https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1515394868595539968 BREAKING: India reportedly cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia… … This plan is being linked to India's push to transition towards domestic-made military equipment and is not framed as a rejection of Russia. But the timing of this move, if confirmed, is striking given U.S. pressure over India's Russia ties.
Could it be partly because the Indians have noticed how easily the Ukrainian shot done Russian Helicopters?
Ok probably not, but
I'm absolutely convinced that the Indians (and the Chinese, and a bunch of others) have noticed how Anglo-Swedish NLAWs, British Starstreak and French Martlets have absolutely massacred Russian kit.
They have taken out the Russian flagship of the Black Sea fleet, hundreds of tanks, and many helicopters and planes.
The idea that is not reverberating through the operators of Russian kit around the world is for the birds.
Beyond the headline Deltapoll number, there’s an eight point Labour lead on the economy, Starmer is well ahead of Johnson and immigration and asylum are way down the list of priorities. In every respect it is a horrible poll for the Tories.
Is there any serious work being done in Europe at the moment to prepare for an embargo of Russian oil and gas? How would we get through the winter? These things need to be considered now. I fear not enough is being done.
Could the Ukrainians be victims of their own success? Now it's assumed Russia isn't going to 'win' the war I worry people are getting complacent again. We shouldn't be tolerant of a prolonged conflict even if it's largely restricted to the east with missiles being fired into the cities on a regular basis. It was smart of Zelensky to use the Israel comparison. Having to deal with a permanent enemy who denies your right to exist.
AFAIK, coal imports are now completely banned in the EU. The main gas policy is to enforce all storage is full ahead of winter, which means more imports during the summer. There aren't any gas embargos planned at the EU level, although some countries are going further. Oil, which is the most lucrative one for Russia, is inching towards a phased embargo in the next round of EU sanctions. There are technical and political issues to sort out.
Oil is an irrelevancy, because it is (ignoring complexities of refining) fungible. The EU could give up Russian oil tomorrow, and (other than it enriching tanker owners), it would have no problem with availability. Russian cargoes bound for Europe will instead go to China or India or any one of a dozen countries who will love picking up oil at a couple of dollars discount. Those who impose sanctions, on the other hand, buy the oil previously destined for those countries... and pay a few dollars premium.
There is no EU ban on coal imports.
What about the costs of sending it to India/China?
If Russia is denied the Black Sea and the Gulf of Finland as routes for oil exports they'll be in a bit of a pickle even though the commodity is fungible.
Wouldn't that be a effective declaration of war? I suppose we could argue that we will embargo your ships if you stop vessels leaving Odessa.
Yeah, I take back my naïve musing on the topic. Too fraught.
To all those people who say we need to stop the war ASAP and not be sending more weapons to Ukraine - fine. But what sort of peace agreement do you envisage? Very few people seem to be answering that question. Just an assumption of 'oh well if both sides put down their arms they're bound to be able to compromise.'
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
I wouldn’t be so sure of that. The Russians seem to have badly underestimated the opposition. They clearly expected to seize the capital in short order and failed. They have lost epic quantities of kit, including one of the biggest warship lost for 40 odd years, if not longer. We cannot know for sure how many Russians have died, but it’s a lot, including at general rank. The west continues to supply arms. This does not necessarily end with a Russian win.
To all those people who say we need to stop the war ASAP and not be sending more weapons to Ukraine - fine. But what sort of peace agreement do you envisage? Very few people seem to be answering that question. Just an assumption of 'oh well if both sides put down their arms they're bound to be able to compromise.'
If Russia stops fighting, the war is over. If Ukraine does, then Ukraine is possibly over.
Peace can only happen if Russia gives up what it’s trying to do,
This website is interesting, it predicts a Labour majority of 1 in Barnet (which is credible) and huge Labour majorities in both Wandsworth and very dubiously Westminster.
I think it is a bit hard on the LDs overall and Labour could still end up slightly down in seats even if they gain Barnet and/or Wandsworth.
Also predicts a Tory surge in Sutton.
It also predicts the Conservatives to be wiped out in both Kingston and Richmond yet will win a seat in Barking & Dagenham.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1515394868595539968 BREAKING: India reportedly cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia… … This plan is being linked to India's push to transition towards domestic-made military equipment and is not framed as a rejection of Russia. But the timing of this move, if confirmed, is striking given U.S. pressure over India's Russia ties.
Could it be partly because the Indians have noticed how easily the Ukrainian shot done Russian Helicopters?
Ok probably not, but
I'm absolutely convinced that the Indians (and the Chinese, and a bunch of others) have noticed how Anglo-Swedish NLAWs, British Starstreak and French Martlets have absolutely massacred Russian kit.
They have taken out the Russian flagship of the Black Sea fleet, hundreds of tanks, and many helicopters and planes.
The idea that is not reverberating through the operators of Russian kit around the world is for the birds.
Any country that has been buying Russian kit must be having doubts about the wisdom of buying any more. Russia = crap.
Deltapoll is an 11.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour from the 2019 GE. That. as has been already been mentioned, would see Labour back with a working majority.
In terms of next month's locals, what does it tell us? This time four years ago, the Conservatives led Labour in most polls - up to five points ahead with YouGov. The question is how will the protest vote manifest? In different forms depending on the location would seem the obvious answers.
Any candidate from any or no party able to clearly position themselves as the likely beneficiary of a protest vote is likely to benefit so while Labour may do well we could well see both the LDs and Greens advance as well as Independent and Residents candidates.
We've seen 800 Conservative losses referenced - that would be 40% of all sitting Conservative councillors in this cycle - that seems high. In 2019, the party lost 1,330 seats but still elected 3,594 councillors. I'm not sure for instance what the scope for further losses in London would be - to take out 40% would mean 200 losses in the capital which may be stretching it a bit.
Nonetheless, losing Barnet and Wandsworth now seems conceivable - could Hillingdon fall as well leaving Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, Bromley and Bexley as London Boroughs with Conservative majorities?
I really can't see Hillingdon falling TBH, Tories even increased their seats there in 2018 ( https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/hillingdon/) I'm not even convinced Labour will gain more than 1 council in London although I think Westminster is the totemic one and Labour are certain to win the popular vote there even if not most seats.
Yes, a lord is the perfect chap for Wakefield. Should fit right in...
Is it your dog tubbs?
In the profile picture, yes.
Lovely dog!!! What breed is it?
Spanish podenco. Rescued (not by us). Slightly unusual as most podencos are brown, short haired and a bit smaller but she is lovely, and for a rescue totally chilled out.
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
It’s a bit ironic Boris being undone by something that isn’t really his fault…
How very karmic.
And whilst the government can do very little about the incoming cost of living wave, they can decide how to distribute the pain. And bless their cotton socks, Rishi and Boris aren't ideal casting to inspire confidence in doing that well.
But yes, the clock has struck midnight and the carriage has started turning back into a pumpkin, and BoJo had the bad luck that the inevitable has happened on his watch.
On that poll Labour would gain Basingstoke, is there value in the bets there now if possible to bet?
Sitting here in Basingstoke, I still can't see it; although the proposed boundary changes make the constituency more centred on the town itself and loses some of the rural (Tory) hinterland.
Given that Basingstoke has previously had a DUP MP…
On that poll Labour would gain Basingstoke, is there value in the bets there now if possible to bet?
Sitting here in Basingstoke, I still can't see it; although the proposed boundary changes make the constituency more centred on the town itself and loses some of the rural (Tory) hinterland.
Hope you are doing well @OldBasing, I am down in your neck of the woods over Easter.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
I dont find it offensive and its rather witty but the point is well made that the authors of it would not have done the same to a depiction of Mohammed etc .I personally wish we could live in a country where you can "tease" religion and its icons but it should be the same for all and clearly we live in a country where you can make jokes about Jesus and his death but not other historical leaders
The Russian Navy, have been sowing off a group of men that they clamed are from the Muskova, maybe, but one question the BBC article does not address is where is the Captain?
On that poll Labour would gain Basingstoke, is there value in the bets there now if possible to bet?
Sitting here in Basingstoke, I still can't see it; although the proposed boundary changes make the constituency more centred on the town itself and loses some of the rural (Tory) hinterland.
Given that Basingstoke has previously had a DUP MP…
Not elected though, he was a traitorous pig dog defector.
Deltapoll is an 11.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour from the 2019 GE. That. as has been already been mentioned, would see Labour back with a working majority.
In terms of next month's locals, what does it tell us? This time four years ago, the Conservatives led Labour in most polls - up to five points ahead with YouGov. The question is how will the protest vote manifest? In different forms depending on the location would seem the obvious answers.
Any candidate from any or no party able to clearly position themselves as the likely beneficiary of a protest vote is likely to benefit so while Labour may do well we could well see both the LDs and Greens advance as well as Independent and Residents candidates.
We've seen 800 Conservative losses referenced - that would be 40% of all sitting Conservative councillors in this cycle - that seems high. In 2019, the party lost 1,330 seats but still elected 3,594 councillors. I'm not sure for instance what the scope for further losses in London would be - to take out 40% would mean 200 losses in the capital which may be stretching it a bit.
Nonetheless, losing Barnet and Wandsworth now seems conceivable - could Hillingdon fall as well leaving Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, Bromley and Bexley as London Boroughs with Conservative majorities?
I really can't see Hillingdon falling TBH, Tories even increased their seats there in 2018 ( https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/hillingdon/) I'm not even convinced Labour will gain more than 1 council in London although I think Westminster is the totemic one and Labour are certain to win the popular vote there even if not most seats.
Labour should win Westminster on the Deltapoll swing. Wandsworth and Barnet should also fall.
That would leave Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea as the only Tory controlled councils left in London
Deltapoll is an 11.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour from the 2019 GE. That. as has been already been mentioned, would see Labour back with a working majority.
In terms of next month's locals, what does it tell us? This time four years ago, the Conservatives led Labour in most polls - up to five points ahead with YouGov. The question is how will the protest vote manifest? In different forms depending on the location would seem the obvious answers.
Any candidate from any or no party able to clearly position themselves as the likely beneficiary of a protest vote is likely to benefit so while Labour may do well we could well see both the LDs and Greens advance as well as Independent and Residents candidates.
We've seen 800 Conservative losses referenced - that would be 40% of all sitting Conservative councillors in this cycle - that seems high. In 2019, the party lost 1,330 seats but still elected 3,594 councillors. I'm not sure for instance what the scope for further losses in London would be - to take out 40% would mean 200 losses in the capital which may be stretching it a bit.
Nonetheless, losing Barnet and Wandsworth now seems conceivable - could Hillingdon fall as well leaving Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, Bromley and Bexley as London Boroughs with Conservative majorities?
I really can't see Hillingdon falling TBH, Tories even increased their seats there in 2018 ( https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/hillingdon/) I'm not even convinced Labour will gain more than 1 council in London although I think Westminster is the totemic one and Labour are certain to win the popular vote there even if not most seats.
If you are going to rely on Pollcat for your London election predictions, you might as well do your horse race betting based on my Saturday Patent.
We have no real clue how firm or soft the Conservative vote is in the individual Boroughs. Hillingdon is a reverse Croydon - Conservative in the north and Labour in the south but boundary changes make prediction even more difficult.
I accept local election results are often uneven and don't always reflect the national picture but I find the Pollcat numbers very hard to accept even if they are what you want to see.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
I dont find it offensive and its rather witty but the point is well made that the authors of it would not have done the same to a depiction of Mohammed etc .I personally wish we could live in a country where you can "tease" religion and its icons but it should be the same for all and clearly we live in a country where you can make jokes about Jesus and his death but not other historical leaders
Can’t argue with that. I think there are signs that parts of Islam is throwing off the shackles a bit and becoming more westernised. The ability to laugh at your own religion or indeed have others do it should be a mark of civilisation. You are totally right that they wouldn’t dream of doing it about Mohamed.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
It’s a bit ironic Boris being undone by something that isn’t really his fault…
Gordon Brown says Hi!
Brown’s actions over a decade and more at the apex of British politics structurally undermined the British economy and meant we were particularly poorly placed going into the financial crisis
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
It’s a bit ironic Boris being undone by something that isn’t really his fault…
Gordon Brown says Hi!
Brown’s actions over a decade and more at the apex of British politics structurally undermined the British economy and meant we were particularly poorly placed going into the financial crisis
The Tory mismanagement of the economy over the last decade+ has left us exposed. The script writes itself, Labour should just run GE2010 again and use all the Tory lines
How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
The boffins on the VoteUK discussion forum seem to believe it's very unlikely the Tories won't lose any councils at the local elections.
It's true that there aren't many councils that are likely to go directly from Conservative to Labour as opposed to Conservative to NOC or NOC to Labour. Outside of London only Southampton leaps to mind.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
I dont find it offensive and its rather witty but the point is well made that the authors of it would not have done the same to a depiction of Mohammed etc .I personally wish we could live in a country where you can "tease" religion and its icons but it should be the same for all and clearly we live in a country where you can make jokes about Jesus and his death but not other historical leaders
Can’t argue with that. I think there are signs that parts of Islam is throwing off the shackles a bit and becoming more westernised. The ability to laugh at your own religion or indeed have others do it should be a mark of civilisation. You are totally right that they wouldn’t dream of doing it about Mohamed.
Had they done it about Mohammed they would have to have gone into hiding as they would almost certainly have had death threats
Yes, a lord is the perfect chap for Wakefield. Should fit right in...
Is it your dog tubbs?
In the profile picture, yes.
Lovely dog!!! What breed is it?
Spanish podenco. Rescued (not by us). Slightly unusual as most podencos are brown, short haired and a bit smaller but she is lovely, and for a rescue totally chilled out.
Looks like a lovely doggo, I am always glad when rescues are given a new home I am sure she appreciates it.
On that poll Labour would gain Basingstoke, is there value in the bets there now if possible to bet?
Sitting here in Basingstoke, I still can't see it; although the proposed boundary changes make the constituency more centred on the town itself and loses some of the rural (Tory) hinterland.
Given that Basingstoke has previously had a DUP MP…
Not elected though, he was a traitorous pig dog defector.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Why should I care if people get their knickers in a twist about some tribal leader who died over a thousand years ago?
Yes, a lord is the perfect chap for Wakefield. Should fit right in...
Is it your dog tubbs?
In the profile picture, yes.
Lovely dog!!! What breed is it?
Spanish podenco. Rescued (not by us). Slightly unusual as most podencos are brown, short haired and a bit smaller but she is lovely, and for a rescue totally chilled out.
Looks like a lovely doggo, I am always glad when rescues are given a new home I am sure she appreciates it.
Certainly seems to, although we think she secretly likes one of the daycares she goes to more. The owner has her own dog that is best friends with ours. Rather lovely seeing them play together.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1515394868595539968 BREAKING: India reportedly cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia… … This plan is being linked to India's push to transition towards domestic-made military equipment and is not framed as a rejection of Russia. But the timing of this move, if confirmed, is striking given U.S. pressure over India's Russia ties.
Could it be partly because the Indians have noticed how easily the Ukrainian shot done Russian Helicopters?
Ok probably not, but
I'm absolutely convinced that the Indians (and the Chinese, and a bunch of others) have noticed how Anglo-Swedish NLAWs, British Starstreak and French Martlets have absolutely massacred Russian kit.
They have taken out the Russian flagship of the Black Sea fleet, hundreds of tanks, and many helicopters and planes.
The idea that is not reverberating through the operators of Russian kit around the world is for the birds.
I doubt China is too concerned. The real Russian deficiency is in modern electronic systems, which is not so much a problem for them - not indeed is the economic wherewithal to retire and replace their obsolete kit.
But you’re right that there are also plenty of alternate suppliers now, even if they’re not quite so cheap. And people will certainly be thinking quality is at least as important as quantity.
Deltapoll is an 11.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour from the 2019 GE. That. as has been already been mentioned, would see Labour back with a working majority.
In terms of next month's locals, what does it tell us? This time four years ago, the Conservatives led Labour in most polls - up to five points ahead with YouGov. The question is how will the protest vote manifest? In different forms depending on the location would seem the obvious answers.
Any candidate from any or no party able to clearly position themselves as the likely beneficiary of a protest vote is likely to benefit so while Labour may do well we could well see both the LDs and Greens advance as well as Independent and Residents candidates.
We've seen 800 Conservative losses referenced - that would be 40% of all sitting Conservative councillors in this cycle - that seems high. In 2019, the party lost 1,330 seats but still elected 3,594 councillors. I'm not sure for instance what the scope for further losses in London would be - to take out 40% would mean 200 losses in the capital which may be stretching it a bit.
Nonetheless, losing Barnet and Wandsworth now seems conceivable - could Hillingdon fall as well leaving Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, Bromley and Bexley as London Boroughs with Conservative majorities?
I really can't see Hillingdon falling TBH, Tories even increased their seats there in 2018 ( https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/hillingdon/) I'm not even convinced Labour will gain more than 1 council in London although I think Westminster is the totemic one and Labour are certain to win the popular vote there even if not most seats.
If you are going to rely on Pollcat for your London election predictions, you might as well do your horse race betting based on my Saturday Patent.
We have no real clue how firm or soft the Conservative vote is in the individual Boroughs. Hillingdon is a reverse Croydon - Conservative in the north and Labour in the south but boundary changes make prediction even more difficult.
I accept local election results are often uneven and don't always reflect the national picture but I find the Pollcat numbers very hard to accept even if they are what you want to see.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Why should I care if people get their knickers in a twist about some tribal leader who died over a thousand years ago?
If you have death threats and have to spend years of your life in hiding like Rushdie you might. The Charlie Hebdo cartoonists were even assassinated for their cartoon
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Why should I care if people get their knickers in a twist about some tribal leader who died over a thousand years ago?
If you have death threats and have to spend years of your life in hiding like Rushdie you might. The Charlie Hebdo cartoonists were even assassinated for their cartoon
And those threats - whether by individuals or governments - should be condemned by the government. A liberal society is nothing without free speech.
This website is interesting, it predicts a Labour majority of 1 in Barnet (which is credible) and huge Labour majorities in both Wandsworth and very dubiously Westminster.
I think it is a bit hard on the LDs overall and Labour could still end up slightly down in seats even if they gain Barnet and/or Wandsworth.
Also predicts a Tory surge in Sutton.
It also predicts the Conservatives to be wiped out in both Kingston and Richmond yet will win a seat in Barking & Dagenham.
Not convinced.
I'm convinced about MRP at constituency level, but I'm not sure it maps onto council wards. The turnout is low, so a lot depends on how well local parties get their vote out, and what the micro-quirks are.
Take Havering. (Please, take it.) Flagged as a possible Conservative gain in the MRP.
Rationally, it ought to be very Conservative. Even more so than Bromley, because it doesn't have a outer-inner London bit like Crystal Palace. It isn't very Conservative because of the effect of Residents' Associations. Both the Con-RA battles and the battles within and between RAs.
To take the the other place I know well, the result will depend almost entirely on whether one professional activist is having a good year or not. It could go either way.
Add up all those local stories, the quirks wash out and you can discern something about the national picture. But I'd hate to go the other way.
To all those people who say we need to stop the war ASAP and not be sending more weapons to Ukraine - fine. But what sort of peace agreement do you envisage? Very few people seem to be answering that question. Just an assumption of 'oh well if both sides put down their arms they're bound to be able to compromise.'
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
What do you mean by demographics? Are you under the mistaken impression that there are plenty of areas of Ukraine just waiting to be invited to join the Russian republic? And I wouldn't assume the Russian army is bigger either. They are suffering serious attrition and morale issues. On the other hand the Ukrainians are probably training a reserve army in the hundreds of thousands. It's curious how confident they are of victory. Naive? Maybe. Maybe not.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
To add - I accept Crimea may be an exception in wanting to be Russian but they should at least be asked about it through a proper process. Something I doubt the Russian state would be too keen on.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
The Tories voteshare was up in Dagenham in 2019, even if it was down across London as a whole
How many councils do they actually hold in the urban areas that are coming up in May? A handful in London - but I doubt much else.
The boffins on the VoteUK discussion forum seem to believe it's very unlikely the Tories won't lose any councils at the local elections.
It's true that there aren't many councils that are likely to go directly from Conservative to Labour as opposed to Conservative to NOC or NOC to Labour. Outside of London only Southampton leaps to mind.
Although no Tory losses includes the Tories not losing councils to NOC, which seems unlikely.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Why should I care if people get their knickers in a twist about some tribal leader who died over a thousand years ago?
If you have death threats and have to spend years of your life in hiding like Rushdie you might. The Charlie Hebdo cartoonists were even assassinated for their cartoon
And those threats - whether by individuals or governments - should be condemned by the government. A liberal society is nothing without free speech.
True but some British Muslims are anything but Liberal. Half want homosexuality to be illegal and a quarter want Sharia law
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
We're almost at 1997 levels of support now.
But without the 55 Scottish seats, it’s a harder mountain to climb.
Indeed. That Deltapoll is fantastic for Labour, especially for Scottish Labour (at 29% compared to 18.6% at the last UK GE). However, Baxter gives the following seat distribution, based on the new boundaries:
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
I don't think the Tories will poll less than 25% in London - I only realistically expect a 4% swing to Labour from 2018.
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
We're almost at 1997 levels of support now.
But without the 55 Scottish seats, it’s a harder mountain to climb.
Indeed. That Deltapoll is fantastic for Labour, especially for Scottish Labour (at 29% compared to 18.6% at the last UK GE). However, Baxter gives the following seat distribution, based on the new boundaries:
back to the Sinking of the Russian Flagship Moskova.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
I would not call myself a Christian at all anymore but that is sick and offensive. What were they thinking?
Free advertising. Cue the shock and publicity, and they get far more exposure than they ever would.
Not sure they would have tried it with a Mohammed related advert though.
Indeed.
It is somewhat offensive but I have seen worse.
Fortunately for the author Christians will not issue a Fatwa of death against him for insulting their main prophet though, so he has to go into hiding
Why do you find it offensive though?
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
Maybe but you can bet they would not have risked making a similar poster campaign about the Prophet Muhammad
Why should I care if people get their knickers in a twist about some tribal leader who died over a thousand years ago?
If you have death threats and have to spend years of your life in hiding like Rushdie you might. The Charlie Hebdo cartoonists were even assassinated for their cartoon
And those threats - whether by individuals or governments - should be condemned by the government. A liberal society is nothing without free speech.
True but some British Muslims are anything but Liberal. Half want homosexuality to be illegal and a quarter want Sharia law
It’s not up to one small interest group to determine what “society” does or doesn’t permit. That’s why we have a parliament elected to represent various constituencies.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
The Tories voteshare was up in Dagenham in 2019, even if it was down across London as a whole
There are a couple of things going on at once- the shift of Brexity/older WWC voters into the Conservative column, and the demographic change where outer East London is becoming more like London and less like Essex.
If I had to guess, this will be fine for the Conservatives in 2022, but not in 2026.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
Tremendous poll for Scottish and Welsh Labour. Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London Lab 50% Con 20% LD 8% Grn 7%
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 37% LD 11% Grn 6%
Midlands Con 47% Lab 37% LD 7% Grn 5%
North Lab 54% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 6%
Scotland SNP 49% Lab 29% Con 15% LD 5% Grn 2%
Wales Lab 56% PC 19% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
Ah, here we see the magic effect of the Rwanda proposals on those working-class Northern seats...
or not.
It would be helpful to know the comparative figures for 2019 for each region - is there an overview somewhere? The "Rest of South" is a bit problematic for tactical voting, as on those figures there will certainly be seats that Labour could win that appear to have the LibDems as main challengers because of tactical voting last time.
It's hard to believe how awful the Conservative figures in Wales are. They got 36.1% last time, so they've more than halved.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
A tweet I read earlier said that something along the lines of - if you ever wondered what you would have done about Hitler; it’s what you’re doing now.
Tremendous poll for Scottish and Welsh Labour. Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London Lab 50% Con 20% LD 8% Grn 7%
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 37% LD 11% Grn 6%
Midlands Con 47% Lab 37% LD 7% Grn 5%
North Lab 54% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 6%
Scotland SNP 49% Lab 29% Con 15% LD 5% Grn 2%
Wales Lab 56% PC 19% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
Ah, here we see the magic effect of the Rwanda proposals on those working-class Northern seats...
or not.
It would be helpful to know the comparative figures for 2019 for each region - is there an overview somewhere? The "Rest of South" is a bit problematic for tactical voting, as on those figures there will certainly be seats that Labour could win that appear to have the LibDems as main challengers because of tactical voting last time.
It's hard to believe how awful the Conservative figures in Wales are. They got 36.1% last time, so they've more than halved.
Come on now Nick, you’re better than that. Look at the polling dates.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
A tweet I read earlier said that something along the lines of - if you ever wondered what you would have done about Hitler; it’s what you’re doing now.
I dunno about that. The Turkish Bayraktar drone had not been invented in 1938. Nor the Javelin.
Tremendous poll for Scottish and Welsh Labour. Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London Lab 50% Con 20% LD 8% Grn 7%
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 37% LD 11% Grn 6%
Midlands Con 47% Lab 37% LD 7% Grn 5%
North Lab 54% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 6%
Scotland SNP 49% Lab 29% Con 15% LD 5% Grn 2%
Wales Lab 56% PC 19% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
Tories still ahead in the Midlands though as well as the South
The South is MOE territory. Mind you, Tory resistance in the Midlands is truly remarkable. We see it in poll after poll. But we really need to see some proper, full-sample polls in London and the English regions. They are surprisingly rare.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
A tweet I read earlier said that something along the lines of - if you ever wondered what you would have done about Hitler; it’s what you’re doing now.
I dunno about that. The Turkish Bayraktar drone had not been invented in 1938. Nor the Javelin.
Some people would prefer us not to carry on supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Is there any serious work being done in Europe at the moment to prepare for an embargo of Russian oil and gas? How would we get through the winter? These things need to be considered now. I fear not enough is being done.
Could the Ukrainians be victims of their own success? Now it's assumed Russia isn't going to 'win' the war I worry people are getting complacent again. We shouldn't be tolerant of a prolonged conflict even if it's largely restricted to the east with missiles being fired into the cities on a regular basis. It was smart of Zelensky to use the Israel comparison. Having to deal with a permanent enemy who denies your right to exist.
AFAIK, coal imports are now completely banned in the EU. The main gas policy is to enforce all storage is full ahead of winter, which means more imports during the summer. There aren't any gas embargos planned at the EU level, although some countries are going further. Oil, which is the most lucrative one for Russia, is inching towards a phased embargo in the next round of EU sanctions. There are technical and political issues to sort out.
Oil is an irrelevancy, because it is (ignoring complexities of refining) fungible. The EU could give up Russian oil tomorrow, and (other than it enriching tanker owners), it would have no problem with availability. Russian cargoes bound for Europe will instead go to China or India or any one of a dozen countries who will love picking up oil at a couple of dollars discount. Those who impose sanctions, on the other hand, buy the oil previously destined for those countries... and pay a few dollars premium.
There is no EU ban on coal imports.
What about the costs of sending it to India/China?
Well, it's a longer tanker journey, which means greater pressure on tanker day rates and more days, but remember that a VLCC will carry more than - and I'm not joking here - two million barrels of oil.
At $100/barrel, that means it's carrying at least two hundred million dollar of crude oil. And maybe as much as a quarter of a billion dollars worth/
Tanker day rates (last time I checked) were about $40,000/day (roughly double their pre-invasion rates). So at 12 day average transit times, we're talking $500,000 of transport costs... which is a mere pinprick on a quarter billion dollars worth of cargo.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
A tweet I read earlier said that something along the lines of - if you ever wondered what you would have done about Hitler; it’s what you’re doing now.
I dunno about that. The Turkish Bayraktar drone had not been invented in 1938. Nor the Javelin.
Some people would prefer us not to carry on supplying weapons to Ukraine.
I say “people” because I understand that the c word isn’t allowed here.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
The Tories voteshare was up in Dagenham in 2019, even if it was down across London as a whole
There are a couple of things going on at once- the shift of Brexity/older WWC voters into the Conservative column, and the demographic change where outer East London is becoming more like London and less like Essex.
If I had to guess, this will be fine for the Conservatives in 2022, but not in 2026.
On tonight's poll it is possible there could be no Conservative seats left in London between Chelsea and Fulham and the fringes of Essex and Kent.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
The Tories voteshare was up in Dagenham in 2019, even if it was down across London as a whole
There are a couple of things going on at once- the shift of Brexity/older WWC voters into the Conservative column, and the demographic change where outer East London is becoming more like London and less like Essex.
If I had to guess, this will be fine for the Conservatives in 2022, but not in 2026.
On tonight's poll it is possible there could be no Conservative seats left in London between Chelsea and Fulham and the fringes of Essex and Kent
Tremendous poll for Scottish and Welsh Labour. Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London Lab 50% Con 20% LD 8% Grn 7%
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 37% LD 11% Grn 6%
Midlands Con 47% Lab 37% LD 7% Grn 5%
North Lab 54% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 6%
Scotland SNP 49% Lab 29% Con 15% LD 5% Grn 2%
Wales Lab 56% PC 19% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
Ah, here we see the magic effect of the Rwanda proposals on those working-class Northern seats...
or not.
It would be helpful to know the comparative figures for 2019 for each region - is there an overview somewhere? The "Rest of South" is a bit problematic for tactical voting, as on those figures there will certainly be seats that Labour could win that appear to have the LibDems as main challengers because of tactical voting last time.
It's hard to believe how awful the Conservative figures in Wales are. They got 36.1% last time, so they've more than halved.
Seems pretty implausible to me as the Tories still got 19.6% in Wales in 1997 although I do expect the Tories to do very badly in the Welsh local elections and lose their only council Monmouthshire (where Labour is impressively standing a maximum slate).
Is there any serious work being done in Europe at the moment to prepare for an embargo of Russian oil and gas? How would we get through the winter? These things need to be considered now. I fear not enough is being done.
Could the Ukrainians be victims of their own success? Now it's assumed Russia isn't going to 'win' the war I worry people are getting complacent again. We shouldn't be tolerant of a prolonged conflict even if it's largely restricted to the east with missiles being fired into the cities on a regular basis. It was smart of Zelensky to use the Israel comparison. Having to deal with a permanent enemy who denies your right to exist.
AFAIK, coal imports are now completely banned in the EU. The main gas policy is to enforce all storage is full ahead of winter, which means more imports during the summer. There aren't any gas embargos planned at the EU level, although some countries are going further. Oil, which is the most lucrative one for Russia, is inching towards a phased embargo in the next round of EU sanctions. There are technical and political issues to sort out.
Oil is an irrelevancy, because it is (ignoring complexities of refining) fungible. The EU could give up Russian oil tomorrow, and (other than it enriching tanker owners), it would have no problem with availability. Russian cargoes bound for Europe will instead go to China or India or any one of a dozen countries who will love picking up oil at a couple of dollars discount. Those who impose sanctions, on the other hand, buy the oil previously destined for those countries... and pay a few dollars premium.
There is no EU ban on coal imports.
What about the costs of sending it to India/China?
If Russia is denied the Black Sea and the Gulf of Finland as routes for oil exports they'll be in a bit of a pickle even though the commodity is fungible.
The Gulf of Finland shipping is managed by GOFREP, and Russia is a part of that. If the Finns and Estonians were to kick Russia our and attempt to close the strait, that would probably be taken as an act of war by the Russians.
And I don't believe either of those countries would do that.
I'm not relying on it and I want the Tories to do badly, I think their Barnet prediction is entirely credible in every way but other stuff not. I suppose the Tories are likely to retain a handful of seats on Richmond and Kingston in places like Barnes and Coombe respectively for instance and I guess the LDs will probably hold Sutton but I don’t know if their majority will rise or fall.
The Conservatives have never been wiped off either Kingston or Richmond - both Boroughs have solid Conservative Wards - though the Tories were once down to 3 or 4 in Richmond, I don't think they've been lower than 10 in Kingston.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
The Tories voteshare was up in Dagenham in 2019, even if it was down across London as a whole
There are a couple of things going on at once- the shift of Brexity/older WWC voters into the Conservative column, and the demographic change where outer East London is becoming more like London and less like Essex.
If I had to guess, this will be fine for the Conservatives in 2022, but not in 2026.
On tonight's poll it is possible there could be no Conservative seats left in London between Chelsea and Fulham and the fringes of Essex and Kent
Fulham is going Labour, very young
Chelsea will still keep it blue though. Kensington and Cities of London and Westminster however likely will go Labour.
After the boundary changes however they would all go
Labour majority of 36 plugging those numbers into Electoral Calculus.
Wait till the cost of living crisis REALLY kicks in.
It’s a bit ironic Boris being undone by something that isn’t really his fault…
Brexit isn’t his fault?!
It’s the cost of living not brexit that is causing the tories problems
Brexit is a huge contributing factor to the cost of living crisis.
More importantly, it's one thing to forego 4% of economic growth that just didn't happen when the economy is still growing. It's another thing to allow 4% to fall off an otherwise static economy.
Tremendous poll for Scottish and Welsh Labour. Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London Lab 50% Con 20% LD 8% Grn 7%
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 37% LD 11% Grn 6%
Midlands Con 47% Lab 37% LD 7% Grn 5%
North Lab 54% Con 24% LD 12% Grn 6%
Scotland SNP 49% Lab 29% Con 15% LD 5% Grn 2%
Wales Lab 56% PC 19% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
Jesus, the South is disappearing but the Midlands still holding firm?
Is Scottish Labour having a comeback? Is 10+ seats on the cards?
The Midlands have the lowest propensity to actually cast a vote. Differential turnout could turn this into a Tory rout.
And no, 10+ SLab seats is not on the cards. Yet.
Even if the SLab revival is part driven by DavidL like tactical Tory unionists in the Central Belt? Need to see what an MRP comes up with.
10-12 is what happens if everything falls into place for Labour, and it's a sizeable swing to get there. Forget Brown's 41 sympathy vote, we're not going back there anytime soon, every SLab seat clawed back has to be viewed as a win in its own right, just as Ruthie's army is how May clung on in '17, if 7+ get SKS over the line in 2024, that'll be just dandy.
well I am no expert on the demographics of Ukraine but I imagine a settlement will need to be drawn up along something that resembles those lines - Its not the best solution and I condemn Russia for the war FWIW but let me turn it around and ask you what do you hope to achieve by prolonging the war because Russia is not going to be pushed back to its borders and go home by military force - look at the size of the two armies for that
You appear to have some mystical foretelling skills. But, ignoring those, would you like to see Russia pushed back to its borders?
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
As someone on twitter pointed out, the 'realists' are having a terrible war, and are still largely ignoring the actual - the real - developments in the war.
A tweet I read earlier said that something along the lines of - if you ever wondered what you would have done about Hitler; it’s what you’re doing now.
I dunno about that. The Turkish Bayraktar drone had not been invented in 1938. Nor the Javelin.
Some people would prefer us not to carry on supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, le Pen and Nigel Farage.
Comments
They have taken out the Russian flagship of the Black Sea fleet, hundreds of tanks, and many helicopters and planes.
The idea that is not reverberating through the operators of Russian kit around the world is for the birds.
Britain deserves better.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1514951685415718915
Ouch.
The west continues to supply arms.
This does not necessarily end with a Russian win.
If Ukraine does, then Ukraine is possibly over.
Peace can only happen if Russia gives up what it’s trying to do,
Not convinced.
It acknowledges the fundamental truth of our shared beliefs - that the crucifixion was not the end for the Risen Christ.
They may claim - in a jokey fashion - that it was down to human failing rather than God’s mystery, but that’s a relatively minor transgression in the scheme of things
And whilst the government can do very little about the incoming cost of living wave, they can decide how to distribute the pain. And bless their cotton socks, Rishi and Boris aren't ideal casting to inspire confidence in doing that well.
But yes, the clock has struck midnight and the carriage has started turning back into a pumpkin, and BoJo had the bad luck that the inevitable has happened on his watch.
Can't say I feel sorry for him, though.
The Russian Navy, have been sowing off a group of men that they clamed are from the Muskova, maybe, but one question the BBC article does not address is where is the Captain?
That would leave Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea as the only Tory controlled councils left in London
We have no real clue how firm or soft the Conservative vote is in the individual Boroughs. Hillingdon is a reverse Croydon - Conservative in the north and Labour in the south but boundary changes make prediction even more difficult.
I accept local election results are often uneven and don't always reflect the national picture but I find the Pollcat numbers very hard to accept even if they are what you want to see.
You are totally right that they wouldn’t dream of doing it about Mohamed.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1515435461153640451?s=20&t=V-XgVVn1b1kCck4HDDNkyQ
(I phrased my post carefully)
Reeves is the best person, short of Ed Balls, to answer the question, so Starmer has got that right - but still needs an answer.
Johnson wants Our Brexit and Trans Toilets to be 2024.
Starmer must make it: are you better off now than you were four years ago etc etc.
Scottish and Welsh Conservatives in meltdown territory.
London
Lab 50%
Con 20%
LD 8%
Grn 7%
Rest of South
Con 43%
Lab 37%
LD 11%
Grn 6%
Midlands
Con 47%
Lab 37%
LD 7%
Grn 5%
North
Lab 54%
Con 24%
LD 12%
Grn 6%
Scotland
SNP 49%
Lab 29%
Con 15%
LD 5%
Grn 2%
Wales
Lab 56%
PC 19%
Con 13%
Grn 6%
LD 3%
(Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)
The real Russian deficiency is in modern electronic systems, which is not so much a problem for them - not indeed is the economic wherewithal to retire and replace their obsolete kit.
But you’re right that there are also plenty of alternate suppliers now, even if they’re not quite so cheap. And people will certainly be thinking quality is at least as important as quantity.
Is Scottish Labour having a comeback? Is 10+ seats on the cards?
Starmer is transformed as 'next PM' if Scots Lab starts to come back from the dead imho.
Take Havering. (Please, take it.) Flagged as a possible Conservative gain in the MRP.
Rationally, it ought to be very Conservative. Even more so than Bromley, because it doesn't have a outer-inner London bit like Crystal Palace. It isn't very Conservative because of the effect of Residents' Associations. Both the Con-RA battles and the battles within and between RAs.
To take the the other place I know well, the result will depend almost entirely on whether one professional activist is having a good year or not. It could go either way.
Add up all those local stories, the quirks wash out and you can discern something about the national picture. But I'd hate to go the other way.
As for Sutton, I could see the LDs losing their majority but how the seats will change with the new boundaries is much harder to call.
I just think Pollcat's predictions are in a sense too extreme and in another sense not extreme enough.
With Deltapoll showing the Conservatives at 20% in London, you do wonder if we will see some surprises but I have to say the Conservatives winning a seat in Barking & Dagenham would be right up there.
Will Jennings
@drjennings
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35m
Just one poll etc but the latest from
@DeltapollUK
puts Labour well ahead of the Conservatives on the economy.
If you offered that to Sarwar right now, he’d bite your hand off.
Or do you think that would be too ‘dangerous’?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
SNP 54 seats (+6)
SLab 3 seats (+2)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
SLD 0 seats (-2)
Starmer needs to introduce PR.
How sweet…
If I had to guess, this will be fine for the Conservatives in 2022, but not in 2026.
or not.
It would be helpful to know the comparative figures for 2019 for each region - is there an overview somewhere? The "Rest of South" is a bit problematic for tactical voting, as on those figures there will certainly be seats that Labour could win that appear to have the LibDems as main challengers because of tactical voting last time.
It's hard to believe how awful the Conservative figures in Wales are. They got 36.1% last time, so they've more than halved.
And no, 10+ SLab seats is not on the cards. Yet.
At $100/barrel, that means it's carrying at least two hundred million dollar of crude oil. And maybe as much as a quarter of a billion dollars worth/
Tanker day rates (last time I checked) were about $40,000/day (roughly double their pre-invasion rates). So at 12 day average transit times, we're talking $500,000 of transport costs... which is a mere pinprick on a quarter billion dollars worth of cargo.
And I don't believe either of those countries would do that.
After the boundary changes however they would all go
10-12 is what happens if everything falls into place for Labour, and it's a sizeable swing to get there. Forget Brown's 41 sympathy vote, we're not going back there anytime soon, every SLab seat clawed back has to be viewed as a win in its own right, just as Ruthie's army is how May clung on in '17, if 7+ get SKS over the line in 2024, that'll be just dandy.
(They routinely have Christian and Jewish cartoons, some very disrespectful, and occasionally have a Buddhist cartoon.)
And possibly Chomsky.