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Voting intention – the educational divide – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632
    Pagan2 said:

    Considers the situation of Cyclefree being Leons new mother in law...decides i must be living in one of the stranger universes
    We are running a long long way ahead of ourselves......

    I mean, do we even know that this @Leon character actually exists. They might be one of these AI / GP3 (or whatever it is) he/she/it is always talking about.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    It’s over for Morrison.

    Labour minority government.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dixiedean said:

    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    edited May 2022
    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    A spat now developing between Sue Grays spokesperson and no 10 over who called their meeting

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,214
    nico679 said:

    A spat now developing between Sue Grays spokesperson and no 10 over who called their meeting

    Get Case to investigate this one. No reports to be published until that has been resolved.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,608
    Pagan2 said:

    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Carnyx said:

    AIUI, because it's a formal statement in a formal situation; and also a basic rule of parliamentary procedure. But the contrast was very apparent in my thoughts, if only implicitly.
    A bit like lying in a court room? A bit like perjury?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
    What do you mean? I assumed we were talking about forming a government out of the 151 elected MPs.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Yes sadly it appears the Russians are starting to win now, ,zelensky making noises about hell in donbass was a sign,,,our media gone relatively quiet too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    dixiedean said:

    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.

    Labor currently lead in 76 seats, giving a majority of 1. However in some of those WA seats their lead over the Coalition is narrowing
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Get Case to investigate this one. No reports to be published until that has been resolved.
    Actually you are spot on with sort of thing that now happens. Really have sense Gray is still too critical of senior leadership team incl Big Dog published today, so it needs to be delayed and hollowed out much more than this.

    I wouldn’t expect publishing this week at all if betting on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Putin is throwing everything at at least gaining the Donbas for Russia, so no surprise
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    What do you mean? I assumed we were talking about forming a government out of the 151 elected MPs.
    Greens were supposed to be good for Lab in 2nd pref, but do we know where Indy stand if it’s coalition seats?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    HYUFD said:

    Labor currently lead in 76 seats, giving a majority of 1. However in some of those WA seats their lead over the Coalition is narrowing
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
    Yeah. Labor gaining only 3 in WA now. But all lead by 10%. One government loss to Indy too by smaller margin. Still small numbers.
    Looks like Albanese is PM.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280

    It’s over for Morrison.

    Labour minority government.

    What will the upside down tories do now? Go for that one that looks like he has radiation poisoning?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Warringah is an upper middle class wealthy part of the Sydney urban area Tony Abbott as Coalition candidate already lost to the Independents in 2019, so no surprise an anti trans candidate went down badly there.

    A poor pick for the seat, that campaign might work in blue collar areas not in areas full of wealthy graduates
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why does it even need to exist? The MPs could have shit offices above a Ladbrokes in their constiuencies, debate on Zoom and vote on an app. I don't think we'd be conspicuously less well governed if that were the arrangement,
    they would miss the 24 subsidised bars and restaurants, they might even have to buy their own food out of their own pockets.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Or the vote just dropped because the Coalition are crap and the usual infighting over why is underway.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Gaurdian?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    malcolmg said:

    they would miss the 24 subsidised bars and restaurants, they might even have to buy their own food out of their own pockets.
    They also wouldnt get to buy second homes by dipping in the pockets of those that cant buy a first home
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,492

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    At heavy cost though:

    Even more, another Stugna-P ATGM strike also by the 80th Air Assault Brigade against a Russian AFV.

    The Brigade claims destroying 3 Russian MBTs and 3 IFVs by their Anti-tank units in the past 24 hours.


    https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1527913961718435848?cxt=HHwWkMCy-eTpnrQqAAAA

    The key known unknown continues to be how soon the newly mobilised Ukrainian forces become available.

    Might be days, might be weeks, might be longer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Dura_Ace said:

    What will the upside down tories do now? Go for that one that looks like he has radiation poisoning?
    Is that a reference to the atom bomb tests?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    GaryL said:

    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Yeah. Labor gaining only 3 in WA now. But all lead by 10%. One government loss to Indy too by smaller margin. Still small numbers.
    Looks like Albanese is PM.
    One Tasmania Labor held seat now Coalition ahead too, I agree Albanese is PM but I think in the end he will just fall short of a majority though could still go either way.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280
    GaryL said:

    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing would be my guess. Who the fuck is going to demine the Odessa approaches while there are Granits flying about and Bayraktars lighting up everything in sight?
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Pagan2 said:

    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,281

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,608
    Pagan2 said:

    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Greens were supposed to be good for Lab in 2nd pref, but do we know where Indy stand if it’s coalition seats?
    In seats the ALP looks set to gain, they either:
    1. held their own vote while the Coalition's fell AND they picked up more second votes (e.g. from the Greens or independents); or
    2. they improved their vote while the Coalition's fell BUT they picked up a smaller percentage of second votes.

    This makes sense. There were obviously a group of people who had moved away from the coalition who, depending on seat, either more often vote ALP first preference or second preference.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Not much - Russians now focusing everything in a very narrow area. Gains are also a matter of miles - planned retreats and destruction of bridges - so classic defence in depth strategy by the Ukrainians
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    A bit like lying in a court room? A bit like perjury?
    Well, quite. Though somehow different from the rest of us even so.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    GaryL said:

    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing, unless you can persuade President Biden to send in the US Navy as convoy escorts and risk ww3. It is not enough to persuade Putin to allow freighters to dock because the seas are heavily mined and Ukraine has no minesweepers, aiui.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
    I didnt say no spending on any of those things I said do the essentials fully then spend whats left on our next choices. I would imaging debt servicing, embassies come next then if money is left over transport infrastructure.

    Your view presupposes the essentials being fully funded will cost us everything we bring in from taxation. If that is truly the case then yes we need to trim what the state does quite drastically

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Warringah is an upper middle class wealthy part of the Sydney urban area Tony Abbott as Coalition candidate already lost to the Independents in 2019, so no surprise an anti trans candidate went down badly there.

    A poor pick for the seat, that campaign might work in blue collar areas not in areas full of wealthy graduates
    8.4% swing to Labor on Primary in WA.
    Majority back on.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Phillips OBrien was tweeting yesterday that actually there's no real much sign of a breakthrough from RU. Gained a bit around Popasna, but questions whether they can hold it.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1527543664528048128
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    GaryL said:

    Yes sadly it appears the Russians are starting to win now, ,zelensky making noises about hell in donbass was a sign,,,our media gone relatively quiet too
    I'm not convinced. We will see in next couple of weeks. Loss rates for RU seem high by all accounts, they will run out of troops prepared to die pointlessly for Putin at some point this summer.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280

    Nothing, unless you can persuade President Biden to send in the US Navy as convoy escorts and risk ww3. It is not enough to persuade Putin to allow freighters to dock because the seas are heavily mined and Ukraine has no minesweepers, aiui.
    Biden is obviously fine tuning the support for Ukraine. Giving them just enough to keep them fighting and the Russians bleeding but not enough to allow them to win so VVP gets butthurt and throws the Risk board at the wall.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    GaryL said:

    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    Dura_Ace said:

    Biden is obviously fine tuning the support for Ukraine. Giving them just enough to keep them fighting and the Russians bleeding but not enough to allow them to win so VVP gets butthurt and throws the Risk board at the wall.
    Thank the gods it is him and not Trump making these calls.

    Trump would either have allowed Vlad to take the whole lot without lifting a finger, or seen something on Fox News that irritated him and started asking how to turn the launch code key.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,492
    GaryL said:

    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

    I believe that Russian has now claimed to have shot down about 400% of the Ukrainian air force.

    Now throughout history claims of air losses have always been higher than reality but I wouldn't put much trust in anything Russia claimed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Queensland’s relative conservatism is explained in this superb mappy breakdown here:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/federal-election-map-lying/101076016
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Musk’s takeover of Twitter, has inadvertently turned Tesla into a much more politicised company. It’s no surprise he needs to beef up the legal team there.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Yep. Highly litigious and a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913

    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Sounds to me like he's been watching a bit too much Better Call Saul and has spectacularly misread it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    HYUFD said:

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
    You mean the Yorkshire?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    dixiedean said:

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    You should try the Northern Territory. It’s like pre Civil War Louisiana
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Pagan2 said:

    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
    Let me turn the question around somewhat.

    1) If you believe the russians were going to go full nuclear would you strike first

    2) What percentage of certainty of them going full nuclear would you need to trigger a premptive strike assuming the answer to 1) is yes

    3) If the answer to one is no then really why bother having the damn things as they are now merely a revenge weapon after your country is a nuclear desert
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,608
    Pagan2 said:

    I didnt say no spending on any of those things I said do the essentials fully then spend whats left on our next choices. I would imaging debt servicing, embassies come next then if money is left over transport infrastructure.

    Your view presupposes the essentials being fully funded will cost us everything we bring in from taxation. If that is truly the case then yes we need to trim what the state does quite drastically

    You refuse to even engage with my answer because it is, you say, a “pipe dream”, but your proposal, which includes possibly defaulting on our debt, that is clearly way outside the Overton window, does count…?

    If you want to discuss these topics, you’ve got to offer a modicum of coherence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    You mean the Yorkshire?
    Yorkshire is the Texas of the UK too
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    GaryL said:

    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

    Good for them and their propoganda, except that there are no reports of explosions in Zhytomyr Region.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Carnyx said:

    Well, quite. Though somehow different from the rest of us even so.
    It strikes me Parliament try’s a lot to be like a court room. I suspect not respecting norms like perjury the whole thing doesn’t work.

    I know a lot of Boris fans on here will disagree with me, but it’s very much like Boris putting himself before his party in disrespecting such norms, which a lot of former leaders and hopefully future leaders just won’t do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    Leon said:

    You should try the Northern Territory. It’s like pre Civil War Louisiana
    Labor has won the Northern Territory tonight, it has the highest aborigine vote in Australia. Queensland however has again voted for the Coalition against the trend overall in Australia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,281

    @RochdalePioneers has said all along Beergate was a poor judgement call by the police, and despite what the Met have adjudicated, Johnson attended parties and as such misled the House.

    RP has been straight down the fairway consistent.
    Oh really?

    My *impression* of what he had been saying is that the police investigated it and therefore there was no reason to reopen the case. That was clearly rubbish after it turned out the police had not had the full information. As I recall, he consistently said that the full information was irrelevant. For reasons.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,956
    edited May 2022

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    ALBA and the Family Party didn't score very well in the Scottish local elections.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    You refuse to even engage with my answer because it is, you say, a “pipe dream”, but your proposal, which includes possibly defaulting on our debt, that is clearly way outside the Overton window, does count…?

    If you want to discuss these topics, you’ve got to offer a modicum of coherence.
    As I said I expect the essentials not to cost everything we take in tax. If they would then we are already in an unsustainable position and we may as well give up on having good services that count and help people
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585

    Not much - Russians now focusing everything in a very narrow area. Gains are also a matter of miles - planned retreats and destruction of bridges - so classic defence in depth strategy by the Ukrainians
    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Pagan2 said:

    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
    Even in the ridiculously unlikely scenario of the West conducting a nuclear first strike, it would not be on Moscow.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    Heathener said:

    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.

    Isn't there a Select Committee inquiry on hold till after Gray?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    New thread.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    This thread has admitted fibbing in the HoC.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
    Dunno. Contrast with NSW. Which has had a right of centre State government for some years. Doesn't automatically correlate. Doesn't in Canada either. Don't know about Oz.
    But in Canada, certainly, the Parties aren't the same things locally as Federally.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    Even in the ridiculously unlikely scenario of the West conducting a nuclear first strike, it would not be on Moscow.
    Well probably not....I just have a different view on mad I guess. To me its better that other nuclear powers think we will do a first strike if we believe they are likely to launch. I would rather deter them from launching in the first place than say if you do launch we will fuck you up
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,492

    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
    IIRC Brisbane's proportion of the Queensland population is significantly less than Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth are of their state's population.

    Although why 'outer' Queensland is relatively more attractive than 'outer' NSW or 'outer' Vic I don't know.

    I imagine that 'outer' WA and 'outer' SA have inhospitable climates and terrain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585
    HYUFD said:

    Labor has won the Northern Territory tonight, it has the highest aborigine vote in Australia. Queensland however has again voted for the Coalition against the trend overall in Australia
    I meant more in the *interesting attitudes* you can hear, rather than the voting complexion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Dunno. Contrast with NSW. Which has had a right of centre State government for some years. Doesn't automatically correlate. Doesn't in Canada either. Don't know about Oz.
    But in Canada, certainly, the Parties aren't the same things locally as Federally.
    Of the 3 largest states by population in Australia, NSW is the swing region in Australia Federally, leans Coalition at state level.

    Queensland leans Coalition Federally, less so at state level. Victoria is Labor Federally and at state level
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,971
    Heathener said:

    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.

    Boris won't go of his own volition; that much is clear. And the Tory MPs are now in full-on Boris worship - hailing him as an invincible political superman. Difficult to see what could do for Boris under these circumstances.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,281
    Sandpit said:

    Musk’s takeover of Twitter, has inadvertently turned Tesla into a much more politicised company. It’s no surprise he needs to beef up the legal team there.
    It'll be interesting to see how Tesla shareholders' money can be spent on personal legal quests by Musk. I can imagine if the perceived slight is against Tesla, that'd be fine. If it's against Musk himself, how much can he claim that a slight against him affects Tesla enough for him to use Tesla's lawyers?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280
    Heathener said:

    Yep. Highly litigious and a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
    Basically a Bond villain at this point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2022

    It'll be interesting to see how Tesla shareholders' money can be spent on personal legal quests by Musk. I can imagine if the perceived slight is against Tesla, that'd be fine. If it's against Musk himself, how much can he claim that a slight against him affects Tesla enough for him to use Tesla's lawyers?
    Tesla itself, has been in litigation in many states for many years over dealerships.

    Most States have a law that says new cars can *only* be sold by independent franchised dealers, and not by manufacturers directly.

    Tesla has been trying to overturn this for a decade, since they were a small upstart company - but they’re now trying to do this as by far the biggest car company (by market valuation, obviously!) in the world!

    Obviously, litigation from Musk himself must be funded by Musk. Although maybe if his company has a bunch of hot-shot wankers lawyers on staff, they’d be amenable to some private work too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkshire is the Texas of the UK too
    Oofta!
This discussion has been closed.