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2022 is now betting favourite for Johnson’s exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nadine Dorries announces Bradford as UK city of culture 2025

    Was she drunk when she announced that !
    To Nadine Dorries every city with a Wetherspoons is a City of Culture
    Doesn’t Bradford have a film festival?
    Lots of cities have a film festival. Even Edinburgh has one, and you'd think it had plenty already (actually, I think it's one of the more reasonable ones, because capacity is inherently limited).
    I seem to dimly recall that when I was applying for unis places back in 80s, Bradford had an amazing reputation for photography.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited May 2022
    Wordle 346 4/6*

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    🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    First time I have ever had 5 different yellows ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nadine Dorries announces Bradford as UK city of culture 2025

    Was she drunk when she announced that !
    To Nadine Dorries every city with a Wetherspoons is a City of Culture
    Doesn’t Bradford have a film festival?
    Lots of cities have a film festival. Even Edinburgh has one, and you'd think it had plenty already (actually, I think it's one of the more reasonable ones, because capacity is inherently limited).
    I seem to dimly recall that when I was applying for unis places back in 80s, Bradford had an amazing reputation for photography.
    It has an industrial museum in an old mill - looks quite promising on the web. Definitely worth a trip sometime.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Sam Freedman points out Boris Johnson is on course to lose his seat, Tory MPs can ignore this early election guff.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW:  Conservative MPs war-gaming how a rebellion against Boris Johnson might play out are worried the PM could respond to a slim victory in a party vote of confidence by calling a general election.

    Story to follow...

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1531716132859785217

    I'm sure that is very sensible - the public would probably love to go into an early election prompted entirely by internal Conservative politicking.
    Has the advantage that half way through a GE contest this summer the leader of the opposition has to resign as he got a FPN for a curry.

    Pass the popcorn....
    What does happen in Labour if the leader and deputy both fall under the same bus, and there isn't time to select replacements in the normal way?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nadine Dorries announces Bradford as UK city of culture 2025

    Was she drunk when she announced that !
    To Nadine Dorries every city with a Wetherspoons is a City of Culture
    Doesn’t Bradford have a film festival?
    Lots of cities have a film festival. Even Edinburgh has one, and you'd think it had plenty already (actually, I think it's one of the more reasonable ones, because capacity is inherently limited).
    I seem to dimly recall that when I was applying for unis places back in 80s, Bradford had an amazing reputation for photography.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Venimore_Godwin
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Roger said:

    Just caught a headline, "Starmer and Rayner issued with..."

    Looks bad.

    As Dominic Grieve had to explain to the hapless interviewer on Ch4 News that is simply proceedural
    Yes, its an investigation into a possible offence. Proceedures are followed.
    I'm sure it was vital for them all to be gathered together to have dinner with Mary Foy as per the agenda, and they have nothing to worry about and aren't massive hypocrites. Time and plod will tell.
    Whether Starmer and Rayner receive FPNs is to an extent besides the point and doesn't prove them "massive hypocrites". Beergate may turn out to have breached the letter of the law and they fall, but however Johnsonians pitch it, Partygate was on a wholly different scale.

    I suspect that had Durham Constabulary known what they now know wasn't investigated by the Met, they wouldn't have touched Beergate with Johnson's Johnson, if he has one.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Roger said:

    Sad to see the hatred of Bradford.
    Never been (except sitting at the train station once, trying to get to Hebden Bridge) but fine architecture I hear.

    Plus, the birthplace of David Hockney.

    We should try to get back into the European capital of culture though tho, which gets proper investment and attention.

    If you'd been, you'd understand.
    The photography museum is well worth a visit and the Barbara Hepworth sculpture park is somewhere near.....and there's a Wetherspoon's nearby.....
    A long time since we've done a leisure half day trip that way, a few Bradford bits worth time, good sit down posh curry houses of course, the Media museum, Saltaire and the mill / Hockney mish mash exhibit, there is 15 minutes of old grandeur to look at around the centre but the malign hand of a town planner is never more than 50 yds away. I believe the old cemetery is a one of the grander ones around if that floats your boat.

    Not aware the quality of any municipal museum and gallery - I often seek that level out in a town for a quick scoosh.

    The Hepworth and sculpture stuff is concentrated around Wakefield, about 10 miles away.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Pope Pius XII doesn't come out of this at all well.

    Adolf Hitler and the wartime Pope, Pius XII, discussed a secret co-operation using Queen Victoria’s great-grandson as a go-between, newly published Vatican documents have revealed.

    In long-distance negotiations held between 1939 and 1941, Pius discussed stifling criticism of Hitler in return for an end to the Nazi crackdown on the church in Germany, according to archive material hidden for 80 years by the Vatican.

    The secret communications were conducted with the help of Hitler’s emissary, Prince Philipp of Hesse, a 36-year-old German aristocrat descended from Queen Victoria who was a third cousin of the Queen....

    ...“[Pope Pius] also knew denouncing atrocities could antagonise the German Catholic soldiers who were shooting Jews. He remembered the Reformation and didn’t want to create a schism between Catholics in Germany,” he said.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hitler-sent-nazi-prince-to-broker-secret-deal-with-pope-vatican-papers-reveal-jqd06vkqs#Echobox=1654014132

    He must have been knocking on a bit if he remembered the reformation.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Two things. Firstly, judging by the way everyone is talking on here, the only thing now that can save Boris is something the causes a deep and immediate political freeze that lasts the few weeks and distracts the public. So, er, long live the King I guess.

    You're not following your thoughts on fascism to their logical conclusion:

    @IndiaWilloughby
    When the Queen dies, wouldn’t be surprised if Boris appoints himself Fuhrer and assumes total control. That’s how close I think Britain is to Nazi Germany.


    https://twitter.com/IndiaWilloughby/status/1528554584481927173
    Perhaps I am naiive, but I think we are slightly further away from Nazi Germany than that.
    We haven't even got to the cabaret club stage.

    For shame.
    Reached the depraved sex stage though: overweight pole dancers wrapped in UJs, sexy tractors, the possibility that someone might bump uglies with Fabricant, it's like a heavy night on Potsdamer Strasse.
    IIRC they had specialist nightvclubs/streets for every kink in Weimar Berlin, if Philip Kerr's novels are any guide.
    Ja!

    Don't know what the German equivalent of phwoarrr is..




    Did you notice someone put the back tyres on wrong?
    Are you sure. Check out the John Deere tyre patterns. This orientation squeezes out the mud to give big traction:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4KHVvJ9nTI

    Or are you talking about the one on the left? That looks like a spare to me, propped against the wall, not on the tractor.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    This thread has been sent to Bradford

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,959
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Republican Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance calls for banning all porn to "Save Families".

    Who wants to tell him about his dear leader's $130k payment to a porn star?


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1531615024288043009

    Most of Pornhub seems to encourage families to come together.
    Literally.
    Over me
    Over my head
    Not a passionate Beatles fan, then?

    Without them, no Radiohead. Think on that.
    Also no Frog Chorus.
    Even better, no fcking Gallaghers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a Spurs fan it all feels very odd that we've already signed two players before the window has properly opened and we've got two likely signings in Spence and Bastoni to be completed in the next week or so and 3-4 more to come.

    Baby Jen truly has been born into a different era, long may it continue.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQtUJZkB_hGlRhNLzlK_YsNAb14MUgQC368mg&usqp=CAU
    Arsenal fans are just so bitter. Have fun on those Thursday nights! Super Mikel couldn't get Champions League.
    Don’t worry, I’m not bitter. :)

    But it does make me smile. For years, I had to put up with morons (both Arsenal fans and fans of other clubs) criticising us for finishing in the Top 4.

    Whilst I’d take winning a cup over finishing fourth, I wouldn’t take winning a cup over having a team capable of finishing fourth. And having a team capable of finishing fourth is very difficult to achieve.
    I think the criticism from rival fans was that Arsenal seemed to believe that 4th was an achievement in and of itself rather than a stepping stone to greater things. Spurs, at least this time and the last few times we were in it definitely attempted to win and compete on all stages.

    There really does seem to have been a huge lowering of expectations at Arsenal, I don't understand how the fans are satisfied with the season or the manager. He's clearly out of his depth and having spent £150 last summer and £100m the summer before I'm also not sure how much more the owners will be willing to sink into the club while he's in charge.

    Getting Conte and Paritici in is the best thing Spurs have done in ages. They're both world class in their positions and now we've held onto them as well as Kane and Son there's a semblance of something great being assembled at Hotspur Way.

    If I was an Arsenal fan I'd be looking over my shoulder at Newcastle, Man United and Leicester all of whom have better managers and the first two will out muscle Arsenal in the transfer market all summer. I'd also say Howe and Ten Hag are a bigger pull factor than Arteta. The way Arteta has publicly fallen out with star players like Aubameyang, Pepe and Guendouzi is going to be a factor in getting that big name world class signing.
    I think that’s harsh. In the Champions League, in our run of top four finishes, we lost to:

    2007: PSV - Last 16 (that was disappointing to be fair)
    2008: Liverpool - QF (we were cheated)
    2009: Man Utd - SF (they were quite good)
    2010: Barcelona - QF (they were quite good)
    2011: Barcelona - L16 (we were cheated)
    2012: Milan (we were cheated)
    2013: Bayern (they were quite good)
    2014: Bayern (they were quite good)
    2015: Monaco (disappointing)
    2016: Barcelona (they were quite good)

    As for Arteta, I’m happy with him. We can’t keep sacking the manager. We didn’t get a pre-season last year because of COVID, so hopefully we’ll make a better start.

    Of the three players you mention, it’s only Gurndouzi that I feel Arteta should have done more to accommodate as it’s our weak position. Aubameyang stunk the place out and sadly Pepe was the final disaster of the idiots that were spunking my money up the wall a few years ago.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,959
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Two things. Firstly, judging by the way everyone is talking on here, the only thing now that can save Boris is something the causes a deep and immediate political freeze that lasts the few weeks and distracts the public. So, er, long live the King I guess.

    You're not following your thoughts on fascism to their logical conclusion:

    @IndiaWilloughby
    When the Queen dies, wouldn’t be surprised if Boris appoints himself Fuhrer and assumes total control. That’s how close I think Britain is to Nazi Germany.


    https://twitter.com/IndiaWilloughby/status/1528554584481927173
    Perhaps I am naiive, but I think we are slightly further away from Nazi Germany than that.
    We haven't even got to the cabaret club stage.

    For shame.
    Reached the depraved sex stage though: overweight pole dancers wrapped in UJs, sexy tractors, the possibility that someone might bump uglies with Fabricant, it's like a heavy night on Potsdamer Strasse.
    IIRC they had specialist nightvclubs/streets for every kink in Weimar Berlin, if Philip Kerr's novels are any guide.
    Ja!

    Don't know what the German equivalent of phwoarrr is..




    Did you notice someone put the back tyres on wrong?
    The Germans always did proper pervy
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Two things. Firstly, judging by the way everyone is talking on here, the only thing now that can save Boris is something the causes a deep and immediate political freeze that lasts the few weeks and distracts the public. So, er, long live the King I guess.

    You're not following your thoughts on fascism to their logical conclusion:

    @IndiaWilloughby
    When the Queen dies, wouldn’t be surprised if Boris appoints himself Fuhrer and assumes total control. That’s how close I think Britain is to Nazi Germany.


    https://twitter.com/IndiaWilloughby/status/1528554584481927173
    Perhaps I am naiive, but I think we are slightly further away from Nazi Germany than that.
    We haven't even got to the cabaret club stage.

    For shame.
    Reached the depraved sex stage though: overweight pole dancers wrapped in UJs, sexy tractors, the possibility that someone might bump uglies with Fabricant, it's like a heavy night on Potsdamer Strasse.
    IIRC they had specialist nightvclubs/streets for every kink in Weimar Berlin, if Philip Kerr's novels are any guide.
    Ja!

    Don't know what the German equivalent of phwoarrr is..




    Did you notice someone put the back tyres on wrong?
    Are you sure. Check out the John Deere tyre patterns. This orientation squeezes out the mud to give big traction:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4KHVvJ9nTI

    Or are you talking about the one on the left? That looks like a spare to me, propped against the wall, not on the tractor.
    Oh, so it is, a spare, thanks!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nadine Dorries announces Bradford as UK city of culture 2025

    Was she drunk when she announced that !
    To Nadine Dorries every city with a Wetherspoons is a City of Culture
    Doesn’t Bradford have a film festival?
    Lots of cities have a film festival. Even Edinburgh has one, and you'd think it had plenty already (actually, I think it's one of the more reasonable ones, because capacity is inherently limited).
    I seem to dimly recall that when I was applying for unis places back in 80s, Bradford had an amazing reputation for photography.
    It has an industrial museum in an old mill - looks quite promising on the web. Definitely worth a trip sometime.
    It’s not without culture.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford#Culture

    And, of course, the UK’s premier exponent of curry.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    This thread has been sent to Bradford

    Of course. As soon as I post something.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    rcs1000 said:

    We need to be sending people to Rwanda for it to discourage anyone from getting on a dinghy and setting sail for our rainy haven. This is welcome news therefore.

    I quite like the Government being in desperation mode. It would be nice if they were so desperate to placate the voting public all the time.

    I'm all in favour of the government building a proper offshore processing facility, and prioritising those who go there directly, rather than trekking across the Med and Europe to get to the UK, and then submitting an asylum request.

    I am more sceptical of us just dumping a small number of people in Rwanda, and then not actually doing any processing. It seems more like it's designed for tabloid headlines than to actually solve the problem.
    Yes, 4 offshore processing facilities would be good, and the successful applicants should then be brought to Britain. But not prioritising those who go there directly - ONLY processing claims there.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    YES!!!!


    *airpunch*


    “Rwanda deportation: First migrants to be sent to east African country in a fortnight, says Home Office“”

    https://news.sky.com/story/rwanda-deportation-first-migrants-to-be-sent-to-east-african-country-in-a-fortnight-says-home-office-12624907

    GET IN

    And just imagine how furious you'll be when the courts put the flights on hold because of legal challenges. You will be incandescent and you will heap hate on the lefty lawyers and the judicial establishment. And so the government's culture war strategy will be vindicated once more and on we will go.

    Jesus F Sodding Christ. Do I really need to spell this out?

    It was a joke AIMED at this ludicrous Tory “policy” which the Tory government has no intention of applying in any way that makes sense (ie you have to do it to everyone, like Australia, or it won’t work) because the Tories are futile cowards, scared of the BBC

    If I thought the Tories might actually get all Australian on these migrants, and actually deport them, I would not “air punch”. It would be a grim and ugly necessity, something to be sadly regretted, and reluctantly accepted, not celebrated

    I did me comment to see what daft Lefties would get outraged. An IQ test. You failed
    I knew you joking and teasing.

    There isn’t anyone in this country… I’ll rephrase that, there is no UK citizen anywhere in the world who actually believes this costly policy will actually work to get THAT excited about it.

    But it is a damaging issue for the incumbent conservatives, if not this “fig leaf” proposal, what real policy can they turn to?

    I havn’t a clue. These people are not just fleeing oppression, be it tribal, political, sexual, war, poverty, lack of future if they keep going through many other countries to come here - There is this ‘Dick Whittington’ mentality about the people crossing third of the world, through other countries, risking their lives just to come here - whilst they have that in their heads what can you Really do? Germany wants them, yet they want to be here. What can you do?
    Only two approaches will work with the boat people problem: give up and let them all in, or be ruthless and throw them all out - and if you're going for the latter you need strong legislation that is made explicitly superior to the Human Rights Act, and a lot of expensive infrastructure: enough patrol vessels on constant watch in the Channel to intercept all the dinghies, and a high capacity and remote offshoring facility.

    The Government daren't let them all in because most of the electorate wants rid of them, as per these results: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/11/30/four-five-britons-disapprove-governments-handling- It isn't nearly nasty enough to lock them all out properly, either. So it flails around in the middle, doing stunts to try to make itself look tough yet ultimately pleasing no-one.

    The next Government will, of course, also flail around in the middle on this issue and also please no-one.
    I disagree.

    The UK has a problem because:

    (a) It has insanely long asylum processing times
    and
    (b) There is a large informal labour sector in the UK, where people can work without documentation

    The combination of these two factors makes the UK a big pull. You won't get sent back quickly... and you can earn a decent wage working.

    Let's put this in context for a second. Norway estimates they have fewer than 300 illegal immigrants in the whole country - despite being an enormously prosperous country, in Schengen, with close to zero unemployment. (Oh, and they don't bother with enforcement of failed asylum claims, because people 'self deport')

    Why? Because there's next to no informal labour market in Norway. You won't be able to get a place to live, a bank account or a job if you don't have the proper documentation.

    Result, no problem.
    Here's a good article - https://www.newsinenglish.no/2017/07/31/life-too-difficult-for-illegal-aliens/
    It is more realistic to compare the UK with other countries of similar population size and density; ie Germany, France, Italy, Spain, USA etc all of which have roughly similar problems.
    I've had quite a few dealings with Nordic bureaucracies, they work because people have a lot of trust in the government; people in the UK tend to be a lot more suspicious. The ID database didn't work and Covid passes were fiercely resisted.
    Obviously it isn't funny for the people involved, but we seem destined to have comical half measures for the foreseeable future. The Rwanda plan is an example of one. It is almost a parody of a serious policy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Roger said:

    Just caught a headline, "Starmer and Rayner issued with..."

    Looks bad.

    As Dominic Grieve had to explain to the hapless interviewer on Ch4 News that is simply proceedural
    Yes, its an investigation into a possible offence. Proceedures are followed.
    I'm sure it was vital for them all to be gathered together to have dinner with Mary Foy as per the agenda, and they have nothing to worry about and aren't massive hypocrites. Time and plod will tell.
    Whether Starmer and Rayner receive FPNs is to an extent besides the point and doesn't prove them "massive hypocrites". Beergate may turn out to have breached the letter of the law and they fall, but however Johnsonians pitch it, Partygate was on a wholly different scale.

    I suspect that had Durham Constabulary known what they now know wasn't investigated by the Met, they wouldn't have touched Beergate with Johnson's Johnson, if he has one.
    Johnson is a shit who partied whilst we suffered and sacrificed under his insane lockdown nonsense, Starmer had simply no reason to have beer and curry advertised on his agenda as 'dinner with Mary Foy MP' as the final event of the day with 15 to 20 others. They can both go to hell. Degrees of shittiness are irrelevant as they were both eager beavers to lock us down.
    Partygate is a wider ranging series of systemic crap behaviour but Starmer and Rayner are still hypocrites.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Roger said:

    Just caught a headline, "Starmer and Rayner issued with..."

    Looks bad.

    As Dominic Grieve had to explain to the hapless interviewer on Ch4 News that is simply proceedural
    Yes, its an investigation into a possible offence. Proceedures are followed.
    I'm sure it was vital for them all to be gathered together to have dinner with Mary Foy as per the agenda, and they have nothing to worry about and aren't massive hypocrites. Time and plod will tell.
    Whether Starmer and Rayner receive FPNs is to an extent besides the point and doesn't prove them "massive hypocrites". Beergate may turn out to have breached the letter of the law and they fall, but however Johnsonians pitch it, Partygate was on a wholly different scale.

    I suspect that had Durham Constabulary known what they now know wasn't investigated by the Met, they wouldn't have touched Beergate with Johnson's Johnson, if he has one.
    Johnson is a shit who partied whilst we suffered and sacrificed under his insane lockdown nonsense, Starmer had simply no reason to have beer and curry advertised on his agenda as 'dinner with Mary Foy MP' as the final event of the day with 15 to 20 others. They can both go to hell. Degrees of shittiness are irrelevant as they were both eager beavers to lock us down.
    Partygate is a wider ranging series of systemic crap behaviour but Starmer and Rayner are still hypocrites.
    I suspect if Starmer and Rayner go down, many of the rest of us who took a break for a M & S sandwich and a mineral water over lunch, chatting with our colleagues whilst in the workplace can count ourselves lucky.

    Johnson took the piss, whereas I suspect most people did not. The fact that it turns out the police chose not to investigate potentially the worst events beggar belief.

    Degrees of rule breaking in this instance really do matter. Do you think what went on in the Miners Institute wasn't replicated on the Conservative campaign? The Chief Constable was hijacked by Ivo Delingpole and the Daily Mail. She must be regretting the decision after it turns out the Met. were only pretending to investigate Johnson.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Is it possible that Brady might tell one or two Tory MPs to consider withdrawing their letters of confidence before resubmitting them after the Jubilee weekend?
This discussion has been closed.