What seems to be recent footage from Mariupol showing Ukrainian resistance with fighting outside of the city centre, in the suburbs. Also, pretty ballsy taking on tanks with a BTR.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1512060297607065602 Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage...
An apparently expert tax lawyer on Twitter says that Sunak’s wife has to make this choice every tax year: stay non dom or become a domiciled Brit paying full British taxes
So she could have decided, once Sunak made it to Chancellor, to avoid this obvious looming clusterfuck and pay her full taxes (not that painful for her, given that she is worth 700 million). Then Sunak could have looked us all in the eye and said We pay full taxes in the UK. No scandal
Instead she decided to carry on avoiding lots of tax. In which case Sunak should have told her: fair enough darling, but that means I cannot be Chancellor, the political embarrassment will be horrible and damaging
That’s the conversation they should have had. Either they didn’t have it - hard to believe - or they thought, fuck it, we can get away with it
Sunak is obviously now dead in the water so far as the leadership is concerned. I wonder if at the next reshuffle he'll stand down from the cabinet and leave politics at the next GE. The dream is over - UK's first BAME PM. What is there to look forward to now?
I've felt for quite a while - before Ukraine - that Ben Wallace was being overlooked as a potential successor to Boris. He will go down very well with Tory members and looks very competent and reliable. Hopefully he doesn't have a billionaire wife either.
Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician? Probably in his best role, given his military career. But lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff
Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)
Nope. Can’t see it
I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
Wallace has higher approval ratings than Truss and Hunt with Yougov. He is also in the Cabinet unlike Mordaunt now.
Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
Isn't Tugendhat more likely than Wallace?
No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.
I would be happy with either though
Wallace = Millfield, 1SG, Father 1KDG Tugendhat = St.Pauls, AGC, Father son of immigrants.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
Yes, remarkably. He is now, almost, the underdog. She has the big momentum. The French are clearly in a rebellious mood
On the latter, I think the international "pressure" will backfire as well, just like it did here wrt Brexit.
If Macron contrives to lose this, his decision not to really engage with the campaign, but to rise above it like the God Jupiter, will be viewed as one of the greatest and most consequential mistakes in postwar French politics
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
Zac Goldsmith had to give up his non-dom status for this reason
The wife of the CHANCELLOR?
Incidentally, in answer to the question why do mega-rich people try and avoid tax so strenuously, when they can easily afford it, a friend of mine - who is literally married to a billionairess (her extended family is even richer) explained this to me the other day
What happens is that a clever person comes to you and says, Oh, by the way, did you realise that if you do THIS, THIS and THIS, you can avoid £20 million in tax this year?
Even the ultra-rich find that psychologically hard to resist. Twenty million quid. In one year? What happens if something terrible happens and I suddenly need that twenty million after all? A coup? An asteroid? A plague?
And so the rich person says Yes to the clever person, and off they go down the road of tax minimization, which then conjures a life of its own: more people get involved, more schemes are devised, it gets more complex, the taxman takes an interest, more schemes are needed, and so on and so forth. My friend says he’s seen members of this family spend fruitless weeks sorting their finances when they are stupidly, stupidly rich, and could thus enjoy one of the great benefits of wealth - NOT having to worry about money. Yet they do not enjoy this benefit
I found his argument plausible - and consoling
My own experience is... as soon as you start dealing with multiple types of income across different countries... you get inevitably drawn in to time consuming issues relating to tax planning. You just have no choice other than to engage with it. I am sure that other people posting on here will have the same experience.
Life is simple for people who just live in one country, you can manage your tax affairs yourself easily. As soon as you start living in two countries or owning property overseas, it gets very complicated.
These are not dilemmas unique to the ultra rich, by any means.
I dunno. If I was worth, say, a billion, I’d just hire a solid reputable accountant and say: minimise my taxes, but don’t go overboard, and leave it at that
I’d probably end up paying £10mn a year rather than the possibly optimum, fuck-the-taxman £5mn? But I would calm myself by remembering I am worth £1bn so it is peanuts. And I would get on with my life not having to give another thought to money, which is a marvellous thing, and surely the greatest boon of serious wealth (unless you actually enjoy playing with money, and some do - I don’t)
If you had a billion, and it was productively invested at 7% return, you would have an income of £70 million. Hard to see how you could get away with paying £10 million, never mind £5 million. You would probably expect to pay about a third, so about £20 million. But even to get to that point, you would have to be structuring the investments in a tax efficient way and taking advantage of legal schemes, such as the non domicile arrangement - which then open you up to accusations of tax avoidance. If you just say 'im going to pay whatever the tax rate is', then you could end up just paying eye watering and painful amounts of tax. I am not an expert, and certainly not wealthy, but have gone through enough of this to see the problem.
No
If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold
I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye
Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
This is fine, if your income is all derived from the UK and you live here, you would just pay the additional rate (on dividends), which is 39.35%. But as I said, it just gets complicated when the income is derived from other countries, and you live in different countries - you inevitably get sucked in to tax planning and accusations of tax avoidance, even if you just want to pay around 39.35%, which is what you would pay were you the 'honest UK citizen who can look their fellow countrymen in the eye'. I'd hazard a guess that Sunak and his wife have basically been caught in this trap. I don't feel that sorry for them, but it would be unfortunate if his career was ruined over it; he seems ok; and there is a severe shortage of competent people willing to go in to politics.
An apparently expert tax lawyer on Twitter says that Sunak’s wife has to make this choice every tax year: stay non dom or become a domiciled Brit paying full British taxes
So she could have decided, once Sunak made it to Chancellor, to avoid this obvious looming clusterfuck and pay her full taxes (not that painful for her, given that she is worth 700 million). Then Sunak could have looked us all in the eye and said We pay full taxes in the UK. No scandal
Instead she decided to carry on avoiding lots of tax. In which case Sunak should have told her: fair enough darling, but that means I cannot be Chancellor, the political embarrassment will be horrible and damaging
That’s the conversation they should have had. Either they didn’t have it - hard to believe - or they thought, fuck it, we can get away with it
Sunak is obviously now dead in the water so far as the leadership is concerned. I wonder if at the next reshuffle he'll stand down from the cabinet and leave politics at the next GE. The dream is over - UK's first BAME PM. What is there to look forward to now?
I've felt for quite a while - before Ukraine - that Ben Wallace was being overlooked as a potential successor to Boris. He will go down very well with Tory members and looks very competent and reliable. Hopefully he doesn't have a billionaire wife either.
Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician? Probably in his best role, given his military career. But lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff
Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)
Nope. Can’t see it
I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
Wallace has higher approval ratings than Truss and Hunt with Yougov. He is also in the Cabinet unlike Mordaunt now.
Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
Isn't Tugendhat more likely than Wallace?
No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.
I would be happy with either though
Wallace is also Remain
There will come a time in Tory politics - soon, I hope - when this dichotomy won’t matter. But we are not there yet. It matters
Yes, but I think he was very much part of Team Boris which may help if BJ is defenestrated. Readymade team of loyalists on hand.
Have you noticed how recent PMs have alternated between the charismatic and the dull/worthy? An iron law?
Thatcher/Major Blair/Brown Cameron/May Johnson/??
Starmer.
Still value in the Next PM market even though he's clear fav now.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
Zac Goldsmith had to give up his non-dom status for this reason
The wife of the CHANCELLOR?
Incidentally, in answer to the question why do mega-rich people try and avoid tax so strenuously, when they can easily afford it, a friend of mine - who is literally married to a billionairess (her extended family is even richer) explained this to me the other day
What happens is that a clever person comes to you and says, Oh, by the way, did you realise that if you do THIS, THIS and THIS, you can avoid £20 million in tax this year?
Even the ultra-rich find that psychologically hard to resist. Twenty million quid. In one year? What happens if something terrible happens and I suddenly need that twenty million after all? A coup? An asteroid? A plague?
And so the rich person says Yes to the clever person, and off they go down the road of tax minimization, which then conjures a life of its own: more people get involved, more schemes are devised, it gets more complex, the taxman takes an interest, more schemes are needed, and so on and so forth. My friend says he’s seen members of this family spend fruitless weeks sorting their finances when they are stupidly, stupidly rich, and could thus enjoy one of the great benefits of wealth - NOT having to worry about money. Yet they do not enjoy this benefit
I found his argument plausible - and consoling
My own experience is... as soon as you start dealing with multiple types of income across different countries... you get inevitably drawn in to time consuming issues relating to tax planning. You just have no choice other than to engage with it. I am sure that other people posting on here will have the same experience.
Life is simple for people who just live in one country, you can manage your tax affairs yourself easily. As soon as you start living in two countries or owning property overseas, it gets very complicated.
These are not dilemmas unique to the ultra rich, by any means.
I dunno. If I was worth, say, a billion, I’d just hire a solid reputable accountant and say: minimise my taxes, but don’t go overboard, and leave it at that
I’d probably end up paying £10mn a year rather than the possibly optimum, fuck-the-taxman £5mn? But I would calm myself by remembering I am worth £1bn so it is peanuts. And I would get on with my life not having to give another thought to money, which is a marvellous thing, and surely the greatest boon of serious wealth (unless you actually enjoy playing with money, and some do - I don’t)
If you had a billion, and it was productively invested at 7% return, you would have an income of £70 million. Hard to see how you could get away with paying £10 million, never mind £5 million. You would probably expect to pay about a third, so about £20 million. But even to get to that point, you would have to be structuring the investments in a tax efficient way and taking advantage of legal schemes, such as the non domicile arrangement - which then open you up to accusations of tax avoidance. If you just say 'im going to pay whatever the tax rate is', then you could end up just paying eye watering and painful amounts of tax. I am not an expert, and certainly not wealthy, but have gone through enough of this to see the problem.
No
If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold
I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye
Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
This is fine, if your income is all derived from the UK and you live here, you would just pay the additional rate (on dividends), which is 39.35%. But as I said, it just gets complicated when the income is derived from other countries, and you live in different countries - you inevitably get sucked in to tax planning and accusations of tax avoidance, even if you just want to pay around 39.35%, which is what you would pay were you the 'honest UK citizen who can look their fellow countrymen in the eye'. I'd hazard a guess that Sunak and his wife have basically been caught in this trap. I don't feel that sorry for them, but it would be unfortunate if his career was ruined over it; he seems ok; and there is a severe shortage of competent people willing to go in to politics.
How does the spring budget demonstrate the workings of someone 'competent'?
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
Confirming what I was sort-of conjecturing on PT, non domicile status looks open to Q
If you need to reach for Professor Murphaloon, it's usually a flag of an absence of evidence.
It's well over a decade since he was launching voluminous broadsides against banks for not paying enough taxes, whilst completely forgetting to mention that they had mad losses of billions the previous year.
The latest I saw was him calculating recently how much the country was paying for energy by taking the fixed rate bill he had been offered for his house where his family live in Downham Market of "around £3000", and applying that universally.
(Fixed rate bills are not regulated by Ofgem, and are currently about 40-50% higher than the regulated "cap" of £1971 for the average household on a variable tariff.)
Ad hom. Other commentators have been questioning this too.
Ad hom against Murphy? IMO Murphy's ignorance / misreporting is not really a case that needs to be argued after all these years.
I look forward to seeing some credible commentary on the non-dom issue.
The underlying problem for me is still that the Indy has exaggerated its non-story. The headline, which is what will be read and has gone around the media, is a claim of fact:
"Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s millionaire wife avoids tax through non-dom status"
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
Mown grass = shit habitat
Brambles and nettles = good habitat
I think you might lose that one.
I'd watch out for freelance mountain-bikers creating a course full of dips and jumps.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
It's just the opportunity of change. It doesn't happen so often after all. Macron has been very average.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
One issue with the French method of limiting bill rises on electricity, the state has also announced a recapitalisation of EDF so it can stand the losses of government policy and it will probably be back for more before long given the losses it will take. The French people will pay for it, just through some other means of stealth taxes.
LePen also seems to have some very radical and potentially incendiary policies hidden under the much politer and calmer exterior these days, from what I understand. Priority in housing and services for the "aryan french", although the much politer FN wouldn't use that kind of terminology nowadays. That's the kind of programme that could set off massive social unrest and dislocation in France, if ever implemented.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
One issue with the French method of limiting bill rises on electricity, the state has also announced a recapitalisation of EDF so it can stand the losses of government policy and it will probably be back for more before long given the losses it will take. The French people will pay for it, just through some other means of stealth taxes.
Ms Pecresse is the only one of the candidates who seems to have picked up on this: she's pointed out that bills should be rising EUR400 or so, and are being held down artificially.
But that isn't getting much traction.
Ms Le Pen, on the other hand, supports the full renationalisation of the electricity sector, so that the nasty market doesn't have any annoying role in setting prices.
Interestingly even while Le Pen narrowly beats Macron with Atlas 50.5% to 49.5% and Macron only marginally leads Melenchon 53.9% to 46.1%, Macron trounces Pecresse.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
That seems persuasive, but you might enjoy this. Real stat geekery, by a modeller, who claims to have called Brexit right against the consensus. He sees a similar pattern unfolding here
TLDR: he gives Le Pen a 55% chance of winning (ie she’s now the favourite) tho his models actually say she is much more likely to win than that - 93%! -, he is just uncomfortable being so outside received opinion
LePen also seems to have some very radical and potentially incendiary policies hidden under the much politer and calmer exterior these days, as I understand. Priority in housing and services for the "aryan french", although the much politer FN wouldn't use that kind of terminology for what they're planing nowadays. That kind of programme could set off massive social unrest and dislocation if ever implemented in France.
I think she's ok. However I'd take the risk on her only as an over the channel observer.
The French have a good reputation for innovative political change. It'll be interesting to see what they come up with.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
Sending diplomats home is a load of nothing. Asking for more sanctions but ensuring they don't actually have any teeth is also a load of nothing.
Macron is desperate to be seen as some kind of uber diplomatic peacemaker who can show that France is still globally relevant. Instead he's just being used by Putin as a conduit for false information (he told Macron that he would pull back his forces days before the invasion which fooled some more dimwitted intelligence agencies in Europe) or as a route to a ceasefire style "peace" deal which will be forced onto Ukraine and then business as usual until Putin wants to annex more of it.
He's a liability and while I think there probably are votes in appeasing Putin, Macron has charted a path that won't win him Russia hawks but also neutralises many of the Putin attacks that Le Pen would have expected to receive.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
One issue with the French method of limiting bill rises on electricity, the state has also announced a recapitalisation of EDF so it can stand the losses of government policy and it will probably be back for more before long given the losses it will take. The French people will pay for it, just through some other means of stealth taxes.
Well yes, everything has to be paid for in the round...
Adding another couple of % to the French national debt won't have the eye-watering inflationary/consumer demand crunch that the UK's eye-watering domestic energy hikes will though. It's also better for their manufacturing.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Am I right in thinking that you have to pay tax on all your worldwide income in the US if you live in the US? Wouldn't this put us at a major disadvantage since we allow people who are resident here to pay their tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction?
Not really, we have a double taxation treaty with the US. Income earned here is taxed here and then knocked off their potential US tax liability. In reality UK taxes are much higher anyway.
It's a little worse than that, because you essentially pay the higher of the two rates.
So you pay tax to the UK Exchequer on your UK income? I thought you said you were taxed on it in the US?
Regardless of whether Le Pen wins or not, the era of European politics being dominated by the Franco-German motor seems to be coming to an end. Its moral legitimacy that rested on post-war reconciliation has been substantially eroded.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
Alternatively, the French don’t really care about Ukraine/Putin as regards this election. Sure they hate the war and the killing, but they are voting for a president and for changes in FRENCH society.
If that is the case it maybe slightly benefits Le Pen, who is seen as more engaged on domestic issues? Even as Macron calls everyone in the world
Am I right in thinking that you have to pay tax on all your worldwide income in the US if you live in the US? Wouldn't this put us at a major disadvantage since we allow people who are resident here to pay their tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction?
Not just if you live in the US. Also if you're a US citizen living anywhere else. The only way to get out of it is to renounce citizenship.
Interestingly even while Le Pen narrowly beats Macron with Atlas 50.5% to 49.5% and Macron only marginally leads Melenchon 53.9% to 46.1%, Macron trounces Pecresse.
I suppose when Pecresse turned out to be a pound shop Andrea Leadsom there was no return. If voters are going to get incompetence, they don't want dull incompetence.
Regardless of whether Le Pen wins or not, the era of European politics being dominated by the Franco-German motor seems to be coming to an end. Its moral legitimacy that rested on post-war reconciliation has been substantially eroded.
Germany's actions over Ukraine mean that Eastern European nations will struggle to trust it ever again, "Never again" seems to ring very hollow these days after seeing what happened in Bucha and then on the flip side Germany spending €2-3bn per week on Russian oil and gas to fund Putin's war.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
But isn't the BIB the responsibility/fault of the Welsh government?
Of course, it is the Welsh Government's feckin fault.
It is Colonialism 101 to have some Noddy Government in charge of the colony, peopled by the exploiters & the quarter-witted.
Who do we find on Bute Empire's advisory board?
Former Labour MEP, Derek Vaughan CBE. And here's a coincidence. Labour MS Jenny Rathbone’s partner also sits on the Board!
Which is lucky. Because Rathbone sits on the Senedd’s Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee.
Which means that the committee on which she sits makes the decisions on windfarms that benefit Bute Energy.
Jenny Rathbone is as authentically Welsh as only a multi-millionaire Corbynista and former Islington Councillor who had to apologise for antisemitic remarks can be.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
That seems persuasive, but you might enjoy this. Real stat geekery, by a modeller, who claims to have called Brexit right against the consensus. He sees a similar pattern unfolding here
TLDR: he gives Le Pen a 55% chance of winning (ie she’s now the favourite) tho his models actually say she is much more likely to win than that - 93%! -, he is just uncomfortable being so outside received opinion
I could well be wrong. If Le Pen won, would I be surprised? Nope, because 15% shots come in all the time. (About one in six, one in seven times.)
I'm also very suspicious of the guy's methodology, because he's assuming that momentum continues, and there's a lot of statistical evidence that (outside of party primaries) that last week (or last month's) move in polling has no influence on the likely future direction. If you improved your position two points last month, it's just as likely you fall back this week.
Interesting read. As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread ... https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995713135443969
Interesting that Le Pen also has the balls to say she's only "partly changed" her view of Putin since the invasion. Given she's been supporting him avidly since the 2014 Crimea invasion, that could potentially leave the West an even greater problem, in the government of one of its key powers, than Trump's sycophancy.
Regardless of whether Le Pen wins or not, the era of European politics being dominated by the Franco-German motor seems to be coming to an end. Its moral legitimacy that rested on post-war reconciliation has been substantially eroded.
Just really German.
The French have managed to organise the decorations.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
Alternatively, the French don’t really care about Ukraine/Putin as regards this election. Sure they hate the war and the killing, but they are voting for a president and for changes in FRENCH society.
If that is the case it maybe slightly benefits Le Pen, who is seen as more engaged on domestic issues? Even as Macron calls everyone in the world
That's my theory. I do see the argument that French voters may be disappointed with Macron's actions re: Ukraine, but I find it hard to believe that if that is at the forefront of their minds they would be shifting to Le Pen or even allowing her to stay still in the polls. My guess is like yours: She has successfully campaigned on domestic, inflation and cost of living, matters and the public are more concerned about those.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
He is, by all accounts, as narcissistic in private as he appears in public life. I reckon he simply enjoys the grandeur of calling the Russian president during a major European war
He’s also been a reasonably competent French president at a difficult time. Not great but probably better than Hollande or Sarko
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
Yes, remarkably. He is now, almost, the underdog. She has the big momentum. The French are clearly in a rebellious mood
On the latter, I think the international "pressure" will backfire as well, just like it did here wrt Brexit.
If Macron contrives to lose this, his decision not to really engage with the campaign, but to rise above it like the God Jupiter, will be viewed as one of the greatest and most consequential mistakes in postwar French politics
Also his response to the Yellow Vest protests over the last few years.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
That seems persuasive, but you might enjoy this. Real stat geekery, by a modeller, who claims to have called Brexit right against the consensus. He sees a similar pattern unfolding here
TLDR: he gives Le Pen a 55% chance of winning (ie she’s now the favourite) tho his models actually say she is much more likely to win than that - 93%! -, he is just uncomfortable being so outside received opinion
I could well be wrong. If Le Pen won, would I be surprised? Nope, because 15% shots come in all the time. (About one in six, one in seven times.)
I'm also very suspicious of the guy's methodology, because he's assuming that momentum continues, and there's a lot of statistical evidence that (outside of party primaries) that last week (or last month's) move in polling has no influence on the likely future direction. If you improved your position two points last month, it's just as likely you fall back this week.
Yes, he seems to be simply extrapolating. Nonetheless if he got Brexit right, well done him. I’d love to know how precisely he got it right, because he is very precise
His move at the end to simply slash the chances of Le Pen winning because he is so embarrassed by how out of whack they seem, also suggests someone not entirely confident of his models.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
He is, by all accounts, as narcissistic in private as he appears in public life. I reckon he simply enjoys the grandeur of calling the Russian president during a major European war
He’s also been a reasonably competent French president at a difficult time. Not great but probably better than Hollande or Sarko
Hollande recently said there's no point talking to Putin because he lies all the time.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
None of my business, but of all the problems afflicting Wales it doesn't strike me that an insufficiency of trees is particularly high up the list.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion around at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
Le Pen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only recently seems to have half-recanted, if that.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Much more likely it's the rich Welsh exploiting the poor Welsh (by stealing the howling gales which are the Welsh peasant's birthright).
Also, try overlaying a contour map, or looking at windy.com every day for a month.
No winds on the English South coast? No winds on the Pennines?
More to the point, try overloading a map of Tory constituencies.
What fraction of the UK's wind-farms are in Tory constituencies in England?
Incredibly, it looks like < 10 per cent!
Well get out there and campaign for a Tory MP of your own, then. Bloody apathy.
I don't mind wind-farms, I object to zero benefit accruing to the locals.
They don't accrue to the locals anywhere, it's landlords and Windcos everywhere. Except praps in Highland Scotland where the crofters have done a buyout.
Not everywhere. Try France.
I'd say the issue is that Planning means they will be no quicker than other renewables, and economics / small turbines means they will hardly be cheaper for the consumer.
Dale Vince of Ecotricity was on Sky earlier demanding that letting him build onshore wind farms would reduce the price of electricity.
But AIUI in the UK unit, the price is set by the "marginal" unit ie the one that meets the last bit of demand, once the generation sources have been sorted from low to high by various criteria.
So he won't be meeting his claim unless he builds enough to swamp the market, or the regulatory setup is changed.
Does anyone know different, this being quite a complex subject?
If anyone wants to keep their bill down, it is back to the reduce / reuse coalface, applied to power and energy, as it has always been.
The price of any commodity is set by the marginal cost of supply, and electricity is no different.
However, a lot of wind (plus new nuclear) in the UK is on fixed price contracts. If a turbine produces 1KW of wind, then it will be paid the contracted price. So, the price of electricity may be high, or low, the price it attracts is fixed, and the grid operator basically guarantees to take it. Right now, that means that a lot of renewables is being sold at below market rates.
If you add additional supply, then unless it is at the very far right of the merit curve, then it will likely reduce prices, because it will displace another higher cost form of generation.
Just to think about this for a second, imagine that 10GW of power is demanded (and imagine that the wind and solar was *not* on fixed price contacts):
Solar will supply 1GW at a marginal cost of 1c/GW Wind will supply 2GW at a marginal cost of $1/GW Nuclear will supply 5GW at a marginal cost of $100/GW Gas will supply up to 10GW at a marginal cost of $200/GW
In which case the price will be $200/GW, and it will be provides by 1GW Solar, 2GW Wind, 5GW Nuclear, and 2GW gas.
Now imagine that demand drops to 8GW. Well, now the marginal producer is nuclear, and that means the price that everyone receives will drop to $100/GW.
Thanks for the comment.
The question then is will the new-in-a-rush onshore wind and the rest produce enough to make a meaningful price difference in the period of the current 'crisis', given that electricity is an interlinked European market (by region I think, and with a rash of new interconnectors boosting the linkage)? I don't see it.
As I suggested, I think that would require a change in regulation.
As we know, Iberia is currently seeking an adjustment to decouple their electricity market - with a higher share of renewable supply - from the wider European market.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
But isn't the BIB the responsibility/fault of the Welsh government?
Of course, it is the Welsh Government's feckin fault.
It is Colonialism 101 to have some Noddy Government in charge of the colony, peopled by the exploiters & the quarter-witted.
Who do we find on Bute Empire's advisory board?
Former Labour MEP, Derek Vaughan CBE. And here's a coincidence. Labour MS Jenny Rathbone’s partner also sits on the Board!
Which is lucky. Because Rathbone sits on the Senedd’s Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee.
Which means that the committee on which she sits makes the decisions on windfarms that benefit Bute Energy.
Jenny Rathbone is as authentically Welsh as only a multi-millionaire Corbynista and former Islington Councillor who had to apologise for antisemitic remarks can be.
Ah, so anything done by the UK government is colonialism and oppression, and everything done by the Welsh government is also colonialism and oppression.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion around at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
Le Pen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
I have a few quid on LePen. Partly because her election would be of a piece with the utterly shit few years we have had in world affairs. France may as well join the party and throw its own form of madness.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
None of my business, but of all the problems afflicting Wales it doesn't strike me that an insufficiency of trees is particularly high up the list.
Depending on the location, trees can be a good way of reducing the risk of flooding and landslips. Struggling to think of any downsides too.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
He is, by all accounts, as narcissistic in private as he appears in public life. I reckon he simply enjoys the grandeur of calling the Russian president during a major European war
He’s also been a reasonably competent French president at a difficult time. Not great but probably better than Hollande or Sarko
Hollande recently said there's no point talking to Putin because he lies all the time.
Note that is not Russia, but Donbass, doing that. Donetsk and Luhansk have far fewer cares than Russia for their population or their conscripts. There is almost no private sector to speak of and pretty much everyone has to work for the government or join the army.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
You make a great case for energy nationalisation, Robert.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
None of my business, but of all the problems afflicting Wales it doesn't strike me that an insufficiency of trees is particularly high up the list.
Beg to differ - trees are (a) useful industrally and good for self-sufficiency and rural employment (b) good for tourism, too(c) help with zero carbon, as well as (d) good for biodiversity. All fairly major aims of any UK government these days. And the money is spent mostly in Wales, assumigng the nurseries are there.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
I assume he is trying to evidence that, under him, France is globally relevant, and has a seat at the table when the big decisions are being made, whereas any of his challengers would be treated with less respect internationally. This is partially to fuel his own ego, but more so because he has judged that the French national psyche will receive this posturing well, due to decades of being ignored in favour of the Anglos dominating everything, even if it's ultimately un- or even counter-productive. From what little I know of the French, he may well be right.
Regardless of whether Le Pen wins or not, the era of European politics being dominated by the Franco-German motor seems to be coming to an end. Its moral legitimacy that rested on post-war reconciliation has been substantially eroded.
Yes the EU response has been left wanting because of a faulty energy policy by Western Europe as a whole, but your assertion that the Franco- German axis (unfortunate term, I know) will no longer be the driving force in Europe even in the event of a Macron victory is arrant nonsense. You, yourself realised that the Anglo -Franco- German driver was key to European stability prior to your own bizarre post Brexit epiphany, and don't forget we took ourselves out of that driving seat. Should LePen, with her empathy to Moscow win, you may well be right. The future of Europe will become uniquely Teutonic. It'll be like we never won WW2.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
I assume he is trying to evidence that, under him, France is globally relevant, and has a seat at the table when the big decisions are being made, whereas any of his challengers would be treated with less respect internationally. This is partially to fuel his own ego, but more so because he has judged that the French national psyche will receive this posturing well, due to decades of being ignored in favour of the Anglos dominating everything, even if it's ultimately un- or even counter-productive. From what little I know of the French, he may well be right.
The polls suggests that he was right, initially, when he was genuinely seen as being the French guy nobly trying for peace, potentially the saviour of Europe, calming Putin down.
However, since Putin went ahead and invaded anyway, despite Macron’s efforts, and embarrassing French intelligence which thought it was all a bluff, voters are understandably much less impressed, and have refocussed on domestic stuff, where Le Pen has wisely kept her attention
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
One issue with the French method of limiting bill rises on electricity, the state has also announced a recapitalisation of EDF so it can stand the losses of government policy and it will probably be back for more before long given the losses it will take. The French people will pay for it, just through some other means of stealth taxes.
Ms Pecresse is the only one of the candidates who seems to have picked up on this: she's pointed out that bills should be rising EUR400 or so, and are being held down artificially.
But that isn't getting much traction.
Ms Le Pen, on the other hand, supports the full renationalisation of the electricity sector, so that the nasty market doesn't have any annoying role in setting prices.
Sounds like just the sort of issue the erudite @NickPalmer was suggesting Labour should adopt. It would be widely trashed by the rightwing press, thus keeping it in the news and giving it the oxygen of publicity. The public, getting hammered by spiralling fuel bills, looks on and thinks: "Hmm, maybe it's not such a bad idea after all..."
(By the way Nick, I wish I had saved that post of yours the other night – one of the most insightful on PB for a good while).
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
Ah, shame. but thanks
All this is Ancient Sumerian to me, and way outside my skill set. Frustrating. I’d love to know if he really did nail the Brexit result
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
Yup, Le Pen is a Putin stooge, no question about it. Up there with Galloway and Griffin. Fuck her. No matter how much you dislike Macron, Le Pen is not the answer.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
It was open and shut in Trump's case too, even after he responded to Russia overstepping in Syria by bombing carefully selected targets to make them stop with the chemical weapons.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
The dynamics of the French elections change dramatically next week when the media will be concentrating on just two candidates .
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
Yup, Le Pen is a Putin stooge, no question about it. Up there with Galloway and Griffin. Fuck her. No matter how much you dislike Macron, Le Pen is not the answer.
Not sure that is how french voters, who are focused on domestic stuff, are seeing things.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
It was open and shut in Trump's case too, even after he responded to Russia overstepping in Syria by bombing carefully selected targets to make them stop with the chemical weapons.
I don't think that disqualifies him from historically being a Putin stooge, or even still being so.
Trumpism is also larger than Trump, and several of the Trumpite outriders, like Bannon or Marjorie Taylor Greene, are still sounding pretty supportive.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
Ah, shame. but thanks
All this is Ancient Sumerian to me, and way outside my skill set. Frustrating. I’d love to know if he really did nail the Brexit result
It's no so hard @Leon. Really quite as you'd expect. Just PM the smart people to catch up - if they're smart then that'll be enough.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Medicaid is the largest source of funding for medical and health-related services for people with low income in the United States, providing free health insurance to 74 million low-income and disabled people (23% of Americans) as of 2017,[3][4][5] as well as paying for half of all U.S. births in 2019.[6] It is a means-tested program that is jointly funded by the state and federal governments and managed by the states,[7] with each state currently having broad leeway to determine who is eligible for its implementation of the program. As of 2017, the total annual cost of Medicaid was just over $600 billion, of which the federal government contributed $375 billion and states an additional $230 billion.[6] States are not required to participate in the program, although all have since 1982. In general, Medicaid recipients must be U.S. citizens or qualified non-citizens, and may include low-income adults, their children, and people with certain disabilities,
Simplifying, an even larger program, Medicare, is for the old. (Some older people are on both programs.) Most of the employed get wildly varying insurance coverage through their employers (or, more rarely, through their unions). (Rahm Emanuel wanted to tax the "Cadillac" programs that were, in his view, too generous.) Both Medicare and Medicaid are "single payer" insurance programs, somewhat similar, as I understand it, to the French and German systems.
The system most like the UK's is a program run by the Veteran's Administration, for veterans, since the doctors and nurses are federal employees.
President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus also complicated [stalling peace talks] by demanding that his country be included in the negotiations.
NY Times blog
There's something odd going on with Lukashenko again, as if he's been licensed to go against Putin once more, by some power structure or other. Earlier on he made a strange point along the lines 'countries that are roping us in with the continuation of this war, mainly including the West."
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
Hawthorn ... they have really wicked prickles.
I hope we get a choice of tree -- I want a Great Orme Cotoneaster.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes, nothing particularly complicated but I can't see the input weights which strike me as fairly important.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
Yup, Le Pen is a Putin stooge, no question about it. Up there with Galloway and Griffin. Fuck her. No matter how much you dislike Macron, Le Pen is not the answer.
Not sure that is how french voters, who are focused on domestic stuff, are seeing things.
I have a grim feeling about where this is going.
The French want to give Macron a good kicking but will not elect Le Pen as President. She won’t be able to hide after the 1st round where the attention will be just on her and Macron .
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix have more credibility
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
Yup, Le Pen is a Putin stooge, no question about it. Up there with Galloway and Griffin. Fuck her. No matter how much you dislike Macron, Le Pen is not the answer.
Not sure that is how french voters, who are focused on domestic stuff, are seeing things.
I have a grim feeling about where this is going.
The French want to give Macron a good kicking but will not elect Le Pen as President. She won’t be able to hide after the 1st round where the attention will be just on her and Macron .
Yes, that's my view. Happily, the first round gives them the chance to do that before grudgingly voting for him when given a choice between him or Le Pen. The only danger being that they give him too good a kicking and round 2 ends up as Mechelon v Le Pen.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One of the ways that French election law operates differently from other countries is that opinion polls are banned for the final two days of the campaign. So the polls that will be published tomorrow will be the final ones and be those which will determine how well each pollster has done.
You can see the logic behind the French approach
I actually can't see the logic. I don't see why polls are ok until the final two days. Either they are ok or they aren't, surely?
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko · 3h In key cities of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, mass evacuation of civilians. Local authorities call an everyone to leave while it’s still possible. I’m afraid cities like Severodonetsk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk will be largely ruined. A big battle is gathering.
Terrible news. Sounds like the situation will get a lot worse before(if) it gets better in the East.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
Hawthorn ... they have really wicked prickles.
I hope we get a choice of tree -- I want a Great Orme Cotoneaster.
Is that the perfect size for the plans you have in mind for RT, as mentioned earlier?
I did like Guido of all people pointing out Boris and Sunak's attempt to say spouses off limits doesn't stack up, when financial interests of spouses/partners can be relevant. Indeed the government has legislated to make sure spousal interests are disclosable for local government for instance.
Off thread, I'm feeling irritable. I'm dallying with the private health system. I have an issue with my knee which is serious enough to be kinesthetic inhibiting but too trivial to be of interest to the NHS. I had thought the private system would be shorn of some of the major irritations of the NHS. And indeed the building I am in looks much more pleasant. But the seat I am sitting on is uncomfortable, I have been waiting for 40 minutes past my appointment time and Smooth FM is being played slightly too loudly. Why do medical establishments fear silence?
Off thread, I'm feeling irritable. I'm dallying with the private health system. I have an issue with my knee which is serious enough to be kinesthetic inhibiting but too trivial to be of interest to the NHS. I had thought the private system would be shorn of some of the major irritations of the NHS. And indeed the building I am in looks much more pleasant. But the seat I am sitting on is uncomfortable, I have been waiting for 40 minutes past my appointment time and Smooth FM is being played slightly too loudly. Why do medical establishments fear silence?
Kinesthetic should real lifestyle. Utterly mystifying autocorrect.
It's amazing to think that the French election (first round) is just three days away, and it's also extraordinary how Le Pen has surged in the last few weeks. Just six weeks ago, Macron was on 30% (give or take), while his opponents (Le Pen, Melenchon, Pecresse and Zemmour) all hovered in the mid teens.
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
I just cannot figure out why it would have taken this long for Le Pen to surge and Macron to drop, if that is what has occured. 85% chance still seems a solid guess.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
That's also still probably in the area by far the most likely to end the conflict, realistically. There's a certain amount of delusion at the moment that Russia can be pushed all the way back to the border without a deal, I think.
LePen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only seems to have half-recanted, if that.
The problem with the "Putin stooge" accusation is that it turns out that some of the people who accused others of being stooges were themselves Putin's useful idiots, while some of the people accused of being stooges turned out to be Putin's strongest opponents.
Looks pretty open and shut in Le Pen's case, though. Huge undeclared party loans and donations apparently straight from Russia, even open public support and advocacy for his ridiculously staged 'referendum' in Crimea.
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
As shown by differing reactions to this current situation, I would guess.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Off thread, I'm feeling irritable. I'm dallying with the private health system. I have an issue with my knee which is serious enough to be kinesthetic inhibiting but too trivial to be of interest to the NHS. I had thought the private system would be shorn of some of the major irritations of the NHS. And indeed the building I am in looks much more pleasant. But the seat I am sitting on is uncomfortable, I have been waiting for 40 minutes past my appointment time and Smooth FM is being played slightly too loudly. Why do medical establishments fear silence?
Don't worry, Angie Greaves will keep you company while you wait for the Surgeon, who will be along in a moment, once his shift at the NHS hospital is finished.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
Ah, shame. but thanks
All this is Ancient Sumerian to me, and way outside my skill set. Frustrating. I’d love to know if he really did nail the Brexit result
A German guy I know at work had some R code (I assume, big R guy) running on the Brexit polls and was predicting Brexit before the event. I didn't bet on it. Maybe I should ask him if he's done anything for the French presidential election...
Edit: quoting from the prediction, sent on the day of the referendum: The uncertainty of this estimate was explored by a simulation study estimating this model on N = 10,000 draws from the sampling space of the differences between the two vote shares and making a prediction for the 23rd of June 2016. The point estimate of this procedure was -1.655 (i.e. a lead for the leave camp) with a 95% confidence interval of [-1.643, -1.435]. The share of predictions with a lead for the remain camp was 0.0% (not a single prediction).
Sounds like just the sort of issue the erudite @NickPalmer was suggesting Labour should adopt. It would be widely trashed by the rightwing press, thus keeping it in the news and giving it the oxygen of publicity. The public, getting hammered by spiralling fuel bills, looks on and thinks: "Hmm, maybe it's not such a bad idea after all..."
(By the way Nick, I wish I had saved that post of yours the other night – one of the most insightful on PB for a good while).
The one about finding policies which have popular appeal but are just controversial enough to be attacked in the right-wing media? It's a tricky art but great if you can do it!
Are you feeling better? You sounded in a bad way a day or two back.
Comments
Also, pretty ballsy taking on tanks with a BTR.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1512060297607065602
Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage...
Tugendhat = St.Pauls, AGC, Father son of immigrants.
Wallace is posher.
Still value in the Next PM market even though he's clear fav now.
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1512074708002361354
Now, Macron has fallen back, while Le Pen has picked up from both Zemmour and Pecresse.
Come Sunday, it is possible that Le Pen pips Macron at the post to claim a first round lead.
My view is that Macron's support is shallow. But he is also - improbably - running his best favourable/unfavourables for three and a half years at a modest -12. And that -12 is less than half Le Pen's -26.
If the people who don't like Le Pen hold their noses and vote Macron, then he will probably win by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, if they say 'a plague on both your houses', then Le Pen could certainly take it.
The most likely result, to me, is that Macron comes through. I would reckon he is about an 85% chance to book a second Presidential term.
Why?
Well, firstly the polls - although they have narrowed - continue to show Macron 5-6 points clear. That's not a small lead. That's a pretty comfortable victory in the US Senate. Now, could Le Pen continue to power ahead? Sure. But getting each incremental voter is a little harder.
And then there's the fact that Le Pen flattered to deceive in 2017. She managed plenty of polls in the low 40s last time around, but ended up with just 34% of the vote. Now, it may be that polling has changed this time around... or that circumstances change... but systematic polling errors can continue for very long periods, and I haven't really seen any reason why she should not underperform this time around either.
Then there are a few areas where Macron is lucky. For a start, the French aren't seeing their electricity bills soar. As the French government owns EDF, it has limited rate rises to a very modest EUR37 increase to bills for the whole year. And the French typically heat their homes with electricity, so there's no big jump from gas prices there either.
Now, I don't think Ms Le Pen is some bogeywoman. I think she's a woman who profoundly misdiagnoses France's problems, which (for the record) are not that the French government is insufficiently involved in the economy. She's far more Melenchon or Foot economically, than she is Thatcher.
But I think - if the center comes out to vote - she will struggle to top 45-46% in the second round. And I have therefore taken the crazy step of betting on Macron (well technically selling Le Pen), now that his price has come in so far.
I look forward to seeing some credible commentary on the non-dom issue.
The underlying problem for me is still that the Indy has exaggerated its non-story. The headline, which is what will be read and has gone around the media, is a claim of fact:
"Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s millionaire wife avoids tax through non-dom status"
And the article is full only of speculation.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-akshata-murthy-non-dom-wife-tax-b2052251.html
The Indy could have chosen to do some analysis / journalism to stand up their story; they chose not to do so.
If they have other stories that they can stand up, then that will be interesting.
I'd watch out for freelance mountain-bikers creating a course full of dips and jumps.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
But that isn't getting much traction.
Ms Le Pen, on the other hand, supports the full renationalisation of the electricity sector, so that the nasty market doesn't have any annoying role in setting prices.
It is Macron 65.9% Pecresse 34.1% and he also comfortably beats Zemmour 60.8% to 39.2%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512064596915359764?s=20&t=VhXSY0eZG---rAa1_aveAg
TLDR: he gives Le Pen a 55% chance of winning (ie she’s now the favourite) tho his models actually say she is much more likely to win than that - 93%! -, he is just uncomfortable being so outside received opinion
https://kirkegaard.substack.com/p/forecasts-for-the-2022-french-election
The French have a good reputation for innovative political change. It'll be interesting to see what they come up with.
Macron is desperate to be seen as some kind of uber diplomatic peacemaker who can show that France is still globally relevant. Instead he's just being used by Putin as a conduit for false information (he told Macron that he would pull back his forces days before the invasion which fooled some more dimwitted intelligence agencies in Europe) or as a route to a ceasefire style "peace" deal which will be forced onto Ukraine and then business as usual until Putin wants to annex more of it.
He's a liability and while I think there probably are votes in appeasing Putin, Macron has charted a path that won't win him Russia hawks but also neutralises many of the Putin attacks that Le Pen would have expected to receive.
Adding another couple of % to the French national debt won't have the eye-watering inflationary/consumer demand crunch that the UK's eye-watering domestic energy hikes will though. It's also better for their manufacturing.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
If that is the case it maybe slightly benefits Le Pen, who is seen as more engaged on domestic issues? Even as Macron calls everyone in the world
It is Colonialism 101 to have some Noddy Government in charge of the colony, peopled by the exploiters & the quarter-witted.
Who do we find on Bute Empire's advisory board?
Former Labour MEP, Derek Vaughan CBE. And here's a coincidence. Labour MS Jenny Rathbone’s partner also sits on the Board!
https://tinyurl.com/33ppsnrb
Which is lucky. Because Rathbone sits on the Senedd’s Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee.
Which means that the committee on which she sits makes the decisions on windfarms that benefit Bute Energy.
Jenny Rathbone is as authentically Welsh as only a multi-millionaire Corbynista and former Islington Councillor who had to apologise for antisemitic remarks can be.
I'm also very suspicious of the guy's methodology, because he's assuming that momentum continues, and there's a lot of statistical evidence that (outside of party primaries) that last week (or last month's) move in polling has no influence on the likely future direction. If you improved your position two points last month, it's just as likely you fall back this week.
The French have managed to organise the decorations.
He’s also been a reasonably competent French president at a difficult time. Not great but probably better than Hollande or Sarko
His move at the end to simply slash the chances of Le Pen winning because he is so embarrassed by how out of whack they seem, also suggests someone not entirely confident of his models.
Still, interesting.
This is staggering if true:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-deploying-soldiers-as-old-as-60-and-giving-conscripts-19th-century-rifles/ar-AAVSffk?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0b5493fcd5774fb6a985c2472f03453e
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1506637958295785472
Le Pen is clearly different, though. She's been a clear Putin stooge for years, and only recently seems to have half-recanted, if that.
This is the Danish guy’s prediction for Brexit, buried in code which is impenetrable to me
https://github.com/Deleetdk/brexit_model/commit/07bbb3a66635b3793a4b6d5eaba1f48367acb4db
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
The question then is will the new-in-a-rush onshore wind and the rest produce enough to make a meaningful price difference in the period of the current 'crisis', given that electricity is an interlinked European market (by region I think, and with a rash of new interconnectors boosting the linkage)? I don't see it.
As I suggested, I think that would require a change in regulation.
As we know, Iberia is currently seeking an adjustment to decouple their electricity market - with a higher share of renewable supply - from the wider European market.
Genius! What a way to argue your case...
Struggling to think of any downsides too.
Mon Dieu!
Several steps further than the Conservative Friends of Russia and Vote Leave.
GitHub is a code repository. It just stores your code and allows others to see that.
However, since Putin went ahead and invaded anyway, despite Macron’s efforts, and embarrassing French intelligence which thought it was all a bluff, voters are understandably much less impressed, and have refocussed on domestic stuff, where Le Pen has wisely kept her attention
(By the way Nick, I wish I had saved that post of yours the other night – one of the most insightful on PB for a good while).
All this is Ancient Sumerian to me, and way outside my skill set. Frustrating. I’d love to know if he really did nail the Brexit result
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
NY Times blog
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DILBzfbH__8
I have a grim feeling about where this is going.
Trumpism is also larger than Trump, and several of the Trumpite outriders, like Bannon or Marjorie Taylor Greene, are still sounding pretty supportive.
He'd be easy pickings for a Herefordian snatch squad.
For example, Medicaid is a system for the poor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid Simplifying, an even larger program, Medicare, is for the old. (Some older people are on both programs.) Most of the employed get wildly varying insurance coverage through their employers (or, more rarely, through their unions). (Rahm Emanuel wanted to tax the "Cadillac" programs that were, in his view, too generous.) Both Medicare and Medicaid are "single payer" insurance programs, somewhat similar, as I understand it, to the French and German systems.
The system most like the UK's is a program run by the Veteran's Administration, for veterans, since the doctors and nurses are federal employees.
Note, please, that I said systems.
I hope we get a choice of tree -- I want a Great Orme Cotoneaster.
If he aced it, then his French predix have more credibility
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
@afneil
·
15m
Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
https://twitter.com/afneil
You can see the logic behind the French approach
I actually can't see the logic. I don't see why polls are ok until the final two days. Either they are ok or they aren't, surely?
He appears every bit as much the bizarre fantasist as Putin himself.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1512037266482475009
Edit: quoting from the prediction, sent on the day of the referendum:
The uncertainty of this estimate was explored by a simulation study estimating this model on N = 10,000 draws from the sampling space of the differences between the two vote shares and making a prediction for the 23rd of June 2016. The point estimate of this procedure was -1.655 (i.e. a lead for the leave camp) with a 95% confidence interval of [-1.643, -1.435]. The share of predictions with a lead for the remain camp was 0.0% (not a single prediction).
Different estimation method, so different guy.
Are you feeling better? You sounded in a bad way a day or two back.