Reflecting on the economy, I think the Tories are screwed at the next election.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that we are heading for an inflation-induced recession. Inflation will remain very high this year and BoE rates are expected to more than double to over 2% by year-end. Central banks will have no choice but to keep hiking rates as inflation feeds into pay negotiations given we have full employment.
That leaves us in recession later this year or 2023. With Boris no longer popular, I struggle to see how the Tories recover from this before May 2024.
Au contraire. We'll be in a recession. Sure. But this is great news for the Tories. "Britain is Tanking. Don't Let Labour Ruin It!" Or some such. Election win nailed on. The danger is that we pull out of it in reasonable time. And folk reflect that "Things can only get Better." It is only optimism that produces Labour governments.
Wasn't optimism that won it for Wilson in February 1974, it was high inflation, power shortages and strikes under Heath.
I don't wish to cause an excitement overload but on Sunday I shall be doing the morning thread on electoral reform and the afternoon thread on Scottish independence.
I’ll be driving back to London on Sunday, I’ll miss it! 😭
Wrong turn off the M25 and end up in Brighton?
No - I’ll miss TSE exciting new thread headers. I only came up North for one weekend intentionally I ran out of clean knickers days ago and have been going without.
I won’t have time for detours just wanting to hug my partner again!
No knickers saves time. You couldn't advise on public sector efficiency while you're at it?
Well I did on the last thread. As Farooq said, I’m as shameless as Boris.
Where is Farooq? I haven’t bullied him off PB 😕
I suppose it's possible I could get bullied off here, but it would need to be someone whose opinion I actually respected.
Well I respect you as being the sites most consistent poster, Farooq.
Consistently angry at something 🧌 GRRR! GRRR! 🤭
You're doing me an injustice. I'm consistently angry at everything.
Then you should focus your energies on one thing at a time then 🙄
Reflecting on the economy, I think the Tories are screwed at the next election.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that we are heading for an inflation-induced recession. Inflation will remain very high this year and BoE rates are expected to more than double to over 2% by year-end. Central banks will have no choice but to keep hiking rates as inflation feeds into pay negotiations given we have full employment.
That leaves us in recession later this year or 2023. With Boris no longer popular, I struggle to see how the Tories recover from this before May 2024.
Au contraire. We'll be in a recession. Sure. But this is great news for the Tories. "Britain is Tanking. Don't Let Labour Ruin It!" Or some such. Election win nailed on. The danger is that we pull out of it in reasonable time. And folk reflect that "Things can only get Better." It is only optimism that produces Labour governments.
Wasn't optimism that won it for Wilson in February 1974, it was high inflation, power shortages and strikes under Heath.
I would argue it was. The 1970 election was a surprise to most. In 1974, as with most of the derided seventies, living standards were booming for ordinary folk. Things could only get better under 'arold. They had from 64 to 70.
Lots of chatter coming from the US that they're about to tell the EU to make the "deal that's available" on NI and stop bitching about it because they don't see the UK position moving at all and now there's a potential threat to western unity and violence breaking out in NI.
I get the feeling that within a few weeks we'll get a lot of behind the scenes movement and around September a new agreement will be revealed that the DUP still aren't on board with but will satisfy most concerns and take the heat out of it all.
My guess is that the agreement will be something like 70-80% of what the UK wants but fall down on key areas like ECJ jurisdiction because NI companies will need the ECJ as a final court of arbitration participate in the single market.
Sounds like could be subtantially correct.
Which is NOT same as giving Boris a total "Get-Out-of-Your-Own-Paddy-Wagon" card.
Just that quite a few in US government, including Biden, Pelosi, Schumer AND McConnell - heck, even McCarthy for what it's worth- are way morethan ready. to bang EU as well as UK heads together on Northern Ireland, for reasons you say.
Heck, they don't even have to worry overmuch about IRISH headbangers, in that most will be on-board with a US-brokered solution, either publically or covetly, again as you suggest.
Don't know about %s but of course will take a while for numbers shake out.
No, it's not. I think the Americans are just being realistic on the subject. I'm told someone said it's like America leaving NAFTA/USMCA but putting Alaska within Canadian jurisdiction to the Americans. Supposedly a very effective analogy because the US isn't in favour of Irish reunification publicly or otherwise.
As I said, I get the feeling the summer is going to be very important for this issue and I also get an overwhelming sense that whatever comes from the talks will end up being acceptable to both sides but the EU will move a lot more than they would have wanted to. Western unity is important and the potential for the UK to say "we are reconsidering our ongoing security commitment to continental Europe" is much higher than most realise.
There's supposed to be a lot of exasperation in Westminster that the EU is, on the one hand, asking for US and UK money ($28bn from the US so far and $3bn from the UK) to fund European defence in Ukraine but on the other creating a bunch of issues around NI and customs it doesn't need to. I could now see the UK pull out of all defence and intelligence cooperation with the EU and instead only go via NATO and bilateral treaties. I expect it's this potential flashpoint that has forced the US to come and force a solution.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
Here’s a question. When an election looks too close to call, is the value bet to defy the final polls is on the one with most momentum throughout the campaign? Which makes it a government win here?
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
Don't be fooled by ftse 100, it's being propped up by its energy stocks and drug stock's, ftse 250 well down and ftse 100 likely to follow
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
There will be a temporary downturn, sure. But real interest rates which are what counts are falling much faster than nominal interest rates are rising.
I don't wish to cause an excitement overload but on Sunday I shall be doing the morning thread on electoral reform and the afternoon thread on Scottish independence.
I’ll be driving back to London on Sunday, I’ll miss it! 😭
Wrong turn off the M25 and end up in Brighton?
No - I’ll miss TSE exciting new thread headers. I only came up North for one weekend intentionally I ran out of clean knickers days ago and have been going without.
I won’t have time for detours just wanting to hug my partner again!
No knickers saves time. You couldn't advise on public sector efficiency while you're at it?
Well I did on the last thread. As Farooq said, I’m as shameless as Boris.
Where is Farooq? I haven’t bullied him off PB 😕
I suppose it's possible I could get bullied off here, but it would need to be someone whose opinion I actually respected.
Well I respect you as being the sites most consistent poster, Farooq.
Consistently angry at something 🧌 GRRR! GRRR! 🤭
You're doing me an injustice. I'm consistently angry at everything.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
Don't be fooled by ftse 100, it's being propped up by its energy stocks and drug stock's, ftse 250 well down and ftse 100 likely to follow
Isn’t FTSE so full of foreign companies anyway, so not to represent anything particular about Uk?
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
Because sterling is down ~10% against USD and much of the FTSE100 is international.
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
Really if anyone would be aware of the unfairness of life and the natural order of underlings facing the consequences whilst the powerful and connect escape censure it should be those who work at No. 10 Downing Street.
Next up, poorly armed peasants angry that they are the ones made to storm the castle walls rather than the Lord.
Here’s a question. When an election looks too close to call, is the value bet to defy the final polls is on the one with most momentum throughout the campaign? Which makes it a government win here?
Perhaps. Although the polls in Australia missed spectacularly last time. So you need to dig whether they've adjusted their methodology? Clue. They will have. Have they gone too far? Or not enough? That's the trick. I'm staying.out. Either result seems plausible. Therefore I will be neither surprised nor impecunious.
I don't wish to cause an excitement overload but on Sunday I shall be doing the morning thread on electoral reform and the afternoon thread on Scottish independence.
I’ll be driving back to London on Sunday, I’ll miss it! 😭
Wrong turn off the M25 and end up in Brighton?
No - I’ll miss TSE exciting new thread headers. I only came up North for one weekend intentionally I ran out of clean knickers days ago and have been going without.
I won’t have time for detours just wanting to hug my partner again!
No knickers saves time. You couldn't advise on public sector efficiency while you're at it?
Well I did on the last thread. As Farooq said, I’m as shameless as Boris.
Where is Farooq? I haven’t bullied him off PB 😕
I suppose it's possible I could get bullied off here, but it would need to be someone whose opinion I actually respected.
Well I respect you as being the sites most consistent poster, Farooq.
Consistently angry at something 🧌 GRRR! GRRR! 🤭
You're doing me an injustice. I'm consistently angry at everything.
Sounds exhausting.
It is, and I'm pretty angry at myself for letting it get to this point
Give us an example of something going well, that gives you joy when you think it, your mind in its happy place
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
True, but it's increasingly common for UK investors to hold global portfolios where US tech stocks are the biggest names.
I wouldn't necessarily predict a fall in the value of the asset rich's assets, but neither do I expect the rise in asset valuations to keep pace with inflation.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
There will be a temporary downturn, sure. But real interest rates which are what counts are falling much faster than nominal interest rates are rising.
Yes all roads lead to inflation I think Then we have to hope we don't become venezuela
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
Though the FTSE has been a bit volatile, it hasn't declined.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
Don't be fooled by ftse 100, it's being propped up by its energy stocks and drug stock's, ftse 250 well down and ftse 100 likely to follow
Isn’t FTSE so full of foreign companies anyway, so not to represent anything particular about Uk?
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Nah quantitative tightening is the order of the day, it's already started with £30bn of government bonds maturing not being reinvested. The US is about to follow suit.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
There will be a temporary downturn, sure. But real interest rates which are what counts are falling much faster than nominal interest rates are rising.
Yes all roads lead to inflation I think Then we have to hope we don't become venezuela
World's largest oil reserves would be a mighty happy outcome.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Not sure. US equities down almost 20% this year.
There will be a temporary downturn, sure. But real interest rates which are what counts are falling much faster than nominal interest rates are rising.
Long-dated real interest rates have risen substantially this year. That is the basis of investment decisions, not just looking at the latest inflation print versus BoE base rates.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Is that common? It seems to be frequently asserted but rarely evidenced.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
Working overtime to suck up (and to) well-healed MAGA-maniacs, to finance his bit to be Head Twit, which apparently he can NOT finance himself due to . . . err . . . market conditions?
EDIT - which yours truly believes is WAY more about influence peddling than business planning. Or rather, making important friends and influencing influential people (or those soon to be) IS the business plan.
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
Really if anyone would be aware of the unfairness of life and the natural order of underlings facing the consequences whilst the powerful and connect escape censure it should be those who work at No. 10 Downing Street.
Next up, poorly armed peasants angry that they are the ones made to storm the castle walls rather than the Lord.
If Boris actually owned the culture of disrespecting lockdown rules that was going on, he would be gone. Other Tory politicians and leaders, past and present, would have owned it and resigned. It will never go away, that’s how politics works - so the only alternative from avoiding the wall of anger for, as Z put it “cheating the voters” was to run from it, inquiries, investigations, can kicking, whitewashing - essentially all to avoid admitting being responsible for the culture that went on.
Boris may still be there another 12 months, because on this occasion the Tory Party have messed up being ruthless when they need to. But Partygate never goes away now. It just moves into a different phase. A more angry and bitter phase.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Nah quantitative tightening is the order of the day, it's already started with £30bn of government bonds maturing not being reinvested. The US is about to follow suit.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
When the credit markets break the fed will have no choice but to reverse policy Otherwise peoples pensions go up on smoke Remember we live in a democracy the pressure to print money will be immense
I don't wish to cause an excitement overload but on Sunday I shall be doing the morning thread on electoral reform and the afternoon thread on Scottish independence.
I’ll be driving back to London on Sunday, I’ll miss it! 😭
Wrong turn off the M25 and end up in Brighton?
No - I’ll miss TSE exciting new thread headers. I only came up North for one weekend intentionally I ran out of clean knickers days ago and have been going without.
I won’t have time for detours just wanting to hug my partner again!
No knickers saves time. You couldn't advise on public sector efficiency while you're at it?
Well I did on the last thread. As Farooq said, I’m as shameless as Boris.
Where is Farooq? I haven’t bullied him off PB 😕
I suppose it's possible I could get bullied off here, but it would need to be someone whose opinion I actually respected.
Well I respect you as being the sites most consistent poster, Farooq.
Consistently angry at something 🧌 GRRR! GRRR! 🤭
You're doing me an injustice. I'm consistently angry at everything.
Sounds exhausting.
It is, and I'm pretty angry at myself for letting it get to this point
Give us an example of something going well, that gives you joy when you think it, your mind in its happy place
My marriage is happy. I have an extensive range of quality whiskies in my cabinet. I'm pretty good at my job and it's interesting to me. I've found a really good pair of running trainers that fit and cushion exactly as I'd want.
The variation between scotch malt flavours is crazy, from something smooth like a 20yr old Old Pulteney - by far my favourite - to something more Smokey, and then on to far too Smokey for my taste. What do you say is your “comfort blanket” whiskey, to round off the perfect day?
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Is that common? It seems to be frequently asserted but rarely evidenced.
Was thinking exactly that as I read it. Perhaps wishful thinking on Andy’s part? That said, the Aussie poll looks super-tight. I instinctively make the government a marginal favourite but I know sod all about Australian politics!
Lots of chatter coming from the US that they're about to tell the EU to make the "deal that's available" on NI and stop bitching about it because they don't see the UK position moving at all and now there's a potential threat to western unity and violence breaking out in NI.
I get the feeling that within a few weeks we'll get a lot of behind the scenes movement and around September a new agreement will be revealed that the DUP still aren't on board with but will satisfy most concerns and take the heat out of it all.
My guess is that the agreement will be something like 70-80% of what the UK wants but fall down on key areas like ECJ jurisdiction because NI companies will need the ECJ as a final court of arbitration participate in the single market.
Sounds like could be subtantially correct.
Which is NOT same as giving Boris a total "Get-Out-of-Your-Own-Paddy-Wagon" card.
Just that quite a few in US government, including Biden, Pelosi, Schumer AND McConnell - heck, even McCarthy for what it's worth- are way morethan ready. to bang EU as well as UK heads together on Northern Ireland, for reasons you say.
Heck, they don't even have to worry overmuch about IRISH headbangers, in that most will be on-board with a US-brokered solution, either publically or covetly, again as you suggest.
Don't know about %s but of course will take a while for numbers shake out.
No, it's not. I think the Americans are just being realistic on the subject. I'm told someone said it's like America leaving NAFTA/USMCA but putting Alaska within Canadian jurisdiction to the Americans. Supposedly a very effective analogy because the US isn't in favour of Irish reunification publicly or otherwise.
As I said, I get the feeling the summer is going to be very important for this issue and I also get an overwhelming sense that whatever comes from the talks will end up being acceptable to both sides but the EU will move a lot more than they would have wanted to. Western unity is important and the potential for the UK to say "we are reconsidering our ongoing security commitment to continental Europe" is much higher than most realise.
There's supposed to be a lot of exasperation in Westminster that the EU is, on the one hand, asking for US and UK money ($28bn from the US so far and $3bn from the UK) to fund European defence in Ukraine but on the other creating a bunch of issues around NI and customs it doesn't need to. I could now see the UK pull out of all defence and intelligence cooperation with the EU and instead only go via NATO and bilateral treaties. I expect it's this potential flashpoint that has forced the US to come and force a solution.
"No, it's not." WHAT's not? NOT to me, what "it" is it that you are referrring? Or not?
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
Really if anyone would be aware of the unfairness of life and the natural order of underlings facing the consequences whilst the powerful and connect escape censure it should be those who work at No. 10 Downing Street.
Next up, poorly armed peasants angry that they are the ones made to storm the castle walls rather than the Lord.
The peasants storming the castle didn't have iphones with a camera.
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
Really if anyone would be aware of the unfairness of life and the natural order of underlings facing the consequences whilst the powerful and connect escape censure it should be those who work at No. 10 Downing Street.
Next up, poorly armed peasants angry that they are the ones made to storm the castle walls rather than the Lord.
The peasants storming the castle didn't have iphones with a camera.
What an excellent post. I didn’t think of that one.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Is that common? It seems to be frequently asserted but rarely evidenced.
Was thinking exactly that as I read it. Perhaps wishful thinking on Andy’s part? That said, the Aussie poll looks super-tight. I instinctively make the government a marginal favourite but I know sod all about Australian politics!
Its much like ours. Insane house prices. And a cossetted older generation continually fluffed by a charlatan.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Isn't this just a UK phenomenon? The USA, Canada and France all have centre-left majorities, and few other countries have electoral systems where that matters.
Western unity is important and the potential for the UK to say "we are reconsidering our ongoing security commitment to continental Europe" is much higher than most realise.
No it isn't. The security commitment is delivered through NATO and tories love NATO for some reason.
The UK has already withdrawn from all other major European defence structures. EUMS, etc.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Is that common? It seems to be frequently asserted but rarely evidenced.
Was thinking exactly that as I read it. Perhaps wishful thinking on Andy’s part? That said, the Aussie poll looks super-tight. I instinctively make the government a marginal favourite but I know sod all about Australian politics!
As you know I have been studying it closely and reporting here on it for months.
My esteemed opinion now is, it’s so close it all depends on number of crocs sitting on their vote this year, and how many Koalas can be bothered to come out their tree and vote the two hours they will actually be awake for. Koalas voting was described as extremely slow all day last time, whilst there are ongoing issues billabong building as the crocs don’t want to live in the green belt. Relations with crocs has gone down hill due to refusal of movie productions to cast crocodiles in the role of crocodiles.
Fun fact. Australian politics leads the world for using specially trained spiders to spin stories. specially trained fruit bats are also employed by political parties to Bat accusations back.
The only particular knowledge I have about Australian politics is that a lot of voters seem to think their government controls interest rates, particularly that the Coalition guarantees low rates, and the last time there was a rate rise during the campaign, the Coalition was thrown out.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Isn't this just a UK phenomenon? The USA, Canada and France all have centre-left majorities, and few other countries have electoral systems where that matters.
All the English speaking countries have the same basic electoral system, except New Zealand. The AV system in Australia wouldn't have any effect on the problem of a party piling up unneeded votes in safe seats: that can happen just as much in Australia as in the UK. Maybe that's why they're already saying Labor needs to be slightly ahead in the popular vote in order to win a majority compared to the Liberals/Coalition.
Elon Musk seems to be very serious about disrupting US politics. He's now going after members of the Clinton campaign team which includes the current head of the SEC.
@elonmusk Sussmann himself admitted billing Clinton Campaign to pay for him to present Russia hoax to FBI! This is not even questioned by the defense.
Btw, I donated to & voted for Hillary, so am doubly pissed off about those funds being used for lying.
Working overtime to suck up (and to) well-healed MAGA-maniacs, to finance his bit to be Head Twit, which apparently he can NOT finance himself due to . . . err . . . market conditions?
EDIT - which yours truly believes is WAY more about influence peddling than business planning. Or rather, making important friends and influencing influential people (or those soon to be) IS the business plan.
I'm surprisingly confident that Musk will go after vested interests on both sides of the political divide in the US. When he says he dislikes the extremes on both sides I tend to believe him.
On the same final Newspoll error as 2019 it would be 50% 50% tomorrow, matching the final preferred PM scores of Morrison 42% Albanese 42%
I wonder whether Labor could be doing the same thing that other centre-left parties are doing in the West, in piling up large majorities in their safe seats while not necessarily winning the marginals.
Isn't this just a UK phenomenon? The USA, Canada and France all have centre-left majorities, and few other countries have electoral systems where that matters.
All the English speaking countries have the same basic electoral system, except New Zealand. The AV system in Australia wouldn't have any effect on the problem of a party piling up unneeded votes in safe seats: that can happen just as much in Australia as in the UK. Maybe that's why they're already saying Labor needs to be slightly ahead in the popular vote in order to win a majority compared to the Liberals/Coalition.
Or Ireland or South Africa. But the point is, I think this is exclusively an English Labour Party problem. It's not something that particularly afflicts other countries - American Democrats and Canadian Liberals seem to do fine in marginals.
What look is Truss aiming for today then? 1 part Domestic Godess to 2 parts newsreader?
Perhaps she is looking so tired this week because she is carrying the ring of power around her neck? Workloads been pretty mordor of late - you could almost suspect her boss is trying to Minas Tariff her?
I'm getting a kinda Anne of Cleves vibe from that, or do I mean Ann Boleyn?
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
Up to now Boris Johnson has had an easy ride on Partygate, whilst he’s kicked a can saying “wait for this” “wait for that” it’s always been in mind, always still possible he gets his just deserts dispelling the “one rule for us, one rule for them” outrage always bubbling underneath.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
This 'aint over...
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston @Peston In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
The question is whether these junior officials are upset enough to go to the press, especially with photos, or even the Select Committee.
Most of them, within No.10, are likely political appointees anyway. SpAds rather than permanent CS, and would lose their jobs with a change of PM. Way more likely that the powers that be find a way of giving them a bonus that covers the fines.
"The police must investigate No. 10 parties!" - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined. "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!" - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them. "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"
Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?
Then add in Beergate: "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!" - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied. "Why does it matter? The police investigated?" - More evidence comes out. "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!" - The investigation is reopened. "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"
I still maintain that many of these politicians must be secretly hoping that the place will ultimately burn down. They'd then be armed with an excuse for spending money on a shiny, modern replacement.
I still maintain that many of these politicians must be secretly hoping that the place will ultimately burn down. They'd then be armed with an excuse for spending money on a shiny, modern replacement.
Since it would probably be cheaper to burn it down and start again, that’s not necessarily a stick to beat them with.
The irony of Leadsom’s remarks, of which I ahve no doubt she is unaware, is that the Notre Dame fire was caused by the repairs that were being carried out!
As I’ve said before, I’ve been there, as - it seems - have many PB-ers. It’s great that we can talk about it on here without shame or embarrassment. Sharing is part of curing. And the other parts of curing are the usual: exercise, good healthy food, fresh air, try and socialise if you can, but don’t curse yourself if you can’t, don’t refuse the happy pills if it gets that bad
Alcohol is a puzzler. All the medical advice says Don’t do it, booze makes it worse, it’s a depressant. And yet it numbs the pain, doesn’t it? And that is really quite helpful, at times. Each to their own
Most of all remember that depression is like bad weather. There isn’t THAT much you can do, but shelter and endure, but bad weather ALWAYS passes. Hunker down and sit it out
"It's a depressant" is just wrong, though. It's technically true, but it's physiological rather than psychological processes it depresses. I have been very seriously depressive all my life; I was entirely teetotal 45 - 60 in the hope that would improve things. I had my worst ever episode of depression in early 2021 and thought Fuck it, let's drink. I now find that about a bottle of wine a night is an invaluable weapon in the War On Depression. Not recommending it to anyone else but it works for me.
My understanding. And IANAE, but was told by one who is, is that it causes anxiety spikes. Which can, but doesn't always, lead to depression. As such, it is indirect. But. As I say I can't say that for sure.
Was also told coffee is the same. I cut down to four a day. My anxiety tumbled.
Yes, that sounds right to me, and it is how alcoholics get into a downward spiral. Anxiety leads to drinking, leads to more drinking etc.
Cutting out caffiene helps too, and so does shutting down electronics.
And yet teetotallers are more miserable than anyone, and the intake of coffee apparently prolongs life - and much else
This physical, social and emotional benefits of “a few glasses with friends” are almost immeasurable. You relax, you laugh, you bond
The ideal is a moderate amount of alcohol taken with friends or over a pleasant meal, the two extremes - neat vodka on your own at 7am or No Booze At All - are probably equally bad
That’s the old joke: vegetarians and teetotallers don’t actually live longer - it just seems that way
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
I usually consider myself pretty anti-woke, but when I read this kind of shit it puts me right into the opposite camp. If you're prepared to dismantle democracy over trans-bathrooms, then maybe it's not woke that's the problem.
"The police must investigate No. 10 parties!" - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined. "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!" - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them. "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"
Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?
Then add in Beergate: "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!" - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied. "Why does it matter? The police investigated?" - More evidence comes out. "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!" - The investigation is reopened. "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"
etc, etc.
Anyone in particular or is this an impressionistic sweep over any number of posters? In any case, wasn't it Boris, inter alia, who wanted the police investigation to kick the Gray report down the road?
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
My big issue with that is that for many in the US, 'wokeness' is a synonym for fundamental, hard-won rights. The totalitarian ideology is the one that is denying abortions to women; whose ringleaders screech about removing other rights for their own personal benefit.
I'm also bemused by the idea that Europe is less 'woke' than the USA. I'd urge any anti-woke American wanting to come to our idyllic woke-free paradise to stay where they are and pollute their own cesspool.
As I’ve said before, I’ve been there, as - it seems - have many PB-ers. It’s great that we can talk about it on here without shame or embarrassment. Sharing is part of curing. And the other parts of curing are the usual: exercise, good healthy food, fresh air, try and socialise if you can, but don’t curse yourself if you can’t, don’t refuse the happy pills if it gets that bad
Alcohol is a puzzler. All the medical advice says Don’t do it, booze makes it worse, it’s a depressant. And yet it numbs the pain, doesn’t it? And that is really quite helpful, at times. Each to their own
Most of all remember that depression is like bad weather. There isn’t THAT much you can do, but shelter and endure, but bad weather ALWAYS passes. Hunker down and sit it out
"It's a depressant" is just wrong, though. It's technically true, but it's physiological rather than psychological processes it depresses. I have been very seriously depressive all my life; I was entirely teetotal 45 - 60 in the hope that would improve things. I had my worst ever episode of depression in early 2021 and thought Fuck it, let's drink. I now find that about a bottle of wine a night is an invaluable weapon in the War On Depression. Not recommending it to anyone else but it works for me.
My understanding. And IANAE, but was told by one who is, is that it causes anxiety spikes. Which can, but doesn't always, lead to depression. As such, it is indirect. But. As I say I can't say that for sure.
Was also told coffee is the same. I cut down to four a day. My anxiety tumbled.
Yes, that sounds right to me, and it is how alcoholics get into a downward spiral. Anxiety leads to drinking, leads to more drinking etc.
Cutting out caffiene helps too, and so does shutting down electronics.
And yet teetotallers are more miserable than anyone, and the intake of coffee apparently prolongs life - and much else
This physical, social and emotional benefits of “a few glasses with friends” are almost immeasurable. You relax, you laugh, you bond
The ideal is a moderate amount of alcohol taken with friends or over a pleasant meal, the two extremes - neat vodka on your own at 7am or No Booze At All - are probably equally bad
That’s the old joke: vegetarians and teetotallers don’t actually live longer - it just seems that way
Or to quote Jeff Dunham's old friend Walter, time just feels like it moves slower when you're talking to them.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Nah quantitative tightening is the order of the day, it's already started with £30bn of government bonds maturing not being reinvested. The US is about to follow suit.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
When the credit markets break the fed will have no choice but to reverse policy Otherwise peoples pensions go up on smoke Remember we live in a democracy the pressure to print money will be immense
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
I usually consider myself pretty anti-woke, but when I read this kind of shit it puts me right into the opposite camp. If you're prepared to dismantle democracy over trans-bathrooms, then maybe it's not woke that's the problem.
Just following up on this, because it makes me so angry. The rallying cry in this piece is "No more Joshua Katzes".
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Nah quantitative tightening is the order of the day, it's already started with £30bn of government bonds maturing not being reinvested. The US is about to follow suit.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
When the credit markets break the fed will have no choice but to reverse policy Otherwise peoples pensions go up on smoke Remember we live in a democracy the pressure to print money will be immense
The Labour Party was set up in the first place to predominantly be a party for people with few or no qualifications. Why are they so unpopular with this group today?
I think that this is the more interesting question and the voting patterns of the US are remarkably similar in this respect with Republicans doing way better with lower socio-economic groups than you would expect. Deemocrats also find it easier to attract graduates than working class folk.
Age obviously has a lot to do with it but I don't think it is the whole answer. I think that you need to look at the policy mix. Graduates as a very broad generality believe in an activist state that can do good. Non graduates look at a state that is very good for those employed by it (disproportionately graduates, funnily enough) but which is pretty crap at doing much for them.
Where the State does express an interest it is disproportionately interested in minorities, in those with unusual sexual characteristics or proclivities, in the approved list of the oppressed. It shows almost no interest in the needs of the indigenous majority who get very little help or assistance with pretty tough lives. This may not be entirely true in fact but it is in the noise and in the media; it is what the graduates working in these organisations like to talk about obsessively. These non graduates find that a distinct turn off and are attracted to a party that treats the State as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The answer from the left's point of view is to refocus the efforts of the State to those who actually need their help as opposed to being suitable for their well paid largesse. But, increasingly, they hold these people and their views in contempt. We saw this with Hilary in the US and of course in the Brexit arguments here. I don't think that they can bear going near the people that they claim to represent and once did in a dim and distant time.
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
I usually consider myself pretty anti-woke, but when I read this kind of shit it puts me right into the opposite camp. If you're prepared to dismantle democracy over trans-bathrooms, then maybe it's not woke that's the problem.
Just following up on this, because it makes me so angry. The rallying cry in this piece is "No more Joshua Katzes".
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
For me the issue is slightly different. Take Sabatini. I’ve read one article (the one posted the other day) so have no idea whether he was guilty or innocent
He was fired. That could be an appropriate response if he was guilty.
He found another university willing to employ him after completing due diligence. And yet the political mob made it way too costly for that institution to offer him a job.
So suddenly the penalty for his offence isn’t the loss of his job but it’s the end of his career. That’s a real issue without due process and appropriate protections.
An inflationary recession will be completely different to 2008,, the pain will be widely shared
No it won't. The asset rich gonna make out like banditz.
Yes when the BOE panics and opens the monetary spigots asset prices will soar but not until they do and we then run the real risk of a hyperinflationary collapse
Nah quantitative tightening is the order of the day, it's already started with £30bn of government bonds maturing not being reinvested. The US is about to follow suit.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
When the credit markets break the fed will have no choice but to reverse policy Otherwise peoples pensions go up on smoke Remember we live in a democracy the pressure to print money will be immense
Why would the credit markets “break”?
Because... mumble mumble... fiat currencies.
Nah, its because they are greedy bastards who don't know when to stop. See 2008.
The Labour Party was set up in the first place to predominantly be a party for people with few or no qualifications. Why are they so unpopular with this group today?
I think that this is the more interesting question and the voting patterns of the US are remarkably similar in this respect with Republicans doing way better with lower socio-economic groups than you would expect. Deemocrats also find it easier to attract graduates than working class folk.
Age obviously has a lot to do with it but I don't think it is the whole answer. I think that you need to look at the policy mix. Graduates as a very broad generality believe in an activist state that can do good. Non graduates look at a state that is very good for those employed by it (disproportionately graduates, funnily enough) but which is pretty crap at doing much for them.
Where the State does express an interest it is disproportionately interested in minorities, in those with unusual sexual characteristics or proclivities, in the approved list of the oppressed. It shows almost no interest in the needs of the indigenous majority who get very little help or assistance with pretty tough lives. This may not be entirely true in fact but it is in the noise and in the media; it is what the graduates working in these organisations like to talk about obsessively. These non graduates find that a distinct turn off and are attracted to a party that treats the State as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The answer from the left's point of view is to refocus the efforts of the State to those who actually need their help as opposed to being suitable for their well paid largesse. But, increasingly, they hold these people and their views in contempt. We saw this with Hilary in the US and of course in the Brexit arguments here. I don't think that they can bear going near the people that they claim to represent and once did in a dim and distant time.
This is in my view hitting the nail on the head absolutely. Help should be on a need basis not on a which checkbox you tick basis and yes we do need a state to act as a backstop. However far to often you find that when you need help you can't get it but you could if you ticked some boxes. A case in point is education...you will here people saying group x is being disadvantaged and not doing as well lets help them...when its white males from poor backgrounds deafened by silence. I am in no way saying those groups shouldn't be helped. I am saying help those most in need and target them rather than segregate them by gender faith sexuality colour.
We also should really be having the conversation. This is how much money the state has. This is how much each thing costs to do well. Pick what you want to do till it fills the money supply and the rest will have to rely on charities
"The police must investigate No. 10 parties!" - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined. "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!" - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them. "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"
Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?
Then add in Beergate: "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!" - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied. "Why does it matter? The police investigated?" - More evidence comes out. "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!" - The investigation is reopened. "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"
etc, etc.
Anyone in particular or is this an impressionistic sweep over any number of posters? In any case, wasn't it Boris, inter alia, who wanted the police investigation to kick the Gray report down the road?
I am finding the report by sky and now gbnews odd. Boris should not be having private meeting with Sue Gray other than one where she is interviewing him and any meeting should be minuted (ideally recorded as the police do) and in front of a witness. Why would Sue Gray agree to this? It enables people to trash her report and challenge her ethics so it is completely negative for her.
As I’ve said before, I’ve been there, as - it seems - have many PB-ers. It’s great that we can talk about it on here without shame or embarrassment. Sharing is part of curing. And the other parts of curing are the usual: exercise, good healthy food, fresh air, try and socialise if you can, but don’t curse yourself if you can’t, don’t refuse the happy pills if it gets that bad
Alcohol is a puzzler. All the medical advice says Don’t do it, booze makes it worse, it’s a depressant. And yet it numbs the pain, doesn’t it? And that is really quite helpful, at times. Each to their own
Most of all remember that depression is like bad weather. There isn’t THAT much you can do, but shelter and endure, but bad weather ALWAYS passes. Hunker down and sit it out
Morning! Sharing is definitely part of curing - its just that so many of my friends seem to have had a mental kicking for various reasons over the last few years. I think I've become increasingly prone to bouts of it but at least now I know the warning signs and can usually find a way to pull back from the edge of that drop into the pit.
What would be great would be if I could drop the 15kgs the happy pills added to my frame. OK so I could make better food / drink choices and I'm not as fit as I was, but I tried hard and nothing shifts it more than temporarily - we all seem to have a balanced weight that we come back to, and mine is just a chunk more than it was pre happy pills.
The Labour Party was set up in the first place to predominantly be a party for people with few or no qualifications. Why are they so unpopular with this group today?
I think that this is the more interesting question and the voting patterns of the US are remarkably similar in this respect with Republicans doing way better with lower socio-economic groups than you would expect. Deemocrats also find it easier to attract graduates than working class folk.
Age obviously has a lot to do with it but I don't think it is the whole answer. I think that you need to look at the policy mix. Graduates as a very broad generality believe in an activist state that can do good. Non graduates look at a state that is very good for those employed by it (disproportionately graduates, funnily enough) but which is pretty crap at doing much for them.
Where the State does express an interest it is disproportionately interested in minorities, in those with unusual sexual characteristics or proclivities, in the approved list of the oppressed. It shows almost no interest in the needs of the indigenous majority who get very little help or assistance with pretty tough lives. This may not be entirely true in fact but it is in the noise and in the media; it is what the graduates working in these organisations like to talk about obsessively. These non graduates find that a distinct turn off and are attracted to a party that treats the State as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The answer from the left's point of view is to refocus the efforts of the State to those who actually need their help as opposed to being suitable for their well paid largesse. But, increasingly, they hold these people and their views in contempt. We saw this with Hilary in the US and of course in the Brexit arguments here. I don't think that they can bear going near the people that they claim to represent and once did in a dim and distant time.
This is in my view hitting the nail on the head absolutely. Help should be on a need basis not on a which checkbox you tick basis and yes we do need a state to act as a backstop. However far to often you find that when you need help you can't get it but you could if you ticked some boxes. A case in point is education...you will here people saying group x is being disadvantaged and not doing as well lets help them...when its white males from poor backgrounds deafened by silence. I am in no way saying those groups shouldn't be helped. I am saying help those most in need and target them rather than segregate them by gender faith sexuality colour.
We also should really be having the conversation. This is how much money the state has. This is how much each thing costs to do well. Pick what you want to do till it fills the money supply and the rest will have to rely on charities
The irony is that it is the modern Conservative party that is taxing people until the pips squeek, who think the answer to every problem is more State, whether it is more policemen, more doctors and nurses or more regulation. Even Gordon Brown didn't tax people as severely as this "Tory" government is. Which leaves the group I have sought to describe with my wild generalisations nowhere to go at all.
Good morning everyone. Where's all this about a potential strike on the railways come from?
We covered it a little on the previous thread. Basically, a union that has some pro-Russian loons in its leadership is planning strikes that will help derail an industry that is in sore need of help after Covid.
Yet again, a union is trying to devastate an industry.
Just following up on this, because it makes me so angry. The rallying cry in this piece is "No more Joshua Katzes".
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
Even a cursory reading makes it clear that both the Sabatini & Katz cases are complicated.
Now maybe MIT & Princeton are behaving badly, I don't completely rule it out.
But, I can clearly see Sabatini & Katz did things that are at best ... very troubling ... & I am not at all surprised that they have ended up in a lot of difficulties.
In fact, Katz looks to me to have been lucky to get away with being "quietly suspended without pay for a year" after sex with one of his undergraduate students. It looks like Princeton University colluded in hushing it up, originally. After all, why "quietly"?
If this allegation is true -- " Dr. Katz had discouraged the woman from seeking mental health treatment while they were together, for fear of disclosing their relationship" -- then Katz should have been fired.
It sounds as though their inappropriate relationship put the student through mental turmoil, she wanted to get help & counselling for her problems and he pressurized her not to. If so, Katz needed booting out ten years ago.
Now Katz has become an embarrassment, & Princeton University seems to regret hushing up the original matter.
But IMO, the problem is really with the original investigation and cover-up.
The Labour Party was set up in the first place to predominantly be a party for people with few or no qualifications. Why are they so unpopular with this group today?
I think that this is the more interesting question and the voting patterns of the US are remarkably similar in this respect with Republicans doing way better with lower socio-economic groups than you would expect. Deemocrats also find it easier to attract graduates than working class folk.
Age obviously has a lot to do with it but I don't think it is the whole answer. I think that you need to look at the policy mix. Graduates as a very broad generality believe in an activist state that can do good. Non graduates look at a state that is very good for those employed by it (disproportionately graduates, funnily enough) but which is pretty crap at doing much for them.
Where the State does express an interest it is disproportionately interested in minorities, in those with unusual sexual characteristics or proclivities, in the approved list of the oppressed. It shows almost no interest in the needs of the indigenous majority who get very little help or assistance with pretty tough lives. This may not be entirely true in fact but it is in the noise and in the media; it is what the graduates working in these organisations like to talk about obsessively. These non graduates find that a distinct turn off and are attracted to a party that treats the State as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The answer from the left's point of view is to refocus the efforts of the State to those who actually need their help as opposed to being suitable for their well paid largesse. But, increasingly, they hold these people and their views in contempt. We saw this with Hilary in the US and of course in the Brexit arguments here. I don't think that they can bear going near the people that they claim to represent and once did in a dim and distant time.
This is in my view hitting the nail on the head absolutely. Help should be on a need basis not on a which checkbox you tick basis and yes we do need a state to act as a backstop. However far to often you find that when you need help you can't get it but you could if you ticked some boxes. A case in point is education...you will here people saying group x is being disadvantaged and not doing as well lets help them...when its white males from poor backgrounds deafened by silence. I am in no way saying those groups shouldn't be helped. I am saying help those most in need and target them rather than segregate them by gender faith sexuality colour.
We also should really be having the conversation. This is how much money the state has. This is how much each thing costs to do well. Pick what you want to do till it fills the money supply and the rest will have to rely on charities
The irony is that it is the modern Conservative party that is taxing people until the pips squeek, who think the answer to every problem is more State, whether it is more policemen, more doctors and nurses or more regulation. Even Gordon Brown didn't tax people as severely as this "Tory" government is. Which leaves the group I have sought to describe with my wild generalisations nowhere to go at all.
Precisely, I have been unable to vote since 2010. My constituency only ever seems to have a choice of LD, Lab or Con and they are all equally of the same mind when it comes to state spending.
"The police must investigate No. 10 parties!" - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined. "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!" - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them. "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"
Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?
Then add in Beergate: "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!" - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied. "Why does it matter? The police investigated?" - More evidence comes out. "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!" - The investigation is reopened. "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"
etc, etc.
Anyone in particular or is this an impressionistic sweep over any number of posters? In any case, wasn't it Boris, inter alia, who wanted the police investigation to kick the Gray report down the road?
I am finding the report by sky and now gbnews odd. Boris should not be having private meeting with Sue Gray other than one where she is interviewing him and any meeting should be minuted (ideally recorded as the police do) and in front of a witness. Why would Sue Gray agree to this? It enables people to trash her report and challenge her ethics so it is completely negative for her.
they have to agree the whitewash of her report, Boris just showing her all the bits she had to remove.
As I’ve said before, I’ve been there, as - it seems - have many PB-ers. It’s great that we can talk about it on here without shame or embarrassment. Sharing is part of curing. And the other parts of curing are the usual: exercise, good healthy food, fresh air, try and socialise if you can, but don’t curse yourself if you can’t, don’t refuse the happy pills if it gets that bad
Alcohol is a puzzler. All the medical advice says Don’t do it, booze makes it worse, it’s a depressant. And yet it numbs the pain, doesn’t it? And that is really quite helpful, at times. Each to their own
Most of all remember that depression is like bad weather. There isn’t THAT much you can do, but shelter and endure, but bad weather ALWAYS passes. Hunker down and sit it out
Morning! Sharing is definitely part of curing - its just that so many of my friends seem to have had a mental kicking for various reasons over the last few years. I think I've become increasingly prone to bouts of it but at least now I know the warning signs and can usually find a way to pull back from the edge of that drop into the pit.
What would be great would be if I could drop the 15kgs the happy pills added to my frame. OK so I could make better food / drink choices and I'm not as fit as I was, but I tried hard and nothing shifts it more than temporarily - we all seem to have a balanced weight that we come back to, and mine is just a chunk more than it was pre happy pills.
I have had the same problem. Do these pills make you more lethargic or less prone to pushing yourself with exercise or just hungrier? I seem to suffer from all of these to varying extents. Its more than a bit depressing!
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
I usually consider myself pretty anti-woke, but when I read this kind of shit it puts me right into the opposite camp. If you're prepared to dismantle democracy over trans-bathrooms, then maybe it's not woke that's the problem.
Just following up on this, because it makes me so angry. The rallying cry in this piece is "No more Joshua Katzes".
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
At least with Ukraine they can't cite Putin as the answer anymore. They are stuck with Victor Orban. Interestingly, Orban is a total mystery - no one serious has ever studied him. It seems all to be propoganda, one way or the other. I'm reading Fiona Hill's book about Putin, and its good that we have that. A fascinating read.
I would say that, as a general rule, the 'woke' stuff is just as bad as the insane right wing stuff - but the former is best understood as a response to the latter, which has been around for longer.
Good morning everyone. Where's all this about a potential strike on the railways come from?
We covered it a little on the previous thread. Basically, a union that has some pro-Russian loons in its leadership is planning strikes that will help derail an industry that is in sore need of help after Covid.
Yet again, a union is trying to devastate an industry.
Thanks; I'll have a look back at some point.
Although my natural ideological position is pro-trade unions.
How are the blue-tit chicks doing? Ours seem quite active, although there's, sadly, the sort of percentage loss that we usually see; at least one of ours appears to have died.
"What exists — what people have created — is a system that allows certain favored people to position themselves as victims, and destroy those they have come to hate. Aside from the human tragedy here, think of the scientific discoveries that are now denied to us, because of this vengeful woman, and this vengeful, unjust system we have created — a system that is a Machine incapable of dealing with humanity, in all its complexity.
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
I usually consider myself pretty anti-woke, but when I read this kind of shit it puts me right into the opposite camp. If you're prepared to dismantle democracy over trans-bathrooms, then maybe it's not woke that's the problem.
Just following up on this, because it makes me so angry. The rallying cry in this piece is "No more Joshua Katzes".
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
I am not sure what is "Woke" about the Sabatini case. It reads to me to be a straightforward case of sexual harrassment. Or is refusing to tolerate sexual harrassment now "Woke"? If so what do the "anti-Woke" crowd want?
I would like everyone in science to read the painful, poignant description of what, exactly, Sabatini did to women under his mentorship. It should make you sick to your stomach. I don't think I could still be in science if I'd faced any of this. https://t.co/vJ5E7NWMEJ
Comments
Not you Sailor Ted, fuck off. 🤭
Thackeray?
Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?
'I was only showing her a scale model of the rocket!'
De rigeur for Norfolk I'm told.
As I said, I get the feeling the summer is going to be very important for this issue and I also get an overwhelming sense that whatever comes from the talks will end up being acceptable to both sides but the EU will move a lot more than they would have wanted to. Western unity is important and the potential for the UK to say "we are reconsidering our ongoing security commitment to continental Europe" is much higher than most realise.
There's supposed to be a lot of exasperation in Westminster that the EU is, on the one hand, asking for US and UK money ($28bn from the US so far and $3bn from the UK) to fund European defence in Ukraine but on the other creating a bunch of issues around NI and customs it doesn't need to. I could now see the UK pull out of all defence and intelligence cooperation with the EU and instead only go via NATO and bilateral treaties. I expect it's this potential flashpoint that has forced the US to come and force a solution.
After the whitewash, the “he’s got away with it” haunts him and the Tories in a different way, where liar isn’t in middle of heatmap - lying bastard is.
It stems basically from next week, when he doesn’t fess up, apologies and own what really happened, just one FPN for a few seconds with a cake - and forever more his premiership is haunted by the phone call “they have a photo, and they are publishing it tomorrow.”
The Tories may already have blown their chance are properly fighting meltdown at next election - as someone wisely posted this week, losing this years vonc, next years vonc is getting rather close to the election.
The sell off on US tech stocks needs to be kept in proportion. The Nasdaq is just back to where it was in 2020, and is still considerably up on pre pandemic.
...despite what Lilico thinks:
Robert Peston
@Peston
In Downing Street there is a sense of injustice and considerable upset that the 126 Partygate fines have been levied disproportionately on women and junior officials. One source said: “the majority of [those fined] are very junior diary managers etc on 24k-ish and these fines…
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1527583568263884802
Next up, poorly armed peasants angry that they are the ones made to storm the castle walls rather than the Lord.
Clue. They will have. Have they gone too far? Or not enough? That's the trick.
I'm staying.out. Either result seems plausible. Therefore I will be neither surprised nor impecunious.
I wouldn't necessarily predict a fall in the value of the asset rich's assets, but neither do I expect the rise in asset valuations to keep pace with inflation.
Central banks can't loosen policy while inflation is high. The 'Fed put' no longer applies in this kind of scenario.
EDIT - which yours truly believes is WAY more about influence peddling than business planning. Or rather, making important friends and influencing influential people (or those soon to be) IS the business plan.
Boris may still be there another 12 months, because on this occasion the Tory Party have messed up being ruthless when they need to. But Partygate never goes away now. It just moves into a different phase. A more angry and bitter phase.
I know this because I thought about writing a thread about him being POTUS then realised he's not a natural born American citizen.
https://news.sky.com/story/john-shuttleworth-comedy-gig-inside-cave-halted-halfway-after-fan-gets-trapped-in-tree-above-gorge-12617846
I also think the story on front the express is great too. Royal Family secretly house refugees.
Shock poll in Mail says that unless Tories do something about cost of living crisis they will lose next election.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10838745/Boris-grip-cost-living-crisis-LOSE-election-Mail-poll-issues-warning-PM.html
The UK has already withdrawn from all other major European defence structures. EUMS, etc.
My esteemed opinion now is, it’s so close it all depends on number of crocs sitting on their vote this year, and how many Koalas can be bothered to come out their tree and vote the two hours they will actually be awake for. Koalas voting was described as extremely slow all day last time, whilst there are ongoing issues billabong building as the crocs don’t want to live in the green belt. Relations with crocs has gone down hill due to refusal of movie productions to cast crocodiles in the role of crocodiles.
Fun fact. Australian politics leads the world for using specially trained spiders to spin stories. specially trained fruit bats are also employed by political parties to Bat accusations back.
I think I’m done now.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/21/heading-1997/
Economy. Sleaze. Tactical voting. Labour ahead on voting intention, best PM and economic competence.
(It's actually quite an interesting place.)
"The police must investigate No. 10 parties!"
- The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined.
"Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!"
- The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them.
"The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"
Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?
Then add in Beergate:
"The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!"
- It turns out that the Labour Party had lied.
"Why does it matter? The police investigated?"
- More evidence comes out.
"Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!"
- The investigation is reopened.
"It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"
etc, etc.
Parliament could burn down "any day", former minister Andrea Leadsom has warned as she urged MPs to "get on" with the renovation of the building.
Speaking to the BBC, she said the Houses of Parliament could see a fire similar to the one that damaged the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris.
Parliament needs urgent repair work that could cost between £7bn and £13bn.
A recent report said costs could be kept down if MPs and peers left while the building work was carried out.
However, some politicians have expressed concern about moving out and plans to relocate to Richmond House in central London were vetoed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61526638
I still maintain that many of these politicians must be secretly hoping that the place will ultimately burn down. They'd then be armed with an excuse for spending money on a shiny, modern replacement.
The irony of Leadsom’s remarks, of which I ahve no doubt she is unaware, is that the Notre Dame fire was caused by the repairs that were being carried out!
I have been hearing in private correspondence, and in this blog’s comments section, some people saying that they don’t recognize what America has become, and that they are exploring ways to leave. Others — I’m thinking of a friend who is a very well known academic — says that no matter what, he is staying to fight to the bitter end. The incredible thing is that we are having these conversations at all. I can do the work I do just fine here, for now, but if I were and up-and-coming Joshua Katz or David Sabatini, I would start looking to start my career in Europe or elsewhere abroad, where they aren’t as insane as Woke America has become.
And listen: the thing you see so clearly if you live any time abroad, as I have done in Hungary over the past year, is that America remains a cultural powerhouse, exporting our own insanity to the world. One of the reasons I strongly support Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is that he is not intimidated by any of it, and he understands the need to use what power he has as the country’s political leader to defy this insanity, and to prevent it from taking root in his country.
What I hope to see in our country is a Republican Party come to power on a platform of actively rolling back wokeness, institutionally and otherwise. Not just opposing it rhetorically, but using the power of the state to push it back, hard. No more Joshua Katzes. No more David Sabatinis. No more martyrs to this totalitarian ideology that is destroying our ability to live together as broken human beings."
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/we-are-all-joshua-katz-david-sabatini-wokeness/
Which brings us to:-
Boris Johnson pressed to 'urgently explain' meeting with Sue Gray over partygate report
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/boris-johnson-pressed-to-urgently-explain-meeting-with-sue-gray-over-partygate-report/299754
I'm also bemused by the idea that Europe is less 'woke' than the USA. I'd urge any anti-woke American wanting to come to our idyllic woke-free paradise to stay where they are and pollute their own cesspool.
OK Fine. Joshua Katz lost a prestigious, but non-paying honorory position, at a private university for writing an unwoke article.
Lots of people have lost actual paying jobs at private Brigham Young University or at Liberty University for arguing that homosexuality should not be illegal.
Where is the cry about the stifling of debate when it is people expressing those views? If it's bad that Princetown said "no you can't have this position because you wrote this article", then it shold be just as bad when it is the other way around.
Freedom of speech is not just for those who agree with us.
Age obviously has a lot to do with it but I don't think it is the whole answer. I think that you need to look at the policy mix. Graduates as a very broad generality believe in an activist state that can do good. Non graduates look at a state that is very good for those employed by it (disproportionately graduates, funnily enough) but which is pretty crap at doing much for them.
Where the State does express an interest it is disproportionately interested in minorities, in those with unusual sexual characteristics or proclivities, in the approved list of the oppressed. It shows almost no interest in the needs of the indigenous majority who get very little help or assistance with pretty tough lives. This may not be entirely true in fact but it is in the noise and in the media; it is what the graduates working in these organisations like to talk about obsessively. These non graduates find that a distinct turn off and are attracted to a party that treats the State as a part of the problem rather than the solution.
The answer from the left's point of view is to refocus the efforts of the State to those who actually need their help as opposed to being suitable for their well paid largesse. But, increasingly, they hold these people and their views in contempt. We saw this with Hilary in the US and of course in the Brexit arguments here. I don't think that they can bear going near the people that they claim to represent and once did in a dim and distant time.
He was fired. That could be an appropriate response if he was guilty.
He found another university willing to employ him after completing due diligence. And yet the political mob made it way too costly for that institution to offer him a job.
So suddenly the penalty for his offence isn’t the loss of his job but it’s the end of his career. That’s a real issue without due process and appropriate protections.
Mob rule is always deeply troublesome
Where's all this about a potential strike on the railways come from?
We also should really be having the conversation. This is how much money the state has. This is how much each thing costs to do well. Pick what you want to do till it fills the money supply and the rest will have to rely on charities
What would be great would be if I could drop the 15kgs the happy pills added to my frame. OK so I could make better food / drink choices and I'm not as fit as I was, but I tried hard and nothing shifts it more than temporarily - we all seem to have a balanced weight that we come back to, and mine is just a chunk more than it was pre happy pills.
Yet again, a union is trying to devastate an industry.
Now maybe MIT & Princeton are behaving badly, I don't completely rule it out.
But, I can clearly see Sabatini & Katz did things that are at best ... very troubling ... & I am not at all surprised that they have ended up in a lot of difficulties.
In fact, Katz looks to me to have been lucky to get away with being "quietly suspended without pay for a year" after sex with one of his undergraduate students. It looks like Princeton University colluded in hushing it up, originally. After all, why "quietly"?
If this allegation is true -- " Dr. Katz had discouraged the woman from seeking mental health treatment while they were together, for fear of disclosing their relationship" -- then Katz should have been fired.
It sounds as though their inappropriate relationship put the student through mental turmoil, she wanted to get help & counselling for her problems and he pressurized her not to. If so, Katz needed booting out ten years ago.
Now Katz has become an embarrassment, & Princeton University seems to regret hushing up the original matter.
But IMO, the problem is really with the original investigation and cover-up.
I would say that, as a general rule, the 'woke' stuff is just as bad as the insane right wing stuff - but the former is best understood as a response to the latter, which has been around for longer.
Although my natural ideological position is pro-trade unions.
How are the blue-tit chicks doing? Ours seem quite active, although there's, sadly, the sort of percentage loss that we usually see; at least one of ours appears to have died.
https://twitter.com/lianafaye/status/1519751629628575744?t=aGW7GaNQiDYK0jQ33nDICQ&s=19
I would like everyone in science to read the painful, poignant description of what, exactly, Sabatini did to women under his mentorship. It should make you sick to your stomach. I don't think I could still be in science if I'd faced any of this. https://t.co/vJ5E7NWMEJ