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No more polls after tomorrow in the French election – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    Exclusive: Trials to shorten football matches to 60 minutes but introduce a stop-clock, pausing the timer when the ball is not in play, could take place as early as this month.

    ⏰️ More details @iPaperSport 👇
    https://t.co/v9LgplOO7I
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505

    Kira Rudik
    @kiraincongress
    ·
    23m
    #Russia is suspended from the #UN Human Rights Council.

    Maybe they will establish War Criminals Counsil for themselves or something.

    #StopRussiaNOW
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
    My comments were about Patel rather than Le Pen.

    At a very great distance though Marine doesn't seem so bad.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    BigRich said:

    Armenia and Azerbaijan, both did not attend the vote, probably a way of them trying to 'play both sides' without having to formally Abstain.

    I guess Russia is playing peacekeeper between the two of them in Nagorno-Kharabakh.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,612

    Tiger is back!

    Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, I’m trying to get that Oprah.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    Freedom House has a map of Free countries, partly Free and Not Free:

    https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2022
    Given its neighboutd Mongolia seems to have done quite well. South America must have looked very different just 20-30 years ago too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,609

    Who is that berk they cast as the Ipcress lead? I posted on here a week or so ago that he has the charisma of a third-rate Herman von Rompuy impersonator.
    The hand that broke the egg was Len Deighton iirc.
  • Omnium said:

    My comments were about Patel rather than Le Pen.

    At a very great distance though Marine doesn't seem so bad.
    I recommend zooming in a bit, with one of those coin-per-view telescopes you get at the top of the Eiffel Tower, or Montmartre.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    To me there’s a line.

    Le Pen started on the other side of the line and as far as I concerned her moderation (such as it is) comes way too late in the day. A leopard doesn’t change its spots *that* much.

    Likewise I wouldn’t start supporting Nick Griffin if he suddenly started saying that the Lib Dems have a point about Brexit.

    In this (UK) country, we’ve largely avoided mainstream politicians crossing the line. Farage is currently sitting on it, or has perhaps crossed over, I’m afraid I don’t follow him on TikTok so I’m not sure.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728

    I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
    I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun

    Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe

    As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.

    I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    I really doubt this.

    It’s just China. The mighty and growing power of the world’s biggest trading nation: more important to all these nations than AUKUS/EU

    China is clearly on Russia’s side, for now. Why piss off your most important trading counterpart - and growing source of so much investment - in a relatively unimportant vote (to your nation)?

    Abstain. Makes total sense
    That's the UN, though, which may also have specific diplomatic guardrails linked to China. Look more generally at the online response throughout the world, outside north america and europe, and particularly in poorer regions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097

    Not by me it isn't.

    I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.

    It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
    Lol. Have you been abroad for the past few years?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728

    That's the UN. Look at the online response throughout the world.
    I just don’t believe the internet is that powerful in all these countries

    Besides, most of them aren’t democracies so they won’t care what their people think

    It’s realpolitik. Don’t annoy China. The next hegemon
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    I recommend zooming in a bit, with one of those coin-per-view telescopes you get at the top of the Eiffel Tower, or Montmartre.
    With your coin spent, what do you report?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,251
    Omnium said:

    My comments were about Patel rather than Le Pen.

    At a very great distance though Marine doesn't seem so bad.
    For me the same applies to anyone. Fans of Patel should be fine saying they are fans. Fans of Trump should say they are Trump fans. Same on the other side for Corbynites etc.

    Instead there seems to be a whole "code" where people want to show support for them through phrases like it being funny/exciting, or to blame the centrists for not giving them better candidates.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    I really doubt this.

    It’s just China. The mighty and growing power of the world’s biggest trading nation: more important to all these nations than AUKUS/EU

    China is clearly on Russia’s side, for now. Why piss off your most important trading counterpart - and growing source of so much investment - in a relatively unimportant vote (to your nation)?

    Abstain. Makes total sense
    True dat. It's not just that these places trade with China, China owns them. When I Cape to Cairoed 2006-7 every infrastructure project all the way up was Chinese. When I was in Cape Verde in February two locals on different islands spontaneously raised the subject of, and bitterly resented, the Great Chinese Buy Up Of Everything there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097
    Leon said:

    I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun

    Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe

    As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.

    I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
    Brexit encouraged Putin.

    Not least because he helped pay to bring it about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,523
    IanB2 said:

    Lol. Have you been abroad for the past few years?
    But seriously, who was the last French politician it was possible to admire from afar?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    I just don’t believe the internet is that powerful in all these countries

    Besides, most of them aren’t democracies so they won’t care what their people think

    It’s realpolitik. Don’t annoy China. The next hegemon
    It's more at the popular level, I would say. The "and why don't Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan matter" line has been repeated and re-tweeted possibly millions of times on social media now, with clear signs of the kind of equivalent Russian involvement as in Europe or the U.S earlier on. It's difficult to quantify the results, but they will be there.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    But seriously, who was the last French politician it was possible to admire from afar?
    Napoleon!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,251
    Leon said:

    I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun

    Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe

    As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.

    I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
    How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Tiger is back!

    That tee shot at the 6th and the recovery from the trees on the 7th... well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,078
    RobD said:

    Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
    No it is a Tory pocket filler scheme, they even charge us double to connect it the grid and sell it cheaper down south and in France. We are also a colony.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097
    Montgomerie scathing about Sunak on R4 PM
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728

    How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
    Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say

    Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW

    Whatever
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,523
    Omnium said:

    Napoleon!
    Indeed, St. Helena is quite afar....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    malcolmg said:

    No it is a Tory pocket filler scheme, they even charge us double to connect it the grid and sell it cheaper down south and in France. We are also a colony.
    "We are also a colony."

    Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.

    Otherwise, evening Malcolm.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    Exclusive: Trials to shorten football matches to 60 minutes but introduce a stop-clock, pausing the timer when the ball is not in play, could take place as early as this month.

    ⏰️ More details @iPaperSport 👇
    https://t.co/v9LgplOO7I

    A solution looking for a problem perhaps.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    With your coin spent, what do you report?
    A diagnosis of Putinism and racial instability, and an urgent call to the Mairie for a doctor.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It's more at the popular level, I would say. The "and why don't Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan matter" line has been repeated and re-tweeted possibly millions of times on social media now, with clear signs of the kind of equivalent Russian involvement as in Europe or the U.S earlier on. It's difficult to quantify the results, but they will be there.
    Naah. The good folk of North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, etc are by no means glued to twitter 24/7, and if they were their rulers don't give a fuck what they think anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805
    IanB2 said:

    Montgomerie scathing about Sunak on R4 PM

    Colin?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    kle4 said:

    A solution looking for a problem perhaps.
    You have to suspect a lack of advert breaks is the problem.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    A diagnosis of Putinism and racial instability, and an urgent call to the Mairie for a doctor.
    Care to be more specific?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202

    But seriously, who was the last French politician it was possible to admire from afar?
    The French system is shit.
    The fifth republic has issued up a series of chancers, crooks and megalomaniacs.

    It’s a good question you ask; Pompidou? He died half way through but he “left” the best modern art museum in the world.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728
    IshmaelZ said:

    Naah. The good folk of North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, etc are by no means glued to twitter 24/7, and if they were their rulers don't give a fuck what they think anyway.
    Tho I do like the idea that the North Korean politburo are all staring at TikTok in horror and saying

    “Christ, the Russians have got a really good meme game going. Everyone is watching this in the dog meat bars of Pyongyang. And these Putin gifs are superb. We have to go with Russia”
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Naah. The good folk of North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, etc are by no means glued to twitter 24/7, and if they were their rulers don't give a fuck what they think anyway.
    Well, there are two separate issues. Some of these countries will indeed have been roped in as an authoritarian pro-China vote, on a specific diplomatic and UN issue. But there's also the issue of global public opinion outside the West more generally, intersecting with some of the other countries on the list, and that's where I think the phenomenon I'm discussing would be more relevant.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Omnium said:

    "We are also a colony."

    Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.

    Otherwise, evening Malcolm.

    Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Colin?
    Hi didn't get the gig for the Masters on Sky.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,251
    Leon said:

    Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say

    Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW

    Whatever
    It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say

    Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW

    Whatever
    I want her to win because she reminds me of Carolyn Martens off Killing Eve, and I like her.

    So that's one.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Omnium said:

    Napoleon!
    Jean Jaures and Georges Clemenceau
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
    I think you may mean satellite or some other phrase.

    London did not colonise all of these other places.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,251

    Colin?
    Sunak has come a fair way in his time in politics but is now fading off to the right.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say

    Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW

    Whatever
    You don’t need to look into the soul.

    Just, when a poster has a history of boosting Putin and Le Pen, and often returns to the subjects of Gabriele d’Annunzio, you get a strong feeling.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    kle4 said:

    Terrible news. Sounds like the situation will get a lot worse before(if) it gets better in the East.
    If the experts are right Russia won't be in a fit state to launch another offensive anytime soon. If Putin is determined to go ahead immediately because of the railway timetable sorry 9th May parade he has planned then that's probably a good thing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,787

    Colin?
    No, Field Marshall.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Omnium said:

    I think you may mean satellite or some other phrase.

    London did not colonise all of these other places.
    Yeh I mean it in an economic sense.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
    London is the biggest colony of all - ruled over by a government that we didn't vote for, taken out of the EU against our will, taxed relentlessly to subsidise everyone else, and endlessly told that we are not properly British while being blamed for everyone else's problems.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Andy_JS said:

    I did a spreadsheet for the EU referendum results night, but it didn't predict what would happen overall, it just attempted to say how each area would vote if the result was 50/50 overall.
    That spreadsheet made me quite a lot of money.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,078
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    "We are also a colony."

    Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.

    Otherwise, evening Malcolm.

    Hello Omnium, given we send all our money to our Lords and Masters in London and get a pittance sent back whilst they make merry splashing cash on all sorts of southern stuff and parties , booze , non dom status , tax havens , etc. Treat us like peasants etc etc , need I say more.
    A pleasant evening to you too.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Yeh I mean it in an economic sense.
    And as such you surely have to see that it's others gravitating towards London that has been the theme.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728

    You don’t need to look into the soul.

    Just, when a poster has a history of boosting Putin and Le Pen, and often returns to the subjects of Gabriele d’Annunzio, you get a strong feeling.
    What the fuck is “boosting”? Seriously. What a load of childish twaddle
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,523

    The French system is shit.
    The fifth republic has issued up a series of chancers, crooks and megalomaniacs.

    It’s a good question you ask; Pompidou? He died half way through but he “left” the best modern art museum in the world.
    I think that is fair; a French President most remembered for having the pipework on the outside!

    We may have some shite politicians here but at least none has been reduced to house arrest with an ankle bracelet.

    Yet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Omnium said:

    And as such you surely have to see that it's others gravitating towards London that has been the theme.

    You are applying the wrong sense of colony.

    Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,787

    London is the biggest colony of all - ruled over by a government that we didn't vote for, taken out of the EU against our will, taxed relentlessly to subsidise everyone else, and endlessly told that we are not properly British while being blamed for everyone else's problems.
    You shouldn't take it so personally - nobody actually thinks that you have the clout to cause anyone any problems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805

    You are applying the wrong sense of colony.

    Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
    Is there a particular economist you're deriving this use of the term from?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728
    IshmaelZ said:

    True dat. It's not just that these places trade with China, China owns them. When I Cape to Cairoed 2006-7 every infrastructure project all the way up was Chinese. When I was in Cape Verde in February two locals on different islands spontaneously raised the subject of, and bitterly resented, the Great Chinese Buy Up Of Everything there.
    Likewise Sri Lanka. Outright loathing of the Chinese - and of the Sri Lankan elite which is perceived to have sold the country to Beijing

    And now the poor Sri Lankans are almost starving

    There are multiple scenarios where this all ends quite badly for China. They are feared, they are not liked
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202

    Is there a particular economist you're deriving this use of the term from?
    Yep.

    Francis Fuk yo ma.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,078

    I think that is fair; a French President most remembered for having the pipework on the outside!

    We may have some shite politicians here but at least none has been reduced to house arrest with an ankle bracelet.

    Yet.
    Good few that should have been , we are just not as assidious at chasing down our wrong uns. They get enobled here for that type of thing.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    malcolmg said:

    Hello Omnium, given we send all our money to our Lords and Masters in London and get a pittance sent back whilst they make merry splashing cash on all sorts of southern stuff and parties , booze , non dom status , tax havens , etc. Treat us like peasants etc etc , need I say more.
    A pleasant evening to you too.
    Tricky to make that case. Depends of course only on whether Scottish oil is Scottish. (I guess I'll surprise you by saying it is)

    I'm pleased that we're back on good (if disagreeing) terms.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,313

    I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
    Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Likewise Sri Lanka. Outright loathing of the Chinese - and of the Sri Lankan elite which is perceived to have sold the country to Beijing

    And now the poor Sri Lankans are almost starving

    There are multiple scenarios where this all ends quite badly for China. They are feared, they are not liked
    When we had an empire nobody liked us much, and that didn't really slow us down for several centuries.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    The Irish government is making preparations to house Ukrainian refugees in tents and warehouses.

    The British government's failure to play its party in helping with this aspect of the crisis becomes ever more shameful.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805
    @JulianRoepcke

    Senior Western government official says Russian troop withdrawal from Kyiv region was “no real withdrawal, but rather a large scale redeployment to the east”.
    Forces are getting re-supplied in Russia right now. “We expect a massive offensive soon. It has not yet started”, he says

    He also says, “Kyiv is not out of danger”. A new push could come from the East in the context of all-out Russian war against Ukraine.
    “We don’t know what Putin will do”, he says. “But from what we see, we better expect the worst.”


    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1512112896750325768
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,078
    Omnium said:

    Tricky to make that case. Depends of course only on whether Scottish oil is Scottish. (I guess I'll surprise you by saying it is)

    I'm pleased that we're back on good (if disagreeing) terms.
    Likewise, as they say fools seldom differ so we are on the right track.
  • Omnium said:

    Care to be more specific?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-crimea-russia-putin-ukraine-illegal-annexation-france-front-national-fn-a7507361.html

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/le-pen-calls-protesters-scum-after-paris-cop-charged-with-rape
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728
    IshmaelZ said:

    When we had an empire nobody liked us much, and that didn't really slow us down for several centuries.
    That’s true. On the other hand we were the only global superpower, and we were also proper imperialists. We were happy to shoot the shit out of you if you got out of line

    *nostalgic sigh*

    China is not that, at all. And yet China is still breeding intense resentment already. Moreover in several of these countries there is a history of violent anti-Chinese sentiment. Indonesia experienced an anti Chinese pogrom in 1998

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1998_riots_of_Indonesia
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    I just don’t believe the internet is that powerful in all these countries

    Besides, most of them aren’t democracies so they won’t care what their people think

    It’s realpolitik. Don’t annoy China. The next hegemon
    True but let's have a bit of perspective. Many of them abstained but they didn't dare to vote in Russia's favour. In that sense they could be seen as non-aligned. So on one side you have the most technologically advanced and wealthiest countries. And on the other you have China and various less successful nations. India and quite a few others are in the middle.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    You are applying the wrong sense of colony.

    Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
    I didn't suggest anywhere was a colony. Pretty hard therefore to be wrong in the sense of its use as a word.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,790

    It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
    I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen.
    Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097

    I think that is fair; a French President most remembered for having the pipework on the outside!

    We may have some shite politicians here but at least none has been reduced to house arrest with an ankle bracelet.

    Yet.
    One can only hope, given the incumbent.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).

    I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.

    9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.

    9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.

    1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.

    None have any particular underlying conditions of note.

    Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
    "To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.

    Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629
    Taz said:

    Not a lot of people know that.

    (Apologies. Couldn’t resist.)
    "You were only supposed to blow the bloody BMP-3's doors off!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,001
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Yes. Why are the likes of Barbados and St Kitts abstaining on this?
    Barbados is an independent republic now remember, as others have mentioned, Beijing is now more important to them than us.

    There is clear a divide between Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, South Korea and Chile and Argentina which are clearly pro Ukraine and the rest of the world which is either indifferent or in some cases, like Cuba and North Korea, Iran, Syria, China and Belarus, pro Russia
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    @JulianRoepcke

    Senior Western government official says Russian troop withdrawal from Kyiv region was “no real withdrawal, but rather a large scale redeployment to the east”.
    Forces are getting re-supplied in Russia right now. “We expect a massive offensive soon. It has not yet started”, he says

    He also says, “Kyiv is not out of danger”. A new push could come from the East in the context of all-out Russian war against Ukraine.
    “We don’t know what Putin will do”, he says. “But from what we see, we better expect the worst.”


    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1512112896750325768

    That is making a huge assumption that the Russians can reconstitute their severely mauled troops withdrawn from around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into some semblance not only of a fighting force, but one that can perform significantly better than their elite units have to date.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    edited April 2022
    So I was right about Rishi.

    I’m also right about Johnson, Patel, Truss, Javid, Barclay, Eustice, Shapps and Lewis. Not to mention Rees-Mogg.

    I was wrong about Raab and Kwarteng, they are both awful.

    Jury’s out on Zahawi and Coffey.

    I was the first person to tip Wallace, by the way. He and Gove are the only people keeping the fucking circus running.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,097

    So I was right about Rishi.

    I’m also right about Johnson, Patel, Truss, Javid, Barclay, Eustice, Shapps and Lewis. Not to mention Rees-Mogg.

    I was wrong about Raab and Kwarteng, they are both awful.

    Jury’s out on Zahawi and Coffey.

    I was the first person to tip Wallace, by the way. He and Gove are the only people keeping the fucking circus running.

    When the clown can’t even run the circus, we know we are in trouble…
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Omnium said:

    I didn't suggest anywhere was a colony. Pretty hard therefore to be wrong in the sense of its use as a word.
    It was implied in your erroneous argument about people moving to London.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).

    I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.

    9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.

    9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.

    1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.

    None have any particular underlying conditions of note.

    Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.

    This sounds a bit like that coin tossing game at the beginning of R & G Are Dead. If vaccines are not gender-segregated how on earth does it happen that you know 9 blokes who all got one set of stuff and 9 women who got another?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629
    IanB2 said:

    When the clown can’t even run the circus, we know we are in trouble…
    "When a clown moves into a palace, he does not become a king. The palace becomes a circus."
    -Turkish proverb
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728
    edited April 2022
    Cookie said:

    I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen.
    Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
    Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates

    For me, it probably would be Le Pen

    Melenchon is Corbyn: no way
    Pecresse seems totally feeble
    Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad
    Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris

    Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?

    Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed


    So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support


    Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,313
    I had a fair idea Pickles was a self important, pie eating twat but not that he was such a primo c**t.





  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,251
    Cookie said:

    I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen.
    Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
    There are plenty who want tougher sentences for anything and everything, unless the crimes are committed by the government of course, who get a pass because of mean judges. These are your authoritarians.

    We have lots of both English and Scottish nationalists, not sure why saying this is seen as controversial?

    And Brexit was a weird mix of protectionist and free traders, but the protectionist wing is amply represented. This week there was discussion on a law to force UK oil companies to sell the oil below market price to the UK to reduce the impact of the energy crisis. Those are your protectionists.

    These are all mainstream opinions help by large parts of the population.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933
    It is hailstoning hard now. Bitter wind.
    Grim.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Leon said:

    Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates

    For me, it probably would be Le Pen

    Melenchon is Corbyn: no way
    Pecresse seems totally feeble
    Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad
    Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris

    Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?

    Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed


    So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support


    Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
    “I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”

    Play it again, Sam.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "When a clown moves into a palace, he does not become a king. The palace becomes a circus."
    -Turkish proverb
    When the doughnut has been eaten, where is the hole in the middle?
    -Wittgenstein
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    It was implied in your erroneous argument about people moving to London.
    Well clearly it would have been a daft thing to say. That I guess is mainly why I didn't say it. No colonialism has ever happened in the UK.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,313
    IshmaelZ said:

    "To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.

    Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
    Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    This sounds a bit like that coin tossing game at the beginning of R & G Are Dead. If vaccines are not gender-segregated how on earth does it happen that you know 9 blokes who all got one set of stuff and 9 women who got another?
    Because they were gender segregated here for some reason. The one woman who had A/A/P had hers before the panic about Az as she’s a doctor and after that they were giving Pf to the ladies.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    What is not clear to me -- and, I suspect, to many others -- is how large the gap is between what Le Pen is saying now, and what she believes.

    That question is routine for politicians. For example, during the Obama administration, I thought I could predict what he would do, by assuming he would govern as far to the left -- as he could get away with. So, for example, he claimed he was opposed to gay marriage for religious reasons while that was the predominant view in the electorate. (He actually followed Biden's lead on the subject.)

    Were she elected, would she do something similar, getting as close to actual fascism as she could get away with? Would she, for example, weaken NATO, but not withdraw from it?

    Would she have working majorities in the National Assembly and the Senate?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,199
    Farooq said:

    I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls.
    I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
    If you post via Vanilla there are editing buttons, which include an option for attaching images.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    When the doughnut has been eaten, where is the hole in the middle?
    -Wittgenstein
    American capitalism solved that riddle years ago...they are in the other bag you walked out the shop with after they up sold you the holes as doughnut bites :-)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,787
    boulay said:

    I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).

    I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.

    9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.

    9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.

    1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.

    None have any particular underlying conditions of note.

    Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.

    Why the difference in jab combinations?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,001
    Leon said:

    Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates

    For me, it probably would be Le Pen

    Melenchon is Corbyn: no way
    Pecresse seems totally feeble
    Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad
    Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris

    Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?

    Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed


    So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support


    Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
    Personally I would vote for Pecresse and if she failed to make the runoff, as is likely, Macron over Le Pen or Melenchon.

    Though yes Le Pen is benefiting from much the same nationalist backlash against globalisation that produced Brexit, Trump and Orban. While Melenchon is getting the same populist left backing against inequality Corbyn got
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    If Le Pen does pull off a shock win, it would probably also partially be a third triumph for Russian online activity, propaganda and manipulation of Western divisions, after Brexit and Trump.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805
    TimT said:

    That is making a huge assumption that the Russians can reconstitute their severely mauled troops withdrawn from around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into some semblance not only of a fighting force, but one that can perform significantly better than their elite units have to date.
    That's true. Röpcke has generally had good sources though so I assume it's reliable information.

    Incidentally, one interesting thing that's become clear from following the debate in Germany is that hawkishness on Russia was considered a 'low status' opinion, associated with people who read the Bild Zeitung. That helps explain why so many people were able to rationalise away the obvious issues with their Ostpolitik.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Omnium said:

    Well clearly it would have been a daft thing to say. That I guess is mainly why I didn't say it. No colonialism has ever happened in the UK.
    You seem unfamiliar with the various meanings of colony and there is no point pursuing this argument further.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,078

    So I was right about Rishi.

    I’m also right about Johnson, Patel, Truss, Javid, Barclay, Eustice, Shapps and Lewis. Not to mention Rees-Mogg.

    I was wrong about Raab and Kwarteng, they are both awful.

    Jury’s out on Zahawi and Coffey.

    I was the first person to tip Wallace, by the way. He and Gove are the only people keeping the fucking circus running.

    YOU blew it at the end there by adding Gollum as good, that moron could not run a bath.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,728

    “I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”

    Play it again, Sam.
    So fucking tedious

    I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll

    Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?

    No. Nor do I

    So why are they apparently voting for her?

    The loathe Macron
    They want real change
    They are praying she has detoxed
    They detest the Parisian elite
    They are worried by migration
    They are worried about inflation and security
    They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds
    They look at all the other alternatives and despair

    Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
This discussion has been closed.