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Voting intention – the educational divide – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    Pagan2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    boulay said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    This place is ridiculously agreeable

    Emo as fuck.
    Come down for a coffee! There’s plenty of space

    It’s Charlie’s Coffee and Brunch bar. By the harbour. I’ll get you an espresso


    I am following your and Daughter's travel itineraries.

    Any moment now I expect to find a picture of you both appearing in my WhatsApp ("Mum - I met someone else who reads PB for hours over a drink. Honestly you both need to get a life.").
    Fantastic - we could see our first PB wedding, Leon and Cyclefree JR with Sean T as best man.
    @Cyclefree is much more positive on the idea of her daughter meeting @Leon than she was when I suggested it a week ago!

    :lol:
    I am preparing myself. Not encouraging it!
    Considers the situation of Cyclefree being Leons new mother in law...decides i must be living in one of the stranger universes
    We are running a long long way ahead of ourselves......

    I mean, do we even know that this @Leon character actually exists. They might be one of these AI / GP3 (or whatever it is) he/she/it is always talking about.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    It’s over for Morrison.

    Labour minority government.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    edited May 2022
    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,263
    A spat now developing between Sue Grays spokesperson and no 10 over who called their meeting

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,718
    nico679 said:

    A spat now developing between Sue Grays spokesperson and no 10 over who called their meeting

    Get Case to investigate this one. No reports to be published until that has been resolved.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,853
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The mixed standards of some on here is hilarious:

    "The police must investigate No. 10 parties!"
    - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined.
    "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!"
    - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them.
    "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"

    Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?

    Then add in Beergate:
    "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!"
    - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated?"
    - More evidence comes out.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!"
    - The investigation is reopened.
    "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"

    etc, etc.

    You do know that is quite literally the Wail's position reversed. Attacks Labour's push on this - DON'T THEY KNOW THERE'S A WAR ON. Then 10 days of stories piling pressure on the police to do Starmer - one front page literally being TORY PRESSURE TO MAKE THE POLICE ACT. Then Starmer says "I'll quit" and they complain he's trying to pressure the police, then when newss breaks about the Met whitewhash its "WHAT A WASTE OF MONEY".

    So you are right, but you're talking about the Tories.

    Remember there is a very clear difference between the two sides. We have reams of evidence about Boris and Number 10 breaking the law over and over and over. She prepares a brutal report. Someone leans on the Met to provide cover. Which they do. With a narrow field of investigation. So that now the Gray report will come out and tear Number 10 apart the police have already found Him innocent by simply not investigating the hideous reportage and photos we're about to get. The establishment always looks after its own - if you are a civil servant with a gong you get protected whilst all your staff carry the can.#

    If you want to gloat feel free. Not a good luck for the pro-establishment party as people starve.
    I don't care if it's the Mail's position, or the opposite of it.

    You were in denial over Beergate. I have no idea if Starmer or anyone else there will get a fine - the law appears to be so poorly written that pretty much anything could result. But it was clear the moment that it turned out that Labour had not told the truth about who had been there that the police investigation had not been thorough.

    it would be good for you to be consistent.
    I am being consistent. There was a prime fascie case against Johnson which the Met now appear to have investigated primarily to sweep under the carpet. There was not one against Starmer, and the "evidence" was not sufficient to suggest the law had been broken.

    That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate.

    I still think there is nothing to see and expect nobody to get fined. Buit if I'm wrong they fall on their sword and leave the stage. Which is more than can be said for Bonzo and his Clown Car circus. We're going to get the Gray report. Reams of it. Photos and all. And people like you will say "nothing to see here" for the various events the Met haven't even investigated because no fines have been issued.

    I'm quite happy with the consistency of my position. Which on all things is apply the rules equally.
    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



    Evidence please.
    It'll come in time.

    For a start, Johnson seems to have been taken at his lawyer's word that all these events he attended he considered to be work and therefore was allowed. But social events at work were not allowed. The only event he has been done for is one that is a joke - a cake turned up at the end of a meeting. The other events were massive piss-ups and we've seen some photo evidence and there's more to come no doubt now that only the kids and the women have actually been fined.

    But, to be honest, what's the point anymore? I'm tired of it all. He's safe as houses until GE 2024.

    Hopefully enough voters are as angry as I am and will not have forgotten by 2024.
    The only one I recall seeing pictures of is the garden party - there he was sitting with his wife and a couple of others. Everyone else in the garden appeared to be socially distanced groups. So it’s possible that Boris thought it was ok/ that it was a work meeting / drink with friends (I’ve lost track of what was allowed when).

    The zoom quiz he was on zoom from what I recall.

    But I’ve never really been interested
    Well you should be. Imagine if Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn had led us down this garden path. You would be outraged.

    The wagons have been well and truly circled, but by whom is alarming.
    Nah. Don’t really care. Both Johnson and Corbyn were unsuitable candidates for PM.

    But whether or not he had a cake doesn’t change my view of him.
    I really dont get the whole thing about partygate/beergate....politician lies through his teeth....its a dog bites postman style story
    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
    AIUI, because it's a formal statement in a formal situation; and also a basic rule of parliamentary procedure. But the contrast was very apparent in my thoughts, if only implicitly.
    A bit like lying in a court room? A bit like perjury?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
    What do you mean? I assumed we were talking about forming a government out of the 151 elected MPs.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Yes sadly it appears the Russians are starting to win now, ,zelensky making noises about hell in donbass was a sign,,,our media gone relatively quiet too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    dixiedean said:

    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.

    Labor currently lead in 76 seats, giving a majority of 1. However in some of those WA seats their lead over the Coalition is narrowing
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    nico679 said:

    A spat now developing between Sue Grays spokesperson and no 10 over who called their meeting

    Get Case to investigate this one. No reports to be published until that has been resolved.
    Actually you are spot on with sort of thing that now happens. Really have sense Gray is still too critical of senior leadership team incl Big Dog published today, so it needs to be delayed and hollowed out much more than this.

    I wouldn’t expect publishing this week at all if betting on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Putin is throwing everything at at least gaining the Donbas for Russia, so no surprise
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
    What do you mean? I assumed we were talking about forming a government out of the 151 elected MPs.
    Greens were supposed to be good for Lab in 2nd pref, but do we know where Indy stand if it’s coalition seats?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.

    Labor currently lead in 76 seats, giving a majority of 1. However in some of those WA seats their lead over the Coalition is narrowing
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
    Yeah. Labor gaining only 3 in WA now. But all lead by 10%. One government loss to Indy too by smaller margin. Still small numbers.
    Looks like Albanese is PM.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    It’s over for Morrison.

    Labour minority government.

    What will the upside down tories do now? Go for that one that looks like he has radiation poisoning?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited May 2022

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Warringah is an upper middle class wealthy part of the Sydney urban area Tony Abbott as Coalition candidate already lost to the Independents in 2019, so no surprise an anti trans candidate went down badly there.

    A poor pick for the seat, that campaign might work in blue collar areas not in areas full of wealthy graduates
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    The Parliament-as-fire-hazard-death-trap saga makes the news again this morning...

    Parliament could burn down "any day", former minister Andrea Leadsom has warned as she urged MPs to "get on" with the renovation of the building.

    Speaking to the BBC, she said the Houses of Parliament could see a fire similar to the one that damaged the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris.

    Parliament needs urgent repair work that could cost between £7bn and £13bn.

    A recent report said costs could be kept down if MPs and peers left while the building work was carried out.

    However, some politicians have expressed concern about moving out and plans to relocate to Richmond House in central London were vetoed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61526638

    I still maintain that many of these politicians must be secretly hoping that the place will ultimately burn down. They'd then be armed with an excuse for spending money on a shiny, modern replacement.

    Itd make more sense. They made a decision, now have reopened and seemingly deferred it (things seem to have progressed bigger all in years) and whilst arguing about moving out was bound to happen (even though it'll be much quicker and cheaper), they wont even agree to the eminently sensible option of moving some of them across the street, which would also surely be quicker and cheaper, or elsewhere nearby.

    The whole thing makes me spitting mad.
    It makes no sense to do anything other than have them all move out. Rent the QEII centre and set up something there for a couple of years. Re-purpose any empty space in Whitehall as offices.
    Why does it even need to exist? The MPs could have shit offices above a Ladbrokes in their constiuencies, debate on Zoom and vote on an app. I don't think we'd be conspicuously less well governed if that were the arrangement,
    they would miss the 24 subsidised bars and restaurants, they might even have to buy their own food out of their own pockets.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Or the vote just dropped because the Coalition are crap and the usual infighting over why is underway.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Gaurdian?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    The Parliament-as-fire-hazard-death-trap saga makes the news again this morning...

    Parliament could burn down "any day", former minister Andrea Leadsom has warned as she urged MPs to "get on" with the renovation of the building.

    Speaking to the BBC, she said the Houses of Parliament could see a fire similar to the one that damaged the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris.

    Parliament needs urgent repair work that could cost between £7bn and £13bn.

    A recent report said costs could be kept down if MPs and peers left while the building work was carried out.

    However, some politicians have expressed concern about moving out and plans to relocate to Richmond House in central London were vetoed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61526638

    I still maintain that many of these politicians must be secretly hoping that the place will ultimately burn down. They'd then be armed with an excuse for spending money on a shiny, modern replacement.

    Itd make more sense. They made a decision, now have reopened and seemingly deferred it (things seem to have progressed bigger all in years) and whilst arguing about moving out was bound to happen (even though it'll be much quicker and cheaper), they wont even agree to the eminently sensible option of moving some of them across the street, which would also surely be quicker and cheaper, or elsewhere nearby.

    The whole thing makes me spitting mad.
    It makes no sense to do anything other than have them all move out. Rent the QEII centre and set up something there for a couple of years. Re-purpose any empty space in Whitehall as offices.
    Why does it even need to exist? The MPs could have shit offices above a Ladbrokes in their constiuencies, debate on Zoom and vote on an app. I don't think we'd be conspicuously less well governed if that were the arrangement,
    they would miss the 24 subsidised bars and restaurants, they might even have to buy their own food out of their own pockets.
    They also wouldnt get to buy second homes by dipping in the pockets of those that cant buy a first home
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    At heavy cost though:

    Even more, another Stugna-P ATGM strike also by the 80th Air Assault Brigade against a Russian AFV.

    The Brigade claims destroying 3 Russian MBTs and 3 IFVs by their Anti-tank units in the past 24 hours.


    https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1527913961718435848?cxt=HHwWkMCy-eTpnrQqAAAA

    The key known unknown continues to be how soon the newly mobilised Ukrainian forces become available.

    Might be days, might be weeks, might be longer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Dura_Ace said:

    It’s over for Morrison.

    Labour minority government.

    What will the upside down tories do now? Go for that one that looks like he has radiation poisoning?
    Is that a reference to the atom bomb tests?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very early in WA, but ALP ahead in five seats for gains. Indy in another for net loss of 6 for Coalition. Mirroring the State election, as I alluded to earlier.
    Only about 2% counted, mind. This could swing it however.

    Labor currently lead in 76 seats, giving a majority of 1. However in some of those WA seats their lead over the Coalition is narrowing
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
    Yeah. Labor gaining only 3 in WA now. But all lead by 10%. One government loss to Indy too by smaller margin. Still small numbers.
    Looks like Albanese is PM.
    One Tasmania Labor held seat now Coalition ahead too, I agree Albanese is PM but I think in the end he will just fall short of a majority though could still go either way.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing would be my guess. Who the fuck is going to demine the Odessa approaches while there are Granits flying about and Bayraktars lighting up everything in sight?
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,853
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
    They'd need the backing of a dozen or so independents - it's beyond anything conceivable in this life.
    Would Independent 2nd pref make a difference.
    What do you mean? I assumed we were talking about forming a government out of the 151 elected MPs.
    Greens were supposed to be good for Lab in 2nd pref, but do we know where Indy stand if it’s coalition seats?
    In seats the ALP looks set to gain, they either:
    1. held their own vote while the Coalition's fell AND they picked up more second votes (e.g. from the Greens or independents); or
    2. they improved their vote while the Coalition's fell BUT they picked up a smaller percentage of second votes.

    This makes sense. There were obviously a group of people who had moved away from the coalition who, depending on seat, either more often vote ALP first preference or second preference.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,145

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Not much - Russians now focusing everything in a very narrow area. Gains are also a matter of miles - planned retreats and destruction of bridges - so classic defence in depth strategy by the Ukrainians
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The mixed standards of some on here is hilarious:

    "The police must investigate No. 10 parties!"
    - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined.
    "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!"
    - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them.
    "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"

    Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?

    Then add in Beergate:
    "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!"
    - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated?"
    - More evidence comes out.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!"
    - The investigation is reopened.
    "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"

    etc, etc.

    You do know that is quite literally the Wail's position reversed. Attacks Labour's push on this - DON'T THEY KNOW THERE'S A WAR ON. Then 10 days of stories piling pressure on the police to do Starmer - one front page literally being TORY PRESSURE TO MAKE THE POLICE ACT. Then Starmer says "I'll quit" and they complain he's trying to pressure the police, then when newss breaks about the Met whitewhash its "WHAT A WASTE OF MONEY".

    So you are right, but you're talking about the Tories.

    Remember there is a very clear difference between the two sides. We have reams of evidence about Boris and Number 10 breaking the law over and over and over. She prepares a brutal report. Someone leans on the Met to provide cover. Which they do. With a narrow field of investigation. So that now the Gray report will come out and tear Number 10 apart the police have already found Him innocent by simply not investigating the hideous reportage and photos we're about to get. The establishment always looks after its own - if you are a civil servant with a gong you get protected whilst all your staff carry the can.#

    If you want to gloat feel free. Not a good luck for the pro-establishment party as people starve.
    I don't care if it's the Mail's position, or the opposite of it.

    You were in denial over Beergate. I have no idea if Starmer or anyone else there will get a fine - the law appears to be so poorly written that pretty much anything could result. But it was clear the moment that it turned out that Labour had not told the truth about who had been there that the police investigation had not been thorough.

    it would be good for you to be consistent.
    I am being consistent. There was a prime fascie case against Johnson which the Met now appear to have investigated primarily to sweep under the carpet. There was not one against Starmer, and the "evidence" was not sufficient to suggest the law had been broken.

    That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate.

    I still think there is nothing to see and expect nobody to get fined. Buit if I'm wrong they fall on their sword and leave the stage. Which is more than can be said for Bonzo and his Clown Car circus. We're going to get the Gray report. Reams of it. Photos and all. And people like you will say "nothing to see here" for the various events the Met haven't even investigated because no fines have been issued.

    I'm quite happy with the consistency of my position. Which on all things is apply the rules equally.
    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



    Evidence please.
    It'll come in time.

    For a start, Johnson seems to have been taken at his lawyer's word that all these events he attended he considered to be work and therefore was allowed. But social events at work were not allowed. The only event he has been done for is one that is a joke - a cake turned up at the end of a meeting. The other events were massive piss-ups and we've seen some photo evidence and there's more to come no doubt now that only the kids and the women have actually been fined.

    But, to be honest, what's the point anymore? I'm tired of it all. He's safe as houses until GE 2024.

    Hopefully enough voters are as angry as I am and will not have forgotten by 2024.
    The only one I recall seeing pictures of is the garden party - there he was sitting with his wife and a couple of others. Everyone else in the garden appeared to be socially distanced groups. So it’s possible that Boris thought it was ok/ that it was a work meeting / drink with friends (I’ve lost track of what was allowed when).

    The zoom quiz he was on zoom from what I recall.

    But I’ve never really been interested
    Well you should be. Imagine if Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn had led us down this garden path. You would be outraged.

    The wagons have been well and truly circled, but by whom is alarming.
    Nah. Don’t really care. Both Johnson and Corbyn were unsuitable candidates for PM.

    But whether or not he had a cake doesn’t change my view of him.
    I really dont get the whole thing about partygate/beergate....politician lies through his teeth....its a dog bites postman style story
    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
    AIUI, because it's a formal statement in a formal situation; and also a basic rule of parliamentary procedure. But the contrast was very apparent in my thoughts, if only implicitly.
    A bit like lying in a court room? A bit like perjury?
    Well, quite. Though somehow different from the rest of us even so.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing, unless you can persuade President Biden to send in the US Navy as convoy escorts and risk ww3. It is not enough to persuade Putin to allow freighters to dock because the seas are heavily mined and Ukraine has no minesweepers, aiui.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
    I didnt say no spending on any of those things I said do the essentials fully then spend whats left on our next choices. I would imaging debt servicing, embassies come next then if money is left over transport infrastructure.

    Your view presupposes the essentials being fully funded will cost us everything we bring in from taxation. If that is truly the case then yes we need to trim what the state does quite drastically

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    Warringah is an upper middle class wealthy part of the Sydney urban area Tony Abbott as Coalition candidate already lost to the Independents in 2019, so no surprise an anti trans candidate went down badly there.

    A poor pick for the seat, that campaign might work in blue collar areas not in areas full of wealthy graduates
    8.4% swing to Labor on Primary in WA.
    Majority back on.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Phillips OBrien was tweeting yesterday that actually there's no real much sign of a breakthrough from RU. Gained a bit around Popasna, but questions whether they can hold it.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1527543664528048128
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326
    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    GaryL said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Yes sadly it appears the Russians are starting to win now, ,zelensky making noises about hell in donbass was a sign,,,our media gone relatively quiet too
    I'm not convinced. We will see in next couple of weeks. Loss rates for RU seem high by all accounts, they will run out of troops prepared to die pointlessly for Putin at some point this summer.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing, unless you can persuade President Biden to send in the US Navy as convoy escorts and risk ww3. It is not enough to persuade Putin to allow freighters to dock because the seas are heavily mined and Ukraine has no minesweepers, aiui.
    Biden is obviously fine tuning the support for Ukraine. Giving them just enough to keep them fighting and the Russians bleeding but not enough to allow them to win so VVP gets butthurt and throws the Risk board at the wall.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    GaryL said:

    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Dura_Ace said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Nothing, unless you can persuade President Biden to send in the US Navy as convoy escorts and risk ww3. It is not enough to persuade Putin to allow freighters to dock because the seas are heavily mined and Ukraine has no minesweepers, aiui.
    Biden is obviously fine tuning the support for Ukraine. Giving them just enough to keep them fighting and the Russians bleeding but not enough to allow them to win so VVP gets butthurt and throws the Risk board at the wall.
    Thank the gods it is him and not Trump making these calls.

    Trump would either have allowed Vlad to take the whole lot without lifting a finger, or seen something on Fox News that irritated him and started asking how to turn the launch code key.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    GaryL said:

    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

    I believe that Russian has now claimed to have shot down about 400% of the Ukrainian air force.

    Now throughout history claims of air losses have always been higher than reality but I wouldn't put much trust in anything Russia claimed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    Queensland’s relative conservatism is explained in this superb mappy breakdown here:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-20/federal-election-map-lying/101076016
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Musk’s takeover of Twitter, has inadvertently turned Tesla into a much more politicised company. It’s no surprise he needs to beef up the legal team there.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Yep. Highly litigious and a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 880

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Sounds to me like he's been watching a bit too much Better Call Saul and has spectacularly misread it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    HYUFD said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
    You mean the Yorkshire?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326
    dixiedean said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    You should try the Northern Territory. It’s like pre Civil War Louisiana
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
    Let me turn the question around somewhat.

    1) If you believe the russians were going to go full nuclear would you strike first

    2) What percentage of certainty of them going full nuclear would you need to trigger a premptive strike assuming the answer to 1) is yes

    3) If the answer to one is no then really why bother having the damn things as they are now merely a revenge weapon after your country is a nuclear desert
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,853
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
    I didnt say no spending on any of those things I said do the essentials fully then spend whats left on our next choices. I would imaging debt servicing, embassies come next then if money is left over transport infrastructure.

    Your view presupposes the essentials being fully funded will cost us everything we bring in from taxation. If that is truly the case then yes we need to trim what the state does quite drastically

    You refuse to even engage with my answer because it is, you say, a “pipe dream”, but your proposal, which includes possibly defaulting on our debt, that is clearly way outside the Overton window, does count…?

    If you want to discuss these topics, you’ve got to offer a modicum of coherence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
    You mean the Yorkshire?
    Yorkshire is the Texas of the UK too
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    GaryL said:

    More from the telegraph today

    The Russian military has claimed to have destroyed a large consignment of Western arms destined for Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. 

    The defence ministry alleged that the strike in the  north-western region of Zhytomyr, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, took out a "large batch" of weapons and military equipment delivered from the US and European countries. 

    The ministry also claimed that Russia had struck numerous Ukrainian command posts, fuel storage facilities near the city of Odesa and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones. The reports could not be independently verified. 

    Good for them and their propoganda, except that there are no reports of explosions in Zhytomyr Region.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The mixed standards of some on here is hilarious:

    "The police must investigate No. 10 parties!"
    - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined.
    "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!"
    - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them.
    "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"

    Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?

    Then add in Beergate:
    "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!"
    - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated?"
    - More evidence comes out.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!"
    - The investigation is reopened.
    "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"

    etc, etc.

    You do know that is quite literally the Wail's position reversed. Attacks Labour's push on this - DON'T THEY KNOW THERE'S A WAR ON. Then 10 days of stories piling pressure on the police to do Starmer - one front page literally being TORY PRESSURE TO MAKE THE POLICE ACT. Then Starmer says "I'll quit" and they complain he's trying to pressure the police, then when newss breaks about the Met whitewhash its "WHAT A WASTE OF MONEY".

    So you are right, but you're talking about the Tories.

    Remember there is a very clear difference between the two sides. We have reams of evidence about Boris and Number 10 breaking the law over and over and over. She prepares a brutal report. Someone leans on the Met to provide cover. Which they do. With a narrow field of investigation. So that now the Gray report will come out and tear Number 10 apart the police have already found Him innocent by simply not investigating the hideous reportage and photos we're about to get. The establishment always looks after its own - if you are a civil servant with a gong you get protected whilst all your staff carry the can.#

    If you want to gloat feel free. Not a good luck for the pro-establishment party as people starve.
    I don't care if it's the Mail's position, or the opposite of it.

    You were in denial over Beergate. I have no idea if Starmer or anyone else there will get a fine - the law appears to be so poorly written that pretty much anything could result. But it was clear the moment that it turned out that Labour had not told the truth about who had been there that the police investigation had not been thorough.

    it would be good for you to be consistent.
    I am being consistent. There was a prime fascie case against Johnson which the Met now appear to have investigated primarily to sweep under the carpet. There was not one against Starmer, and the "evidence" was not sufficient to suggest the law had been broken.

    That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate.

    I still think there is nothing to see and expect nobody to get fined. Buit if I'm wrong they fall on their sword and leave the stage. Which is more than can be said for Bonzo and his Clown Car circus. We're going to get the Gray report. Reams of it. Photos and all. And people like you will say "nothing to see here" for the various events the Met haven't even investigated because no fines have been issued.

    I'm quite happy with the consistency of my position. Which on all things is apply the rules equally.
    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



    Evidence please.
    It'll come in time.

    For a start, Johnson seems to have been taken at his lawyer's word that all these events he attended he considered to be work and therefore was allowed. But social events at work were not allowed. The only event he has been done for is one that is a joke - a cake turned up at the end of a meeting. The other events were massive piss-ups and we've seen some photo evidence and there's more to come no doubt now that only the kids and the women have actually been fined.

    But, to be honest, what's the point anymore? I'm tired of it all. He's safe as houses until GE 2024.

    Hopefully enough voters are as angry as I am and will not have forgotten by 2024.
    The only one I recall seeing pictures of is the garden party - there he was sitting with his wife and a couple of others. Everyone else in the garden appeared to be socially distanced groups. So it’s possible that Boris thought it was ok/ that it was a work meeting / drink with friends (I’ve lost track of what was allowed when).

    The zoom quiz he was on zoom from what I recall.

    But I’ve never really been interested
    Well you should be. Imagine if Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn had led us down this garden path. You would be outraged.

    The wagons have been well and truly circled, but by whom is alarming.
    Nah. Don’t really care. Both Johnson and Corbyn were unsuitable candidates for PM.

    But whether or not he had a cake doesn’t change my view of him.
    I really dont get the whole thing about partygate/beergate....politician lies through his teeth....its a dog bites postman style story
    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
    AIUI, because it's a formal statement in a formal situation; and also a basic rule of parliamentary procedure. But the contrast was very apparent in my thoughts, if only implicitly.
    A bit like lying in a court room? A bit like perjury?
    Well, quite. Though somehow different from the rest of us even so.
    It strikes me Parliament try’s a lot to be like a court room. I suspect not respecting norms like perjury the whole thing doesn’t work.

    I know a lot of Boris fans on here will disagree with me, but it’s very much like Boris putting himself before his party in disrespecting such norms, which a lot of former leaders and hopefully future leaders just won’t do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Leon said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    You should try the Northern Territory. It’s like pre Civil War Louisiana
    Labor has won the Northern Territory tonight, it has the highest aborigine vote in Australia. Queensland however has again voted for the Coalition against the trend overall in Australia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373

    The mixed standards of some on here is hilarious:

    "The police must investigate No. 10 parties!"
    - The parties are investigated and BJ and others get fined.
    "Look at the good job the police did! And there's more to come!"
    - The police don't issue more fines to BJ, but others do get them.
    "The police have done a horrid job! The top people have got away with it!"

    Perhaps the underlings who got done are not a victim of some stitch-up by No. 10 and the police, but victims of the get-Boris campaign?

    Then add in Beergate:
    "The police have investigated! There's nothing to see here! It's all a put-up job by the Mail!"
    - It turns out that the Labour Party had lied.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated?"
    - More evidence comes out.
    "Why does it matter? The police investigated? And the Mail's awful!"
    - The investigation is reopened.
    "It's a waste of police time to investigate this!"

    etc, etc.

    You do know that is quite literally the Wail's position reversed. Attacks Labour's push on this - DON'T THEY KNOW THERE'S A WAR ON. Then 10 days of stories piling pressure on the police to do Starmer - one front page literally being TORY PRESSURE TO MAKE THE POLICE ACT. Then Starmer says "I'll quit" and they complain he's trying to pressure the police, then when newss breaks about the Met whitewhash its "WHAT A WASTE OF MONEY".

    So you are right, but you're talking about the Tories.

    Remember there is a very clear difference between the two sides. We have reams of evidence about Boris and Number 10 breaking the law over and over and over. She prepares a brutal report. Someone leans on the Met to provide cover. Which they do. With a narrow field of investigation. So that now the Gray report will come out and tear Number 10 apart the police have already found Him innocent by simply not investigating the hideous reportage and photos we're about to get. The establishment always looks after its own - if you are a civil servant with a gong you get protected whilst all your staff carry the can.#

    If you want to gloat feel free. Not a good luck for the pro-establishment party as people starve.
    I don't care if it's the Mail's position, or the opposite of it.

    You were in denial over Beergate. I have no idea if Starmer or anyone else there will get a fine - the law appears to be so poorly written that pretty much anything could result. But it was clear the moment that it turned out that Labour had not told the truth about who had been there that the police investigation had not been thorough.

    it would be good for you to be consistent.
    I am being consistent. There was a prime fascie case against Johnson which the Met now appear to have investigated primarily to sweep under the carpet. There was not one against Starmer, and the "evidence" was not sufficient to suggest the law had been broken.

    That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate.

    I still think there is nothing to see and expect nobody to get fined. Buit if I'm wrong they fall on their sword and leave the stage. Which is more than can be said for Bonzo and his Clown Car circus. We're going to get the Gray report. Reams of it. Photos and all. And people like you will say "nothing to see here" for the various events the Met haven't even investigated because no fines have been issued.

    I'm quite happy with the consistency of my position. Which on all things is apply the rules equally.
    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    That does not appear to address the point I'm making about RP being inconsistent.
    @RochdalePioneers has said all along Beergate was a poor judgement call by the police, and despite what the Met have adjudicated, Johnson attended parties and as such misled the House.

    RP has been straight down the fairway consistent.
    Oh really?

    My *impression* of what he had been saying is that the police investigated it and therefore there was no reason to reopen the case. That was clearly rubbish after it turned out the police had not had the full information. As I recall, he consistently said that the full information was irrelevant. For reasons.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,487
    edited May 2022

    Apparently huge swing against anti-trans liberal activist Katherine Daves (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/19/katherine-deves-claims-key-role-in-controversial-bill-to-ban-trans-women-from-womens-sport) spilling over into neighbouring seats:

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/morrison-slammed-for-katherine-deves-pick-after-warringah-returned-to-stegall/news-story/f0883d689158cfbc3fea13608835d304

    I don't know anything about the controversy beyond the Gaurdian article, but surprised that voters are that bothered about the issue, and that they're coming down against banning trans women from women's sport. A mistake to go too heavily on an anti-woke ticket?

    ALBA and the Family Party didn't score very well in the Scottish local elections.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    So, let’s just take the first thing I mentioned, which was investing in housing, i.e. we should build more homes. How is that “more of the same”? House building has been low for decades, for 40+ years.
    Because none of those houses you advocate will ever get built because no major party supports it. I can imagine one of the major parties advocating lets get back to basics for what the state does but no party will support building enough houses because its electoral suicide.

    We are talking possible to get to not pipe dreams
    You were proposing massive cuts in state spending — including no state spending on transport infrastructure, embassies or even debt servicing. That’s a pipe dream!
    I didnt say no spending on any of those things I said do the essentials fully then spend whats left on our next choices. I would imaging debt servicing, embassies come next then if money is left over transport infrastructure.

    Your view presupposes the essentials being fully funded will cost us everything we bring in from taxation. If that is truly the case then yes we need to trim what the state does quite drastically

    You refuse to even engage with my answer because it is, you say, a “pipe dream”, but your proposal, which includes possibly defaulting on our debt, that is clearly way outside the Overton window, does count…?

    If you want to discuss these topics, you’ve got to offer a modicum of coherence.
    As I said I expect the essentials not to cost everything we take in tax. If they would then we are already in an unsustainable position and we may as well give up on having good services that count and help people
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    Not much - Russians now focusing everything in a very narrow area. Gains are also a matter of miles - planned retreats and destruction of bridges - so classic defence in depth strategy by the Ukrainians
    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
    Even in the ridiculously unlikely scenario of the West conducting a nuclear first strike, it would not be on Moscow.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    Heathener said:

    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.

    Isn't there a Select Committee inquiry on hold till after Gray?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    New thread.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    This thread has admitted fibbing in the HoC.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376

    dixiedean said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
    Dunno. Contrast with NSW. Which has had a right of centre State government for some years. Doesn't automatically correlate. Doesn't in Canada either. Don't know about Oz.
    But in Canada, certainly, the Parties aren't the same things locally as Federally.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Pagan2 said:

    GaryL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Update from Jeremy Bowen suggests that the Russians are beginning to make headway, sadly :-(

    "11:01 Ukrainian defences creaking in the Donbas"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

    It's the usual Russian playbook. Start off with an ill disciplined bloodbath, slowly adapt and then grind out a grim win. It's like they are managed by Neil Warnock.
    Question is what do we do about the blockade of Ukraine grain which could cause starvation in some of the developing countries
    Tell putin to remove the blockade else we nuke moscow is my feeling. It is going to go nuclear sooner or later and we get a first strike in at a time when a good percentage of his missiles probably wont work so will knock out a fair percentage of the actually launchable ones
    OK so your solution is nuclear armageddon,,, nice I think we should find more creative solutions then that
    If you believe the ukraine was is going to go nuclear anyway better to hit first. Simple as that. I do believe it will because I do not trust russian sanity.
    Even in the ridiculously unlikely scenario of the West conducting a nuclear first strike, it would not be on Moscow.
    Well probably not....I just have a different view on mad I guess. To me its better that other nuclear powers think we will do a first strike if we believe they are likely to launch. I would rather deter them from launching in the first place than say if you do launch we will fuck you up
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529

    dixiedean said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
    IIRC Brisbane's proportion of the Queensland population is significantly less than Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth are of their state's population.

    Although why 'outer' Queensland is relatively more attractive than 'outer' NSW or 'outer' Vic I don't know.

    I imagine that 'outer' WA and 'outer' SA have inhospitable climates and terrain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,908
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    You should try the Northern Territory. It’s like pre Civil War Louisiana
    Labor has won the Northern Territory tonight, it has the highest aborigine vote in Australia. Queensland however has again voted for the Coalition against the trend overall in Australia
    I meant more in the *interesting attitudes* you can hear, rather than the voting complexion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Was known as the "Deep North".
    Got a Labor majority State government mind. Has had for a while.
    Surprising. Is that because most of the Queensland population is in Brisbane or something? On the Poll Bludger thing, it's massively blue/LNP.
    Dunno. Contrast with NSW. Which has had a right of centre State government for some years. Doesn't automatically correlate. Doesn't in Canada either. Don't know about Oz.
    But in Canada, certainly, the Parties aren't the same things locally as Federally.
    Of the 3 largest states by population in Australia, NSW is the swing region in Australia Federally, leans Coalition at state level.

    Queensland leans Coalition Federally, less so at state level. Victoria is Labor Federally and at state level
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673
    Heathener said:

    Notwithstanding the initial breathless response from a few tory cheerleaders that the single PM fine meant he was free, in fact the opposite may be developing. There are at least 3 perils the PM faces over the next month:

    1. Publication of the Sue Gray report and verbatim exchanges with No. 10.
    This could be grim for the PM.

    2. The two by-election results

    3. The new whiff of cover-up. Far from exonerating the PM and drawing a line under it there's a sense that this merely adds to the stench. It's rather like the Prince Andrew saga: the more you hope it goes away, the greater the foul smell grows.


    I have long held the view that Johnson will survive until the next General Election. I am less sure now than at anytime since 2019. I think he is entering his most perilous period.

    Boris won't go of his own volition; that much is clear. And the Tory MPs are now in full-on Boris worship - hailing him as an invincible political superman. Difficult to see what could do for Boris under these circumstances.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,373
    Sandpit said:

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Musk’s takeover of Twitter, has inadvertently turned Tesla into a much more politicised company. It’s no surprise he needs to beef up the legal team there.
    It'll be interesting to see how Tesla shareholders' money can be spent on personal legal quests by Musk. I can imagine if the perceived slight is against Tesla, that'd be fine. If it's against Musk himself, how much can he claim that a slight against him affects Tesla enough for him to use Tesla's lawyers?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Heathener said:

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Yep. Highly litigious and a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
    Basically a Bond villain at this point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    edited May 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Elon Musk is looking for lawyers, and promises blood.

    Tesla is building a hardcore litigation department where we directly initiate & execute lawsuits. The team will report directly to me.

    Looking for hardcore streetfighters, not white-shoe lawyers like Perkins or Cooley who thrive on corruption.

    There will be blood.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527774704018280448

    Musk really is a little bully, isn't he? The only free speech he cares about is his own.
    Tesla, not Twitter, so unless it is a front, he might have something else planned. Forcing overrides of state laws?
    Musk’s takeover of Twitter, has inadvertently turned Tesla into a much more politicised company. It’s no surprise he needs to beef up the legal team there.
    It'll be interesting to see how Tesla shareholders' money can be spent on personal legal quests by Musk. I can imagine if the perceived slight is against Tesla, that'd be fine. If it's against Musk himself, how much can he claim that a slight against him affects Tesla enough for him to use Tesla's lawyers?
    Tesla itself, has been in litigation in many states for many years over dealerships.

    Most States have a law that says new cars can *only* be sold by independent franchised dealers, and not by manufacturers directly.

    Tesla has been trying to overturn this for a decade, since they were a small upstart company - but they’re now trying to do this as by far the biggest car company (by market valuation, obviously!) in the world!

    Obviously, litigation from Musk himself must be funded by Musk. Although maybe if his company has a bunch of hot-shot wankers lawyers on staff, they’d be amenable to some private work too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't know anything much about Australian politics, but I've learnt enough this morning through following the counts to know that I don't want to live in Queensland. Definitely not a lefty-friendly state.

    Queensland is the Texas of Australia
    You mean the Yorkshire?
    Yorkshire is the Texas of the UK too
    Oofta!
This discussion has been closed.