Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
No it is a Tory pocket filler scheme, they even charge us double to connect it the grid and sell it cheaper down south and in France. We are also a colony.
"We are also a colony."
Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.
Otherwise, evening Malcolm.
Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
I think you may mean satellite or some other phrase.
London did not colonise all of these other places.
Yeh I mean it in an economic sense.
And as such you surely have to see that it's others gravitating towards London that has been the theme.
You are applying the wrong sense of colony.
Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
I didn't suggest anywhere was a colony. Pretty hard therefore to be wrong in the sense of its use as a word.
It was implied in your erroneous argument about people moving to London.
Well clearly it would have been a daft thing to say. That I guess is mainly why I didn't say it. No colonialism has ever happened in the UK.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
This sounds a bit like that coin tossing game at the beginning of R & G Are Dead. If vaccines are not gender-segregated how on earth does it happen that you know 9 blokes who all got one set of stuff and 9 women who got another?
Because they were gender segregated here for some reason. The one woman who had A/A/P had hers before the panic about Az as she’s a doctor and after that they were giving Pf to the ladies.
What is not clear to me -- and, I suspect, to many others -- is how large the gap is between what Le Pen is saying now, and what she believes.
That question is routine for politicians. For example, during the Obama administration, I thought I could predict what he would do, by assuming he would govern as far to the left -- as he could get away with. So, for example, he claimed he was opposed to gay marriage for religious reasons while that was the predominant view in the electorate. (He actually followed Biden's lead on the subject.)
Were she elected, would she do something similar, getting as close to actual fascism as she could get away with? Would she, for example, weaken NATO, but not withdraw from it?
Would she have working majorities in the National Assembly and the Senate?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
Don’t worry. I found it. By using “useless” Twitter. Where no one goes
“#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_…”
I got it working. It's really quite unimpressive. It's pretty much what I said. A Shiny app with a graph and a data table, and a load of data points. It shows the line juuust peaking over into Leave territory but it's no more than a smoothed graph of the polls. I would upload a screenshot but I think there's some "trick" to doing that which I don't know, if someone can advise?
If you post via Vanilla there are editing buttons, which include an option for attaching images.
I’m also right about Johnson, Patel, Truss, Javid, Barclay, Eustice, Shapps and Lewis. Not to mention Rees-Mogg.
I was wrong about Raab and Kwarteng, they are both awful.
Jury’s out on Zahawi and Coffey.
I was the first person to tip Wallace, by the way. He and Gove are the only people keeping the fucking circus running.
When the clown can’t even run the circus, we know we are in trouble…
"When a clown moves into a palace, he does not become a king. The palace becomes a circus." -Turkish proverb
When the doughnut has been eaten, where is the hole in the middle? -Wittgenstein
American capitalism solved that riddle years ago...they are in the other bag you walked out the shop with after they up sold you the holes as doughnut bites :-)
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
Personally I would vote for Pecresse and if she failed to make the runoff, as is likely, Macron over Le Pen or Melenchon.
Though yes Le Pen is benefiting from much the same nationalist backlash against globalisation that produced Brexit, Trump and Orban. While Melenchon is getting the same populist left backing against inequality Corbyn got
If Le Pen does pull off a shock win, it would probably also partially be a third triumph for Russian online activity, propaganda and manipulation of Western divisions, after Brexit and Trump.
Senior Western government official says Russian troop withdrawal from Kyiv region was “no real withdrawal, but rather a large scale redeployment to the east”. Forces are getting re-supplied in Russia right now. “We expect a massive offensive soon. It has not yet started”, he says
He also says, “Kyiv is not out of danger”. A new push could come from the East in the context of all-out Russian war against Ukraine. “We don’t know what Putin will do”, he says. “But from what we see, we better expect the worst.”
That is making a huge assumption that the Russians can reconstitute their severely mauled troops withdrawn from around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into some semblance not only of a fighting force, but one that can perform significantly better than their elite units have to date.
That's true. Röpcke has generally had good sources though so I assume it's reliable information.
Incidentally, one interesting thing that's become clear from following the debate in Germany is that hawkishness on Russia was considered a 'low status' opinion, associated with people who read the Bild Zeitung. That helps explain why so many people were able to rationalise away the obvious issues with their Ostpolitik.
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
No it is a Tory pocket filler scheme, they even charge us double to connect it the grid and sell it cheaper down south and in France. We are also a colony.
"We are also a colony."
Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.
Otherwise, evening Malcolm.
Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
I think you may mean satellite or some other phrase.
London did not colonise all of these other places.
Yeh I mean it in an economic sense.
And as such you surely have to see that it's others gravitating towards London that has been the theme.
You are applying the wrong sense of colony.
Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
I didn't suggest anywhere was a colony. Pretty hard therefore to be wrong in the sense of its use as a word.
It was implied in your erroneous argument about people moving to London.
Well clearly it would have been a daft thing to say. That I guess is mainly why I didn't say it. No colonialism has ever happened in the UK.
You seem unfamiliar with the various meanings of colony and there is no point pursuing this argument further.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
“I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”
Play it again, Sam.
So fucking tedious
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron They want real change They are praying she has detoxed They detest the Parisian elite They are worried by migration They are worried about inflation and security They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland Actual quote from a focus group last night. "I'd rather have a massive wind turbine in my back garden than nothing in my bank account."
SNIP
Even better is to have a massive wind turbine in someone else's back garden.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
Are there no local taxes on these things, like for other businesses?
No it is a Tory pocket filler scheme, they even charge us double to connect it the grid and sell it cheaper down south and in France. We are also a colony.
"We are also a colony."
Go on - just for the fun of it explain quite how that works.
Otherwise, evening Malcolm.
Every nation and region of Britain is essentially a colony of London and the Home Counties.
I think you may mean satellite or some other phrase.
London did not colonise all of these other places.
Yeh I mean it in an economic sense.
And as such you surely have to see that it's others gravitating towards London that has been the theme.
You are applying the wrong sense of colony.
Immigrants always gravitate to the metropole.
I didn't suggest anywhere was a colony. Pretty hard therefore to be wrong in the sense of its use as a word.
It was implied in your erroneous argument about people moving to London.
Well clearly it would have been a daft thing to say. That I guess is mainly why I didn't say it. No colonialism has ever happened in the UK.
You seem unfamiliar with the various meanings of colony and there is no point pursuing this argument further.
That's fine GW. Do let me know how you get on with the OED.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
"Un homme dans une gare isolée Une valise à ses côtés Deux yeux fixes et froids Montrent de la peur lorsqu'il Se tourne pour se cacher"
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
Chilling but good point
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
“I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”
Play it again, Sam.
So fucking tedious
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron They want real change They are praying she has detoxed They detest the Parisian elite They are worried by migration They are worried about inflation and security They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
So what you are saying is that Brexit and fascism are kindred spirits?
What is not clear to me -- and, I suspect, to many others -- is how large the gap is between what Le Pen is saying now, and what she believes.
That question is routine for politicians. For example, during the Obama administration, I thought I could predict what he would do, by assuming he would govern as far to the left -- as he could get away with. So, for example, he claimed he was opposed to gay marriage for religious reasons while that was the predominant view in the electorate. (He actually followed Biden's lead on the subject.)
Were she elected, would she do something similar, getting as close to actual fascism as she could get away with? Would she, for example, weaken NATO, but not withdraw from it?
Would she have working majorities in the National Assembly and the Senate?
Given her political journey so far, is the opposite move towards the mainstream just as likely?
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
Why the difference in jab combinations?
Having been pulled up on it I’ve checked about some other female acquaintances- it seems all women in a rough age bracket here were given Px3 after a certain date.
I have been told of two more women who had Az Pfizer combo who had a bad time but they both also had their jabs early in the process.
As I said - it’s not scientific but I found it interesting that it was such a strong split although a very small sample.
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
And there was I, patting myself on the back for having had AZ/AZ/Pf.
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
Why the difference in jab combinations?
Having been pulled up on it I’ve checked about some other female acquaintances- it seems all women in a rough age bracket here were given Px3 after a certain date.
I have been told of two more women who had Az Pfizer combo who had a bad time but they both also had their jabs early in the process.
As I said - it’s not scientific but I found it interesting that it was such a strong split although a very small sample.
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
And there was I, patting myself on the back for having had AZ/AZ/Pf.
Thanks!
I'm Pfizer*3 - male, 58, central-ish London. (Two of the jabs were at Lord's - I rather liked that)
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
Why the difference in jab combinations?
Having been pulled up on it I’ve checked about some other female acquaintances- it seems all women in a rough age bracket here were given Px3 after a certain date.
I have been told of two more women who had Az Pfizer combo who had a bad time but they both also had their jabs early in the process.
As I said - it’s not scientific but I found it interesting that it was such a strong split although a very small sample.
My stepmother has just had covid. She’s a cancer survivor - barely - and severely immunocompromised. So we all thought “eeek”
But it was like a mild flu and she has now tested negative 🤷♂️
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
Personally I would vote for Pecresse and if she failed to make the runoff, as is likely, Macron over Le Pen or Melenchon.
Though yes Le Pen is benefiting from much the same nationalist backlash against globalisation that produced Brexit, Trump and Orban. While Melenchon is getting the same populist left backing against inequality Corbyn got
And what if there was a Plaid Cymru candidate on the ballot?
OT. I gave Labour £100 a few months ago in the hope it would encourage them to get an agency who would give them some guidance and direction. What I got were a lot of emails from Owen Jones this being the latest.
roger, even for the Tory Party, this hypocrisy is breath-taking.
Rishi Sunak has put your family’s taxes up 15 times.
But does his family pay less?
Independent Headline
"Rishi Sunak needs to come clean on his and his family's tax affairs".
Just yesterday, he clobbered nearly every single working person in the country with another damaging tax rise.
This is at a time when energy bills are through the roof, prices are soaring and wages are through the floor.
The reality couldn’t be clearer: the Tories think it’s one rule for them and another for the rest of us.
roger, don't let them get away with it.............
In my opinion they're going for the wrong target. HIS donation to an elite public school was a story with legs. It told you about his priorities and everything that is dislikable about the philosophy of senior Tories and their party.
That he married a rich feckless tax avoider (if that's what she is) just makes the fair minded feel sorry for him
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
Personally I would vote for Pecresse and if she failed to make the runoff, as is likely, Macron over Le Pen or Melenchon.
Though yes Le Pen is benefiting from much the same nationalist backlash against globalisation that produced Brexit, Trump and Orban. While Melenchon is getting the same populist left backing against inequality Corbyn got
And what if there was a Plaid Cymru candidate on the ballot?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
“I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”
Play it again, Sam.
So fucking tedious
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron They want real change They are praying she has detoxed They detest the Parisian elite They are worried by migration They are worried about inflation and security They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
So what you are saying is that Brexit and fascism are kindred spirits?
Interesting.
I don’t believe Le Pen is a fascist. Not judging by her policies and statements in the last decade.
Could she be a secret fascist? Yes. But you could make such claims - he secretly believes this! - of many politicians
She’s an ethnocentric populist nationalist. A left wing Farage perhaps, although british and French traditions are so different maybe there is no good comparison
People who claim a Le Pen win would be no great shakes, are wrong.
It would send destabilise the EU, NATO, and the fragile alliance against Putin that Boris, to his credit, has actually had a leading role in bringing about.
Curious goings-on in the war today, A sad-faced Peskov talking about "significant Russian losses", and that he's very "sorry that Russia has been thrown of the Human Rights Council", and Lukashenko simultaneously apparently making his discontent clear, both by trying to insert himself into any negotiation, and talking about "the countries, mainly the West, trying to rope us into continuation of this war."
Exclusive: Trials to shorten football matches to 60 minutes but introduce a stop-clock, pausing the timer when the ball is not in play, could take place as early as this month.
What counts as not in play? The time from a ball going out to the throw coming in? That’s normally not added on. Stoppages for injuries are. Seems wrong. I’d love to know what the current stats are by the definition they are using.
Senior Western government official says Russian troop withdrawal from Kyiv region was “no real withdrawal, but rather a large scale redeployment to the east”. Forces are getting re-supplied in Russia right now. “We expect a massive offensive soon. It has not yet started”, he says
He also says, “Kyiv is not out of danger”. A new push could come from the East in the context of all-out Russian war against Ukraine. “We don’t know what Putin will do”, he says. “But from what we see, we better expect the worst.”
That is making a huge assumption that the Russians can reconstitute their severely mauled troops withdrawn from around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into some semblance not only of a fighting force, but one that can perform significantly better than their elite units have to date.
That's true. Röpcke has generally had good sources though so I assume it's reliable information.
Incidentally, one interesting thing that's become clear from following the debate in Germany is that hawkishness on Russia was considered a 'low status' opinion, associated with people who read the Bild Zeitung. That helps explain why so many people were able to rationalise away the obvious issues with their Ostpolitik.
Naive sophistication is the term I learned the other day ...
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
“I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”
Play it again, Sam.
So fucking tedious
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron They want real change They are praying she has detoxed They detest the Parisian elite They are worried by migration They are worried about inflation and security They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
So what you are saying is that Brexit and fascism are kindred spirits?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
“I don’t like Le Pen, but what if…”
Play it again, Sam.
So fucking tedious
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron They want real change They are praying she has detoxed They detest the Parisian elite They are worried by migration They are worried about inflation and security They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
So what you are saying is that Brexit and fascism are kindred spirits?
Interesting.
I don’t believe Le Pen is a fascist. Not judging by her policies and statements in the last decade.
Could she be a secret fascist? Yes. But you could make such claims - he secretly believes this! - of many politicians
She’s an ethnocentric populist nationalist. A left wing Farage perhaps, although british and French traditions are so different maybe there is no good comparison
One of the things I can’t get my head around is that while Brexit is the preserve of the old and middle-aged, Le Penisme (fascist or no) is more of a youth movement.
So while the two phenoms look so similar on the surface, I wonder if they are motivated by quite different things, albeit appealing against the same time-honoured folk devils.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
Chilling but good point
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
Gone off gin a bit recently, maybe warmer weather will reignite my thirst. The Harris stuff was ok but the bottle was the real bit of marketing genius. I'll give the Barra stuff a try next time I buy a bottle.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
And Britain is different how?
A Macron/Le Pen choice is no different and maybe even better than the Johnson/Corbyn one was.
Macron is a pain but less inept and malign than Johnson. Le Pen is a crypto-fascist but probably more “reality-based” than Corbyn.
Macron has a bit of technocratic polish, but is he really less inept than Johnson? He has a litany of failures on his record, particularly on foreign policy. His handling of covid wasn't any more impressive and arguably nothing was more malign than deliberately trashing the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Unlike his predecessors, Macron has actually managed to make it easier for French firms to let workers go, and began increasing the age of retirement for civil servants.
He has not managed to get a grip on France's ridiculous "social charges" that make hiring people on lower incomes prohibitively expensive.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
Chilling but good point
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
Gone off gin a bit recently, maybe warmer weather will reignite my thirst. The Harris stuff was ok but the bottle was the real bit of marketing genius. I'll give the Barra stuff a try next time I buy a bottle.
Exclusive: Trials to shorten football matches to 60 minutes but introduce a stop-clock, pausing the timer when the ball is not in play, could take place as early as this month.
What counts as not in play? The time from a ball going out to the throw coming in? That’s normally not added on. Stoppages for injuries are. Seems wrong. I’d love to know what the current stats are by the definition they are using.
Ball in play is literally just that. It is different to injury time.
Had the unusual experience of being hailed on inside this afternoon. Roof above our building not well sealed (it’s glass) and hail stones came in as I was talking in the corridor...
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
This sounds a bit like that coin tossing game at the beginning of R & G Are Dead. If vaccines are not gender-segregated how on earth does it happen that you know 9 blokes who all got one set of stuff and 9 women who got another?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
Chilling but good point
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
Gone off gin a bit recently, maybe warmer weather will reignite my thirst. The Harris stuff was ok but the bottle was the real bit of marketing genius. I'll give the Barra stuff a try next time I buy a bottle.
For a treat, try it on Barra....
Would like to but my annual Hebridean trip buddies have all fallen out, so that's a 20 year tradition assaulted by Covid and finally killed off Will have to try stuff on my own initiative, so maybe Barra this year.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
Pecresse, I suppose. With absolutely no enthusiasm. Le Pen has, to my mind, absolutely nothing going for her.
I can announce the results of my very scientific study of covid amongst my friendship group (ok not really very scientific).
I surveyed 19 of my circle of friends who have had covid since December as everyone had three jabs by then.
9 men (aged between 40 and 55) all had AZ/AZ/Pf and all had grim symptoms of various kinds.
9 women (aged between 36 and 53) all had P/P/P and none had symptoms more than a light cold.
1 woman aged 38 had A/A/P and has evil symptoms.
None have any particular underlying conditions of note.
Now it could be fluke or coincidence or a different effect by sex (and the one woman with A/A/P was just a strange situation) but I thought it was interesting anyway.
This sounds a bit like that coin tossing game at the beginning of R & G Are Dead. If vaccines are not gender-segregated how on earth does it happen that you know 9 blokes who all got one set of stuff and 9 women who got another?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
Lol. Have you been abroad for the past few years?
But seriously, who was the last French politician it was possible to admire from afar?
The French system is shit. The fifth republic has issued up a series of chancers, crooks and megalomaniacs.
It’s a good question you ask; Pompidou? He died half way through but he “left” the best modern art museum in the world.
I think that is fair; a French President most remembered for having the pipework on the outside!
We may have some shite politicians here but at least none has been reduced to house arrest with an ankle bracelet.
Yet.
You're not suggesting with a straight face any can compete with Johnson when it comes to being unfit for office?
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Yes. Of course
“It’s a rubbish bin’: Parisians fight for the soul of their blighted city”
Meanwhile she’s such a good mayor, even Parisians won’t vote for her as president, as she’s done such a great job? It’s quite hard to get just 1% of the polls if you govern the capital city of many millions
This 1% also means any French person who has been to Paris in the last few years has looked at it and thought: Pas Hidalgo
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
Je ne suis pas fan de Marine mais..
"To get there, her campaign has homed in on one central pledge: to put more money in French pockets amid fears of inflation and rising living costs linked to the war in Ukraine." it says here. Substitute English for French and I can relate to that as a rosbif.
Also, who doesn't hate waiting on railway station platforms?
Depends on the (ultimate) destination I guess..
Chilling but good point
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
Gone off gin a bit recently, maybe warmer weather will reignite my thirst. The Harris stuff was ok but the bottle was the real bit of marketing genius. I'll give the Barra stuff a try next time I buy a bottle.
For a treat, try it on Barra....
Would like to but my annual Hebridean trip buddies have all fallen out, so that's a 20 year tradition assaulted by Covid and finally killed off Will have to try stuff on my own initiative, so maybe Barra this year.
Sad to hear. My biennial trip to Barra got canned last year when my trip buddy's father had a stroke. Hoping we can resurrect it (if not him) next year.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
By that measure Sadiq Khan is a world beater which we know not to be the case.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
By that measure Sadiq Khan is a world beater which we know not to be the case.
I don’t recall Khan making anything famous, nor positioning London as the world leader in anything.
Tho he’s slightly gone up in my estimates since Dick fell on her sword.
If Trump got back in at the same time, things could get "interesting"..
i think several of the candidates have quite anti-NATO positions. It’s not a unique “Le Pen” thing
Anti NATOism (a proxy for French detestation of Anglo Saxon hegemony) is a big tradition in France; De Gaulle did it too
A bit different in April 2022, and when you have a specific backstory of advocating for Putin, though.
Anti-NATOism is traditional on the Portugese, Italian and Greek left, too, for instance - except that their main parties are actually currently supporting the NATO sanctions and action.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment. Take away Macron, who would you vote for, of the leading candidates
For me, it probably would be Le Pen
Melenchon is Corbyn: no way Pecresse seems totally feeble Zemmour is almost a Nazi, and mad Hidalgo is a woke joke and terrible mayor of Paris
Who is going to stand up for France, is also sane, and a patriot, and would make an interesting change?
Hold your nose: Le Pen? And pray she really has detoxed
So @noneoftheabove makes a valid point, in a sense. There are circs where she gets support
Edit to add: this is a mind game where Putin has NOT invaded Ukraine
Pecresse, I suppose. With absolutely no enthusiasm. Le Pen has, to my mind, absolutely nothing going for her.
Thinking about this again, with regards Macton, never has 'best if a bad lot' been more appropriate. What an absolute shower of jokers is lined up against him.
The advantage of Le Pen, I suppose, is that some people with whom I tend to disagree dislike her. This is a seductive but ridiculous trap to fall into however. If I was to find something positive to say about Le Pen is that she does at least recognise some of the problems facing France which Macron appears not to. But I don't agree with her solutions to them.
Le Pen winning would be truly depressing. Like an Orban winning power at the heart of Europe, just across the channel from us.
And the trouble with fascist-sympathisers winning power is that they tend to do all they can to not let it go.
Whereas, what, politicians of any other persuasion are notably chilled as to whether they stay in office or don't?
They are much less likely to rig the rules of the game in their favour until what is left can no longer be called a democracy.
Putin. Orban. Trump. Le Pen. They're all dangers to democracy at home and abroad, and we should treat them as such regardless of how far down the path they have trodden.
One aspect of the French elex we are ignoring is Islam/Islamism
The French are much more agitated about it than we are, because of the Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, and Nice attacks, plus the murder of the teacher (even if the UK has suffered plentiful atrocities as well). France also has the largest Muslim population in the West
Le Pen is seen as tougher on all this than Macron, even tho, ironically, Macron has triangulated so hard to the right he now *appears* harsher than her
If you are worried by Islamism in France, she is perhaps the obvious choice.
Doesn’t explain why she is popular with the young however. Tho the NYTimes did a good article showing how the Right in France was now expert at social media - better than the Left
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
Well let's hope it's better than Crossrail. Not doubting you for a moment but Crossrail claims to be the biggest engineering project in the universe or some such. The slowest certainly.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
I love the metro.
You can hop and skip down to the platforms very easily, because it’s so close to the surface, and the “meandering” nature you bemoan actually means you get to all sorts of places quite quickly rather than just east west or north south.
It’s no more dirty than London, station for station (compare with the New York subway, which is effectively a sewer with a mass transit built into it).
As for the nutters and flashers and ne’er-do-wells —- this is Paris, ffs.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
I love the metro.
You can hop and skip down to the platforms very easily, because it’s so close to the surface, and the “meandering” nature you bemoan actually means you get to all sorts of places quite quickly rather than just east west or north south.
It’s no more dirty than London, station for station (compare with the New York subway, which is effectively a sewer with a mass transit built into it).
As for the nutters and flashers and ne’er-do-wells —- this is Paris, ffs.
GW, I've no idea what it was like in 2018, but it's very run down now - at least in the central stops.
One aspect of the French elex we are ignoring is Islam/Islamism
The French are much more agitated about it than we are, because of the Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, and Nice attacks, plus the murder of the teacher (even if the UK has suffered plentiful atrocities as well). France also has the largest Muslim population in the West
Le Pen is seen as tougher on all this than Macron, even tho, ironically, Macron has triangulated so hard to the right he now *appears* harsher than her
If you are worried by Islamism in France, she is perhaps the obvious choice.
Doesn’t explain why she is popular with the young however. Tho the NYTimes did a good article showing how the Right in France was now expert at social media - better than the Left
Now what does that remind you of..
I agree that there are very specific huge social problems in France. Very avowed state secularism and the largest, often socially disenfranchised-feeling Muslim population in Europe are not a good mix.
LePen will only rub salt in the wounds and make it all worse, though.
More reports from Ukraine of people - this time doctors and patients - being "deported" to Russia.
Given what we have learnt about Russian treatment of Ukrainian civilians, "deported" is, to me, starting to sound like the Germans talking about "resettlement" of Jews.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
I love the metro.
You can hop and skip down to the platforms very easily, because it’s so close to the surface, and the “meandering” nature you bemoan actually means you get to all sorts of places quite quickly rather than just east west or north south.
It’s no more dirty than London, station for station (compare with the New York subway, which is effectively a sewer with a mass transit built into it).
As for the nutters and flashers and ne’er-do-wells —- this is Paris, ffs.
AIUI the rubber tyres were to reduce vibration impact, espl. with it so close to the surface.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
It is odd that there is so much wrong with France yet they manage to attract the most visitors in the world by quite a considerable distance.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
And yet most Parisian suburbs are a mixture of hellholes and shitholes.
I have no idea why you seem to like Paris, it's a dump with not very good food. France has got so much to offer, Paris isn't even close to the top of their list.
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
See Telegraph/Spectator articles and various PB Tory comments passim.
It’s a bit like the Japanese fetish for vending machines that sell schoolgirls’ knickers. Inexplicable to outsiders.
Is it inexplicable? How different is Le Pen's platform from that of someone like Priti Patel?
A bit more overt and extreme, I think ( Priti Patel is certainly a threat to democracy, though). "National preference" for housing and services, in Putin's pocket for foreign policy.
If Patel had her own party, I could see such a policy. Even Brown had British jobs for British workers.
Its daft how much insulting daftness heads her way.
I will happily defend her.
I dont like her brand of politics, even if it is not her fathers anymore, but think it would be better if those who approve of her winning, would just say so and that they quite like most of what she stands for, rather than give it the standard "it would be funny and great if she won, but I really don't want her to" line.
I don’t believe there is anyone on here who actively wants her to win. There are a lot of people who enjoy political drama - most of us? - and what was a tedious one horse race is now much more exciting. That’s fun
Also seeing Macron frightened is a pleasure. He is a twat. And an anglophobe
As for myself, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Despite the twatness, I’d vote for Macron. He’s done OK. he’s the best of a fairly feeble bunch.
I don’t think Le Pen would a fascist catastrophe. She’s not Mussolini. But her victory would encourage Putin, and that alone is reason enough to want her to lose
How can there possibly not be anyone here who wants her to win? There are hundreds of regular posters, maybe thousands including casuals, from a wide spectrum of views and experiences and she is getting high polling numbers. Are we really to believe none of the UKIPers or Brexiteer wing of the Tories agree with her more than they disagree?
Er, because no one has expressed that sentiment? You can only go by what people say
Except that you seek to look into pb-ers souls where you are sure they are secretly pro Le Pen, because you just KNOW
Whatever
It would be quite extraordinary to have many posters who are quite keen on authoritarian nationalism and protectionism, but none of them favour an authoritarian nationalist protectionist.
I can think of exactly one poster who might describe himself as keen on authoritarianism/nationalism/protectionism - and even he might express some reservations about Le Pen. Many of us think Macron's a dick. Possibly even relish his discomfort a little. That absolutely doesn't equate to wanting Le Pen to win.
Personally think there is a section of French electorate that wants to send Macron & establishment a message, by voting for Le Pen in 1st round, but plans to switch to Marcon in 2nd round.
Which is rather different from previous voter psychology, methinks, when may voters (including some of the above) were afraid/leery of voting for Le Pen at all.
Partly the change reflects softening of her image & message, but think mostly because of increased anti-establishment public opinion, even among folks who are generally pro-establishmentarians.
That's my theory, anyway, and sticking to it for now.
BTW, I have used the same logic with my own vote in past primaries, particularly when it seemed certain that what you might call my ultimate choice would make the general election ballot.
Le Pen winning would be truly depressing. Like an Orban winning power at the heart of Europe, just across the channel from us.
And the trouble with fascist-sympathisers winning power is that they tend to do all they can to not let it go.
Whereas, what, politicians of any other persuasion are notably chilled as to whether they stay in office or don't?
They are much less likely to rig the rules of the game in their favour until what is left can no longer be called a democracy.
Putin. Orban. Trump. Le Pen. They're all dangers to democracy at home and abroad, and we should treat them as such regardless of how far down the path they have trodden.
Le Pen is more like the Jörg Haider, I think, than a Trump. A threat from inside the system - she would seek to create a world where FascistLite French Presidents are... normal.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
And yet most Parisian suburbs are a mixture of hellholes and shitholes.
I have no idea why you seem to like Paris, it's a dump with not very good food. France has got so much to offer, Paris isn't even close to the top of their list.
Yes, Paris is known far and wide as a “dump with not very good food”.
Do you think you might be over-egging the omelette?
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
If you want to see public transport horror, look at recent videos of the Los Angeles metro
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
It is odd that there is so much wrong with France yet they manage to attract the most visitors in the world by quite a considerable distance.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
It is odd that there is so much wrong with France yet they manage to attract the most visitors in the world by quite a considerable distance.
Presumably all the Brexiters are too busy holidaying in Cleethorpes to worry about “dumps with not very good food”.
That’s fine. I’ve no urgent need to share Paris (or France) with the sort of people who complain about “shit-ache” mushrooms.
HYUFD was quite lyrical on PB recently about the potential for holidays in places such as Skegness post_Brexit, interestingly. (Though I am rather fond of Whitby and Scarborough myself.)
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
If you want to see public transport horror, look at recent videos of the Los Angeles metro
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
And yet most Parisian suburbs are a mixture of hellholes and shitholes.
I have no idea why you seem to like Paris, it's a dump with not very good food. France has got so much to offer, Paris isn't even close to the top of their list.
I love a bit of frog-bashing, but this is absurd. Paris is a magnificent city, going through some social problems - not unlike London
I prefer London as it is more interesting and exhilarating (and probably has better food, now), but Paris is still uniquely glorious at its best
I don't share the fear about Le Pen winning. If it happens, it would be the outcome of a democratic process - as was the election of Donald Trump in 2016, and as was Brexit. The real problem is that there is an attempt to cast lots of popular political movements as being toxic, extreme, barbaric - indicative of a descent into fascism and a new dark age. But these movements often represent the views of something like 50% of the population, who have the same fears about the direction of society under supposedly liberal, enlightened governments. Until such point as both sides can coexist and work with each other, we are in deep trouble, and will never get out of the self destructive polarisation. Whilst we are obviously not voting in the French election, both my wife and I were pretty impressed by Zemmour - we could see exactly why educated people would vote for him or Le Pen. I would probably vote for Macron if I had to choose, but it would be mainly because of the links between Le Pen/Zemmour and Putin, which are in my view intolerable, given what has gone on in Ukraine.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
Do tell.
Well in London you generally get where you want to relatively swiftly and other than some time in the morning you'll not be a sardine.
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
I think the last time I was in Paris was late 2018, a while ago. What I do know is there’s been quite significant expansion into the suburbs as part of the Grand Paris Express project - twice as large as Crossrail.
And yet most Parisian suburbs are a mixture of hellholes and shitholes.
I have no idea why you seem to like Paris, it's a dump with not very good food. France has got so much to offer, Paris isn't even close to the top of their list.
Yes, Paris is known far and wide as a “dump with not very good food”.
Do you think you might be over-egging the omelette?
The perception and reality are somewhat disconnected, but they are aligning. Its reputation has been sliding for years and there's no sign of improvement.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
It is odd that there is so much wrong with France yet they manage to attract the most visitors in the world by quite a considerable distance.
Presumably all the Brexiters are too busy holidaying in Cleethorpes to worry about “dumps with not very good food”.
That’s fine. I’ve no urgent need to share Paris (or France) with the sort of people who complain about “shit-ache” mushrooms.
HYUFD was quite lyrical on PB recently about the potential for holidays in places such as Skegness post_Brexit, interestingly. (Though I am rather fond of Whitby and Scarborough myself.)
Well Max was pointing out the other day that the UK’s tourism receipts have collapsed, so Skegness needs you more than ever.
Politico.com - Local conservatives revolt against Trump House favorite The former president endorsed a 26-year-old who lives hours away from the congressional district he's running in.
. . . Through newspaper advertisements, email blasts and door-knocking, some local Republicans are trying to spread the word that Hines, Trump’s favored candidate in the 13th Congressional District, is a carpetbagger. In their view, the former president was misguided in endorsing Hines over homegrown conservatives invested in local party politics.
The revolt against Trump by conservatives who adore him, while rare, isn’t the first of its kind this year. Trump has issued scores of midterm endorsements, in some cases for candidates who are all but unknown to local GOP officials and activists.
“It feels like it’s incumbent on us to make sure everybody understands that Bo Hines may be a fine fellow — I don’t know him — but the truth of it is he’s not a resident of the district,” said Linwood Parker, chair of the Johnston County Republican Men’s Organization and former mayor of Four Oaks. “He’s coming in, just trying to cherry pick a district he can win.” . . .
The conservative men’s group, which formed last fall and meets in an outbuilding behind a Four Oaks gas station on the second Saturday of the month, is not endorsing any particular candidate in the race. Parker cited three other Republicans on the primary ballot who are from the district, who he believes would better represent voters’ interests.
Trump is set to appear in the eastern North Carolina county this weekend to rally on behalf of Hines and two other endorsed candidates ahead of the state’s May 17 primary. For Senate, Trump’s support is behind Rep. Ted Budd, who struggled in recent months to take the lead over former Gov. Pat McCrory, but has turned a corner as outside spending has skyrocketed in his favor. Also booked for the rally is Rep. Madison Cawthorn, the freshman congressman from the western part of the state who has angered top House Republicans after talking about orgies and cocaine. . . .
Who wants to be, that 45's carpetbagging pride & joy is also a Putinist giving aid & comfort NOT to Ukraine?
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
If you want to see public transport horror, look at recent videos of the Los Angeles metro
If he got this bang on, then his prediction of a Le Pen victory carries a lot more weight
I'm no expert but I've used it.
OK cool. So what did he predict?!
GitHub just stores the code. We'd have to pull it down, feed it his data source and run it to see his graphs (it runs a loess regression and outputs a bunch of histograms, at a quick glance)
(Ah - it scrapes the FT's brexit polling so it should be runnable by anyone with R skills)
Yup, FT data, loess fit, put into a shiny app with a graph. No rocket science here.
Yes yes, but what did he predict?!
If he aced it, then his French predix carry more weight
Alright, it's been a while since I've used R and I don't have it installed on this machine, so I'll see if I can spin up a machine in Google Cloud and run it. Only because it's you.
If the code is buggy, I'll stop. I'm not going to debug someone else's 6 year old code. Give me a few minutes.
You’re a star. Also that all sounds highly impressive
Oh god I wish I hadn't started this. He's got a hot mess of dependencies in there. One of them is called "kirkegaard", which seems to be his own dump of random code bits. And there's a reference to another packages called "psychometric" which I don't even know what that is. It's not on CRAN and it's not in his personal Github, so fuck knows what that's about. That code is officially NOT in a working order.
So basically, bullshit. But @Leon’s hope is palpable.
The PB Tory’s onanistic fantasy of a Le Pen win seems to come around more and more frequently. Perhaps I am just getting old.
Does @HYUFD still maintain Le Pen actually won the last election, pending final returns from Kerguelen?
Does anyone actually want her to win? Other than hope of a more excisting contest, pretty sure most people on both sides think Macron is far and away the best choice the French have.
A Le Pen win is one of those secret desires held by the PB Tory / Brexit tribe.
Not by me it isn't.
I just wish France didn't keep ending up with a choice of two deeply flawed characters.
It seems in France, shit perennially floats to the political top.
Lol. Have you been abroad for the past few years?
But seriously, who was the last French politician it was possible to admire from afar?
The French system is shit. The fifth republic has issued up a series of chancers, crooks and megalomaniacs.
It’s a good question you ask; Pompidou? He died half way through but he “left” the best modern art museum in the world.
I think that is fair; a French President most remembered for having the pipework on the outside!
We may have some shite politicians here but at least none has been reduced to house arrest with an ankle bracelet.
Yet.
You're not suggesting with a straight face any can compete with Johnson when it comes to being unfit for office?
Well, Mitterand then Chirac then Sarkozy takes some beating anywhere on the planet for a run of corrupt top men.
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
I absolutely love this line of attack on the Chancellor, because it basically boils down to "women are the property of their husband, who is therefore to be held responsible for all the silly things they do".
Which is... let's say, somewhat at odds with the general views on gender equality usually held by many of those people making the argument.
It boils down to nothing of the kind. Those of us less inherently gammonious than you are quite capable of regarding a spouse as, gender neutrally, a spouse.
That's my point. If you believe that, it's incompatible with the idea that Sunak is somehow responsible for his spouse's financial affairs. What's he supposed to do, order her to change her status? Beat her if she refuses?
Isn't the issue here that she has a choice every year whether or not to have her income, wherever it comes from, taxed in the U.K. or only on a remittance basis? She is actively choosing the latter and her husband knows this, I assume, and is benefiting from the fact that his family's wealth is therefore larger than it would otherwise have been.
If Sunak did not have such a tin ear for how people feel at the moment about inflation, rising taxes, increasing bills etc, this might have less traction.
Dipped into PB for a few minutes and what do I find? ...@Leon wants to vote for Le Pen.
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
I love how, in his thought experiment, he wrote off Hidalgo as a “failed mayor”.
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
She’s trashed the city and she’s polling at 1% for president. Lol
Trashed the city?
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Paris is a pain as regards transport in my one recent visit. (Admittedly there was some sort of a strike on one day of the three I was there)
London is better.
I haven't been to Paris for 20 years, so my views may be out of date. But I thought the metro was shit. 1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great. 2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells. 3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about? 4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
It is odd that there is so much wrong with France yet they manage to attract the most visitors in the world by quite a considerable distance.
Presumably all the Brexiters are too busy holidaying in Cleethorpes to worry about “dumps with not very good food”.
That’s fine. I’ve no urgent need to share Paris (or France) with the sort of people who complain about “shit-ache” mushrooms.
HYUFD was quite lyrical on PB recently about the potential for holidays in places such as Skegness post_Brexit, interestingly. (Though I am rather fond of Whitby and Scarborough myself.)
Well Max was pointing out the other day that the UK’s tourism receipts have collapsed, so Skegness needs you more than ever.
Not sure that it was a major destination for, say, the average Parisian or Chinese visitor (as opposed, in the case of the latter, to Banbury shopping village - quite an eye opener to be on a Sunday morning train from Maryelobone to Oxford a few years back along the Princes Risborough line btw). So not sure how Skegness is doing even worse than it was.
Comments
-Wittgenstein
That question is routine for politicians. For example, during the Obama administration, I thought I could predict what he would do, by assuming he would govern as far to the left -- as he could get away with. So, for example, he claimed he was opposed to gay marriage for religious reasons while that was the predominant view in the electorate. (He actually followed Biden's lead on the subject.)
Were she elected, would she do something similar, getting as close to actual fascism as she could get away with? Would she, for example, weaken NATO, but not withdraw from it?
Would she have working majorities in the National Assembly and the Senate?
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/
Though yes Le Pen is benefiting from much the same nationalist backlash against globalisation that produced Brexit, Trump and Orban. While Melenchon is getting the same populist left backing against inequality Corbyn got
Incidentally, one interesting thing that's become clear from following the debate in Germany is that hawkishness on Russia was considered a 'low status' opinion, associated with people who read the Bild Zeitung. That helps explain why so many people were able to rationalise away the obvious issues with their Ostpolitik.
I’m trying to get inside the minds of 50.3% French people who are apparently willing to vote for Le Pen, on the latest poll
Do you think more than half the French are Fascists?
No. Nor do I
So why are they apparently voting for her?
The loathe Macron
They want real change
They are praying she has detoxed
They detest the Parisian elite
They are worried by migration
They are worried about inflation and security
They are willing to thrust Ukraine from their minds
They look at all the other alternatives and despair
Put it all together and it is extremely similar to Brexit
Une valise à ses côtés
Deux yeux fixes et froids
Montrent de la peur lorsqu'il
Se tourne pour se cacher"
To lighten the tone let me recomend Barra gin, if you are a gin drinker. Excellent both in dry martinis and with tonic. Whereas I find the Harris stuff distinctly meh.
Interesting.
In abstaining.
I have been told of two more women who had Az Pfizer combo who had a bad time but they both also had their jabs early in the process.
As I said - it’s not scientific but I found it interesting that it was such a strong split although a very small sample.
Hopefully we don't get the chance to find out.
Thanks!
Shocked I am, truly shocked! Never saw that coming, no not at all.
But it was like a mild flu and she has now tested negative 🤷♂️
Triple jabbed of course
roger, even for the Tory Party, this hypocrisy is breath-taking.
Rishi Sunak has put your family’s taxes up 15 times.
But does his family pay less?
Independent Headline
"Rishi Sunak needs to come clean on his and his family's tax affairs".
Just yesterday, he clobbered nearly every single working person in the country with another damaging tax rise.
This is at a time when energy bills are through the roof, prices are soaring and wages are through the floor.
The reality couldn’t be clearer: the Tories think it’s one rule for them and another for the rest of us.
roger, don't let them get away with it.............
In my opinion they're going for the wrong target. HIS donation to an elite public school was a story with legs. It told you about his priorities and everything that is dislikable about the philosophy of senior Tories and their party.
That he married a rich feckless tax avoider (if that's what she is) just makes the fair minded feel sorry for him
Admittedly her campaign for president was a complete non-starter, but she’s been a very successful mayor.
And the trouble with fascist-sympathisers winning power is that they tend to do all they can to not let it go.
Could she be a secret fascist? Yes. But you could make such claims - he secretly believes this! - of many politicians
She’s an ethnocentric populist nationalist. A left wing Farage perhaps, although british and French traditions are so different maybe there is no good comparison
https://parentinfluence.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/1-43.jpg
It would send destabilise the EU, NATO, and the fragile alliance against Putin that Boris, to his credit, has actually had a leading role in bringing about.
No, I didn’t. I played a thought experiment to find a circumstance where it might be possible to vote for her.
You have to remove Macron. Who for all his faults is a much stronger more reliable candidate
You also have to remove Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Right now anything that helps Putin cannot be tolerated
You have nonetheless to keep the rest of the line up of political dwarves, cranks and weirdos - from Mélenchon to Zemmour
Then she becomes a possibility
But you do you
Seems wrong. I’d love to know what the current stats are by the definition they are using.
Interesting.
So while the two phenoms look so similar on the surface, I wonder if they are motivated by quite different things, albeit appealing against the same time-honoured folk devils.
He has not managed to get a grip on France's ridiculous "social charges" that make hiring people on lower incomes prohibitively expensive.
Varies from about 40 mins to 70 mins per match.
She’s made the “15-minute city” concept globally famous. Paris is considered the world leader for urban innovation, in a way Boris the biker only dreamt of.
She may be woke, I don’t know, but she’s won twice, already, even if Paris mayor (which has a lot more power than London mayor) is the summit of her achievement.
Le Pen has, to my mind, absolutely nothing going for her.
London is better.
“It’s a rubbish bin’: Parisians fight for the soul of their blighted city”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/05/sacre-bleu-has-beautiful-paris-now-turned-into-the-city-of-blight
February 2022
Meanwhile she’s such a good mayor, even Parisians won’t vote for her as president, as she’s done such a great job? It’s quite hard to get just 1% of the polls if you govern the capital city of many millions
This 1% also means any French person who has been to Paris in the last few years has looked at it and thought: Pas Hidalgo
https://twitter.com/KaiKochmann/status/1511625880073822221
If Trump got back in at the same time, things could get "interesting".
In Paris the metro was often over-crowded, and quite slow - just a function of the density of stations. It really shows its age.
25 years ago it would have been the reverse. Back then the tube was pretty awful, and the metro pretty great.
Anti NATOism (a proxy for French detestation of Anglo Saxon hegemony) is a big tradition in France; De Gaulle did it too
Tho he’s slightly gone up in my estimates since Dick fell on her sword.
Anti-NATOism is traditional on the Portugese, Italian and Greek left, too, for instance - except that their main parties are actually currently supporting the NATO sanctions and action.
1) It didn't go anywhere directly. Each line meanders all over the place. From a transport planning point of view, not great.
2) Full of nutters and flashers and other neer-do-wells.
3) most of the trains ran on rubber tyres. What's that all about?
4) dirty and unkempt. Made London look like Singapore.
The advantage of Le Pen, I suppose, is that some people with whom I tend to disagree dislike her. This is a seductive but ridiculous trap to fall into however.
If I was to find something positive to say about Le Pen is that she does at least recognise some of the problems facing France which Macron appears not to. But I don't agree with her solutions to them.
Putin. Orban. Trump. Le Pen. They're all dangers to democracy at home and abroad, and we should treat them as such regardless of how far down the path they have trodden.
The French are much more agitated about it than we are, because of the Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, and Nice attacks, plus the murder of the teacher (even if the UK has suffered plentiful atrocities as well). France also has the largest Muslim population in the West
Le Pen is seen as tougher on all this than Macron, even tho, ironically, Macron has triangulated so hard to the right he now *appears* harsher than her
If you are worried by Islamism in France, she is perhaps the obvious choice.
Doesn’t explain why she is popular with the young however. Tho the NYTimes did a good article showing how the Right in France was now expert at social media - better than the Left
You can hop and skip down to the platforms very easily, because it’s so close to the surface, and the “meandering” nature you bemoan actually means you get to all sorts of places quite quickly rather than just east west or north south.
It’s no more dirty than London, station for station (compare with the New York subway, which is effectively a sewer with a mass transit built into it).
As for the nutters and flashers and ne’er-do-wells —- this is Paris, ffs.
I agree that there are very specific huge social problems in France. Very avowed state secularism and the largest, often socially disenfranchised-feeling Muslim population in Europe are not a good mix.
LePen will only rub salt in the wounds and make it all worse, though.
Given what we have learnt about Russian treatment of Ukrainian civilians, "deported" is, to me, starting to sound like the Germans talking about "resettlement" of Jews.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=world+tourism+rankings
I have no idea why you seem to like Paris, it's a dump with not very good food. France has got so much to offer, Paris isn't even close to the top of their list.
Which is rather different from previous voter psychology, methinks, when may voters (including some of the above) were afraid/leery of voting for Le Pen at all.
Partly the change reflects softening of her image & message, but think mostly because of increased anti-establishment public opinion, even among folks who are generally pro-establishmentarians.
That's my theory, anyway, and sticking to it for now.
BTW, I have used the same logic with my own vote in past primaries, particularly when it seemed certain that what you might call my ultimate choice would make the general election ballot.
Do you think you might be over-egging the omelette?
https://twitter.com/jennygshao/status/1511435186239541248?s=21&t=XAFNmqc3-W-QXzdojEwIDQ
https://twitter.com/streetpeoplela/status/1509302063125082113?s=21&t=XAFNmqc3-W-QXzdojEwIDQ
Incroyable
That’s fine. I’ve no urgent need to share Paris (or France) with the sort of people who complain about “shit-ache” mushrooms.
I prefer London as it is more interesting and exhilarating (and probably has better food, now), but Paris is still uniquely glorious at its best
If it happens, it would be the outcome of a democratic process - as was the election of Donald Trump in 2016, and as was Brexit.
The real problem is that there is an attempt to cast lots of popular political movements as being toxic, extreme, barbaric - indicative of a descent into fascism and a new dark age.
But these movements often represent the views of something like 50% of the population, who have the same fears about the direction of society under supposedly liberal, enlightened governments.
Until such point as both sides can coexist and work with each other, we are in deep trouble, and will never get out of the self destructive polarisation.
Whilst we are obviously not voting in the French election, both my wife and I were pretty impressed by Zemmour - we could see exactly why educated people would vote for him or Le Pen.
I would probably vote for Macron if I had to choose, but it would be mainly because of the links between Le Pen/Zemmour and Putin, which are in my view intolerable, given what has gone on in Ukraine.
The former president endorsed a 26-year-old who lives hours away from the congressional district he's running in.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/07/north-carolina-house-donald-trump-00023643
. . . Through newspaper advertisements, email blasts and door-knocking, some local Republicans are trying to spread the word that Hines, Trump’s favored candidate in the 13th Congressional District, is a carpetbagger. In their view, the former president was misguided in endorsing Hines over homegrown conservatives invested in local party politics.
The revolt against Trump by conservatives who adore him, while rare, isn’t the first of its kind this year. Trump has issued scores of midterm endorsements, in some cases for candidates who are all but unknown to local GOP officials and activists.
“It feels like it’s incumbent on us to make sure everybody understands that Bo Hines may be a fine fellow — I don’t know him — but the truth of it is he’s not a resident of the district,” said Linwood Parker, chair of the Johnston County Republican Men’s Organization and former mayor of Four Oaks. “He’s coming in, just trying to cherry pick a district he can win.” . . .
The conservative men’s group, which formed last fall and meets in an outbuilding behind a Four Oaks gas station on the second Saturday of the month, is not endorsing any particular candidate in the race. Parker cited three other Republicans on the primary ballot who are from the district, who he believes would better represent voters’ interests.
Trump is set to appear in the eastern North Carolina county this weekend to rally on behalf of Hines and two other endorsed candidates ahead of the state’s May 17 primary. For Senate, Trump’s support is behind Rep. Ted Budd, who struggled in recent months to take the lead over former Gov. Pat McCrory, but has turned a corner as outside spending has skyrocketed in his favor. Also booked for the rally is Rep. Madison Cawthorn, the freshman congressman from the western part of the state who has angered top House Republicans after talking about orgies and cocaine. . . .
Who wants to be, that 45's carpetbagging pride & joy is also a Putinist giving aid & comfort NOT to Ukraine?
If Sunak did not have such a tin ear for how people feel at the moment about inflation, rising taxes, increasing bills etc, this might have less traction.