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BoJo’s survival makes PM Keir a better bet – politicalbetting.com
BoJo’s survival makes PM Keir a better bet – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen in the betting chart the market on who will be the next prime minister has moved around an enormous amount over the last couple of months. The big loser in betting terms has been Chancellor Sunak and this initially caused a fair bit of money to switch to Keir Starmer.
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Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michael Fabricant alone suggest this is a reasonable bet.
Unless they're sure of getting a brilliant leader I can sort of see why they'll stick with Johnson.
And I didn't take the worst. I didn't say anything about Boris Johnson.
Economist forecast: Macron 54%, Le Pen 46%
https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/POLLS/zjvqkomzlvx/
https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022/forecast
SKS chance of being next PM therefore a bit less than 25%. Hills at 7/2 about right.
But for those who are sure Boris will make it to the next election current odds are value.
They didn’t even get rid of Corbyn. They are not going to ditch Starmer.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 33% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 7% (-)
via @YouGov
, 13 - 14 Apr
He cannot ride out the Shires giving him a good kicking in 2023. Which is when they are up. Boris announces in late May 2023 that he will be departing 10 Downing Street once his successor is in place (or else 70-80 letters go in!!). The leadership contest goes ahead over the summer and he is replaced to a huge standing ovation of gratitude (aka "thank fuck he's gone, now we stand a chance at least next year") at the 2023 Conference.
SKS will NOT be the next PM. Might win in 2024, but less obvious than a new Tory in their honeymoon period.
Don't say I didn't tell you.
I prefer Labour most seats at anything above evens (I have a lump on around 2.5).
You seem to have forgotten how ruthless the Tory party is!
Lab 47%
Con 27%
LD 10%
Grn 8%
Rest of South
Con 38%
Lab 30%
LD 15%
Grn 9%
Ref 6%
Midlands and Wales
Con 43%
Lab 39%
Grn 7%
LD 4%
North
Lab 51%
Con 27%
LD 8%
Ref 7%
Grn 4%
Scotland
SNP 42%
Lab 19%
Con 18%
LD 8%
Grn 7%
Sir Keir Starmer Will Neutralise Boris's Prime Ministership.
Glad we're on the same page.
Scotland 60%
London 58%
Rest of South 55%
North 54%
Midlands and Wales 50%
Remain 67%
Leave 59%
Women 56%
Men 53%
2019 vote
LD 70%
Lab 67%
Con 62%
2022 VI
Lab 75%
LD 70%
Con 70%
YG 13-15 April
If CON get say 295 and LAB say 280 then Boris says ok the game's up, Keir you get on with it and we CON will give you some form of unofficial confidence and supply as long as your policies are reasonably palatable. Then LAB don't have to negotiate with other small parties and perhaps a relatively stable government.
Constitutionally the PM can stay in office until voted out by parliament. If the numbers you suggest are like that I think he would challenge the Commons to remove him. If he doesn't just illegally shut the place down again - who needs a parliament anyway...
Nationally Conservatives led Labour 43-38 so a 5% swing to Labour.
In London, it was 51-34 to Labour compared with 47-27 now so a small swing to Labour. LDs up from 6 to 10 and Greens now 8.
The 2018 London locals were 44-29-13- 8.6 (Con-Lab-LD- Green) so encouraging for both the LDs and Greens in the capital. The latter in particular are putting up over 800 candidates compared with 1302 for the LDs, 1755 for the Conservatives and it appears a full slate of 1817 Labour candidates.
Bear in mind, her 'party' is more of a family cult. She won't be removed even when she loses. Her supporters will just blame a conspiracy and carry on.
In last time, FPT, there is a risk the markets are overpricing Macron. The French tend to vote against a particular candidate, rather than for. In that regards, Macron’s high profile, let’s be confrontational strategy is a major risk. Many may decide he’s too much of a prick and vote for Le Pen
Ed was crap and to be honest I had a soft spot for him. However, he was less crap than Cameron and years of chaos ensued (cf that famous Cameron tweet).
By the way I know what I said above wasn't actually an acronym.
Sure, she may get closer than 2017, which was a lot better than her dad, but based on that trend might as well decide Marion will end up winning in 2032.
There is a mechanism to cast a Blank or Null vote in France and 3 million did that last time including 17% of those who voted for Melenchon. I suspect we'll see a fair bit of that and abstentions as well.
Last time, Macron led Le Pen by a million after round one and won in the end by 10 million. This time, he starts 1.7 million ahead and I think he'll end up 4-5 Million ahead. Le Pen will get most of the Zemmour supporters but the two important blocs are the 7.7 million Melenchon first round voters and the 7 million who didn't vote for any of the top four.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/comments/EICIPM
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=38&LIB=10&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Russia confirms that Maj Gen Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of the 8th Army, was killed in combat in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1515343018471006212
Alaskans are tired of Sarah Palin. In 2022, in the country’s wildest congressional race, she could win anyway.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/16/sarah-palin-alaska-00025449
WASILLA, Alaska — About 70 miles up the road from Sarah Palin’s home on Lake Lucille, there’s a propane, gift and souvenir store set behind a snowbank where Mike Carpenter, the owner, will turn on Newsmax, smoke a Winston White and say this about the state’s celebrity former governor: “One way you might describe Sarah Palin is she knows which bathroom to use.”
When she announced her run for Congress on the April 1 filing deadline, he said to himself, “Thank God.”
There were years, Carpenter recalled, when most other people felt that way about Palin here, too. But if this was once Palin Country — “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” was the name of the reality show — and Palin had the stratospheric poll numbers to back it up, her signature on the state today, as she runs again statewide, has become vanishingly small.
In Wasilla, Palin’s hometown, there is no longer a “Palin Fever” banner hanging at the Mocha Moose. Glenna Edwards, who once designed and sold Palin-inspired bumper stickers at her medical supply store in town, told me, “I’m sorry to tell you, I’m not a supporter anymore.” And at a meeting of local Republicans at the Mat-Su Family Restaurant last weekend, it looked particularly deflating for her. As one of her most credible competitors in the House race, Nick Begich III, joked in front of the room about Palin dancing “in a bear costume singing a song,” Republicans in the audience chuckled along. . . .
“She’s not seen around much,” Shelley Hughes, the Republican state Senate majority leader, told me as the meeting at the Mat-Su broke up.
Jay Ramras, a former Republican state lawmaker who owns Pike’s Waterfront Lodge in Fairbanks, had told me the day before in his hotel lobby, “Don’t beat up on Sarah Palin.” But he also said: “She’s perceived a little bit as a carpetbagger in her home state.” . . .
Here in Alaska, she also personifies the tension between local and national politics, and her candidacy could be a referendum on which matters more. She is deeply unpopular in her home state. The longtime pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research last registered her favorability rating, in October, at 31 percent. And yet, she still could win. In a poll commissioned by the conservative website Must Read Alaska, Palin led all other candidates, with 31 percent support. Al Gross, who is running as an independent after his failed Senate race in the state in 2020, was second, with 26 percent, followed by Begich, scion of an Alaska political dynasty, at 21 percent. . . .
“Our state is goofy as shit,” he said. . . .
Its been a brake of 3 weeks or so since this last killing of a high profile ranking Russian army officer (not including the Captain of Muscva) So I was beginning to think ether the Ukrainians no longer had the right type of Drones or that maybe the Russians had got better.
The key issue will be if another leading candidate offers a better chance of survival. Mrs Thatcher and Mrs May had become major electoral liabilities certainly, but there were also in each case several strong alternatives.
If we look at the alternatives to Big Dog, who are the candidates that offer that possibility? None stands out and there is the possibility of worse. Best hold onto nurse for fear of finding something worse. Indeed many Tories are probably glad that Sunak didnt take over this last winter.
https://mustreadalaska.com/new-must-read-alaska-poll-sarah-palin-nick-begich-are-top-two-republicans-on-the-ballot-for-congress/
The survey asked questions of 955 likely 2022 primary voters, such as: “Of several possible candidates in the 2022 election for Congress, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” The response was:
Sarah Palin: 31%
Al Gross: 26%
Nick Begich: 21%
Christopher Constant: 7%
Josh Revak: 3%
Tara Sweeney: 2%
Another candidate not listed: 4%
Undecided: 6%
This result contradicts a poll advertised by candidate Gross in his fundraising push to his national audience, which says Palin has 42%, Gross has 40%, and 18% are undecided.
The MRAK poll was conducted by a major national polling firm, Remington Research Strategies, which has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.com for accuracy. It is the first known major poll to be conducted in Alaska in the race to replace the late Congressman Don Young, since his death on March 18.
Between April 7-9, surveyors asked likely primary voters in Juneau, Anchorage, and Fairbanks a series of questions about some of the more well-known names on the primary ballot. . . .
When asked their favorable/unfavorable opinion about Republican Sarah Palin:
37% said their opinion was favorable.
51% said they have an unfavorable opinion of Palin.
12% had no opinion of the former Alaska governor.
When asked their opinion about Republican Nick Begich:
28% were favorable.
30% were unfavorable.
42% had no opinion.
The same question was asked about Republican Josh Revak. Responses were:
8% were favorable.
29% were unfavorable.
63% had no opinion.
Democrat-backed candidate Al Gross, who ran for Senate in 2020 against Sen. Dan Sullivan, drew these responses:
32% favorable.
51% unfavorable.
17% with no opinion.
The polling on Palin shows the former governor can’t lean on former President Donald Trump’s endorsement for support without risk. When asked, “Are you more likely or less likely to support Sarah Palin if you know that Donald Trump supports her candidacy?” the overall result was:
29% were more likely to vote for Palin.
48% were less likely.
23% said it made no difference to them.
By region the breakdown shows the former governor cannot use Trump without losing support:
Juneau: 16% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 73% of respondents said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Palin.
Fairbanks: 38% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote Palin, while 33% said it it would make them less likely.
Anchorage: 30% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 45% said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely. . . .
SSI - not sure how many (if any) were polled in rural villages.
It seems that the Russian Orthodox Church had placed one of there relocks on the ship, a fragment from the cross that Jesus was crucified on. That has presumably gone down with the Ship.
(Please can we not argue about weather it was really a fragment of the cross, HYDF will say one thing and everybody else the other and we will be here all night, so please lets not go down that road. However the significant thing here is the Russian Orthodox Church pronated that it was. and this shoes:
1) The ridiculously close relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church, and the Russian State and armed forces. Whatever ones opinion of the separation of church and state, Russia today is at an absolute extreme end of this spectrum.
2) The Russians really did not expect this ship to be sunk.
Link: https://tass.com/society/1123855?utm_source=wlord.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wlord.org&utm_referrer=wlord.org
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1515358532853551113?t=4mmp3NSSkj8gI8eUvSvszw&s=19
Special general election August 16 (same day as regular primary = ranked choice voting among Top 4
https://twitter.com/DuplessisBrad/status/1515005843758059525
moviesdocumentaries.I arise again after three minutes, and am ready for ACTION, baby!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.html
We all know how it will tern out HYDF will say one thing somebody else will point out how perposturase it is, HYDF will double down then everybody will pile in, the chat will get boring, and then tomorrow some people will have overstated their crissum of HYDF and apologise and others will give him credit for sticking to his guns, now we don't want that do we.
If you need to argue there's always pineapple on Prize.
But betters still, can somebody agree we me that this shoes the Russians really did not expect to loss this ship?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/french-election-le-pen-may-be-on-verge-of-shock-win-with-horror-undecided-stat-for-macron/ar-AAWht93?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=6d0c6ce61f084a83cebc92338a41bded
The French marginally in favour of leaving NATO, not much bothered about the Russians, and mostly voting on whether they like Le Pen or want to stop her, rather than for Macron. The nearly even split among Melanchon supporters is shocking - I suspect that if Le Pen squeaked it there would be some harsh criticism of his reluctance to endorse Macron.
It'd be interesting to see comparable polling elsewhere - do Brits, Germans, Americans want to do more/less about Ukraine, or have we got it about right?