NYT ($) - Tucker Carlson Has a Cure for Declining Virility A promo for an upcoming Fox show describes a testosterone “calamity” among American men, along with an unlikely treatment.
Wonder if this Fucker has given free samples to his buddies Putin and 45?
Certainly seems to me he & they have all got serious drooping pecker problem.
NYT ($) - Tucker Carlson Has a Cure for Declining Virility A promo for an upcoming Fox show describes a testosterone “calamity” among American men, along with an unlikely treatment.
Wonder if this Fucker has given free samples to his buddies Putin and 45?
Certainly seems to me he & they have all got serious drooping pecker problem.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
It was this piece from Gerry Lynch that persusaded me that Le Pen is good value, as a bet. To be clear, Gerry Lynch detests everything that Le Pen stands for, (he's an Alliance Party activists) but he is an outstanding number cruncher.
Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on Le Pen at the moment. While I get the point about it's hard to see the polls offering anything but a Macron win, I'm not sure that's right in a 2 horse-race. The other bet that might be attractive is 9/4 at Macron winning 50-55% share if you think he'll win but abstentions will hit his margin.
Afternoon all, if not already posted the first French results are already in (via Belgian media )
Most of the western hemisphere DOM-TOM where Melenchon did very well in Round 1 have gone heavily for Le Pen, below is her score and change on Round 2 2017:
Guadeloupe 69.6 +44.7 Martinique 60.9 +38.4 Guiana 60.7 +25.6 Saint Martin/Saint Barthélemy 55.4 +20.5 Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50.7 +14.0
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
Calvert-Lewin injured again. That is basically their only out and out striker who is any good.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
If it was in any way close, we’d start to be picking up on signs of panic in the markets wouldn’t we? Macron’s team must be well sighted.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
I don't know, but I'd want to look at religious (especially Christian/Muslim) makeup.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Melenchon would have been in with a good chance of winning, had he reached the last two (which he nearly did).
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
If it was in any way close, we’d start to be picking up on signs of panic in the markets wouldn’t we? Macron’s team must be well sighted.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
I don't know, but I'd want to look at religious (especially Christian/Muslim) makeup.
Mayotte in the Indian Ocean is the only French overseas territory with a Muslim majority (99% approx).
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
Calvert-Lewin injured again. That is basically their only out and out striker who is any good.
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
IIRC, Everton has the longest unbroken run in the top division of English football.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Almost a quarter of Melenchon's votes (1.66m) came from Paris and its suburbs, and I'd expect few of those to go to Le Pen.
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
IIRC, Everton has the longest unbroken run in the top division of English football.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
I don't know, but I'd want to look at religious (especially Christian/Muslim) makeup.
I would go for that. I don't think Muslim voters in Metropolitan France (especially around Paris) will go for MLP. But they may stay at home, especially given the view that Macron was on course for victory. I'm assuming they can't report what is being said in Belgium in France itself due to the election laws.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
I don't know, but I'd want to look at religious (especially Christian/Muslim) makeup.
Mayotte in the Indian Ocean is the only French overseas territory with a Muslim majority (99% approx).
Thanks.
Anyone know how that compares with the profile of Melenchon voters in the hexagon?
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
I think both of those have validity but I think the religious make up will be the main issue
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Almost a quarter of Melenchon's votes (1.66m) came from Paris and its suburbs, and I'd expect few of those to go to Le Pen.
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
South East as in Marseilles to Nice? I know it has a reputation for supporting the right but that sounds a bit counter intuitive in the case of Le Pen
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
IIRC, Everton has the longest unbroken run in the top division of English football.
Nope, that would be Arsenal.
Yeah, you’re right there. Arsenal, then Everton. Mea culpa, that’s what happens when you post stats without looking them up first!
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Almost a quarter of Melenchon's votes (1.66m) came from Paris and its suburbs, and I'd expect few of those to go to Le Pen.
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
South East as in Marseilles to Nice? I know it has a reputation for supporting the right but that sounds a bit counter intuitive in the case of Le Pen
Le Pen won 44% in Provence-Alpes-Cote de Mere in 2017, so it would be surprising if she didn't reach 50%+ today.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Almost a quarter of Melenchon's votes (1.66m) came from Paris and its suburbs, and I'd expect few of those to go to Le Pen.
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
South East as in Marseilles to Nice? I know it has a reputation for supporting the right but that sounds a bit counter intuitive in the case of Le Pen
Will this be @Roger tonight when we get the results?
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
If it was in any way close, we’d start to be picking up on signs of panic in the markets wouldn’t we? Macron’s team must be well sighted.
F1: reasonably good race. Next up is Miami, which will be in the late(ish) evening, UK time.
Scrawling the post-race tosh now.
We booked our flights for Miami in anticipation of the GP but eventually the cheapest 3 day ticket you could buy was $1800!! Compared to Austin General Admission at $150 it was a no go. Instead we have spent $70 for the best seats in the house at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina for the Nascar race on the same weekend. Should be a hoot. I can take my Maga hat, which a work colleague bought me back from a US trip in early 2016 as an ironic present!! At least, it seemed ironic in 2016...
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
I think both of those have validity but I think the religious make up will be the main issue
Just did quick google/wiki check: > Guadeloupe = 80% Catholic > Martinique = 90% Christian
Without looking at others, am somewhat skeptical re: religion as key differential?
Genuinely think Everton could be going down for the first time in living memory for all but those aged 75+. Really could do with something out of today’s game, and that is highly unlikely.
IIRC, Everton has the longest unbroken run in the top division of English football.
Nope, that would be Arsenal.
Yeah, you’re right there. Arsenal, then Everton. Mea culpa, that’s what happens when you post stats without looking them up first!
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
@dixiedean Newcastle's last game is Burnley away...
Yep. And ours is Arsenal. Who'll probably need 3 for the Top 4.
Playing Leicester on 8 May, but our team will be knackered after playing Roma away on the Thursday. Particularly our midfield as we havent been rotating them.
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
I think both of those have validity but I think the religious make up will be the main issue
Just did quick google/wiki check: > Guadeloupe = 80% Catholic > Martinique = 90% Christian
Without looking at others, am somewhat skeptical re: religion as key differential?
I think the idea is that the Muslim vote won't go Le Pen, at least around Paris and the big cities.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
More likely is that, if that scenario was looming, Russia would declare victory with the gains it had and then expect the West to tell Ukraine to stop fighting given the effect it is having on the world economy. TBH, though, if that is their thinking, I suspect they are in for a shock.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
Just to distract from France - there are national elections in Slovenia today too. From my limited understanding a new party formed in 2021 looks likely to end up as the largest :
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
More likely is that, if that scenario was looming, Russia would declare victory with the gains it had and then expect the West to tell Ukraine to stop fighting given the effect it is having on the world economy. TBH, though, if that is their thinking, I suspect they are in for a shock.
Too many egos on either side when most people just want a solution that takes away a nuclear war - the west does not have to win - we are talking about the end of civilisation here not a playground fight
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
The South is the tricky problem. Russia are strong because of the supply lines through Crimea and Ukraine could never agree to give up that land as part of a potential peace settlement.
Just to distract from France - there are national elections in Slovenia today too. From my limited understanding a new party formed in 2021 looks likely to end up as the largest :
If you are betting on Le Pen would have thought the best value bet is her to win 50-55%, currently 21 on BF?
Agreed.
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
My own barely-educated "explanation" is two-fold: > localized issues; and > DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
Almost a quarter of Melenchon's votes (1.66m) came from Paris and its suburbs, and I'd expect few of those to go to Le Pen.
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
South East as in Marseilles to Nice? I know it has a reputation for supporting the right but that sounds a bit counter intuitive in the case of Le Pen
I'd expect Le Pen to win quite a few of the departments on the Med coast if she gets into the mid 40s overall.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
Still we search for a plausible "end" to this.
As I've said before, Putin has been scrupulously careful not to cross the line of actively attacking a NATO country or its territory. Neither Ukraine nor Moldova are NATO members but of course Poland and Romania are
We supply weapons but the Cold War was replete with examples of the US and Soviet Union supplying one side or the other (and in the case of the Ogaden War, both). Proxy conflicts or conflicts where one side's troops were involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan) also occurred but the West did not intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia so there were "rules" of a sort back then.
Ultimately, on the assumption there is no escalation (and we can treat the blood-curdling propaganda for what it is, hopefully), there will either be a political/diplomatic resolution or the conflict will de-escalate into a series of periodic skirmishes behind new lines.
Neither side is in a position to be magnanimous, neither side is in a position to accept an armistice which demonstrably looks like a defeat. Thus, the fighting, the dying and the ruination of Ukraine continues.
Would it be unethical to use the popularity of this blog to start a rumour she has it in the bag, extract some winnings, and then go back to the football?
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
The South is the tricky problem. Russia are strong because of the supply lines through Crimea and Ukraine could never agree to give up that land as part of a potential peace settlement.
I'm quite optimistic the Ukrainians will get back Kherson because it's clear there is quite strong opposition in the City and the risk for a Russian garrison is that they get cut off if the Ukrainians maximise the artillery and other supplies coming in.
Conservative Party Chairman backs Conservative Prime Minister.
I'm sure when Johnson fires him after the bad local election results, Dowden will still say how wonderful the Prime Minister is and how his failure as Chairman in no way reflects on the Prime Minister etc, etc.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
More likely is that, if that scenario was looming, Russia would declare victory with the gains it had and then expect the West to tell Ukraine to stop fighting given the effect it is having on the world economy. TBH, though, if that is their thinking, I suspect they are in for a shock.
Too many egos on either side when most people just want a solution that takes away a nuclear war - the west does not have to win - we are talking about the end of civilisation here not a playground fight
Given the only side threatening nuclear war is Russia's regime: what is your proposed 'solution' to the war that would stop him ever threatening their use again?
F1: reasonably good race. Next up is Miami, which will be in the late(ish) evening, UK time.
Scrawling the post-race tosh now.
We booked our flights for Miami in anticipation of the GP but eventually the cheapest 3 day ticket you could buy was $1800!! Compared to Austin General Admission at $150 it was a no go. Instead we have spent $70 for the best seats in the house at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina for the Nascar race on the same weekend. Should be a hoot. I can take my Maga hat, which a work colleague bought me back from a US trip in early 2016 as an ironic present!! At least, it seemed ironic in 2016...
Ditch the hat, but if possible check out racing reportage of Marty Smith & Ian McGee aka Marty & McGee. These guys are serious fans, esp. McGee.
For sample of their "work" from last year, check this out:
Highlight of their radio show is "Hillbilly Headlines". Last show they discussed upcoming race featuring grandson of Dale Earnhardt Sr. as well as extended discussion of potamology.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
Still we search for a plausible "end" to this.
As I've said before, Putin has been scrupulously careful not to cross the line of actively attacking a NATO country or its territory. Neither Ukraine nor Moldova are NATO members but of course Poland and Romania are
We supply weapons but the Cold War was replete with examples of the US and Soviet Union supplying one side or the other (and in the case of the Ogaden War, both). Proxy conflicts or conflicts where one side's troops were involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan) also occurred but the West did not intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia so there were "rules" of a sort back then.
Ultimately, on the assumption there is no escalation (and we can treat the blood-curdling propaganda for what it is, hopefully), there will either be a political/diplomatic resolution or the conflict will de-escalate into a series of periodic skirmishes behind new lines.
Neither side is in a position to be magnanimous, neither side is in a position to accept an armistice which demonstrably looks like a defeat. Thus, the fighting, the dying and the ruination of Ukraine continues.
"As I've said before, Putin has been scrupulously careful not to cross the line of actively attacking a NATO country or its territory. Neither Ukraine nor Moldova are NATO members but of course Poland and Romania are."
There are reasons to be positive about that. However, it should be remembered that Putin's regime have launched attacks against a NATO country - our own. Litvinenko and Salisbury poisonings are worrying signs that Putin does not see the use of WMD in quite the same way we do...
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
The South is the tricky problem. Russia are strong because of the supply lines through Crimea and Ukraine could never agree to give up that land as part of a potential peace settlement.
The problem Ukraine has is that the people who live in Crimea now... well, those people are mostly Russian.
F1: reasonably good race. Next up is Miami, which will be in the late(ish) evening, UK time.
Scrawling the post-race tosh now.
We booked our flights for Miami in anticipation of the GP but eventually the cheapest 3 day ticket you could buy was $1800!! Compared to Austin General Admission at $150 it was a no go. Instead we have spent $70 for the best seats in the house at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina for the Nascar race on the same weekend. Should be a hoot. I can take my Maga hat, which a work colleague bought me back from a US trip in early 2016 as an ironic present!! At least, it seemed ironic in 2016...
Ditch the hat, but if possible check out racing reportage of Marty Smith & Ian McGee aka Marty & McGee. These guys are serious fans, esp. McGee.
For sample of their "work" from last year, check this out:
Highlight of their radio show is "Hillbilly Headlines". Last show they discussed upcoming race featuring grandson of Dale Earnhardt Sr. as well as extended discussion of potamology.
If you’re going to the NASCAR, get a “Let’s Go Brandon” hat.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
The South is the tricky problem. Russia are strong because of the supply lines through Crimea and Ukraine could never agree to give up that land as part of a potential peace settlement.
The problem Ukraine has is that the people who live in Crimea now... well, those people are mostly Russian.
Sorry maybe I wasn't clear, I wasn't suggesting Ukraine will ask for Crimea back, I meant the south of what is now Ukraine i.e. Mariupol, Kherson, etc. Ukraine can never agree to giving up that land, both because of the people who live there aren't desperately keen to be part of Russia, but also economically they are major export hubs.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
It does seem hard to believe they could be defeated so comprehensively, even if Ukraine were able and willing to launch the kind of city smashing assault that would presumably be needed to push the Russians out of the cities taken in 2014.
I think the Russians retreating to the 2014 positions is quite possible. They are getting the same treatment at Izium that they got near Kyiv.
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
The South is the tricky problem. Russia are strong because of the supply lines through Crimea and Ukraine could never agree to give up that land as part of a potential peace settlement.
The problem Ukraine has is that the people who live in Crimea now... well, those people are mostly Russian.
The people in southern Ukraine were mostly Ukranians - and that didn’t stop Putin.
Ukraine wants their country back, to the pre-2014 border. Putin started the war, not Ukraine.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.
Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.
Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:
Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.
Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.
Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).
The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706
We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.
Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.
Dark clouds hang over Europe.
Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.
At some point soon, they are going to come to the realisation that the Ukranians have access to effectively unlimited military equipment and training, while their own forces are being rapidly depleted. Six months more of this, and there will barely be a Russian military, bar whatever unconventional weapons they can get serviceable.
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
If we're on track for WW3 we ought to change direction. But I don't think we are. I think Putin will consolidate a limited gain of territory and proclaim victory. The situation will then move from this 'hot' war in Ukraine to whatever you call a tense unstable stand-off between Russia and the West.
That's possible but I think that Ukraine are quite capable of ousting the Russians from all their gains and then the 2014 territories come into play. A palpable Russian military collapse is also conceivable and how would that affect the Russian political dynamic? God knows. The pace of the Russian defeat may be significant.
I'm the very opposite of expert on military matters but I'd be surprised if Russia were to lose this war to quite that extent. Of course (with the caveat of no crazy 'back against the wall' nuclear action from Putin) it would be great if I'm wrong.
More likely is that, if that scenario was looming, Russia would declare victory with the gains it had and then expect the West to tell Ukraine to stop fighting given the effect it is having on the world economy. TBH, though, if that is their thinking, I suspect they are in for a shock.
Too many egos on either side when most people just want a solution that takes away a nuclear war - the west does not have to win - we are talking about the end of civilisation here not a playground fight
Nobody is in control of events when a war starts. Although I'll admit to a strong emotional biase my reading of numerous reports and credible analyses is that the Russians have been heavily defeated so far and that although they have certain advantages for the southern based phase they are weakening whilst Ukraine is strengthening. I'd be very surprised if a comprehensive defeat of Russia and roll-back doesn't happen in the next month or two. The other thing to consider is that the break away statelets have been psycho run hell holes so how much de-Russification has taken place over past few years? I'd wager that if there was a properly run set of votes Ukraine would gain the 2014 territory and I'm not sure I'd bet on Crimea.
Comments
Importantly, if the sanctions hold he’ll be unable to get replacement weapons manufactured, will be relying on China to actively join in - at which point we really are in WWIII.
F1: reasonably good race. Next up is Miami, which will be in the late(ish) evening, UK time.
Scrawling the post-race tosh now.
Has Leclerc 79 and Verstappen 51.
But Verstappen's won two races and the sprint, which is 58 (possibly plus a fastest lap here).
Question for the PB.com collective: assuming those numbers from the DOM-TOMs are right, what would be the arguments for saying that Melenchon voters in Metropolitan France will vote differently from the DOM-TOMs?
(I guess one answer is to see the correlation between the two in the second round in 2017 but I don't have the numbers to hand)
Mr. Gate, not the best of the year but it had its moments.
Alfa Romeo was looking pretty tasty. Well, Bottas'.
> localized issues; and
> DOM-TOMs voters being more dependent on the traditional "feather-bedding" of French employment laws, regulations, etc. than in "continental" France (im)proper? [edit] thus more anti-Macron due to his policies.
* hat-tip late Paddy Ashdown!
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/04/imola-post-race-analysis-2022.html
But, I think that in post industrial France, and the South East, a lot of his voters could break for her.
Anyone know how that compares with the profile of Melenchon voters in the hexagon?
Wood has a decent strike rate for the top flight so it made sense to buy him but next season he will be a minor squad player.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Iwn29G4CfA&list=PLaBYW76inbX4jqNGixaoL1xQ_pMwNGIXG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNjhzW3fiNg
We need to introduce @saschalobo's superb term #lumpenpacifism to the English language.
https://spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzp
He is an Evertonian too.
> Guadeloupe = 80% Catholic
> Martinique = 90% Christian
Without looking at others, am somewhat skeptical re: religion as key differential?
So, I'm very green on Macron (bought just before round one), and have now more than covered my stake with a bet on Le Pen.
Trading to be in profit whatever the outcome is the sensible strategy.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Huge game for Leeds tomorrow night.
F1 price-gouging and greed is sad to hear but not necessarily surprising, alas.
Anybody heard from PB own Scottish speed merchant?
I can see retaking Kherson will be hard for Ukraine, but that may well be the plan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Movement_(Slovenia)
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
As I've said before, Putin has been scrupulously careful not to cross the line of actively attacking a NATO country or its territory. Neither Ukraine nor Moldova are NATO members but of course Poland and Romania are
We supply weapons but the Cold War was replete with examples of the US and Soviet Union supplying one side or the other (and in the case of the Ogaden War, both). Proxy conflicts or conflicts where one side's troops were involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan) also occurred but the West did not intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia so there were "rules" of a sort back then.
Ultimately, on the assumption there is no escalation (and we can treat the blood-curdling propaganda for what it is, hopefully), there will either be a political/diplomatic resolution or the conflict will de-escalate into a series of periodic skirmishes behind new lines.
Neither side is in a position to be magnanimous, neither side is in a position to accept an armistice which demonstrably looks like a defeat. Thus, the fighting, the dying and the ruination of Ukraine continues.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61207801
Conservative Party Chairman backs Conservative Prime Minister.
I'm sure when Johnson fires him after the bad local election results, Dowden will still say how wonderful the Prime Minister is and how his failure as Chairman in no way reflects on the Prime Minister etc, etc.
For sample of their "work" from last year, check this out:
https://www.espn.com/auto/story/_/id/31149101/formula-one-2021-opening-weekend-marty-mcgee-take-los-angeles
Highlight of their radio show is "Hillbilly Headlines". Last show they discussed upcoming race featuring grandson of Dale Earnhardt Sr. as well as extended discussion of potamology.
There are reasons to be positive about that. However, it should be remembered that Putin's regime have launched attacks against a NATO country - our own. Litvinenko and Salisbury poisonings are worrying signs that Putin does not see the use of WMD in quite the same way we do...
Ukraine wants their country back, to the pre-2014 border. Putin started the war, not Ukraine.
Turnout much higher - reported to be 49.3% at 5pm (BST).