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Worrying by-election pointers for Tories ahead of May 5th – politicalbetting.com
Worrying by-election pointers for Tories ahead of May 5th – politicalbetting.com
Heybridge West (Maldon) council by-election result:LDEM: 44.8% (+44.8)CON: 18.4% (-21.2)IND (Burwood): 16.0% (+16.0)IND (Perry): 12.4% (+12.4)LAB: 8.4% (+8.4)No other Ind(s) (-60.4) as prev.Votes cast: 581Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
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Meanwhile here in the Alsace, it’s a beautiful morning.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514766062771875851
The logic there is almost too fncked up to comprehend, but it does strongly suggest that the Russian public have no idea of the scale of their losses to date if this incident is such a trigger. The desperate anger is palpable.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067793/Midlands_water_situation_report_March_2022.pdf
It also shows some cognitive dissonance with what appears to be the Russian official line: that a fire started on Moskva that led to ammunition explosions: i.e. Ukraine was not involved at all.
It's hard to work out which is the most embarrassing for the Russian military: their procedures were so lax that at least one Ukrainian missile got through; or the fact their ships can spontaneously combust.
I'm going with the timeline coming from Turkey, which shows the Russians are liars-liars-pants-on-fire.
"At 1.14 a.m., the cruiser lay on its side, and after half an hour, all the electricity went out. From 2 a.m., the Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser, and at about 3 a.m., Turkiye and Romania reported that the ship had completely sunk. The related loss of Russian personnel is still unknown, although there were 485 crew on board (66 of them officers),"
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/turkish-ship-rescued-54-sailors-on-damaged-russian-naval-cruiser-moskva/2564125
But it will become steadily harder to gloss over the reality of the land war.
The next few weeks are going to be very dangerous ones, given Russia’s limited set of options for escalation.
And Good Morning all; bright and sunny here in Essex; significantly better than the BBC says it is!
We could also consider something if Ukraine win.
The point is that this is deeply ingrained. Imagine the worst Brexit style jingoism amplified times 100, dished out constantly for years. When reality dawns it will be painful.
The first is that with the aid of additional men and equipment the Russians continue slow progress across the south of the country at considerable cost.
The second is that the Russians lose ground and personnel as the Ukrainians get ever more NATO kit and use this to destroy Russia's artillary. The radar systems designed to identify, track and then take out not particularly mobile Russian artillary could be a real gamechanger here.
The third is that we end up with a bloody but exhausted stalemate, the sort of low level warfare we have seen in Donetsk for the last 8 years writ large.
Of these the second is currently looking the most likely. If Russia is clearly defeated by vastly superior western kit how will they react? They will undoubtedly blame NATO for the defeat. The reaction to the loss of the Moscow gives us some idea. It will be a time of great risk for both the Putin regime and the world. We should perhaps be careful what we wish for.
Patriotism works well, but even the most patriotic will have doubts. They know politicians lie, but Russian politicians are bad liars.
In times of war, patriotism peaks. I've no doubt Zelensky has told a fib or two, but Lavrov has admitted the Russians are not bothered about Western media attitudes, it's all for home consumption. It's blunt, almost childish, and often contradictory
Politicians lie to the public and to each other, and they all know they're lying. On immigration, the right believe they're all economic migrants rather than asylum seekers. The left believe they're all fleeing (and the press always use that word) war and bigotry. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between, but no one publicly admits it.
Putin's problem has always been there was no plan B. Ukraine has the upper hand in PR for obvious reasons and at least, the anti-Nato and anti-US brigade have been quietened for a time. It makes them silent but sullen. But I doubt if many minds are ever changed.
They're the equivalent of a violent drunkard in a pub, who starts fights and then takes grievance when someone sober knocks their teeth out in self-defence.
Russia needs humiliation: they need to lose in Ukraine, and be seen to lose, and for their public to understand the loss occurred not due to some evil cheating by Ukraine and the west, but because the Russian leadership started an unprovoked war and waged it incompetently. Russians need to understand that their regime are the aggressors; their regime are the evil-doers.
Only then will we stop this happening again in a few years.
It's why all the sh*t excuses we see trotted out excusing Russia for this aggression: we poked them, we guaranteed no NATO eastwards expansion; Russia has a right to have protection from neighbouring states; are all dangerous. The world needs to be clear: this is Russian aggression, and they are the evil-doers. If it was not for Putin's orders, tens of thousands of civilians and military personnel would still be alive, and millions of people would not be displaced.
They must suffer humiliation, whatever the risks. Because those risks still remain even if they are not humiliated, and would in fact increase as Putin turns his eyes to the NATO Baltic states.
When I thought today couldn't get any stranger, man walking his ferret in Manchester station
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/915632013637496832
What they appear to have missed is that they would be a minor player in such a new world order. *If* it happens, it would be dominated by China, India and Brazil (if they take part), with some African countries potentially giving Russia a run for their money in the long term.
Russia is going to have to face the fact it has a diminished place in the world; a position that Putin's little Ukrainian adventure has worsened.
For the Tories:
* Horrible in the south
* Bad in the north
* OK in the midlands
* Bad in Wales
* Very bad in Scotland
For Labour:
* OK in the south
* Good in the north
* Worrying in the midlands
* Good in Wales
* Promising in Scotland
This year might, just might, be different!
The truth will see them shot.
I'll take a tapir.....
Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/14/exclusive-tories-set-lose-800-council-seats-sir-keir-starmer/
It was neurotic.
https://twitter.com/hike_charity/status/1514594342865936384
EU countries last year sold to Russia weapons and ammunition worth 39 million euros ($42.3 million), according to the latest data made available by the EU Commission — up more than 50% from 2020, when sales were worth 25 million euros, a volume in line with previous years.
The EU had banned the export of arms to Moscow in July 2014 in reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea, but a clause in the sanctions permitted sales under contracts signed before August 2014.
Countries with large defense industries, such as France and Germany, were among the largest exporters.
https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-closes-loophole-allowing-multimillion-euro-arms-sales-to-russia/6529031.html
“The land can't wait; we need to sow, fertilize&plant. Our Armed Forces&people must be fed. We have a second front here, which we, agricultural workers of #Ukraine️ must defend&protect!” say farmers
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514830674875887619
Not without risks.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514765772035440640
Do you differ? Do you think the Russian regime are the good guys? Do you think the Ukrainians have brought the death and destruction on themselves? How do you get shades-of-grey out of what Russia has done?
Well that's what she says anyway.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1514502020258050051
There’s a chance of course he uses nerve gas in Ukraine. But he must know that would likely be met with a barrage of cruise missiles at all Russian military assets in Ukraine. Painted yellow & blue or red, white and blue I couldn’t say.
I also still wonder if he might look east for a victory rather than West. Kazakhstan perhaps. There’s a definite spillover risk to the ‘Stans, which have been very reliant on remittances from their citizens working in Russia. So I gather those remittances are drying up due to the banking sanctions, could be a lot of young unemployed heading home. Add to that, Kazakh crude flowing through the CPC pipeline is fast becoming persona non grata, because it’s comingled with Russian molecules (10% of the total).
I don’t think many there were considering an X alongside the Tory candidate, FWIW.
Who were impressed with the positive effect of the 'export of refugees' policy.
Then - vaporised in a pre-emptive strike by the voters.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xxxmjr
@Dura_Ace
@NickPalmer
@Luckyguy1983
Any others?
I have a couple, similarly minded, in my friend/family network
I don’t necessarily condemn them. I quite strongly disagree - but it’s a free country. I just wish they’d be less mealy mouthed sometimes
The catch with the "he'll walk when he fears defeat" idea (which is what I kinda suspect too) is BoJo's Boosterism. Will he be able to read the writing on the wall? Will there be anyone left in the bunker who will read it to him? Will the message get through?
Ukraine and Russia were and are both dysfunctional shitholes largely populated by people with the Slavic love of secrets and lies. It's impossible to tell what's really going on because of that and our media cleaves to the Ukrainian line on events. I don't give a fuck about the fate of either nation.
Because that’s what we’re looking at. This year so far is doubling the number last year; which doubled the number the year before. Etc
It would mean the war, the sanctions, losses, global pariah status would have all been a pointless waste of time. Wars that get you back to where you started (like Korea) are the most pointless and seem like the most likely to undermine Putin at home without him being able to rally people against a threat to the motherland.
The only age group to prefer Macron over Le Pen were the over 60s.
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
The fact is there are zero reports of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian cities raping 12 year olds or shooting bicyclists. Even in Russian media.
That’s all you need to know
They only activities that seem to bring them any sort of peace is going to McDonalds and horse riding.
Are we talking small margins of a lead, or big pluralities?
Ukraine's main 'culpability' is in not having rolled over, ignored democracy and put in place a Putin lapdog as leader. That way there would have been no war. It is also anti-democratic, and would allow Putin to do the same with other Baltic and eastern European states - who he openly says are his targets.
So I fundamentally disagree with you on this. I don't see any of Ukraine's 'sins' as being anything near deserving the death and destruction that has been visited upon it.
It *is* black and white. The Russian regime are doing evil. Blaming the Ukrainians for that evil is shit.
(*) A complaint that can be made about the US and various countries as well.
I don't know what the answer is; if moderates leave the party when it goes mad (see Corbyn Labour, or Johnson Conservatives), it just concentrates the insanity. There comes a point where one has no choice, natch, but it's incredibly hard for an elected representative to do that.
Besides, why should we hold a candidate for Yourtown Borough Council accountable for Johnson being a nasty piece of work who surrounds himself with nasty pieces of work? (Soon to be ex-)Councillor Blank may have voted for Hunt, anyway.
Won't stop me doing that, though.
The French version of boomers and gammons is obviously different to over here.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1513556894811664395
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
telegraph
I’m not sure what other options are left
In those elections Blair and Cameron both saw their parties have a 13% lead over the respective Conservative and Labour governments. In 1994 Major's Tories lost over 500 council seats and in 2006 Blair's Labour lost over 300 council seats.
So Starmer needs to have a big NEV lead of close to 10% and see Labour make big gains in councillors from the Tories to show he has a good chance of becoming PM
Stubbornly, the young Yes seem to turn into older Nos as they age, hence the total inability of Yes to gain a sustained poll lead in that time
And it’s been eight years now. So the experiment has been done. Thank God for the moderation and wisdom of Age
However more Fillon voting pensioners from 2017 voted for Macron this time than Pecresse.
The youngest voters in France voted for Melenchon, as they voted for Corbyn here in 2017 and 2019. Middle aged voters voted for Le Pen
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating