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Worrying by-election pointers for Tories ahead of May 5th – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,879

    Most, let me repeat, most, of America's current territory was purchased.

    Louisiana purchase (roughly the middle third of the contiguous United States): from France.
    Florida: from Spain
    Mexican Secession (Texas, most of the southwest, California): from Mexico (The United States paid Mexico after defeating Mexico in the Mexican-American War.)
    Gadsden purchase (southern Arizona and a bit of New Mexico): from Mexico
    Alaska: from imperial Russia

    It is also true that some of those purchases were made with the threat of force, implicitly or explicitly, as well as a money offer.

    You forgot some of the First Nations lands, with beads, blankets, and bullshit lies.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,958
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Re the Rwandan thing, has this been discussed? Pics of the tourist hostel HMG have presumably leased in a tearing hurry.

    I'm not entirely sure it will satisfy some, who will see it as pampering the illegals and refugees. And I'm not entirely sure that it can handle 30K people a year.

    https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1514569538024751113
    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/inside-rwanda-centre-asylum-seekers-uk-channel-migrants-1575640?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1649936491

    Red Cross policy wonk:

    Jon Featonby
    @jonfeatonby

    Replying to
    @sundersays

    What I’ve only just twigged about the UK plan is that it’s using inadmissibility powers, not the offshoring powers in the bill. They will judge that someone could & should have claimed asylum elsewhere. Then they deem that claim inadmissible - not the responsibility of the UK.

    https://twitter.com/jonfeatonby/status/1514682901081821195

    ===

    So, if I have understood then what happens to them after they touch down in Rwanda is Kegame's issue not UK's.
    Do the Rwandans understand that? They're not stupid, but did HMG come clean?
    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,425
    Still hiking the Chilterns. In the majestic Ashridge Estate. And yet I learn that “75-80% of the ash trees in the UK will die in the next decade” - due to ash dieback

    This is horrendous. Why is the entire world turning to shit?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,631

    Disgracefully, nobody has mentioned the NZ Empire which commenced formally in 1901 with control of Niue and the Cook Islands and, with various comings and goings, continues to this day.

    The island of Tokelau (population 1500) is currently administrated by Ross Ardern, who happens to be Jacinda’s father.

    So Jacinda's daddy is Enzedian version Dr. Hunter S. Thompson?

    Or rather what HST aspired to be: Governor of American Samoa, or rather the Antipodean equivalent?
  • Options
    I’m gutted. The Little Yellow Train is closed.

    On the slightly brighter side, there is a replacement bus service (that only costs a euro) that means I can continue with the route I’ve (barely!) planned, just without quite the views I was expecting.

    Also, where I am now in Vernet Les Bains is stunning. It’s in the foothills of the Canigou mountain. Rudyard Kipling fell in love with the mountain when staying here 111 years ago. He wrote the short story “Why Snow Falls at Vernet”, which mocks the English for always talking about the weather. And he wrote this letter to the Club Alpin where he describes it as a “magician among mountains”.

    I think I’ll cope with the disappointment somehow! And I’ll definitely be back some day to catch the little train.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Re the Rwandan thing, has this been discussed? Pics of the tourist hostel HMG have presumably leased in a tearing hurry.

    I'm not entirely sure it will satisfy some, who will see it as pampering the illegals and refugees. And I'm not entirely sure that it can handle 30K people a year.

    https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1514569538024751113
    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/inside-rwanda-centre-asylum-seekers-uk-channel-migrants-1575640?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1649936491

    Red Cross policy wonk:

    Jon Featonby
    @jonfeatonby

    Replying to
    @sundersays

    What I’ve only just twigged about the UK plan is that it’s using inadmissibility powers, not the offshoring powers in the bill. They will judge that someone could & should have claimed asylum elsewhere. Then they deem that claim inadmissible - not the responsibility of the UK.

    https://twitter.com/jonfeatonby/status/1514682901081821195

    ===

    So, if I have understood then what happens to them after they touch down in Rwanda is Kegame's issue not UK's.
    Do the Rwandans understand that? They're not stupid, but did HMG come clean?
    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').
    If you go back and look at interviews etc even with New Labour era ministers, the drop in “quality” is profound.

    Whether this is generational decline, or Boris’s tendency to deliberately appoint cretins, is not clear.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    mwadams said:

    Speaking of empires, or perhaps imperial nostalgia, I was asked about a year ago by a senior Labour figure what it would take for Britain to “recover some of the power and prestige we had when we were an Empire”.

    I did give him an answer, which largely involves confederating with Canada.

    Perhaps I should write a header.

    We should do that and move the joint capital and seat of Government to Toronto (just to annoy everyone). What's left of the Monarchy can be moved to their new official residence complex in Winnipeg and we can get on with things.
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Speaking of empires, or perhaps imperial nostalgia, I was asked about a year ago by a senior Labour figure what it would take for Britain to “recover some of the power and prestige we had when we were an Empire”.

    I did give him an answer, which largely involves confederating with Canada.

    Perhaps I should write a header.

    Why not ?

    Sounds an interesting concept.
    CANZUK?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK
    CANZUK lacks an overriding strategic rationale and is geographically problematic.

    Anglo-Canada alone would be the third largest country in the world (after Russia and China), and would be 3rd on military spending and could probably close in on 3rd for GDP too.
    We’d have stop the blighters with the French language nonsense though!
    Part of the “deal” would be that Britain becomes more Canadian. We’d probably want to brush up on our French.
    This is not one of your best & brightest, @Gardenwalker

    The West of Canada resents the dominance of Ontario & Quebec, who almost always supply the Prime Minister.

    Quebec resents Anglophone Canada.

    Anglophone Canada resents the special privileges of Quebec. The Francophones in New Brunswick/Nouveau-Brunswick are terrified that Quebec will leave.

    Prince Edward Island resents being forgotten about. Newfoundland resents losing its status as an independent country and joining the Confederation in the 1949 referendum.

    The tiny Maritimes resent Quebec and Ontario and the West of Canada.

    And the First Nations resent the Canadian genocide.

    And everyone in Canada resents their wealthy Braggadocio of a neighbour to the South ... until they leave Canada and settle in greater LA or NYC or Chicago.

    Canada is more likely to fall to pieces than the YooKay.
    Excellent dental health though. It's usual for a Canadian child to be fitted with braces and this pays dividends with straight teeth in later life. And that's not all. Daily flossing is not the exception in Canada, it's the rule.
    Canada is in love with string dipped in waxy mint :)

    That is so ... sweetly Canadien.

    The Ugly American exults in bleeding gums and rotting organic matter between his teeth.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Still hiking the Chilterns. In the majestic Ashridge Estate. And yet I learn that “75-80% of the ash trees in the UK will die in the next decade” - due to ash dieback

    This is horrendous. Why is the entire world turning to shit?

    Try not to think of it as "ash dieback".
    Think of it as the hymenoscyphus fraxineus empire.
    Bringing the candle of civilisation to our benighted land.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354
    ohnotnow said:



    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').

    Yes, that's what I thought (and said on the last thread) - poised, fluent, and confident. Yolande Nkole or a name like that - I've been trying to google her without success, but she sounded a lot more on top of the issue than Priti Patel's comments from last year broadcast on the same programme.

    That doesn't mean that I approve of the scheme, but I think the Rwandans are clear what they are getting out of it. In return for taking a small number of asylum-seekers over 5 years and processing their applications under Rwandan law, they are getting a lot of money.

    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,058

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Re the Rwandan thing, has this been discussed? Pics of the tourist hostel HMG have presumably leased in a tearing hurry.

    I'm not entirely sure it will satisfy some, who will see it as pampering the illegals and refugees. And I'm not entirely sure that it can handle 30K people a year.

    https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1514569538024751113
    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/inside-rwanda-centre-asylum-seekers-uk-channel-migrants-1575640?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1649936491

    Red Cross policy wonk:

    Jon Featonby
    @jonfeatonby

    Replying to
    @sundersays

    What I’ve only just twigged about the UK plan is that it’s using inadmissibility powers, not the offshoring powers in the bill. They will judge that someone could & should have claimed asylum elsewhere. Then they deem that claim inadmissible - not the responsibility of the UK.

    https://twitter.com/jonfeatonby/status/1514682901081821195

    ===

    So, if I have understood then what happens to them after they touch down in Rwanda is Kegame's issue not UK's.
    Do the Rwandans understand that? They're not stupid, but did HMG come clean?
    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').
    We get what we deserve. We, apparently, want ministers who will annoy the lefties.
    Democracy works, sometimes a little too well.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    Yes. It's a bad sign for Russia. They aren't even in control of their own narrative any more.
    I've never seen such a comprehensive PR meltdown in all my life. They are actually useless.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Disgracefully, nobody has mentioned the NZ Empire which commenced formally in 1901 with control of Niue and the Cook Islands and, with various comings and goings, continues to this day.

    The island of Tokelau (population 1500) is currently administrated by Ross Ardern, who happens to be Jacinda’s father.

    Did he get appointed while Jacinda has been PM? or was he in post before she was?

  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,276
    Caesar's conquest of Gaul supposedly resulted in a million killed, and a million enslaved, which must have been quite a high proportion of the population at the time. So I guess the Roman empire must go down as one of the most evil in history.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    edited April 2022
    BigRich said:

    Disgracefully, nobody has mentioned the NZ Empire which commenced formally in 1901 with control of Niue and the Cook Islands and, with various comings and goings, continues to this day.

    The island of Tokelau (population 1500) is currently administrated by Ross Ardern, who happens to be Jacinda’s father.

    Did he get appointed while Jacinda has been PM? or was he in post before she was?

    He was in post before she was, I think.
    He’s a former senior policeman.

    And a Mormon.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,533

    ohnotnow said:



    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').

    Yes, that's what I thought (and said on the last thread) - poised, fluent, and confident. Yolande Nkole or a name like that - I've been trying to google her without success, but she sounded a lot more on top of the issue than Priti Patel's comments from last year broadcast on the same programme.

    That doesn't mean that I approve of the scheme, but I think the Rwandans are clear what they are getting out of it. In return for taking a small number of asylum-seekers over 5 years and processing their applications under Rwandan law, they are getting a lot of money.

    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.
    We can't exclude the possibility that Johnson and Patel don't fully understand the deal they have signed up for, and they're set to get rather less for their money than they think.

    What is Britain going to do if/when we exhaust Rwandan capacity?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    If Russia “declare war” they could formally start conscription. It may also open up the opportunity (at least in deranged Russian eyes) to chemical weapons and use of tactical nuke strikes.

    It’s not obvious what NATO’s response to such provocations would be.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,760

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    When was the last time a war was officially declared? And why has formal declaration fallen out of favour?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    edited April 2022

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    I was going to say that the sinking of the Moskva could be their pretext for war that they were after.

    But then they're denying that it was Ukraine that sank it, so that doesn't work.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,058
    Russian claims about the Ukrainian kit they have destroyed is ... interesting.

    "Russian forces have eliminated 132 aircraft, 105 helicopters, 456 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,213 tanks and other armored vehicles and 249 multiple rocket launchers since the beginning of their special military operation in Ukraine,"

    https://tass.com/defense/1438181

    Oryx has total losses of *all* Ukrainian kit at 789.

    Whilst I know it's likely that fewer Ukrainian losses are recorded in open-source manners, if Russian troops can record themselves raping kids, I'm sure they'll be recording their victories over armour.

    If this is what Putin's being told, then it might explain his anger against the west. "We must have destroyed Ukraine's kit several times over! It's the west's kit we're destroying!"
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    TimT said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Top ten empires judged by might, scale, impact, romance, prowess, victories, astonishingness, pivotality

    1. British
    2. Roman
    3. Ottoman
    4. Mongol
    5. American
    6. Chinese
    7. Portuguese
    8. Spanish
    9. Inca
    10. Persian

    I would like to have seen the Akkadian Empire in there, not because it was really that big but because it was the first.

    I would also suggest perhaps the Alexandrian Macedonian Empire for its scale (From Libya to India and the River Oxus in central Asia), the fact it beat the Empire you have at Number 10 and just general coolness.

    But of course it didn't outlast its founder.

    But otherwise I think the list is pretty good.
    If we have to stick to 10, I'd relegate the Incas interesting and locally violent though they were, and vote you Akkadians in at 9, with the Johnnie-come-lately Persians staying at 10.
    To add: my justification is that they are responsible for the development of writing which we have to admit has been fairly influential.
    TBF the Incans and Chinese might differ on what "writing" was.
    There is/was a very good documentary series on iPlayer about the history of writing.
    Do you recall any further details? Please.
    It was very interesting how it showed the way in which Egyptian hieroglyphics and Chinese writing developed the same way amongst other things. So symbols directly representing something such as wheat or water could be combined with another symbol to make another word because if you added the sounds together of the two symbol words they were the same as the on other word.

    It should still be there in the documentaries: history section.
    One of my more interesting forays in Lebanon was to the museum at Biblos.
    Did you visit the beach front restaurant cafe there with the photos of their famous guests over the decades? From Errol Flynn and Brigitte Bardot to every French Prime Minister and leading politician since the 30's. An extraordinary place. Particularly if you've driven out of a a still bullet holed Beirut
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    WASHINGTON — Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit Russia’s flagship Moskva in the Black Sea, a senior Defense official said on Friday, providing the first American confirmation that the sinking of the Russian cruiser was the result of a Ukrainian strike.

    NY Times
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    That is brilliant! LOL :) I'm looking forward to the history books, '6 weeks after invading the Russians declared war'

    This might however allow them to constituently use Conscripts in the Fighting, Not that they where not before, but it might happen on a bigger scale.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,958

    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Re the Rwandan thing, has this been discussed? Pics of the tourist hostel HMG have presumably leased in a tearing hurry.

    I'm not entirely sure it will satisfy some, who will see it as pampering the illegals and refugees. And I'm not entirely sure that it can handle 30K people a year.

    https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1514569538024751113
    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/inside-rwanda-centre-asylum-seekers-uk-channel-migrants-1575640?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1649936491

    Red Cross policy wonk:

    Jon Featonby
    @jonfeatonby

    Replying to
    @sundersays

    What I’ve only just twigged about the UK plan is that it’s using inadmissibility powers, not the offshoring powers in the bill. They will judge that someone could & should have claimed asylum elsewhere. Then they deem that claim inadmissible - not the responsibility of the UK.

    https://twitter.com/jonfeatonby/status/1514682901081821195

    ===

    So, if I have understood then what happens to them after they touch down in Rwanda is Kegame's issue not UK's.
    Do the Rwandans understand that? They're not stupid, but did HMG come clean?
    There was a Rwandan minister (I think) interviewed on the PM programme on R4 yesterday - she seemed pretty clear what they had signed up for. (She actually came across as very articulate and made me think 'why aren't our ministers on top of their brief like this').
    If you go back and look at interviews etc even with New Labour era ministers, the drop in “quality” is profound.

    Whether this is generational decline, or Boris’s tendency to deliberately appoint cretins, is not clear.
    I think I may have posted this before, but there is a late 70s Panorama with a group of journalists quizzing 'The Alternative Prime Minister - Margaret Thatcher'. And her performance is quite something - on top of details and a very, very clear idea of what she wanted to achieve and _why_. I may not agree with what she did in large parts, but I can appreciate her skill. And feel really quite despairing of even the 'top talent' of today's cabinet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2xpcO7tNT4
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    tlg86 said:

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    I was going to say that the sinking of the Moskva could be their pretext for war that they were after.

    But then they're denying that it was Ukraine that sank it, so that doesn't work.
    We are declaring war and mobilising all young men for the military because our warship sank in heavy seas.

  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,958


    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.

    That's really interesting. I didn't even know that Israel had tried the same thing. Something to read up on, thanks!
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283

    If Russia “declare war” they could formally start conscription. It may also open up the opportunity (at least in deranged Russian eyes) to chemical weapons and use of tactical nuke strikes.

    It’s not obvious what NATO’s response to such provocations would be.

    I'm sadly resigned to the idea that at some point Vlad will use a battlefield nuke in his desperation. Doesn't bear thinking about but seems to be where we are headed very unfortunately.

    God alone knows what the Pentagon has wargamed for that, when/if it happens.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    Germany backing away from supplying tanks.

    Tension between SDP and more hawkish Green/FDP.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    Given the inability of his air force to get supremacy I cannot see how Putin gets anything out of this war unless he is prepared to use nuclear weapons. They can get a land corridor to Crimea but how long can they hold on to it. Eventually the Ukrainians are surely going to force them out. There is simply no end game for Putin.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    ohnotnow said:


    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.

    That's really interesting. I didn't even know that Israel had tried the same thing. Something to read up on, thanks!
    Perhaps Priti Patel got the idea when she was doing her freelance foreign policy with the Israelis a few year back. She obviously didn't understand the part about it being a shameful failure, owing to her being thick as pig shit.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    tlg86 said:

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    I was going to say that the sinking of the Moskva could be their pretext for war that they were after.

    But then they're denying that it was Ukraine that sank it, so that doesn't work.
    Can we/the Ukrainians get the rest of the Black Sea fleet? Or drop some munitions on Sevastopol?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Good evening

    I haven't posted since early yesterday as I was at a family funeral all day yesterday and have been out most of today

    However, I have concluded the following:

    Conservative mps need to replace Boris ASAP

    The Rwanda refugee scheme seems very controversial and I am not sure it will work or boost the conservatives as some think

    I expect the lib dems to do spectacularly well in may, labour ok, and conservatives to have a nightmare

    I cannot see past Starmer as next pm especially if the conservatives do not act against Boris and Rishi and even then, the momentum is with Starmer heading a minority government probably with lib dem support

    I genuinely do not know who I will vote for in 24, but my single vote is not going to make any difference as labour should come out on top

    I hope labour recover in Scotland gaining seats and further diminishing the SNP and independence

    If I lived in Scotland, as I once did, I would vote for the union candidate against the SNP, irrespective of party

    This is a tired government out of ideas and it is silly to say Boris must remain in post because of Ukraine, as he could be incapacitated in one way or another that would require a new PM anyway

    I do not see Starmer as an inspiring leader but he may not need to be as the conservative party self destruct

    Anyway I hope everyone enjoys their Good Friday evening

    Happy Easter

    Happy Easter.

    I do live in Scotland and I'm still swithering between Lib Dem and SNP.
    Pretty sure that will be my 1-2 (since it's ranked preferences not just a single X), but I don't yet know which order.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    "My father died defending Russia and now Russia is bombing me"

    92 year old sums up the utter stupidity of Vlad's war on Ukraine:



    In City Hospital No. 2, I met a woman whose story—her whole presence, really—affected me as rawly as anyone I've met in nearly two months of war. Meet ninety-two year-old Nina Rogacheva:

    https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1514936470183763968
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,146

    If Russia “declare war” they could formally start conscription. It may also open up the opportunity (at least in deranged Russian eyes) to chemical weapons and use of tactical nuke strikes.

    It’s not obvious what NATO’s response to such provocations would be.

    I'm sadly resigned to the idea that at some point Vlad will use a battlefield nuke in his desperation. Doesn't bear thinking about but seems to be where we are headed very unfortunately.

    God alone knows what the Pentagon has wargamed for that, when/if it happens.
    I would imagine that even China might be quite upset about that.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,825
    edited April 2022
    More on this, which we were discussing earlier.

    "Charlemagne
    Thank the elderly for keeping Europe’s extremists out of power
    Emmanuel Macron depends on grey-haired voters for support

    If Emmanuel Macron, the youngest-ever president of France’s Fifth Republic, gets to keep his job he will have its oldest voters to thank. Had only the ballots of those under 60 been counted in the first round on April 10th, Mr Macron would have come third—leaving France to pick between extremists of the left and right in the run-off a fortnight later." (£)

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/04/16/thank-the-elderly-for-keeping-europes-extremists-out-of-power
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,146
    tlg86 said:

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    I was going to say that the sinking of the Moskva could be their pretext for war that they were after.

    But then they're denying that it was Ukraine that sank it, so that doesn't work.
    In their strange netherworld, they are reporting both that it wasn't the Ukrainian forces that sank the ship *and* that their missile attacks on Kiev last night were revenge for the sinking of the ship.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283

    ohnotnow said:


    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.

    That's really interesting. I didn't even know that Israel had tried the same thing. Something to read up on, thanks!
    Perhaps Priti Patel got the idea when she was doing her freelance foreign policy with the Israelis a few year back. She obviously didn't understand the part about it being a shameful failure, owing to her being thick as pig shit.
    The whole thing shows how desperate Johnson's crew are becoming as the polls turn against them and their glorious leader becomes as popular as the clap.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    Andy_JS said:

    More on this, which we were discussing earlier.

    "Charlemagne
    Thank the elderly for keeping Europe’s extremists out of power
    Emmanuel Macron depends on grey-haired voters for support

    If Emmanuel Macron, the youngest-ever president of France’s Fifth Republic, gets to keep his job he will have its oldest voters to thank. Had only the ballots of those under 60 been counted in the first round on April 10th, Mr Macron would have come third—leaving France to pick between extremists of the left and right in the run-off a fortnight later." (£)

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/04/16/thank-the-elderly-for-keeping-europes-extremists-out-of-power

    Indeed and more 2017 Fillon voters voted for Macron in the first round than Pecresse. Most of them were over 60
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135
    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    BigRich said:

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    That is brilliant! LOL :) I'm looking forward to the history books, '6 weeks after invading the Russians declared war'

    This might however allow them to constituently use Conscripts in the Fighting, Not that they where not before, but it might happen on a bigger scale.
    Conscription would turbocharge the already very significant brain-drain.

    By the end of this war, the average Russian IQ is going to be in the 40s.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
    That depends. If the EU continues to move towards a Federal EU superstate and offers them a forced choice of join the Eurozone or EEA, I suspect most would choose the latter
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Andy_JS said:

    More on this, which we were discussing earlier.

    "Charlemagne
    Thank the elderly for keeping Europe’s extremists out of power
    Emmanuel Macron depends on grey-haired voters for support

    If Emmanuel Macron, the youngest-ever president of France’s Fifth Republic, gets to keep his job he will have its oldest voters to thank. Had only the ballots of those under 60 been counted in the first round on April 10th, Mr Macron would have come third—leaving France to pick between extremists of the left and right in the run-off a fortnight later." (£)

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/04/16/thank-the-elderly-for-keeping-europes-extremists-out-of-power

    There is, of course, an important driver the French really don't like to talk about - the young are much more likely to be Islamic- and African-heritage than the old are. And as with Corbyn, a lot of support for Mélenchon was Muslim, or at least people whose mums and dads were Muslim.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    I've spent the last 20 mints googling and I may not have covered all possibility's, but:

    I Think that the sinking of the Moskva, might be the largest Kremlin controled warship lost to enemy action at sea in 106 years. That is since the loss of the battleship Imperatritsa Mariya on 20 Oct 2016.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_battleship_Imperatritsa_Mariya

    They did scuttle a few of there ships in dock to avoid them being captured during WW2 But not at sea.

    https://uboat.net/allies/warships/war_losses.html?navy=USSR

    The closest 'ambiguous' case I can find is the Pre-Dregnote battleship Marat, which was bombed and sunk at anchor on 23 Sep 1941, but she 'sank' in very shallow water with her guns above the waterline, so the soviets kept there men on her and she helped in the siege of Leningrad, after which she was re-floated, and sent for reparse, (reparses where cancelled and she was scraped after the war) which as she kept on fighting thought I don't think counts.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_battleship_Petropavlovsk_(1911)

    In the civil war lots of ships had mutanes and changed hands but from what I can find non that was sunk.

    But there you are, Putin has lost the Biggest warship in 106 years. now ready for all the history buffs on here to tell me I missed something obvious.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
    That depends. If the EU continues to move towards a Federal EU superstate and offers them a forced choice of join the Eurozone or EEA, I suspect most would choose the latter
    Which is why, obviously, such a forced choice won't be offered. The EU is not what less informed Tories want to think it is. It is an organisation based on compromise and fudge. It is why it is not anything like the bogeyman Brexiteers pretend (for their own reasons) that it is.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,338
    Having crossed and now left France, it is striking that there aren't any signs of an election on - apart from extensive coverage on the radio. But no posters, no street stalls in town squares, no teams of canvassers or activists that I saw. Don't the French do physical electioneering at all?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    I'm going to give you some unsolicited advice. Take it or leave it.
    Don't focus on what other people want. Implicit in your post there is that you feel an obstacle to rejoining is lack of current support for it. Well you aren't wrong about that, but that shouldn't affect your opinion. Even if only 1 in 1000 agreed with me about something I would still hold true to my opinion.
    Obviously there's a practical element here, and I don't waste any time talking about rejoin, but if it comes up in conversation hell yeah, why not. Sign me up today. Do I think it's going to happen soon? No. But don't let the perceived unpopularity of an opinion prevent you from even having it.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    Shockingly depraved.
    Wife encourages soldier husband to rape Ukrainian women.
    How on earth has Russia bred such evil?

    https://twitter.com/ostapyarysh/status/1515008736959643652?s=21&t=w1pk6qIFoQKPY2Bkxb6q6Q

    —Go, rape Ukrainian women, OK? But don't tell me anything!
    —Can I?
    —Yes, I let you. But use condoms!

    Remember this intercepted call between the RUS soldier and his wife? @cxemu and @SvobodaRadio reporters managed to identify them. Meet Roman Bykovsky and Olga Bykovska. Thread🧵
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
    Hungary might get kicked out, although not until things are resolved in Ukraine.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    ohnotnow said:


    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.

    That's really interesting. I didn't even know that Israel had tried the same thing. Something to read up on, thanks!
    Perhaps Priti Patel got the idea when she was doing her freelance foreign policy with the Israelis a few year back. She obviously didn't understand the part about it being a shameful failure, owing to her being thick as pig shit.
    The whole thing shows how desperate Johnson's crew are becoming as the polls turn against them and their glorious leader becomes as popular as the clap.
    At least one might get a certain pleasure in the process of getting the clap. I had no such ecstasy in seeing Johnson elected, but then I guess some gullible fuckwits did.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited April 2022
    BigRich said:

    I've spent the last 20 mints googling and I may not have covered all possibility's, but:

    I Think that the sinking of the Moskva, might be the largest Kremlin controled warship lost to enemy action at sea in 106 years. That is since the loss of the battleship Imperatritsa Mariya on 20 Oct 2016.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_battleship_Imperatritsa_Mariya

    They did scuttle a few of there ships in dock to avoid them being captured during WW2 But not at sea.

    https://uboat.net/allies/warships/war_losses.html?navy=USSR

    The closest 'ambiguous' case I can find is the Pre-Dregnote battleship Marat, which was bombed and sunk at anchor on 23 Sep 1941, but she 'sank' in very shallow water with her guns above the waterline, so the soviets kept there men on her and she helped in the siege of Leningrad, after which she was re-floated, and sent for reparse, (reparses where cancelled and she was scraped after the war) which as she kept on fighting thought I don't think counts.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_battleship_Petropavlovsk_(1911)

    In the civil war lots of ships had mutanes and changed hands but from what I can find non that was sunk.

    But there you are, Putin has lost the Biggest warship in 106 years. now ready for all the history buffs on here to tell me I missed something obvious.

    I think I'm right in saying the Russians are still trying to pretend the Kursk was lost to enemy action? Because that was very slightly bigger.

    There's a certain irony that they're claiming one flagship was sabotaged and sunk when really its torpedoes caught fire and exploded, and they're trying to pretend with the other its munitions exploded when really it was hit by enemy missiles.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    You don't seem to have twigged that the EU doesn't do "a solution if not in name, but in practice". If they did, we'd have a resolution on the border in Ireland.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    Leon said:

    Still hiking the Chilterns. In the majestic Ashridge Estate. And yet I learn that “75-80% of the ash trees in the UK will die in the next decade” - due to ash dieback

    This is horrendous. Why is the entire world turning to shit?

    Law of nature - We come from shit and will return to shit?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948

    Shockingly depraved.
    Wife encourages soldier husband to rape Ukrainian women.
    How on earth has Russia bred such evil?

    https://twitter.com/ostapyarysh/status/1515008736959643652?s=21&t=w1pk6qIFoQKPY2Bkxb6q6Q

    —Go, rape Ukrainian women, OK? But don't tell me anything!
    —Can I?
    —Yes, I let you. But use condoms!

    Remember this intercepted call between the RUS soldier and his wife? @cxemu and @SvobodaRadio reporters managed to identify them. Meet Roman Bykovsky and Olga Bykovska. Thread🧵

    I think the principle of supporting one another for a strong marriage may have been twisted somewhat.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,485
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Still hiking the Chilterns. In the majestic Ashridge Estate. And yet I learn that “75-80% of the ash trees in the UK will die in the next decade” - due to ash dieback

    This is horrendous. Why is the entire world turning to shit?

    Law of nature - We come from shit and will return to shit?
    Earth to earth, ashes to ashes, dust to dust.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870
    edited April 2022

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    You don't seem to have twigged that the EU doesn't do "a solution if not in name, but in practice". If they did, we'd have a resolution on the border in Ireland.
    Possibly true.

    But also true that British policy has consisted of badmouthing and serial gaslighting, which has hardly built confidence in such solutions.

    All cheered on by people like yourself.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    tlg86 said:

    Incredibly, Russia is threatening to declare war on Ukraine.

    Yes, that is hilarious, but AIUI there is a practical reason Russia may need to. If they declare war, as opposes to an SMO, they have much more latitude in terms of conscription. If they declare 'war', take it as a sign that their manpower crunch is worse than expected.
    I was going to say that the sinking of the Moskva could be their pretext for war that they were after.

    But then they're denying that it was Ukraine that sank it, so that doesn't work.
    You underestimate their creativity.
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    Rob Key will be formally appointed as England’s new managing director of men’s cricket next week, replacing Ashley Giles who was sacked from the role after the 4-0 defeat in the Ashes.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-to-become-englands-managing-director-of-mens-cricket-by-next-week-cdj3dk0zl
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,631

    I’m gutted. The Little Yellow Train is closed.

    On the slightly brighter side, there is a replacement bus service (that only costs a euro) that means I can continue with the route I’ve (barely!) planned, just without quite the views I was expecting.

    Also, where I am now in Vernet Les Bains is stunning. It’s in the foothills of the Canigou mountain. Rudyard Kipling fell in love with the mountain when staying here 111 years ago. He wrote the short story “Why Snow Falls at Vernet”, which mocks the English for always talking about the weather. And he wrote this letter to the Club Alpin where he describes it as a “magician among mountains”.

    I think I’ll cope with the disappointment somehow! And I’ll definitely be back some day to catch the little train.

    What about Crawling with the Turtles or Hopping with the Toads or whatever critters it is you wish to pester?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    Rob Key will be formally appointed as England’s new managing director of men’s cricket next week, replacing Ashley Giles who was sacked from the role after the 4-0 defeat in the Ashes.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-to-become-englands-managing-director-of-mens-cricket-by-next-week-cdj3dk0zl

    That's terrible news, he's a big fan of Jos Buttler.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Late afternoon all :)

    Out and about in suburban London and good to see plenty of people enjoying the fine Easter weather - have to say the usual "Planned Engineering Works" were the usual annoyance. The figures indicate leisure travel is more swiftly returning to pre-Covid levels than commuter traffic - the notion of disrupting the former regularly needs some re-thinking.

    On topic, another example of how politics defies simplistic solutions and works on many levels and nuances. I'm under no illusions - the LDs are not seeing a vast surge of enthusiastic new supporters who will die in the ditch for Ed Davey or Daisy Cooper. What we are seeing is a disillusioned Conservative vote utilising local by-elections and indeed local elections to send several unmistakeable messages to the Government.

    None of that suggests these voters are lost to the Government in perpetuity and indeed there's little actual enthusiasm for the alternatives on offer but said alternatives provide a usual purpose - our old mate, the protest vote, harmless in terms of running the country but deadly to Conservative council and council groups.

    Looking for instance at Bisley & West End, on the face of it a spectacular LD gain but there's less and more to it than that. Last year, the Lightwater, Bisley & West End returned a Conservative County Councillor with a 520 majority. In 2019, Bisley & West End returned two Conservatives and an Independent while Lightwater returned two Greens and a Conservative.

    Thursday's Conservative vote share in Bisley & West End was very similar to 2019 but in the absence of any other opposition candidate, the anti-Conservative vote coalesced around the LD candidate and the seat was an easy gain.

    The problem for the Conservatives is if we are comparing 2022 to 2019 it's going to be a difficult night for the Conservatives but an unconvincing one for Labour. Back in 2019, when BXP was at its height, the Conservatives and Labour were tied on an NEV of 28% - in 2018 they were tied on 35%. That suggests a 7% vote drop for the Conservatives from the last time the London Boroughs were contested.

    That would spell ordinarily a huge night for Labour but the inconvenient truth is there is still no huge direct swing from Conservative to Labour (the Wirral South effect). Instead the minor parties with local campaigning roots look set to be the big winners - the LDs, Greens, Independents, Residents and the like.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    You don't seem to have twigged that the EU doesn't do "a solution if not in name, but in practice". If they did, we'd have a resolution on the border in Ireland.
    I don't have any reason to defend the EU. It is a very imperfect organisation, as I mentioned in my previous post. Our own system is also very imperfect. I suspect their view is that Johnson made the fuckup so he will have to fix it. My ability therefore to "twig" what the EU or UK does or doesn't do in the future is as based on guess work as yours, though possibly not as heavily affected by the rose coloured spectacles of the Brexiteer.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,058

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    kamski said:

    Caesar's conquest of Gaul supposedly resulted in a million killed, and a million enslaved, which must have been quite a high proportion of the population at the time. So I guess the Roman empire must go down as one of the most evil in history.

    Worse people to be ruled by, but the process of becoming ruled not a pleasant one.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    Non-sequitur alert.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
    Hungary might get kicked out, although not until things are resolved in Ukraine.
    Unlikely. It is not the way the EU works. There will be a lot of beating of breasts and discussion, but little more.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    The EU is the mean-spirited one. They could let Brits cross their borders without let or hindrance. They choose not to. We are friends and allies, we just choose not to be a member of their expensive club.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Top ten empires judged by might, scale, impact, romance, prowess, victories, astonishingness, pivotality

    1. British
    2. Roman
    3. Ottoman
    4. Mongol
    5. American
    6. Chinese
    7. Portuguese
    8. Spanish
    9. Inca
    10. Persian

    Roman before British, surely.
    That was a close call.

    However the sheer scale of the british empire - the biggest ever - edges it for me. Also the global impact of English and industry, springing therefrom
    A slightly better exit from Empire too, although the jury might still be out on that.
    Is 50 years not enough for you?? Most was gone by 1972....
    Brunei and Belize endured till the '80s. And Hong Kong went in 1997.
    Wasn’t our very first true colony Bermuda? It is mentioned by Shakespeare. And we still have it

    500 years….
    You’d think they’d have earned full incorporation into the UK by now, as France has done with some of its overseas regions.

    The UK.
    England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland…and BERMUDA.
    Sadly have probably missed the boat on that option with a lot of places. Probably shouldn't have said no to Malta.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    We won't rejoin the full EU now. That would require the Euro and Schengen. EEA is possible once immigration is under control.

    However it is more likely non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Hungary leave the EU than the UK rejoins it
    Well of course not "now" Sherlock! As for those other countries I assume you know very little about them. The chances of any of them including Hungary following the laughing stock Brexit model is infinitesimally small
    Hungary might get kicked out, although not until things are resolved in Ukraine.
    Unlikely. It is not the way the EU works. There will be a lot of beating of breasts and discussion, but little more.
    I said, “might”.
    There’s no precedent for it, but we live in unprecedented times.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    The EU is the mean-spirited one. They could let Brits cross their borders without let or hindrance. They choose not to. We are friends and allies, we just choose not to be a member of their expensive club.
    It’s not us it’s them!
    Honest, miss.
    PS I have a girlfriend but you wouldn’t know her, she goes to another school.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797
    edited April 2022
    I've been learning about some fascinating stuff in Finland.
    It looks like the Russian military have been buying up land in Finland with the front of being for 'tourism', through oligarchs who have bought EU passports in places like Cyprus.
    What they actually are, is special forces bases. In one egregious example, they submitted very detailed plans to the Finnish authorities for a 530sqm guest villa, and roads around the island they bought, but then actually also built a hidden heliport to military specifications, which they didn't tell anyone about.
    The plan was to send special forces in, in groups of 2-3 in hire cars posing as tourists, and then they do their "operations" from the "holiday village" beyond the border.
    There are 8 battalions on the Finnish Border, many of which spoke Finnish.
    What the Finns did over the years, was just let them do it, and just watch them to get information, and then the various schemes eventually got busted, the helipad example being one.
    The trouble for Russia now, is that the 8 batallions on the Russian Border have all gone to Ukraine, many have died in the process, so they are now effectively non functioning, which diminishes the threat to Finland.
    It is pretty impressive actually, Finland has effectively been in its own cold war with Russia for 80 years.
    There is compulsory national service, for 6 months, for men, (and women if they want to do it). You aren't forced to fight, you can for example work in a care home, as that would still contribute to the war effort.
    If Finland join NATO, it is going to benefit NATO enormously - as it is an army that has actually been alert for all these years, and knows Russia very well, not asleep like some countries.
    From Finlands point of view, they need NATO, for air defence - same fundamental issue as Ukraine.
    Lots of Ukrainian flags in Helsinki yesterday, they were everywhere, effectively replacing Finnish flags.
    Obviously there was some complacency within the civilian population about Russia, lots of businesses catering to Russians etc, and naivety about the threat. This was why there was never sufficient public support to join NATO. Ukraine is a game changer, in that respect.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,389

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    The EU is the mean-spirited one. They could let Brits cross their borders without let or hindrance. They choose not to. We are friends and allies, we just choose not to be a member of their expensive club.
    Like we do?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,946
    edited April 2022
    Latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll . Fieldwork 13-15 April.

    Macron 56 (+1)
    Le Pen 44 (-1)

    The Mélenchon vote breaks 28 to 16 for Macron but there is a very high rate of abstentions in that group.

    Other polls have a closer race between 4 and 7 points .
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    I’m gutted. The Little Yellow Train is closed.

    On the slightly brighter side, there is a replacement bus service (that only costs a euro) that means I can continue with the route I’ve (barely!) planned, just without quite the views I was expecting.

    Also, where I am now in Vernet Les Bains is stunning. It’s in the foothills of the Canigou mountain. Rudyard Kipling fell in love with the mountain when staying here 111 years ago. He wrote the short story “Why Snow Falls at Vernet”, which mocks the English for always talking about the weather. And he wrote this letter to the Club Alpin where he describes it as a “magician among mountains”.

    I think I’ll cope with the disappointment somehow! And I’ll definitely be back some day to catch the little train.

    What about Crawling with the Turtles or Hopping with the Toads or whatever critters it is you wish to pester?
    I’ll be tickling the tiny tortoises on my way back to Girona next week.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key will be formally appointed as England’s new managing director of men’s cricket next week, replacing Ashley Giles who was sacked from the role after the 4-0 defeat in the Ashes.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-to-become-englands-managing-director-of-mens-cricket-by-next-week-cdj3dk0zl

    That's terrible news, he's a big fan of Jos Buttler.
    He's a big fan of using the words "I'm a big fan".
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,879

    I’m gutted. The Little Yellow Train is closed.

    On the slightly brighter side, there is a replacement bus service (that only costs a euro) that means I can continue with the route I’ve (barely!) planned, just without quite the views I was expecting.

    Also, where I am now in Vernet Les Bains is stunning. It’s in the foothills of the Canigou mountain. Rudyard Kipling fell in love with the mountain when staying here 111 years ago. He wrote the short story “Why Snow Falls at Vernet”, which mocks the English for always talking about the weather. And he wrote this letter to the Club Alpin where he describes it as a “magician among mountains”.

    I think I’ll cope with the disappointment somehow! And I’ll definitely be back some day to catch the little train.

    What about Crawling with the Turtles or Hopping with the Toads or whatever critters it is you wish to pester?
    I’ll be tickling the tiny tortoises on my way back to Girona next week.
    Awwww. Lovely things, tortoises.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,058

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    Non-sequitur alert.
    Not really. Just an anecdote that Germany isn't the shining beacon of joy he was making out.

    I can give other evidence, if you like. We could start with their actions over Ukraine?

    (This is not to say that Germany is uniquely bad; just that every country has flaws.)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key will be formally appointed as England’s new managing director of men’s cricket next week, replacing Ashley Giles who was sacked from the role after the 4-0 defeat in the Ashes.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-to-become-englands-managing-director-of-mens-cricket-by-next-week-cdj3dk0zl

    That's terrible news, he's a big fan of Jos Buttler.
    He's a big fan of using the words "I'm a big fan".
    The only thing that should resemble a big fan in cricket is the person managing squad rotation.

    Otherwise, players should be selected, or dropped, on their merits.
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited April 2022
    On asylum seekers / boat people.

    The correct solution is, indeed, as the government has identified - to put the people traffickers out of business.

    They’re going about it in completely the wrong way, though.

    Take the 1.4bn£ (More if necessary) and give it to the secret services and a free hand to break whatever domestic/foreign laws necessary.

    Properly go after these shitheads, wherever they’re based.

    That would actually solve the problem. Which isn’t the aim of the governments current, stupid policy, of course.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    I'm going to give you some unsolicited advice. Take it or leave it.
    Don't focus on what other people want. Implicit in your post there is that you feel an obstacle to rejoining is lack of current support for it. Well you aren't wrong about that, but that shouldn't affect your opinion. Even if only 1 in 1000 agreed with me about something I would still hold true to my opinion.
    Obviously there's a practical element here, and I don't waste any time talking about rejoin, but if it comes up in conversation hell yeah, why not. Sign me up today. Do I think it's going to happen soon? No. But don't let the perceived unpopularity of an opinion prevent you from even having it.
    Thanks for the unsolicited advice. As a humble chap I am never too proud to ignore it. My post was an opinion based on pragmatism. Most of my political view is right-centrist and pragmatic. Change for the sake of change is pointless. One of the strengths of the British (relative) democracy is the fact that it has evolved through the application of pragmatism . Show me one ordinary person who has benefitted in their every day life from Brexit. You will struggle. The same will apply to Scottish "independence". A few will benefit, but they are mainly the people that tried to convince others the change was essential or desirable when in truth they knew it was pointless.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key will be formally appointed as England’s new managing director of men’s cricket next week, replacing Ashley Giles who was sacked from the role after the 4-0 defeat in the Ashes.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-to-become-englands-managing-director-of-mens-cricket-by-next-week-cdj3dk0zl

    That's terrible news, he's a big fan of Jos Buttler.
    He's a big fan of using the words "I'm a big fan".
    The only thing that should resemble a big fan in cricket is the person managing squad rotation.

    Otherwise, players should be selected, or dropped, on their merits.
    Nonsense, it should be like our leaders - based on what school they went to.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354



    We can't exclude the possibility that Johnson and Patel don't fully understand the deal they have signed up for, and they're set to get rather less for their money than they think.

    What is Britain going to do if/when we exhaust Rwandan capacity?

    That'll be in no time - the Rwandan interviewee IIRC talked in terms of some hundreds, up to a couple of thousand over 5 years, though she was a bit vaguer on that point. That's what makes it principally a PR thing.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,631
    Breaking - Seattle Times ($) - President Biden to visit Seattle next Friday [April 22]

    President Joe Biden will travel to Seattle next Friday in his first visit as president, according to the White House.

    While details have yet to be announced, the visit will center on the administration’s efforts “to continue bringing down costs for American families and building a more resilient economy,” according to the White House.

    The visit comes amid sagging national approval numbers for the president, and growing worries among Democrats that inflation will cost the party control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections.

    Biden has blamed the inflation spike on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Biden last visited Seattle in November 2019 while campaigning in the Democratic presidential primaries. He attended a fundraiser at the home of Amazon executive David Zapolsky.

    Additional details were expected to be released about the visit in the coming days.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,870

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    Non-sequitur alert.
    Not really. Just an anecdote that Germany isn't the shining beacon of joy he was making out.

    I can give other evidence, if you like. We could start with their actions over Ukraine?

    (This is not to say that Germany is uniquely bad; just that every country has flaws.)
    You’d have an argument if he’d said Germany was perfect, which he didn’t.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,879
    edited April 2022



    We can't exclude the possibility that Johnson and Patel don't fully understand the deal they have signed up for, and they're set to get rather less for their money than they think.

    What is Britain going to do if/when we exhaust Rwandan capacity?

    That'll be in no time - the Rwandan interviewee IIRC talked in terms of some hundreds, up to a couple of thousand over 5 years, though she was a bit vaguer on that point. That's what makes it principally a PR thing.
    How odd. That i story I linked to was talkingf about 30K a year.

    One would almost think HMG don't expect it to work and will blame everyone else from Ben Wallace and SKS downward.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,146

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    The EU is the mean-spirited one. They could let Brits cross their borders without let or hindrance. They choose not to. We are friends and allies, we just choose not to be a member of their expensive club.
    But... We had that. Then we left the club (it was as you say expensive.) And now we don't. The deal Boris did, didn't include that, so here we are. We left. We didn't negotiate free movement (in fact, I seem to remember that was a thing we specifically didn't want.).
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,135

    A lovely day walking in the Black Forest. Germany is such a well-functioning, prosperous country, the roads full of cars and trucks from all over Europe carrying people and goods across seamless borders to boost trade and mutual prosperity. Mean-spirited, incompetent Britain, obsessed with securing its borders (an impossible goal in any case) while trade whithers and the country falls even further behind, seems very far away.
    People drive bloody fast on the autobahn though, don't they. 170 was all I could tolerate.

    About a decade ago, Mrs J and I drove down through Germany to attend a wedding on the Austrian border. We stopped on the first night halfway down the country, and Mrs J experienced a large amount of racist abuse from some youths and men outside our motel.

    She has never experienced any gratuitous racial abuse in several decades of living in the UK.

    So perhaps Germany has a few more issues than you think?
    No problems for us, everyone very friendly.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    kamski said:

    Caesar's conquest of Gaul supposedly resulted in a million killed, and a million enslaved, which must have been quite a high proportion of the population at the time. So I guess the Roman empire must go down as one of the most evil in history.

    Worse people to be ruled by, but the process of becoming ruled not a pleasant one.
    Being ruled by Rome was bad. Like all empires, Rome was an extractive system leading to poverty for the subjected peoples.

    "An unpublished survey of 1,867 skeletons from sixty-one sites in Britain likewise documents an increase in body height after the end of Roman rule. These findings reinforce the general impression conveyed by a more eclectic long-term survey of stature in different parts of Europe that identifies troughs during the Roman period and the High Middle Ages and peaks in the post Roman period and in the wake of the Black Death."

    What we can learn from evidence like this is that in times of high inequality, which is what happens when extractive regimes hold hegemonic power, the average citizen suffers. Empires is an extremely bad system of government for normal people, and the continued sense of nostalgia and romance around them is a function of the narrative focus on the elites, who, of course, benefit hugely from such a system of government.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    @yougov

    Who do Britons want to win the French presidential election?

    All Britons: Macron 37% / Le Pen 19%

    Con voters: Macron 24% / Le Pen 37%
    Lab voters: Macron 53% / Le Pen 8%

    There they are again, that 20%, same people - Trump, Hard Brexit, now LePen. Will also, if asked, be very keen on the idea of decanting refugees to Rwanda. What a horror show. Should be packed off to Rwanda themselves imo.
    Looking at those figures confirms for me why I left the Conservative Party. People who can endorse Le Pen have nothing in common with me. Shows the unfortunate distance and direction the Conservative Party has travelled in its desire to appease and please those who voted for Farage.
    I agree with you completely (you can share the smelling salts).

    Macron is an abject, awful, inappropriate, disaster of a quasi-effective President.

    He's also the only option on the ballot and needs to win. Anyone backing Le Pen is either ignorant or has very unpleasant politics, or both.
    Although I believe you once also voted for Farage, in some respects Le Pen is now more the French Farage than the French Nick Griffin, with economic policies closer to Labour than the Tories
    For the umpteenth time I never voted for Farage.

    I cast a protest vote to get rid of a failed Prime Minister and to expel Farage from the European Parliament.

    I have never and would never cast a vote to get Farage into Parliament, I voted to get him out of it.
    Smelling salts no longer needed. You voted for Farage. Your excuses are no doubt similar to those people in France who will use similar excuses for reasons to vote Le Pen. There are no excuses that excuse voting for fascists IMO.
    By accusing Farage of being a fascist you degrade your whole argument. But then when it comes to the EU you never had much of an argument anyway.
    It is an area where we disagree Richard, though we agree on many other areas I think. Farage is most definitely a Fascist IMO. You voted for him once I believe so I am sure you are sensitive on the subject because you are clearly not.
    PS. If by "my argument" you mean my position regarding Brexit, then I have been proven 100% correct. It was a complete and utter waste of time. It was pointless and has benefitted but a few. I am not in favour of re-join, so my "argument", old chap, is far more rational than yours, which was built on fairy tales.
    Why aren't you in favour of rejoining? Seems like a good option to me.
    IMO it isn't practical, certainly not in the short to medium term. My main objection to Brexit was that it was pointless and divisive. I think rejoining would certainly be the latter. A better half way house would be to have a strong trading relationship with EU, which might be an EEA type solution if not in name, but in practice. I suspect that maybe one day we will rejoin, but the other 27 will only allow that if there is a clear massive majority in favour. It will take many decades for that to happen.
    You don't seem to have twigged that the EU doesn't do "a solution if not in name, but in practice". If they did, we'd have a resolution on the border in Ireland.
    Possibly true.

    But also true that British policy has consisted of badmouthing and serial gaslighting, which has hardly built confidence in such solutions.

    All cheered on by people like yourself.
    Whatever....
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,879
    This thread has had a one-way trip to Rwanda.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354
    edited April 2022
    ohnotnow said:


    Haaretz (an Israeli paper that I get summaries from) says the Israeli experiment with Rwanda on similar terms collapsed, because in practice the Rwandans were not willing to provide asylum, so the migrants struggled along on the initial grant until the money ran out, and then had to depend on friends, sleep on the street or try to find their way back by illegal means. They didn't really blame the Rwandans - they did not allege any corruption or hostility - but the flaw seems to have been partly that Rwandan asylum isn't any easier to get than Israeli (or British?) asylum, and partly that no long-term plan existed, so Israel was essentially dumping ineligible applicants on Rwanda, with enough money to survive for a couple of years, after which they were nobody's problem. Israel has now ended the arrangement as it became increasingly seen as short-sighted and unfair.

    That's really interesting. I didn't even know that Israel had tried the same thing. Something to read up on, thanks!
    This is the Haaretz article about how the Israeli scheme was set up - it sounds very similar.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-to-pay-rwanda-5-000-for-every-asylum-seeker-deported-there-1.5466805

    This is an article about how it went wrong:

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/asylum-seekers-who-left-israel-for-rwanda-warn-those-remaining-don-t-1.5785996
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    edited April 2022
    ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,948
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    kamski said:

    Caesar's conquest of Gaul supposedly resulted in a million killed, and a million enslaved, which must have been quite a high proportion of the population at the time. So I guess the Roman empire must go down as one of the most evil in history.

    Worse people to be ruled by, but the process of becoming ruled not a pleasant one.
    Being ruled by Rome was bad. Like all empires, Rome was an extractive system leading to poverty for the subjected peoples.

    "An unpublished survey of 1,867 skeletons from sixty-one sites in Britain likewise documents an increase in body height after the end of Roman rule. These findings reinforce the general impression conveyed by a more eclectic long-term survey of stature in different parts of Europe that identifies troughs during the Roman period and the High Middle Ages and peaks in the post Roman period and in the wake of the Black Death."

    What we can learn from evidence like this is that in times of high inequality, which is what happens when extractive regimes hold hegemonic power, the average citizen suffers. Empires is an extremely bad system of government for normal people, and the continued sense of nostalgia and romance around them is a function of the narrative focus on the elites, who, of course, benefit hugely from such a system of government.
    I didn't say it was good to be ruled by them. I hate the expression, but you've clearly been triggered for some reason into seeing more there than I wrote. I said there were worse people to be ruled by, that doesn't mean it was good or nice.
This discussion has been closed.