Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
Unusually in terms of turnout in round 1. There was higher turnout in 60 to 69 year olds than 70+.
This could be due to still some concerns about covid . The latest Odoxa poll has Macron ahead by only 6 points and shows only a narrow lead amongst Mélenchon transfers which is somewhat different to other polls . Also it looks like the abstentions are made up of more Macron fence sitters as there seems to be a pattern of higher abstention rates in Mélenchons supporters narrows Macrons lead .
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
If Labour have a 10% NEV lead or close and enough Tory MPs fear losing their seats then they will act, especially if local Tory councillors lose their seats in their patch which would bring it home
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
The last time we had local elections at the equivalent stage of this year's local elections before the next general election led to a change in government was in 1994 and 2006.
In those elections Blair and Cameron both saw their parties have a 13% lead over the respective Conservative and Labour governments. In 1994 Major's Tories lost over 500 council seats and in 2006 Blair's Labour lost over 300 council seats.
So Starmer needs to have a big NEV lead of close to 10% and see Labour make big gains in councillors from the Tories to show he has a good chance of becoming PM
A council like Nuneaton & Bedworth will be interesting to watch. Labour almost got wiped out there last time.
Nuneaton is 169th on the Labour target list, if Labour won Nuneaton that would suggest a Starmer majority
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
Interestingly he's not that far behind Reagan, whose popularity dipped into the 30s by the end of his 2nd year.
Thoughts and prayers for the bloody infantry of the Conservative Party on the 5th of May.
They don't have to promote their lying, thieving, nasty party. Just saying.
HYUFD will be along shortly to tell us he was part of a large and enthusiastic party of canvassers last night. Who were impressed with the positive effect of the 'export of refugees' policy.
All these people criticising the Rwanda policy REALLY need to come up with an alternative which is simultaneously humane, practical and affordable, and which prevents 50-100,000 people - or more, and more - crossing the channel in tiny boats to come to the UK and never be sent back. With hundreds drowning. Even thousands
Because that’s what we’re looking at. This year so far is doubling the number last year; which doubled the number the year before. Etc
Two answers that would probably work but are political non-starters.
1. ID cards for people who are meant to be in the UK.
2. Revert to the 2019 arrangements, when the number of small boat migrants was tiny. Maybe we were doing so something right then that we're not doing now.
Russians have been living on a diet of nationalist propaganda for years. The clash of their national myth with reality is full of risks. Whilst the aggression should be defeated, I am not sure that humiliation is going to help.
Then their government should stop saying really stupid shit.
Well that’s that sorted then. Nice one. Will you have a word with Mr Putin or shall I?
The point is that this is deeply ingrained. Imagine the worst Brexit style jingoism amplified times 100, dished out constantly for years. When reality dawns it will be painful.
Yes it will, but there's no point in indulging extreme Russian nationalism either. It has to be broken.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Again: what is your alternative?
Rwanda seems insane, until you consider all the other possible solutions, from Sink all the boats, to Let them all in
Thoughts and prayers for the bloody infantry of the Conservative Party on the 5th of May.
They don't have to promote their lying, thieving, nasty party. Just saying.
HYUFD will be along shortly to tell us he was part of a large and enthusiastic party of canvassers last night. Who were impressed with the positive effect of the 'export of refugees' policy.
All these people criticising the Rwanda policy REALLY need to come up with an alternative which is simultaneously humane, practical and affordable, and which prevents 50-100,000 people - or more, and more - crossing the channel in tiny boats to come to the UK and never be sent back. With hundreds drowning. Even thousands
Because that’s what we’re looking at. This year so far is doubling the number last year; which doubled the number the year before. Etc
Two answers that would probably work but are political non-starters.
1. ID cards for people who are meant to be in the UK.
2. Revert to the 2019 arrangements, when the number of small boat migrants was tiny. Maybe we were doing so something right then that we're not doing now.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
In 1992 Major won Huntingdon with a majority of 36,000 and held it by 18,000 in 1997 even with his majority halved.
If Boris wanted to stay in Parliament if the Tories were heading for opposition he could transfer to a safer seat. If he stayed in Uxbridge it suggests he only wants to stay in Parliament as PM anyway, so if the Tories are re elected he holds it, if not he loses it on national swing
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
If he has a serious chance of losing then he won’t stand. Simple as.
I don’t believe it has ever been tried in British politics before but there is nothing stopping the Tories changing their leader say 6 months before the election and keeping Boris as PM up to polling day. PM announces he won’t contest the next election, there’s a successor as leader of the party in place for the vote, if the Tories win the new leader becomes PM afterwards.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
If Labour have a 10% NEV lead or close and enough Tory MPs fear losing their seats then they will act, especially if local Tory councillors lose their seats in their patch which would bring it home
If sufficient MPs act, then of course it would need Johnson to lose a vote of confidence. Is that likely in your view, even if LP has a 10% NEV lead?
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
If he has a serious chance of losing then he won’t stand. Simple as.
I don’t believe it has ever been tried in British politics before but there is nothing stopping the Tories changing their leader say 6 months before the election and keeping Boris as PM up to polling day. PM announces he won’t contest the next election, there’s a successor as leader of the party in place for the vote, if the Tories win the new leader becomes PM afterwards.
You're right, it has never been tried. The closest parallels would be Grey to Melbourne in 1834 and the Relugas Compact of 1905.
My guess is that the locals will be very regional for the Tories, ranging from horrible in the south, through bad in the north to not bad in the Midlands - very broadly speaking. Whatever happens, Johnson will be going nowhere. He now owns the Conservative party.
That all seems sensible. I think in some recent years early results looked not so bad, narrative set, but the southern results were then awful, as it's where they have more to lose.
Expectations management with locals is always off the chart.
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Again: what is your alternative?
Rwanda seems insane, until you consider all the other possible solutions, from Sink all the boats, to Let them all in
Encourage illegal workers to shop their employers (via the offer of a work-to-citizenship route)
Not really. On economics Macron is closer to the Tories than Le Pen is, hence so many Fillon 2017 voters went for Macron in the first round and hence Pecresse reluctantly endorsed Macron for the runoff. On Putin and Ukraine Macron is also closer to Boris than Le Pen.
Only on Brexit and the culture wars is Le Pen closer to Boris than to Macron
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I am extremely worried by this too, and that the reaction of many in the West will be to shrug and respond that there's not much we can do in response to that.
The only way I can think of to prevent that is for at least one Western nuclear power to formally join the war on Ukraine's side, put soldiers on the front line, and make it 100% clear that any use of tactical nukes would be met with a strategic nuke response.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
The difference is if Biden polls less votes* I don't think he will* than Trump or AN Other GOP in 2024, the GOP wins easily.
With a focus on the east and places like Mauripol I would fear the situation in Ukraine will get worse in the weeks to come, but always great to get good news.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
If Labour have a 10% NEV lead or close and enough Tory MPs fear losing their seats then they will act, especially if local Tory councillors lose their seats in their patch which would bring it home
Yep, this is where it's at. Forget about any other factor - Tory MPs will ditch Johnson if the polls tell them they face electoral carnage if they don't. Otherwise he'll lead into the GE and it'll all come down to THAT poll.
So either way it's down to the public. To us. Have we had enough of Boris Johnson? Is the joke still funny or not? Do we deserve better or do we, in fact, deserve him?
Russia needs humiliation: they need to lose in Ukraine, and be seen to lose
This Manichean view of the conflict needs contextualisation. What would such a loss, that would be impossible to obfuscate, look like? Pushing the Russians back to the 2014 border?
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
In 1992 Major won Huntingdon with a majority of 36,000 and held it by 18,000 in 1997 even with his majority halved.
If Boris wanted to stay in Parliament if the Tories were heading for opposition he could transfer to a safer seat. If he stayed in Uxbridge it suggests he only wants to stay in Parliament as PM anyway, so if the Tories are re elected he holds it, if not he loses it on national swing
But why would he need to go on the chicken run? As he is a bastion of morality according to you won't he win a 36k majority in Uxbridge?
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
If Labour have a 10% NEV lead or close and enough Tory MPs fear losing their seats then they will act, especially if local Tory councillors lose their seats in their patch which would bring it home
If sufficient MPs act, then of course it would need Johnson to lose a vote of confidence. Is that likely in your view, even if LP has a 10% NEV lead?
If Labour has a 10% NEV lead and that starts to be replicated in the polls then yes Boris would likely lose a VONC before the summer recess, probably with someone like Wallace or Javid replacing him
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
But what a crowning comedic moment for the clown in chief. It would be no less than he deserved.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
The difference is if Biden polls less votes* I don't think he will* than Trump or AN Other GOP in 2024, the GOP wins easily.
Well Trump of course lost his re election bid in 2020 too.
Though yes the Democrats would need a new younger centrist candidate like Buttigieg to stand a chance in 2024 at present
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It’s very worrying because as much as we detest Putin if he can’t find a face saving way out then he might lose the plot . It’s a strange situation because without him having nuclear weapons a total humiliation would be welcome now it’s a weird one where the reality is Putin mustn’t be totally humiliated and so a victory in the se of Ukraine we might have to stomach for the “ greater good”.
Russia needs humiliation: they need to lose in Ukraine, and be seen to lose
This Manichean view of the conflict needs contextualisation. What would such a loss, that would be impossible to obfuscate, look like? Pushing the Russians back to the 2014 border?
Crimea and Donbas
I agree. The loss of those would be a systemic shock that would rock Russia and force some introspection. I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim.
I always used to dismiss Navalny's analysis of VVP that he was simply 'mad' as simplistic. Lately, I'm not so sure...
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It’s very worrying because as much as we detest Putin if he can’t find a face saving way out then he might lose the plot . It’s a strange situation because without him having nuclear weapons a total humiliation would be welcome now it’s a weird one where the reality is Putin mustn’t be totally humiliated and so a victory in the se of Ukraine we might have to stomach for the “ greater good”.
While that's true, it should be remembered that lots of people who work for Putin will be young, and will hope to live out their lives, ideally with some form of privilege.
If the choice is between nuclear oblivion, and putting a bullet in their bosses head, they might well go for the second option.
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The "China will just walk in and take over Taiwan in 7 hours" thought line has taken a real hammering this conflict.
Not just the military aspects.
Analysts have been noting how taken aback the CCP powers-that-be have been by the western economic response, especially the voluntary aspects from private companies who have walked from Ru.
Is gaining Taiwan worth the economic collapse that would surely severely jeopardise their regime? Unlike Ru, China is holding to one party rule because it seems to work economically in that millions have become rich and middle class.
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Again: what is your alternative?
Rwanda seems insane, until you consider all the other possible solutions, from Sink all the boats, to Let them all in
Encourage illegal workers to shop their employers (via the offer of a work-to-citizenship route)
My suggestion was they get 50% of an increased fine. There is a substantial fine for employing the undocumented already.
@rcs1000 was suggesting just a work permit for their testimony. Apparently in Switzerland, people were employing the undocumented as domestic servants, when this was bought in. Overnight this stopped.
The advantage of the fine is that, overnight, the employers attitude will go from “ha ha I can treat these people any way I feel like” to “oh shit, they are going to fuck me”
Where's the gratitude from the Ukranians? You go to help them clear out the rat's nest of Nazis for them, and your tanks and tanks spontaneously combust.
Patriotism works well, but even the most patriotic will have doubts. They know politicians lie, but Russian politicians are bad liars.
In times of war, patriotism peaks. I've no doubt Zelensky has told a fib or two, but Lavrov has admitted the Russians are not bothered about Western media attitudes, it's all for home consumption. It's blunt, almost childish, and often contradictory
Politicians lie to the public and to each other, and they all know they're lying. On immigration, the right believe they're all economic migrants rather than asylum seekers. The left believe they're all fleeing (and the press always use that word) war and bigotry. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between, but no one publicly admits it.
Putin's problem has always been there was no plan B. Ukraine has the upper hand in PR for obvious reasons and at least, the anti-Nato and anti-US brigade have been quietened for a time. It makes them silent but sullen. But I doubt if many minds are ever changed.
Russia's PR is not just internal; we do not see much of it as a apparently they're spending much of their effort spreading their lies in the east and Africa, especially with BRICS. They want to build a new world order against America. There is some anecdotal evidence that their efforts to spread their lies in other countries is working.
What they appear to have missed is that they would be a minor player in such a new world order. *If* it happens, it would be dominated by China, India and Brazil (if they take part), with some African countries potentially giving Russia a run for their money in the long term.
Russia is going to have to face the fact it has a diminished place in the world; a position that Putin's little Ukrainian adventure has worsened.
Yes, they obviously want a 'Russia and the world vs the West' narrative, and reality, but they dont seem to understand what that actually means.
Most of the world seems happy to keep out of it, maybe condemn in a vote but perhaps not even that as the whataboutery is effective re the West. But creating that situation doesn't improve their strength any.
I think deep down Putin knows that, hence his escalating things at home to become a bigger Belarus, upping the ridiculous factor.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
I read somewhere lately that the Hartlepool Magic Moobeams factory is going to close in 2024 with no replacement. That's going to be a problem for the new Hyacinth Bucket MP.
Thoughts and prayers for the bloody infantry of the Conservative Party on the 5th of May.
They don't have to promote their lying, thieving, nasty party. Just saying.
HYUFD will be along shortly to tell us he was part of a large and enthusiastic party of canvassers last night. Who were impressed with the positive effect of the 'export of refugees' policy.
All these people criticising the Rwanda policy REALLY need to come up with an alternative which is simultaneously humane, practical and affordable, and which prevents 50-100,000 people - or more, and more - crossing the channel in tiny boats to come to the UK and never be sent back. With hundreds drowning. Even thousands
Because that’s what we’re looking at. This year so far is doubling the number last year; which doubled the number the year before. Etc
Two answers that would probably work but are political non-starters.
1. ID cards for people who are meant to be in the UK.
2. Revert to the 2019 arrangements, when the number of small boat migrants was tiny. Maybe we were doing so something right then that we're not doing now.
In fact, it's been a problem since the time of the Beaker People...
Sure, but a much smaller problem than now.
Some of that is about engineering- tiny boats that are more able to make the crossing. But some of the problem is the UK wanting to control its borders when it really doesn't have the capability.
I'm reminded of the way that a teacher floundering with a bad class can be tempted to make more and more lurid threats to try to regain control. If those threats can't quickly be carried out, the kids very quickly clock that; they know that the School Gulag has three chairs in it. And that makes matters worse.
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
I hope you are too; I console myself with the thought that you usually are. ;-)
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Johnson feels a bit like Brown now? Some people that could take over but they seem unlikely to act so Johnson leads them into the next election by default
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It’s very worrying because as much as we detest Putin if he can’t find a face saving way out then he might lose the plot . It’s a strange situation because without him having nuclear weapons a total humiliation would be welcome now it’s a weird one where the reality is Putin mustn’t be totally humiliated and so a victory in the se of Ukraine we might have to stomach for the “ greater good”.
While that's true, it should be remembered that lots of people who work for Putin will be young, and will hope to live out their lives, ideally with some form of privilege.
If the choice is between nuclear oblivion, and putting a bullet in their bosses head, they might well go for the second option.
Not sure they’d ever get close enough to do the world a favour .
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
The difference is if Biden polls less votes* I don't think he will* than Trump or AN Other GOP in 2024, the GOP wins easily.
The Telegraph piece is based on a new Quinnipiac poll
It strikes me that the Rwandan deal could backfire on the government. It seems pretty half-baked, and is reminiscent of a similar 'oven-ready' deal a couple of years back, also announced for political expediency. It will only succeed if it reduces the number of cross-channel refugees significantly, and that depends on effective implementation - highly doubtful via the Home Office.
It seems to be assumed that this red meat policy was designed to distract from partygate. I suspect that the timing of the announcement was more to do with a) distracting from the large number of migrant crossings we'll get this week now the weather has turned, and b) distracting from the significant travel problems expected over this weekend.
I haven't commented on the substance of the Rwandan policy itself, because I find every single aspect of it beyond the pale. Very little makes me angry - this did.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Serious cuts for regional economic development in the north, with the Shared Prosperity Fund failing to match previous funds as promised 📉
Some years ago, there was an elderly lady who lived in the Park Lane area, who took a very miniature horse for walks in Hyde Park. It was literally 2 foot tall. Looked exactly like a horse - not a miniature pony or something.
I saw it fairly close up - she’d ever had miniature horse tac made up, so it was on a lead rein.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
telegraph
Biden's popularity has not really moved much at all since mid-January according to 538. No sign of a recent dip (or uplift).
Biden's 41.5% approval is still slightly higher than the 40.6% Trump was on at this stage on that chart. Even though Biden is more unpopular than every other US President at this stage of their Presidency since 1945
The difference is if Biden polls less votes* I don't think he will* than Trump or AN Other GOP in 2024, the GOP wins easily.
The Telegraph piece is based on a new Quinnipiac poll
It's not that new - 538 lists five more recent polls, all with approval in the low 40s.
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
Seems probable to me the east and south could still fall. Still worried at the capability of Ukraine to go on the offensive especially if Russia takes a scorched earth approach to defense. But things are at least more positive than they were.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
If he can't turn this around in the next year then he has to be taken on in a primary and not made automatically the candidate. I fear though that only his wife has the power to persuade him he has done his job - got Trump out and now can retire gracefully and do as he said: be a bridge to a new generation.
Problem is there is no obvious replacement candidate except possibly Mayor Pete, but he is just not popular enough with Dem primary voters it seems.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Serious cuts for regional economic development in the north, with the Shared Prosperity Fund failing to match previous funds as promised 📉
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Why is that relevant?
Because even I know that, as of yesterday morning, because it seems like important background to what we propose to do, and I am not the government minister responsible for the proposal. Like Truss not bothering to have a quick look at Ukraine on google maps before going to Moscow
This is what my daughter and I have both been suffering from for the last 6 months or so. My daughter is now just about back to normal but for me it is still very severe. Red wine, coffee, anything with mint. All are absolutely foul and at there is a constant taste of rancid butter 24/7.
judging by my daughters progress I have another 2 or so months to go. Its bloody depressing sometimes especially when I am such a foodie.
Thoughts and prayers for the bloody infantry of the Conservative Party on the 5th of May.
They don't have to promote their lying, thieving, nasty party. Just saying.
But most of them are well known and respected in their local communities. Done good works for years. Their footsoldiers are happy to go out and leaflet and door-knock for them.
Then - vaporised in a pre-emptive strike by the voters.
Been involved in campaigns that have been won and lost on that basis, and yes- it sucks.
I don't know what the answer is; if moderates leave the party when it goes mad (see Corbyn Labour, or Johnson Conservatives), it just concentrates the insanity. There comes a point where one has no choice, natch, but it's incredibly hard for an elected representative to do that.
Besides, why should we hold a candidate for Yourtown Borough Council accountable for Johnson being a nasty piece of work who surrounds himself with nasty pieces of work? (Soon to be ex-)Councillor Blank may have voted for Hunt, anyway.
Won't stop me doing that, though.
Good cllrs lose and bad candidates win all the time. Small electorates, low turnouts and a lot of people voting on grounds of national policy due to lack of salient local issues makes that inevitable.
In fairness it really does make little difference who runs things locally a kit if the time. National rules and financial strictures give little rion for manuevere.
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It is becoming 1905.
But this time, as you say, the regime has nukes.
I believe the target endgame has to be the de-nuclearisation of Russia.
No idea how that can be achieved. Presumably it would require a complete collapse of the Russian state and an agreement between China and the US, potentially with the US agreeing to drastically reduce its number of warheads.
There is something too about how can we protect from a future rogue madman dictator in charge of a nuclear armed country (including potentially the US or China)?
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Serious cuts for regional economic development in the north, with the Shared Prosperity Fund failing to match previous funds as promised 📉
Hopefully that means he will start scoring even more runs.
Would be funny if they appointed Stuart Broad captain in his place...
They could do worse than Broad. Probably will!
Well, the problem they have is the lack of alternatives. Burns is unlikely to play for England again, as is Buttler. Lees has played three tests without convincing anyone save Jonathan Agnew, who is an idiot, and when he captained the England lions failed twice with the bat. Lawrence and Crawley are both too young. Foakes might be a possible but there are several other wicketkeepers eyeing up the berth. No spinner is guaranteed a game.
That leaves Root (resigned) Stokes (very reluctant) Bairstow (no captaincy experience) and Broad as guaranteed starters (yes, he is, even the ECB realise they made a mistake there) who might just be in the frame.
Actually, I think Broad would be a good choice as he would kick arse, which is what they need, plus he would only be there a short time and succession planning could be part of his brief.
But yes you're right they probably will do worse. My personal fear is they will recall Buttler and give him the captaincy.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
Didn't Johnson lose one of his Oxford student contest. And the first time he stood for Parliament, in N Wales.
It strikes me that the Rwandan deal could backfire on the government. It seems pretty half-baked, and is reminiscent of a similar 'oven-ready' deal a couple of years back, also announced for political expediency. It will only succeed if it reduces the number of cross-channel refugees significantly, and that depends on effective implementation - highly doubtful via the Home Office.
It seems to be assumed that this red meat policy was designed to distract from partygate. I suspect that the timing of the announcement was more to do with a) distracting from the large number of migrant crossings we'll get this week now the weather has turned, and b) distracting from the significant travel problems expected over this weekend.
I haven't commented on the substance of the Rwandan policy itself, because I find every single aspect of it beyond the pale. Very little makes me angry - this did.
You are missing the point. They have no intention of the policy working in terms of "solving" migrant crossings. Migrant crossings win Boris votes, why would they want to stop it happening? Far better to let it continue, but have their doomed efforts blocked by the system, courts and liberals, whilst getting the PR and culture war headlines they need.
Some years ago, there was an elderly lady who lived in the Park Lane area, who took a very miniature horse for walks in Hyde Park. It was literally 2 foot tall. Looked exactly like a horse - not a miniature pony or something.
I saw it fairly close up - she’d ever had miniature horse tac made up, so it was on a lead rein.
There used to be a lady who would walk her pet ocelot in Hyde Park. Probably illegal nowadays because of the rules on keeping exotic pets, but I'm told it looked happy enough.
This is what my daughter and I have both been suffering from for the last 6 months or so. My daughter is now just about back to normal but for me it is still very severe. Red wine, coffee, anything with mint. All are absolutely foul and at there is a constant taste of rancid butter 24/7.
judging by my daughters progress I have another 2 or so months to go. Its bloody depressing sometimes especially when I am such a foodie.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Serious cuts for regional economic development in the north, with the Shared Prosperity Fund failing to match previous funds as promised 📉
"More Labour Remoaner Woke partisan rubbish". Yebbut its the Northern Powerhouse Partnership. The Tories' client organisation for the promotion of Moon on Stick distribution to pliant voters.
Really is a glorious day in Boris Johnson's New Party. Lies are Truth. Less is More. Theft is Cheered.
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
It's another reason for Boris to depart next year. Losing an 80 seat majority to dreadfully dreary Starmer would be bad enough. Losing his seat too, in a Portillo moment of national rejoicing, would haunt him for decades....
No British Prime Minister has ever lost his seat at a General Election. Not one. The closest anyone has come are Balfour in 1906 and Macdonald in 1935, who had both been PM a few months before (one for Balfour, six for MacDonald).
For Johnson to lose his seat a la John Howard would be an epochal humiliation that would far dwarf any Portillo moment.
That is more a factor of how safe their seat is. Major's Huntingdon had a massive majority in 1992 for example but he won a smaller majority than Boris did in 2019 but with Boris' Uxbridge seat having a smaller majority.
As for John Howard he also won 4 general elections before he lost his seat and the election in 2007 and is still the second longest serving Australian PM since WW2
I didn't know Major stood in Huntingdon in 2019.
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
Didn't Johnson lose one of his Oxford student contest. And the first time he stood for Parliament, in N Wales.
On the subject of the Gotchva... It is interesting that in the most photographed and videoed war in history we don't have a single image of it in its damaged state. Did it all happen at night?
This is not conspiracy theory bullshit. I don't believe its secretly docked at Woolwich Ferry Terminal being controlled by Walt Disney's embalmed head.
I meant for Le Pen! However, the fact she outscored Macron by such substantial margins in three of the four other age groups bodes ill for future political developments in France.
I think that French politics is starting to blur hard left and hard right.
When you consider that … third ways…. have always presented themselves as a synthesis of the others, this makes some sense.
The ultra right is for regressive, mercantilist economics, for example. This is from the days when free markets were a liberal idea. But the idea of state control of prices, wages, conditions etc seems very left wing to some.
I do wonder how left wing the 20% who went hard left really were - how many were seeking the same kind of thing - “forward to the past” complete with Guild Socialism?
This is what my daughter and I have both been suffering from for the last 6 months or so. My daughter is now just about back to normal but for me it is still very severe. Red wine, coffee, anything with mint. All are absolutely foul and at there is a constant taste of rancid butter 24/7.
judging by my daughters progress I have another 2 or so months to go. Its bloody depressing sometimes especially when I am such a foodie.
Sorry to hear that Richard - it does sound pretty awful. Hope things improve for you soon.
It is bearable and in the grand scheme of things not really a tragedy. I feel more sorry for my daughter than me. I used to smoke and also have become accustomed over the years to strong tasting foods - anchovies, olives, strong cheese etc, so it is just a case of getting you head around it. More difficult for my daughter although as I say thankfully she is now mostly over it.
The wine and coffee is a real killer for me though. That was half my diet before this
An “emergency decision” to fund the £400,000 repair of a private road at risk of slipping into a beck was made behind closed doors at City of York Council.
Springfield Close, in the ward of Heworth Without, is a private, unadopted street accessible to the public and the collapse of its supporting wall could lead to flooding downstream, according to City of York Council.
The council’s policy is not to maintain private roads. But a senior council officer last week gave the go-ahead for the authority to pay for its repair.
Corporate director of place, Neil Ferris, said the council did not want residents living on private roads elsewhere in the city to think they could rely on similar treatment.
But York Labour have criticised the move and implied the decision was a “special case” because it is in ruling councillor Nigel Ayre’s ward.
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Again: what is your alternative?
Rwanda seems insane, until you consider all the other possible solutions, from Sink all the boats, to Let them all in
It is admittedly easier to talk against an idea rather than come up with one yourself. But neither should you do something which is a bad idea simply because people struggle to come up with an alternative.
This idea looks like a practical mess, particularly with our record, and likely to get mired in legal issues (which may be part of the point, culture war etc) and speaking personally just feels wrong.
In the situation muddling along and trying genetically 'more' of what we do now may be unsatisfactory but better than going down this path.
Hopefully that means he will start scoring even more runs.
Would be funny if they appointed Stuart Broad captain in his place...
They could do worse than Broad. Probably will!
Well, the problem they have is the lack of alternatives. Burns is unlikely to play for England again, as is Buttler. Lees has played three tests without convincing anyone save Jonathan Agnew, who is an idiot, and when he captained the England lions failed twice with the bat. Lawrence and Crawley are both too young. Foakes might be a possible but there are several other wicketkeepers eyeing up the berth. No spinner is guaranteed a game.
That leaves Root (resigned) Stokes (very reluctant) Bairstow (no captaincy experience) and Broad as guaranteed starters (yes, he is, even the ECB realise they made a mistake there) who might just be in the frame.
Actually, I think Broad would be a good choice as he would kick arse, which is what they need, plus he would only be there a short time and succession planning could be part of his brief.
But yes you're right they probably will do worse. My personal fear is they will recall Buttler and give him the captaincy.
Stokes would be fine. Bairstow doesnt make much sense to me.
Time to find some more Aussies or Saffers with dual nationality.....
"Tories set to lose 800 council seats – and Sir Keir Starmer on course to be PM in 2024 Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast five per cent swing from Tories to Labour at local elections"
Isn't there a chance that the PM could lose his seat in an GE on figures like that? Have there been any whispers about him moving to a safer one?
I would be surprised if Boris fights the next GE. If the May locals are bad then the party will act.
How would that be mobilised? Needs enough individual MPs to act, potentially affecting their careers, and they have just seen Bridgen and others have the awkwardness of withdrawing their letters.
If Labour have a 10% NEV lead or close and enough Tory MPs fear losing their seats then they will act, especially if local Tory councillors lose their seats in their patch which would bring it home
If sufficient MPs act, then of course it would need Johnson to lose a vote of confidence. Is that likely in your view, even if LP has a 10% NEV lead?
If Labour has a 10% NEV lead and that starts to be replicated in the polls then yes Boris would likely lose a VONC before the summer recess, probably with someone like Wallace or Javid replacing him
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
Seems probable to me the east and south could still fall. Still worried at the capability of Ukraine to go on the offensive especially if Russia takes a scorched earth approach to defense. But things are at least more positive than they were.
What would be the economic effect of Ukraine losing the Donbass area?
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
The good news is I'm pretty sure you are wrong about the nuclear point. The likely short term outcome imo is an unstable impasse with Putin snatching victory from the jaws of defeat via the simple method of announcing he has won. Mother Russia has saved the bit of Ukraine it cares the most about from the Nazis and brought it home. After that, I really don't know. Hard to be optimistic. No nuclear escalation though. And no Russia/NATO war.
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The "China will just walk in and take over Taiwan in 7 hours" thought line has taken a real hammering this conflict.
Not just the military aspects.
Analysts have been noting how taken aback the CCP powers-that-be have been by the western economic response, especially the voluntary aspects from private companies who have walked from Ru.
Is gaining Taiwan worth the economic collapse that would surely severely jeopardise their regime? Unlike Ru, China is holding to one party rule because it seems to work economically in that millions have become rich and middle class.
Yes, that's right. I can't see the slightest net benefit for China in invading Taiwan and I don't think they've seriously contemplated it for a long time. I hesitate to be dogmatic about how bonkers it would be as I though Putin was just willy-waving and he wan't, but has there actually been any Chinese declaration of intent to take over ("liberate") Taiwan in the last 20 years?
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It is becoming 1905.
But this time, as you say, the regime has nukes.
I believe the target endgame has to be the de-nuclearisation of Russia.
No idea how that can be achieved. Presumably it would require a complete collapse of the Russian state and an agreement between China and the US, potentially with the US agreeing to drastically reduce its number of warheads.
There is something too about how can we protect from a future rogue madman dictator in charge of a nuclear armed country (including potentially the US or China)?
Collapse of the Soviet Union didn't lead to getting rid of nukes, though there were reductions, nor would collapse of Russia. Not sure the USA would be interested in reducing as a quid pro quo.
Hopefully that means he will start scoring even more runs.
Would be funny if they appointed Stuart Broad captain in his place...
They could do worse than Broad. Probably will!
Well, the problem they have is the lack of alternatives. Burns is unlikely to play for England again, as is Buttler. Lees has played three tests without convincing anyone save Jonathan Agnew, who is an idiot, and when he captained the England lions failed twice with the bat. Lawrence and Crawley are both too young. Foakes might be a possible but there are several other wicketkeepers eyeing up the berth. No spinner is guaranteed a game.
That leaves Root (resigned) Stokes (very reluctant) Bairstow (no captaincy experience) and Broad as guaranteed starters (yes, he is, even the ECB realise they made a mistake there) who might just be in the frame.
Actually, I think Broad would be a good choice as he would kick arse, which is what they need, plus he would only be there a short time and succession planning could be part of his brief.
But yes you're right they probably will do worse. My personal fear is they will recall Buttler and give him the captaincy.
Stokes would be fine. Bairstow doesnt make much sense to me.
Time to find some more Aussies or Saffers with dual nationality.....
Stokes would be fine *if he could cope*.
The other option, which would be truly left field, would be to recall James Vince, but surely even England aren't stupid enough to do that.
It's very reassuring that Tom Pursglove, the minister for tackling illegal immigration, had to admit on BBC Breakfast that he had no idea what the population of Rwanda is, or the average age of its citizens, as he extolled the virtues of sending asylum seekers there from the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
Why is that relevant?
Because even I know that, as of yesterday morning, because it seems like important background to what we propose to do, and I am not the government minister responsible for the proposal. Like Truss not bothering to have a quick look at Ukraine on google maps before going to Moscow
Some spad should have a factsheet for all ministers going on tv.
Another factory that could hit the Tories hard is their unveiling of the amazing direct investment to replace the money lost when we left the EU. As an example Teesside has seen a magnificent rise from £73m before to an unbelievable £46m. Cornwall has lost tens of millions.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Serious cuts for regional economic development in the north, with the Shared Prosperity Fund failing to match previous funds as promised 📉
This is a difficult one for Labour so as not to look like they’re overly criticizing Brexit but just to highlight no 10s broken promises .
Its not that difficult. Most people believed Brexit would make them worse off. The Tories promised they would be and that they would match direct EU funding. They lied. "Where is our money?" should do it.
Though there are some very stupid supporters of the New Party on Teesside listing all kinds of things to try and tot up to the promised money. Most of which would have happened anyway (road improvements on a private maintenance road) and insisting Labour are liars.
Like I said, people can usually believe their own senses. "You've never had it so good from Conservative New party hacks whilst the place crumbles will not go down well.
Come & See: Russian 1985 film, subtitled, ww2 in Byelorussia through eyes of teenage boy
My parents were pretty much exactly of an age with the hero. Their main takeaway from those years in England is, an advanced knowledge of where you can coast in a car from to where on the roads around their childhood homes, because petrol was rationed. Russian equivalent a bit different, tho petrol also comes into it.
Try to imagine an equivalent UK or Hollywood film being made in 1985.
Joe Biden's popularity plummeted to the joint lowest level of his presidency as a poll showed only 33 per cent of Americans approve of his job performance.
If he can't turn this around in the next year then he has to be taken on in a primary and not made automatically the candidate. I fear though that only his wife has the power to persuade him he has done his job - got Trump out and now can retire gracefully and do as he said: be a bridge to a new generation.
Problem is there is no obvious replacement candidate except possibly Mayor Pete, but he is just not popular enough with Dem primary voters it seems.
There are quite a few other strong candidates: Gretchen Whitmer, Jared Polis, Amy KLOBUCHAR.
But the problem is that Kamala is kind of next-in-line, and it's hard to get someone who's next-in-line out of the way, especially if they're from a minority group that makes it look disrespectful to shove them out of the way. Obama managed to do this with Hillary Clinton but he was hugely talented, and also a from makes-history-if-he-wins minority group, and Kamala is probably somewhat less terrible at politics than Hillary.
As with Obama it's impossible to know if anyone's candidacy is really going to catch fire until closer to the event.
The logic there is almost too fncked up to comprehend, but it does strongly suggest that the Russian public have no idea of the scale of their losses to date if this incident is such a trigger. The desperate anger is palpable.
There was something familiar in the combination of rage, absurd statements of brotherhood and more rage from the Russian point of view on this.
Then I remember - long time ago, I read some yellow press stuff from 1857 in the U.K.
There was a paper from Dundee that was particularly foaming, as I recall. The writer must have been running his safety valves hard……
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
I fear it is increasingly likely that Russia, in its expanding humiliation, will resort to tactical nukes
I’m not sure what other options are left
I share your fear but what's to stop Putin continuing to lay waste to Ukraine infrastructure with conventional weapons?
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
I’m genuinely unsure Russia has the military capacity to subdue even eastern Ukraine. It has lost ~20,000 soldiers, vast armies of tanks, and now its finest warship
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
It is becoming 1905.
But this time, as you say, the regime has nukes.
I believe the target endgame has to be the de-nuclearisation of Russia.
No idea how that can be achieved. Presumably it would require a complete collapse of the Russian state and an agreement between China and the US, potentially with the US agreeing to drastically reduce its number of warheads.
There is something too about how can we protect from a future rogue madman dictator in charge of a nuclear armed country (including potentially the US or China)?
[1.] Collapse of the Soviet Union didn't lead to getting rid of nukes, though there were reductions, nor would collapse of Russia. [2.] Not sure the USA would be interested in reducing as a quid pro quo.
1. It didn't... but it could have. The collapse of Germany after WW1 didn't lead to a de-militarisation; the lessons were learnt after WW2. 2. I can't see why not - the costs of maintaining the current numbers must be very high.
This is what my daughter and I have both been suffering from for the last 6 months or so. My daughter is now just about back to normal but for me it is still very severe. Red wine, coffee, anything with mint. All are absolutely foul and at there is a constant taste of rancid butter 24/7.
judging by my daughters progress I have another 2 or so months to go. Its bloody depressing sometimes especially when I am such a foodie.
Sorry to hear that Richard - it does sound pretty awful. Hope things improve for you soon.
It is bearable and in the grand scheme of things not really a tragedy. I feel more sorry for my daughter than me. I used to smoke and also have become accustomed over the years to strong tasting foods - anchovies, olives, strong cheese etc, so it is just a case of getting you head around it. More difficult for my daughter although as I say thankfully she is now mostly over it.
The wine and coffee is a real killer for me though. That was half my diet before this
Very unpleasant. All the best. As you say, in the grand scheme of things, but it's your life and, if my experience of such things is anything go by, keeps nagging at one. Which detracts from natural joie de vivre!
As I say, all the best and I hope the situation resolves soon.
Sister-in-law works for Morrisons. Had covid last week. Still testing positive but she's been told she has to go back to work today, or not get paid.
So if you want to catch covid - head for Morrisons Wincanton.
Hang on. PB virologists insist its just the common cold and that there is no need for people who are no longer ill to isolate.
In the real world this is pretty stupid from Mozzas. Better to have one person off sick than 20. So they clearly assume their workforce are liars who are faking the LFT tests. Are they even paying sick pay? Bet its SSP only.
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The "China will just walk in and take over Taiwan in 7 hours" thought line has taken a real hammering this conflict.
Not just the military aspects.
Analysts have been noting how taken aback the CCP powers-that-be have been by the western economic response, especially the voluntary aspects from private companies who have walked from Ru.
Is gaining Taiwan worth the economic collapse that would surely severely jeopardise their regime? Unlike Ru, China is holding to one party rule because it seems to work economically in that millions have become rich and middle class.
Yes, that's right. I can't see the slightest net benefit for China in invading Taiwan and I don't think they've seriously contemplated it for a long time. I hesitate to be dogmatic about how bonkers it would be as I though Putin was just willy-waving and he wan't, but has there actually been any Chinese declaration of intent to take over ("liberate") Taiwan in the last 20 years?
The rhetoric has certainly increased as China flexes its muscles, but the fear seems less imminent than that the longer Emperor Xi is in power the more divorced from reality he will get, and then all bets are off especially if they experiences any economic problems.
BTW, I still think it's easily possible that Russia gets a tactical victory and takes over the eastern half of Ukraine, or even the entirety. It is getting less likely as time goes on, but is possible.
But IMO that would only be a tactical, not a strategic victory, as it will do immense damage to the Russia militarily, politically and economically.
Seems probable to me the east and south could still fall. Still worried at the capability of Ukraine to go on the offensive especially if Russia takes a scorched earth approach to defense. But things are at least more positive than they were.
What would be the economic effect of Ukraine losing the Donbass area?
No idea. It had already lost the largest cities of those areas 8 years ago, so presumably less effect now than then even if more lost.
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The "China will just walk in and take over Taiwan in 7 hours" thought line has taken a real hammering this conflict.
Not to me it hasn't. It is unlikely to me that two superpowers should both have such a hilariously useless collection of dad's Army junk in their armouries, and anyway what everybody from Xi down to the QM will have been doing this past month will be a down-to-the-last-round stocktake and audit just to be sure. And it's not like they lack the resources to make up any deficiencies.
Russia needs humiliation: they need to lose in Ukraine, and be seen to lose
This Manichean view of the conflict needs contextualisation. What would such a loss, that would be impossible to obfuscate, look like? Pushing the Russians back to the 2014 border?
Crimea and Donbas
I agree. The loss of those would be a systemic shock that would rock Russia and force some introspection. I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim.
I always used to dismiss Navalny's analysis of VVP that he was simply 'mad' as simplistic. Lately, I'm not so sure...
I think age related plot loss.
There is a phenomenon where elderly peoples, while not actually senile, turn their opinions into a rigid caricature of their lifelong beliefs.
A number of people who’ve actually met Putin have commented he is very different from the Putin of a decade ago.
Russia needs humiliation: they need to lose in Ukraine, and be seen to lose
This Manichean view of the conflict needs contextualisation. What would such a loss, that would be impossible to obfuscate, look like? Pushing the Russians back to the 2014 border?
Crimea and Donbas
I agree. The loss of those would be a systemic shock that would rock Russia and force some introspection. I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim.
I always used to dismiss Navalny's analysis of VVP that he was simply 'mad' as simplistic. Lately, I'm not so sure...
I doubt the Ukrainians would go beyond the 2014 borders. Taking the cities in Donbass would likely be very costly and depressingly Putin may have been quite effective in his ethnic cleansing there. If reports of disgruntled conscripts are true those warlord states could collapse from within.
Comments
Also, wouldn't chemical weapons an option for him, less likely to provoke a NATO reaction, if he wants to escalate?
This could be due to still some concerns about covid . The latest Odoxa poll has Macron ahead by only 6 points and shows only a narrow lead amongst Mélenchon transfers which is somewhat different to other polls . Also it looks like the abstentions are made up of more Macron fence sitters as there seems to be a pattern of higher abstention rates in Mélenchons supporters narrows Macrons lead .
https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1514860762321334276
To an extent you're right about the safeness of the seats, and that's partly because promising politicians in marginal seats are usually transferred to safer ones so they don't get booted from the House of Commons, which until Johnson made his name as London mayor was the only way of gaining executive power. And, of course, around half of British Prime Ministers have been peers, which skews the figures.
But it would still be a calamitous result for Johnson, especially as he claims to be the man who wins every vote he contests.
1. ID cards for people who are meant to be in the UK.
2. Revert to the 2019 arrangements, when the number of small boat migrants was tiny. Maybe we were doing so something right then that we're not doing now.
The Tories are of course doing their best to talk up the amazing funds - FORTY SIX MILLION? WOW!. But even stupid voters can add. And can see that instead of levelling up things are getting worse.
Ultimately when you promise the moon on a stick there is a moment where delivery is required.
Rwanda seems insane, until you consider all the other possible solutions, from Sink all the boats, to Let them all in
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/23/channel-crossings-uk-and-france-to-meet-after-dozens-intercepted
In fact, it's been a problem since the time of the Beaker People...
If Boris wanted to stay in Parliament if the Tories were heading for opposition he could transfer to a safer seat. If he stayed in Uxbridge it suggests he only wants to stay in Parliament as PM anyway, so if the Tories are re elected he holds it, if not he loses it on national swing
I don’t believe it has ever been tried in British politics before but there is nothing stopping the Tories changing their leader say 6 months before the election and keeping Boris as PM up to polling day. PM announces he won’t contest the next election, there’s a successor as leader of the party in place for the vote, if the Tories win the new leader becomes PM afterwards.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/01/15/biden-begins-presidency-with-positive-ratings-trump-departs-with-lowest-ever-job-mark/
Hopefully that means he will start scoring even more runs.
Would be funny if they appointed Stuart Broad captain in his place...
Expectations management with locals is always off the chart.
Only on Brexit and the culture wars is Le Pen closer to Boris than to Macron
Ukraine has turned out to be very different to Syria or Chechnya. It is a catastrophe. And Ukraine is being constantly resupplied with superior western weapons
Putin is facing humiliation near the end of his life. An old man in a hurry. I can see him reaching for the red button. Chemical weapons won’t have the dramatic effect he requires. Hope I’m wrong
The only way I can think of to prevent that is for at least one Western nuclear power to formally join the war on Ukraine's side, put soldiers on the front line, and make it 100% clear that any use of tactical nukes would be met with a strategic nuke response.
So either way it's down to the public. To us. Have we had enough of Boris Johnson? Is the joke still funny or not? Do we deserve better or do we, in fact, deserve him?
Though yes the Democrats would need a new younger centrist candidate like Buttigieg to stand a chance in 2024 at present
I always used to dismiss Navalny's analysis of VVP that he was simply 'mad' as simplistic. Lately, I'm not so sure...
https://mobile.twitter.com/catalishus2/status/1514716958100500493
If the choice is between nuclear oblivion, and putting a bullet in their bosses head, they might well go for the second option.
Analysts have been noting how taken aback the CCP powers-that-be have been by the western economic response, especially the voluntary aspects from private companies who have walked from Ru.
Is gaining Taiwan worth the economic collapse that would surely severely jeopardise their regime? Unlike Ru, China is holding to one party rule because it seems to work economically in that millions have become rich and middle class.
My suggestion was they get 50% of an increased fine. There is a substantial fine for employing the undocumented already.
@rcs1000 was suggesting just a work permit for their testimony. Apparently in Switzerland, people were employing the undocumented as domestic servants, when this was bought in. Overnight this stopped.
The advantage of the fine is that, overnight, the employers attitude will go from “ha ha I can treat these people any way I feel like” to “oh shit, they are going to fuck me”
Most of the world seems happy to keep out of it, maybe condemn in a vote but perhaps not even that as the whataboutery is effective re the West. But creating that situation doesn't improve their strength any.
I think deep down Putin knows that, hence his escalating things at home to become a bigger Belarus, upping the ridiculous factor.
Some of that is about engineering- tiny boats that are more able to make the crossing. But some of the problem is the UK wanting to control its borders when it really doesn't have the capability.
I'm reminded of the way that a teacher floundering with a bad class can be tempted to make more and more lurid threats to try to regain control. If those threats can't quickly be carried out, the kids very quickly clock that; they know that the School Gulag has three chairs in it. And that makes matters worse.
But this time, as you say, the regime has nukes.
It seems to be assumed that this red meat policy was designed to distract from partygate. I suspect that the timing of the announcement was more to do with a) distracting from the large number of migrant crossings we'll get this week now the weather has turned, and b) distracting from the significant travel problems expected over this weekend.
I haven't commented on the substance of the Rwandan policy itself, because I find every single aspect of it beyond the pale. Very little makes me angry - this did.
Liverpool City Region -34%
Tees Valley -37%
Greater Manchester -35%
Cheshire & Warrington -35%
Cumbria -36%
Lancashire -35%
North East -37%
https://mobile.twitter.com/NP_Partnership/status/1514565140678692866
I saw it fairly close up - she’d ever had miniature horse tac made up, so it was on a lead rein.
What's the definition of an outlier again?
Problem is there is no obvious replacement candidate except possibly Mayor Pete, but he is just not popular enough with Dem primary voters it seems.
This is what my daughter and I have both been suffering from for the last 6 months or so. My daughter is now just about back to normal but for me it is still very severe. Red wine, coffee, anything with mint. All are absolutely foul and at there is a constant taste of rancid butter 24/7.
judging by my daughters progress I have another 2 or so months to go. Its bloody depressing sometimes especially when I am such a foodie.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/7cvjsXgx1NMzRm98T3yRnV/i-smell-funny-how-covid-still-affects-my-sense-of-smell
In fairness it really does make little difference who runs things locally a kit if the time. National rules and financial strictures give little rion for manuevere.
No idea how that can be achieved. Presumably it would require a complete collapse of the Russian state and an agreement between China and the US, potentially with the US agreeing to drastically reduce its number of warheads.
There is something too about how can we protect from a future rogue madman dictator in charge of a nuclear armed country (including potentially the US or China)?
That leaves Root (resigned) Stokes (very reluctant) Bairstow (no captaincy experience) and Broad as guaranteed starters (yes, he is, even the ECB realise they made a mistake there) who might just be in the frame.
Actually, I think Broad would be a good choice as he would kick arse, which is what they need, plus he would only be there a short time and succession planning could be part of his brief.
But yes you're right they probably will do worse. My personal fear is they will recall Buttler and give him the captaincy.
Really is a glorious day in Boris Johnson's New Party. Lies are Truth. Less is More. Theft is Cheered.
This is not conspiracy theory bullshit. I don't believe its secretly docked at Woolwich Ferry Terminal being controlled by Walt Disney's embalmed head.
When you consider that … third ways…. have always presented themselves as a synthesis of the others, this makes some sense.
The ultra right is for regressive, mercantilist economics, for example. This is from the days when free markets were a liberal idea. But the idea of state control of prices, wages, conditions etc seems very left wing to some.
I do wonder how left wing the 20% who went hard left really were - how many were seeking the same kind of thing - “forward to the past” complete with Guild Socialism?
The wine and coffee is a real killer for me though. That was half my diet before this
Sister-in-law works for Morrisons. Had covid last week. Still testing positive but she's been told she has to go back to work today, or not get paid.
So if you want to catch covid - head for Morrisons Wincanton.
An “emergency decision” to fund the £400,000 repair of a private road at risk of slipping into a beck was made behind closed doors at City of York Council.
Springfield Close, in the ward of Heworth Without, is a private, unadopted street accessible to the public and the collapse of its supporting wall could lead to flooding downstream, according to City of York Council.
The council’s policy is not to maintain private roads. But a senior council officer last week gave the go-ahead for the authority to pay for its repair.
Corporate director of place, Neil Ferris, said the council did not want residents living on private roads elsewhere in the city to think they could rely on similar treatment.
But York Labour have criticised the move and implied the decision was a “special case” because it is in ruling councillor Nigel Ayre’s ward.
https://yorkmix.com/council-pays-out-400k-to-repair-a-private-york-road-even-though-it-goes-against-city-policy/
This idea looks like a practical mess, particularly with our record, and likely to get mired in legal issues (which may be part of the point, culture war etc) and speaking personally just feels wrong.
In the situation muddling along and trying genetically 'more' of what we do now may be unsatisfactory but better than going down this path.
Time to find some more Aussies or Saffers with dual nationality.....
The other option, which would be truly left field, would be to recall James Vince, but surely even England aren't stupid enough to do that.
Though there are some very stupid supporters of the New Party on Teesside listing all kinds of things to try and tot up to the promised money. Most of which would have happened anyway (road improvements on a private maintenance road) and insisting Labour are liars.
Like I said, people can usually believe their own senses. "You've never had it so good from
ConservativeNew party hacks whilst the place crumbles will not go down well.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJYOg4ORc1w
Come & See: Russian 1985 film, subtitled, ww2 in Byelorussia through eyes of teenage boy
My parents were pretty much exactly of an age with the hero. Their main takeaway from those years in England is, an advanced knowledge of where you can coast in a car from to where on the roads around their childhood homes, because petrol was rationed. Russian equivalent a bit different, tho petrol also comes into it.
Try to imagine an equivalent UK or Hollywood film being made in 1985.
But the problem is that Kamala is kind of next-in-line, and it's hard to get someone who's next-in-line out of the way, especially if they're from a minority group that makes it look disrespectful to shove them out of the way. Obama managed to do this with Hillary Clinton but he was hugely talented, and also a from makes-history-if-he-wins minority group, and Kamala is probably somewhat less terrible at politics than Hillary.
As with Obama it's impossible to know if anyone's candidacy is really going to catch fire until closer to the event.
Then I remember - long time ago, I read some yellow press stuff from 1857 in the U.K.
There was a paper from Dundee that was particularly foaming, as I recall. The writer must have been running his safety valves hard……
Colonial overlords spurned.
2. I can't see why not - the costs of maintaining the current numbers must be very high.
As I say, all the best and I hope the situation resolves soon.
In the real world this is pretty stupid from Mozzas. Better to have one person off sick than 20. So they clearly assume their workforce are liars who are faking the LFT tests. Are they even paying sick pay? Bet its SSP only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUtZOl_QxvY
There is a phenomenon where elderly peoples, while not actually senile, turn their opinions into a rigid caricature of their lifelong beliefs.
A number of people who’ve actually met Putin have commented he is very different from the Putin of a decade ago.