Time to over analyse things – politicalbetting.com

System

Time to over analyse things – politicalbetting.com

France, presidential run-off election today:Turnout at 12:00 CEST…2007: 26.2%2007: 34.1%2012: 30.7%2017: 28.2%2022: 26.4% (-1.8) Source: Ministry of the InteriorMore: https://t.co/oL97q6lO3I pic.twitter.com/OoXUXuEZqT

Read the full story here

turbotubbs

First...

IshmaelZ

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

FrancisUrquhart

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

They voted early and often...

Sean_F

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

Eabhal

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

Sean_F

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

kle4

I'm not sure PB can mentally switch to over analysing things, so out of character.

Based on not much I have a feeling Macron will do better than I thought before, pushing 60.

Eabhal

On travel, I'm sorting out a Hebridean bike tour at the moment and it's just so frustrating that some of the best hostels are still closed due to a lack of social distancing.

Don't forget the enormous impact restrictions have had on the Highland (and Welsh/Lakes?) economies.

nico679

The overseas results aren’t a surprise as there was widespread problems there during the pandemic . Turnout was also very poor.

JosiasJessop

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

Good luck; hope you are up and running soon.

Stuartinromford

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

turbotubbs

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

This is the great problem. For so many people this is what Covid is like after vaccinations and boosters, plus omicron being a bit tamer. Sadly it’s still be nasty enough in the elderly, and for immune compromised people that it presents a challenge.
Hopefully you will be back to training ASAP.

Sandpit

F1: race about to start. It’s wet, and more rain is forecast. Bet on a safety car at almost any price, and take the under on number of finishers.

CarlottaVance

So it seems Putin didn't attend Easter services. Instead, pre-recorded footage of him in an empty church (from 2021?) was added to the actual service, and this was then broadcast as if real. This doesn't feel like a dictator who's confident in his security, or his overall rule.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1518207828242087938

Or is more Ill than they are letting on….(see HMQEII…)

Foxy

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

So it seems Putin didn't attend Easter services. Instead, pre-recorded footage of him in an empty church (from 2021?) was added to the actual service, and this was then broadcast as if real. This doesn't feel like a dictator who's confident in his security, or his overall rule.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1518207828242087938

Or is more Ill than they are letting on….(see HMQEII…)

Not wanting to give away his location - which has probably been a Siberian bunker for the past few weeks.

BlancheLivermore

Ok.. one more beer, then siesta. I have to look at this depressingly blue sky, so need to drown my sorrows. I’ve had to move into the shade because the sun is so hot!

SandraMc

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

I'm recovering from Covid. I would say it has been more like bronchial flu than a cold. I've still got a nasty cough and I am feeling fatigue.

I am getting tired of all this "no worse than a cold" business. If it hasn't been bad for you than you've been lucky.

IshmaelZ

FF43 said:

Ukraine is a disaster for Russia* whether it "wins" or loses. The difference is whether the humiliation is long drawn out or sudden. It has nothing to gain from Ukraine and even less from places like the Baltic states or Moldova. At some point that realisation is going to kick in

* Bigger disaster for Ukraine obvs.

Sure, but a conventional disaster is merely the gateway to thermonuclear triumph

Things are seriously frightening. Bay of Pigs frightening, except I'd rather have JFK and Khrushchev negotiating a nuclear crisis than Biden and Putin.

We have already sold the pass on "standing up to" Russia btw, we have a clear duty under the 1948 convention to prevent genocide, but we've tacitly decided that there is an "unless the perp has nukes" exclusion clause in there somewhere

Foxy

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

Covid is a lottery, but post viral fatigue for a week or two seems fairly common, so best not overdo it in the recovery phase. The worst of my immediate family was 20 year old Foxjr2 who was floored by it

turbotubbs

SandraMc said:

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

I'm recovering from Covid. I would say it has been more like bronchial flu than a cold. I've still got a nasty cough and I am feeling fatigue.

I am getting tired of all this "no worse than a cold" business. If it hasn't been bad for you than you've been lucky.

Everyone is different, but the overwhelming majority of people I know who have had Covid recently have had mild cold symptoms, and have been frustrated by the lateral flow still being positive on days 6 onwards when they feel fine.
Hopefully you will shake it off fully soon.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

So it seems Putin didn't attend Easter services. Instead, pre-recorded footage of him in an empty church (from 2021?) was added to the actual service, and this was then broadcast as if real. This doesn't feel like a dictator who's confident in his security, or his overall rule.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1518207828242087938

Or is more Ill than they are letting on….(see HMQEII…)

It could also be he is just getting lazier - he's cracked down on dissent a lot more, so perhaps he feels less need to go through the motions of trying to engage public support.

kle4

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Sandpit

Hope you all bet on the safety car.

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

Hope you all bet on the safety car.

Lots of angry Italians.

SandraMc

Apologies for my rattiness but I am still feeling the after effects and getting frustrated by spending days watching rubbish TV. I'd read more but I am having difficulties concentrating.

WalterWhite

Sandpit said:

Hope you all bet on the safety car.

I followed your recommendation and thanks very much.

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

Hope you all bet on the safety car.

Free money.

turbotubbs

SandraMc said:

Apologies for my rattiness but I am still feeling the after effects and getting frustrated by spending days watching rubbish TV. I'd read more but I am having difficulties concentrating.

Nothing to apologise for! If you think that was ratty you’ve not read enough late night pb... Keep the faith and be gentle on yourself.

IshmaelZ

CarlottaVance said:

So it seems Putin didn't attend Easter services. Instead, pre-recorded footage of him in an empty church (from 2021?) was added to the actual service, and this was then broadcast as if real. This doesn't feel like a dictator who's confident in his security, or his overall rule.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1518207828242087938

Or is more Ill than they are letting on….(see HMQEII…)

He was happy to be filmed discussing the war with Shoigu on Thursday, and he has been noted for years for the rarity of his public appearances.

Amateur kremlin watching.

williamglenn

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

tlg86

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

You can guarantee that our wonderful media will this afternoon/evening completely forget about the legislative election to come.

CorrectHorseBattery

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

FrancisUrquhart

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

CorrectHorseBattery

https://mobile.twitter.com/sundersays/status/1517623359193948160

ROFL Priti’s plan is a disaster.

All features of recent polls suggest Labour is way ahead. I think Opinium‘s new methodology is looking worse each week

Nigelb

The EU plans to relaunch trade talks with India in an attempt to give the country a viable alternative to diversify away from Russia — Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1518201155666464768

ydoethur

BlancheLivermore said:

Ok.. one more beer, then siesta. I have to look at this depressingly blue sky, so need to drown my sorrows. I’ve had to move into the shade because the sun is so hot!

It's lovely and sunny here in Staffs. Will be going out on a bike ride when the Grand Prix's finished, but meanwhile I'm enjoying watching rain in Imola and sunshine here!

Roger

SandraMc said:

Eabhal said:

After two and a bit years, finally caught Covid.

Indistinguishable from a mild cold. Went for a significant night out on Friday with a slightly sore throat (but after negative LFTs) and have infected about 5 people.

My primary concern is the impact on my marathon training...

I'm recovering from Covid. I would say it has been more like bronchial flu than a cold. I've still got a nasty cough and I am feeling fatigue.

I am getting tired of all this "no worse than a cold" business. If it hasn't been bad for you than you've been lucky.

I saw your post on the last thread about 'Anatomy of a Scandal'. It wasn't my cup of tea either. I appreciated the way the director had tried to pump life into it with the spinning camera and differential focus but the story was seriously flawed. I couldn't believe any of the characters either but I think that had a lot to do with the script. For me the saving grace was the Bullingdon Club. The one part I could believe!

FF43

It's hard to make the numbers add up for a Le Pen win, given we have already have had one round where Macron was ahead of Le Pen, where more voters for other first round candidates have said they will vote for Macron than for Le Pen, where turnout is more or less keeping up with previous elections and where opinion polls have been trending towards Macron in recent days.

But we will know tonight.

BlancheLivermore

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons.

I think I was assured, when I posted a picture of him at an anti-NATO protest, that his youthful views should be dismissed. I reckon pro-Sovietism sticks. And sticks fast.

MarqueeMark

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Peter_the_Punter

You may consider me reckless, TSE, but I'm thinking of throwing caution to the wind and having a 50p double on Macron and Liverpool.

Fancy my chances?

Foxy

Peter_the_Punter said:

You may consider me reckless, TSE, but I'm thinking of throwing caution to the wind and having a 50p double on Macron and Liverpool.

Fancy my chances?

But where can you spind your winnings? Not many penny slot machines left.

Foxy

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Not as Anglophobe as Le Pen.

Roger

"Are Manchester City Facing A Jesus Dilemma"

Not bad for the BBC.

kle4

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

FF43

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Not as Anglophobe as Le Pen.

I don't think Macron is particularly Anglophobe. Definitely the case is that French and UK relations are in the worst state for decades and neither Johnson nor Macron are interested in fixing them for reasons of ideology and where they think their respective countries are going strategically.

Daveyboy1961

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Sean_F

https://www.facebook.com/gi0rtn/posts/10160037590461948

It was this piece from Gerry Lynch that persusaded me that Le Pen is good value, as a bet. To be clear, Gerry Lynch detests everything that Le Pen stands for, (he's an Alliance Party activists) but he is an outstanding number cruncher.

MaxPB

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

There's no good option in France. What's also burning in Germany is Merz forcing a vote on heavy weapons in Ukraine in the Bundestag. Scholz may very quickly find himself out of favour in his own coalition as the FDP and Greens have both previously suggested they support sending tanks to Ukraine.

The leaders of Europe's three biggest powers are a moral vacuum.

Dura_Ace

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

BlancheLivermore

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

There's no good option in France. What's also burning in Germany is Merz forcing a vote on heavy weapons in Ukraine in the Bundestag. Scholz may very quickly find himself out of favour in his own coalition as the FDP and Greens have both previously suggested they support sending tanks to Ukraine.

The leaders of Europe's three biggest powers are a moral vacuum.

And Italy (4th biggest?) is rarely much better

Sean_F

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

If Le Pen can get up to 45% or so, she should carry about 40 Departments. It will be interesting to see how that spills over into the Legislative elections.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Note also that Switzerland have vetoed re-export to Ukraine of their manufactured ammunition for German armoured vehicles.

India will presumably take note of supplier reliability if and when then replace Russia as a supplier for their armed forces.

Foxy

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

If Le Pen can get up to 45% or so, she should carry about 40 Departments. It will be interesting to see how that spills over into the Legislative elections.

Her party doesn't do well unless she is on the ballot.

IshmaelZ

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vonc by the HoC presumably, supported by more than 50% of Tories, and all of everybody else

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vote of confidence in the new PM, at a guess.

The Queen could of course just fire him on the grounds that he no longer had the confidence of the House.

Dura_Ace

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

If Le Pen can get up to 45% or so, she should carry about 40 Departments. It will be interesting to see how that spills over into the Legislative elections.

Her vile old man lost five presidential elections so she'll definitely be back next time.

kle4

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

If he lost a challenge his resigning as PM would become a moot point, since it would mean he has lost the confidence of the Commons by default - at least 50%+1 of his MPs, plus every other MP in the Chamber.

kle4

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

If Le Pen can get up to 45% or so, she should carry about 40 Departments. It will be interesting to see how that spills over into the Legislative elections.

Her vile old man lost five presidential elections so she'll definitely be back next time.

Sure, but her dad was losing in a low key way for most of those elections - whilst only 10% or so off in terms of first round score for his last couple, he wasn't the main challenger to the President in all but one it seems. And the one following that saw a marked decline, as if the public were saying he'd outstayed his welcome.

Can Marine really keep pushing on as the challenger when losing in the runoff, heavily, twice?

Andy_JS

Eabhal said:

On travel, I'm sorting out a Hebridean bike tour at the moment and it's just so frustrating that some of the best hostels are still closed due to a lack of social distancing.

Don't forget the enormous impact restrictions have had on the Highland (and Welsh/Lakes?) economies.

That is silly. There's already plenty of social distancing in the Hebrides.

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vonc by the HoC presumably, supported by more than 50% of Tories, and all of everybody else

Would be a gift to Labour. Siding with the Tory backbenches to uphold democracy against a wannabe dictator? All of Starmer's Christmases would have come at once.

Sean_F

kle4 said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

Supposed to be fatal last word, stupid kle4

If Le Pen can get up to 45% or so, she should carry about 40 Departments. It will be interesting to see how that spills over into the Legislative elections.

Her vile old man lost five presidential elections so she'll definitely be back next time.

Sure, but her dad was losing in a low key way for most of those elections - whilst only 10% or so off in terms of first round score for his last couple, he wasn't the main challenger to the President in all but one it seems. And the one following that saw a marked decline, as if the public were saying he'd outstayed his welcome.

Can Marine really keep pushing on as the challenger when losing in the runoff, heavily, twice?

If she goes from 34% to 45%, I'm sure she'll try again next time.

williamglenn

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

glw

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

ydoethur

glw said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

I don't think it would be a disaster for her. Would be a disaster for the rest of us.

FrancisUrquhart

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.

Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.

Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).

Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG2JAOdOt4s

biggles

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

The legislative elections do have the potential to be a wild card I think. There again, France is always ungovernable - it’s full of French people.

ydoethur

biggles said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

The legislative elections do have the potential to be a wild card I think. There again, France is always ungovernable - it’s full of French people.

You missed the bit about Joan of Arc and good matches.*

*An anachronism, of course, as matches as we understand them did not exist until 1826.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

biggles said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

The legislative elections do have the potential to be a wild card I think. There again, France is always ungovernable - it’s full of French people.

You missed the bit about Joan of Arc and good matches.*

*An anachronism, of course, as matches as we understand them did not exist until 1826.

Our expert on flints must be napping.....

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.

Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.

Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).

Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG2JAOdOt4s

The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

glw said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

I don't think it would be a disaster for her. Would be a disaster for the rest of us.

It would be a (further) disaster for Ukraine.

Nigelb

williamglenn said:

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

NYT has an interview with the unrepentant Schroeder
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

NYT has an interview with the unrepentant Schroeder
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Presumably he wasn’t asked how much he’s been paid by Russia, since he left political office in Germany.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vote of confidence in the new PM, at a guess.

The Queen could of course just fire him on the grounds that he no longer had the confidence of the House.

It would be made very clear that he could no longer remain as PM by Queen's advisors rather than a formal sacking I think. He might push it by attempting a confidence vote of whole House, but that would be just about delaying.

The Queen will avoid a political decision at all costs.

What she does if he attempts to prorogue parliament for weeks/months in order to avoid a test of confidence in the House and then refuses to leave Downing Street is another issue.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

glw said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

I don't think it would be a disaster for her. Would be a disaster for the rest of us.

I think it would be a disaster for her. Right wing Populist manifestoes fall apart fairly quickly in government.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

NYT has an interview with the unrepentant Schroeder
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Presumably he wasn’t asked how much he’s been paid by Russia, since he left political office in Germany.

He’s very clear about doing it for the money.
Scumbag.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vote of confidence in the new PM, at a guess.

The Queen could of course just fire him on the grounds that he no longer had the confidence of the House.

It would be made very clear that he could no longer remain as PM by Queen's advisors rather than a formal sacking I think. He might push it by attempting a confidence vote of whole House, but that would be just about delaying.

The Queen will avoid a political decision at all costs.

What she does if he attempts to prorogue parliament for weeks/months in order to avoid a test of confidence in the House and then refuses to leave Downing Street is another issue.

He can't do the former. Supreme Court ruling 2019 rules it out.

The latter? He can be dragged out by the bailiffs like any other evicted tenant.

But I don't know why we're talking about this. It isn't going to happen.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

glw said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

I don't think it would be a disaster for her. Would be a disaster for the rest of us.

I think it would be a disaster for her. Right wing Populist manifestoes fall apart fairly quickly in government.

So she just blames it all on subversive elements and carries on.

FeersumEnjineeya

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

And Germany has taken in over 360,000 Ukrainian refugees.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Andrea Parma says 52/48 to Macron in French Polynesia, which is almost unchanged on 2017.

My bad, I confused it with New Caledonia. That's a 7% swing to Le Pen, compared to 2017.

ydoethur said:

IshmaelZ said:

Poring

Why do we have alleged results from the comedy territories when they are behind us timewise?

Overseas departments vote a day ahead.

https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/en/how-to-vote

But the results are not due to be released before 7pm GMT.

The results have often been leaked to Belgian media ahead of official release. I'd dismiss it all as hearsay, were it not for the fact that it's Andrea Parma who's reported them.

OK, it's overseas territories, so not huge in the scheme of things, and maybe not very indicative.

But if Macron keeps the overall swing down to 7%, that's still a 60:40 win, which he will be fairly happy with I guess.

Polls have been trending away from Le Pen for the last fortnight, and underestimated Macron last time. I think the undecideds will jump that way as voting for Le Pen requires a lot more mental effort. I think the Melenchon vote will go substantially to Macron like last time. More of it is soft left and/or Muslim than before.

I'd say mid 40s represents a great result for Le Pen (fatal last win if she springs a massive shock), anything under 40 a terrible result, even if it is still up on last time.

I know you corrected it later but 'fatal last win' was a gloriously pertinent typo!

Sean_F

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

glw said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

While we shouldn't read too much into the vote from the French overseas territories, it might suggest than in places where Macron did poorly in the first round, he's less likely to pick up transfers from Melenchon. The final result could be extremely geographically divided.

The nightmare scenario is rural areas going and voting for Le Pen while a lack of enthusiasm for Macron depresses turnout in Paris and among Muslims. Could end up a very tight result in either direction.

We here are left cheering for the awful (and deeply Anglophobe) Macron because his opponent is embedded in Putin's lower colon.

And the French have the temerity to laugh at our politics?

Was the choice between Corbyn and Johnson any better?

Yes definitely. Nobody should take Le Pen lightly, it would be a disaster for her to be elected.

I don't think it would be a disaster for her. Would be a disaster for the rest of us.

I think it would be a disaster for her. Right wing Populist manifestoes fall apart fairly quickly in government.

I expect her reaction would be like Mitterand's, on being told his approval rating had hit 18%:

"Given that I am President for the next five years, I'd say that's a problem for the 82%, rather than a problem for me."

Nigelb

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

And Germany has taken in over 360,000 Ukrainian refugees.

I'm no expert on German politics, but there does seem to be a split between the parties on how to deal with Russia.
Which is understandable given the discomfort of discovering your foreign policy of decades was a journey down a blind alley.

ping

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.

Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.

Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).

Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG2JAOdOt4s

The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706

We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.

Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.

Dark clouds hang over Europe.

ydoethur

It has not been Ferrari's day, has it?

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

And Germany has taken in over 360,000 Ukrainian refugees.

I'm no expert on German politics, but there does seem to be a split between the parties on how to deal with Russia.
Which is understandable given the discomfort of discovering your foreign policy of decades was a journey down a blind alley.

Especially when being told how stupid that journey was.

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

NYT has an interview with the unrepentant Schroeder
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Presumably he wasn’t asked how much he’s been paid by Russia, since he left political office in Germany.

He’s very clear about doing it for the money.
Scumbag.

Could be worse.

He could have gone off to work for Facebook....

DoubleCarpet

First French results in

Afternoon all, if not already posted the first French results are already in (via Belgian media )

Most of the western hemisphere DOM-TOM where Melenchon did very well in Round 1 have gone heavily for Le Pen, below is her score and change on Round 2 2017:

Guadeloupe 69.6 +44.7
Martinique 60.9 +38.4
Guiana 60.7 +25.6
Saint Martin/Saint Barthélemy 55.4 +20.5
Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50.7 +14.0

French Polynesia Macron 51.8 Le Pen +6.6

The Belgian early reporting of results (as opposed to vote projections) seemed to be accurate for round 1.

Thanks

DC

rottenborough

ping said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.

Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.

Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).

Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG2JAOdOt4s

The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706

We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.

Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.

Dark clouds hang over Europe.

I don't see how we don't get dragged in to this, especially if, as it appears, Russia is having a collective nervous breakdown and they seem desperate to have a war to end all wars with the West and have done with it.

I am trying to prepare myself for us being in by late summer. Bleak times.

Taz

ping said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

Ukraine have outlined what they need and why they need it. Now the Russian tactics have changed, it isn't simply about weapons, weapons, weapons.

Ukraine have stated the specifics of the types of weaponry they require, different countries have different elements of this, none of the kit they actually have asked Germany for has been sent.

Its left to the US to provide more of the heavy weapons (and seems in combination with UK surveillance to assist with its usage).

Ukraine War: Heavy weapons heading to Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG2JAOdOt4s

The UK is expected to deliver 20 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers and 45,000 shells to Ukraine this week. The equipment will be first send to Poland, where Ukrainian troops will train on them.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1518205018230472706

We’re reaching the point where the war is at serious risk of metastasising.

Just an observation, not a comment on whether we/the poles are doing the right thing.

Dark clouds hang over Europe.

Yes, you have to wonder. At this stage there are no good options. It could very quickly escalate. The Ukraine govt and top level US diplomats are about to have discussions and more arms will be supplied. One has to wonder what the exit strategy is for Putin and Russia.

SeaShantyIrish2

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

@sikorskiradek
Every Polish government since 2005 communicated to every German politician they met that Nordstream put German economic interests ahead of the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
I said so publicly to Chancellor Merkel at the Munich Security Conference.

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1518117138271281155

NYT has an interview with the unrepentant Schroeder
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Presumably he wasn’t asked how much he’s been paid by Russia, since he left political office in Germany.

Perhaps you could read the actual article, which has this subhead:

"Gerhard Schröder, who is paid almost $1 million a year by Russian-controlled energy companies, has become a pariah. But he is also a symbol of Germany’s Russia policy."

MrEd

Sean_F said:

https://www.facebook.com/gi0rtn/posts/10160037590461948

It was this piece from Gerry Lynch that persusaded me that Le Pen is good value, as a bet. To be clear, Gerry Lynch detests everything that Le Pen stands for, (he's an Alliance Party activists) but he is an outstanding number cruncher.

Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on Le Pen at the moment. While I get the point about it's hard to see the polls offering anything but a Macron win, I'm not sure that's right in a 2 horse-race. The other bet that might be attractive is 9/4 at Macron winning 50-55% share if you think he'll win but abstentions will hit his margin.

MarqueeMark

DoubleCarpet said:

First French results in

Afternoon all, if not already posted the first French results are already in (via Belgian media )

Most of the western hemisphere DOM-TOM where Melenchon did very well in Round 1 have gone heavily for Le Pen, below is her score and change on Round 2 2017:

Guadeloupe 69.6 +44.7
Martinique 60.9 +38.4
Guiana 60.7 +25.6
Saint Martin/Saint Barthélemy 55.4 +20.5
Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50.7 +14.0

French Polynesia Macron 51.8 Le Pen +6.6

Thanks

DC

Where's the spreadsheet when you need it.....

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Early general election so Johnson can quit more quickly?

What's the plan if there's a tory leadership challenge which Johnson loses but he doesn’t resign as PM?

Vote of confidence in the new PM, at a guess.

The Queen could of course just fire him on the grounds that he no longer had the confidence of the House.

It would be made very clear that he could no longer remain as PM by Queen's advisors rather than a formal sacking I think. He might push it by attempting a confidence vote of whole House, but that would be just about delaying.

The Queen will avoid a political decision at all costs.

What she does if he attempts to prorogue parliament for weeks/months in order to avoid a test of confidence in the House and then refuses to leave Downing Street is another issue.

He can't do the former. Supreme Court ruling 2019 rules it out.

The latter? He can be dragged out by the bailiffs like any other evicted tenant.

But I don't know why we're talking about this. It isn't going to happen.

I suspect the thought that he might refuse to leave is in part based on the Trump experience.

SeaShantyIrish2

Bit of comic relief

NYT ($) - Tucker Carlson Has a Cure for Declining Virility
A promo for an upcoming Fox show describes a testosterone “calamity” among American men, along with an unlikely treatment.

Wonder if this Fucker has given free samples to his buddies Putin and 45?

Certainly seems to me he & they have all got serious drooping pecker problem.

IshmaelZ

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

https://www.facebook.com/gi0rtn/posts/10160037590461948

It was this piece from Gerry Lynch that persusaded me that Le Pen is good value, as a bet. To be clear, Gerry Lynch detests everything that Le Pen stands for, (he's an Alliance Party activists) but he is an outstanding number cruncher.

Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on Le Pen at the moment. While I get the point about it's hard to see the polls offering anything but a Macron win, I'm not sure that's right in a 2 horse-race. The other bet that might be attractive is 9/4 at Macron winning 50-55% share if you think he'll win but abstentions will hit his margin.

18.5 betfair exchange. just had a tenner.

FeersumEnjineeya

Nigelb said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if the UK was doing this....

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, claimed to be delivering on his promise to send arms to Ukraine — but was revealed by the tabloid Bild to have secretly refused every item of heavy equipment requested by Kyiv. After Scholz had crossed tanks and artillery off the list, an aid package said to be worth €1 billion (£836 million) had been reduced by more than two thirds.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/arrogant-incompetent-corrupt-war-shattering-delusions-german/

Party hats and Soviet era defective and mouldy weapons. While they sold actual useful arms to Russia.

Though what Germany has actually sorted isn't insignificant:

And Germany has taken in over 360,000 Ukrainian refugees.

I'm no expert on German politics, but there does seem to be a split between the parties on how to deal with Russia.
Which is understandable given the discomfort of discovering your foreign policy of decades was a journey down a blind alley.

I lived in Germany from 1998 to 2008, but I've not really kept up with the politics since then. Although I tend towards the left, I disliked Schroeder with a passion. Completely self-centred, devoid of morals and increasingly detached from reality during his time in office, he was from the same mould as Trump and Johnson.

In general, German policy towards Russia seemed to be guided by efforts to atone for WW2. Now though there is a dawning realisation that these good intentions crossed the line into naivity. The rapprochement with Russia is over (aside from the AfD and Linke nutters. Edit: and a few in the SDP).