Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."
Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.
Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….
May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
It goes back to the overthrow of Mossadegh in 1953 following his outrageous plan to nationalise oil. This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy. They have a point in that respect.
Interesting header. One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats. The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."
Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.
Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….
May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
It goes back to the overthrow of Mossadegh in 1953 following his outrageous plan to nationalise oil. This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy. They have a point in that respect.
Even further than that, I think.
Well maybe. But that was the clincher. There's a direct line through the overthrowing of a democratically elected leader to autocratic Monarchy to Theocracy. Although Mossadegh losing the Ayatollahs was an ironic contributor to the success of the Coup.
There’s no way of knowing at this time just how much influence Trump will have on the mid terms .
Candidates pushing his conspiracy theory re the 2020 election will surely be named and shamed by the Democrats with attack ads filling the airwaves .
Especially pertinent to governor races who have huge powers in certifying elections .
The house however looks like it will go GOP but the Senate is much more difficult to forecast .
Are those named truly shamed by being attacked so? The level of support for the key figure involved suggests most Republican voters do not care, and, and there aren't that many swings.
I wonder whether the UK will ban exports of wheat and rape seed this summer. From my limited knowledge the UK is essentially self sufficient for both in a basic sense (though not for specific heavier protein based wheats for specialist breads).
It would be a very easy way for the government to have a "UK first" policy to help the cost of living crisis but potentially dynamite for international trade as other nations would likely follow suit and big grain importers would find life very difficult.
Interesting header. One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats. The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
Agree with that so it does add to the Trump effect . Dems need to fire up their voters to turnout and the abortion issue will help there .
In the past Democrats haven’t stressed enough the importance of the state legislatures and governors . They’re the ones that will decide abortion issues .
On the face of it there are huge headwinds for the Dems this year but the Supreme Court aswell as Trump could still make the mid terms much more competitive.
Interesting header. One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats. The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
Possibly but I'm not convinced that those for whom this is a red line aren't already committed Democrat voters. The polling splits, especially when 'some limitations on abortion' are produced are relatively even much like the national picture (certainly its not an election swinger on its own looking at figures). It will fire up the pro choice vote but they seem to be already engaged and heavily Democrat anyway. That said, small net positive is certainly possible, I'd just be personally wary of relying on it for any betting opportunity.
There’s no way of knowing at this time just how much influence Trump will have on the mid terms .
Candidates pushing his conspiracy theory re the 2020 election will surely be named and shamed by the Democrats with attack ads filling the airwaves .
Especially pertinent to governor races who have huge powers in certifying elections .
The house however looks like it will go GOP but the Senate is much more difficult to forecast .
Are those named truly shamed by being attacked so? The level of support for the key figure involved suggests most Republican voters do not care, and, and there aren't that many swings.
The election will be decided in the suburbs where the voters are more swingy and there’s still enough of those who could swing many races .
I wonder whether the UK will ban exports of wheat and rape seed this summer. From my limited knowledge the UK is essentially self sufficient for both in a basic sense (though not for specific heavier protein based wheats for specialist breads).
It would be a very easy way for the government to have a "UK first" policy to help the cost of living crisis but potentially dynamite for international trade as other nations would likely follow suit and big grain importers would find life very difficult.
Not advisable to be UK first on food when we import near 50%. Plus the wheat we need is generally the bread specific stuff.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
So. We don't really import from India. But the world price will rise again. Not good news. But much, much worse for impoverished countries.
The last time we saw global food scarcity it kicked off the Arab spring. We haven’t even seen the beginning of this story.
The fallout from the idiotic decisions around lockdowns will end up with more dying from famine than the virus would have killed. I remember the criticism from the western world when India refused lockdowns for the the second than third waves of the virus but in retrospect the decision from the Indian government is correct. Imagine how bad things would be if the government had a second and third lockdown, there's would simply be people dying of starvation over the next year.
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
So. We don't really import from India. But the world price will rise again. Not good news. But much, much worse for impoverished countries.
The last time we saw global food scarcity it kicked off the Arab spring. We haven’t even seen the beginning of this story.
The fallout from the idiotic decisions around lockdowns will end up with more dying from famine than the virus would have killed. I remember the criticism from the western world when India refused lockdowns for the the second than third waves of the virus but in retrospect the decision from the Indian government is correct. Imagine how bad things would be if the government had a second and third lockdown, there's would simply be people dying of starvation over the next year.
Yes, agreed. Covid (like Brexit!) isn’t over by a long shot.
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
I believe this was a feature of 97, yes.
It seems to me that our polling is not fit for the job. The ebbs and flows of “won’t vote” is critical to understanding what’s going on.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
I believe this was a feature of 97, yes.
It seems to me that our polling is not fit for the job. The ebbs and flows of “won’t vote” is critical to understanding what’s going on.
The get brexit done vote is a mysterious beast who's movements must be tracked. Even if its back to its lair for more decades of slumber. Or is it awake and now committed?
During the Bush and Obama eras I felt like I was very much in tune with, and part of, coastal urban educated liberal American culture.
Since the Trump era, I've felt increasingly alienated from that culture.
This is not because I've become more conservative; I haven't.
Nor is it because liberals started supporting political positions I disagree with. There was always some political stuff I disagreed with, and there still is, but overall not a huge amount.
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
Latest Yougov though is Labour 38%, Tories 33%, LDs 12%.
So an 8% swing from Tory to Labour and a 5% swing from Tory to LD since the general election of 2019 even accounting for Tories who will stay home
So. We don't really import from India. But the world price will rise again. Not good news. But much, much worse for impoverished countries.
The last time we saw global food scarcity it kicked off the Arab spring. We haven’t even seen the beginning of this story.
The fallout from the idiotic decisions around lockdowns will end up with more dying from famine than the virus would have killed. I remember the criticism from the western world when India refused lockdowns for the the second than third waves of the virus but in retrospect the decision from the Indian government is correct. Imagine how bad things would be if the government had a second and third lockdown, there's would simply be people dying of starvation over the next year.
Yes, agreed. Covid (like Brexit!) isn’t over by a long shot.
What's extremely galling is that none of those people who lead the criticism of the Indian decision or the UK decision to reopen have apologised for being so extremely wrong. There are too many scientists who were captured by idiotic virtue signalling around "must save every life, must blame governments for anyone who dies from COVID" without thinking through the consequences of their agenda. It was plainly obvious that decisions on lockdowns would lead to global shortages of basic goods, people on PB and all across the City have been saying it for months.
I hope that we learn the lessons from this and next time governments doesn't just take advice from science and take a much wider view including the economy and ensuring future prosperity even if it means making sacrifices today.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
The dems problem will be holding that middle ground message. The defeated Senate bill was trying to enshrine full term abortion rights.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
Indeed, the Democrats will use the abortion issue to drive up turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
I believe this was a feature of 97, yes.
It seems to me that our polling is not fit for the job. The ebbs and flows of “won’t vote” is critical to understanding what’s going on.
I'm not sure that's right, as turnout in 1997 was higher than at any GE since then. If disillusioned Tories weren't voting, you'd expect turnout to be lower I'd have thought.
An important thing to remember is a significant portion of GOP voters are QAnon believers.
They truly believe that the Democrats are part of an international satanic pedophile cult. As a result no anti-democracy action proposed by a GOP candidate can be too extreme for them.
The irony of course is that it is the GOP that is rife with pedophiles with numerous recent convictions of senior GOP politicians.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
Indeed, the Democrats will use the abortion issue to drive up turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
The mid terms are looking more interesting than they did a few months ago and the suburban vote is key , we could have a scenario where the GOP take the House but the Dems actually increase their seats in the Senate .
re. the Saimaa canal which Finland leases from Russia for an exit to the Gulf of Finland. There's a species of fresh water seal unique to the Saimaa lake system which is severely endangered (only 400 left), the Saimaa ringed seal. per Wiki: They have lived in complete isolation from other ringed seal species for around 9,500 years and have diverged into a morphologically and ecologically different subspecies of ringed seal.[3] The population is descended from ringed seals that were separated from the rest when the land rose after the last ice age. This seal, along with the Ladoga seal and the Baikal seal, is one of the few living freshwater seals.
Interesting header. One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats. The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
Possibly but I'm not convinced that those for whom this is a red line aren't already committed Democrat voters. The polling splits, especially when 'some limitations on abortion' are produced are relatively even much like the national picture (certainly its not an election swinger on its own looking at figures). It will fire up the pro choice vote but they seem to be already engaged and heavily Democrat anyway. That said, small net positive is certainly possible, I'd just be personally wary of relying on it for any betting opportunity.
Anecdotally at least, there are a load of very angry women who until now we're not regular or reliable Democratic voters. I'm not assuming anything, but it is a factor, and bears watching. My guess, FWIW, is that it will become more not less significant.
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Tactical voting has a 'sweet spot' at a relatively low level (very low single digit swing effect at a finger in the air guess). The more obvious it becomes the more it provokes a screw you backlash often amongst the disinterested or 'protest voters' in normal circs. And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
The people who really, really hate the current government are FBPE voters, who are very numerous in some constituencies, and very vocal, and very well-informed about tactical voting, but not a particularly large section of the electorate overall.
That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.
This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
Define win.
Mike Smithsons header said Torys can be largest party and toast at the same time. Hence shows up some posters giving opposition silly difficult hoops to jump through as fake definition of “winning”. Another Mike Smithson header flagged up Tories can lose their majority even without Labour winning very much. As bettors he is asking us not to think of “win” but how fragile and close the Tory position is to losing.
And makes sense too. It’s a government party out of ideas, short on effective politicians to put into cabinet, and with no decent prime minister anywhere in their parliamentary party they can promote to the electorate.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
Indeed, the Democrats will use the abortion issue to drive up turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
The mid terms are looking more interesting than they did a few months ago and the suburban vote is key , we could have a scenario where the GOP take the House but the Dems actually increase their seats in the Senate .
I'm leaning to GOP control of both at the moment and 2 years of gridlock and vengeance impeachment proceedings
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
Indeed, the Democrats will use the abortion issue to drive up turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
Those are the places where restrictions will hit hardest - note the reduction in the number of PA clinics in recent years. It might well switch a few otherwise reliably Republican votes.
Interesting header. One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats. The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
Possibly but I'm not convinced that those for whom this is a red line aren't already committed Democrat voters. The polling splits, especially when 'some limitations on abortion' are produced are relatively even much like the national picture (certainly its not an election swinger on its own looking at figures). It will fire up the pro choice vote but they seem to be already engaged and heavily Democrat anyway. That said, small net positive is certainly possible, I'd just be personally wary of relying on it for any betting opportunity.
Anecdotally at least, there are a load of very angry women who until now we're not regular or reliable Democratic voters. I'm not assuming anything, but it is a factor, and bears watching. My guess, FWIW, is that it will become more not less significant.
It does bear watching yep. I'm leaning towards 2nd amendment effects - generates lots of heat but is not too impactful on results as the most enraged are generally in camp already. But I'll let the evidence steer me as we approach
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
I believe this was a feature of 97, yes.
It seems to me that our polling is not fit for the job. The ebbs and flows of “won’t vote” is critical to understanding what’s going on.
There were also a number of "vote swap" schemes in 1997 - some national, other informal and local.
IIRC There was one between Ed Davey's Kingston & Surbiton constituency and another local constituency, for example.
Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."
Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.
Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….
May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
It goes back to the overthrow of Mossadegh in 1953 following his outrageous plan to nationalise oil. This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy. They have a point in that respect.
Even further than that, I think.
Yes. The UK and Russia divided Iran into spheres of influence pre WWI, and occupied parts of the country in WWII.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Are there any books you'd recommend on that?
Not yet. It's really just general history I'm reading at the moment.
If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
Labour can't not campaign nationally. The national campaign makes far more impact than anything locally at a General Election.
Mike Smithson is absolutely spot on. Voters who want Tories out this time arn’t stupid people. The anti Tory alliance will know exactly what they need to do in their constituency come the moment to do it.
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
Starting point: the people who want the Tories out next time are largely populated by people who want the Tories out EVERY time. They, for the most part, already tactically vote. Hence you have the spectacle of OGH voting in Bedford for the party of the for all intents and purposes anti-Semite enabler Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
Yes, differential turnout is going to be critical if the election is tight, and it almost certainly will be. Most pollsters publish Certainty to Vote findings, and Labour have tended to beat the Conservatives. However, there may be signs that that is changing, so I’d keep an eye on those numbers.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
The same rule also needs to apply if Sinn Fein decide to flounce, as they did in 2017. But, I agree in principle.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
The same rule also needs to apply if Sinn Fein decide to flounce, as they did in 2017. But, I agree in principle.
Absolutely. Let the SDLP do their thing. Apart from anything else we want/need a system that disincentivises obstructionism.
Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."
Suggests Biden is not being taken very seriously in Moscow if they need to big up big dog as the Uber anti Ruskie
Suggests a "divide your enemies against each other" approach to me. Feed British ego and arrogance, diminish the US, France, Germany. Encourage petty squabbles.
That will no doubt be part of it yeah, but so will smelling weakness perceived or real in Washington and playing on that
The is a very long Soviet history of seeing the U.K. as an especially big threat - you see it in propaganda going way back. All the way to the Bolsheviks.
Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….
May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
Iran is apparently similarly obsessed with the UK being behind lots of plots, coup's, sabotage etc. I remember hearing an interview with an ex-Foreign Secretary who said the joke in the Foreign Office was that Iran was the only country that still thought of the UK as a superpower.
Iran does have a weird belief in the UK’s hand in everything. I remember reading that a common refrain when anything goes wrong is that the “English” are behind it, so when you trip over a stone someone will say “the English put it there”. Quite amusing really.
It goes back to the overthrow of Mossadegh in 1953 following his outrageous plan to nationalise oil. This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy. They have a point in that respect.
Even further than that, I think.
Yes. The UK and Russia divided Iran into spheres of influence pre WWI, and occupied parts of the country in WWII.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Did they come close? The Russians only advanced as far as Galicia (SW Ukraine/SE Poland) on the Austrian front, and western Armenia (eastern Turkey) on the Ottoman front.
A critical factor is which Labour Party will turn up at the election. In my mind's eye I can see Labour possibly getting it right and maximising swing votes and Tory abstentions and even getting a majority. I can also very plausibly see them getting it wrong when their policies are examined in detail during a campaign. They are quite capable of losing 5-10% or even more via their manifesto and statements by MPs and shadow ministers.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
Indeed, the Democrats will use the abortion issue to drive up turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
The mid terms are looking more interesting than they did a few months ago and the suburban vote is key , we could have a scenario where the GOP take the House but the Dems actually increase their seats in the Senate .
I'm leaning to GOP control of both at the moment and 2 years of gridlock and vengeance impeachment proceedings
The Dems are defending 4 seats in likely close races in states won by Biden , the GOP are defending 2 in Biden states . No Dem seats are up for grabs in states won by Trump .
The best chance for a Dems pick up is Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
Less chance North Carolina and Ohio but not impossible.
Best chance for GOP pick ups are Arizona , Georgia and Nevada .
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
Lack of demand.
Yes. My suspicion/hypothesis is lack of demand + “big agri” churning out crap.
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
In comparison with New York, it’s excellent. It just not as good (according to the fruit broker) as Paris, and probably the larger Italian cities.
I’ve become a bit obsessed with the economics around food, hah.
The other thing relevant to the UK is the amazing cheapness of food, at least until very recently.
Seems to be a combination of CAP + exceptionally competitive supermarket sector.
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
Fwiw, a South African colleague used to complain that all their best produce was exported.
A critical factor is which Labour Party will turn up at the election. In my mind's eye I can see Labour possibly getting it right and maximising swing votes and Tory abstentions and even getting a majority. I can also very plausibly see them getting it wrong when their policies are examined in detail during a campaign. They are quite capable of losing 5-10% or even more via their manifesto and statements by MPs and shadow ministers.
And it also depends on how much the media choose to highlight the vengeance operations of Corbyn and co; who I have *no doubt* will be working hard to ensure Starmer does worse than they did in 2017.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Are there any books you'd recommend on that?
Not yet. It's really just general history I'm reading at the moment.
As a very tangential comment I've been thinking of late that the food discussions on PB are sometimes reminiscent of Hasek's novel The Good Soldier Svejk - the Austro-Hungarian (Czech, more specifically) soldiers trundling across the plains of Eastern Europe in their troop-train boxcars en route to the Eastern Front and arguing about how to cook pork crackling while the world goes to pot around them (not that they can do anything about it).
Apparently there is a tendency to have Svejk - themed restaurants all over the place these days, complete with graphics lifted from the original drawings for the books. No idea what that is about.
This has made me wonder if there is a decent film ...
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
Fwiw, a South African colleague used to complain that all their best produce was exported.
This the the opposite of the “you know, the best stuff isn’t exported - they keep it to themselves” we sometimes hear from travellers coming back from, say, Italy.
I’d be fascinated to know which narrative is true in which places and for what products. No one is refusing to export Lafite, for example, but does France keep other things to herself? I suspect it’s all about money really. If it’s worth more to export, it will be exported. Not as romantic a notion though….
When I posted that, my post was the only one there for some time. And then three others appeared, placed before mine. If this were a race, with betting opportunities, we would need an enquiry. As it is, it doesn't matter in the slightest, except that it provides an excuse for our PB Tories to make snarky comments about the Lib Dems.
In passing, I gather that Ben Bradshaw (Labour MP for neighbouring Exeter) has said that he expects the Lib Dems to win Tiverton & Honiton.
It matters so little you posted a whole paragraph setting the record straight…
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
I think one way is to go hunting for organics, though New York is a big place Do they have box schemes?
During the Bush and Obama eras I felt like I was very much in tune with, and part of, coastal urban educated liberal American culture.
Since the Trump era, I've felt increasingly alienated from that culture.
This is not because I've become more conservative; I haven't.
Nor is it because liberals started supporting political positions I disagree with. There was always some political stuff I disagreed with, and there still is, but overall not a huge amount.
I think this is 80% due to social media, which has (a) encouraged a performative political culture, (b) made other people's irritating behaviour harder to ignore and (c) led to a greater conformity of opinion within groups and polarisation between groups. Plus 10% Trump, whose election was such a traumatic event for American liberals (who have a much more optimistic view of their country than their British counterparts do of theirs) that some of them went bonkers. And 10% this guy getting old and finding people younger than him annoying. FWIW as a grumpy centre left forty something a lot of this stuff irritates me too, but I think it is essentially harmless and pretty easy to block out.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
The US has a very powerful 'Farm lobby' and therefor big tariffs on food imports, making it impractical to import a lot of foods. This makes the farmers a tiny bit better off and reduces the quality and chose to the rest of the population.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Are there any books you'd recommend on that?
Not yet. It's really just general history I'm reading at the moment.
As a very tangential comment I've been thinking of late that the food discussions on PB are sometimes reminiscent of Hasek's novel The Good Soldier Svejk - the Austro-Hungarian (Czech, more specifically) soldiers trundling across the plains of Eastern Europe in their troop-train boxcars en route to the Eastern Front and arguing about how to cook pork crackling while the world goes to pot around them (not that they can do anything about it).
Apparently there is a tendency to have Svejk - themed restaurants all over the place these days, complete with graphics lifted from the original drawings for the books. No idea what that is about.
This has made me wonder if there is a decent film ...
A voting age limit (life expectancy minus whatever the bottom limit is, so 80 minus 18). I’d be up for giving parents votes for their kids too. So two kids, two extra votes
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
The US has a very powerful 'Farm lobby' and therefor big tariffs on food imports, making it impractical to import a lot of foods. This makes the farmers a tiny bit better off and reduces the quality and chose to the rest of the population.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
I think one way is to go hunting for organics, though New York is a big place Do they have box schemes?
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
Fwiw, a South African colleague used to complain that all their best produce was exported.
In Pennsylvania 8 out of 10 of those polled said abortion should remain legal . The GOP in the state legislature tried to push to ban abortion even in the case of incest or rape .
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
The dems problem will be holding that middle ground message. The defeated Senate bill was trying to enshrine full term abortion rights.
There’s a lot of extremists on both sides of the debate, and they all sound bonkers to people more used to the more nuanced debates we get elsewhere in the world on this subject.
Some of the more ‘liberal’ bills give the impression of being pro-abortion, rather than pro-choice. They can come across (to a centrist) that abortion is wonderful and we should be having as many as possible.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
The US has a very powerful 'Farm lobby' and therefor big tariffs on food imports, making it impractical to import a lot of foods. This makes the farmers a tiny bit better off and reduces the quality and chose to the rest of the population.
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Interesting. I'm pretty happy with the quality, variety and price of fresh produce available in London. It's certainly better than anywhere else I've ever livedin that regard.
Fwiw, a South African colleague used to complain that all their best produce was exported.
This the the opposite of the “you know, the best stuff isn’t exported - they keep it to themselves” we sometimes hear from travellers coming back from, say, Italy.
I’d be fascinated to know which narrative is true in which places and for what products. No one is refusing to export Lafite, for example, but does France keep other things to herself? I suspect it’s all about money really. If it’s worth more to export, it will be exported. Not as romantic a notion though….
We used to send all our fabulous Langoustine to Paris.
A critical factor is which Labour Party will turn up at the election. In my mind's eye I can see Labour possibly getting it right and maximising swing votes and Tory abstentions and even getting a majority. I can also very plausibly see them getting it wrong when their policies are examined in detail during a campaign. They are quite capable of losing 5-10% or even more via their manifesto and statements by MPs and shadow ministers.
The big natural advantage the Tories have over Labour is immigration, where the left just cannot help themselves take a "as many immigrants as possible" position. The Tories have done a good job ending unskilled immigration, but they have opened up low skilled immigration a lot, which undermines them. If they put up the income/salary thresholds to somewhere in the mid-30s they would have a very strong story to tell.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
The US has a very powerful 'Farm lobby' and therefor big tariffs on food imports, making it impractical to import a lot of foods. This makes the farmers a tiny bit better off and reduces the quality and chose to the rest of the population.
But aren’t imports from Mexico tarriff-free? With Mexico, California, and Florida, you would think there would be good stuff.
America does very decent potatoes. A bag of idaho potatoes from Costco is a treat. Much more expensive than the UK though.
Sometimes american food is almost mystifyingly expensive - $4 for a sliced loaf, $3 for a 50p packet of biscuits, for example.
Big agri pumps out commoditised crap at high volume, and is protected behind steep tariffs.
The average farm size in the US is 444 acres, compared with 69 in France.
Add that to an undiscerning market…
And prioritising produce that survives transportation, long shelf life, and uniform appearance. We have the same problem here, if you don't have access to good local producers, and the ability to pay high prices.
A critical factor is which Labour Party will turn up at the election. In my mind's eye I can see Labour possibly getting it right and maximising swing votes and Tory abstentions and even getting a majority. I can also very plausibly see them getting it wrong when their policies are examined in detail during a campaign. They are quite capable of losing 5-10% or even more via their manifesto and statements by MPs and shadow ministers.
The big natural advantage the Tories have over Labour is immigration, where the left just cannot help themselves take a "as many immigrants as possible" position. The Tories have done a good job ending unskilled immigration, but they have opened up low skilled immigration a lot, which undermines them. If they put up the income/salary thresholds to somewhere in the mid-30s they would have a very strong story to tell.
This also applies to family migration. You can see from the numbers from Pakistan how they declined substantially under May and now its taken off again.
Would a better answer for Northern Ireland be a government that requires a 60% or two thirds majority rather than formal power sharing?
Perhaps best to keep it simple - the province has enough fiddling already. 50% plus 1 is sufficient. Like any normal polity. Which it will never become if any party is allowed a veto. Bear in mind that a party with 34% or 40% could cause a block under your scheme.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Are there any books you'd recommend on that?
Not yet. It's really just general history I'm reading at the moment.
As a very tangential comment I've been thinking of late that the food discussions on PB are sometimes reminiscent of Hasek's novel The Good Soldier Svejk - the Austro-Hungarian (Czech, more specifically) soldiers trundling across the plains of Eastern Europe in their troop-train boxcars en route to the Eastern Front and arguing about how to cook pork crackling while the world goes to pot around them (not that they can do anything about it).
Apparently there is a tendency to have Svejk - themed restaurants all over the place these days, complete with graphics lifted from the original drawings for the books. No idea what that is about.
This has made me wonder if there is a decent film ...
I’m convinced there must be a strong connection between The Good Soldier Švejk and Sweden’s iconic comic soldier character 91:an Karlsson (and the Norwegian spinoff 91 Stomperud). And indeed with the American novel Catch-22 and other works.
The Good Soldier Švejk dates from the early 1920s:
When I posted that, my post was the only one there for some time. And then three others appeared, placed before mine. If this were a race, with betting opportunities, we would need an enquiry. As it is, it doesn't matter in the slightest, except that it provides an excuse for our PB Tories to make snarky comments about the Lib Dems.
In passing, I gather that Ben Bradshaw (Labour MP for neighbouring Exeter) has said that he expects the Lib Dems to win Tiverton & Honiton.
It matters so little you posted a whole paragraph setting the record straight… 😂😂
😁😁 Wrong again, Mr Waters. The reason we do it is because OGH encouraged us to do so, many moons ago. It was to test the working of the system. It seems to me that the system is not working entirely as it should.
When I posted that, my post was the only one there for some time. And then three others appeared, placed before mine. If this were a race, with betting opportunities, we would need an enquiry. As it is, it doesn't matter in the slightest, except that it provides an excuse for our PB Tories to make snarky comments about the Lib Dems.
In passing, I gather that Ben Bradshaw (Labour MP for neighbouring Exeter) has said that he expects the Lib Dems to win Tiverton & Honiton.
It matters so little you posted a whole paragraph setting the record straight… 😂😂
😁😁 Wrong again, Mr Waters. The reason we do it is because OGH encouraged us to do so, many moons ago. It was to test the working of the system. It seems to me that the system is not working entirely as it should.
The point is you need one comment before the Vanilla-types can access the thread. First is as good as anything, although it is cheating a bit to then go back and edit in ten paragraphs of erudite comment.
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Set a date for NI independence within a UN peace keeping framework, 10 years from now? and within which the NI people as a whole can then have a series of dialogues and votes over the various choices over self determination of their future, overseen by the UN.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
I thought the Good Friday Agreement was sacrosanct?
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
My wife was just complaining to me again about the quality of fresh fruit and vegetables in New York.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
The US has a very powerful 'Farm lobby' and therefor big tariffs on food imports, making it impractical to import a lot of foods. This makes the farmers a tiny bit better off and reduces the quality and chose to the rest of the population.
But aren’t imports from Mexico tarriff-free? With Mexico, California, and Florida, you would think there would be good stuff.
America does very decent potatoes. A bag of idaho potatoes from Costco is a treat. Much more expensive than the UK though.
Sometimes american food is almost mystifyingly expensive - $4 for a sliced loaf, $3 for a 50p packet of biscuits, for example.
Big agri pumps out commoditised crap at high volume, and is protected behind steep tariffs.
The average farm size in the US is 444 acres, compared with 69 in France.
Add that to an undiscerning market…
When I was in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago I tried to cobble together a decent picnic from a supermarket, that I could eat in my hotel room.
Nothing fancy: some nice cheese, pukka salami and ham, decent bread, good tomatoes, spring onions, fruit, bottle of red
Something you could do in almost any British supermarket above the level of an Aldi for about £15-£20
I tracked down a big local Louisiana supermarket which seemed to be halfway between a M&S and Wholefoods.
Everything was decidedly average, the salami was rubbish, the bread barely edible AND it cost me $50. Over £40
Might as well have had oysters in the French Quarter. Again
Britain is very well served by its supermarkets and America is downright strange when it comes to food. Restaurant food in Louisiana is very often excellent so I just don’t get it
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
Are there any books you'd recommend on that?
Not yet. It's really just general history I'm reading at the moment.
As a very tangential comment I've been thinking of late that the food discussions on PB are sometimes reminiscent of Hasek's novel The Good Soldier Svejk - the Austro-Hungarian (Czech, more specifically) soldiers trundling across the plains of Eastern Europe in their troop-train boxcars en route to the Eastern Front and arguing about how to cook pork crackling while the world goes to pot around them (not that they can do anything about it).
Apparently there is a tendency to have Svejk - themed restaurants all over the place these days, complete with graphics lifted from the original drawings for the books. No idea what that is about.
This has made me wonder if there is a decent film ...
I’m convinced there must be a strong connection between The Good Soldier Švejk and Sweden’s iconic comic soldier character 91:an Karlsson (and the Norwegian spinoff 91 Stomperud). And indeed with the American novel Catch-22 and other works.
The Good Soldier Švejk dates from the early 1920s:
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
I thought the Good Friday Agreement was sacrosanct?
The GFA and the specifics of the power sharing mechanics are distinct; the latter was last amended in the St Andrew’s agreement.
Unfortunately the power sharing arrangement might now be a problem for Northern Ireland. If the Unionists are top dog they get the benefit of having the first minister. Sinn Fein know that the alternative to power sharing is direct rule from Westminster which I think we can all agree they don't want. But what of the DUP? Is direct rule from Westminster such a bad thing if the alternative is a Sinn Fein led Assembly?
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
Given that Unionists and Nationalists are both well short of a majority, the answer must be to end compulsory power sharing. If the DUP wish to go into opposition, then they can do so.
The DUP don’t want to go into opposition. They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
I thought the Good Friday Agreement was sacrosanct?
The GFA and the specifics of the power sharing mechanics are distinct; the latter was last amended in the St Andrew’s agreement.
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
I supposed he calculated that support for Alba had bottomed out.
Alba's error was Change UKesque, not standing in the constituency part of the Holyrood election like Change not getting in on the locals. The SGreens were already there as an alternate for list purposes for nationalists. Then not standing in the by election nor any council by elections, they seemed to crave irrelevance and got it. I guess they might pick up disaffected Nats if no referendum occurs if they can hobble on till then. Edit - just noticed I completely missed the joke there. I'm very clever, honest.
Kamran Butt: Most successful Alba election candidate defects to SNP
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
I supposed he calculated that support for Alba had bottomed out.
It probably doesn't mean much - switching parties seems quite derriere these days.
Though Butt may find he has little in common with the gender-warriors of the SNP mainstream. One can only wonder how long it will be before we begin to see cracks.
According to an Italian fruit merchant I once met, the city with the very best fresh produce is Paris.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Similar story with seafood in Spain: apparently all the freshly landed catch is trucked straight from Galicia, Asturias and the Med ports in the early hours to Madrid where the main wholesale markets are, then shipped back out to the rest of the country. So the freshest fish is in Madrid.
Comments
I'm not underplaying the specific issue of the border/protocol but the power sharing arrangement has collapsed before. Might it be the case that the DUP's reasons for not wanting to sit in Stormont may go beyond the protocol?
I do wonder if we need a fundamental re-think of Northern Ireland politics. Admittedly an increasing number of the people there no longer identify as Nationalist or Unionist. But the indefinite financial subsidy coming from Great Britain doesn't exactly create a sense of urgency to reform.
One thing not mentioned is Roe v Wade. I think this will be a very significant issue come November - and will probably have a small positive net effect for the Democrats.
The Republican state Congress wants to increase restrictions.
https://www.ukflourmillers.org/importsexports
Some specific info:
https://www.ukflourmillers.org/post/statement-on-uk-wheat-supply-in-light-of-current-situation-in-ukraine
But that was the clincher.
There's a direct line through the overthrowing of a democratically elected leader to autocratic Monarchy to Theocracy.
Although Mossadegh losing the Ayatollahs was an ironic contributor to the success of the Coup.
Candidates pushing his conspiracy theory re the 2020 election will surely be named and shamed by the Democrats with attack ads filling the airwaves .
Especially pertinent to governor races who have huge powers in certifying elections .
The house however looks like it will go GOP but the Senate is much more difficult to forecast .
It would be a very easy way for the government to have a "UK first" policy to help the cost of living crisis but potentially dynamite for international trade as other nations would likely follow suit and big grain importers would find life very difficult.
But the world price will rise again.
Not good news. But much, much worse for impoverished countries.
In the past Democrats haven’t stressed enough the importance of the state legislatures and governors . They’re the ones that will decide abortion issues .
On the face of it there are huge headwinds for the Dems this year but the Supreme Court aswell as Trump could still make the mid terms much more competitive.
That said, small net positive is certainly possible, I'd just be personally wary of relying on it for any betting opportunity.
I know why the UK has pretty good produce - it imports 70% of fruit and veg from Europe - but the US has the full North American bounty at its disposal.
Mystifying.
Is effectively centre of the entire European food market and gets first dibs on best produce due to size of population / most discerning customers.
Labour's best chance of power is not the tactical voter. It is the Tory in 2019 who won't vote at all in 2024.
It seems to me that our polling is not fit for the job. The ebbs and flows of “won’t vote” is critical to understanding what’s going on.
Most people think there should be some restrictions so the Dems have to ensure the message is we don’t want a free for all on abortion but the GOP are trying to ban this even in cases which are horrendous for women .
They also need to broaden the attack on the GOP to make this an issue of what’s next in terms of rights being dismantled .
During the Bush and Obama eras I felt like I was very much in tune with, and part of, coastal urban educated liberal American culture.
Since the Trump era, I've felt increasingly alienated from that culture.
This is not because I've become more conservative; I haven't.
Nor is it because liberals started supporting political positions I disagree with. There was always some political stuff I disagreed with, and there still is, but overall not a huge amount.
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1524834004918185984
So an 8% swing from Tory to Labour and a 5% swing from Tory to LD since the general election of 2019 even accounting for Tories who will stay home
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1525041915716112384?s=20&t=G4hfDahx8CpflW66MKK8yA
I hope that we learn the lessons from this and next time governments doesn't just take advice from science and take a much wider view including the economy and ensuring future prosperity even if it means making sacrifices today.
Only in small towns and rural Pennsylvania which are always strong GOP anyway will there be much support for a complete ban on abortion
They truly believe that the Democrats are part of an international satanic pedophile cult. As a result no anti-democracy action proposed by a GOP candidate can be too extreme for them.
The irony of course is that it is the GOP that is rife with pedophiles with numerous recent convictions of senior GOP politicians.
per Wiki:
They have lived in complete isolation from other ringed seal species for around 9,500 years and have diverged into a morphologically and ecologically different subspecies of ringed seal.[3] The population is descended from ringed seals that were separated from the rest when the land rose after the last ice age. This seal, along with the Ladoga seal and the Baikal seal, is one of the few living freshwater seals.
I'm not assuming anything, but it is a factor, and bears watching. My guess, FWIW, is that it will become more not less significant.
Not sure she'd be the best fit for an election with culture war issues....
It might well switch a few otherwise reliably Republican votes.
IIRC There was one between Ed Davey's Kingston & Surbiton constituency and another local constituency, for example.
One of the most interesting aspects of WWI I've been learning about is how close the Russians came to winning their war, both in Europe, and Middle East. They really might have taken Vienna and Constantinople.
#coffeefail
Went in this morning to buy my chosen new coffee machine, discussed last week.
Unfortunately the sale period has finished and it is back up to £699 from £329.
Hah !
Next time ...
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/12/politics/kfile-kathy-barnette-bigoted-statements/index.html
They want to abstain, full stop. Fine.
But it is utterly offensive to let a party of 20% dictate whether democracy can proceed or not.
Stormont should go ahead, and the UUP nominated for the Deputy First Minister role (it should really be the Alliance, but let’s assume for a moment that we are not ready to break the consocialist model).
Wordle 329 2/6
⬜🟨🟩⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Apart from anything else we want/need a system that disincentivises obstructionism.
It has damaged Northern Ireland for too long.
The best chance for a Dems pick up is Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
Less chance North Carolina and Ohio but not impossible.
Best chance for GOP pick ups are Arizona , Georgia and Nevada .
It really could go either way at this point .
Kamran Butt, who ran for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow’s Southside Central ward, was welcomed to the SNP by Scots Asians For Independence (SAFI) on Friday.
Butt was the Alba party’s most successful candidate at the council elections. He won 623 (roughly 8%) of the first preference votes in the ward in which he ran.
According to figures from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland, none of Alba’s other 110 candidates managed to win more than 300 first preference votes.
The news of Butt’s defection comes as Alba leader Alex Salmond vowed to continue on despite the disappointing results for the party.
https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/20139209
My suspicion/hypothesis is lack of demand + “big agri” churning out crap.
https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1525414541865193473
It just not as good (according to the fruit broker) as Paris, and probably the larger Italian cities.
I’ve become a bit obsessed with the economics around food, hah.
The other thing relevant to the UK is the amazing cheapness of food, at least until very recently.
Seems to be a combination of CAP + exceptionally competitive supermarket sector.
Apparently there is a tendency to have Svejk - themed restaurants all over the place these days, complete with graphics lifted from the original drawings for the books. No idea what that is about.
This has made me wonder if there is a decent film ...
I’d be fascinated to know which narrative is true in which places and for what products. No one is refusing to export Lafite, for example, but does France keep other things to herself? I suspect it’s all about money really. If it’s worth more to export, it will be exported. Not as romantic a notion though….
😂😂
eg
https://foursquare.com/top-places/new-york-city/best-places-organic-food
FWIW as a grumpy centre left forty something a lot of this stuff irritates me too, but I think it is essentially harmless and pretty easy to block out.
An example being Banana imports:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw7PUrgU3N0
A voting age limit (life expectancy minus whatever the bottom limit is, so 80 minus 18). I’d be up for giving parents votes for their kids too. So two kids, two extra votes
https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1525434183518232576
America does very decent potatoes. A bag of idaho potatoes from Costco is a treat. Much more expensive than the UK though.
Sometimes american food is almost mystifyingly expensive - $4 for a sliced loaf, $3 for a 50p packet of biscuits, for example.
e.g. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/04/freakonomics_di.html
Some of the more ‘liberal’ bills give the impression of being pro-abortion, rather than pro-choice. They can come across (to a centrist) that abortion is wonderful and we should be having as many as possible.
The average farm size in the US is 444 acres, compared with 69 in France.
Add that to an undiscerning market…
The Good Soldier Švejk dates from the early 1920s:
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQgsGidk7a8wO8RiddoTMW5eoUG0vzF8wfzZQ&usqp=CAU
91:an from the early 1930s (with Stomperud splitting off shortly after):
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRRnSKeQuJS0Qvo064hCVNsee6r8HCoBIHP8g&usqp=CAU
https://static.tvno.nu/27231740?forceFit=0&height=720&quality=50&width=1280
More research definitely needed.
"She's a very old friend and we came along to cheer her on. We had no idea she was going to win but luckily my wife said to put a bet on."
Former SamCam SpAd Isabel Spearman won the charity race at Newbury.
Nothing fancy: some nice cheese, pukka salami and ham, decent bread, good tomatoes, spring onions, fruit, bottle of red
Something you could do in almost any British supermarket above the level of an Aldi for about £15-£20
I tracked down a big local Louisiana supermarket which seemed to be halfway between a M&S and Wholefoods.
Everything was decidedly average, the salami was rubbish, the bread barely edible AND it cost me $50. Over £40
Might as well have had oysters in the French Quarter. Again
Britain is very well served by its supermarkets and America is downright strange when it comes to food. Restaurant food in Louisiana is very often excellent so I just don’t get it
Enjoy!
The DUP in fact never accepted the GFA.
I guess they might pick up disaffected Nats if no referendum occurs if they can hobble on till then.
Edit - just noticed I completely missed the joke there. I'm very clever, honest.