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No more polls after tomorrow in the French election – politicalbetting.com
No more polls after tomorrow in the French election – politicalbetting.com
One of the ways that French election law operates differently from other countries is that opinion polls are banned for the final two days of the campaign. So the polls that will be published tomorrow will be the final ones and be those which will determine how well each pollster has done.
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But it is 'Marine' not Marie (that was her dad)
(Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen)
There are a few 'privatised' operators still.
But many of them have had to be bailed out by the public and renationalised.
Funny old world.
Nice little earner.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512024792270053377
"the war situation has developed not necessarily to {Russia}'s advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest."
Also don't forget the shambles that was Metronet.
It's a funny old world indeed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/07/french-election-2022-dispatch-nantes-crime-wave-enters-le-pen/
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1511754788307939329
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/apr/07/premier-league-curse-manager-of-the-month-award
Yet still the PB Franchising Fans go out to bat for a shambolic system that even the Tory government has binned.
(It is anyway, for a number of other reasons. But that's an important one.)
Residents are confined to their homes, banned from leaving for even essential reasons such as grocery shopping.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61019975
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
·
3h
In key cities of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, mass evacuation of civilians.
Local authorities call an everyone to leave while it’s still possible.
I’m afraid cities like Severodonetsk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk will be largely ruined.
A big battle is gathering.
It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….
https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1511964400978214912
Confirming what I was sort-of conjecturing on PT, non domicile status looks open to Q
But here's a little pointer: think about what the causal factors for accidents and incidents are, and which are rooted in infrastructure or other causes.
Besides, even setting that aside, your argument fails in other ways as well.
Just another post to recommend this Ukraine fundraiser. To my mind, having looked in to all the options, my conclusion is taking vanload after vanload full of dried food and sleeping bags, bought in bulk and heavily discounted, and hand delivered to the Ukrainian army in Lviv is about the most efficient, productive and legal way that we as individuals can contribute to the war effort. Not a charity, but run by a respected ex military consultant and backed by a number of Scottish businesses.
BTW, you might want to know I've been banging on about a concessionary model for as long as I've been on PB...
Horrifying, harrowing and at times completely jaw-dropping. At the end of episode two I was very nearly in tears.
And so, the uplands of mid-Wales are sprouting wind-farms (with no benefit for the locals).
Most are run by a company called Bute Empire, I mean Bute Energy, based in Edinburgh and London,
And people still disputes that Wales is a colony run for the benefit of others ...
@MarkHertling
·
20h
When RU finds a weak spot, their doctrine in to use LOTS of artillery to make the weak spot bigger and then send lots of fast moving forces (that is, tanks) through.
Holding the "shoulders" with other forces.
Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
·
20h
BTW, before we leave breakthrough, Brusilov & his followers say RU must use massive artillery on enemy positions OR use *battlefield tactical nuclear weapons* to create a breakthrough when gaps are found by the RIF .
Again, theoretical...but that scares the crap out of me. 13/
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1511725338073698307
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-blocked-plan-increase-energy-bill-rebate-leaked-document-shows-1561790
I reckon that IF she makes the final two, Macron will beat her 60:40, perhaps by more.
That's why everyone was mad keen on Davy Crockett (and it's kin) - for about 10 minutes. Tactical nukes were conceived of as super concentrated artillery. Could do the work of X divisions worth of artillery with a single bang...
In the case of Sunak there's so much ammo that it doesn't take a lot. He's wide open to getting taken down. The completely wrong person for the current climate.
David Canzini has made quite an impression since he joined No. 10 as the Prime Minister’s deputy chief of staff in February. He’s there not just to provide focus but to make the operation feel a bit more traditionally Tory.
Shoring up Johnson was never going to be simple. Downing Street now has a plan for his survival – but even if all his advisers start carrying Conservative membership cards, it won’t be possible to take the whole party with them.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-changing-face-of-no-10
Asked what difference killing Sir David would make, he said: "For one, he can't vote again.
"If he had previous for doing votes like that he won't do it in the future, and perhaps send a message to his colleagues."
He added: "So hopefully, he won't be able to harm Muslims in that regard."
So not because Angela Rayner said that Tories were scum.
His statements have less value than those, say, published in the Daily Mail.
One of the most fervent supporters of the Davy Crockett was West Germany's defense minister Franz Josef Strauss, in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Strauss promoted the idea of equipping German brigades with the nuclear weapon, to be supplied by the US, arguing that this would allow German troops to become a much more effective factor in NATO's defense of Germany against a potential Soviet invasion. He argued that a single Davy Crockett could replace 40–50 salvos of a whole divisional artillery park – allowing the funds and troops normally needed for this artillery to be invested into further troops, or not having to be spent at all. US NATO commanders strongly opposed Strauss's ideas, as they would have made the use of tactical nuclear weapons almost mandatory in case of war, further reducing the ability of NATO to defend itself without resorting to atomic weapons.
“The Tory position on trans is indistinguishable from the Labour one. Rachel Reeves said very similar stuff last week.
Oh, and @Leon very valid questions about women;'s rights are NOT the stuff of 'culture wars' as you put it. For such a bright and interesting guy, you can be an effing idiot at times. “
++++
Don’t be bloody stupid. Of course trans issues are an integral part of the whole cavalcade of wokeness, AKA identity politics and critical race theory and queer theory and the rest - and thus part of the culture war we need to wage against this growing madness
Here, look, to finally answer “what is Woke”, someone has actually done a handy guide, so the question need never be asked again
https://twitter.com/peterboghossian/status/1458781564964331520?s=21&t=RS_kLOIdWnFySfln3as4BA
https://www.prweek.com/article/1752093/downing-street-hires-ex-home-office-news-uk-content-chief-head-digital
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-61024415
His past pronouncements on the meaning of "proven reserves" of various materials comes to mind...
According to flow chart one on this govt website, nobody with settled long term plans to stay in the UK should be a non-dom. If the Chancellor's wife has no settled long term plans to be in the UK then that is a rather odd state of affairs isn't it?
Story by Simon Neville, also printed in every single local paper in the country.
Simon Neville works for the Evening Standard.
I wonder who owns the Evening Standard, and whether the owner owes any favours to anyone.
The question must be asked, however, is whether Boris, his team, Number 10, anyone at the top of the Tory party knew any of this beforehand?
I imagine they did NOT know the Winchester stuff. That is very obscure (but damaging). The non-dom stuff is huge and obvious - a billionaire wife not paying tax? How can you possibly have a CHANCELLOR, who raises tax on all of us, and demands that we pay, enjoying an easy life, in that situation?
Ridiculous. If the Tories knew this, they were grossly incompetent in appointing him. If they didn’t know, they were also grossly incompetent. Idiots
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1511901918905638915/photo/1
It was an interesting variation in MAD - make *all war in Germany* a nuclear war.
The background - the Soviet "conventional" plan was to drench the battle field (and all the supply depots) in nerve gas. Persistent nerve agents at that. They are the fun ones, where, weeks later, you touch the *underside* of a fence rail (not washed off by the rain). And drop down, writhing on the ground.
This would kill, probably, something north of 10% of the German civilian population. Some say 25%.
So a conversional war, for Germany, would consist of a mass slaughter of Germans. So how to make no-one want to start a war in Germany?
Also the Winchester magazine.....definite tip off from somebody in the know. There is no way somebody from the press is digging through 2 year old magazines that have 1 sentence about him on page 46.
And now day 3, a leak from within government to highlight Sunak rejected a bigger rebate.
This is coordinated...and everything points to somebody in government.
https://data.barbour-abi.com/smart-map/repd/beis/?type=repd
Select onshore wind-farms. Select operational.
Now, look at the map and tell me which areas are devoid of wind-farms.
Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland must easily have three or four times as many wind-farms as the whole of England.
Look at the South East. Look at the South of England. Look at the English counties just next to Powys, Herefordshire, Shropshire. Look at the Pennines. Virtually no wind-farms.
I have no objections to wind-farms in Wales if it is benefitting Wales. It is not.
The profits are outsourced elsewhere. We are left with the turbines & no doubt the de-commissioning costs.
England as usual is exploiting its neighbour.
Which is... let's say, somewhat at odds with the general views on gender equality usually held by many of those people making the argument.
Rarely has a bed been so well and truly shat. I hope OGH laid off that 250/1 shot.
Just stupid
“Domicile is a weird one. For example if you are claiming non-Dom and the tax bods find that you’ve bought yourself a nice burial plot in say, Richmond Yorkshire, then they can say “hang on - you really do see this as your home”.
It’s not just about where you live and educate kids etc. it’s possible that Mr and Mrs Sunak could say that Mrs S is keeping her Indian situation as is because they made a deal that he gets to have his political career and when it’s over (maybe this year…..) they will be moving the family to India so that their children benefit from absorbing that side of the family culture - very hard to prove otherwise until after it doesn’t happen.”
So it’s not altogether weird that the Chancellor’s wife doesn’t necessarily have long term settled plans to live in the UK. They might have a family plan to move to India, or do a Clegg and move to California.
They are an immensely wealthy “global” family who will have the ability and opportunity and maybe even the desire to spend their twilight years elsewhere than sunny Yorkshire. So she does really have every right to leave her future options open.
That chip on your shoulder, you better check it's not made from English potatoes.
"Guardiola is an outlier in the sense that he is the only manager to have won his next game after receiving the award."
"The prize has been given out eight times and the various newly crowned managers have picked up only eight points from a possible 24 in their next fixtures, the sort of form associated with relegation stragglers."
Typical. Wolves don't even get a mention. MOTM Jan. Lose next two games to Norwich and Arsenal both at home.
The wife of the CHANCELLOR?
Incidentally, in answer to the question why do mega-rich people try and avoid tax so strenuously, when they can easily afford it, a friend of mine - who is literally married to a billionairess (her extended family is even richer) explained this to me the other day
What happens is that a clever person comes to you and says, Oh, by the way, did you realise that if you do THIS, THIS and THIS, you can avoid £20 million in tax this year?
Even the ultra-rich find that psychologically hard to resist. Twenty million quid. In one year? What happens if something terrible happens and I suddenly need that twenty million after all? A coup? An asteroid? A plague?
And so the rich person says Yes to the clever person, and off they go down the road of tax minimization, which then conjures a life of its own: more people get involved, more schemes are devised, it gets more complex, the taxman takes an interest, more schemes are needed, and so on and so forth. My friend says he’s seen members of this family spend fruitless weeks sorting their finances when they are stupidly, stupidly rich, and could thus enjoy one of the great benefits of wealth - NOT having to worry about money. Yet they do not enjoy this benefit
I found his argument plausible - and consoling
Why should she pay UK tax on income derived from India - that never goes in to the UK?
What moral or practical claim does the UK government actually have on that money?
By all means pry in to her affairs on the basis that she is a public figure, but her situation should be treated on its merits.
Having looked in to this a bit myself just now.... in India it seems that a company paying out a dividend needs to pay a 'dividend distribution tax' of 15%.
Then, a high earner, pays tax at 20%, on the actual dividend.
So the actual exposure to tax on money distributed by dividend, is effectively 35%.
It is not that different to the tax rate on dividends for higher rate tax payers in the Uk, at 39.35%.
There are other variables as well... corporation tax (which has to be paid before any dividends are paid) is higher in India, than the UK.
I don't think anyone could look in to this situation, and honestly conclude that - in the grand scheme of things - it is fair that she should be paying yet more tax to the UK government.
Much of the criticism is based on spite and jealously, and just pure hatred of the wealthy.
e.g. Old jug ears is of course sticking his oar in over Sunak (as he does with every story these days), while is he in a multi-year dispute with the tax man over his own affairs.
Also, try overlaying a contour map, or looking at windy.com every day for a month.
Mind you he's usually good for a year or so and his ability to pick losers is legendary.
It's worth remembering that modern offshore wind is fairly new, and the price is still coming down. There is more than enough capacity in offshore for any amount of wind power the UK is ever likely to want - we will need storage/base load as well, of course.
The faux outrage by some about bringing Sunaks wife into this is laughable given they would have been all over this if it had been someone from the opposition.
More to the point, try overloading a map of Tory constituencies.
What fraction of the UK's wind-farms are in Tory constituencies in England?
Incredibly, it looks like < 10 per cent!
Your point is a bad one, though. It's not mainly about "fair in the grand scheme of things," it's about adhering to the rules, as in lockdown parties. Also, it makes it worse not better if she's prepared to stiff us for a measly 4.35% less the 60k non dom fee.
So, source?
Life is simple for people who just live in one country, you can manage your tax affairs yourself easily. As soon as you start living in two countries or owning property overseas, it gets very complicated.
These are not dilemmas unique to the ultra rich, by any means.
Remember the land had a use before wind-farms -- usually farming. So there is the loss of agricultural land/jobs (& possibly also tourism jobs).
The employment benefit for locals for wind-farms is marginal, maybe even negative.
But I found this interesting on the topic of Welsh devolution and New Labour. I'm sure you're au fait with it all but a good listen.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/podcasts-and-videos/podcasts/the-lrb-podcast/what-the-welsh-got-right
https://order-order.com/2022/04/07/boris-keep-the-wives-out-of-it/
I don't think that is a bug, I think its an upgraded feature to the Starmerbot....its straight out of the New Labour playbook. If you watched most New Labour era politicians full interviews it was the same, slogan, slogan, slogan, same line to take, repeated 27 times, all repeated exactly regardless of the minister saying it.
Other than oldies stuck infront of their tellies for 12hrs a day, nobody watches the actual interview, they just hear the 10s soundbite.