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If this polling doesn’t change then hello PM Starmer – politicalbetting.com
If this polling doesn’t change then hello PM Starmer – politicalbetting.com
YouGov earlier this week had the Cons level pegging with Lab on the economy. Now we have this from Ipsos:https://t.co/xTbhsD49x4 pic.twitter.com/9OJ8jaG1VF
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F1: will chekc for penalties/weather then peruse the markets. Not got any firm idea at the moment. Was interested to see how well Bottas did in the sprint, though.
Even though Starmer is impressive and would be a far better PM than Johnson, the Corbyn legacy runs very deep in the labour party, and puts people off, and this may still be a factor in the next general election.
I think the tories will try and blame the cost of living crisis on Putin, and it may just work. The support for the war in Ukraine seems to be quite popular, I walked across a council estate on Friday, lots of Ukrainian flags everywhere.
The SAS is 'considered one of the most highly qualified in the world in organising coups d'etat, mass protest rallies, contract killings of political figures, recruiting agents, including those in the highest echelons of power, and preparing terrorist attacks', said the RIA Novosti report.
I mean, considering they’ve been doing that with the FSB for years, to say that the SAS are better is quite a compliment.
https://youtu.be/p7C9omHgE88
Betting PostF1: backed Bottas to be top 6 at 2.1
Had a good race yesterday and was within half a second of Ricciardo at the end. He and the Aussie were the most impressive chaps in the midfield, I think.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/04/imola-pre-race-2022.html
However it is still likely to be close, we are not heading for 1997 2 more 2010 or 1964 2
I'm guessing last night's Opinium offered some comfort but their changed methodology is not yet proven and I'm always wary of polling taking over bank holiday weekends/Christmas/Easter.
This is the killer final paragraph from TSE with which I totally concur:
'For as long as I’ve been active in politics (and even before then, particularly in 1992) there’s been a tranche of voters who consider the Conservatives as utter bastards but still vote for them because they know how to run an economy. The last time the Conservatives lost their reputation for economic competence they were out of power for thirteen years as Labour racked up eye watering majorities in 1997 and 2001 and a comfortable majority in 2005. I feel comfortable with my Labour most seats position at the next election betting strategy.'
https://twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1517939116675145729?s=21&t=uYt7XsAj8w0XxWuljVmNog
A point of order on rcs comment that if the war ends, oil and gas prices will collapse. Maybe. Rather depends on the circumstances.
I personally find it hard to imagine that Putin can now outlive the sanctions (and self-sanctions) being applied on Russian oil products (extraction capex and tech, trade, shipping and shipping insurance, port services etc…). And even if he goes, he might be replaced with a headliner. And as for the gas, surely we’re now at the point where short of a full blown Russian Spring, the Germans (and Europe) will be diversifying away from Russian even though it will cost them a lot more.
Starmer spending too long on Partygate? The pandemic is now a historical event in the Uk and one that almost no one wants to dwell on further. Every time Starmer talks about covid rule breaking, all to serves for do is further attach Starmer’s image in the collective subconscious as a little sanctimonious and overly worthy, but also ties him to a period that none of us want to think about.
I know CHB and other Labour partisans are enjoying the mid term polls but if I were his strategist I’d be telling to keep quiet now. The dissent in the Tory ranks over parliamentary missteps is already there and the process will now take its course. He’s in real danger of cementing his brand in an electorally unfavourable fashion. Sunny uplands are the key to winning a change election. Not grey clouds and finger wagging.
It shows a government out of touch. It is Boris who has mishandled this. Starmer is absolutely correct to keep lifting the lid on the stench.
Can you entertain us further by pointing us to any one of a policy, idea or principle of the PM?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-bulbs-blowout-left-taxpayers-with-a-2bn-energy-bill-dbzcjcd78
Normally they flew a Chinese flag, because they're very left wing.
I prefer the Ukrainian one for all sorts of reasons...
"Ukraine spent seven years begging three PMs for weapons — and no one listened
Cameron, May and Johnson all thought they could contain Putin. How wrong they were"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-spent-seven-years-begging-three-pms-for-weapons-and-no-one-listened-58t5m9kkq
I simply have no idea how Starmer and Labour would ever take hard and difficult decisions especially over public sector wages, and just where their income comes from seeing they oppose every tax rise and of course face a 19% tax rate from 2024
Everything they say is that we will spend more, and now even on defence spending, and it is this uncontested and even surreal environment Labour live in and while they may get away with it now it will be very different when they have to come clean in a GE
They also have issues like brexit, immigration, and yes, transgender controversy to confront
I really have no idea how GE24 will play out, indeed I do not know if Boris will be PM by the end of may
My prediction for tonight: Macron 58, Le Pen 42. I have a good green position if he makes 60%+, or if Le Pen pulls off a polling upset.
On a somewhat brighter note, mask wearing has definitely dropped off in the three weeks I’ve been here. I noticed it in Barcelona, but thought that may have been a big city effect. I can really see the change back here in Girona though; I’ve been to three cafés so far this morning and none of the ladies who’ve served me have worn one, my hotel receptionists last night and this morning weren’t, and from about one in three or four wearing them out on the street it’s dropped to about one in twenty. I love seeing more smiles 😀
Those poor discriminated-against second home-owners.
Many departments are either just finishing holidays or just starting them . I wouldn’t have thought this would favour Macron but more helpful to Le Pen as more of the formers voters would actually be able to afford a holiday and would be away from home .
https://www.theflagshop.co.uk/flags.html
There are very few around here on private houses as OLB notes. But then there are always very few flags of any type in the inner suburbs. The occasional England one during football tournaments (but generally not otherwise, unlike on the other side of the Shooters Hill county lines), one or two Palestinian ones inside student windows. There used to be an Israeli flag in an upstairs window on Breakspears road but that’s gone. There also used to be EU flags between 2016 and 2019 but they got quietly packed away.
Out in Kent there are many more Ukrainian flags and just generally more flags, including on actual American style front garden flagpoles.
The state equivalent of taking a PLC private - like Elon Musk buying Twitter.
Mao was a Communist.
China worships Mao
Therefore China is Communist.
I haven't yet said 'hello puss' to their dog, but give me time...
I'm visiting family in various bits of the southwest this week - will look out for election posters and flags...
Because the police said it was legal.
Because the local PCC was boozing with him?
Lovely morning here, and yesterday one of the pubs had a 'Support Ukraine' day with music and food. Did quite well I understand. I can confirm that the beer was good!
Not a lot of flags in this small town but the Facebook says people are getting ready to welcome a couple of refugee families.
They've been delayed, though, and our MP, one P Patel, has not been of much help!
No elections, but I gather things are quite lively in our neighbours to the North-East, Colchester.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1518126842934448129?t=R5mVCX6m7ndibBIUPa96xw&s=19
I hope this experience doesn’t put off a single person like me, with a background like mine from aspiring to participate in public life.
That would break my heart. 💔
We need more people in politics with backgrounds like mine - and fewer as a hobby to help their mates.
7/9
I wonder if a side effect of this might be a more sympathetic hearing given to people motivated by other global issues.
This might be unfair, but I get the impression that some of those flying the Ukrainian flag perhaps didn’t understand the motivations of those flying Palestinian flags.
Starting to become a pain to keep watering all the seedlings in small pots and trays.
Of course, there is the cost of living crisis brought about by inflation like we haven't seen in 20 years, led by politically sensitive rises in fuel and gas with food in danger of falling on behind. What people think Labour can do about these things I am really not sure. Most come from international pressures, not least because of sanctions on Russia and the disruption of food harvests in Ukraine itself.
Labour's policies seem to me to be a windfall tax on north sea producers at a time that we want them to significantly increase investment and, ehm, I am not really sure. They seem to want to increase public spending in a variety of ways, notably health, further increasing demand in an economy running pretty near capacity giving an extra spin to inflation.
What I think we are actually seeing is that people are pretty unhappy. Wages are rising strongly but are being significantly outpaced by prices and most are seeing a difficult squeeze in their budgets. Those on fixed incomes or benefits are doing even worse. So they blame the government and hope something different would be better. When you add general dissatisfaction that the PM is a lying b****** it is hardly surprising that they do not give the government the benefit of the doubt. But Labour's cupboard looks pretty bare to me.
https://twitter.com/gtmac786/status/1517984514643042306
And the best the Tories have to offer if Johnson departs, is someone else with no policies, ideas, or principles, tainted by having previously supported a disingenuous liar who is not fit for office.
I think this proves TSE's point.
Anyway working girl Angie is wasting her time. Johnson prefers posh *****... like Jacob Rees Mogg.
Putting up NI on workers to allow the elderly to keep more of their assets is an example of this.