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Time to over analyse things – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 2022

    I actually suspect it will be less close without Macron.

    He's a capable politician but not a particularly popular one, and won this election despite relatively low approval ratings.

    Nothing is impossible, of course, but there's a reasonably high chance that the next election will be a moderate versus an extremist, and the moderate will be relatively fresh compared with Macron, and compared with the non-moderate.

    Indeed, I think a Melenchon successor is more likely, on balance, to be a threat rather than Le Pen. She's stood in three Presidential elections now and, whilst you can point to progress, she's still lost pretty heavily, isn't getting any younger, and a lot of people have fixed views on her.
    Macron has charisma, nobody else in his party does really.

    Melenchon is just a French Corbyn.

    The right will have been out of the Elysee for 15 years in 2027, hopefully Les Republicains pick a decent candidate like Bertrand who can actually win next time
  • HYUFD said:

    I am a conservative not a far right nationalist, I did not even vote for Brexit although I accepted the result like you
    Fair play - we have our disagreements but good we both utterly reject the likes of Le Pen, Trump and Farage
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,679
    HYUFD said:

    Fillon would have won, hopefully the centre right pick a better candidate like Bertrand in 2027 rather than Pecresse. They could then beat Le Pen and Melenchon in the first round and take on the En Marche candidate in the runoff
    Steady on there. The Socialists will be back in the game by then...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    Military generally do follow orders , its not a holywood thriller - the only two times nuclear bombs have been ordered to be dropped the guys doing it did it
    Rather different situation to now though, wasn’t it? I’d imagine the crews families were all safely tucked up home in the USA, and no one else had nukes.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,596
    stodge said:

    The Cold War was a series of proxy conflicts where sometimes the USA and Soviet Union would be arming one side or both sides. Ukraine is more like Vietnam or Afghanistan in which the forces of one of the superpowers are faced with what should be an inferior force but which is armed and supplied by the other superpower.

    The results of both of those conflicts should give Ukraine some encouragement.

    We have to avoid the temptation to become directly involved.
    We are discussing this without considering one important thing. What is NATO's war aim? We are all-but belligerent, we must be working towards some end.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I do hope our own military have cut down on the parading around in favour of something more practical these last two months.
    I sincerely hope that we are buying all the spares and additional kit we can find at the moment. I fear our actual strength is somewhat different from our paper strength. We need all we have in good working order.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2022
    stodge said:

    The Cold War was a series of proxy conflicts where sometimes the USA and Soviet Union would be arming one side or both sides. Ukraine is more like Vietnam or Afghanistan in which the forces of one of the superpowers are faced with what should be an inferior force but which is armed and supplied by the other superpower.

    The results of both of those conflicts should give Ukraine some encouragement.

    We have to avoid the temptation to become directly involved.
    Yes. There is a good thread on twitter (Lawrence Freedman IIRC), on why 'proxy war' is an inappropriate term for Ukraine (or Afganistan against the Russians, or Viet Nam) as it implies the underdog is coerced into fighting on behalf of the Superpower's interests. Whereas, in fact, the fighting party has a great deal of agency (which is why they fight better).

    The Superpower's interests are the reason they supply the arms; they are not the reason the fighters fight.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,523
    kinabalu said:

    This run-off system in a time of populism and disenchantment is precarious, that's for sure.
    Especially with a splintered political system.

    Little more than 20% gets a place in the run-off.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,148
    Having a debate with GF about how to define "far-right". Seems a stretch to describe a candidate with 42% "far", though the binary choice exaggerates?

    I come from it on a relative, France-only basis, while GF comes at it from a policy perspective. Wonder how the BBC decide.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited April 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Depressing chat with friend back from Ukraine. His view is that NATO will inevitably get sucked in and war is inevitable.

    Reason for the sudden desire in NATO countries* to give Ukraine every bit of kit they ask for, on my understanding. If NATO is on the hook to hold back Russia they definitely want Ukraine to be able to manage on its own without their own countries needing to fight Russia.

    * Exceptions apply.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Steady on there. The Socialists will be back in the game by then...
    Hidalgo did even worse than Pecresse in the first round
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    I think a lot of people would say a centre right candidate has just pretty tidily won the Presidential election. Certainly, he's more centre right than centre left, and has pitched his big tent across the lawn of the traditional centre right. Pecresse tacked right to take on Le Pen, but it was inauthentic and she couldn't convince anyone that there was space for her.

    I find the centre left collapse more surprising in a way. There probably was a social democratic space to occupy there, but there never even looked to be a vague possibility of it being filled, whereas at least Pecresse briefy sparked interest before fizzling out.

    Well, Macron occupies most of the old centre left so no surprise. The rest was split across a few candidates but mostly tactical votes for Mélenchon, because he had bloc support from urban Muslims and angry radicals, similar to in the UK when lots of people stayed with Labour under Corbyn.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    unofficial results via Ministry of Interior confirm big Le Pen wins in Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Martin & French Guiana, split decision in St Pierre Miquelon

    Landslides for Macron in New Caledonia and Wallis & Futuna, narrow win in French Polynesia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    I think a lot of people would say a centre right candidate has just pretty tidily won the Presidential election. Certainly, he's more centre right than centre left, and has pitched his big tent across the lawn of the traditional centre right. Pecresse tacked right to take on Le Pen, but it was inauthentic and she couldn't convince anyone that there was space for her.

    I find the centre left collapse more surprising in a way. There probably was a social democratic space to occupy there, but there never even looked to be a vague possibility of it being filled, whereas at least Pecresse briefy sparked interest before fizzling out.

    Macron is a classical liberal, neither socialist or social democratic nor conservative.

    He is basically a French Nick Clegg
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385

    Military generally do follow orders , its not a holywood thriller - the only two times nuclear bombs have been ordered to be dropped the guys doing it did it
    Did they do it knowing that it would result in their death and the deaths of all their family and friends?
  • Liverpool FC!

    I'm so glad Everton and in particular Richarlison's shithousery lost today.

    Highlight of the match, Alisson taking the piss out of Pickford.

    https://twitter.com/AnfieldWatch/status/1518288475786821632
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480
    Evening all :)

    I'm going as usual to be slightly counter-intuitive.

    Le Pen should have done better - she's had five years to prepare against an ostensibly unpopular President. She's tacked toward the centre-right while maintaining her right flank and seeing off the challenge of Zemmour.

    She's had five years to game plan the debate - to come up with the knock out blow, the decisive argument which would undermine Macron and leave him, like Hollande and Sarkozy, a one-term leader.

    In the end, while she has done better than 2017, she's not really been able to convince France she's the right leader. Perhaps she's been unlucky because her relationship with Putin has proven a real liability.

    Perhaps her party will do better in the Legislative Elections but that isn't usually the case and it may well be LREM will be back with another majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    What's Putin going to kit this "full mobilisation" with?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Liverpool FC!

    I'm so glad Everton and in particular Richarlison's shithousery lost today.

    Highlight of the match, Alisson taking the piss out of Pickford.

    https://twitter.com/AnfieldWatch/status/1518288475786821632

    Nothing on Jens Lehmann:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e8gIZU5qSqM
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662
    Foxy said:
    Is that you, TSE??
  • rcs1000 said:

    On the eve of the Brexit vote, Opinium and TNS had Leave ahead, while YouGov, Populous and Ipsos Mori gave it to Remain.

    Ironically, YouGov's penultimate survey got it almost completely right, with a three point lead for Leave but their final prediction downweighted Leave on the basis of differential turnover.
    Is “differential turnover” a euphemism for “more old voters would have died”?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    You can tell from the posts on here who spends their time obsessively following certain persons on twitter. :dizzy:

    But as they say, it takes one to know one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm going as usual to be slightly counter-intuitive.

    Le Pen should have done better - she's had five years to prepare against an ostensibly unpopular President. She's tacked toward the centre-right while maintaining her right flank and seeing off the challenge of Zemmour.

    She's had five years to game plan the debate - to come up with the knock out blow, the decisive argument which would undermine Macron and leave him, like Hollande and Sarkozy, a one-term leader.

    In the end, while she has done better than 2017, she's not really been able to convince France she's the right leader. Perhaps she's been unlucky because her relationship with Putin has proven a real liability.

    Perhaps her party will do better in the Legislative Elections but that isn't usually the case and it may well be LREM will be back with another majority.

    In the French parliament though remember Les Republicains were still the main opposition, even in 2017, not Le Pen's RN party.

    So while En Marche may remain largest party, in the legislative elections it will probably lose seats to Melenchon's party, RN and Les Republicains and the Greens and maybe its majority too
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Eabhal said:

    Having a debate with GF about how to define "far-right". Seems a stretch to describe a candidate with 42% "far", though the binary choice exaggerates?

    I come from it on a relative, France-only basis, while GF comes at it from a policy perspective. Wonder how the BBC decide.

    Her name is Le Pen, so she is automatically defined as far right.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. And as long as they keep not doing it they'll never do it.
    Hey, I noticed your comments on Macron the other day. You described him as centre-right, and didn't like him cosying up to Trump. We tend to agree on most stuff, but I think you were harsh. I reckon Macron's just, marginally, to the left of centre. And I reckon he despises Trump and was playing him.

    For what it's worth, I also think Macron will tack a bit to the left in his second term - a bit more redistributive, and keen to distance him/his party from the bourgeoisie a bit more.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    politico.eu - LE PEN SEES VICTORY IN DEFEAT

    “A great wind of freedom could have swept through this country. The fate of the ballot box wanted otherwise,” Le Pen told her supporters in a speech.

    But she said her score of more than 40 percent of the vote “represents in itself a great victory. Millions of our compatriots have chosen the national camp and change.”

    She also thanked her voters, especially those in rural and remote areas: “This France which has been too much forgotten, we do not forget it.”

    SSI - Am NOT a fan of Putin's French understudy, but think that last para above is smack bang on the euro . . . AND the pound AND (lest we forget) the almighty dollar . . .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,523
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm going as usual to be slightly counter-intuitive.

    Le Pen should have done better - she's had five years to prepare against an ostensibly unpopular President. She's tacked toward the centre-right while maintaining her right flank and seeing off the challenge of Zemmour.

    She's had five years to game plan the debate - to come up with the knock out blow, the decisive argument which would undermine Macron and leave him, like Hollande and Sarkozy, a one-term leader.

    In the end, while she has done better than 2017, she's not really been able to convince France she's the right leader. Perhaps she's been unlucky because her relationship with Putin has proven a real liability.

    Perhaps her party will do better in the Legislative Elections but that isn't usually the case and it may well be LREM will be back with another majority.

    Here's a question would MLP have done better if she emerged from the traditional right than from the extreme right but other things, personalities and polices, being the same ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,679
    HYUFD said:

    Hidalgo did even worse than Pecresse in the first round
    The argument is that Socialist voters lent their support to Melenchon. The true base is somewhat higher.

    But I agree that it was a shockingly bad result.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662
    rcs1000 said:

    58-42 is a comfortable win for Macron, albeit meaningfully less comfortable than 2017.

    Never had a doubt :)
  • HYUFD said:

    Macron is a classical liberal, neither socialist or social democratic nor conservative.

    He is basically a French Nick Clegg
    Clegg was pretty clearly centre right. The smoothness of the relationship with Cameron, and extent to which their agendas aligned was ultimately a big part of his problem. He was to the left of the Tory rank and file, and many of its backbenchers for sure. But he was more closely aligned with the leadership of the Conservatives in those days than either party feels comfortable admitting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,243
    Roger said:

    Shame really. France as expected gave the far right its usual kick up the backside but the UK are landed with our far right for another two years.

    Life's a bitch

    I wouldn't say our current government is far right, so much as far out of its depth. The far right culture war stuff is just performative and they back down really quickly. For example on the misogyny and class contempt for Rayner.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,679
    HYUFD said:

    Macron is a classical liberal, neither socialist or social democratic nor conservative.

    He is basically a French Nick Clegg
    Nick Clegg 58, Tommy Robinson 42
  • As foretold Macron would defeat Le Pen.

    The Le Pen name is so toxic, it's like Farage in by elections.

    I do fear though in 2027 or later a Le Pen will win by by accident, not sure if it will be Marine or Marion.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited April 2022
    Putin must know that there is a significant chance he will be liquidated by the FSB (or suddenly become very ill) if he looks likely to go nuclear. An internal coup isn't guaranteed to work but not everyone in the security forces (or military) is an insane nihilistic nationalist.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,596
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    Lighting up a Russian victory parade somewhere in occupied Ukraine would amuse me more than it should. Or maybe Belgorod.

    Take Kherson? Although they should be in by the end of the week.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Some think he will use Victory Day to announce a full mobilisation.
    Although I do wonder what good full mobilization will do if there is no armour left to support the infantry.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480
    Update from Slovenia - latest projection has Svoboda on 38 seats, SDS on 33, Christian Democrats on 9 and Social Democrats on 8 with the other two seats to the Italian and Hungarian minorities.

    Svoboda plus the Social Democrats would have a bare majority.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Here's a question would MLP have done better if she emerged from the traditional right than from the extreme right but other things, personalities and polices, being the same ?
    No, because she wouldn't have blackmailed conservative voters into supporting her with tactical votes, if she didn't carry in around 10-15% from the traditional extreme right. Same way Mélenchon blackmails the moderate, pro-NATO left with his bloc of "insoumises".
  • tlg86 said:

    Nothing on Jens Lehmann:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e8gIZU5qSqM
    It was like watching a shit Atletico Madrid today.

    If Gordon doesn't dive he gets a penalty later in the match, reap what you sow.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited April 2022

    The problem has been the collapse of the centre-right in France.

    I wonder how things would have been if 2017 had been Fillon vs Melanchon.
    Macron is the centre-right candidate. He's moved rightwards for this election compared with 2017. Some misunderstanding about this north of the Channel.

    If we wind back to 2017, Fillon had it all sorted. He would get the Gaullist nomination, would swan through first round and beat Le Pen in the second as the only respectable candidate left. The Right/Far Right playbook had been run a couple of times already. Fillon hardly needed to campaign.

    And then his campaign self-combusted for reasons that are quite astonishing in the French context: for employing his family in shadow jobs where they didn't need to turn up to work. No-one ever gets done for anything like that. In 2017 both Macron and Le Pen were challengers. This time round Macron is the Fillon establishment candidate. It's why Pécresse did so badly, She had nothing to offer. Most of her would be voters were already in the Macron camp and the others who wanted to give Le Pen a chance had jumped ship.

    Edit which is probably why Mélenchon did so well. Supporters of other left parties realising their candidates didn't stand a chance voted for him tactically to get a Left/Centre Right choice in the second round instead. They almost succeeded. Macron would still have won the second round however.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Here's a question would MLP have done better if she emerged from the traditional right than from the extreme right but other things, personalities and polices, being the same ?
    Very good question . I tend to think she would do better. She can change the name of the party but can’t escape her family. The Le Pen name still frightens many French people .
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    We are discussing this without considering one important thing. What is NATO's war aim? We are all-but belligerent, we must be working towards some end.
    The end is the defence of the western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world, and defending it at the first, not last domino. That is a defensive posture; NATO is not being an aggressor.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,928
    Just out of interest on the whole Rayner story today. This Oxford Union debating training Boris has that Rayner supposedly can't compete with...is he planning to unleash these skills one day?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    What’s interesting is that the BBC are describing Macron as centre-right. I thought he was centre-left.
  • Also today I saw the greatest piece of skill in my life, I needed a cigarette when I saw him do this.

    https://twitter.com/Tactical_Times/status/1518287697323962368
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Let us hope Ben Wallace (and anyone sneering at badly-maintained Russian kit) is paying attention so the next time they are needed, our weapons have working batteries.
    Batteries don’t like it cold, and there isn’t much we can do about it. The Ukranians will be very used to the concept of having to charge batteries on all sorts of equipment that’s been out in the cold.

    In the proper Siberian winter, there’s a ‘process’ to starting a car, that involves taking the battery out and keeping it indoors overnight, turning on fuel and oil heaters for several minutes, then cranking the engine with the spark disconnected, before actually switching it on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    What show off all the Western kit the Russians can only dream of?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Eabhal said:

    Having a debate with GF about how to define "far-right". Seems a stretch to describe a candidate with 42% "far", though the binary choice exaggerates?

    I come from it on a relative, France-only basis, while GF comes at it from a policy perspective. Wonder how the BBC decide.

    Certainly NOT everyone who voted for Le Pen in round 2 is far-right politically, but (for whatever reason) they voted for far-right candidate.

    Note that in 1932 presidential election in Germany, 2nd round but with 3 candidates, Adolf Hitler won 36.8% of the total vote; further note that his share of the vote for top two candidates - himself & Hindenburg - was 41.0%

  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    kinabalu said:

    Looking like 58/42 for Macron. That's my call.

    Good call...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    MrEd said:

    More likely is that, if that scenario was looming, Russia would declare victory with the gains it had and then expect the West to tell Ukraine to stop fighting given the effect it is having on the world economy. TBH, though, if that is their thinking, I suspect they are in for a shock.
    I think the coalition of support would split on that point - plenty of people already argue anything prolonging things is bad - though if Ukraine is capable theres little reason theyd listen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    I think a lot of people would say a centre right candidate has just pretty tidily won the Presidential election. Certainly, he's more centre right than centre left, and has pitched his big tent across the lawn of the traditional centre right. Pecresse tacked right to take on Le Pen, but it was inauthentic and she couldn't convince anyone that there was space for her.

    I find the centre left collapse more surprising in a way. There probably was a social democratic space to occupy there, but there never even looked to be a vague possibility of it being filled, whereas at least Pecresse briefy sparked interest before fizzling out.
    It's all a bit confusing these days. I view Macron as a centre right politician. But in the Trads v Progs political binary (which is encroaching heavily on the Right v Left one) I view him as a Prog. So from my side of things he's on the wrong side and the right side at the same time. And somebody on the other side will think the opposite, that he's on the right side and the wrong side at the same time.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm going as usual to be slightly counter-intuitive.

    Le Pen should have done better - she's had five years to prepare against an ostensibly unpopular President. She's tacked toward the centre-right while maintaining her right flank and seeing off the challenge of Zemmour.

    She's had five years to game plan the debate - to come up with the knock out blow, the decisive argument which would undermine Macron and leave him, like Hollande and Sarkozy, a one-term leader.

    In the end, while she has done better than 2017, she's not really been able to convince France she's the right leader. Perhaps she's been unlucky because her relationship with Putin has proven a real liability.

    Perhaps her party will do better in the Legislative Elections but that isn't usually the case and it may well be LREM will be back with another majority.

    Broadly agree with this. The poor recent re-election record of French Presidents tends to indicate every election is a change election, and it's been difficult in France as it has here.

    In 2017, both she and Macron were change candidates, and you can see why he was more attractive and unifying. This time round, he had a (mixed) record to defend and ultimately it wasn't a squeaker. She's not getting any younger and next time she'll be up against a fresh opponent. Never say never, but she might well have blown her best chance.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913

    Putin must know that there is a significant chance he will be liquidated by the FSB (or suddenly become very ill) if he looks likely to go nuclear. An internal coup isn't guaranteed to work but not everyone in the security forces (or military) is an insane nihilistic nationalist.

    I see the internal coup argument come up, but I'm not convinced because it relies on the inner circle i) having access to the relevant information and ii) being rational enough to identify the 'correct' course of action.

    I hope the internal coupists are right, I desperately hope so, but I can't help remembering that the Generals and Ministers in Hitler's bunker, with the Red Army above them raping through Berlin, remained loyal to the end. A good chunk would have been zealots, another chunk just stupid, but apparently no one down there thought offing the man was in their interests despite it being seemingly obvious that it was in the World's interest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem Ukraine has is that the people who live in Crimea now... well, those people are mostly Russian.
    A fudge on Crimea could probably be found, depending on Donbas. But I'm not sure Russia is mentally able to accept that.
  • Never had a doubt :)
    How much did you have on Sunil and what price did you get?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    She increased her vote by about 9% on 2017, if she did the same in 2027 she would be on 50%.

    Macron cannot run again so could be close next time

    Fair play - we have our disagreements but good we both utterly reject the likes of Le Pen, Trump and Farage
    I think HYUFD has pretty consistent in his opposition to Trump, Le Pen and Farage. They do have a few secret supporters on PB but HYUFD isn't really one of them, and as he says he didn't actually vote for Brexit.

    The few fanboys on PB try to hide it (out of embarrassment I presume) but give themselves away by getting overexcited when the possibility of one of them pulling a surprise happens. We saw it tonight when the rumours about the French overseas territories votes emerged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Clegg was pretty clearly centre right. The smoothness of the relationship with Cameron, and extent to which their agendas aligned was ultimately a big part of his problem. He was to the left of the Tory rank and file, and many of its backbenchers for sure. But he was more closely aligned with the leadership of the Conservatives in those days than either party feels comfortable admitting.
    Clegg was centre right on economics yes but on social issues and Brexit he was certainly not aligned with most Conservatives.

    He could deal with Cameron, or indeed would have dealt with Blair or Starmer, he was too far away from Corbyn or Boris though
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,839
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    The most obvious high-profile target would be to destroy the bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785

    politico.eu - LE PEN SEES VICTORY IN DEFEAT

    “A great wind of freedom could have swept through this country. The fate of the ballot box wanted otherwise,” Le Pen told her supporters in a speech.

    But she said her score of more than 40 percent of the vote “represents in itself a great victory. Millions of our compatriots have chosen the national camp and change.”

    She also thanked her voters, especially those in rural and remote areas: “This France which has been too much forgotten, we do not forget it.”

    SSI - Am NOT a fan of Putin's French understudy, but think that last para above is smack bang on the euro . . . AND the pound AND (lest we forget) the almighty dollar . . .

    Losing is a "great victory"? Now who does that remind me of? Step forward, Jezza's mates (though not Jezza himself, actually).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    What show off all the Western kit the Russians can only dream of?
    You mean the Internet of Things connected fridge/freezers?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480

    Clegg was pretty clearly centre right. The smoothness of the relationship with Cameron, and extent to which their agendas aligned was ultimately a big part of his problem. He was to the left of the Tory rank and file, and many of its backbenchers for sure. But he was more closely aligned with the leadership of the Conservatives in those days than either party feels comfortable admitting.

    There was a brief period of convergence between the Orange Bookers and Cameron's "liberal conservatism" which allowed for the Coalition to come into being.

    Undoubtedly aided by the personal relationship the two leaders had, it was nonetheless also based on a convergence of ideas from post the GFC and recognising it was the end of more than a decade of Blairite "Third Way" policies.

    The convergence didn't last and the two parties are now as wide apart as ever but I wouldn't assume that translates to automatic support for a Starmer-led Labour minority Government at this time.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    As foretold Macron would defeat Le Pen.

    The Le Pen name is so toxic, it's like Farage in by elections.

    I do fear though in 2027 or later a Le Pen will win by by accident, not sure if it will be Marine or Marion.

    She's no longer a Le Pen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Putin must know that there is a significant chance he will be liquidated by the FSB (or suddenly become very ill) if he looks likely to go nuclear. An internal coup isn't guaranteed to work but not everyone in the security forces (or military) is an insane nihilistic nationalist.

    There must be someone low down enough to know the urvanished truth about the capability, but high up enough to be able to countermand the order, or at least demand a rethink when it comes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480

    Here's a question would MLP have done better if she emerged from the traditional right than from the extreme right but other things, personalities and polices, being the same ?
    I wonder if her niece might succeed in 2027.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Eabhal said:

    Having a debate with GF about how to define "far-right". Seems a stretch to describe a candidate with 42% "far", though the binary choice exaggerates?

    I come from it on a relative, France-only basis, while GF comes at it from a policy perspective. Wonder how the BBC decide.

    Right/Left labels aren't accurate n today's politics - although we still use them. The key divide is Nativist/Populist versus Globalist/Liberal.

    BTW Hope your new job is going well despite Covid
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    FF43 said:

    Macron is the centre-right candidate. He's moved rightwards for this election compared with 2017. Some misunderstanding about this north of the Channel.

    If we wind back to 2017, Fillon had it all sorted. He would get the Gaullist nomination, would swan through first round and beat Le Pen in the second as the only respectable candidate left. The Right/Far Right playbook had been run a couple of times already. Fillon hardly needed to campaign.

    And then his campaign self-combusted for reasons that are quite astonishing in the French context: for employing his family in shadow jobs where they didn't need to turn up to work. No-one ever gets done for anything like that. In 2017 both Macron and Le Pen were challengers. This time round Macron is the Fillon establishment candidate. It's why Pécresse did so badly, She had nothing to offer. Most of her would be voters were already in the Macron camp and the others who wanted to give Le Pen a chance had jumped ship.

    Edit which is probably why Mélenchon did so well. Supporters of other left parties realising their candidates didn't stand a chance voted for him tactically to get a Left/Centre Right choice in the second round instead. They almost succeeded. Macron would still have won the second round however.
    Macron is not centre-right. He is centre. (Not centre-left either, despite his background in the Socialist government.) The BBC and Guardian may disagree and swallow the line from the anti-NATO insoumises wholesale, but remember also they spent most of the campaign reporting from places like Saint-Denis and Trappes - which is like reporting on a British election mostly from places like Bradford and Tower Hamlets, except the election is between two candidates who call out radical Islam.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2022
    Unpopular said:

    I see the internal coup argument come up, but I'm not convinced because it relies on the inner circle i) having access to the relevant information and ii) being rational enough to identify the 'correct' course of action.

    I hope the internal coupists are right, I desperately hope so, but I can't help remembering that the Generals and Ministers in Hitler's bunker, with the Red Army above them raping through Berlin, remained loyal to the end. A good chunk would have been zealots, another chunk just stupid, but apparently no one down there thought offing the man was in their interests despite it being seemingly obvious that it was in the World's interest.

    AND. Two of the things tyrants do:
    1. Make their inner circle complicit in their own crimes
    2. Make their downfall the downfall of the inner circle
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Losing is a "great victory"? Now who does that remind me of? Step forward, Jezza's mates (though not Jezza himself, actually).
    Le Pen wants to keep her supporters - base & swing - motivated for the upcoming legislative elections.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited April 2022

    Hey, I noticed your comments on Macron the other day. You described him as centre-right, and didn't like him cosying up to Trump. We tend to agree on most stuff, but I think you were harsh. I reckon Macron's just, marginally, to the left of centre. And I reckon he despises Trump and was playing him.

    For what it's worth, I also think Macron will tack a bit to the left in his second term - a bit more redistributive, and keen to distance him/his party from the bourgeoisie a bit more.
    Oh I agree he was playing Trump and has contempt for him. It's just I have zero tolerance for showing Trump any warmth or respect even if it's fake. I have the worst case of 'TDS' in Britain, I think.

    CR v CL? No, I stick to that, CR, based on how he's governed 1st term. But let's see if his 2nd term bears out your view. Hope so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    Sandpit said:

    Which is why the West need to make it very clear that Putin needs to be defeated, and be seen to have been defeated.
    Yes, the 'he must be given something he can claim as a win' talk is misguided attempts at realpolitik, ignoring what he has done and thus will do in future with wins to date.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,596
    kle4 said:

    A fudge on Crimea could probably be found, depending on Donbas. But I'm not sure Russia is mentally able to accept that.
    The population could be deported. If the Russians lose badly enough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,243

    Lighting up a Russian victory parade somewhere in occupied Ukraine would amuse me more than it should. Or maybe Belgorod.

    Take Kherson? Although they should be in by the end of the week.
    Kherson will be tricky, because of the scale of the Dneiper, and the very limited crossing points. The city maybe, but the oblast very difficult. Trapping the Russian forces east of the river would be a major victory though, and would really secure Odesa.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543

    What show off all the Western kit the Russians can only dream of?
    More like, showing off all the Russian kit the Russians can only dream of.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567

    What chance of her winning in 5 years?

    Based on current rate of progress try 10.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Unpopular said:

    I see the internal coup argument come up, but I'm not convinced because it relies on the inner circle i) having access to the relevant information and ii) being rational enough to identify the 'correct' course of action.

    I hope the internal coupists are right, I desperately hope so, but I can't help remembering that the Generals and Ministers in Hitler's bunker, with the Red Army above them raping through Berlin, remained loyal to the end. A good chunk would have been zealots, another chunk just stupid, but apparently no one down there thought offing the man was in their interests despite it being seemingly obvious that it was in the World's interest.
    One of them did...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ydoethur said:

    More like, showing off all the Russian kit the Russians can only dream of.
    Captured Russian equipment is Ukraine's largest source of heavy armour, and Ukraine now reportedly has more tanks in Ukraine than Russia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    Foxy said:

    Interesting rumours that Zelensky has plans to mark Victory Day too, and in a way that Russia would find very embarrasing.
    By being alive?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    kle4 said:

    Yes, the 'he must be given something he can claim as a win' talk is misguided attempts at realpolitik, ignoring what he has done and thus will do in future with wins to date.
    One of Putin's many stupidities in his invasion of Ukraine is setting up a situation where most of the other actors require him to be defeated.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    The Ukrainians should parade their secret weapons.....the farmers in their tractors.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,207

    Le Pen wants to keep her supporters - base & swing - motivated for the upcoming legislative elections.
    Biggest result for her party, ever.

    My biggest concern is how the polling maps showed support across France for the National Rally. If replicated in the final results, this would show breakthroughs in a number of regions. I am old enough to remember when the wise heads told us that the French National Front was severely regional and could never be competitive nationwide.
  • Heh.


  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,596
    TimT said:

    The end is the defence of the western democratic, human rights, liberal economics ideal in a rules-based world, and defending it at the first, not last domino. That is a defensive posture; NATO is not being an aggressor.
    Yes, but is it the defeat of Russia, the destruction of their Army of Ukraine, a truce on 2014 borders, a bullet in the back of Putin's head, etc, etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567

    Let us hope Ben Wallace (and anyone sneering at badly-maintained Russian kit) is paying attention so the next time they are needed, our weapons have working batteries.
    I'm sure they will pay attention. For a month or two.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,679
    kle4 said:

    A fudge on Crimea could probably be found, depending on Donbas. But I'm not sure Russia is mentally able to accept that.
    An independent Crimea?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    politico.com - ‘Not good idea’: Ukrainians dump on U.N. chief’s planned Putin meeting
    Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the Russians are interested in genocide, not more negotiations.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/24/ukraine-putin-united-nations-00027383
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    politico.eu - POLLSTERS LARGELY AGREE ON PROJECTIONS

    Pollsters were generally very close in their initial second round projections tonight, putting Emmanuel Macron easily ahead of his challenger Marine Le Pen.

    Here are their projections (official results will be published later by the interior ministry):

    IPSOS: 58.2 percent for Macron, 41.8 percent for Le Pen.

    IFOP: 58 percent for Macron, 42 percent for Le Pen.

    OpinionWay: 57.9 percent for Macron, 42.1 percent for Le Pen.

    Harris Interactive: 58 percent for Macron, 42 percent for Le Pen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OllyT said:

    I think HYUFD has pretty consistent in his opposition to Trump, Le Pen and Farage. They do have a few secret supporters on PB but HYUFD isn't really one of them, and as he says he didn't actually vote for Brexit.

    The few fanboys on PB try to hide it (out of embarrassment I presume) but give themselves away by getting overexcited when the possibility of one of them pulling a surprise happens. We saw it tonight when the rumours about the French overseas territories votes emerged.
    Let me share with you my pet PB hate: it's dickless generalisers. You want to attack a poster? so attack them. Your generative organ is so microscopic that attacking is simply not an option? Hang weights on it, and STFU. "Few fanboys" ffs.

    Your brain seems to be vying (vieing?) with your willy on the nanometer. This is a betting website, and surely even you can see that punters might be excited by the thought of a Le Pen victory for betting reasons?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TimT said:

    Captured Russian equipment is Ukraine's largest source of heavy armour, and Ukraine now reportedly has more tanks in Ukraine than Russia.
    Even ignoring the Western reinforcements, the Ukranians now have more tanks than they did before the war started! They’ve captured more than they’ve lost themselves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567

    Biggest result for her party, ever.

    My biggest concern is how the polling maps showed support across France for the National Rally. If replicated in the final results, this would show breakthroughs in a number of regions. I am old enough to remember when the wise heads told us that the French National Front was severely regional and could never be competitive nationwide.
    Dont they always get screwed in the legislative elections?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,679
    HYUFD said:

    Clegg was centre right on economics yes but on social issues and Brexit he was certainly not aligned with most Conservatives.

    He could deal with Cameron, or indeed would have dealt with Blair or Starmer, he was too far away from Corbyn or Boris though
    Similarly, Cameron wasn't aligned with most Conservatives on social issues.

    The Notting Hill set were a long way removed from the Gammonati.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,207
    Unpopular said:

    I see the internal coup argument come up, but I'm not convinced because it relies on the inner circle i) having access to the relevant information and ii) being rational enough to identify the 'correct' course of action.

    I hope the internal coupists are right, I desperately hope so, but I can't help remembering that the Generals and Ministers in Hitler's bunker, with the Red Army above them raping through Berlin, remained loyal to the end. A good chunk would have been zealots, another chunk just stupid, but apparently no one down there thought offing the man was in their interests despite it being seemingly obvious that it was in the World's interest.
    "The second most powerful man in the Reich couldn't find a step ladder?"
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Foxy said:

    Kherson will be tricky, because of the scale of the Dneiper, and the very limited crossing points. The city maybe, but the oblast very difficult. Trapping the Russian forces east of the river would be a major victory though, and would really secure Odesa.
    A push to the Dnipro at the Antonovskiy Bridge and then pushing eastwards along the north side of the river to the dam in order to create a big gap between Kherson and the Russian troops to the east and north of the river while denying both sets of Russian troops resupply across either bridge would be awesome, if highly unlikely.

    It would not matter if the Russians blow the Antonovskiy Bridge, either, in terms of securing Odesa. But the Russians will not blow the dam - Crimea relies on it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    An independent Crimea?
    Long grass, I think. A special international commission to oversee a final settlement, taking into consideration the interests and wishes of the residents, blah. Basically it will settle on the status quo, ie Russian possession but will delay formal acknowledgement for long enough that the rest of the agreement - Russia wholly or mostly returning to pre-2014 borders - can be implemented.
  • No departements on mainland in yet, but partial results currently showing double-digit drops for Macron in rural areas versus his 8-point fall nationwide.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,365

    An independent Crimea?
    A way to troll the Russians would be to allow them to keep Crimea, but have all the resources offshore go to Ukraine. After all, this is not about oil and gas, is it, Putin?

    (Hint; it is, in part. Transnistria, Donbass and Crimea all have large oil and/or gas deposits nearby. If Ukraine was to develop those, it could remove most of its, and Europe's, reliance on Russia.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    It already is de facto involvement with NATO arming Ukrainian and it cannot be ruled out that NATO will be drawn into the conflict at some time

    Just repeating your opinion does not make it an unqualified fact in this intractable and unpredictable war, sadly
    You must be new here
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    No departements on mainland in yet, but partial results currently showing double-digit drops for Macron in rural areas versus his 8-point fall nationwide.

    Certainly makes sense. What's the source?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    edited April 2022
    Final word from me on Le Pen. There's no doubt that she's tried to ditch the (neo-) fascist baggage of her party. But I watched most of the televised Macron-Le Pen debate a few days ago and some of her views, and language, still remain firmly entrenched in the far right. I was a bit taken aback - as I am that her vote is so high. If this is Le Pen having ditched her father's fascism, there's still more to ditch. The racism and unbridled nationalism is still there in the subtext, even if she chooses her words a bit more carefully. Her dog whistles on race and religion are much, much louder than even Farage's. It would have been a disaster for France, and Europe, if she'd won.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let me share with you my pet PB hate: it's dickless generalisers. You want to attack a poster? so attack them. Your generative organ is so microscopic that attacking is simply not an option? Hang weights on it, and STFU. "Few fanboys" ffs.

    Your brain seems to be vying (vieing?) with your willy on the nanometer. This is a betting website, and surely even you can see that punters might be excited by the thought of a Le Pen victory for betting reasons?
    Of course they are.

    Seem to have hit a bit of nerve there judging by the OTT personal abuse
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,207
    kle4 said:

    Dont they always get screwed in the legislative elections?
    Mostly - yes.

    But if the support in national elections increases, then at some point they will do much better.

    Unless, of course, Le Pen was "lent" a lot of her vote.
This discussion has been closed.