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Ohio, Ohio, Ohio – Measuring Trump’s Chances – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    That's insane when you consider what a relatively low skill job being a "mechanic" at a main stealer is. Most of the time it's standing round pretending to do oil and filter changes but not doing them. All body and paint will be subbed out and nobody with a Hyundai old enough to have a serious engine issue is taking it to the dealer.
    It is very easy to underestimate the lack of mechanical or electrical inclination in most people.

    Change a defective wall socket - you will be regarded as scary professional sparky by most people out there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Nigelb said:

    Looks as though Ukraine took out a sizeable supply column yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1521556446747541510

    They’re still making daily attacks on Russian materiel in the field, and slowly depleting the enemy of resources.

    Ukranian figures are now more than 1,000 tanks destroyed, out of what they now say is a serviceable number of only 3,300.

    We know there’s around 10k tanks in Russia, but the majority of them are in graveyards and not close to being able to be sent to battle.

    https://www.minusrus.com/en <— Ukranian claims for Russian casualties.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    They’re still making daily attacks on Russian materiel in the field, and slowly depleting the enemy of resources.

    Ukranian figures are now more than 1,000 tanks destroyed, out of what they now say is a serviceable number of only 3,300.

    We know there’s around 10k tanks in Russia, but the majority of them are in graveyards and not close to being able to be sent to battle.

    https://www.minusrus.com/en — Ukranian claims for Russian casualties.
    There was a rather interesting youtube on here the other day - a chap looking for Russian tank storage sites.

    He seemed to find rather a lot of hulks missing turrets, left out in the open. Scrap essentially.

    I think he was saying that there were a few thousand that looked usable (from Google Maps images) our of the 6K or so tanks he found.

    EDIT - found it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA

    He says less than half of the 6K or so look usable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Next best thing to immediate EU membership, perhaps.
    https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1521745710068248577
    We want Ukraine to win this war.

    Yet so much has to be rebuilt.

    That is why I am proposing to start working on an ambitious recovery package for our Ukrainian friends.

    This package should bring massive investment to meet the needs and the necessary reforms.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It is very easy to underestimate the lack of mechanical or electrical inclination in most people.

    Change a defective wall socket - you will be regarded as scary professional sparky by most people out there.
    Indeed. Strictly speaking, one is no longer supposed to change wall sockets and light fittings any more.

    My colleagues are always impressed with my ability to DIY - it’s actually a very Western phenomenon, caused presumably by the relatively high cost of tradesmen. Kids don’t learn basic trade skills, when their parents will always get a man in to do simple jobs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited May 2022

    So your'e saying you have no interest in their votes again and are happy with at best minority government or worst going back into opposition.

    Proper political movements want to draw in as many voters as possible. Your puritanical approach is to drive them away.
    No I am saying that in a democracy after 10 years of one party in power there is normally a change of government. Many voters who voted for Blair and Cameron, May and Boris are now often going back to Starmer Labour as are Labour voters who lent Boris their votes to get Brexit done.

    They are not natural Tories however ie voters who supported the party even in opposition in the general elections it lost from 1997 to 2005. Those voters are still generally supporting the party and a few more pro Brexit ex Labour voters
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,216
    edited May 2022
    ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed. Strictly speaking, one is no longer supposed to change wall sockets and light fittings any more.

    My colleagues are always impressed with my ability to DIY - it’s actually a very Western phenomenon, caused presumably by the relatively high cost of tradesmen. Kids don’t learn basic trade skills, when their parents will always get a man in to do simple jobs.
    Not being able to change a fuse is common.

    The problem with the lack of knowledge is people doing things like the one I saw the other day - a cap was charing his electric car. The cord was too short, so he'd used an extension cord out of his window. A multi-way cheapo domestic extension thing. Sitting in a wet flower bed, in the rain. While he pulled 13 amps through it....

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss @BorisJohnson reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move @RishiSunak as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?

    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1521778182910877696
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Nigelb said:

    Next best thing to immediate EU membership, perhaps.
    https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1521745710068248577
    We want Ukraine to win this war.

    Yet so much has to be rebuilt.

    That is why I am proposing to start working on an ambitious recovery package for our Ukrainian friends.

    This package should bring massive investment to meet the needs and the necessary reforms.

    Even before the war, Ukraine would have needed a decade of work (minimum) to come near meeting the various criteria for membership.

    Accelerating full membership might well not be a good idea. A candidate membership (as with other states, perviously) combined with extensive aid packages and reform would probably be in the long term interests of both the EU and Ukraine.

    Otherwise the existing, pre war, Ukrainian issues would simply be ignored.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,222

    Not being able to change a fuse is common.

    The problem with the lack of knowledge is people doing things like the one I saw the other day - a cap was charing his electric car. The cord was too short, so he'd used an extension cord out of his window. A multi-way cheapo domestic extension thing. Sitting in a wet flower bed, in the rain. While he pulled 13 amps through it....

    That's going to short to earth if it's going to do anything so not really dangerous (by my standards).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    Real wages will be below 2010 levels at the next election.

    That says all you need to know about Tory economic ineptitude over the past 12 years.
    Possibly, but also the conditions the country found itself in in 2008 and then the pandemic.

    We can't run the counterfactual to know if a Labour government would have down either better. I'd also be interested to know how other G7 countries compare on the same measure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    No I am saying that in a democracy after 10 years of one party in power there is normally a change of government. Many voters who voted for Blair and Cameron, May and Boris are now often going back to Starmer Labour as are Labour voters who lent Boris their votes to get Brexit done.

    They are not natural Tories however ie voters who supported the party even in opposition in the general elections it lost from 1997 to 2005. Those voters are still generally supporting the party and a few more pro Brexit ex Labour voters
    I would also dispute the goal of political parties is merely to win elections. Power for its own sake is pointless.

    At the end of the day most Labour members and Labour MPs want to shift the country in a more socialist or social democratic and socially liberal direction and most Conservative members and MPs want to shift the country in a more conservative direction. There is no point trying to appeal to voters who will never share those aims
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    edited May 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    That's going to short to earth if it's going to do anything so not really dangerous (by my standards).
    Yeah - there'll be a fuse in the plug of the extension cord, a fuse in the plug of the charging cable, and a breaker/fuse in the consumer unit.

    So he won't set his car on fire.

    EDIT: But someone without the knowledge not to do that... he'll be up for the challenge of doing something dangerous through ignorance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Not being able to change a fuse is common.

    The problem with the lack of knowledge is people doing things like the one I saw the other day - a cap was charing his electric car. The cord was too short, so he'd used an extension cord out of his window. A multi-way cheapo domestic extension thing. Sitting in a wet flower bed, in the rain. While he pulled 13 amps through it....

    Workmen out here barely know what a fuse is - it’s common to see extension leads in the field with no plug, and the tails (only two, naturally) forced into the socket, with then half a dozen power tools plugged into various extensions running off it. More than once I’ve bought a 13A plug and fitted it myself, before the idiot electrocuted himself!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    I would also dispute the goal of political parties is merely to win elections. Power for its own sake is pointless.

    At the end of the day most Labour members and Labour MPs want to shift the country in a more socialist or social democratic and socially liberal direction and most Conservative members and MPs want to shift the country in a more conservative direction. There is no point trying to appeal to voters who will never share those aims
    They can’t enact their wishes if they don’t get elected though.

    That’s what happened with the more fervent Corbyn fans - they didn’t want to moderate their message, even though only a small minority agreed with them. The result - opposition not government.

    Elections are always won from the centre. See Blair and Cameron for example.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Sandpit said:

    They can’t enact their wishes if they don’t get elected though.

    That’s what happened with the more fervent Corbyn fans - they didn’t want to moderate their message, even though only a small minority agreed with them. The result - opposition not government.

    Elections are always won from the centre. See Blair and Cameron for example.
    Yes you need the middle too but you also don't abandon your core values and supporters either, otherwise you end up like Nick Clegg.

    Elections are often won from the centre but not always, see Attlee 1945 and 1950, Thatcher 1979, 1983 and 1987 and indeed arguably Boris 2019 or Wilson 1964, 1966, 1974
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    There was a rather interesting youtube on here the other day - a chap looking for Russian tank storage sites.

    He seemed to find rather a lot of hulks missing turrets, left out in the open. Scrap essentially.

    I think he was saying that there were a few thousand that looked usable (from Google Maps images) our of the 6K or so tanks he found.

    EDIT - found it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA

    He says less than half of the 6K or so look usable.
    That’s a good video, thanks for posting. It tends to back up the Ukranian figures, which is good, and it means that somewhere between a quarter and a third of the entire serviceable Russian tank fleet has been lost. They’ll need tanks elsewhere too, Russia is a big place, so we might be looking at close to half the Russian tanks gone already - meaning they have only two or three months left of attrition at the current rate.

    Also interesting that the US figures for attrition of tanks in a land war, are almost exactly what’s been observed with Russian losses in Ukraine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    Nigelb said:

    Looks as though Ukraine took out a sizeable supply column yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1521556446747541510

    Seems to be just north of Izyum, just off the main road from Belgorod. Like the Kyiv attack, destruction of the logistics tail is the key.

    Vesele
    https://maps.app.goo.gl/HtceKCJHuSai4MZE9
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Sandpit said:

    That’s a good video, thanks for posting. It tends to back up the Ukranian figures, which is good, and it means that somewhere between a quarter and a third of the entire serviceable Russian tank fleet has been lost. They’ll need tanks elsewhere too, Russia is a big place, so we might be looking at close to half the Russian tanks gone already - meaning they have only two or three months left of attrition at the current rate.

    Also interesting that the US figures for attrition of tanks in a land war, are almost exactly what’s been observed with Russian losses in Ukraine.
    Historically, armoured battles tended to stop/pause when the *winning* side ran out of running tanks. This was seen from the very start in WWI.

    The American numbers were based on this, I'm sure. The recent run of apparent near invulnerability* of American, British and Israeli tanks has been attributed to not fighting near peers.

    *By historical standards.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest rumour among Tory MPs: poss @BorisJohnson reshuffle after local elections, to try to control the 're-set' narrative ahead of the Q Speech next week.

    Will he move @RishiSunak as sacrificial lamb for the cost of living crisis?

    Or will Sunak walk? Some MPs think he didn't want to rock the boat before May 5...


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1521778182910877696

    I have a hunch Sunak is on his way out. He's keeping a very low profile given the elections this week. He missed the last two PMQs. R4 wanted Boris this morning - they got useless Eustice instead. I'd have thought Sunak was an obvious choice to answer questions on the cost of living, but he seems reluctant to do so. Maybe he's had enough, or maybe he knows he's going to be moved. Or maybe they just think somebody so rich is not the right person to answer questions about hardship.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think you mean tore the Conservative party apart, no-one else gave a toss. It never topped that What are your most salient concerns poll.
    Maybe. But all the component parts that got the Brexit vote did. With many people who then became Conservative voters, but who had been life-long Labour.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited May 2022
    Looking at the NI assembly elections last nights debate according to a post debate poll went badly for the DUP.

    Donaldson came last amongst viewers with the SDLP leader winning with 28% followed by Michelle O’ Neil on 23% . Donaldson on only 14%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Interesting the way that Ukraine announces Russia's battle plans each morning.
    They probably have better information that some of the Russian commanders who don't have access to Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1521765321324912640
    In eastern Ukraine, Russia intends to break through Ukrainian defenses near Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast to move to Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast) & Severodonetsk (Luhansk Oblast) to then try to encirlcle 🇺🇦 troops

    22 battalion tactical groups (600-800 soldiers) are currently near Izyum..
  • TOPPING said:

    They need to speak to perhaps the foremost political gambler on PB (no offence all) who is @Andy_JS. His spreadsheet and the approach it informed to EURef was extraordinary and contributed to most people on here winning more money on political gambling than they had ever done previously and for some, winning the most money ever on gambling ever.
    Hi, that's me! Anthony Pickles, a.pickles@uea.ac.uk Thanks for the tip about contacting @Andy_JS , I will do that now... That this community compares to Papua New Guinean gamblers is a great complement in my book! (You both seem to play around with how to understand the future head on).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,360
    Mr. Al, he may've been persuaded not to resign until after the elections.
This discussion has been closed.