2022 is now betting favourite for Johnson’s exit – politicalbetting.com
2022 is now betting favourite for Johnson’s exit – politicalbetting.com
With the drip-feed of Conservative MP’s coming out against Johnson carrying on as party leader and PM, the BoJo exit date betting has taken a turn. 2022 is now favourite for his departure from Number 10.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
"Time to move on" is what you hear.
Not that this PM could exactly claim he was hard done by, if the Party chose to use him as long as he was useful - and then dumped him and moved on to the next. It has been Boris' modus operandi for long enough.
• Say they’ve sent letter: 18
• Say they’ve withdrawn letter: 1
• Called for PM to go but not confirmed letter: 15
• Won’t say if they have sent letter: 5
• Criticised PM: 32
Total potential letter-writers: 71
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RVHIyV3KuCdSw_3bAQ7Ml9UZy_gQv_IrRdQN5HNUQnQ/edit?usp=sharing
If you are convinced VOC is coming, laying Starmer for next PM should be considered.
I don't think Boris gets rewarded with another term if he's still in charge. Boris is thought of as well below average in the assessment of the UK public consciousness.
I’m getting worried.
I believe we need a Lab/LD government precisely to deliver the amelioration (not reversal) of Boris’s Brexit; to create a growth economy; and to better protect the very worst off.
Since autumn last year I have been confident that a Boris-led Tory party would lose in ‘24, and that any likely Boris replacement would also do so, if perhaps more narrowly.
But by likely, I assumed the candidates had to be Brexiters.
I can now absolutely see Jeremy Hunt scoring a ‘92 Major-style cling-on. Bloody hell!
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-red-bull-give-perez-new-two-year-deal-until-end-of-2024.26PEyZScMED9BMcREFIcYz.html
He's been driving very well this year. If he hadn't been ordered to swap with Verstappen in Spain (and could've kept the Dutchman behind him) he'd be second in the title race, one point off his team mate.
On-topic: I'll believe he's gone when he's gone. Many false starts with this.
Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.
There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.
Maybe the Tories will assist Sir Keir by replacing Johnson with someone even less electable.
Jacob Rees-Mogg anyone?
Even under Hunt there’s no way they have the necessary apostasy to refocus on growth, the union, and protecting the worse off.
‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’
On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’
https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120
Its looking more and more to me like a Blue Wall, opposition to Labour deep minority(265 to 270) or paper thin majority Hunt strategy coming.
White rugs or a beige carpet ?
Both a step up from Bozza's spilt red wine mind.
There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
James heale twitter
"Exclusive: Lord's faces embarrassment of 20,000 empty seats for Test match
England's match against New Zealand is specially dedicated to the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and marks the start of the Stokes-McCullum era"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/30/exclusive-lords-face-embarrassment-20000-empty-seats-test-match
I was thinking of going to this but I'm not paying around £150 plus travel/accommodation costs when most of the ground is empty.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/31/160-ticket-arrogant-mcc-touch-cricket-fans/
"£160 for a Lord's ticket? Arrogant MCC is out of touch with cricket fans
If MCC is going to be a business, then it is about time it learned how to be one properly, learning something about its customers and market"
(Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
Just to point out the desperation @hyufd will go to defend an error. Here is one cut and pasted from another day that sent several of us mad. It is typical of his jet powered goalposts:
HYUFD: In 1997, crime was falling thanks to Howard
When shown a link that says that was wrong he says a completely different thing: Crime fell in 1995 and 1996 when Howard was Home Secretary on those stats, thanks for confirming
When it is pointed that wasn’t what he said originally he says: Yes and I was absolutely right. Crime was falling in the last 2 years of the Tory government before Labour took over in 1997
And again: Yes crime was falling when the Tories left office in 1997, in both the previous 2 years of 1996 and 1995 when Howard was Home Secretary.
This goes on for umpteen posts.
He is lying. He didn’t say ‘Crime was falling under Howard’ he said ‘Crime was falling in 1997 thanks to Howard’.
Now I don’t care if he is right. I had no idea, but this blatant lying would embarrass Boris. The daft thing is there are easy facing saving and magnanimous way out, without looking like a lying prat.Try this:
'Whoops I got the 1997 figure wrong but crime was falling in 1995 and 1996 under Howard and then increased when Labour came in in 1997.'
However hyufd can’t accept he ever makes an error, no matter how small or insignificant. He would rather people laugh at him than show he is human.
a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)
In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:
A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).
Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.
It's not clear that any candidate will make it past the MPs but two must.
'...There are enough sensible people in the Conservative Party to form a decent government.'
This is no doubt true, Faro, but they're all on the backbenches, no?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-30/sterling-risks-existential-crisis-with-em-parallels-bofa-says
Sterling has a whole set of problems that interest rate rises won't solve and may exacerbate.
The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.
By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.
In the end it will be a self preservation society that wins, but which?
Sell, sell, sell.
Seen in that context, caveat emptor provided facts / figures.
If I were a Tory MP, even a loyal one, I would seriously doubt the sincerity of his apologies and would think: "he hasn't really taken responsibility, has he?".
I think he's possibly a trading buy, and I wouldn't entirely rule out his winning.
(I am fully prepared to be proved wrong, so this is not a strong tip.)
Stubborn arguments on absurd points apart, he provides considerable value to the site.
It’s interesting to note the poor performance of the pound this year. Obviously some of it is the “retreat to the dollar”, but that has also afflicted other currencies.
The pound has been hit additionally because investors aren’t buying the government’s economic strategy.
Needless to say this adds to inflation outlook, and perhaps explain why some analysts believe inflation will be more persistent in the UK than in peer economies.
I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.
It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.
It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.
The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.
Fascism.
One of those with no spine.
But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’
Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd
I don't think he is a liar. He's certainly never lied to me.
He gives the Party Line alright, but he gives it straight, which makes him useful, if nothing else, to those wishing to bet successfully on politics.
Incidentally, he's also polite, but then manners are overrated in my opinion, so wtf.
So I can't help feeling that the timing of this recess will prove to have been disastrous for No10. Sending MPs back to the country to talk to real people and broadcasting a 4 day weekend of guff about the country. Would have been far better to keep them corralled in Westminster where the bubble tendency of hypnotic repetition could have been deployed.
Witness his bizarre use of “EUSSR” when he was up against it during the last leadership bid.
Hunt's best chance is that he is in the two presented to the membership and then AN Other self-destructs, as per May. Possible if it is a relative unknown.
As an aside, it strikes me that it shows how desperate things are for the Tories that probably the best candidate for PM is a man who was widely derided/hated as Health Secretary in the Coalition.
His entire response to partygate has felt like he really just wants to scream 'lockdown was for the plebs, not us!'
I can’t quite work out whether this an age or borderline personality disorder misfits, or an age of unseemly misogyny, or both.
The only real fact I know about Carrie is that was dumped from her Tory PR job for expense discrepancies, and then walked straight into some non-job sinecure from the Goldsmith dynasty.
It demonstrates, at the very least, something in his character absent from most of the cabinet.
As Conservative numbers reduce with expulsions/by-elections so the 54 letters needed for a leadership challenge gets less.
I think the reason for posting is to engage.
Call me a Habermasian dreamer, if you like.
HYUFD doesn’t post; he sprays.
Recall that Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world before WW1. It could happen to us if we keep making bad choices.
https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1531333186621513730?s=21&t=2ZKj8dNd65O8cyaCmxpTqg
Contra the brief discussion earlier, I don’t think the UK is immune. I would also note that while household saving levels remain good, this for upper deciles only.
This is an extremely bifurcated situation, where the wealthier are keeping the show (but also inflation) going via increased spending during a supply shock - whole poorer people just go to the wall in ways not seen since the mid 80s.
Time for Boris to move on to wife number four?
Whoever is in No.10 in a couple of years' time.
The Q is are any if these prone to 'reactivation' by media
The only real danger to Starmer-bright human and articulate-is Rishi but Johnson's screwed him before he got out of the blocks.
They would need to lose a further 6 MPs for it to be 53.
I think the jury’s out on that.
I don’t mean to unduly pick on the guy, I just think kjh makes some entirely reasonable points upthread.
He’s a rigid Conservative, monarchist, and Unionist. He believes the state has the right to exercise power, and violent power, to maintain that status
LOTS of people - almost everyone? - believe some form of this, on the Left and the Right
eg anyone who believes in punishing crimes with force: locking people up, taking away children, perhaps the death penalty. Also anyone who believes we were right to bomb Berlin in 1941 or Baghdad in Whenever believes this. Anyone who believes in the British Army believes this
He makes mistakes, so do we all. He can come across as extreme, so can you, and NPXMP is a self confessed communist - I don’t see you hounding him off the site (nor should you). @HYUFD sticks to his guns, that can be annoying, but many are like this: refusing to admit defeat in an internet argument is a feature not a bug of the internet
The glory of the garden that is PB is its diversity. Let every flower bloom as long as they aren’t violently abusive or threatening
Also, @HYUFD is often highly perceptive about polls, politics, electoral outcomes, he tells it like he sees it. If he thinks something is bad for the Tories, he will say so, and he often gets it right. That is rather valuable on a site dedicated to political BETTING
But I do begrudgingly admire his inexhaustible reservoir of sheer bloody-minded stubbornness in a strange kind of way.
'His supporters argue that Johnson’s great strength is that he is seen as an election winner. My response is that his victories over the discredited LAB figures of Livingstone and Corbyn are really no big deal.'
Not sure why. It could be that schools are closed so till staff are home on baby-sitting duty, or, less likely, that maskless customers are spreading Covid.
Some gaps on shelves. Bananas are yellow again (green last week).
x