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Senate 2022: Pennsylvania, a truly Purple State – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 22 in General
imageSenate 2022: Pennsylvania, a truly Purple State – politicalbetting.com

I should state upfront I’m not as confident of the tip at the end of this article than normal.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,026
    If I can just say first. I'll read the article later thanks Quincel.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 211
    Second, really?
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 211
    Insert GIF of tumbleweed here…
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,100
    First.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    edited May 14
    I have no idea on how the race will go in November although I suspect red regain based on Bidens tumbling approval and the 'price of gas' metric. Oz though seems to be, unusually for a Trump pick, extraordinarily divisive within the 'Trump' community. Some tub thumpers in all other things are very anti. As such I think he's unlikely to win the nomination but Trumpdorsement is at 55-1 so far and thus might carry him over the line........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,553
    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,553
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    That does seem quite common in all democracies though. 'My party is s bit rubbish and things nationally aren't going well but I'm different and local, people of *insert place here*'
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?

    Yep. They need to be a credible solution to an actual problem. Social justice warrior policies are just a turn off for most. Always were. They have niche appeal for support but do drive the FFS crowd away
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,446

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?

    Might be if she or anyone in Labour had the slightest idea what to do about the cost of living or the economy more generally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,857
    Pennsylvania is arguably now the key swing state in the US, voted for Obama and Trump in 2012 and 2016 like Ohio and Florida but also voted for Biden, the winner, in 2020 while Ohio and Florida stuck with Trump.

    It is also divided between a GOP rural and small town heartland and a Democrat dominated big city in Philadelphia with the suburbs in between switching either way. Where the Senate race goes in November will therefore be a key indicator of the mood of the nation
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,727

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,597

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    The UK is also a near-peer in terms of economic and geopolitical power, it’s notably outspoken on Russia and this is the perfect comic book baddie. They can just about dream of defeating the UK militarily (though only with nukes). The US is just too obviously big and powerful by comparison.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    edited May 14
    FPT

    @Northern_Al
    You, and others may mock. When I was growing up in Leeds, we had the best football team in the country, the best county cricket team, and the best rugby league team. We also had the best music (The Who - Live at Leeds for example). Some time ago, admittedly.

    The glory days will return, and you'll all have to take Leeds seriously again. I hope

    dixiedean:

    Indeed. The continuing travails of the Rhinos is a mystery to all. They continue to have the most money, the second best squad in the league on paper.
    And second worst on the field for a while now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    Fishing said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?

    Might be if she or anyone in Labour had the slightest idea what to do about the cost of living or the economy more generally.
    Not alone there.
    No one in the Western world has. And hasn't since the GFC.
    Covid and this war has simply put the top hat and tails on it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    HYUFD said:

    Pennsylvania is arguably now the key swing state in the US, voted for Obama and Trump in 2012 and 2016 like Ohio and Florida but also voted for Biden, the winner, in 2020 while Ohio and Florida stuck with Trump.

    It is also divided between a GOP rural and small town heartland and a Democrat dominated big city in Philadelphia with the suburbs in between switching either way. Where the Senate race goes in November will therefore be a key indicator of the mood of the nation

    Yeah. It isn't purple at all.
    It's red with two blue blotches in the bottom corners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    Fishing said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?

    Might be if she or anyone in Labour had the slightest idea what to do about the cost of living or the economy more generally.
    That would help. But they don't actually need the slightest idea what to do, just for the public to perceive them as having the slightest idea what to do.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,756
    TimS said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    The UK is also a near-peer in terms of economic and geopolitical power, it’s notably outspoken on Russia and this is the perfect comic book baddie. They can just about dream of defeating the UK militarily (though only with nukes). The US is just too obviously big and powerful by comparison.
    Russia might also feel now is not the time for bigging up America just when its $40 billion Ukrainian aid package is stalled in the Senate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    That does seem quite common in all democracies though. 'My party is s bit rubbish and things nationally aren't going well but I'm different and local, people of *insert place here*'
    It's a conceit we employ so we feel less responsible for the way things develop, even when people will pick do it.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,028
    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    @Northern_Al
    You, and others may mock. When I was growing up in Leeds, we had the best football team in the country, the best county cricket team, and the best rugby league team. We also had the best music (The Who - Live at Leeds for example). Some time ago, admittedly.

    The glory days will return, and you'll all have to take Leeds seriously again. I hope

    dixiedean:

    Indeed. The continuing travails of the Rhinos is a mystery to all. They continue to have the most money, the second best squad in the league on paper.
    And second worst on the field for a while now.

    Second worst on the field during a game is fine...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    edited May 14

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    If the PRC shuts the border it could be economic carnage as well.
    Not that there's a great deal to destroy there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    @Northern_Al
    You, and others may mock. When I was growing up in Leeds, we had the best football team in the country, the best county cricket team, and the best rugby league team. We also had the best music (The Who - Live at Leeds for example). Some time ago, admittedly.

    The glory days will return, and you'll all have to take Leeds seriously again. I hope

    dixiedean:

    Indeed. The continuing travails of the Rhinos is a mystery to all. They continue to have the most money, the second best squad in the league on paper.
    And second worst on the field for a while now.

    Second worst on the field during a game is fine...
    Good point.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,175
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pennsylvania is arguably now the key swing state in the US, voted for Obama and Trump in 2012 and 2016 like Ohio and Florida but also voted for Biden, the winner, in 2020 while Ohio and Florida stuck with Trump.

    It is also divided between a GOP rural and small town heartland and a Democrat dominated big city in Philadelphia with the suburbs in between switching either way. Where the Senate race goes in November will therefore be a key indicator of the mood of the nation

    Yeah. It isn't purple at all.
    It's red with two blue blotches in the bottom corners.
    Well, a lot of the big red is mountains where few people live.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,175
    Fetterman's logic that people don't care about policy works fine as long as you are not putting votes on the record, which is what a Senator tends to end up doing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    I think that's a very fair set of thoughts
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    If the PRC shuts the border it could be economic carnage as well.
    Not that there's a great deal to destroy there.
    Indeed indeed. Messy world we are in
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    Insert GIF of tumbleweed here…

    It's "drop the daughter off at Kung Fu o'clock" coupled with a dense thread header. We can't just rattle off pithy one liners at 10am.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    The only thing we can be sure of is that if the regime admit to 21 deaths there have been a great many more than that.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    ydoethur said:

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    The only thing we can be sure of is that if the regime admit to 21 deaths there have been a great many more than that.
    The fact he has also admitted it a 'great disaster' speaks volumes. It's clearly got way too big to hide even in the PRNK
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842
    edited May 14

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    edited May 14
    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,881
    ClippP said:

    First.

    Spoken like a true LibDem…
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,247

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842
    edited May 14
    Governments pre-emptive strike on NUS has secured a key victory in war on woke today? Why on earth is tax payers money given to fund Unions anyway? We have been funding people to spout anti semitism?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    We are quite irritating really aren't we
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,175

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    I don't know if there is empirical evidence for voter backlash. Often you see a top-down backlash by the other side pulling its weaker candidates (like in Belfast North). But mostly these seem to fail because relatively few voters considered tactical voting, at least until the late 2010s.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,890

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    19m
    Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425

    ===

    Time for Nandy?

    Maybe but they have got no answers about the cost of living so the election will be won (and lost for Labour) on cultural issues.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Well - and before that too. India and the -istans; Kim etc.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,881

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    The UK is the one circling the coalition constantly behind the scenes. Chivying others, chasing backsliders, moving the ball forwards, expanding the support the coalition is prepared to provide and the conflict objectives.

    Without the UK I think France and Germany could persuade the US to pressure Ukraine into a settlement.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,881

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    That’s because the progressives go around saying “I’m a Lib Dem but you should vote Labour” (or whatever)

    UKIP doesn’t run and the Tories don’t pronounce what voters should do. They just target a pool of voters with messages that appeal to them and absorb their votes
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    "Progressive alliance" really sets my teeth on edge. As a lifelong Tory, I'm voting to boot this sorry excuse for a blue team out, and try to get back to a politics of conviction, compassion etc.

    Now Johnson's lot have eroded all my tribal sensibilities, I'm open to anyone's argument for a way forward in a dramatically different global environment from that of the mid-to-late 20th century.

    But I'm not part of some wishy washy, non-existent "progressive" (whatever the hell that means) "alliance".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,247
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Well - and before that too. India and the -istans; Kim etc.
    Apparently there are FSB officers convinced that the Cambridge 5 were actually brilliant double agents who fooled them completely.

    And that every success they thought they had against the evil British was actually a British trap.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 145

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
    Good point! Or when Lamont came out with little David Cameron holding on to his hand to say 'we are screwed'
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,341
    The likely Republican PA governor candidate Doug Mastriano is a pretty big figure.

    Publicly pro-coup he would have probably found a way to attempt to overturn the PA presidential results in 2020 if he had been in the Governor's Office.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Well - and before that too. India and the -istans; Kim etc.
    Apparently there are FSB officers convinced that the Cambridge 5 were actually brilliant double agents who fooled them completely.

    And that every success they thought they had against the evil British was actually a British trap.
    You can see how it makes a better narrative for the demise of the Soviet Union than "we were an economic basket case and all the people in the Satellites hate us"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,364
    Just noticed this proposal for a cargo drone -

    https://twitter.com/FeWoessner/status/1524871894322798602?cxt=HHwWlICz0ZS6t6kqAAAA

    Hundreds of miles range, 500lb payload. IKea could deliver a kitchen ...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    mwadams said:

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    "Progressive alliance" really sets my teeth on edge. As a lifelong Tory, I'm voting to boot this sorry excuse for a blue team out, and try to get back to a politics of conviction, compassion etc.

    Now Johnson's lot have eroded all my tribal sensibilities, I'm open to anyone's argument for a way forward in a dramatically different global environment from that of the mid-to-late 20th century.

    But I'm not part of some wishy washy, non-existent "progressive" (whatever the hell that means) "alliance".
    I agree, it's a ridiculous self declared moniker a bit like the Integritron declaring himself most honourable. I use it as it's the name chosen by many for such a thing. I certainly don't disagree that many will vote anti Tory on the basis of them being a bit shit not because they have a pompous, unearned view of their own politics
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,756

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Well - and before that too. India and the -istans; Kim etc.
    Apparently there are FSB officers convinced that the Cambridge 5 were actually brilliant double agents who fooled them completely.

    And that every success they thought they had against the evil British was actually a British trap.
    Not sure about now but it does seem to be true that at the time, much of the Cambridge Spies' information was routinely disbelieved and then ignored because it seemed far too good to be true, and also because they never named any British spies in Russia.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,100
    edited May 14

    ClippP said:

    First.

    Spoken like a true LibDem…
    When I posted that, my post was the only one there for some time. And then three others appeared, placed before mine. If this were a race, with betting opportunities, we would need an enquiry. As it is, it doesn't matter in the slightest, except that it provides an excuse for our PB Tories to make snarky comments about the Lib Dems.

    In passing, I gather that Ben Bradshaw (Labour MP for neighbouring Exeter) has said that he expects the Lib Dems to win Tiverton & Honiton.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,801
    Twitter down in Greece. Is it the same elsewhere?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,195
    ydoethur said:

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    The only thing we can be sure of is that if the regime admit to 21 deaths there have been a great many more than that.
    I thought they had their first case the other day
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,291
    TimS said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    The UK is also a near-peer in terms of economic and geopolitical power, it’s notably outspoken on Russia and this is the perfect comic book baddie. They can just about dream of defeating the UK militarily (though only with nukes). The US is just too obviously big and powerful by comparison.
    Backed by NATO support, Finland is just too obviously big and powerful by comparison.

    Russia is going to need a decade of rebuilding an entirely new generation of weaponry to have any offensive capability. And that decade does not start until they have left Ukraine. And a sizeable slice of their seriously depleted hydrocarbon revenues go towards rebuilding Ukraine.

    Until then, the sanctions bite.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,727

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Actually, there might be slightly more to it than that: Russia might still think that the US is ripe for division, and it is geographically a long way away (tm). Russia can only win by knocking the coalition that is ranged against it, both technologically and financially. The US is a mighty force, but from Russia's POV it might be a weak and distant one.

    Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.

    (You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
    There's a very good (but odd) book by Francis Spufford called 'Red Plenty'. It goes into the way the USSR's authoritarian command economy worked poorly (more poorly than the chaotic western capitalism), and also how the USSR utterly kidded itself about its performance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/08/red-plenty-francis-spufford

    (For any techies, his earlier book 'backroom boys' was a superb look at the UK tech industry)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,291

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Well - and before that too. India and the -istans; Kim etc.
    Apparently there are FSB officers convinced that the Cambridge 5 were actually brilliant double agents who fooled them completely.

    And that every success they thought they had against the evil British was actually a British trap.
    Shhhhhh!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
    I think it was the election of John Smith.They'd made hay for years purely on facing Kinnock.
    Soon as an alternative credible PM turned up, the entire USP and rationale for the government continuing disappeared. And deep down I think they all knew it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,756
    Leon said:

    Twitter down in Greece. Is it the same elsewhere?

    I can read Twitter but don't have an account to test posting.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    Leon said:

    Twitter down in Greece. Is it the same elsewhere?

    No, new tweets being made as of 2 minutes ago
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,446
    Leon said:

    Twitter down in Greece. Is it the same elsewhere?

    I thought the Internet seemed somehow cleaner, friendlier, more informed and just better this morning...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,900
    ydoethur said:

    Looks like Kim has let the covid cat out of the bag in NK, that could get very messy very quickly. Not that we will get much by way of hard facts

    The only thing we can be sure of is that if the regime admit to 21 deaths there have been a great many more than that.
    I’m sure they only count ‘officers’, in the official death stats.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
    I think it was the election of John Smith.They'd made hay for years purely on facing Kinnock.
    Soon as an alternative credible PM turned up, the entire USP and rationale for the government continuing disappeared. And deep down I think they all knew it.
    Kinnock was such a hilarious goober. The spitting image morning after sketch of the losing 92 shadow cabinet was just perfect.
    Although I remember my ex being convinced transferring her vote from home to Uni and Southampton Itchen was absolutely the key to Denham winning. She was a Lib Dem and voted Lib Dem but it was something to do with collective good intentions. I loved that daft girl.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,857
    edited May 14
    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
    I think it was the election of John Smith.They'd made hay for years purely on facing Kinnock.
    Soon as an alternative credible PM turned up, the entire USP and rationale for the government continuing disappeared. And deep down I think they all knew it.
    As a Tory I would not have feared a Smith premiership as much as a Kinnock premiership much as I don't fear a Starmer premiership as much as I feared a Corbyn premiership.

    I would not have voted for any of them though but Smith would have won comfortably in 1997 even if not as big a landslide as Blair did
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,688
    What a lovely day. Perfect for sitting in the garden doing nothing.

    (Or WFH in the mind of the Moggster.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,594
    Carnyx said:

    Just noticed this proposal for a cargo drone -

    https://twitter.com/FeWoessner/status/1524871894322798602?cxt=HHwWlICz0ZS6t6kqAAAA

    Hundreds of miles range, 500lb payload. IKea could deliver a kitchen ...

    Wouldn't want to be underneath it when it fails.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    edited May 14

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
    Your post was about the 97/01 result disproving my point. Therefore it has everything to do with LD and Lab popularity as well as hatred of Tories as those were factors at that time.
    I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
    I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    For more on Fetterman, see this Time article. Could be an interesting pick.


    https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/

    "[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;

    and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”

    I think that "showing up and pressing the flesh" is going to be a "rediscovered" campaigning technique. If the problem Dems have is 'connecting' with people then perhaps someone will latch on to promoting candidates that have a good "in person" campaign, and leverage the social media network effects of that.
    Still got to factor the national mood and picture though.
    John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
    I agree - it only takes you so far. And you need a lot of energy for it. Major 92 wanted to win, and had a team energised to win. Major 97 was, famously, "Well, we lost."
    He'd been looking forward to the Oval since about mid 94 I think. When the pear was shaped.
    I often think that the moment the fight really went out of JM was actually on election night 1992, when Chris Patten lost his seat. They won but they lost.
    I think it was the election of John Smith.They'd made hay for years purely on facing Kinnock.
    Soon as an alternative credible PM turned up, the entire USP and rationale for the government continuing disappeared. And deep down I think they all knew it.
    As a Tory I would not have feared a Smith and premiership as much as a Kinnock premiership much as I don't fear a Starmer premiership as much as I feared a Corbyn premiership.

    I would not have voted for any of them though but Smith would have won comfortably in 1997 even if not as big a landslide as Blair did
    Absolutely. Agent Smith done top work for the Conservatives, handing them the 1992 election with his tax raising shadow budget at time when people feeling pinch in their pocket!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,247
    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just noticed this proposal for a cargo drone -

    https://twitter.com/FeWoessner/status/1524871894322798602?cxt=HHwWlICz0ZS6t6kqAAAA

    Hundreds of miles range, 500lb payload. IKea could deliver a kitchen ...

    Wouldn't want to be underneath it when it fails.
    500lb you say

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_82_bomb
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,553
    Interesting thread on Finland:



    Minna Ålander 🌻
    @minna_alander
    Since many people know nothing about Finland, jump on click bait headlines and retweet without checking facts, here a short overview of the things Russia has threatened Finland with so far & what their consequences are/would be:

    https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1525397277577203713


    3. Ending the lease contract of the Saimaa canal (Finland has leased the part of the canal that runs through Russia)

    Finland doesn’t really need it anyways & would end up saving a s*it ton of money from the modernisation of the infrastructure.

    ===

    I had not heard about the Saimaa canal before.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,874

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    The people who really, really hate the current government are FBPE voters, who are very numerous in some constituencies, and very vocal, and very well-informed about tactical voting, but not a particularly large section of the electorate overall.

    That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.

    This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,132
    I wonder what this site would have made of Attlee in 1935-9.

    'A modest little man, with much to be modest about!' was Churchill's description. in 1945.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,874

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."


    It's rather flattering.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842
    Isn’t there anyway DUP can turn up and earn the money they are being paid, delivering help to the hard pressed communities, AND continue their principled stand against Boris Tories Irish Sea border that should be a border between UK and EU where it meets on land? It’s allowing opponents to absolutely lay into their integrity and intelligence 😦
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,364

    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just noticed this proposal for a cargo drone -

    https://twitter.com/FeWoessner/status/1524871894322798602?cxt=HHwWlICz0ZS6t6kqAAAA

    Hundreds of miles range, 500lb payload. IKea could deliver a kitchen ...

    Wouldn't want to be underneath it when it fails.
    500lb you say

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_82_bomb
    Sorry - brain fart again, 800lb payload. Maybe two kitchens.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833
    Sean_F said:

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    The people who really, really hate the current government are FBPE voters, who are very numerous in some constituencies, and very vocal, and very well-informed about tactical voting, but not a particularly large section of the electorate overall.

    That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.

    This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
    Social media certainly skews perceptions. Twitter would make you think the Tories are on 10% in the polls.
    The danger for the Tories is Cost of Living and how it's seen, portrayed and experienced. Partygate effects are probably now baked in.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842
    Sean_F said:

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    The people who really, really hate the current government are FBPE voters, who are very numerous in some constituencies, and very vocal, and very well-informed about tactical voting, but not a particularly large section of the electorate overall.

    That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.

    This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
    Define win.

    Mike Smithsons header said Torys can be largest party and toast at the same time. Hence shows up some posters giving opposition silly difficult hoops to jump through as fake definition of “winning”. Another Mike Smithson header flagged up Tories can lose their majority even without Labour winning very much. As bettors he is asking us not to think of “win” but how fragile and close the Tory position is to losing.

    And makes sense too. It’s a government party out of ideas, short on effective politicians to put into cabinet, and with no decent prime minister anywhere in their parliamentary party they can promote to the electorate.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,842

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
    Your post was about the 97/01 result disproving my point. Therefore it has everything to do with LD and Lab popularity as well as hatred of Tories as those were factors at that time.
    I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
    I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
    You come across as sad and despondent frustrated kind of sad, I would love to stay and put an arm round you, but we are ready to start our long walk now to sort out our hangovers. 🙋‍♀️
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    Sean_F said:

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    The people who really, really hate the current government are FBPE voters, who are very numerous in some constituencies, and very vocal, and very well-informed about tactical voting, but not a particularly large section of the electorate overall.

    That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.

    This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
    Define win.

    Mike Smithsons header said Torys can be largest party and toast at the same time. Hence shows up some posters giving opposition silly difficult hoops to jump through as fake definition of “winning”. Another Mike Smithson header flagged up Tories can lose their majority even without Labour winning very much. As bettors he is asking us not to think of “win” but how fragile and close the Tory position is to losing.

    And makes sense too. It’s a government party out of ideas, short on effective politicians to put into cabinet, and with no decent prime minister anywhere in their parliamentary party they can promote to the electorate.
    Win means form the next Government, whether minority, coalition or majority.
    The extent of that win is a different matter.
    If Labour gained nothing, Tories lost heavily to the LDs and Starmer was PM with a coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, Green, SDLP, PC etc on the same seats for Labour as their worst election since the 30s he'd have 'won' but it would be phyrric. Likewise PM Boris with 315 seats minority administration would have 'won' and wish he hadn't
    There are degrees of winning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,767
    edited May 14

    Isn’t there anyway DUP can turn up and earn the money they are being paid, delivering help to the hard pressed communities, AND continue their principled stand against Boris Tories Irish Sea border that should be a border between UK and EU where it meets on land? It’s allowing opponents to absolutely lay into their integrity and intelligence 😦

    They are an easy target, I'm afraid. Moaning on and on about the Irish Sea border having rejected the May deal which was specifically designed to prevent one.

    Brexiters are often not the brightest - that's priced in - but these guys do seem to rather stand out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,364
    edited May 14
    kinabalu said:

    Isn’t there anyway DUP can turn up and earn the money they are being paid, delivering help to the hard pressed communities, AND continue their principled stand against Boris Tories Irish Sea border that should be a border between UK and EU where it meets on land? It’s allowing opponents to absolutely lay into their integrity and intelligence 😦

    They are an easy target, I'm afraid. Moaning on and on about the Irish Sea border having rejected the May deal which was specifically designed to prevent one.

    Brexiters are often not the brightest - that's priced in - but these guys do seem to rather stand out.
    ...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
    Your post was about the 97/01 result disproving my point. Therefore it has everything to do with LD and Lab popularity as well as hatred of Tories as those were factors at that time.
    I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
    I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
    You come across as sad and despondent frustrated kind of sad, I would love to stay and put an arm round you, but we are ready to start our long walk now to sort out our hangovers. 🙋‍♀️
    Enjoy. I'm not really interested in how I come across to you though. That's your look out and this isn't therapy.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,127
    ohnotnow said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
    Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,741

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
    Your post was about the 97/01 result disproving my point. Therefore it has everything to do with LD and Lab popularity as well as hatred of Tories as those were factors at that time.
    I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
    I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
    Is this "weak, bland and inconsequential " guy the same one which the Labour Left complain about ruthlessly and determinedly shutting them out of influence in the Labour Party?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    I wonder what this site would have made of Attlee in 1935-9.

    'A modest little man, with much to be modest about!' was Churchill's description. in 1945.

    Interesting thought! Although they were of course two completely different worlds viewed in completely different ways too.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,833

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
    Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.

    Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.

    Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
    Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs.
    And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
    Lots and lots and lots of laughs. 😂 Tory’s down at 165 seats and Lib Dems high 40s SAYS HELLO!
    Those were fairly unique circumstances. That's why I qualified it with 'normal circumstances'
    Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
    I dont rule that out
    It’s got zilch to do with labour or Libdem popularity going through roof, Boris Tories merely need to be hated (you can tick that box already) and Starmer and Davey not feared at all in running the country.

    I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
    Your post was about the 97/01 result disproving my point. Therefore it has everything to do with LD and Lab popularity as well as hatred of Tories as those were factors at that time.
    I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
    I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
    Is this "weak, bland and inconsequential " guy the same one which the Labour Left complain about ruthlessly and determinedly shutting them out of influence in the Labour Party?
    If his name is Starmer, yes. It's my opinion of his potential as PM, not what he has or hasn't done about the loony left. Kinnock faced down the loonies and he was similarly useless otherwise.
    Other opinions are available.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    India bans all wheat exports after a heatwave.
    That won't help with cost of living here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    boulay said:

    ohnotnow said:

    mwadams said:

    Whatever you say about Russia they are doing a great deal for our global prestige.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586

    Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."

    Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
    Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
    That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
    The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.

    Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….

    May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
    Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
    Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
    It goes back to the overthrow of Mossadegh in 1953 following his outrageous plan to nationalise oil.
    This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy.
    They have a point in that respect.
This discussion has been closed.