politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll in South of Scotland are finds NO 67% to
New ComRes IndyRef poll for @ITVBorder of South of Scotland finds NO 67% YES 33%
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First?0
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Border Scots. Quel peuple magnifique!0
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Have they polled this before? Change on last?0
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F1: nice video of Coulthard and Vettel around the Sochi track:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29094820
I'll be checking the odds on a safety car. Narrow, high speed, not much run off, and the track seems a bit slippery (not uncommon with new surfaces).0 -
Pretty much fits in with my prediction by area.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0
(I need to increase the electorate slightly to fit in with today's announcement that 4.3 million are registered to vote).0 -
What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)0
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Jackie Bird was pretty grumpy at the 1830 yesterday wasn't she??
I can't believe sky sent poor Faisal to Edinburgh though - all the Azn's are in weegie land aren't they???
Please ignore me - I'm just waiting for my 1900 RT Programme.0 -
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
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This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.0 -
...obviously not real Scots..traitorous scum0
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Cameron should annexe the Borders Putin style to protect these people.
Add on Shetland and Morningside and that leaves Eck with the Castlemilk to Dundee corridor
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South of Scotland - is that the new word for England?
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MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.0 -
Au contraire - the settled will of the Borders is to stay in the Uk. Indy Scotland just got smaller.Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.0 -
There may be other candidates for the crown but I admit I can't think of one off the top of my head.Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.0 -
It's not even the South of Scotland, it's the tiny proportion (around 5%) of Scotland that get ITV Border.0
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Numerous.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
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Quite. It's a bit like just polling malcolmg.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
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Extrapolating from 1997 suggests a clear 'NO' nationally...0
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Lol. I can imagine how twitter rumours of such a poll might shift the markets.Ishmael_X said:
Quite. It's a bit like just polling malcolmg.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
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When is the last day that polls will be allowed?
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Such as?MonikerDiCanio said:
Numerous.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.0 -
That would make completing the Donalds considerably easier.TGOHF said:Cameron should annexe the Borders Putin style to protect these people.
Add on Shetland and Morningside and that leaves Eck with the Castlemilk to Dundee corridor0 -
We're getting a fresh Scottish thread at 1830.
If only Team OGH could always be so kind to us poor PB Scots residing in Scotland.0 -
Read the header.__Bobajob__ said:
Such as?MonikerDiCanio said:
Numerous.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
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In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
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The voodoo poll of Scottish mothers run by Mumsnet was the hot contender for the crown of worst Scottish poll, but this one has stolen the wooden spoon from its mouth.Boab said:It's not even the South of Scotland, it's the tiny proportion (around 5%) of Scotland that get ITV Border.
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[There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]
Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.0 -
The header that merely states the poll numbers?MonikerDiCanio said:
Read the header.__Bobajob__ said:
Such as?MonikerDiCanio said:
Numerous.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
Tomorrow: a YouGov poll of Richard Navabi's back garden sees Tories in lead.0 -
Twitter is afire with allegations that Galloway compared either Yes voters or the SNP to Nazi's. Galloway strongly and categorically denies. Unfortunately no live feed of the debate, just the edited version the BBC will put out tonight.0
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Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.
As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.
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Miss C, not a Scot, but I think it'd take multiple polls showing a massive No lead for any relaxation to possibly occur. I think both sides will turn out in force. Should make polling beforehand quite tricky given perhaps a quarter of those voting won't have bothered even at the last General Election.0
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They have ran this poll twice previously....Beverley_C said:Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.
As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.
They had it....
71/31
70/30
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Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?JBriskin said:[There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]
Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.0 -
Nobody lives in the Borders, Bev. Best to embrace OGH's trolling - and maximise your heel post count.0
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Not really. As we can now see, Devomax would be wholly unacceptable to the other countries in the Union. It's in the bin.SeanT said:
Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.saddened said:
In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax,
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"Au contraire - the settled will of the Borders is to stay in the Uk. Indy Scotland just got smaller. "
This confirms my view, TGOFH, that in the event of a Yes vote, we can use the Putin Gambit and go rescue our Unionist brethren in The Borders. No?0 -
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I will not argue the point MD, I will just point out that in any series of things there has to be a first one.Morris_Dancer said:Miss C, not a Scot, but I think it'd take multiple polls showing a massive No lead for any relaxation to possibly occur. I think both sides will turn out in force. Should make polling beforehand quite tricky given perhaps a quarter of those voting won't have bothered even at the last General Election.
;-)
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How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?0
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I think we're talking slightly at cross purposes - I'm saying the issues are already there. If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.saddened said:
Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?JBriskin said:[There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]
Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.
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"Brass plating" the financial institutions in the event of a "Yes" will not be enough,there will be huge resentment from rUK ,and a rush away from all things Scottish by those South of the border.
Yes I know,I am a stupid ignorant southern jessie turnip,but I for one will be reorganising my affairs in the event of a "Yes",and I am not alone.
I hope for a "No",but will deal with a "Yes".0 -
Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
LOL. You might as well poll the most Welsh speaking village in North West Snowdonia and decree that the Welsh union is held together by blu tack.SeanT said:
Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.saddened said:
In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax, which was then exploited by the devious, amoral, entirely mendacious Alex Salmond.0 -
A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax
The Devomax sums do not add up. A bunch of scots voting themselves benefits they can't afford and the english won;t pay.0 -
Miss C, fair enough. Aren't we due the next poll (Scotland-wide) in a few hours?0
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The Borders is very sparsely populated - I should know, I was at school there for a few years - but, still, this is encouraging.
Rod; what numbers does your national extrapolation churn out off the back of this?0 -
This is a poll about 'do you want to be independent and stand on your own two feet' not a poll on 'do you want more power and more free money from England'. Right from the outset there has been more devolution on offer. But that affects the English as well.SeanT said:
Yes. This poll is a recipe for the Partition of Scotland, let alone GB. Whatever happens there will be irreconcilables who will continue the fight, perhaps literally.saddened said:
In that it highlights how divided Scotland will be regardless of the final result. Dickheads, examples of which can be seen on here, will be unable to just accept the result. There are going to be real issues come next Friday.__Bobajob__ said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
@Moniker - informative in what way?Speedy said:This ranks as the most useless opinion poll in history.
If you are doing an opinion poll on an election or referendum were the outcome is determined on a certain area, then you should poll the whole area not just a small fraction of it.
A catastrophic mistake by Cameron not to allow Devomax, which was then exploited by the devious, amoral, entirely mendacious Alex Salmond.
As for the Borders poll. Malcolmg may be happy to be condesending on numbers, but land are counts too (its the land which makes up the country after all) and it would hardly help a newly independent Scotland if the greater part of the land area voted No with just a narrow central belt voting Yes.
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This bad boy from ComRes not enough for you Rob?RobD said:How many indyref polls are we expecting tonight?
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Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?0
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Nationalism frequently ends in division, poison and tears. Salmond appeals to emotions, things like love, hate, jealousy, greed. Nationalism often tends to be a selfish movement, narrow minded and intolerant.MonikerDiCanio said:
Because it's interesting and informative. Once you start on Salmond's road of division , grudge and grievance, you're on a highway to hell.__Bobajob__ said:What is the point of this poll? (Unless we have a nationwide comparison)
Salmond is hoodwinking people into thinking patriotism is the same as nationalism. They are not, one is benign, the other, which he espouses is a cancerous growth devouring reason to feed it's passion.0 -
My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.Grandiose said:Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
True it will give the no camp the opportunity to start their we told you so campaign. Let's face it Salmond promising a unicorn for every voter is going to rapidly come unstuck when it meets reality head on. The idea that everybody is going to come together behind the great leader in a mass outpouring of emotion is laughable.JBriskin said:
. If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.saddened said:
Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?JBriskin said:[There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]
Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.0 -
Yes. 1951Grandiose said:Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
For those not in the East, Andrew Sinclair is BBC Look East's political correspondent.JosiasJessop said:
My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.Grandiose said:Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
"Scottish independence: voting intention across Scotland mapped
Voting intention data mapped across Scotland shows that the race remains too close to call"
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped0 -
There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.
And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)0 -
North East EssexGrandiose said:Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
I was initially arguing that it's a mess now - and it will be a mess then (post next Friday)saddened said:
True it will give the no camp the opportunity to start their we told you so campaign. Let's face it Salmond promising a unicorn for every voter is going to rapidly come unstuck when it meets reality head on. The idea that everybody is going to come together behind the great leader in a mass outpouring of emotion is laughable.JBriskin said:
. If anything a yes vote will give hundred of thousands of people something actually constructive to work on.saddened said:
Yes it is. Friday will be day one of the great scapegoat. If it's a narrow no, who will get the blame? If it's a narrow yes, do you really think the no campaigners will just shut up and meekly follow the great leader?JBriskin said:[There are going to be real issues come next Friday.]
Next Friday?? There's been at the very least 6 months of Full Retard in the Demos. Election day ain't going to change that.
Congratulations - you have inspired my inner devils advocate.
I honestly don't think it can get much worse than now - things can only get better. If it's a yes then obviously people won't be going all pro-eck all of a sudden. But at least it will give them some economic/high politic ideology to work on - rather than - well whatever the F is happening now.
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You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll0
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A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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I'm at London bridge now. Parts of the station still open and some trains runining, so probably nothing too serious.0
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Easteross my apologies for the delayed response, but thank you for your erudite response about Mrs T. Great and informative anecdotes about her involvement in Scottish affairs.
I do think the Conservative Party's passion for unionism, well this type of unionism, is an illogical weakness.0 -
It's possible the result on the day will end up very close to the long-term polling average: something like 58-42 NO/YES on an 80% turnout.0
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One poll this year has put Yes ahead. If the number remains at one it seems like a no-brainer to me that No will win.SeanT said:
And vice versa, maybe....AndyJS said:
However the enormous registration numbers mean we can't take anything for granted until the 19th. This vote is sui generis. Very difficult to poll.0 -
No, the fieldwork will finish tonight, they will publish it on their website tomorrow, for publication for the Saturday print edition.SeanT said:
But that means ICM should be on the Guardian website before midnight.TheScreamingEagles said:There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.
And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)0 -
From my experience on the ground, so to speak - it's mainly just anti-labour. Sorry, commenting on a website like this I should maybe know more - but I don't.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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Aha!Boab said:
They have ran this poll twice previously....Beverley_C said:Surely the point of this poll is that the area in question has been poorly surveyed previously by other polls? The numbers of people are less than the population of the Central Belt but it cannot be disregarded - not with divisions of 60 / 70 / 80%.
As I see it, this poll destroys the view that the Yes/No is 50/50. The danger is that it may relax voters in the NO camp into a complacency that things are not as bad as they thought and so there is less urgency to vote.
They had it....
71/31
70/30
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.
But it does got that swing, even if a bit MOEishly.
Fieldwork 3-9 Sept and the previous polls were June and January.
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I'm deep in the suburbs now Sean but it's a bomb scare according to Twitter. Some nutter wailing threats too apparentlySeanT said:London Bridge Station evacuated.... just now according to C4....
and it is 9/110 -
On topic
ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h
New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref0 -
I got the impression it was Mr G telling the youngsters they'd be speaking German if the UK had ben divided durng WW2 or something. Which is not, of course, the same as equating Yes voters to the Germans, or the SNP to the NSDAP. But whatever it was, it did not go down well. His performance evidently did not satisfy and he was metaphorically told to away and drink his milk (or so I suppose, rather than eat his cereal*).Alistair said:Twitter is afire with allegations that Galloway compared either Yes voters or the SNP to Nazi's. Galloway strongly and categorically denies. Unfortunately no live feed of the debate, just the edited version the BBC will put out tonight.
*Refers to Patronising BT Lady TV ad, for those who don't know.
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History shows that London Bridge Station is always beiung evacuated. Amazingly in the midst of all this and to unexpected indefference, Oscar Pistorius has been found Not Guilty of murder.SeanT said:London Bridge Station evacuated.... just now according to C4....
and it is 9/110 -
Aberdonians fear and loathe central belt dominance above all else. Their opinion of Glaswegians isn't high.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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Last time it was on the Times website at 8.30pm, but I expect we'll have something by 10pmSeanT said:
Ah. OK. Ta.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, the fieldwork will finish tonight, they will publish it on their website tomorrow, for publication for the Saturday print edition.SeanT said:
But that means ICM should be on the Guardian website before midnight.TheScreamingEagles said:There's a YouGov poll indyref being released tonight.
And a ICM phone poll for the #indyref out tomorrow (for the Guardian)
So just one poll tonight. YouGov. What time does that normally emerge? Whenever Rupert is woken up for his milky tea and biscuit?0 -
My bestie is here so time for Retail Therapy.
Byeeee!!!!!!!
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He could be busy.__Bobajob__ said:0 -
Quite. A caveat, though - that's much more for the FPTP system at Westminster, not the Holyrood system.AndyJS said:
A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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They're using the same van they had for the a South Shields by election and haven't had a re spray by the look of it... Hardly a biggieJosiasJessop said:
My Lord, if that's true then it proves that the UKIP leadership are not loonies, but 100% certifiably insane.Grandiose said:Tonight is the open primary in Clacton.
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 20m
Around 200 people are at tonight's conservative primary. Around 75% non party members
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 15m
Ukip have a van outside the clacton primary which declares thst HS2 "won't help the north east" Do they know where they are?0 -
In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic
ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h
New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref
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Being on the ground, so to speak - I feel the need to add to this with my (as ever, all over the place, understanding)SeanT said:
Isn't it more the case that Aberdeen is the richest part of Scotland (oil), so they often vote for the "Tartan Tories" - the SNP - to keep out Labour?AndyJS said:
A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
However when it comes to indy we know the middle classes are firmly NO, including Aberdeen.
Aberdeen Shire - Is choocheterville, therefore Anti-labour, Therefore SNP (Salmond), Tory or Lib Dem.
Aberdeen - Labour
I have faith that the fabulous North East of Scotland will vote No!!!!
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ComRes aren't a voodoo pollsteraudreyanne said:
In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic
ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h
New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref0 -
Whispering sweet nothings to his best pal Eck.audreyanne said:
He could be busy.__Bobajob__ said:
Does anyone know what Mick Pork thinks of this cosy relationship?0 -
I am from Aberdeen and my dad was a Lib Dem councillor briefly. This is a wealthy and very independently minded place that distrusts Edinburgh as much as Westminster. It is pro royal due to Braemar, pro the army and mostly rural. In Aberdeen there are some really grim housing estates. Many more than you would expect. No this is not SNP heartland but will have some pockets of SNP strength. This is the kind of place which does not take arrogance or half truths well.AndyJS said:
A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the second reference: the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes aren't a voodoo pollsteraudreyanne said:
In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic
ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h
New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref0 -
Yeah, you get that from the polls where they break down Y/N for supporters of each party.AndyJS said:
A lot of people in Scotland vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories. In Aberdeenshire that's often been the SNP. It doesn't necessarily mean they're pro-independence.Danny565 said:Can someone who knows about Scottish politics explain something to me? I've heard that Aberdeenshire is expected to be one of the most heavily anti-independence areas, and indeed it was one of the most against devolution in the 1997 referendum. But isn't that the SNP's heartland of heartlands?
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It isn't, it is properly weighted for the region, has a proper sample size.audreyanne said:
Indeed they aren't. I was referring to, and quoting from, the ITV Border poll which is just a gigantic pile of poo.TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes aren't a voodoo pollsteraudreyanne said:
In the breathless excitement of yesterday's news the voodoo pollsters emerge from the shadows.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic
ComRes @ComResPolls · 1h
New @ITVBorder poll sees 3% swing to Yes in southern Scotland since June http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1257/itv-border-referendum-poll.htm … #indyref0 -
From the Betfair money people are expecting bad news for Yes from the Poll0
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He's closing his eyes and thinking of Scotland.TheWatcher said:
Whispering sweet nothings to his best pal Eck.audreyanne said:
He could be busy.__Bobajob__ said:
Does anyone know what Mick Pork thinks of this cosy relationship?0 -
@BethRigby: EXCL: M&S poised to go over parapet. Marc Bolland to sign joint letter from retailers warning on rising costs if Scotland votes Yes #scotref
BluffingTipping Point0 -
So why doesnt the Foreign Secretary know what Govt policy re air strikes in Syria is?0
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Almost everywhere south of Edinburgh and Glasgow is likely to vote No, with one or two exceptions. Kilmarnock might be one.0
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I note with interest your predictions concerning the Scottish referendum. You may be interested to know that a young statistician (not me, obviously) from Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland gave a presentation last week in the RSS Conference on predicting it: he came up with similar figures to yours, incidentally. The link to the presentation is here (https://rss.conference-services.net/programme.asp?conferenceID=4023&action=prog_list&session=29966 ) but you will have to google hm further if you want the details.AndyJS said:Pretty much fits in with my prediction by area.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0
(I need to increase the electorate slightly to fit in with today's announcement that 4.3 million are registered to vote).
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You typed the above in less than 4 secs?TheScreamingEagles said:You will be delighted to know, I'm home now, and constantly refreshing the times website every 4 secs to see this Indyref poll
Or are you multi tasking?0 -
It is astonishing, look at the matched bets for the following marketsSeanT said:And it's gone already!
Hectic market.
Next GE most seats 437k
Next GE overall winner 270k
Indy ref winner £6.1million0 -
In 1987 the SNP lost both of its longstanding MPs to Labour but picked up 3 seats from the Tories in the north-east. The 32 year-old Salmond was one of them in Banff & Buchan.0
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well that's a turnip for the books.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is astonishing, look at the matched bets for the following marketsSeanT said:And it's gone already!
Hectic market.
Next GE most seats 437k
Next GE overall winner 270k
Indy ref winner £6.1million0
