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BoJo’s survival makes PM Keir a better bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,272
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    As I have already said the test is whether the ship rises again on the third day
    Guess we find out tomorrow!
    Russian Orthodox easter is another week I think.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    darkage said:

    Farooq said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    Don't vote for either of them at the next election :+1:
    If you want to vote for a party who are proven competent and reliable on defence, there is only one option in my view.
    I'm not sure who you think that is
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Bojo going will be slowly at first then quickly.

    Was always thus. I remember Thatcher’s fall.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,843

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    None with serious influence I think. Mist even backed out of the StW events.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,350
    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,436
    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    Under Jeremy Corbyn, Britain would have stayed in NATO, not cut the army like the Tories, blocked Russian money in politics and not stuffed the House of Lords with Russian spies.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    edited April 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    There will be Cyrenes blaring as medical staff deal with the fallout.
    If he hasn't got a navy, is he going to have to send for the Calvary?
    No, he'll ask his Welsh mate, so he'll have sent Urien to deal with it.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
    It's not just urban areas up for election in May
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797
    edited April 2022

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    Yeah this is the reality that some of us can see and bear the wounds of. The people who are the face of the labour party, ie your local Councillors, are often the product of the Corbynite/momentum infiltration of the labour party. Until Starmer expels them all, the labour party remain toxic.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Can somebody explain why legitimate asylum seekers are being deported to Rwanda? Can somebody explain the benefit to us, or them, of this policy? I don't understand it

    The theory is that if you arrive by a deprecated route (RIB across the channel), you will be sent to Rwanda. If you try and claim asylum by a non-deprecated route, you won't.

    Think snakes and ladders - if you land on 98, you go to 3....
    But if you are then proven to be a legitimate refugee, you end up being deported.

    Which is like deporting me to Rwanda. Explain the logic of that?
    Think Ducking Stool principle. If you drown you are innocent. If you survive you are guilty.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    There will be Cyrenes blaring as medical staff deal with the fallout.
    If he hasn't got a navy, is he going to have to send for the Calvary?
    No, he'll ask his Welsh mate, so he'll have sent Urien to deal with it.
    You're just longin' us to like that pun, huh?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    There will be Cyrenes blaring as medical staff deal with the fallout.
    If he hasn't got a navy, is he going to have to send for the Calvary?
    No, he'll ask his Welsh mate, so he'll have sent Urien to deal with it.
    You're just longin' us to like that pun, huh?
    Well, it would be nice, but there's no need to take a side if you don't want to.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422

    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
    I think they are predicting no net losses but 6 losses and 6 gains
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    darkage said:



    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    Yeah this is the reality that some of us can see and bear the wounds of. The people who are the face of the labour party, ie your local Councillors, are often the product of the Corbynite/momentum infiltration of the labour party. Until Starmer expels them all, the labour party remain toxic.
    I partially agree with you, but don't you see the Conservatives have also been infiltrated by the far right?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    stodge said:

    Just a bit of fun but if @StuartDickson wants to play the sub-samples game, looking at the equivalent YouGov poll in mid April 2018.

    Nationally Conservatives led Labour 43-38 so a 5% swing to Labour.

    In London, it was 51-34 to Labour compared with 47-27 now so a small swing to Labour. LDs up from 6 to 10 and Greens now 8.

    The 2018 London locals were 44-29-13- 8.6 (Con-Lab-LD- Green) so encouraging for both the LDs and Greens in the capital. The latter in particular are putting up over 800 candidates compared with 1302 for the LDs, 1755 for the Conservatives and it appears a full slate of 1817 Labour candidates.

    I think the Greens are going to have a good May, both in Scotland and England.

    Thank you for your slate of candidates statistics for London*. That alone is going to suppress the Green and Lib Dem overall result. Quite surprising that such significant parties cannot find a single soul to put their name on a ballot paper in so many wards.

    (*do you have similar numbers for Wales, NI, Scotland and England outwith London?)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,270

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    And there are plenty in the Conservatives who'd abolish all worker and environmental protections, privatise the NHS, and bring back hanging, the coal mines and smoking in pubs - *compulsory* smoking in pubs.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Barnet at 5/6 with Ladbrokes to turn labour is a bargain . Not only the national swing that is going to happen but the unwind of anti- Corbyn voters will be large in Barnet given its Jewish population
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,614
    Re: Alaska June 11 very special congressional primary, have some questions/doubts/caveats re: the new poll numbers cited below.

    However, am assuming it's not too far off base as it seems to confirm what I'm starting to sense: that out of 51 who filed, the FOUR most likely to make the primary cut, and advance to RCV election are"

    > Republican Sarah Palin
    > Independent Al Gross (former Democratic US Senate candidate)
    > Republican Nick Begich III (member of Democratic political dynasty)
    > Republican Tara Sweeney (Alaska Native was head of Bureau of Indian Affairs under 45)

    The last being most problematic, my theory is that she will get enough support from indigenous voters (possibly under-polled in recent survey) to make the Top 4.

    But WAY too early to tell what the hell is gonna happen over coming weeks up in America's Last Frontier!
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797
    Farooq said:

    darkage said:



    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    Yeah this is the reality that some of us can see and bear the wounds of. The people who are the face of the labour party, ie your local Councillors, are often the product of the Corbynite/momentum infiltration of the labour party. Until Starmer expels them all, the labour party remain toxic.
    I partially agree with you, but don't you see the Conservatives have also been infiltrated by the far right?
    They have their share of mad people and ideas, but the far right? I don't see it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,472

    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?

    At the risk of invoking the "a rogue poll is one you don't like the result of" - that is fairly out of line with the rest of the polls. Which have proved, in the first round, to be quite accurate.

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

    and all that.

    Your shock at the split among Melanchon supporters - given that the extreme left and right have been agreed on many policies for a long time, why are you surprised?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,270
    Farooq said:

    darkage said:

    Farooq said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    Don't vote for either of them at the next election :+1:
    If you want to vote for a party who are proven competent and reliable on defence, there is only one option in my view.
    I'm not sure who you think that is
    Me neither, but I'm keen to find out. Competent and reliable on anything sounds fabulous after these last few years.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    how certain are Sinn Fein to be largest party in the assembly elections . Ladbrokes have them at 1/5 .I dont know enough to bet either way on this but interested if anyone has any views
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,472

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,350

    how certain are Sinn Fein to be largest party in the assembly elections . Ladbrokes have them at 1/5 .I dont know enough to bet either way on this but interested if anyone has any views

    10-point lead, though narrowing a bit:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/opinion-poll-fianna-fáil-and-fine-gael-regain-ground-against-sinn-féin-1.4852008
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,914

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    As I have already said the test is whether the ship rises again on the third day
    Guess we find out tomorrow!
    Russian Orthodox easter is another week I think.
    Indeed it is, but the ship still went down two days ago…
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,270

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    Under Jeremy Corbyn, Britain would have stayed in NATO, not cut the army like the Tories, blocked Russian money in politics and not stuffed the House of Lords with Russian spies.
    And much better on Ukrainian refugees. Indeed all refugees.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    darkage said:

    Farooq said:

    darkage said:



    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Really? I reckon there are still plenty in Labour who would get us out of NATO even if it meant throwing Ukraine under Russian tank tracks...
    Yeah this is the reality that some of us can see and bear the wounds of. The people who are the face of the labour party, ie your local Councillors, are often the product of the Corbynite/momentum infiltration of the labour party. Until Starmer expels them all, the labour party remain toxic.
    I partially agree with you, but don't you see the Conservatives have also been infiltrated by the far right?
    They have their share of mad people and ideas, but the far right? I don't see it.
    I see it.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?

    At the risk of invoking the "a rogue poll is one you don't like the result of" - that is fairly out of line with the rest of the polls. Which have proved, in the first round, to be quite accurate.

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

    and all that.

    Your shock at the split among Melanchon supporters - given that the extreme left and right have been agreed on many policies for a long time, why are you surprised?
    That's not how Mélenchon voters broke five years ago.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Oh come off it.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Surely it's not a real ad?
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    stodge said:

    MrEd said:


    Depends - if she makes it let’s say 55/45, she would have improved 10pts+ from last time.

    In last time, FPT, there is a risk the markets are overpricing Macron. The French tend to vote against a particular candidate, rather than for. In that regards, Macron’s high profile, let’s be confrontational strategy is a major risk. Many may decide he’s too much of a prick and vote for Le Pen

    A fair dollop of wishful thinking here.

    There is a mechanism to cast a Blank or Null vote in France and 3 million did that last time including 17% of those who voted for Melenchon. I suspect we'll see a fair bit of that and abstentions as well.

    Last time, Macron led Le Pen by a million after round one and won in the end by 10 million. This time, he starts 1.7 million ahead and I think he'll end up 4-5 Million ahead. Le Pen will get most of the Zemmour supporters but the two important blocs are the 7.7 million Melenchon first round voters and the 7 million who didn't vote for any of the top four.
    That may be right.

    However, I think you might be underestimating the amount of dislike for Macron and the effect it may have on the result.

    I find it hard to see why dislike for MLP would have increased from 2017. If anything, given her moves to be more “centrist”, it may be less.

    However, for Macron, it’s easy to say that dislike of him is likely to have increased very significantly since 2017.

    Macron has also been more (deliberately seemingly) antagonistic post-the first round. Le Pen less so - her one policy point I’ve seen of NATO and Russia in a “partnership” is also designed to attract, or at least neutralise, Melenchon voters.

    Not saying I’m right by any stretch but I’m putting some money on Le Pen because her odds are more favourable than Macron ATM.

  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.

    Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,481
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Surely it's not a real ad?
    I don't think it's real. I also don't find it at all funny, but free speech n all.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    MrEd said:


    Depends - if she makes it let’s say 55/45, she would have improved 10pts+ from last time.

    In last time, FPT, there is a risk the markets are overpricing Macron. The French tend to vote against a particular candidate, rather than for. In that regards, Macron’s high profile, let’s be confrontational strategy is a major risk. Many may decide he’s too much of a prick and vote for Le Pen

    A fair dollop of wishful thinking here.

    There is a mechanism to cast a Blank or Null vote in France and 3 million did that last time including 17% of those who voted for Melenchon. I suspect we'll see a fair bit of that and abstentions as well.

    Last time, Macron led Le Pen by a million after round one and won in the end by 10 million. This time, he starts 1.7 million ahead and I think he'll end up 4-5 Million ahead. Le Pen will get most of the Zemmour supporters but the two important blocs are the 7.7 million Melenchon first round voters and the 7 million who didn't vote for any of the top four.
    That may be right.

    However, I think you might be underestimating the amount of dislike for Macron and the effect it may have on the result.

    I find it hard to see why dislike for MLP would have increased from 2017. If anything, given her moves to be more “centrist”, it may be less.

    However, for Macron, it’s easy to say that dislike of him is likely to have increased very significantly since 2017.

    Macron has also been more (deliberately seemingly) antagonistic post-the first round. Le Pen less so - her one policy point I’ve seen of NATO and Russia in a “partnership” is also designed to attract, or at least neutralise, Melenchon voters.

    Not saying I’m right by any stretch but I’m putting some money on Le Pen because her odds are more favourable than Macron ATM.

    Macron's approval rating: +44 -54
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,436

    Barnet at 5/6 with Ladbrokes to turn labour is a bargain . Not only the national swing that is going to happen but the unwind of anti- Corbyn voters will be large in Barnet given its Jewish population

    Don't fall for CCHQ expectation management. Barnet is not a former Labour stronghold turned blue by fear of Corbyn: it is a Tory borough that includes Mrs Thatcher's old constituency.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796

    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Surely it's not a real ad?
    I don't think it's real. I also don't find it at all funny, but free speech n all.
    Far, far more funny if it's real.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,270
    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Quick foray into the realm of psychiatry - I sense much of the "but oh god Corbyn would have been worse" sentiment being still advanced at this time when he's long been chip paper is reflexive guilt management from people who voted Con and enabled this disgrace of a PM and don't feel too great about it deep down, now they see clearly who and what he is.

    We could call it Having Voted For Boris Derangement Syndrome (HVFBDS) - but we won't because that sort of thing is puerile, demeaning and tedious.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image


    Nails? Who needs ‘em.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,472
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    Are we suggesting Putin no longer has wood?
    Nailed it.
    No wonder it made him cross....
    A poor workman blames his tools. But....

    image
    I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
    Surely it's not a real ad?
    I don't think it's real. I also don't find it at all funny, but free speech n all.
    Far, far more funny if it's real.
    It's an old old fake ad. Hydraulic nail guns aren't really a thing.

    Now, on a serious note. Forget about pieces of the True Cross. Got something far better - a sideboard and chairs by The Man himself.

    Every other church has a piece of the Cross. The bloke was a chippie - where's his work?

    Whose first on the bidding?
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797
    edited April 2022
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Quick foray into the realm of psychiatry - I sense much of the "but oh god Corbyn would have been worse" sentiment being still advanced at this time when he's long been chip paper is reflexive guilt management from people who voted Con and enabled this disgrace of a PM and don't feel too great about it deep down, now they see clearly who and what he is.

    We could call it Having Voted For Boris Derangement Syndrome (HVFBDS) - but we won't because that sort of thing is puerile, demeaning and tedious.
    There could also be a 'not brave enough to vote for Boris so spoiled my ballot/voted for labour to avoid upsetting my wife' in 2019 syndrome (NBETVBSSMBVFLTAUMW), which could end up with deep feelings of shame and guilt (following contemplation of what Corbyn may have meant in terms of the conflict in Ukraine), which lead people to vote for Boris/ their local conservative council candidate. Not saying that this will be a statistically significant phenomenon, but it is one that still might exist.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Quick foray into the realm of psychiatry - I sense much of the "but oh god Corbyn would have been worse" sentiment being still advanced at this time when he's long been chip paper is reflexive guilt management from people who voted Con and enabled this disgrace of a PM and don't feel too great about it deep down, now they see clearly who and what he is.

    We could call it Having Voted For Boris Derangement Syndrome (HVFBDS) - but we won't because that sort of thing is puerile, demeaning and tedious.
    It's got a name: "plan continuation bias".
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,021
    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    That's a very comprehensive summary.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    edited April 2022
    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Quick foray into the realm of psychiatry - I sense much of the "but oh god Corbyn would have been worse" sentiment being still advanced at this time when he's long been chip paper is reflexive guilt management from people who voted Con and enabled this disgrace of a PM and don't feel too great about it deep down, now they see clearly who and what he is.

    We could call it Having Voted For Boris Derangement Syndrome (HVFBDS) - but we won't because that sort of thing is puerile, demeaning and tedious.
    There could also be a 'not brave enough to vote for Boris so spoiled my ballot/voted for labour to avoid upsetting my wife' in 2019 syndrome (NBETVBSSMBVFLTAUMW), which could end up with deep feelings of shame and guilt (following contemplation of what Corbyn may have meant in terms of the conflict in Ukraine), which lead people to vote for Boris/ their local conservative council candidate. Not saying that this will be a statistically significant phenomenon, but it is one that still might exist.
    presumably they will have to have got divorced in the meantime as well? I bought Farage's biography a few months ago which seemed to upset my wife . I thought sod it and escalated with highlighting former more hidden copies of The Revolt of the Right (Farage with a pint on the front cover) and A journey by Tony Blair on the bookshelf.

    Incidentally i am splitting up with my wife atm
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,021
    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,308
    edited April 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Just remember, however bad things get with Boris, it would be worse with Corbyn. Out of NATO, no NLAWs to Ukraine, no special forces in Ukraine, he would be embarrassing us on the world stage with calls for peace and dialogue with Russia. We really dodged a bullet in 2019, thanks largely to the politics of Brexit. Funny how these things go.

    That was worth reflecting on at the start, but has no additional impact. Its true and everyone has moved on.
    Quick foray into the realm of psychiatry - I sense much of the "but oh god Corbyn would have been worse" sentiment being still advanced at this time when he's long been chip paper is reflexive guilt management from people who voted Con and enabled this disgrace of a PM and don't feel too great about it deep down, now they see clearly who and what he is.

    We could call it Having Voted For Boris Derangement Syndrome (HVFBDS) - but we won't because that sort of thing is puerile, demeaning and tedious.
    There could also be a 'not brave enough to vote for Boris so spoiled my ballot/voted for labour to avoid upsetting my wife' in 2019 syndrome (NBETVBSSMBVFLTAUMW), which could end up with deep feelings of shame and guilt (following contemplation of what Corbyn may have meant in terms of the conflict in Ukraine), which lead people to vote for Boris/ their local conservative council candidate. Not saying that this will be a statistically significant phenomenon, but it is one that still might exist.
    Do you think female voters have a problem with Boris then?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,654
    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    Oh go on.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Can someone please explain Macron's position on the Ukraine war? I genuinely can't work him out.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    Could probably build a replacement boat for the Russian Navy
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,869
    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.
  • Options
    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    Barnet at 5/6 with Ladbrokes to turn labour is a bargain . Not only the national swing that is going to happen but the unwind of anti- Corbyn voters will be large in Barnet given its Jewish population

    Don't fall for CCHQ expectation management. Barnet is not a former Labour stronghold turned blue by fear of Corbyn: it is a Tory borough that includes Mrs Thatcher's old constituency.
    Yeah, a Labour majority has never happened before although the Tory majority was only 1 in 2014 and has been NOC 1994-2002. This site is only predicting a Labour majority of 1 in Barnet despite pro Labour boundary changes: https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/barnet/
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
    It's not just urban areas up for election in May
    But a lot of the rest are elections-by-thirds where even a wipe-out may not lead to loss of the council.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,021

    Can someone please explain Macron's position on the Ukraine war? I genuinely can't work him out.

    He's against it.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,869

    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    These "soft" losses from Brexit add up and end up being more important than pure money or taking control
    It’s cultural vandalism and tragic that children are now seen as security risks by no 10 .
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,815
    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    Means less furrin being audibly spoken in Home Counties towns and a few further north/west. Result, from a certain point of view.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,090
    rcs1000 said:

    Can someone please explain Macron's position on the Ukraine war? I genuinely can't work him out.

    He's against it.
    Tough on war, tough on the causes of war.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,815

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    White wine no good?
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Carnyx said:

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    White wine no good?
    i rarely refuse it if offered but red better
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,436
    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    Means less furrin being audibly spoken in Home Counties towns and a few further north/west. Result, from a certain point of view.
    Wouldn't most foreign school trips have come to London or other centres of heritage and tourism?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    Obviously don't drink! You shouldn't need to ask.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    Carnyx said:

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    White wine no good?
    That's a midday 'til early evening drink... ! :)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,815
    edited April 2022

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    Means less furrin being audibly spoken in Home Counties towns and a few further north/west. Result, from a certain point of view.
    Wouldn't most foreign school trips have come to London or other centres of heritage and tourism?
    My understanding* is they are common in Home Counties towns - near the Continent but cheaper than London. A quick check suggests a number in Margate, Tunbridge Wells, and Brighton - three towns taken at random.

    But yes, add places such as Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh too.

    *Edit: distinct impression. But IANAE and we do have at least one EFL teacher regular on PB.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,090
    The French government's official position on Ukraine seems to be based on clinging to their role as a mediator in the Normandy format negotiations. They blamed the ongoing crisis on "the parties’ lack of political will to deliver on their commitments" under the Minsk agreements.

    https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/situation-in-ukraine-what-is/
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Is there any serious work being done in Europe at the moment to prepare for an embargo of Russian oil and gas? How would we get through the winter? These things need to be considered now. I fear not enough is being done.

    Could the Ukrainians be victims of their own success? Now it's assumed Russia isn't going to 'win' the war I worry people are getting complacent again. We shouldn't be tolerant of a prolonged conflict even if it's largely restricted to the east with missiles being fired into the cities on a regular basis. It was smart of Zelensky to use the Israel comparison. Having to deal with a permanent enemy who denies your right to exist.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,815
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    The crux of the matter.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    The crux of the matter.
    If I'd Noahed you felt this way.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    Omnium said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    The crux of the matter.
    If I'd Noahed you felt this way.
    These puns are terrible. For Shem, gentlemen.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    The crux of the matter.
    If I'd Noahed you felt this way.
    These puns are terrible. For Shem, gentlemen.
    Someone put you up to criticise. I smell an Ararat.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,869
    edited April 2022
    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,311
    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    Interesting. HYUFD thinks that 500 losses will spell curtains for Boris. I disagree: Boris will put it about that councillors are a bureaucratic obsolescence anyway and it's about time these people got proper jobs. There is literally nothing that Boris can say or do that won't be met with Tory approval.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,436
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    Means less furrin being audibly spoken in Home Counties towns and a few further north/west. Result, from a certain point of view.
    Wouldn't most foreign school trips have come to London or other centres of heritage and tourism?
    My understanding* is they are common in Home Counties towns - near the Continent but cheaper than London. A quick check suggests a number in Margate, Tunbridge Wells, and Brighton - three towns taken at random.

    But yes, add places such as Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh too.

    *Edit: distinct impression. But IANAE and we do have at least one EFL teacher regular on PB.
    OK. I'm no expert, though I did once see seven separate German school parties while walking along London's South Bank with a colleague from that country. One thing we see in London suburbs is school parties staying at the cheaper chain hotels and getting the tube into Central London (see recent threads for a discussion of where that might be).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,090
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    Rescue divers should look for t'barnacles.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    The French government's official position on Ukraine seems to be based on clinging to their role as a mediator in the Normandy format negotiations. They blamed the ongoing crisis on "the parties’ lack of political will to deliver on their commitments" under the Minsk agreements.

    https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/situation-in-ukraine-what-is/

    Gosh, and there was me thinking it was because of the Russia invasion another sovran nation, killing and reaping a large number of civilians.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,614
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    And there was enough of that wood knocking about by the Middle Ages that could have constructed something much more substantial than a cross.
    getting dangerously close now to full blown escalation of an argument about a piece of wood
    Ark at you!
    The crux of the matter.
    If I'd Noahed you felt this way.
    These puns are terrible. For Shem, gentlemen.
    Someone put you up to criticise. I smell an Ararat.
    "So daughter, what DO you want for winning "Strictly Come Dancing (Old Testament Edition)?"
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    I agree. The Russians really did not expect to lose the flagship of their Black Sea Fleet. Indeed, I can't see that they expected any naval losses.
    Thank you
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828

    The French government's official position on Ukraine seems to be based on clinging to their role as a mediator in the Normandy format negotiations. They blamed the ongoing crisis on "the parties’ lack of political will to deliver on their commitments" under the Minsk agreements.

    https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/situation-in-ukraine-what-is/

    Other than Russia ending their invasion of another country and getting the hell out of Ukraine what other "commitments" need to be delivered?

    Good evening PB.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,021

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    Does your wife know that you guys are breaking up?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828
    Andy_JS said:

    Electoral Calculus is forecasting the Tories will lose 800 council seats — but no councils. Interesting combination.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html

    The Blessed Margaret had a few bad local election campaigns in 1981 and 1986! ;)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,030
    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    BigRich said:

    back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.

    It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.

    (Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:

    1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.

    2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.

    Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org

    Oh please can we argue about a piece of wood?
    No, No arguing about a piece of wood which may or may not have been somewhere in the first centaury.


    We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.

    If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.

    But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
    Your autocorrect is pissed I think.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reuters forecast: Macron 54%, Le Pen 46%

    Economist forecast: Macron 54%, Le Pen 46%

    https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/POLLS/zjvqkomzlvx/
    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022/forecast

    So what happens in 2027? Macron can't run again and there is no obvious successor unless his Mrs trades him in for a younger model. Iron Tits vs Mélenchon in the final?
    Édouard Philippe, Mayor of Le Havre, Macron's former prime minister and consistently the most popular politician in France according to polls. Actually Macron sacked him for being more popular than he is.

    Philippe chose to sit out the 2022 presidential election, leaving the way clear for Macron, He is intending to run in 2027 and has just set up a vehicle party, Horizon. He is Macron's obvious successor.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,030

    Saturday decision - Love red wine (who does not?) and its about time for a glass of course but got a mild touch of gout a few days ago which kept secret from (near split up ) wife (pretended its a sprain as it means no nagging on drinking)) . Do I go for it and have a glass and then tomorrow admit that i have had a gout attack (as an excuse to not bascially do anything) as I wil get nagged for drinking or hold out !

    Get your glass filled
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,352

    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?

    That’s better. The 2nd round was looking like a boringly easy win for Macron

    This is PB. We need shock polls and bettable turbulence

    For the record I stand by my long held prediction, it will be Sindyref deja vu


    55/45 to macron. But we want fun on the way
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,272
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Reuters forecast: Macron 54%, Le Pen 46%

    Economist forecast: Macron 54%, Le Pen 46%

    https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/POLLS/zjvqkomzlvx/
    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022/forecast

    So what happens in 2027? Macron can't run again and there is no obvious successor unless his Mrs trades him in for a younger model. Iron Tits vs Mélenchon in the final?
    Édouard Philippe, Mayor of Le Havre, Macron's former prime minister and consistently the most popular politician in France according to polls. Actually Macron sacked him for being more popular than he is.

    Philippe chose to sit out the 2022 presidential election, leaving the way clear for Macron, He is intending to run in 2027 and has just set up a vehicle party, Horizon. He is Macron's obvious successor.
    V interesting. Thanks.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,869
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
    I just don’t see why no 10 need to do things that Leavers never asked them to do!

    It’s the same with the music industry and touring bands. I don’t think Leavers would lose sleep over school children coming over on a group permit or a band having some exceptions in terms of FOM .

    Equally with Erasmus . It’s the no 10 obsession with cutting cultural links with the rest of the EU which is very disappointing .
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Depressing report about the language sector being devastated by Brexit red tape .

    All because no 10 refuses to make it easier for school children from the EU to come to the UK.

    Means less furrin being audibly spoken in Home Counties towns and a few further north/west. Result, from a certain point of view.
    Wouldn't most foreign school trips have come to London or other centres of heritage and tourism?
    My understanding* is they are common in Home Counties towns - near the Continent but cheaper than London. A quick check suggests a number in Margate, Tunbridge Wells, and Brighton - three towns taken at random.

    But yes, add places such as Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh too.

    *Edit: distinct impression. But IANAE and we do have at least one EFL teacher regular on PB.
    OK. I'm no expert, though I did once see seven separate German school parties while walking along London's South Bank with a colleague from that country. One thing we see in London suburbs is school parties staying at the cheaper chain hotels and getting the tube into Central London (see recent threads for a discussion of where that might be).
    “We think language schools are worth £35m to the local economy,” said Kevin Boorman, the council’s marketing manager.

    “People elsewhere don’t understand that Hastings is the most deprived town in south-east England. The loss of students has an impact on the whole town. We know Hastings is improving and the tourism industry provides entry-level jobs. To lose language students is a massive blow to every generation.”

    Huan Japes, membership director of English UK, the trade body for language schools, said 15% of members had closed permanently. “There’s another 15% that are not certain if they’ll see out the year,” he said. “We could be seeing a 30% loss across the country.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/apr/16/40000-jobs-at-risk-as-foreign-pupils-shun-uk-language-schools-brexit-covid
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?

    That’s better. The 2nd round was looking like a boringly easy win for Macron

    This is PB. We need shock polls and bettable turbulence

    For the record I stand by my long held prediction, it will be Sindyref deja vu


    55/45 to macron. But we want fun on the way
    Speak for yourself. If I want fun I go to a match or download a new game.
    I want politics to be boring.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    Leon said:

    Interesting and disturbing French poll on candidates and issues:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded

    The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.

    It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?

    That’s better. The 2nd round was looking like a boringly easy win for Macron

    This is PB. We need shock polls and bettable turbulence

    For the record I stand by my long held prediction, it will be Sindyref deja vu


    55/45 to macron. But we want fun on the way
    Evening @Leon - did you conclude your Empires list? As to France, it seems a little too obvious! They're French after all.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,311
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
    Is anyone still pretending that Brexit will result in anything beneficial? Even Boris doesn't seem to bother any more.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,352

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
    Is anyone still pretending that Brexit will result in anything beneficial? Even Boris doesn't seem to bother any more.
    We now elect and dismiss those who rule over us. That was always the primary and overwhelming gain of brexit.

    It has happened. It is done. Rejoice
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
    Is anyone still pretending that Brexit will result in anything beneficial? Even Boris doesn't seem to bother any more.
    Well, yes, me. The reasons I voted to leave were very long-term reasons. It'd be a harsh thing if one was constrained by the thinking of one politician.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,352
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    Before Brexit groups of school children could come on a joint permit and didn’t need a passport . The government refused to continue with this . Would any leaver have a problem with the old scheme continuing ? Did Leavers vote for this .

    I very much doubt it . No 10 seems obsessed with putting up hurdles to any sort of cultural exchanges.

    Just petty and vindictive .

    Brexit was always going to have a long lead time of no gain and some pain. I doubt anyone anticipated quite what would break, but equally some things that people predicted would be bad are fine.

    It really is too early to tell whether there is much gain to be had. (Of course there will be some in specific areas)

    The tourists will still come, and if the school-children need a passport then perhaps it'll be seen as a greater adventure. Who knows. Too early to tell as I said above.
    Is anyone still pretending that Brexit will result in anything beneficial? Even Boris doesn't seem to bother any more.
    Well, yes, me. The reasons I voted to leave were very long-term reasons. It'd be a harsh thing if one was constrained by the thinking of one politician.

    Remainers are STILL too stupid to understand all this. It’s quite phenomenal
This discussion has been closed.