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Senate 2022: Pennsylvania, a truly Purple State – politicalbetting.com
Senate 2022: Pennsylvania, a truly Purple State – politicalbetting.com
I should state upfront I’m not as confident of the tip at the end of this article than normal.
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https://time.com/6175747/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-primary/
"[Fetterman] thinks the left-vs.-moderate divide that dominates Democratic strategy discussions is largely a Washington paradigm; that normal people don’t care about policy positions as much as political wonks think they do;
and that Pennsylvania voters mostly want somebody who bothers to travel to the far reaches of the state to meet them. “I just show up,” he says... “And I just try to be me.”
@JohnRentoul
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19m
Labour can win the next election if it focuses on cost of living not culture war, survey suggests
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1525403456307175425
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Time for Nandy?
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1525228636118339586
Russian government news: "Britain commanded the defence of Kyiv at the start of the Special Operation, says source."
It is also divided between a GOP rural and small town heartland and a Democrat dominated big city in Philadelphia with the suburbs in between switching either way. Where the Senate race goes in November will therefore be a key indicator of the mood of the nation
Whereas the UK has been foremost in leading the world against Russia and the invasion. If the UK had not helped with the training over the last six or seven years, or given that equipment at the start of the invasion (and embarrassing other countries to do the same), then the war might be over.
(You may not agree with the above; I might not agree with the above, but we're talking about what Russia perceives to be the truth.)
@Northern_Al
You, and others may mock. When I was growing up in Leeds, we had the best football team in the country, the best county cricket team, and the best rugby league team. We also had the best music (The Who - Live at Leeds for example). Some time ago, admittedly.
The glory days will return, and you'll all have to take Leeds seriously again. I hope
dixiedean:
Indeed. The continuing travails of the Rhinos is a mystery to all. They continue to have the most money, the second best squad in the league on paper.
And second worst on the field for a while now.
No one in the Western world has. And hasn't since the GFC.
Covid and this war has simply put the top hat and tails on it.
It's red with two blue blotches in the bottom corners.
Not that there's a great deal to destroy there.
John Major soapbox 92 vs John Major Soapbox 97
Besides, if they did need reminding, plenty of “this is what you must do where you live” help will be available in the anti Tory alliance newspapers, online all over new media.
Tactical voting is proved Massive in the past. So go back to your seat calculators and RIP THEM TO SHREDS they ain’t no use to you anymore!
And that does seem to be one way. Some of the English electorate seem to have a knee jerk dislike of progressive alliances but not so much where kippers or BXP have stood down. Probably because they are not representative in the Commons parties like the progressives I suppose
Even during the later Cold War - always the British were spying this, sabotaging that….
May be Sidney Riley’s long hand…
Without the UK I think France and Germany could persuade the US to pressure Ukraine into a settlement.
UKIP doesn’t run and the Tories don’t pronounce what voters should do. They just target a pool of voters with messages that appeal to them and absorb their votes
Now Johnson's lot have eroded all my tribal sensibilities, I'm open to anyone's argument for a way forward in a dramatically different global environment from that of the mid-to-late 20th century.
But I'm not part of some wishy washy, non-existent "progressive" (whatever the hell that means) "alliance".
Now, if the Tories become as unpopular as 93 to 03 and Labour and the LDs actually popular (neither are at the moment at anything like the extent of the former period) then perhaps we will no longer be in my 'normal circumstances'
I dont rule that out
And that every success they thought they had against the evil British was actually a British trap.
Publicly pro-coup he would have probably found a way to attempt to overturn the PA presidential results in 2020 if he had been in the Governor's Office.
https://twitter.com/FeWoessner/status/1524871894322798602?cxt=HHwWlICz0ZS6t6kqAAAA
Hundreds of miles range, 500lb payload. IKea could deliver a kitchen ...
In passing, I gather that Ben Bradshaw (Labour MP for neighbouring Exeter) has said that he expects the Lib Dems to win Tiverton & Honiton.
Russia is going to need a decade of rebuilding an entirely new generation of weaponry to have any offensive capability. And that decade does not start until they have left Ukraine. And a sizeable slice of their seriously depleted hydrocarbon revenues go towards rebuilding Ukraine.
Until then, the sanctions bite.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/08/red-plenty-francis-spufford
(For any techies, his earlier book 'backroom boys' was a superb look at the UK tech industry)
Soon as an alternative credible PM turned up, the entire USP and rationale for the government continuing disappeared. And deep down I think they all knew it.
I wasn’t sure about Starmer at first, but I think he could be quite good when PM actually, he’s had a good few weeks.
Although I remember my ex being convinced transferring her vote from home to Uni and Southampton Itchen was absolutely the key to Denham winning. She was a Lib Dem and voted Lib Dem but it was something to do with collective good intentions. I loved that daft girl.
I would not have voted for any of them though but Smith would have won comfortably in 1997 even if not as big a landslide as Blair did
(Or WFH in the mind of the Moggster.)
I get that you disagree with my hypothesis.
I personally see nothing in Starmer that would be anything but weak, bland and inconsequential as PM. Labour should be praying for a FPN. But then I despise labour more than I dislike the current iteration of the Tories and pity the Lib Dems.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_82_bomb
Minna Ålander 🌻
@minna_alander
Since many people know nothing about Finland, jump on click bait headlines and retweet without checking facts, here a short overview of the things Russia has threatened Finland with so far & what their consequences are/would be:
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1525397277577203713
3. Ending the lease contract of the Saimaa canal (Finland has leased the part of the canal that runs through Russia)
Finland doesn’t really need it anyways & would end up saving a s*it ton of money from the modernisation of the infrastructure.
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I had not heard about the Saimaa canal before.
That's different from the eighties, when people who really, really, hated the government were people who were losing out under the economic changes wrought by the Thatcher government.
This is not an unusally unpopular government, two and a half years into a Parliament. I think it's about 50/50 whether or not they win next time.
'A modest little man, with much to be modest about!' was Churchill's description. in 1945.
It's rather flattering.
The danger for the Tories is Cost of Living and how it's seen, portrayed and experienced. Partygate effects are probably now baked in.
Mike Smithsons header said Torys can be largest party and toast at the same time. Hence shows up some posters giving opposition silly difficult hoops to jump through as fake definition of “winning”. Another Mike Smithson header flagged up Tories can lose their majority even without Labour winning very much. As bettors he is asking us not to think of “win” but how fragile and close the Tory position is to losing.
And makes sense too. It’s a government party out of ideas, short on effective politicians to put into cabinet, and with no decent prime minister anywhere in their parliamentary party they can promote to the electorate.
The extent of that win is a different matter.
If Labour gained nothing, Tories lost heavily to the LDs and Starmer was PM with a coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, Green, SDLP, PC etc on the same seats for Labour as their worst election since the 30s he'd have 'won' but it would be phyrric. Likewise PM Boris with 315 seats minority administration would have 'won' and wish he hadn't
There are degrees of winning.
Brexiters are often not the brightest - that's priced in - but these guys do seem to rather stand out.
Other opinions are available.
That won't help with cost of living here.
This put the Shah in power and an end to democracy.
They have a point in that respect.