Boris and no matter there comes a time when one has to do the right thing and that time is now for conservative mps to vote him out of office
Has Boris had a serious accident or health issue? No.
I don't care what Boris has done I only care about maximising the Tory voteshare as a Tory member and unless another Tory leader is shown in polls to have a clear lead over Starmer Labour, which none are, then Boris stays as far as I am concerned. Especially given most alternatives, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Sunak, Gove, Truss etc poll even worse with the voters than Boris anyway now.
If Boris went I would back Ben Wallace or Javid as the only alternatives who poll a bit better but even they as I said do no better than Starmer
How accurate is hypothetical polling of potential alternative leaders? I doubt most people have enough sense of what Hunt or Wallace or Truss is like for such polling to be particularly reliable. (The polling will have been more accurate for better known figures like Heseltine and Johnson, I’d’ve guessed.)
It is accurate enough and was accurate enough when Major won in 1992 and Johnson won in 2019.
So the anti Johnsonites can whinge as much as they want but only Tory Mzps and Tory members like me get to choose our PM until the next general election in 2024 thanks to the Tory landslide of 2019 and Johnson will not be removed unless clear polling evidence of an alternative leader leading Starmer, which there isn't.
Hunt is a former Foreign Secretary, Truss is Foreign Secretary, Patel is Home Secretary the idea the public don't know who the top ranked Tories are beyond Johnson is a pathetic excuse
I didn’t mention Patel. I said Hunt, Truss and Wallace. YouGov has “fame” figures, i.e. the proportion who have heard of someone. Johnson is on 99%, as is May. Blair is on 98%, Corbyn on 97%. The highest Conservative politician who hasn’t been PM is Hancock on 97%, followed by Patel on 94%.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
A couple of interesting France24 items wrt the Stade de France catastrophe.
1 - France24 factcheck debunking a couple of fake videos of "local ethnic minorities causing trouble". Including a couple I have seen in our media - eg the "France does not belong to the French" vid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSNILCZc48k
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
Brady - and I think your figures are not far out but a rebellion of that size would result in his resignation fairly quickly even if the1922 have to change their rules
It should do. But consider the Thatcher precedent. In her case, it took the Cabinet and a spouse with a hinterland to tell her that the game was up. Which she then had the class to accept.
If Boris wins with a bare majority, or even a decisive one like 187-172, who is there to tell him that it's time to go? Who will be listened to?
One reason Thatcher hesitated was the expressions of support from local parties coming into Downing Street.
The MPs were the ones who removed her. She was still quite popular with the wider party.
Johnson cannot count on that, I think.
Telegraph reported yesterday he has lost the grass root constituencies
It's more significant if Boris has lost The Telegraph. Partly for the ongoing brouhaha, but also for BoJo's value post-Premiership. If he becomes less popular as he hangs on, that's going to cost him.
I think the big bucks might be in Reality TV for him. Unusual for ex PMs, I know, but he is unusual.
Betting question - is there a market for the the number of votes against Johnson, if Grady gets the letters?
My guess is that there will be double the number letters as votes against, as a floor. That is, if Grady gets 54 letters, it will be 110 votes against. Minimum.
At least that. What HY and Dorries don't seem to get is that the momentum is building visibly day by day now. This wasn't "they need to act, they keep making excuses why they won't". This is people submitting letters and speaking in openly very critical terms each and every day.
And that was before Parliament broke up for the Lets Boo Boris festival. Tory MPs - even lickspittle worms like Duguid - have gone home. And if he turns up to see his people in Fraserburgh today they aren't going to be saying "good old Boris". When fruitcakes and loonies like Desmond Swayne or Peter Bone go and meet people, they are going to have to be profoundly selective to only hear the "good old Boris" messages they insist are all people are saying.
What they miss is that the more we are assured that everyone in Wellingborough is cheering the boss on, the more we know they are not. Its like their response to the cost of living crisis - deny, patronise, sneer - you can only tell people black is white for so long before they realise it isn't, and then start thinking you are delusional in still saying it is. That is the choice for Tory MPs.
What you don't get is the momentum for change is driven by non Tories like you when only Tories get to decide who the PM is until the next general election. So any opinions of non Tories are irrelevant and the polling is clear most Tory voters and members want Johnson to stay.
Fortunately you are about to find 54+ conservative mps are about to bring your hero crashing down to earth and they have the conservative party's reputation and future in their hands
Each and every one of them are the real conservatives who will ultimately see your hero out of office
They have my full support and are the path to me re-joining the party and campaigning to win the next GE
You can always join RUK or whoever they are as you do seem suited to one another
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris in my time, I support whoever the Tory leader is. I have never voted Labour at a general election unlike you either.
However there is no guarantee removing Johnson gets a centrist PM, MPs might put Hunt or Sunak and Patel as the final 2 to members with members voting for Patel, so we get PM Priti and a vote on restoration of the death penalty and an ultra hard asylum policy. Who knows?
You voted Plaid
Not at a general election and only because there were no Tory candidates left to vote for on that town council ballot paper.
You voted Labour at the 1997 and 2001 general elections
You voted to elect the opposition. It doesn't matter that you had run out of Tory candidates - stop voting. Don't give succour to opposition parties who will then act against your own.
Here's the thing. You voting PC once doesn't matter. You doing it whilst endlessly berating both PBers and Tory voters as "not true Tories" is straight up hypocrisy. It is possible to admit to having made a mistake you know. Try it on for size - "I was wrong".
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
"both Major and Heseltine"
Nope, Heseltine only and Thatcher in a Mail poll of marginals before the first ballot
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
"both Major and Heseltine"
Nope, Heseltine only and Thatcher in a Mail poll of marginals before the first ballot
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
God knows what the french are thinking. I assume this isn't just Macron, but the french foreign policy establishment's view. Maybe some kind of whacky ideal about France being some kind of balance between Russia and USA?
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
Why would Johnson step aside? He is the leader who won the Conservatives their biggest general election win since Thatcher in 2019 nobody else.
There is also no clear alternative, polls show every other potential alternative Tory leader polls worse with the public than Johnson apart from Wallace and Javid but even they poll no better than Starmer.
This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't, nor is it 2019 either when Boris led Corbyn in polls but May didn't
Why? 1. Morality. He could wake up one morning having been visited by the holy ghost who had shown him that lying and cheating and criminality are Bad. Repent and the kingdom of Heaven will be yours and all that. 2. Because he has been handed the pearl-handled revolver as happened to Thatcher and IDS and May before him. Not everyone in the party is a pliable lickspittle like your good self - they have a string track record of removing failures. 3. Because he loses the no confidence vote, or wins it so narrowly that the "its all over, lets move on" please from intellectual heavyweights like Simon Clarke fall flat on their face.
Its true that there is no obvious successor now. Nor was there in 1990 (please linky a poll before Howe resigned showing that Major would win the election). That doesn't mean that good people carry on supporting bad people, bad policies and misbehaviour. I know your personal support remains for the lying crook, but you aren't most Tory voters - how many of them voted Plaid Cymru...?
Polling in November 1990 showed both Major and Heseltine leading Kinnock Labour and that was BEFORE the first ballot against Thatcher.
There is no such polling now showing any alternative Tory leader leading Starmer Labour
Would appreciate you posting links. This is an interesting point in political history, and having studied this only a few years after doing A-level politics I do not remember that at all.
A November 1990 Harris poll had, for example, the Conservatives leading Kinnock Labour by 10% under Heseltine, 7% under Major and 4% under Hurd. That at a time they trailed under Thatcher.
Before the first ballot too a Mail poll had the Thatcher led Tories trailing Kinnock Labour in key marginal seats that would all be saved if Heseltine became Tory leader.
There is no such polling showing Hunt, Sunak, Patel, Truss, Raab, Wallace etc leading Starmer Labour now
Laughable. You're taking polls done *during* the leadership contest of the declared candidates. Whereas upthread you said: "This is not 1990 when Major and Heseltine led Kinnock in polls but Thatcher didn't". But Thatcher wasn't in these polls. As she had withdrawn. So once again you are talking utter tosh.
Nope the Heseltine v Thatcher marginals poll was taken before the first ballot when Thatcher was still PM and in the race
"both Major and Heseltine"
Nope, Heseltine only and Thatcher in a Mail poll of marginals before the first ballot
Great! Thanks for confirming that your post earlier was wrong.
Nope, I posted that post earlier too, so my point stands 100% correct.
There was polling evidence before the first ballot an alternative leader to Thatcher ie Heseltine, would poll better v Labour than she was in key marginal seats
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It is vital that Russia is humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine, international military adventurism is shown to be doomed to failure because of international co-operation on total condemnation, backed by sanctions and followed up by rigorous prosecutions for war crimes.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
He is in the party now, there is no way he would beat Truss, Raab or Patel to be the candidate of the right now, his only hope would be to beat Hunt to be the centrist candidate in the final 2
Johnson suffered from quite severe Covid in 2020. Might a resignation at some point of time on grounds of ill-health, perhaps an unsuccessful attempt to continue despite Long Covid, be seen sometime later this Summer?
It would be great and humiliating if Macron was overheard saying it is vital that Johnson is not humiliated.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
He is in the party now, there is no way he would beat Truss, Raab or Patel to be the candidate of the right now, his only hope would be to beat Hunt to be the centrist candidate in the final 2
Ah, I forgot this was the world of HYUFD where what someone believes is not relevant, merely where they position themselves to win votes.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
God knows what the french are thinking. I assume this isn't just Macron, but the french foreign policy establishment's view. Maybe some kind of whacky ideal about France being some kind of balance between Russia and USA?
They do have a special relationship that's important to both countries.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
If Russia isn't humiliated domestically, it will do the same again.
Russia needs the fundamental reset to its aspiration of international adventurism that the US suffered over Vietnam.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
He is in the party now, there is no way he would beat Truss, Raab or Patel to be the candidate of the right now, his only hope would be to beat Hunt to be the centrist candidate in the final 2
Ah, I forgot this was the world of HYUFD where what someone believes is not relevant, merely where they position themselves to win votes.
What they believe has to fit into the context of the Tory party, as it now is Sunak is economically on the left of the party and less hard Brexit than the party right either
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
God knows what the french are thinking. I assume this isn't just Macron, but the french foreign policy establishment's view. Maybe some kind of whacky ideal about France being some kind of balance between Russia and USA?
They do have a special relationship that's important to both countries.
Does that allude to the Normandie Niemen squadron?
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
If Russia isn't humiliated domestically, it will do the same again.
Russia needs the fundamental reset to its aspiration of international adventurism that the US suffered over Vietnam.
Russia can only be humiliated domestically over a similar timespan though. Which was why I wondered whether Putin will just declare victory soonish.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
He is in the party now, there is no way he would beat Truss, Raab or Patel to be the candidate of the right now, his only hope would be to beat Hunt to be the centrist candidate in the final 2
Who on earth do you think is going to be voting to replace Boris with Raab or Patel? Truss I can see being in the final handful, maybe - but the others? Not a cat in hell's chance.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
God knows what the french are thinking. I assume this isn't just Macron, but the french foreign policy establishment's view. Maybe some kind of whacky ideal about France being some kind of balance between Russia and USA?
They do have a special relationship that's important to both countries.
Does that allude to the Normandie Niemen squadron?
Yeah, EdC 2/30 at Mont-de-Marsan. The whole squadron got the Order of the Red Banner in the GPW.
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Interesting discussion. I live in Birmingham and surely for Birmingham residents the key question at issue is what is the difference in travelling time from where you live in Birmingham to each of the two railways stations, New Street and Curzon Street? For Birmingham residents, travelling between the two stations isn't relevant unless your best route into the city from your home is by train to New Street. According to Google maps, its 16 mins by taxi from where I live to New Street and 20 mins by taxi from where I live to Curzon Street. So a 4 minute difference.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
If Russia isn't humiliated domestically, it will do the same again.
Russia needs the fundamental reset to its aspiration of international adventurism that the US suffered over Vietnam.
I am not saying if it is good or bad, just my interpretation of it. It makes sense to me as a position to take, if it were backed up by serious steps to prevent Russia doing it again. Not what I would choose but endings to wars are rarely good.
Most likely options seem to be:
1. Russian establishment gets rid of Putin. 2. Something like Macron is describing. 3. Continued war until Putin dies, with knock on famines in poorer countries. 4. Trump elected and stops supporting Ukraine.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
What does that MEAN? It is the second time he has said that and I am none the wiser. Isn't any military defeat somewhat humiliating? If he means we shouldn't rub it in, fine. But there's the danger that as usual it is assumed that only WE (AKA the west) have agency.
We can't control what is deemed to be humiliating in the eyes of Putin, the Russian people or the rest of the world.
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
Depends, there would be a candidate of the right as well as a centrist candidate in the final 2 as there usually is.
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Is Sunak still in the running?
With Hunt to be the centrist candidate of the party
If Sunak is centrist the party has moved even further than I had thought. I can see Sunak as someone the centrists would be happy to work with, but he is not a centrist.
He is in the party now, there is no way he would beat Truss, Raab or Patel to be the candidate of the right now, his only hope would be to beat Hunt to be the centrist candidate in the final 2
Who on earth do you think is going to be voting to replace Boris with Raab or Patel? Truss I can see being in the final handful, maybe - but the others? Not a cat in hell's chance.
Raab and Patel now lead Sunak on the latest Conhome Cabinet members favourability survey. Only 33% of Tory members voted for Hunt in 2019.
I think either Raab or Patel could beat Hunt or Sunak now in the Tory membership vote, even if Wallace, Mordaunt or Truss would probably beat all 4 of them
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Interesting discussion. I live in Birmingham and surely for Birmingham residents the key question at issue is what is the difference in travelling time from where you live in Birmingham to each of the two railways stations, New Street and Curzon Street? For Birmingham residents, travelling between the two stations isn't relevant unless your best route into the city from your home is by train to New Street. According to Google maps, its 16 mins by taxi from where I live to New Street and 20 mins by taxi from where I live to Curzon Street. So a 4 minute difference.
A four-minute difference is probably swallowed up by other conveniences: e.g. with the longer trains, do you need to walk further from the concourse at Curzon Street to reach your carriage than you do at New Street? Or which station you prefer for facilities - e.g. toilets, pub, shops, etc.
You can see why a quarter of young adults don't drink now! A session with a young William Hague would be £112 each before you get any crisps or peanuts in, let alone a meal.
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Interesting discussion. I live in Birmingham and surely for Birmingham residents the key question at issue is what is the difference in travelling time from where you live in Birmingham to each of the two railways stations, New Street and Curzon Street? For Birmingham residents, travelling between the two stations isn't relevant unless your best route into the city from your home is by train to New Street. According to Google maps, its 16 mins by taxi from where I live to New Street and 20 mins by taxi from where I live to Curzon Street. So a 4 minute difference.
A four-minute difference is probably swallowed up by other conveniences: e.g. with the longer trains, do you need to walk further from the concourse at Curzon Street to reach your carriage than you do at New Street? Or which station you prefer for facilities - e.g. toilets, pub, shops, etc.
Of course, that does assume there's one train in a platform at New Street, which given how crowded it is may be a brave assumption.
I used to love it back in the day when it was a real place with a properly edgy vibe. Then gentrification took over. The lambretta seats went, and in came all sorts of trendy eateries and shops selling fancy things at exorbitant prices.
Two of my young guests yesterday announced that they're leaving London next month for a provincial city. Now that they can predominantly work from home they no longer find London an attractive proposition. They'd rather be in a city where you can easily walk or cycle from one part to the other in a matter of minutes.
Which ‘provincial city?’
Brizzle
I was being coy in case they read this!!!!
Hmmm. They may find it a bit bigger than they expect, speaking as somebody who used to live there.
But it is a lovely city.
Good on you, Bristolian.
One of them grew up there and spent the first 20 years of their life in it so knows it very well. A return to their roots. I think it's fairly easy to get around in minutes on foot or bike as long as you don't mind the steep climb up to Clifton etc.
The regeneration around the harbour is superb. Brilliant food to be had as well these days.
Well, I was in Downend and Frenchay, so rather out on a limb and that may have coloured my views.
But as you say there is a great deal to enjoy there.
If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham. What it lacks in beauty it makes up in energy. It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2. For salaried jobs in many industries, it is pretty much at London wages. And the property prices.... very affordable, as in you can actually buy a nice house/flat in a nice area for the money that you earn in a professional job. You can have the 15 minute lifestyle if that is what you want. Makes me wonder about all the criticism of house prices. There is no problem at all in large parts of the country. It really is concentrated in the south east, and for many people, the best answer is simply to move. My own assessment of London before quitting it 10 years ago was that it is fine if you either have serious wealth or are building up a career in your twenties. But there is no point sticking around beyond that.
I lived in Birmingham in the 1980s. Let’s just say it’s improved somewhat since then. Not sure if it’s still the same now, but back then it felt like a collection of smaller towns that had come together - Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville, Balsall Heath, etc - rather than a single entity that had grown outwards. All those places and many others had very different personalities. And that’s before you moved into the Black Country, which will never, ever, be Brum.
Let's explore the context of your comment in the context of darkage's earlier: "If I was young I'd be off to Birmingham..... It is going to be 45 minutes to London in a couple of years on HS2."
Well it's not going to be 45 minutes from any of Selly Oak, Mosley, Harborne, Handsworth, Aston, Bournville or Balsall Heath. All are, together with most of the rest of Birmingham and the Black Country, heavily integrated into the rail hub that is Birmingham New Street. There are some tweaks planned, but they're not going to alter the situation for most. So for rail travellers the choice will still be: - Either arrive at Birmingham New Street and allow at least 30 mins to get out of the station and make a stress filled dash across to Curzon Street to catch HS2. - Or just walk across the concourse to the neighbouring platform at New Street to get on a West Coast main line service that takes about 35 minutes longer to get there than HS2. Just a 5 minute difference.
If you're coming from Wolverhampton or Sandwell the choice is even simpler, you don't even need to get off the WCML service while it stops at New Street.
So in contrast to what are no doubt fantastical passenger number figures built into the HS2 business case, I just can't see HS2 being a draw to rail travellers from Birmingham and the Black Country to London. The vast majority will continue to use the WCML (or the Chiltern Line which is far cheaper than the WCML and will be even cheaper still than HS2.)
Curzon Street will be more convenient to business people travelling from London for the occasional meeting in Birmingham City Centre (although whether there are going to be many meetings going forward might be questioned given the with the widespread adoption of Zoom etc.) But that amounts to an added benefit to businesses and their employees based in London. Hardly levelling up is it?
HS2 is a consequence of over capacity on the WCML and Chiltern Lines. The WCML and Chiltern trains will be a bit slower and more local and HS2 will be the intercity used for fast centre to centre travel, ie business travellers. A lot of leading barristers in my own industry are already based in Birmingham, along with other businesses that do a lot of work in London. You can easily integrate 90 minutes on HS2 (return from London to Birmingham)- which is productive working time, in to your working day. That is what HS2 is going to deliver and it is going to give Birmingham a major competitive edge over all other cities outside of London.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Interesting discussion. I live in Birmingham and surely for Birmingham residents the key question at issue is what is the difference in travelling time from where you live in Birmingham to each of the two railways stations, New Street and Curzon Street? For Birmingham residents, travelling between the two stations isn't relevant unless your best route into the city from your home is by train to New Street. According to Google maps, its 16 mins by taxi from where I live to New Street and 20 mins by taxi from where I live to Curzon Street. So a 4 minute difference.
I think cost will be a factor too. It will depend on how much is charged for HS2 as against the semi-fast or remaining fast WCML services.
Incidentally following a little research, I find Avanti have ordered a series of Class 800 and 801 Azumas for the WCML. So they won't have tilt, however because of their acceleration they should still manage similar times to current trains.
The question is, how many will go through New Street? I would guess around 3-4 an hour. 2 from Wolverhampton and either one or two from Holyhead.
The big loser if it's 2ph from Holyhead would be Lichfield, which would be left without HSTs to London at all (one of HS2's stupidest mistakes was to put the Trent Valley junction at Handsacre rather than at Lichfield Trent Valley).
But every other station running to New Street would benefit hugely from capacity freed up at New Street. Every Pendolino removed from there (and there are around 14 per hour at the moment) frees up enough space for three other trains.
And anyone travelling to London wouldn't have to go to New Street, which would be a bonus for them too.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
I’m queuing in the car for passport control at Calais. Current estimated waiting time 1.30 hours.
Crossing the sea border is something that’s got progressively and steadily worse over the last 25 years. I used to turn up, on relatively peak days, about 40 minutes before the crossing and roll on. Now arriving 2 hours beforehand doesn’t guarantee you get on board.
It’s been the perfect series of ratchets:
- beefed up security post 9/11 - Beefed up passport controls (and security) to stop illegal migration - Longer passport control post-Brexit with the whole checking for overstay and stamping malarkey - relative decline in passengers going on Ryanair etc and a return to using car ferry and tunnel - Fewer staff, year on year
The only remotely smooth process is to book Eurotunnel on their flexiplus fare, but that costs a lot.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found.
Telegraph live blog
It doesn't make any sense though. Even after all this fighting at some point the diplomats will get involved, but anything that forces them to halt their invasion will be seen as humiliating to Russia. It isn't possible to not humiliate them in such a way, for anything other than achieving total victory.
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
I expect what Macron is aiming at is Putin humiliated internationally but not domestically.
I suspect that he means that *Russia* doesn’t view France as being responsible for the humiliation and getting contracts to build things in/for Russia.
Humiliation would *start*, probably, at Ukraine not losing any territory that they held pre 2022.
While the Queen will have to endure Ed Chamberlin and the ITV Racing coverage (unless she has Racing UK which won't be any better) I imagine a huge crowd has descended on the Downs for the small matter of the Derby.
Big field but there's not many with obvious chances. DESERT CROWN was impressive in the Dante but as yesterday showed, the best horse doesn't always win the race and for a horse with so little inexperience, the pre-race hurly-burly and a big field rough race may be too much.
STONE AGE and NATIONS PRIDE are viable alternatives - the former takes the well trodden route of the Leopardstown Derby Trial while the latter was impressive at Newmarket that was Listed class and this is the top table.
I quite like PIZ BADILE of the others and Mr Dettori will hopefully have a better run round than yesterday. I'm on each way at 11s this morning.
Now to what none of you have been waiting for - the Stodge Saturday Patent:
One of Johnson's many flaws is that he has surrounded himself with pygmies so as to avoid threats to his position. The worry has to be that one of them (Patel!) could replace him. Mordaunt has gone very quiet but she could impress in a leadership contest.
I can't see Patel getting into the top two in the Parliamentary party first round. Mordaunt is a lot more likely
I'm on Mordaunt at good odds. Can easily see her emerging as the choice.
Comments
In the spirit of the Humanism of Thomas Moore, the only possible action is purification via involuntary cremation. For the good of the soul.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2015/12/story-wordpress-s-nonces
When I was in prison nonces were called “bacons”
Obscure Cockney rhyming slang….
Perhaps England were on to summat trying to get the ball changed yesterday.
Its quite plausible we could have a 75 year Jubilee, though (and I find it morbid to discuss) possibly less plausible than it seemed 12 months ago.
You voted Labour at the 1997 and 2001 general elections
Fortunately, the "vote for a donkey with a red/blue rosette" tendencies cancel each other out, leaving the rest of us to make the decisions.
265/8
BBC:That fifth wicket partnership was 195. Either side of that, New Zealand have scored 191 for 16.
Moving around the country at her age makes zero sense. Even if she'd do it in more comfort than anyone else.
If you are earning well, ie 50-100k; then you can live pretty much anywhere you want in Birmingham in a large house. You can go for a nice suburb with outstanding schools, ie Solihull; or a hipster place like Moseley. You can even go for some kind of rural countryside life. All within about half an hour of Birmingham via public transport. In London, your options at this price level are all heavily compromised, its grim suburbia or some crime ridden city fringe with chicken shops and HMOs.
London has massive appeal, but for the non-rich what you see walking out of Euston or Marylebone is not the reality of living there, not by a long way. Why not just have everything you want, 45 minutes away? Whats the real difference between 45 minutes to Curzon Street and 15 minutes to Croydon?
Hunt is lower, but still pretty high on 85%.
Truss is only on 66%. Wallace is on a mere 37%.
Telegraph live blog
Hunt or Sunak would likely be the centrist candidate with Patel, Truss and Raab competing to be the candidate of the right.
Wallace and Mordaunt would likely attract votes from both wings but by the final 2 will end up in 1 camp or the other
Here's the thing. You voting PC once doesn't matter. You doing it whilst endlessly berating both PBers and Tory voters as "not true Tories" is straight up hypocrisy. It is possible to admit to having made a mistake you know. Try it on for size - "I was wrong".
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/richard-heller-how-i-helped-stir-mps-rebellion-ended-era-1867352
Plus, let's be real, even diplomatic solutions are not really merely diplomatic solutions. Say the solution is official autonomy for Donbas but Russia (officially) pulls back - unlikely, but for sake of argument - that would have been achieved by war.
So not humiliating Russia cannot be the goal, since sitting down with Ukraine would be humilating (Ukriane is not a real country after all). So I assume he is using code to mean 'Russia will need to get something out of this', which would be a more honest and direct point.
Liz Cheney
https://thehill.com/news/house/3511667-cheney-there-is-absolutely-a-cult-of-personality-around-donald-trump/
There was polling evidence before the first ballot an alternative leader to Thatcher ie Heseltine, would poll better v Labour than she was in key marginal seats
You appeasing piece of shit, Macron.
Russia needs the fundamental reset to its aspiration of international adventurism that the US suffered over Vietnam.
Which was why I wondered whether Putin will just declare victory soonish.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2022/jun/04/uk-beer-costs-soar-average-price-pint-tops-8-pounds-one-london-pub
Most likely options seem to be:
1. Russian establishment gets rid of Putin.
2. Something like Macron is describing.
3. Continued war until Putin dies, with knock on famines in poorer countries.
4. Trump elected and stops supporting Ukraine.
Obviously 1 is preferable but may not happen.
We can't control what is deemed to be humiliating in the eyes of Putin, the Russian people or the rest of the world.
I think either Raab or Patel could beat Hunt or Sunak now in the Tory membership vote, even if Wallace, Mordaunt or Truss would probably beat all 4 of them
Incidentally following a little research, I find Avanti have ordered a series of Class 800 and 801 Azumas for the WCML. So they won't have tilt, however because of their acceleration they should still manage similar times to current trains.
The question is, how many will go through New Street? I would guess around 3-4 an hour. 2 from Wolverhampton and either one or two from Holyhead.
The big loser if it's 2ph from Holyhead would be Lichfield, which would be left without HSTs to London at all (one of HS2's stupidest mistakes was to put the Trent Valley junction at Handsacre rather than at Lichfield Trent Valley).
But every other station running to New Street would benefit hugely from capacity freed up at New Street. Every Pendolino removed from there (and there are around 14 per hour at the moment) frees up enough space for three other trains.
And anyone travelling to London wouldn't have to go to New Street, which would be a bonus for them too.
I came, I saw, I collaborated.
Crossing the sea border is something that’s got progressively and steadily worse over the last 25 years. I used to turn up, on relatively peak days, about 40 minutes before the crossing and roll on. Now arriving 2 hours beforehand doesn’t guarantee you get on board.
It’s been the perfect series of ratchets:
- beefed up security post 9/11
- Beefed up passport controls (and security) to stop illegal migration
- Longer passport control post-Brexit with the whole checking for overstay and stamping malarkey
- relative decline in passengers going on Ryanair etc and a return to using car ferry and tunnel
- Fewer staff, year on year
The only remotely smooth process is to book Eurotunnel on their flexiplus fare, but that costs a lot.
This is on the Isle of Wight, too.
Humiliation would *start*, probably, at Ukraine not losing any territory that they held pre 2022.
My first trip to Lord's and I was astonished how pronounced it is.
Dorries! DORRIES! Where the Hell are you!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6pQBzckYG8w
While the Queen will have to endure Ed Chamberlin and the ITV Racing coverage (unless she has Racing UK which won't be any better) I imagine a huge crowd has descended on the Downs for the small matter of the Derby.
Big field but there's not many with obvious chances. DESERT CROWN was impressive in the Dante but as yesterday showed, the best horse doesn't always win the race and for a horse with so little inexperience, the pre-race hurly-burly and a big field rough race may be too much.
STONE AGE and NATIONS PRIDE are viable alternatives - the former takes the well trodden route of the Leopardstown Derby Trial while the latter was impressive at Newmarket that was Listed class and this is the top table.
I quite like PIZ BADILE of the others and Mr Dettori will hopefully have a better run round than yesterday. I'm on each way at 11s this morning.
Now to what none of you have been waiting for - the Stodge Saturday Patent:
6.45 Lingfield: ASHKY
8.35 Chepstow: ALKHATAAF
8.45 Lingfield: SMOKEY MALONE
(Nick Compton would have right to harbour homicidal thoughts over the truly disgusting way he was treated. It looks worse and worse with hindsight.)
The audience is ferociously hostile to the government. To a degree I've never heard before. It's growing, not fading away.