Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
Off thread, I'm feeling irritable. I'm dallying with the private health system. I have an issue with my knee which is serious enough to be kinesthetic inhibiting but too trivial to be of interest to the NHS. I had thought the private system would be shorn of some of the major irritations of the NHS. And indeed the building I am in looks much more pleasant. But the seat I am sitting on is uncomfortable, I have been waiting for 40 minutes past my appointment time and Smooth FM is being played slightly too loudly. Why do medical establishments fear silence?
Kinesthetic should real lifestyle. Utterly mystifying autocorrect.
I've had some baffling ones over the years, as I'm sure we all have, as well as baffling inability to autocorrect even if only a letter out sometimes.
The most dispiriting is when I had a work email embarrassingly accidentally sent before intended, and it was totally incomprehensible and nonsensical...but the recipient said they agreed with it. Given it made no sense, I can only assume that means they never actually read any of my emails.
President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus also complicated [stalling peace talks] by demanding that his country be included in the negotiations.
NY Times blog
Given his units don't appear to have been involved as much as Russia would like, beyond serving as a staging area, Putin would probably be annoyed at that.
Sounds like just the sort of issue the erudite @NickPalmer was suggesting Labour should adopt. It would be widely trashed by the rightwing press, thus keeping it in the news and giving it the oxygen of publicity. The public, getting hammered by spiralling fuel bills, looks on and thinks: "Hmm, maybe it's not such a bad idea after all..."
(By the way Nick, I wish I had saved that post of yours the other night – one of the most insightful on PB for a good while).
The one about finding policies which have popular appeal but are just controversial enough to be attacked in the right-wing media? It's a tricky art but great if you can do it!
Are you feeling better? You sounded in a bad way a day or two back.
I've never been particularly bad – it was just like a moderate cold for me. Much better now thanks sir.
Off thread, I'm feeling irritable. I'm dallying with the private health system. I have an issue with my knee which is serious enough to be kinesthetic inhibiting but too trivial to be of interest to the NHS. I had thought the private system would be shorn of some of the major irritations of the NHS. And indeed the building I am in looks much more pleasant. But the seat I am sitting on is uncomfortable, I have been waiting for 40 minutes past my appointment time and Smooth FM is being played slightly too loudly. Why do medical establishments fear silence?
Sorry to hear that.
I'm also irritable today, as half my blasted house is still stuck in the parental estate, so I can't do any serious works against my potential new energy bills - which have been waiting on the stocks for a year now.
So apols to anyone I have been a bit sharp-elbowed with today.
I should have added that there are many other health care systems in the US. For example, when Mitch Daniels was governor of Indiana, he brought in a program of health savings accounts for state employees. Briefly, they received a fixed sum every year to be used, at their discretion for medical expenses. If they didn't use it, the money accumulated in the account. It was extremely popular, and appears to have reduced costs, since employees had an incentive to avoid unnecessary care -- and to shop for the best prices.
(It was added on to a more standard insurance plan.)
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
Hawthorn ... they have really wicked prickles.
I hope we get a choice of tree -- I want a Great Orme Cotoneaster.
Is that the perfect size for the plans you have in mind for RT, as mentioned earlier?
For that I might recommend Hedgehog Holly.
Known as Ilex Ferox. The distinctive being it also has spines on the faces of the leaves.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
Police have raided the headquarters of Unite, one of the UK's largest and most powerful trade unions.
Sky News understands 15 to 20 officers attended the search yesterday at the union's central London headquarters and left the building with boxes of files, paper and a computer.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
Ah, shame. but thanks
All this is Ancient Sumerian to me, and way outside my skill set. Frustrating. I’d love to know if he really did nail the Brexit result
A German guy I know at work had some R code (I assume, big R guy) running on the Brexit polls and was predicting Brexit before the event. I didn't bet on it. Maybe I should ask him if he's done anything for the French presidential election...
Edit: quoting from the prediction, sent on the day of the referendum: The uncertainty of this estimate was explored by a simulation study estimating this model on N = 10,000 draws from the sampling space of the differences between the two vote shares and making a prediction for the 23rd of June 2016. The point estimate of this procedure was -1.655 (i.e. a lead for the leave camp) with a 95% confidence interval of [-1.643, -1.435]. The share of predictions with a lead for the remain camp was 0.0% (not a single prediction).
Different estimation method, so different guy.
Worth noting the prediction 95% CI did not include the actual result (not even close). So fail Or the 1 in 20 times that happens, of course...
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
From the Atlas poll which showed a slim lead for Le Pen in the second round .
They asked should France leave the EU .
No 71.7%
Yes 17.3%
Although she’s now ditched her Frexit as it cost her last time her new policy is still very antagonistic towards the EU.
That's a winning strategy in several countries - antagonistic, so long as people don't think that bleeds into any actual desire to leave.
It’s up to Macron to ensure that he puts enough doubt into voters minds that she still wants a Frexit . Personally I think she’s maxed out her polling and the annoyance with Macron is inflating her polling and the only way is down once people move from the abstract to actually putting her in the Elysee .
From the Atlas poll which showed a slim lead for Le Pen in the second round .
They asked should France leave the EU .
No 71.7%
Yes 17.3%
Although she’s now ditched her Frexit as it cost her last time her new policy is still very antagonistic towards the EU.
De Gaulle was very antagonistic to the “EU”. Empty chaired it at one point.
Again: my supposition is that a female De Gaulle is what Le Pen would aim to be, with an added dash of ethnocentrism and culture war (rather than the actual Algerian war)
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
That would be pretty funny in fairness.
It has to be said the pro-Putin effect on the top table of European politics might be quite a lot less funny, though. With added French race riots to serve.
Police have raided the headquarters of Unite, one of the UK's largest and most powerful trade unions.
Sky News understands 15 to 20 officers attended the search yesterday at the union's central London headquarters and left the building with boxes of files, paper and a computer.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
And deep in France....JeanT has a few pastis, wanders down the polling station and decides on impulse to vote for Le Pen, comes home and is horrified when she wins, telling everyone il a ruiné sa patrie...then spends the next four years as her 'fanatique numéro un'.....
Asked what difference killing Sir David would make, he said: "For one, he can't vote again. "If he had previous for doing votes like that he won't do it in the future, and perhaps send a message to his colleagues." He added: "So hopefully, he won't be able to harm Muslims in that regard."
So not because Angela Rayner said that Tories were scum.
I really don't think that is what most people were suggesting when the murder made them reflect on the separate issue of civility and animosity in politics. I found some of the dismissal of that issue at the time to severely miss the point, even being deliberately obtuse from some quarters, mocking the idea people might think it an apposite time to raise it.
A very bad thing happened. If that made people reflect on their behaviour and the hostility of our political discourse, even though the very bad thing was not prompted in this case by it, I don't see the problem. It's never the wrong time to be concerned about rising tribalism and hostility.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Whilst I do understand the sentiment, a wind map might reveal why.
But there should be local business rates, surely? If not, why not?
There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.
It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.
And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.
So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.
Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
Off Topic
Hmmm.
I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.
The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
I am shocked, Comrade.
A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.
It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.
"From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].
I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.
What are you doing with your tree?
Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.
Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
You are going to assault Mark Drakeford with an unlubricated tree that he has given to you ?
I am going nowhere near Mr Drakeford.
My advice will be exclusively on how he can administer self-insertion of his domestically sourced hawthorne or hazel trees.
Hawthorn ... they have really wicked prickles.
I hope we get a choice of tree -- I want a Great Orme Cotoneaster.
Is that the perfect size for the plans you have in mind for RT, as mentioned earlier?
For that I might recommend Hedgehog Holly.
Known as Ilex Ferox. The distinctive being it also has spines on the faces of the leaves.
Or Blackthorn.
Perhaps, Monkey puzzle. It looks a painful insertion.
Of course, it is Chilean, and not native. , But, Drakeford, as befits a good Socialist, is very pro-Chile.
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
I was hit by the curse of the new thread before but I wrote this as it’s all a bit of a grey area.
“Domicile is a weird one. For example if you are claiming non-Dom and the tax bods find that you’ve bought yourself a nice burial plot in say, Richmond Yorkshire, then they can say “hang on - you really do see this as your home”.
It’s not just about where you live and educate kids etc. it’s possible that Mr and Mrs Sunak could say that Mrs S is keeping her Indian situation as is because they made a deal that he gets to have his political career and when it’s over (maybe this year…..) they will be moving the family to India so that their children benefit from absorbing that side of the family culture - very hard to prove otherwise until after it doesn’t happen.”
So it’s not altogether weird that the Chancellor’s wife doesn’t necessarily have long term settled plans to live in the UK. They might have a family plan to move to India, or do a Clegg and move to California.
They are an immensely wealthy “global” family who will have the ability and opportunity and maybe even the desire to spend their twilight years elsewhere than sunny Yorkshire. So she does really have every right to leave her future options open.
Of course she has every right to do that, and so does he
They do not have the right to ignore political reality: which is that, if you are the Chancellor raising taxes on poor people, you can’t be in a family worth seventy trillion pounds where your bazillionaire wife is literally dodging UK tax (albeit legally) via a scheme which has been infamously controversial for years, and which has caused grief to much lower profile Tory MPs already
The optics are simply appalling, and damage the party
The Sunaks should have chosen: political career leading to Number 11, or enormous, cleverly conserved private wealth? You can’t have both
Well you can, if you settle for a 10% discount on the still utterly enormous wealth, and some self-discipline about how you spend it. 3 UK homes and 1 Californian bad, 2 UK homes (never mind how flash) and just discreetly renting abroad, fine. That's what is so stupid about it.
As always the presentation diverges from a fair analysis
- Family home (Kensington I think) - Constituency home (like every MP) - Work home at No11 (which press says he barely uses) - Holiday home in California
So if it wasn’t for his job he would effectively have a family home and a holiday home. For someone in his wealth bracket that is very very modest. I’m sure they are very nice and all that, but it’s not particularly egregious
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
That would be pretty funny in fairness.
You've got a sick sense of humour.
As whisperingoracle notes the actual outcome of it would not be funny at all. Le Pen is not her dad, but she is still far worse than Macron. But people arrogantly not voting - or even voting opposite to what they actually want - because they think the outcome is certain to go their way and being wrong about that is darkly comic.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
And deep in France....JeanT has a few pastis, wanders down the polling station and decides on impulse to vote for Le Pen, comes home and is horrified when she wins, telling everyone il a ruiné sa patrie...then spends the next four years as her 'fanatique numéro un'.....
Does JeanT have multiple identities on " le jeux d'argent politique"?
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
He is, by all accounts, as narcissistic in private as he appears in public life. I reckon he simply enjoys the grandeur of calling the Russian president during a major European war
He’s also been a reasonably competent French president at a difficult time. Not great but probably better than Hollande or Sarko
Hollande recently said there's no point talking to Putin because he lies all the time.
Note that is not Russia, but Donbass, doing that. Donetsk and Luhansk have far fewer cares than Russia for their population or their conscripts. There is almost no private sector to speak of and pretty much everyone has to work for the government or join the army.
Yes, and its worth noting that the sell declared state 'Donetsk People's Republic' which is fighting alongside the Russians. has released its own casualty fingers. and it seems that the memo about publicly under-reporting you losses.
At the start of the conflict they clamed to have 20,000 solders, and on there own website clam to have suffered 767 dead and 3,559 Wounded up to 31 March. that adds up to 4,326 and if accurate would be 22% of there starting strength. That does not include the last 7 day.
Is this credible? well it seems unlikely that they would admit a higher casuty number than real number, and the conscription of 60 year olds would suggest there armed forces are very stretched.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2
This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won
However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
At this point Macron needs those debates !
Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
Maybe the phone calls outweigh the other stuff... or maybe the French would rather vote with their pockets to remove sanctions on Russia. Maybe there are simply more votes in appeasing Putin.
I just have this vision of him sitting on the phone listening to Putin rant for 2hrs without him ever getting a word in edgeways.
It does raise the question of why he bothers.
I mean, I get that before the invasion, he was doing his "I'm a big statesman trying to avoid war" thing (presumably backed up by the appalling French intelligence estimates that suggested that Russia was not going to invade).
But now?
It must be clear to him that Putin is simply deranged, and that it is the Ukrainians who must choose when (if) to come to the negotiating table. What possible benefit does he derive, especially as he's combining the phone calls acting tough with sanctions and expelling diplomats.
Some French diplomats have been happy to float ideas for a deal even if it "rewards the aggression":
Neutralization of Ukraine under international guarantees, referendum in the Donbas, loss of Crimea may be the elements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It rewards the agression, would say some, but I don’t see any other way to put a quick end to the slaughter.
Anything for a 'quick' end, as though a swift end is always the best option. Ukrainians may or may not feel that extended sacrifice would be a better option than the swiftest option (as Russian trolls have stated, the quickest end of all is surrender).
Interesting read. As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread ... https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995713135443969
TL;DR: Western media and Russian propaganda wildly inflate the problem of the Ukrainian far-right. The coverage fails to put the Ukrainian far-right in the larger context. Once done, it's evident that it is a tiny problem compared to Russian and even European right-wing movements
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
That would be pretty funny in fairness.
Ah yes, "funny". That one.
Only on PB.
I'm surprised people have reacted so sensitively to this remark, it was hardly an endorsement of that outcome. People acting stupidly is often funny in theory, if not in reality. If people vote contrary to what they actually want that's terrible, in practice, but definitely amusing in theory, because it is so damn stupid. People should never vote a certain way to annoy or punish someone they don't like, if they cannot stomach the alternative.
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
I was hit by the curse of the new thread before but I wrote this as it’s all a bit of a grey area.
“Domicile is a weird one. For example if you are claiming non-Dom and the tax bods find that you’ve bought yourself a nice burial plot in say, Richmond Yorkshire, then they can say “hang on - you really do see this as your home”.
It’s not just about where you live and educate kids etc. it’s possible that Mr and Mrs Sunak could say that Mrs S is keeping her Indian situation as is because they made a deal that he gets to have his political career and when it’s over (maybe this year…..) they will be moving the family to India so that their children benefit from absorbing that side of the family culture - very hard to prove otherwise until after it doesn’t happen.”
So it’s not altogether weird that the Chancellor’s wife doesn’t necessarily have long term settled plans to live in the UK. They might have a family plan to move to India, or do a Clegg and move to California.
They are an immensely wealthy “global” family who will have the ability and opportunity and maybe even the desire to spend their twilight years elsewhere than sunny Yorkshire. So she does really have every right to leave her future options open.
Of course she has every right to do that, and so does he
They do not have the right to ignore political reality: which is that, if you are the Chancellor raising taxes on poor people, you can’t be in a family worth seventy trillion pounds where your bazillionaire wife is literally dodging UK tax (albeit legally) via a scheme which has been infamously controversial for years, and which has caused grief to much lower profile Tory MPs already
The optics are simply appalling, and damage the party
The Sunaks should have chosen: political career leading to Number 11, or enormous, cleverly conserved private wealth? You can’t have both
Well you can, if you settle for a 10% discount on the still utterly enormous wealth, and some self-discipline about how you spend it. 3 UK homes and 1 Californian bad, 2 UK homes (never mind how flash) and just discreetly renting abroad, fine. That's what is so stupid about it.
As always the presentation diverges from a fair analysis
- Family home (Kensington I think) - Constituency home (like every MP) - Work home at No11 (which press says he barely uses) - Holiday home in California
So if it wasn’t for his job he would effectively have a family home and a holiday home. For someone in his wealth bracket that is very very modest. I’m sure they are very nice and all that, but it’s not particularly egregious
The dynamics of the French elections change dramatically next week when the media will be concentrating on just two candidates .
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
The French don't like to be thought of as fascists which is why they will do what they always do and make sure Le Pen is beaten handsomely whoever the opponent.
To Macron by at least 10 points would be my guess.
There are also 17 nations who did not tern up to vote at all.
But basically the 24 states who voted to keep Russia on the human Rights council, are basically the nations who have such bad human Rights abuses themselves that they what to keep Russia there to help cover up there own sins.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
And deep in France....JeanT has a few pastis, wanders down the polling station and decides on impulse to vote for Le Pen, comes home and is horrified when she wins, telling everyone il a ruiné sa patrie...then spends the next four years as her 'fanatique numéro un'.....
Does JeanT have multiple identities on " le jeux d'argent politique"?
There are also 17 nations who did not tern up to vote at all.
But basically the 24 states who voted to keep Russia on the human Rights council, are basically the nations who have such bad human Rights abuses themselves that they what to keep Russia there to help cover up there own sins.
Ethiopia on the list I see. Presumably as while the PM has had plenty of accolades, the recent civil war has led to the government being put on a naughty list.
At the risk of triggering people, it'd be funnier if some of the really bad nations voted against Russia on this instance, out of sheer hypocrisy.
The dynamics of the French elections change dramatically next week when the media will be concentrating on just two candidates .
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
The French don't like to be thought of as fascists which is why they will do what they always do and make sure Le Pen is beaten handsomely whoever the opponent.
To Macron by at least 10 points would be my guess.
Do you return to Blighty if La Belle France elects a Na... I mean Mme LePen?
So he successfully predicted a narrow Brexit victory against the consensus. Which means we must give his predix about the French election some credence
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
The dynamics of the French elections change dramatically next week when the media will be concentrating on just two candidates .
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
The French don't like to be thought of as fascists which is why they will do what they always do and make sure Le Pen is beaten handsomely whoever the opponent.
To Macron by at least 10 points would be my guess.
It was 66/34 last time. My initial position was Le Pen would be doing well to get into the low 40s, and I've not really changed that, simply as the surge has seemed out of nowhere.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
I don’t think clear documentation immediately renders it bullshit. Just difficult for others to use.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls. I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
Asked what difference killing Sir David would make, he said: "For one, he can't vote again. "If he had previous for doing votes like that he won't do it in the future, and perhaps send a message to his colleagues." He added: "So hopefully, he won't be able to harm Muslims in that regard."
So not because Angela Rayner said that Tories were scum.
I really don't think that is what most people were suggesting when the murder made them reflect on the separate issue of civility and animosity in politics. I found some of the dismissal of that issue at the time to severely miss the point, even being deliberately obtuse from some quarters, mocking the idea people might think it an apposite time to raise it.
A very bad thing happened. If that made people reflect on their behaviour and the hostility of our political discourse, even though the very bad thing was not prompted in this case by it, I don't see the problem. It's never the wrong time to be concerned about rising tribalism and hostility.
That is correct @kle4 but what I think people were pointing out at the time was that the whole “the hostility of our political discourse” debate was being driven by a desire to obscure what the attack actually was namely (yet again) another terrorist attack perpetrated by a radicalised Islamist.
It was the same modus operandi used when the three gay men were killed in Reading - talk about mental health, don’t mention about the possibility of radicalism and then slowly let the truth seep out when the outrage has died down. I doubt if the killer in either case had been a white neo-nazi we would have been having a wider debate about civility or the need to support mental health.
There is nothing wrong trying to dampen down hostility in political discourse but there is in spinning a disingenuous discourse to avoid talking another other topics.
Asked what difference killing Sir David would make, he said: "For one, he can't vote again. "If he had previous for doing votes like that he won't do it in the future, and perhaps send a message to his colleagues." He added: "So hopefully, he won't be able to harm Muslims in that regard."
So not because Angela Rayner said that Tories were scum.
I really don't think that is what most people were suggesting when the murder made them reflect on the separate issue of civility and animosity in politics. I found some of the dismissal of that issue at the time to severely miss the point, even being deliberately obtuse from some quarters, mocking the idea people might think it an apposite time to raise it.
A very bad thing happened. If that made people reflect on their behaviour and the hostility of our political discourse, even though the very bad thing was not prompted in this case by it, I don't see the problem. It's never the wrong time to be concerned about rising tribalism and hostility.
That is correct kle4 but what I think people were pointing out at the time was that the whole “the hostility of our political discourse” debate was being driven by a desire to obscure what the attack actually was namely (yet again) another terrorist attack perpetrated by a radicalised Islamist.
It was the same modus operandi used when the three gay men were killed in Reading - talk about mental health, don’t mention about the possibility of radicalism and then slowly let the truth seep out when the outrage has died down. I doubt if the killer in either case had been a white neo-nazi we would have been having a wider debate about civility or the need to support mental health.
There is nothing wrong trying to dampen down hostility in political discourse but there is in spinning a disingenuous discourse to avoid talking another other topics.
I think that can and does happen (careful vaguness in stories can hide a lot, see also when someone says something offensive but we are not told what, so cannot tell how offensive it was), but I personally didn't get that impression at the time in this case, as some of the reaction against the discourse comments was a smug 'that has nothing to do with this, people are just jumping on it for their own reasons' sort of thing, rather than 'You are just trying to divert from the motive of the attacker'.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
The dynamics of the French elections change dramatically next week when the media will be concentrating on just two candidates .
The debates are going to be much more important this time and where I expect Le Pens momentum will come to an end .
She has a lot of baggage which she’s managed to steer clear of in the run upto the 1st round but Macron whatever you think of him is by far the better debater and will make sure the French are reminded of her past .
The French don't like to be thought of as fascists which is why they will do what they always do and make sure Le Pen is beaten handsomely whoever the opponent.
I wonder how that tendency would express itself if Le Pen did win.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Oh come on, it's all fairly straightforward : - Natural human tendency to want disasters to happen for the spectacle value - We dislike the French and, while we would normally baulk at wishing leaders like Le Pen on them, this is mitigated by the fact that she'll only get in if a majority votes for her - We want to know what would happen, mostly so we can be reassured it's not a good idea, and partially just in case it turns out to be not all that bad, we can relax slightly about it ever happening here
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
The leaders of the two largest parties in the most recent UK election were Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn...
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls. I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
It’s there in his tweets in June 2016
As I said before it just seems to be extrapolation. Not Einstein. Nonetheless it is worth noting that he got it right with this simple method
To really impress he’d have to do this for half a dozen votes or elections and get it right more often than not
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls. I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
I did a spreadsheet for the EU referendum results night, but it didn't predict what would happen overall, it just attempted to say how each area would vote if the result was 50/50 overall.
Andrew Neil @afneil · 15m Le Pen is certainly talking a lot more about cost of living than Islam or immigration. But Macron hasn’t really been campaigning. Only one major rally (in Paris, which he wins anyway). He’s tried to be above the fray. Looks like backfiring. He will be campaigning before round 2.
One way Le pen could win is if enough people think Oh she surely won’t win, so I’m safe in voting for her just to annoy Macron
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
And deep in France....JeanT has a few pastis, wanders down the polling station and decides on impulse to vote for Le Pen, comes home and is horrified when she wins, telling everyone il a ruiné sa patrie...then spends the next four years as her 'fanatique numéro un'.....
Does JeanT have multiple identities on " le jeux d'argent politique"?
Beaucoup....'Byronique', 'MadameG', 'Lyon'....
What's "hand-knapped flint sex toy" in French? Mine is pretty rusty. (My French, you filthy so-and-so's.)
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
And Britain is different how?
A Macron/Le Pen choice is no different and maybe even better than the Johnson/Corbyn one was.
Macron is a pain but less inept and malign than Johnson. Le Pen is a crypto-fascist but probably more “reality-based” than Corbyn.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
The leaders of the two largest parties in the most recent UK election were Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn...
Yes, but we can at least pretend we were voting for Joe/Jane Bloggs MP, who is a decent sort even if their leader isn't.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
The leaders of the two largest parties in the most recent UK election were Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn...
Yes, but we can at least pretend we were voting for Joe/Jane Bloggs MP, who is a decent sort even if their leader isn't.
You're right. People were ACTUALLY voting for Burgon and Francois..
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
The laws of physics are the same everywhere. Floaters gonna float.
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
Yes. Why are the likes of Barbados and St Kitts abstaining on this?
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
The Russian social media operation have done a superb job of weaponising discontent over Iraq and Afghanistan all over the world.
The first episode of Slow Horses was really v impressive.
Makes the Ipcress File look like the utter (but mildly diverting) tosh that it is.
But can you break your breakfast egg with one hand?
Who is that berk they cast as the Ipcress lead? I posted on here a week or so ago that he has the charisma of a third-rate Herman von Rompuy impersonator.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls. I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
It’s there in his tweets in June 2016
As I said before it just seems to be extrapolation. Not Einstein. Nonetheless it is worth noting that he got it right with this simple method
To really impress he’d have to do this for half a dozen votes or elections and get it right more often than not
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
Yes. Why are the likes of Barbados and St Kitts abstaining on this?
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Interestingly, then, all the Transcaucus countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) voted to boot Russia.
Basically, as Leon said the other day, African countries saying "We see Europeans are bombing each other, nothing to do with us". It's payback for the collective shrug with which we greeted the massacres in DRC, Ethiopia and elsewhere.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt in her extremity, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though ) . "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
Yes. Why are the likes of Barbados and St Kitts abstaining on this?
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
The Russian social media operation have done a superb job of weaponising discontent over Iraq and Afghanistan all over the world.
Russia? Most of them are Chinese client states.
That certainly explains the Caribbean nonsense (save Cuba).
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Interestingly, then, all the Transcaucus countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) voted to boot Russia.
Basically, as Leon said the other day, African countries saying "We see Europeans are bombing each other, nothing to do with us". It's payback for the collective shrug with which we greeted the massacres in DRC, Ethiopia and elsewhere.
Agreed. A lot of schadenfreude and stick it to the man thinking going on.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
Dunno. Did Patel grow up as the heir apparent to a literal fascist?
The first episode of Slow Horses was really v impressive.
Makes the Ipcress File look like the utter (but mildly diverting) tosh that it is.
But can you break your breakfast egg with one hand?
Who is that berk they cast as the Ipcress lead? I posted on here a week or so ago that he has the charisma of a third-rate Herman von Rompuy impersonator.
A chap called Joe Cole, not to be confused with the soccer star with the same name.
The series is beautifully shot but, by god it’s dull. My wife has not stayed awake through a single episode.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
And Britain is different how?
A Macron/Le Pen choice is no different and maybe even better than the Johnson/Corbyn one was.
Macron is a pain but less inept and malign than Johnson. Le Pen is a crypto-fascist but probably more “reality-based” than Corbyn.
Macron has a bit of technocratic polish, but is he really less inept than Johnson? He has a litany of failures on his record, particularly on foreign policy. His handling of covid wasn't any more impressive and arguably nothing was more malign than deliberately trashing the AstraZeneca vaccine.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Interestingly, then, all the Transcaucus countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) voted to boot Russia.
It’s quite a handy list: in terms of all the countries in the world you would never want to live, with the exception of Thailand, Singapore and just maybe Bhutan?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
"A choice of two deeply flawed characters" seems to have become the default status for Western democracies in general.
The first episode of Slow Horses was really v impressive.
Makes the Ipcress File look like the utter (but mildly diverting) tosh that it is.
But can you break your breakfast egg with one hand?
Who is that berk they cast as the Ipcress lead? I posted on here a week or so ago that he has the charisma of a third-rate Herman von Rompuy Nigel Farage impersonator.
54 countries abstained and 24 voted to keep Russia on the human rights council . The 78 are scum and should be ashamed .
Let's name them:
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*, North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*, Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*, Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Belize? Best get the Governor General on the phone!
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
The Russian social media operation have done a superb job of weaponising discontent over Iraq and Afghanistan all over the world.
Russia? Most of them are Chinese client states.
That certainly explains the Caribbean nonsense (save Cuba).
Yes, but the Russians have reactivated a Cold War Third World sense of solidarity by activating thousands of trolls and bots to spread questions along the lines "and why didn't it matter in Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq" throughout the social media space.
Because of the double-standard sense of great power machinations in their regions being largely ignored and unknown in the West throughout the Cold War, many places such as latin america and the carribean ( and Africa ) are the understandably receptive to this kind of direct message, and fairly straightforward redirecting propaganda.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
Dunno. Did Patel grow up as the heir apparent to a literal fascist?
I think those who judge her by her father are misreading the situation, hence finding things inexplicable, when they probably are quite explicable.
The first episode of Slow Horses was really v impressive.
Makes the Ipcress File look like the utter (but mildly diverting) tosh that it is.
But can you break your breakfast egg with one hand?
Who is that berk they cast as the Ipcress lead? I posted on here a week or so ago that he has the charisma of a third-rate Herman von Rompuy impersonator.
A chap called Joe Cole, not to be confused with the soccer star with the same name.
The series is beautifully shot but, by god it’s dull. My wife has not stayed awake through a single episode.
Looks like he is doing a Michael Caine impersonation rather than making the role his own.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
Comments
Thus, she wins. A bit like Brexit
The most dispiriting is when I had a work email embarrassingly accidentally sent before intended, and it was totally incomprehensible and nonsensical...but the recipient said they agreed with it. Given it made no sense, I can only assume that means they never actually read any of my emails.
They asked should France leave the EU .
No 71.7%
Yes 17.3%
Although she’s now ditched her Frexit as it cost her last time her new policy is still very antagonistic towards the EU.
I'm also irritable today, as half my blasted house is still stuck in the parental estate, so I can't do any serious works against my potential new energy bills - which have been waiting on the stocks for a year now.
So apols to anyone I have been a bit sharp-elbowed with today.
(It was added on to a more standard insurance plan.)
Known as Ilex Ferox. The distinctive being it also has spines on the faces of the leaves.
Or Blackthorn.
Of course, France has the remedy of the second round to correct that.
Sky News understands 15 to 20 officers attended the search yesterday at the union's central London headquarters and left the building with boxes of files, paper and a computer.
https://news.sky.com/story/police-raid-uks-largest-trade-union-unites-headquarters-12584484
Worth noting the prediction 95% CI did not include the actual result (not even close). So fail
Again: my supposition is that a female De Gaulle is what Le Pen would aim to be, with an added dash of ethnocentrism and culture war (rather than the actual Algerian war)
Starmer really is a revenge is the dish best served cold kind of a guy isn't he?
Len shouldn't have messed with a man who saves donkeys!
A very bad thing happened. If that made people reflect on their behaviour and the hostility of our political discourse, even though the very bad thing was not prompted in this case by it, I don't see the problem. It's never the wrong time to be concerned about rising tribalism and hostility.
Of course, it is Chilean, and not native.
,
But, Drakeford, as befits a good Socialist, is very pro-Chile.
- Family home (Kensington I think)
- Constituency home (like every MP)
- Work home at No11 (which press says he barely uses)
- Holiday home in California
So if it wasn’t for his job he would effectively have a family home and a holiday home. For someone in his wealth bracket that is very very modest. I’m sure they are very nice and all that, but it’s not particularly egregious
Final vote of the United Nations General Assembly resolution to kick Russia out of the UN Human Rights Council. Russia is out.
https://twitter.com/MarkLGoldberg/status/1512095465579458574?s=20&t=fO9xOZqsuPlJMNmKIIOJOQ
Macron 1.28 / 1.29
Le Pen 4.7 / 4.9
https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022
Betfair Exchange numbers are the same as Smarkets.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
At the start of the conflict they clamed to have 20,000 solders, and on there own website clam to have suffered 767 dead and 3,559 Wounded up to 31 March. that adds up to 4,326 and if accurate would be 22% of there starting strength. That does not include the last 7 day.
Is this credible? well it seems unlikely that they would admit a higher casuty number than real number, and the conscription of 60 year olds would suggest there armed forces are very stretched.
links, its referd to on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
And Wikipedia references the DPRs website https://ombudsman-dnr.ru/obzor-soczialno-gumanitarnoj-situaczii-slozhivshejsya-na-territorii-doneczkoj-narodnoj-respubliki-vsledstvie-voennyh-dejstvij-v-period-s-26-marta-po-01-aprelya-2022-g/
I'm struggling to translate the DPR website, so I'm happy for somebody with more skill than me to translate and correct me if appropriate.
Only on PB.
https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511996203382317058?cxt=HHwWhIC9xaei2PspAAAA
To Macron by at least 10 points would be my guess.
But basically the 24 states who voted to keep Russia on the human Rights council, are basically the nations who have such bad human Rights abuses themselves that they what to keep Russia there to help cover up there own sins.
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
https://twitter.com/kirkegaardemil/status/745685098180259840?s=21&t=B0pFpVHNXqpKgmCsDJpkJQ
But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
At the risk of triggering people, it'd be funnier if some of the really bad nations voted against Russia on this instance, out of sheer hypocrisy.
Le Pen has a 93% chance of winning….
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
It was the same modus operandi used when the three gay men were killed in Reading - talk about mental health, don’t mention about the possibility of radicalism and then slowly let the truth seep out when the outrage has died down. I doubt if the killer in either case had been a white neo-nazi we would have been having a wider debate about civility or the need to support mental health.
There is nothing wrong trying to dampen down hostility in political discourse but there is in spinning a disingenuous discourse to avoid talking another other topics.
Algeria*, Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus*, Belize, Bhutan, Bolivia*, Botswana,
Brazil, Brunei, Burundi*, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Rep*, China*, Congo*, Cuba*,
North Korea*, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea*, Eswatini, Ethiopia*, Gabon*, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau,
Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iran*, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan*, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan*,
Laos*, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali*, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia,
Nepal, Nicaragua*, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia*, Saint Kitts, Saint Vincent,
Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria*, Tajikistan*,
Thailand, Togo, Trinidad, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Tanzania, Uzbekistan*, Vanuatu, Vietnam*,
Yemen, Zimbabwe*.
Makes the Ipcress File look like the utter (but mildly diverting) tosh that it is.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
Trump v Biden?
Some not awful places on the abstentions. But some reports are that a lot of the world are leaning Russia in this whole conflict, the outrage is not a global majority.
- Natural human tendency to want disasters to happen for the spectacle value
- We dislike the French and, while we would normally baulk at wishing leaders like Le Pen on them, this is mitigated by the fact that she'll only get in if a majority votes for her
- We want to know what would happen, mostly so we can be reassured it's not a good idea, and partially just in case it turns out to be not all that bad, we can relax slightly about it ever happening here
As I said before it just seems to be extrapolation. Not Einstein. Nonetheless it is worth noting that he got it right with this simple method
To really impress he’d have to do this for half a dozen votes or elections and get it right more often than not
He may have just got lucky once
A Macron/Le Pen choice is no different and maybe even better than the Johnson/Corbyn one was.
Macron is a pain but less inept and malign than Johnson. Le Pen is a crypto-fascist but probably more “reality-based” than Corbyn.
Time for the Queen to pull a Gough Whitlam.
Most of them are Chinese client states.
That certainly explains the Caribbean nonsense (save Cuba).
Did Patel grow up as the heir apparent to a literal fascist?
The series is beautifully shot but, by god it’s dull. My wife has not stayed awake through a single episode.
Lots of nice holiday destinations tho
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sb1X_lSysY
Because of the double-standard sense of great power machinations in their regions being largely ignored and unknown in the West throughout the Cold War, many places such as latin america and the carribean ( and Africa ) are the understandably receptive to this kind of direct message, and fairly straightforward redirecting propaganda.
I will happily defend her.
The trade union confirmed that officers searched an unnamed employee's office at its Holborn headquarters under warrant on Wednesday.
It is understood South Wales Police were involved in the operation.