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2022 is now betting favourite for Johnson’s exit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 5 in General
image2022 is now betting favourite for Johnson’s exit – politicalbetting.com

With the drip-feed of Conservative MP’s coming out against Johnson carrying on as party leader and PM, the BoJo exit date betting has taken a turn. 2022 is now favourite for his departure from Number 10.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    First
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,334
    There is a certain irony in the members who want Boris to cease to be PM going and canvassing hard to keep the by-elections from being opposition gains, when their loss would likely be the final nail.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    Recount: 18 confirmed letters.
    • Say they’ve sent letter: 18
    • Say they’ve withdrawn letter: 1
    • Called for PM to go but not confirmed letter: 15
    • Won’t say if they have sent letter: 5
    • Criticised PM: 32
    Total potential letter-writers: 71
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RVHIyV3KuCdSw_3bAQ7Ml9UZy_gQv_IrRdQN5HNUQnQ/edit?usp=sharing
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    Starmer aside, Hunt clear favourite 7.4 BF. Truss 10.5 , Tugendhat 11 for next PM.

    If you are convinced VOC is coming, laying Starmer for next PM should be considered.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,288
    Yeah next election Boris faces the steady but unspectacular duo of Starmer and Davey. They both strike me as precisely the sort of 6/10 bang average opposition leaders that will render the vote completely about the government and if he's still in post, Boris.
    I don't think Boris gets rewarded with another term if he's still in charge. Boris is thought of as well below average in the assessment of the UK public consciousness.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515

    The activists know he's just not marketable any longer.

    "Time to move on" is what you hear.

    Not that this PM could exactly claim he was hard done by, if the Party chose to use him as long as he was useful - and then dumped him and moved on to the next. It has been Boris' modus operandi for long enough.

    Yep. "Move on" isn't quite the killer phrase that they thought it was. Have New Party MPs themselves "moved on" from repeating it in every interview? Because even the dumbest of them can't fail to have noticed that people aren't obeying.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    FPT

    I’m getting worried.

    I believe we need a Lab/LD government precisely to deliver the amelioration (not reversal) of Boris’s Brexit; to create a growth economy; and to better protect the very worst off.

    Since autumn last year I have been confident that a Boris-led Tory party would lose in ‘24, and that any likely Boris replacement would also do so, if perhaps more narrowly.

    But by likely, I assumed the candidates had to be Brexiters.

    I can now absolutely see Jeremy Hunt scoring a ‘92 Major-style cling-on. Bloody hell!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,598
    FPT :smile: F1: new 2 year deal for Perez:
    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-red-bull-give-perez-new-two-year-deal-until-end-of-2024.26PEyZScMED9BMcREFIcYz.html

    He's been driving very well this year. If he hadn't been ordered to swap with Verstappen in Spain (and could've kept the Dutchman behind him) he'd be second in the title race, one point off his team mate.

    On-topic: I'll believe he's gone when he's gone. Many false starts with this.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,759

    The activists know he's just not marketable any longer.

    "Time to move on" is what you hear.

    Not that this PM could exactly claim he was hard done by, if the Party chose to use him as long as he was useful - and then dumped him and moved on to the next. It has been Boris' modus operandi for long enough.

    Yep. "Move on" isn't quite the killer phrase that they thought it was. Have New Party MPs themselves "moved on" from repeating it in every interview? Because even the dumbest of them can't fail to have noticed that people aren't obeying.
    I thought that. I'd very much like Boris Johnson to "move on", just not in the way he thinks.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    Highly ironic, of course, but probably true.

    Maybe the Tories will assist Sir Keir by replacing Johnson with someone even less electable.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg anyone?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,759

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    I very much hope Tory MPs and members realise this.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    Scott_xP said:

    Recount: 18 confirmed letters.
    • Say they’ve sent letter: 18
    • Say they’ve withdrawn letter: 1
    • Called for PM to go but not confirmed letter: 15
    • Won’t say if they have sent letter: 5
    • Criticised PM: 32
    Total potential letter-writers: 71
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RVHIyV3KuCdSw_3bAQ7Ml9UZy_gQv_IrRdQN5HNUQnQ/edit?usp=sharing

    I didn't realise that Bridgen had submitted his again. Wonder if it's the same letter.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,512
    @DavidL You might want to have a look at SG expenditure plans over the next few years. Justice doesn't come out too well...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    I very much hope Tory MPs and members realise this.
    Sad to see you would go back Tory.

    Even under Hunt there’s no way they have the necessary apostasy to refocus on growth, the union, and protecting the worse off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053
    edited May 31
    Stocky said:

    Starmer aside, Hunt clear favourite 7.4 BF. Truss 10.5 , Tugendhat 11 for next PM.

    If you are convinced VOC is coming, laying Starmer for next PM should be considered.

    From your reply about Starmer on previous thread (sorry went out briefly), no i dont think he would but was postulating the what if that had come up. The betting movement you mentioned suggests something perhaps due to drop? A resignation?
    Its looking more and more to me like a Blue Wall, opposition to Labour deep minority(265 to 270) or paper thin majority Hunt strategy coming.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,288
    Hunt vs Starmer would be interesting*

    White rugs or a beige carpet ?

    Both a step up from Bozza's spilt red wine mind.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    Stocky said:

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
    Yup, that makes sense.

    There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159
    Scott_xP said:

    Recount: 18 confirmed letters.
    • Say they’ve sent letter: 18
    • Say they’ve withdrawn letter: 1
    • Called for PM to go but not confirmed letter: 15
    • Won’t say if they have sent letter: 5
    • Criticised PM: 32
    Total potential letter-writers: 71
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RVHIyV3KuCdSw_3bAQ7Ml9UZy_gQv_IrRdQN5HNUQnQ/edit?usp=sharing

    In 2018, 48 letters were needed to trigger a confidence vote on May's leadership. Only 27 MPs had gone public when the threshold was hit. In 2022 with 54 letters now required, the equivalent figure would be 30 letters. By our count, 24 have gone public.

    James heale twitter
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    All sounds a bit rats in a sack at this point.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    edited May 31

    Stocky said:

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
    Yup, that makes sense.

    There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
    I'm trying to get Evens on him losing a VOC matched but no luck yet. Got 1.96 earlier.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 262
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Recount: 18 confirmed letters.
    • Say they’ve sent letter: 18
    • Say they’ve withdrawn letter: 1
    • Called for PM to go but not confirmed letter: 15
    • Won’t say if they have sent letter: 5
    • Criticised PM: 32
    Total potential letter-writers: 71
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RVHIyV3KuCdSw_3bAQ7Ml9UZy_gQv_IrRdQN5HNUQnQ/edit?usp=sharing

    In 2018, 48 letters were needed to trigger a confidence vote on May's leadership. Only 27 MPs had gone public when the threshold was hit. In 2022 with 54 letters now required, the equivalent figure would be 30 letters. By our count, 24 have gone public.

    James heale twitter
    I think given the reputation of BJ as vindictive there will be a lesser proportion going public. What I'd like to see is a spread market on how many no votes there are. RIP Spreadfair.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
    Yup, that makes sense.

    There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
    I'm trying to get Evens on him losing a VOC matched but no luck yet. Got 1.96 earlier.
    Personally I'd take 4/5 now but you hardly need my advice.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,089
    edited May 31
    O/T

    "Exclusive: Lord's faces embarrassment of 20,000 empty seats for Test match
    England's match against New Zealand is specially dedicated to the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and marks the start of the Stokes-McCullum era"
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/30/exclusive-lords-face-embarrassment-20000-empty-seats-test-match

    I was thinking of going to this but I'm not paying around £150 plus travel/accommodation costs when most of the ground is empty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/31/160-ticket-arrogant-mcc-touch-cricket-fans/
    "£160 for a Lord's ticket? Arrogant MCC is out of touch with cricket fans
    If MCC is going to be a business, then it is about time it learned how to be one properly, learning something about its customers and market"
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    I very much hope Tory MPs and members realise this.
    Sad to see you would go back Tory.

    Even under Hunt there’s no way they have the necessary apostasy to refocus on growth, the union, and protecting the worse off.
    It depends on what happens. It's not just about the PM, it's whom they appoint. If the likes of Patel and Dorries aren't consigned to the Oort cloud, there's not much point. But there are enough sensible people in the Conservative Party to form a decent government.

    I wouldn't recommend rushing back, I think it takes time to win back trust and repudiate the past. Remember that they haven't even started yet. I think Hunt has the best chance of achieving that, but not JUST by getting himself elected party leader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,291
    Leon said:

    AN APPEAL TO PRACTICAL PB-ERS

    I am out here in Tbilisi with an expensive piece of big luggage which is close to collapsing. Simply because I travel so much. Zips are fraying. Wheels are loosening

    Now a steel rod has sprung from the casing and making it almost unusable. See here




    That’s nasty. The metal is also strong and rigid. It won’t just snap off. I’ve tried. What can I do? I’m not sure I can find high quality luggage in Tbilisi to replace it

    If I could just get 1-2 more months of use out of this suitcase, I can replace it when I get back to london. Or should I give upon on this bag and scour the Caucasus for a replacement?

    What happened to the 27 cheap Chinese knock-off multi-tools you bought the other week?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452
    edited May 31
    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,700
    So after this morning I have to get this off my chest (sorry to be so boring just read on by), but I was being told by @HYUFD this morning what I meant in one of my posts even though everyone else knew what I meant was something completely and utterly different and everyone else was right. I don’t even agree with what HYUFD thought I was saying. And yet he continued arguing the point over and over and over again. I mean it comes to something when you are mad enough to tell someone that you know their thoughts better than themselves. It’s not as if what I said was unclear (it was only 14 words) and something I have criticized him of many times (being in awe of his perceived betters).

    Just to point out the desperation @hyufd will go to defend an error. Here is one cut and pasted from another day that sent several of us mad. It is typical of his jet powered goalposts:

    HYUFD: In 1997, crime was falling thanks to Howard

    When shown a link that says that was wrong he says a completely different thing: Crime fell in 1995 and 1996 when Howard was Home Secretary on those stats, thanks for confirming

    When it is pointed that wasn’t what he said originally he says: Yes and I was absolutely right. Crime was falling in the last 2 years of the Tory government before Labour took over in 1997

    And again: Yes crime was falling when the Tories left office in 1997, in both the previous 2 years of 1996 and 1995 when Howard was Home Secretary.

    This goes on for umpteen posts.

    He is lying. He didn’t say ‘Crime was falling under Howard’ he said ‘Crime was falling in 1997 thanks to Howard’.

    Now I don’t care if he is right. I had no idea, but this blatant lying would embarrass Boris. The daft thing is there are easy facing saving and magnanimous way out, without looking like a lying prat.Try this:

    'Whoops I got the 1997 figure wrong but crime was falling in 1995 and 1996 under Howard and then increased when Labour came in in 1997.'

    However hyufd can’t accept he ever makes an error, no matter how small or insignificant. He would rather people laugh at him than show he is human.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,700
    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    edited May 31
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    Depends who he's up against IMO. I think he has a greater than 50% chance of beating Truss but a lower than 50% chance of beating Wallace (and I don't think Tugendhat should be that short).

    It's not clear that any candidate will make it past the MPs but two must.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    @Farooq

    '...There are enough sensible people in the Conservative Party to form a decent government.'

    This is no doubt true, Faro, but they're all on the backbenches, no?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    d) Cherry picking (like d but entirely deliberate)
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    Interesting Bloomberg article just appeared on my twitter feed

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-30/sterling-risks-existential-crisis-with-em-parallels-bofa-says

    Sterling has a whole set of problems that interest rate rises won't solve and may exacerbate.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515

    The activists know he's just not marketable any longer.

    "Time to move on" is what you hear.

    Not that this PM could exactly claim he was hard done by, if the Party chose to use him as long as he was useful - and then dumped him and moved on to the next. It has been Boris' modus operandi for long enough.

    Yep. "Move on" isn't quite the killer phrase that they thought it was. Have New Party MPs themselves "moved on" from repeating it in every interview? Because even the dumbest of them can't fail to have noticed that people aren't obeying.
    I thought that. I'd very much like Boris Johnson to "move on", just not in the way he thinks.
    And I call them the New Party because they are proto-fascist. As Mhairi Black said last week.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 262

    There is a certain irony in the members who want Boris to cease to be PM going and canvassing hard to keep the by-elections from being opposition gains, when their loss would likely be the final nail.

    Vote LibDem get a (proper) Tory in 2024. You'd be amazed how many times I have heard versions of that. Feels like T and H is utterly Tory and therefore will be safely LibDem if you know what I mean.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    kjh said:

    So after this morning I have to get this off my chest (sorry to be so boring just read on by), but I was being told by @HYUFD this morning what I meant in one of my posts even though everyone else knew what I meant was something completely and utterly different and everyone else was right. I don’t even agree with what HYUFD thought I was saying. And yet he continued arguing the point over and over and over again. I mean it comes to something when you are mad enough to tell someone that you know their thoughts better than themselves. It’s not as if what I said was unclear (it was only 14 words) and something I have criticized him of many times (being in awe of his perceived betters).

    Just to point out the desperation @hyufd will go to defend an error. Here is one cut and pasted from another day that sent several of us mad. It is typical of his jet powered goalposts:

    HYUFD: In 1997, crime was falling thanks to Howard

    When shown a link that says that was wrong he says a completely different thing: Crime fell in 1995 and 1996 when Howard was Home Secretary on those stats, thanks for confirming

    When it is pointed that wasn’t what he said originally he says: Yes and I was absolutely right. Crime was falling in the last 2 years of the Tory government before Labour took over in 1997

    And again: Yes crime was falling when the Tories left office in 1997, in both the previous 2 years of 1996 and 1995 when Howard was Home Secretary.

    This goes on for umpteen posts.

    He is lying. He didn’t say ‘Crime was falling under Howard’ he said ‘Crime was falling in 1997 thanks to Howard’.

    Now I don’t care if he is right. I had no idea, but this blatant lying would embarrass Boris. The daft thing is there are easy facing saving and magnanimous way out, without looking like a lying prat.Try this:

    'Whoops I got the 1997 figure wrong but crime was falling in 1995 and 1996 under Howard and then increased when Labour came in in 1997.'

    However hyufd can’t accept he ever makes an error, no matter how small or insignificant. He would rather people laugh at him than show he is human.

    He's a fascist. And I mean that seriously. Don't pander to him.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    All sounds a bit rats in a sack at this point.
    It always is round leadership challenge time. These broad coalitions that are Tory, Labour, SNP and LD are full of factions who hate each other.
    In the end it will be a self preservation society that wins, but which?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    He's the one I personally would most like to see leading the Conservative Party and therefore almost by definition the one least likely to do so.

    Sell, sell, sell.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,490
    I can't help but wonder whether Boris, if he goes, will be judged to be the author of his own downfall because of his two-facedness. As I understand it, at both stages of the Gray Report publication (interim and final) he has played the mea culpa, deeply apologetic, I take responsibility, humble persona act both to Parliament and the public. Then, out of public sight, with his own MPs (1922 meetings), he gave bravura knockabout speeches, made jokes about parties, took the piss out of Starmer, and generally made light of the whole sordid episode. I think this was a misjudgment, if true.

    If I were a Tory MP, even a loyal one, I would seriously doubt the sincerity of his apologies and would think: "he hasn't really taken responsibility, has he?".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,291
    edited May 31

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.
    TBF, he is rather open about why he posts on PB and said so very clearly in the past. It isn't to expand people's knowledge about some specialist subject or have interesting discussions with others, perhaps even change their mind about something, they see it as a testing ground to practice "winning" political arguments.

    Seen in that context, caveat emptor provided facts / figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    edited May 31
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    He'll stand.

    I think he's possibly a trading buy, and I wouldn't entirely rule out his winning.
    (I am fully prepared to be proved wrong, so this is not a strong tip.)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159
    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    Why has this MP asked not to be identified?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    While I wouldn't disagree with any of that, I think you have to accept him as he is and interact accordingly.
    Stubborn arguments on absurd points apart, he provides considerable value to the site.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    edited May 31
    eek said:

    Interesting Bloomberg article just appeared on my twitter feed

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-30/sterling-risks-existential-crisis-with-em-parallels-bofa-says

    Sterling has a whole set of problems that interest rate rises won't solve and may exacerbate.

    While the emerging market label is silly (in my opinion), the point about a politicised and obfuscatory Bank of England is very valid.

    It’s interesting to note the poor performance of the pound this year. Obviously some of it is the “retreat to the dollar”, but that has also afflicted other currencies.

    The pound has been hit additionally because investors aren’t buying the government’s economic strategy.

    Needless to say this adds to inflation outlook, and perhaps explain why some analysts believe inflation will be more persistent in the UK than in peer economies.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Mhairi Black talking about the HY tendency of the New Party:

    I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.

    It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.

    It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.


    The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.

    Fascism.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    Why has this MP asked not to be identified?
    Sounds like someone who is as safe as houses. Arable Lincolnshire, Essex, Rural Norfolk or Suffolk sort of MP
    One of those with no spine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,797

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.
    TBF, he is rather open about why he posts on PB and said so very clearly in the past. It isn't to expand people's knowledge about some specialist subject or have interesting discussions with others, perhaps even change their mind about something, they see it as a testing ground to practice "winning" political arguments.

    Seen in that context, caveat emptor provided facts / figures.
    THe flaw in his logic is that he invariably loses his arguments while annoying people. Which is not the way a politician or politician's assistant should work!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    @Farooq

    '...There are enough sensible people in the Conservative Party to form a decent government.'

    This is no doubt true, Faro, but they're all on the backbenches, no?

    Mostly, yes. But a new PM could see a significant changing of the guard.

    I guess what I'm saying is that someone like Hunt taking over necessary but way short of sufficient. I think most people can probably agree to that? I'm only saying that the attitude of "Hunt's in, whoopee, all the problems are gone!" is.. misguided.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,135



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,291
    edited May 31
    When you keep clashing with people, at some point you have to think perhaps it you not them.

    Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’

    Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.
    TBF, he is rather open about why he posts on PB and said so very clearly in the past. It isn't to expand people's knowledge about some specialist subject or have interesting discussions with others, perhaps even change their mind about something, they see it as a testing ground to practice "winning" political arguments.

    Seen in that context, caveat emptor provided facts / figures.
    It's simpler than that. He enjoys it.

    I don't think he is a liar. He's certainly never lied to me.

    He gives the Party Line alright, but he gives it straight, which makes him useful, if nothing else, to those wishing to bet successfully on politics.

    Incidentally, he's also polite, but then manners are overrated in my opinion, so wtf.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    On topic, we know that many of the active members of the New Party remain wedded to Johnsonite fascism. Their problem is that voters increasingly are not. Its fine for this MP to attack critical MPs "who wouldn't be an MP if not for the PM". True, and they would like to stay an MP.

    So I can't help feeling that the timing of this recess will prove to have been disastrous for No10. Sending MPs back to the country to talk to real people and broadcasting a 4 day weekend of guff about the country. Would have been far better to keep them corralled in Westminster where the bubble tendency of hypnotic repetition could have been deployed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    Farooq said:

    @Farooq

    '...There are enough sensible people in the Conservative Party to form a decent government.'

    This is no doubt true, Faro, but they're all on the backbenches, no?

    Mostly, yes. But a new PM could see a significant changing of the guard.

    I guess what I'm saying is that someone like Hunt taking over necessary but way short of sufficient. I think most people can probably agree to that? I'm only saying that the attitude of "Hunt's in, whoopee, all the problems are gone!" is.. misguided.
    The other problem with Hunt, come to think of it, is that while I’d fully expect him to ditch Patel, Braverman, Raab and many of the other loonies, he will have to do SOME deal with the ERG foamers.

    Witness his bizarre use of “EUSSR” when he was up against it during the last leadership bid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
    Yup, that makes sense.

    There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
    I'm trying to get Evens on him losing a VOC matched but no luck yet. Got 1.96 earlier.
    Personally I'd take 4/5 now but you hardly need my advice.
    Had a few quid at 2.6 on Betfair for him not to be PM by the October conference.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 169
    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    Depends who he's up against IMO. I think he has a greater than 50% chance of beating Truss but a lower than 50% chance of beating Wallace (and I don't think Tugendhat should be that short).

    It's not clear that any candidate will make it past the MPs but two must.
    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership. If past experience teaches us anything it is the the party will vote for the more right wing of the two candidates presented to them irrespective of suitability, until they have been out of office for long enough to come to their senses. But don't ask me who will be AN Other, it could be almost anyone.

    Hunt's best chance is that he is in the two presented to the membership and then AN Other self-destructs, as per May. Possible if it is a relative unknown.

    As an aside, it strikes me that it shows how desperate things are for the Tories that probably the best candidate for PM is a man who was widely derided/hated as Health Secretary in the Coalition.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053

    I can't help but wonder whether Boris, if he goes, will be judged to be the author of his own downfall because of his two-facedness. As I understand it, at both stages of the Gray Report publication (interim and final) he has played the mea culpa, deeply apologetic, I take responsibility, humble persona act both to Parliament and the public. Then, out of public sight, with his own MPs (1922 meetings), he gave bravura knockabout speeches, made jokes about parties, took the piss out of Starmer, and generally made light of the whole sordid episode. I think this was a misjudgment, if true.

    If I were a Tory MP, even a loyal one, I would seriously doubt the sincerity of his apologies and would think: "he hasn't really taken responsibility, has he?".

    I think theres a lot to this.
    His entire response to partygate has felt like he really just wants to scream 'lockdown was for the plebs, not us!'
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    edited May 31

    When you keep clashing with people, at some point you have to think perhaps it you not them.

    Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’

    Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd

    Carrie Johnson, Megan Markle, Amber Heard.

    I can’t quite work out whether this an age or borderline personality disorder misfits, or an age of unseemly misogyny, or both.

    The only real fact I know about Carrie is that was dumped from her Tory PR job for expense discrepancies, and then walked straight into some non-job sinecure from the Goldsmith dynasty.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053
    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    No financial skin in this game, MM, but if I did have I'd be going green on 2022 now. It's all looking a bit inauspicious for him.

    2.38 Johnson to go 2022. Versus 1.91 on him losing VOC with money back if no VOC in 2022. I prefer the latter bet I think.
    Yup, that makes sense.

    There are probably other ways of making money too out of the rumble if we're right in suspecting that the tectonic plates are starting to shift, but your suggestion looks as good as any.
    I'm trying to get Evens on him losing a VOC matched but no luck yet. Got 1.96 earlier.
    Personally I'd take 4/5 now but you hardly need my advice.
    Had a few quid at 2.6 on Betfair for him not to be PM by the October conference.
    Talking of conference, if hes gone id pay good money to see May do her walking to the podium dance entering some side meeting with a big grin on her face.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    Why would he not get past the membership? If because of his 2016 vote, I would remind you that it isn't 2019 any more.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,135
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    I don't have any personal information, but I'm a constituent and know him a bit. I'm pretty sure he'll stand, and I agree he'd be good medicine for their Blue Wall problem, more so than Wallace or Truss.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    Why has this MP asked not to be identified?
    Are his initials ABdePJ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,908

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Mhairi Black talking about the HY tendency of the New Party:

    I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.

    It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.

    It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.


    The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.

    Fascism.
    Fascism generally does come with jackboots. The glorification of violence is part of its root and marrow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,778

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: Just spoke to a Tory MP who was absolutely scathing about 2019-er Elliot Colburn submitting his no confidence letter:

    ‘This is a man who wouldn’t be an MP if it weren’t for Boris’

    On the prospect of a confidence vote: ‘Bring it on - he would win it’

    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1531637348169093120

    Why has this MP asked not to be identified?
    Sounds like someone who is as safe as houses. Arable Lincolnshire, Essex, Rural Norfolk or Suffolk sort of MP
    One of those with no spine.
    Or somewhere in Mid Bedfordshire.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    edited May 31
    The mood darkens in Tbilisi as news of Boris’ problems reaches the Old Town



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    edited May 31

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    I don't have any personal information, but I'm a constituent and know him a bit. I'm pretty sure he'll stand, and I agree he'd be good medicine for their Blue Wall problem, more so than Wallace or Truss.
    I'm not a massive fan, but he does at least seem to have acknowledged mistakes he made in office, and has continued an active interest in the brief after leaving office.
    It demonstrates, at the very least, something in his character absent from most of the cabinet.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
    You sound like you want to convert him, GW. Why?
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 167
    15% of Conservatives MPs is less than it was after the 2019 election.

    As Conservative numbers reduce with expulsions/by-elections so the 54 letters needed for a leadership challenge gets less.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
    You sound like you want to convert him, GW. Why?
    Convert him to what?

    I think the reason for posting is to engage.
    Call me a Habermasian dreamer, if you like.

    HYUFD doesn’t post; he sprays.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,433

    eek said:

    Interesting Bloomberg article just appeared on my twitter feed

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-30/sterling-risks-existential-crisis-with-em-parallels-bofa-says

    Sterling has a whole set of problems that interest rate rises won't solve and may exacerbate.

    While the emerging market label is silly (in my opinion), the point about a politicised and obfuscatory Bank of England is very valid.

    It’s interesting to note the poor performance of the pound this year. Obviously some of it is the “retreat to the dollar”, but that has also afflicted other currencies.

    The pound has been hit additionally because investors aren’t buying the government’s economic strategy.

    Needless to say this adds to inflation outlook, and perhaps explain why some analysts believe inflation will be more persistent in the UK than in peer economies.
    The view that GBP (Great British Peso) is increasingly trading like an EM currency isn't an uncommon one in financial markets, in my experience. People don't think the country has an economic strategy post Brexit, the government is seen as high tax and spend without delivering good services, and the BOE is seen as unreliable and too tolerant of inflation. Occasionally someone tries to sell the line that GBP is cheap, but it never seems to have many takers.
    Recall that Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world before WW1. It could happen to us if we keep making bad choices.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,108

    There is a certain irony in the members who want Boris to cease to be PM going and canvassing hard to keep the by-elections from being opposition gains, when their loss would likely be the final nail.

    That is a very powerful message for these byelections, Mr Mark. Thank you.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
    You sound like you want to convert him, GW. Why?
    Convert him to what?

    I think the reason for posting is to engage.
    Call me a Habermasian dreamer, if you like.

    HYUFD doesn’t post; he sprays.
    He's not the only regular that could be said about. At least he believes in something, rather than just bitching about people he hates. And he pretty much always uses his own words.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    edited May 31
    A global recession is coming, says this guy.

    https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1531333186621513730?s=21&t=2ZKj8dNd65O8cyaCmxpTqg

    Contra the brief discussion earlier, I don’t think the UK is immune. I would also note that while household saving levels remain good, this for upper deciles only.

    This is an extremely bifurcated situation, where the wealthier are keeping the show (but also inflation) going via increased spending during a supply shock - whole poorer people just go to the wall in ways not seen since the mid 80s.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 167

    When you keep clashing with people, at some point you have to think perhaps it you not them.

    Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’

    Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd

    Carrie Johnson, Megan Markle, Amber Heard.

    I can’t quite work out whether this an age or borderline personality disorder misfits, or an age of unseemly misogyny, or both.

    The only real fact I know about Carrie is that was dumped from her Tory PR job for expense discrepancies, and then walked straight into some non-job sinecure from the Goldsmith dynasty.
    Carrie seems to have too great a sense of entitlement eg wallpaper and housekeeper.

    Time for Boris to move on to wife number four?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    eek said:

    Interesting Bloomberg article just appeared on my twitter feed

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-30/sterling-risks-existential-crisis-with-em-parallels-bofa-says

    Sterling has a whole set of problems that interest rate rises won't solve and may exacerbate.

    While the emerging market label is silly (in my opinion), the point about a politicised and obfuscatory Bank of England is very valid.

    It’s interesting to note the poor performance of the pound this year. Obviously some of it is the “retreat to the dollar”, but that has also afflicted other currencies.

    The pound has been hit additionally because investors aren’t buying the government’s economic strategy.

    Needless to say this adds to inflation outlook, and perhaps explain why some analysts believe inflation will be more persistent in the UK than in peer economies.
    The view that GBP (Great British Peso) is increasingly trading like an EM currency isn't an uncommon one in financial markets, in my experience. People don't think the country has an economic strategy post Brexit, the government is seen as high tax and spend without delivering good services, and the BOE is seen as unreliable and too tolerant of inflation. Occasionally someone tries to sell the line that GBP is cheap, but it never seems to have many takers.
    Recall that Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world before WW1. It could happen to us if we keep making bad choices.
    It is a risk probably underestimated here.
    Whoever is in No.10 in a couple of years' time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    I don't have any personal information, but I'm a constituent and know him a bit. I'm pretty sure he'll stand, and I agree he'd be good medicine for their Blue Wall problem, more so than Wallace or Truss.
    He isnt without a few whiffs of potential scandal though. Expenses, property, failure to declare, Hillsborough comments, pissing off junior doctors and the subsequent strikes.
    The Q is are any if these prone to 'reactivation' by media
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    History suggests they'll go for Priti Truss or Raab. The only possibles who haven't compromised themselves by being over supportive nor overtly disloyal by dumping on him. All of them no-hopers. As is two-times loser Hunt.

    The only real danger to Starmer-bright human and articulate-is Rishi but Johnson's screwed him before he got out of the blocks.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,413
    Pensfold said:

    15% of Conservatives MPs is less than it was after the 2019 election.

    As Conservative numbers reduce with expulsions/by-elections so the 54 letters needed for a leadership challenge gets less.

    Slowly. It was 55 needed after GE 19. If, improbably, the Tories won both by elections, it would be 55 again.

    They would need to lose a further 6 MPs for it to be 53.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Mhairi Black talking about the HY tendency of the New Party:

    I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.

    It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.

    It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.


    The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.

    Fascism.
    Fascism generally does come with jackboots. The glorification of violence is part of its root and marrow.
    We've parked the violence against citizens, instead we're glorifying cruelty. Refugees (deported somewhere dangerous if we don't sink them first), the poor (can't cook, are lazy, only spend money on drugs) etc etc. You want to protest? Sorry, we're making that illegal. And will move against "leftie lawyers" who try to uphold the law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,288

    When you keep clashing with people, at some point you have to think perhaps it you not them.

    Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’

    Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd

    Payoff funded by the taxpayer I take it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,308
    Applicant said:



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
    You sound like you want to convert him, GW. Why?
    Convert him to what?

    I think the reason for posting is to engage.
    Call me a Habermasian dreamer, if you like.

    HYUFD doesn’t post; he sprays.
    He's not the only regular that could be said about. At least he believes in something, rather than just bitching about people he hates. And he pretty much always uses his own words.
    HYUFD believes in something?
    I think the jury’s out on that.

    I don’t mean to unduly pick on the guy, I just think kjh makes some entirely reasonable points upthread.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,433

    A global recession is coming, says this guy.

    https://twitter.com/robinbrooksiif/status/1531333186621513730?s=21&t=2ZKj8dNd65O8cyaCmxpTqg

    Contra the brief discussion earlier, I don’t think the UK is immune. I would also note that while household saving levels remain good, this for upper deciles only.

    This is an extremely bifurcated situation, where the wealthier are keeping the show (but also inflation) going via increased spending during a supply shock - whole poorer people just go to the wall in ways not seen since the mid 80s.

    Robin Brooks is a first rate economist (and a friend of mine!) FWIW I see a global recession next year not this year but I do think it is likely to happen before 2024.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 878



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    FWIW I agree with you. But he does say some jaw-droppingly daft things which for me undermines the good stuff he does say.

    But I do begrudgingly admire his inexhaustible reservoir of sheer bloody-minded stubbornness in a strange kind of way.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,053
    edited May 31
    Roger said:

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    History suggests they'll go for Priti Truss or Raab. The only possibles who haven't compromised themselves by being over supportive nor overtly disloyal by dumping on him. All of them no-hopers. As is two-times loser Hunt.

    The only real danger to Starmer-bright human and articulate-is Rishi but Johnson's screwed him before he got out of the blocks.

    Almost anyone is a danger to Starmer. He has completely failed to make any impression as LOTO, he is very fortunate to be facing Johnson. He barely leads a fat discredited dog on its deathbed as best PM.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475



    Yep. There’s a school of thought which says HYUFD is unfailingly polite and mostly harmless.

    The problem with this theory is that he’s a lying troll who appears to be pathologically amoral.

    By all means he should be free to post, he occasionally makes interesting psephological points; but there’s very little merit in actually engaging with him.

    Routine comment on this sort of thing - anonymous posters slagging each other off is the least interesting side of PB. We can decide what we think for ourselves.

    But as you've raised it - I think it's valuable to have a loyal Conservative who offers strikingly honest assessments of how they see the outlook, and exchanges with him on prospects are often illuminating. I don't think it's a necessary qualification that they have views that we agree with, or even "acceptable" to most of us. I'd be equally happy to see a Trump or Putin supporter posting here, so long as they had the same policy of being both polite and honest.
    Sure, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth to actually engage. He won’t budge, he doesn’t learn, he’s not interested, and he seems to get off on it.
    You sound like you want to convert him, GW. Why?
    Convert him to what?

    I think the reason for posting is to engage.
    Call me a Habermasian dreamer, if you like.

    HYUFD doesn’t post; he sprays.
    So, engage with others. There are plenty here that do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,055

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    In next CP leads market (BF) Hunt clear favourite at 6.2, Truss 8.2, Tugendat 8.4, Wallace 10.5.

    I can't see Hunt getting past the membership - I would sell him.

    (Heck it is far from clear that he either stands or makes it past the MPs. Big sell.)
    I don't have any personal information, but I'm a constituent and know him a bit. I'm pretty sure he'll stand, and I agree he'd be good medicine for their Blue Wall problem, more so than Wallace or Truss.
    Do you think he’d be able to keep the red wall too ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,128

    kjh said:

    HYUFD is guilty of three types of both deliberate and unintended manipulation and never owns up:

    a) Getting it wrong and moving the goal posts as above (deliberate)
    b) Believing something is correct because it is on the internet (rookie error)
    c) Completely misinterpreting/misunderstanding the data that he has linked to (accidental and frequent)

    In the case of b) and c) he will argue until blue in the face he is correct because it is a ‘Fact’. Here is a classic example of b) and c) together:

    A few weeks ago he used a chart of average IQ results by country which he took as ‘Fact’. Unfortunately, it also showed the average IQ of many African and other third world countries were at a level of a very young child (5 – 7) or an adult with a very serious mental handicap. Rather than accept the chart was flawed (at least in this respect) he repeated over and over again it was a ‘Fact’ based entirely on him reading it off the internet. Common sense tells you it is nonsense. He even claimed it was the reason Africans were so poor i.e. they are stupid (which sounds just a touch racist to me).

    Sorry everyone. I feel much better now.

    Mhairi Black talking about the HY tendency of the New Party:

    I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.

    It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.

    It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.


    The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.

    Fascism.
    It’s quite surprising that she would draw attention to the practices of the Scottish Government in such as explicit manner.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Such a killer paragraph from Mike but will the tories see sense?

    'His supporters argue that Johnson’s great strength is that he is seen as an election winner. My response is that his victories over the discredited LAB figures of Livingstone and Corbyn are really no big deal.'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    edited May 31

    Mhairi Black talking about the HY tendency of the New Party:

    I am talking about fascism—fascism wrapped in red, white and blue. You may mock and you may disagree, but fascism does not come in with intentional evil plans or the introduction of leather jackboots. It does not happen like that. It happens subtly.

    It happens when we see Governments making decisions based on self-preservation, based on cronyism, based on anything that will keep them in power, when we see the concentration of power while avoiding any of the scrutiny or responsibility that comes with that power.

    It arrives under the guise of respectability and pride, which will then be refused to anyone who is deemed different. It arrives through the othering of people and the normalisation of human cruelty. I do not know how far down that road we are. Time will tell, but the things we do in the name of economic growth—the warning signs are there for everyone else to see, whether they admit it or not.


    The othering of people. Wrapped in faux-christian send in the tanks patriotism. Avoiding scrutiny and the responsibility that comes with it. And the endless othering of people who we are told can literally be ignored - the end of democracy.

    Fascism.

    Thanks for proving me right and yourself wrong:

    The phenomenon of seeing creeping fascism absolutely everywhere is one of the strangest aspects of modern Western politics.

    Fascinating. Who said anything about fascism? Putin isn't fascist. Johnson isn't fascist.

    You know that you are describing yourself with that post don't you?

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3887566/#Comment_3887566
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,040
    Pensfold said:

    When you keep clashing with people, at some point you have to think perhaps it you not them.

    Chequers housekeeper ‘forced out by clash with Carrie Johnson’

    Charlotte Vine MBE, who first worked at the prime minister’s official country residence in 2004, left with a payoff in 2020 after signing a non-disclosure agreement.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd

    Carrie Johnson, Megan Markle, Amber Heard.

    I can’t quite work out whether this an age or borderline personality disorder misfits, or an age of unseemly misogyny, or both.

    The only real fact I know about Carrie is that was dumped from her Tory PR job for expense discrepancies, and then walked straight into some non-job sinecure from the Goldsmith dynasty.
    Carrie seems to have too great a sense of entitlement eg wallpaper and housekeeper.

    Time for Boris to move on to wife number four?
    Even if he wanted to, he couldn't afford it, could he?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    OT Sainsbury's sitrep: very few masks today. Long queues at the few open tills.

    Not sure why. It could be that schools are closed so till staff are home on baby-sitting duty, or, less likely, that maskless customers are spreading Covid.

    Some gaps on shelves. Bananas are yellow again (green last week).
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,055
    Roger said:

    Keir needs a reverse dead cat to KEEP Boris in situ.

    Suggest the next head of the Serious Crimes Unit should be transgender or something.

    There’s a real risk that Keir loses if Boris is ousted.

    History suggests they'll go for Priti Truss or Raab. The only possibles who haven't compromised themselves by being over supportive nor overtly disloyal by dumping on him. All of them no-hopers. As is two-times loser Hunt.

    The only real danger to Starmer-bright human and articulate-is Rishi but Johnson's screwed him before he got out of the blocks.

    Priti, Truss or Raab would be a disaster for the Tories and for the country. Starmer would canter home in 2024 and that would be better for the country than five years of either of those three. Raab would lose his seat too.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    OT flag sitrep. The house opposite that had its windows filled with upside-down union flags now has them all the right way up. Someone must have had a word.
This discussion has been closed.