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No more polls after tomorrow in the French election – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MattW said:

    I'd say the issue is that Planning means they will be no quicker than other renewables, and economics / small turbines means they will hardly be cheaper for the consumer.

    Dale Vince of Ecotricity was on Sky earlier demanding that letting him build onshore wind farms would reduce the price of electricity.

    But AIUI in the UK unit, the price is set by the "marginal" unit ie the one that meets the last bit of demand, once the generation sources have been sorted from low to high by various criteria.

    So he won't be meeting his claim unless he builds enough to swamp the market, or the regulatory setup is changed.

    https://www.edfenergy.com/large-business/talk-power/newsletter/wholesale-energy-costs-made-simple

    Does anyone know different, this being quite a complex subject?

    If anyone wants to keep their bill down, it is back to the reduce / reuse coalface, applied to power and energy, as it has always been.
    As an aside, I would expect that makers of wind turbines are highly likely to be rather capacity constrained right now, because *everyone* will be wanting to buy new turbines.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    HYUFD said:

    Tim Montgomerie asks for prayers for Dominic Cummings, as he will be distraught at the collapse of Rishi4Leader

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1512057963481083906?s=20&t=9DTA_oTGourMfpWs4HGKeg

    Or will it simply poke the Big Dom hornets nest again....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    edited April 2022

    Sunak is obviously now dead in the water so far as the leadership is concerned. I wonder if at the next reshuffle he'll stand down from the cabinet and leave politics at the next GE. The dream is over - UK's first BAME PM. What is there to look forward to now?

    I've felt for quite a while - before Ukraine - that Ben Wallace was being overlooked as a potential successor to Boris. He will go down very well with Tory members and looks very competent and reliable. Hopefully he doesn't have a billionaire wife either.
    Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician, it seems? But probably in his best role now, given his military career. Rather lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff

    Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)

    Nope. Can’t see it

    I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751
    Leon said:

    Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician? Probably in his best role, given his military career. But lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff

    Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)

    Nope. Can’t see it

    I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
    Also the most likely to blow up, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751
    Approx 90% of civilians that Russian occupiers killed in Bucha were shot by bullets, not killed by artillery - mayor Fedoruk

    Ppl tried to bury bodies so they wouldn't be eaten by dogs

    As of 6 Apr, bodies of 320 civilians were recovered, search ongoing
    https://dw.com/ru/mjer-buchi-chislo-obnaruzhennyh-tel-rastet-s-kazhdym-dnem/a-61385416?fbclid=IwAR2u71DCViDX7myC6DKsXbACf6phHp_EL1K9aYGo1LKWbPvpGhcTb9vgFak

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1512051183317393409
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician? Probably in his best role, given his military career. But lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff

    Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)

    Nope. Can’t see it

    I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
    Wallace has higher approval ratings than Truss and Hunt with Yougov. He is also in the Cabinet unlike Mordaunt now.

    Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ha!

    It’s been reported that the Chancellor’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is not tax domiciled in the UK. This has been confirmed by a statement issued on her behalf. But I think the statement of facts issued by her is wrong. And I also suggest HMRC could challenge this claim. A thread….

    https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1511964400978214912

    Confirming what I was sort-of conjecturing on PT, non domicile status looks open to Q

    If you need to reach for Professor Murphaloon, it's usually a flag of an absence of evidence.

    It's well over a decade since he was launching voluminous broadsides against banks for not paying enough taxes, whilst completely forgetting to mention that they had made losses of billions the previous year.

    The latest I saw was him calculating recently how much the country was paying for energy by taking the fixed rate bill he had been offered for his house where his family live in Downham Market of "around £3000", and applying that universally.

    (Fixed rate bills are not regulated by Ofgem, and are currently about 40-50% higher than the regulated "cap" for the same households on a variable tariff. For an average household, the capped bill is £1971 per annum, as we know.)

    The thread is here. It is full of other bizarre assumptions.
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502671563530948610.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Am I right in thinking that you have to pay tax on all your worldwide income in the US if you live in the US? Wouldn't this put us at a major disadvantage since we allow people who are resident here to pay their tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    HYUFD said:

    Wallace has higher approval ratings than all 3 of those with Yougov.

    Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
    Yes, Wallace seems mostly sane and vaguely competent, which puts him streets ahead of his rivals in the PCP.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,322
    HYUFD said:

    Tim Montgomerie asks for prayers for Dominic Cummings, as he will be distraught at the collapse of Rishi4Leader

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1512057963481083906?s=20&t=9DTA_oTGourMfpWs4HGKeg

    Boris Johnson's fiendish wheezes to stifle his opponents is quite reminiscent of the Wacky Races... and what happened to Dick Dastardly at the end of each episode?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Am I right in thinking that you have to pay tax on all your worldwide income in the US if you live in the US? Wouldn't this put us at a major disadvantage since we allow people who are resident here to pay their tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction?

    Not just if you live in the US. Also if you're a US citizen living anywhere else. The only way to get out of it is to renounce citizenship.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    Wallace has higher approval ratings than Truss and Hunt with Yougov. He is also in the Cabinet unlike Mordaunt now.

    Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
    Isn't Tugendhat more likely than Wallace?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    HYUFD said:

    Wallace has higher approval ratings than all 3 of those with Yougov.

    Tory leaders often go charismatic then dull. Wallace is the anti Boris, dull but serious and decent and hardworking, if not naturally gifted. He is an excellent bet
    Can you imagine the tedium of British politics if we end up with Starmer versus Wallace. With Ed Davey in the wings

    Fuck me

    I know we all want a calmer period in political life, but that’s not a calmer period, that’s a desperate torpor of wrist-slitting tedium
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Am I right in thinking that you have to pay tax on all your worldwide income in the US if you live in the US? Wouldn't this put us at a major disadvantage since we allow people who are resident here to pay their tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction?

    Not really, we have a double taxation treaty with the US. Income earned here is taxed here and then knocked off their potential US tax liability. In reality UK taxes are much higher anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    Farooq said:

    Ad hom. Other commentators have been questioning this too.
    I would simply say that Richard Murphy = no data

    Just as I would say that Daily Mail opinion columns = no data.

    In both cases, they might be right. But the past history suggests that quality is low.

    In this case we need an analysis from a reliable expert with accounting and legal training - for the legal status

    Political status = Rishi Fail.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MaxPB said:

    Not really, we have a double taxation treaty with the US. Income earned here is taxed here and then knocked off their potential US tax liability. In reality UK taxes are much higher anyway.
    It's a little worse than that, because you essentially pay the higher of the two rates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    rcs1000 said:

    It's a little worse than that, because you essentially pay the higher of the two rates.

    Aren’t the Feds famously ruthless in hunting down all your foreign earnings? More than HMRC?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Andy_JS said:

    Isn't Tugendhat more likely than Wallace?
    Wallace has high approval ratings with Conservative members.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Not just if you live in the US. Also if you're a US citizen living anywhere else. The only way to get out of it is to renounce citizenship.
    Which is very hard to do, apparently.

    I have heard (not sure if true) it’s almost as hard to lose US citizenship as to gain US citizenship, if not harder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    Leon said:

    Can you imagine the tedium of British politics if we end up with Starmer versus Wallace. With Ed Davey in the wings

    Fuck me

    I know we all want a calmer period in political life, but that’s not a calmer period, that’s a desperate torpor of wrist-slitting tedium
    Maybe Nige but then fancy another go and come back and lead RefUK if you want excitement once Boris has gone?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Leon said:

    Can you imagine the tedium of British politics if we end up with Starmer versus Wallace. With Ed Davey in the wings

    Fuck me

    I know we all want a calmer period in political life, but that’s not a calmer period, that’s a desperate torpor of wrist-slitting tedium
    Most of us gain our excitement in life from sources other than middle-aged politicians. You might be different.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    Andy_JS said:

    Isn't Tugendhat more likely than Wallace?
    No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.

    I would be happy with either though
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    ⚡️Kharkiv Oblast governor: Mayor of Balakliia fled to Russia.

    Oleh Synehubov told ICTV that Balakliia Mayor Ivan Stolbovyi had fled to Russia with his family. Synehubov said the mayor is under investigation. He earlier accused Stolbovyi of collaborating with the Russian forces.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1512056220953288709
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    Leon said:

    Can you imagine the tedium of British politics if we end up with Starmer versus Wallace. With Ed Davey in the wings

    Fuck me

    I know we all want a calmer period in political life, but that’s not a calmer period, that’s a desperate torpor of wrist-slitting tedium
    From Wiki (on Wallace):

    "From 1991 to 1998, he served in Germany, Cyprus, Belize, and Northern Ireland, rising to the rank of captain. During his time in Northern Ireland, he was mentioned in dispatches in 1992 for an incident in which the patrol he was commanding captured an entire IRA active service unit attempting to carry out a bomb attack against British troops."

    I chanced to hear a radio profile on him a few weeks back. Apparently he was a heroic drinker in his younger days, according to soldier mate. And a risk taker when necessary. Worked hard, and played very hard. Won much respect etc.

    Not so dull, really.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Leon said:


    Aren’t the Feds famously ruthless in hunting down all your foreign earnings? More than HMRC?
    I have solved that problem by scrupulously reporting all my foreign income :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    MaxPB said:

    Not really, we have a double taxation treaty with the US. Income earned here is taxed here and then knocked off their potential US tax liability. In reality UK taxes are much higher anyway.
    Except for things like Capital Gains on house sales (for example). This caught Boris Johnson out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    rcs1000 said:

    It's a little worse than that, because you essentially pay the higher of the two rates.
    Indeed. My American friends are always shocked at how high taxes are in the UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224

    Which is very hard to do, apparently.

    I have heard (not sure if true) it’s almost as hard to lose US citizenship as to gain US citizenship, if not harder.
    Nope - it is quite easy to renounce.

    The idea is it "difficult" comes from the fact that you have to have a complete set of US tax returns filed for the last x years first - think it was 7 when I did it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    "Wealth-income mismatch: The curious case of India's missing millionaires"

    While India had 764,000 dollar-millionaires in 2019 by one account, just 316,000 filed tax returns declaring income of over $75,000. Large-scale [Income Tax] evasion may still be taking place, notes T N Ninan.


    https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/wealth-income-mismatch-the-curious-case-of-india-s-missing-millionaires-122032500993_1.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813

    Most of us gain our excitement in life from sources other than middle-aged politicians. You might be different.
    You misconstrue me. I am not looking for “excitement” in my politics. I find plenty of that elsewhere, as may be obvious

    What I am looking for are politicians who have a spark of imagination and creativity, who look like they will being new ideas, passion, vigour. Because we desperately need that: to overcome our many problems

    I thought Boris might be the one to do it. He is full of imagination (as well as greed, lust, mendacity, the rest). But he is too chaotic and incapable of focus, he has too MANY mad ideas

    I get a sense that Truss might just have that fresh perspective, with the will to see it through. Dunno. I might also be hopecasting





  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    MaxPB said:

    Indeed. My American friends are always shocked at how high taxes are in the UK.
    As we would be at how high taxes are in Sweden.

    I would imagine they would be more shocked though if the lived in Texas than Massachussetts
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    rcs1000 said:

    I have solved that problem by scrupulously reporting all my foreign income :smile:
    Bet yo have fun with the Foreign Controlled Corporations thing....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Which is very hard to do, apparently.

    I have heard (not sure if true) it’s almost as hard to lose US citizenship as to gain US citizenship, if not harder.
    Nah renouncing is easy, just a form and some tax returns. I know a few who have done this rather than become dual national UK/US.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Bloody hell this Ukrainian video needs to be seen by everyone

    https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1512064908199751682
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    HYUFD said:

    No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.

    I would be happy with either though
    Wallace is also Remain


    There will come a time in Tory politics - soon, I hope - when this dichotomy won’t matter. But we are not there yet. It matters
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2022

    Bloody hell this Ukrainian video needs to be seen by everyone

    https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1512064908199751682

    Ukrainian PR and propaganda campaign is top notch.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    France, Atlas Politico poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
    Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%

    Macron (EC-RE): 54%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
    Sample size: N/A
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Farooq said:

    In the same way that we're shocked by the fact you have to pay $8000 to give birth in a hospital in the US etc.
    Me, I'd take the higher taxes.
    I doubt it, they all have health insurance through their employers. As always, the US is a society of haves and have nots.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,277
    HYUFD said:

    Tim Montgomerie asks for prayers for Dominic Cummings, as he will be distraught at the collapse of Rishi4Leader

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1512057963481083906?s=20&t=9DTA_oTGourMfpWs4HGKeg

    So Dom thinks non dom scandal stops Dom's man and his non dom wife from helping Dom return to no 10?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813

    From Wiki (on Wallace):

    "From 1991 to 1998, he served in Germany, Cyprus, Belize, and Northern Ireland, rising to the rank of captain. During his time in Northern Ireland, he was mentioned in dispatches in 1992 for an incident in which the patrol he was commanding captured an entire IRA active service unit attempting to carry out a bomb attack against British troops."

    I chanced to hear a radio profile on him a few weeks back. Apparently he was a heroic drinker in his younger days, according to soldier mate. And a risk taker when necessary. Worked hard, and played very hard. Won much respect etc.

    Not so dull, really.
    Respect for anyone who has served and faced actual bullets, of course

    I still don’t see him as PM material
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    You misconstrue me. I am not looking for “excitement” in my politics. I find plenty of that elsewhere, as may be obvious

    What I am looking for are politicians who have a spark of imagination and creativity, who look like they will being new ideas, passion, vigour. Because we desperately need that: to overcome our many problems

    I thought Boris might be the one to do it. He is full of imagination (as well as greed, lust, mendacity, the rest). But he is too chaotic and incapable of focus, he has too MANY mad ideas

    I get a sense that Truss might just have that fresh perspective, with the will to see it through. Dunno. I might also be hopecasting





    Mordaunt v Rayner or Nandy could create that, but I suspect that Starmer may win and settle in for a bit first, as the stabilising influence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    HYUFD said:

    No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.

    I would be happy with either though
    "I wonder if at the next reshuffle he'll stand down from the cabinet and leave politics at the next GE."

    Yep. As I posted a few days ago after the most tin-eared budget anyone can remember: he will not be an MP in five years time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    edited April 2022

    From Wiki (on Wallace):

    "From 1991 to 1998, he served in Germany, Cyprus, Belize, and Northern Ireland, rising to the rank of captain. During his time in Northern Ireland, he was mentioned in dispatches in 1992 for an incident in which the patrol he was commanding captured an entire IRA active service unit attempting to carry out a bomb attack against British troops."

    I chanced to hear a radio profile on him a few weeks back. Apparently he was a heroic drinker in his younger days, according to soldier mate. And a risk taker when necessary. Worked hard, and played very hard. Won much respect etc.

    Not so dull, really.
    Indeed, albeit IDS also served in the army as a captain in Northern Ireland and Zimbabwe
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    Farooq said:

    Have you thought of looking outside of politics for your entertainment?
    I hear Channel 4 has some good programmes..
    You only ever hear that Channel 4 has some good programmes. No first hand accounts....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,322

    There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.

    It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.

    And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.

    So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.

    Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
    Off Topic

    Hmmm.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.

    The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084

    France, Atlas Politico poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
    Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%

    Macron (EC-RE): 54%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
    Sample size: N/A

    Alarm bells ringing at Macron HQ
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    France, Atlas Politico poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
    Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%

    Macron (EC-RE): 54%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
    Sample size: N/A

    Crossover!
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    Alarm bells ringing at Macron HQ
    First round is also:

    Macron 27%
    Le Pen 20.7%
    Melenchon 18.1%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BBC Fact checks the “Ukrainians shooting Russian soldiers” video - appears legit:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61025388
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    HYUFD said:

    Alarm bells ringing at Macron HQ
    Time to dust down the hoodie....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813

    France, Atlas Politico poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
    Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%

    Macron (EC-RE): 54%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
    Sample size: N/A

    HaHahhahahahah

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    They will now officially be wearing adult nappies at the Elysee

    For the purposes of clarity, I am not joyously laughing at the idea of Le Pen as POTFR (tho I don’t think she’s be anything like as bad as some fear) I AM laughing at the idea of that pompous vain popinjay, E Macron, getting the scare of his life

    I am also still fairly sure he will win
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    I dunno. If I was worth, say, a billion, I’d just hire a solid reputable accountant and say: minimise my taxes, but don’t go overboard, and leave it at that

    I’d probably end up paying £10mn a year rather than the possibly optimum, fuck-the-taxman £5mn? But I would calm myself by remembering I am worth £1bn so it is peanuts. And I would get on with my life not having to give another thought to money, which is a marvellous thing, and surely the greatest boon of serious wealth (unless you actually enjoy playing with money, and some do - I don’t)
    If you had a billion, and it was productively invested at 7% return, you would have an income of £70 million. Hard to see how you could get away with paying £10 million, never mind £5 million. You would probably expect to pay about a third, so about £20 million. But even to get to that point, you would have to be structuring the investments in a tax efficient way and taking advantage of legal schemes, such as the non domicile arrangement - which then open you up to accusations of tax avoidance. If you just say 'im going to pay whatever the tax rate is', then you could end up just paying eye watering and painful amounts of tax. I am not an expert, and certainly not wealthy, but have gone through enough of this to see the problem.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    You only ever hear that Channel 4 has some good programmes. No first hand accounts....
    That's coz nobody will own up to watching Naked Attraction.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Alarm bells ringing at Macron HQ
    The thing is, traditionally these are the kind of polls in France that bring out a huge anti-FN turnout. As I result I doubt the Macron camp will be too unhappy to see them coming out at this particular time, on the eve of polling.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,854

    First round is also:

    Macron 27%
    Le Pen 20.7%
    Melenchon 18.1%
    I've seen a few French people who sense that Macron is doomed say that the only way to stop Le Pen is in the first round.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    Off Topic

    Hmmm.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.

    The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
    Mown grass = shit habitat

    Brambles and nettles = good habitat
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    First round is also:

    Macron 27%
    Le Pen 20.7%
    Melenchon 18.1%
    Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    Leon said:

    Wallace is also Remain


    There will come a time in Tory politics - soon, I hope - when this dichotomy won’t matter. But we are not there yet. It matters
    Yes, but I think he was very much part of Team Boris which may help if BJ is defenestrated. Readymade team of loyalists on hand.

    Have you noticed how recent PMs have alternated between the charismatic and the dull/worthy? An iron law?

    Thatcher/Major
    Blair/Brown
    Cameron/May
    Johnson/??
  • That's coz nobody will own up to watching Naked Attraction.
    Load of bollocks, innit?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    MaxPB said:

    Wonder if Macron will take the risk of trying to shift Melenchon into second place by getting his voters to lend their votes to him. Would be risky as he may end up not making the final two and Melenchon could end up doing a Jez and actually winning.
    It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526

    Yes, but I think he was very much part of Team Boris which may help if BJ is defenestrated. Readymade team of loyalists on hand.

    Have you noticed how recent PMs have alternated between the charismatic and the dull/worthy? An iron law?

    Thatcher/Major
    Blair/Brown
    Cameron/May
    Johnson/??
    Jeremy Hunt waves...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Andy_JS said:

    Not just if you live in the US. Also if you're a US citizen living anywhere else. The only way to get out of it is to renounce citizenship.
    Like what Boris did.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    darkage said:

    If you had a billion, and it was productively invested at 7% return, you would have an income of £70 million. Hard to see how you could get away with paying £10 million, never mind £5 million. You would probably expect to pay about a third, so about £20 million. But even to get to that point, you would have to be structuring the investments in a tax efficient way and taking advantage of legal schemes, such as the non domicile arrangement - which then open you up to accusations of tax avoidance. If you just say 'im going to pay whatever the tax rate is', then you could end up just paying eye watering and painful amounts of tax. I am not an expert, and certainly not wealthy, but have gone through enough of this to see the problem.
    No

    If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold

    I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye

    Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Leon said:

    No

    If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold

    I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye

    Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
    Are you telling us that as a internationally recognised Flint knapper you don't make that sort of money already?
  • I see sea! I thought I would have seen it about five miles back, but every view was blocked by a house built for a sea view..

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    Wallace has high approval ratings with Conservative members.
    I think it is the approval rating among Tory MPs that matters. They control which two candidates go to members. That's why Truss won't make it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    I've seen a few French people who sense that Macron is doomed say that the only way to stop Le Pen is in the first round.
    A good opportunity for you to make some money off them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    Ukrainian PR and propaganda campaign is top notch.
    Quite easy to miss, but the EU flag on the petrol station is quite a thing. And the smugly smiley station customers. Unanswerable really.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,277
    edited April 2022
    darkage said:

    If you had a billion, and it was productively invested at 7% return, you would have an income of £70 million. Hard to see how you could get away with paying £10 million, never mind £5 million. You would probably expect to pay about a third, so about £20 million. But even to get to that point, you would have to be structuring the investments in a tax efficient way and taking advantage of legal schemes, such as the non domicile arrangement - which then open you up to accusations of tax avoidance. If you just say 'im going to pay whatever the tax rate is', then you could end up just paying eye watering and painful amounts of tax. I am not an expert, and certainly not wealthy, but have gone through enough of this to see the problem.
    More likely you would have unrealised capital gain of £50m++ and income of <<£20m.

    As an example Bezos over 5 years:

    Wealth grown $99bn
    Taxable income $4.2bn
    Tax paid $1bn

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/bezos-musk-buffett-bloomberg-icahn-and-soros-pay-little-in-taxes.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    It could backfire. Melenchon is as high as 46% in some polls for the second round.
    On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2

    This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won

    However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    Leon said:

    HaHahhahahahah

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    They will now officially be wearing adult nappies at the Elysee

    For the purposes of clarity, I am not joyously laughing at the idea of Le Pen as POTFR (tho I don’t think she’s be anything like as bad as some fear) I AM laughing at the idea of that pompous vain popinjay, E Macron, getting the scare of his life

    I am also still fairly sure he will win
    Any more disclaimers and you could get a job with a bank
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Macron won Paris by a 90% to 10% margin last time, with a majority of 750,000 votes. It'll be interesting to see what happens there this time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#By_department_2
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Off Topic

    Hmmm.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council, the Vale of Glamorgan Council and Sustainable * *** who have applied to the Duchy of Lancaster to plant a forest on the rather idylic Duchy owned paddock (which for many years I tended with my ride on mower- for sale £200, spares or repairs) in front of my house in order to create a rural wasteland of brambles, nettles, litter and dog sh** over time.

    The Community Council have had to apply directly to our English overlords before they create this eyesore. I am hopeful that the Duchy will reject this hairbrained scheme. Hat tip to our English Lords and Masters in this case.
    I am shocked, Comrade.

    A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.

    It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.

    "From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].

    I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.

    What are you doing with your tree?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    On a pure Bantz Basis, it would be HILARIOUS if Macron did not even make the final 2

    This poll feels like the one that showed YES in Sindyref ahead, which made everyone crap themselves, and I feel the same result will ensue: the pendulum will swing back and Macron will win, comfortably if not easily, as NO won

    However we still have the debates. That is the grand unknown
    At this point Macron needs those debates !

    Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
  • Farooq said:

    Looks faintly like Mumbles to me
    How about this view?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,322

    Mown grass = shit habitat

    Brambles and nettles = good habitat
    Not in my back yard, or in this instance not in my front yard.

    The Community Council haven't offered the grassed areas in front of their houses for mass tree planting, although their r'aison d'etre for ruining my view is the same as yours. In my defence I have done my civic duty down at the Milennium Wood, which must be a "good habitat" because it looks overgrown and awful, particularly after the gypsy horses were illegally put into the wood to graze on the trees, and I did help my neighbour re-lay hedging in the fields behind my house.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Leon said:

    Wallace doesn’t seem papabile to me. A decent honest politician, it seems? But probably in his best role now, given his military career. Rather lacking in the charisma and leadership stuff

    Also maybe a bit dim. I don’t want to be mean, but Wiki says he went to Millfield, which is a private school famous for taking in the modestly posh but significantly stupid (Roger went there: QED)

    Nope. Can’t see it

    I agree with others who have said at the moment it is Truss, Mordaunt or Hunt, these three, and the greatest of these is Truss
    Id agree with the trio but would order them Mordaunt , Hunt and Truss last in terms of electability for the GE.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    nico679 said:

    At this point Macron needs those debates !

    Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
    Yes, remarkably. He is now, almost, the underdog. She has the big momentum. The French are clearly in a rebellious mood
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813

    Id agree with the trio but would order them Mordaunt , Hunt and Truss last in terms of electability for the GE.
    I quite like Mordaunt, as well. State school, tough backstory. Married for just one year then divorced. I sense issues, but also grit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,269
    Endillion said:

    That's my point. If you believe that, it's incompatible with the idea that Sunak is somehow responsible for his spouse's financial affairs. What's he supposed to do, order her to change her status? Beat her if she refuses?
    No, but it does limit his employment prospects in British politics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    nico679 said:

    At this point Macron needs those debates !

    Le Pen if she could would rather avoid them as she will be forced to defend her pro Putin stance .
    The problem for Macron is his phonecalls, he's constantly being trying to rehabilitate Putin. I don't think the Putin stuff really hurts Le Pen because of this, neither of them come out well at the moment. Even today Macron has been suggesting we talk to Putin despite the clear and obvious war crimes committed by Putin's forces in Bucha.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    Le Pen down to 10/3 on Bet365. Getting excruciatingly close for Macron

    Also, Melenchon is 66/1, even 100/1 in places. That also looks like VALUE, maybe, because he is only 2 points behind Le Pen in the first round polls, and if he makes it through, his price will shorten dramatically
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    No

    If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold

    I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye

    Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
    It depends on the class of income, surely. What if it's an unrealised capital gain because you own a company that has increased in value? Would you tell your accountant to pay 45% on that?

    Tax matters are always more complicated than meet the eye.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    I quite like Mordaunt, as well. State school, tough backstory. Married for just one year then divorced. I sense issues, but also grit
    Some signs of both grit and sensitivity/imagination - not a common combination in modern British politics, and I think Angela Rayner and Lisa Nandy, probably uncoicidentally also both female politicians who haven't had a picnic on their way up, also have a bit of this quality too.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    edited April 2022
    MaxPB said:

    I doubt it, they all have health insurance through their employers. As always, the US is a society of haves and have nots.
    Out of pocket expenses for families / women with health insurance giving birth average $3-5k, depending on the level of intervension required: https://ihpi.umich.edu/news/having-baby-may-cost-some-families-4500-out-pocket-study-finds

    (Figures from 2015; paper published in 2020. I imagine prices have only increased since then.)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    There is an uplift to the business rates, but my understanding is that this is not spent locally.

    It is gathered e.g., by Powys Council, who merge it with central funds.

    And then the Welsh Government's Local Government Settlement will take this additional income into account.

    So the practical benefit to the locals is almost zero.


    Yet again, I am objecting not to windfarms ... but to windfarms built in Wales with no discernible benefit to the Welsh. That is colonialism.
    But isn't the BIB the responsibility/fault of the Welsh government?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    edited April 2022


    Looks faintly like Mumbles to me

    How about this view?



    Yeah, that's pretty much Townhill. Are you in Swansea? ;)

    Palm trees in Swansea??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751
    Interesting read.
    As a Russian-speaking person of color who was born and raised in Ukraine, I believe that I am in a position to speak on the issue of nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine. A long thread ...
    https://twitter.com/mariamposts/status/1511995713135443969
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    Yes, remarkably. He is now, almost, the underdog. She has the big momentum. The French are clearly in a rebellious mood
    On the latter, I think the international "pressure" will backfire as well, just like it did here wrt Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    Farooq said:

    Yeah, that's pretty much Townhill. Are you in Swansea? ;)
    With the palms, surely Torquay?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,813
    MaxPB said:

    On the latter, I think the international "pressure" will backfire as well, just like it did here wrt Brexit.
    If Macron contrives to lose this, his decision not to really engage with the campaign, but to rise above it like the God Jupiter, will be viewed as one of the greatest and most consequential mistakes in postwar French politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,084
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Macron won Paris by a 90% to 10% margin last time, with a majority of 750,000 votes. It'll be interesting to see what happens there this time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#By_department_2

    Macron will still win Paris by a landslide v Le Pen even Le Pen gets a shock narrow win across France as a whole.

    Much as London was overwhelmingly Remain when Brexit won in the UK and overwhelmingly Labour in 2019 when Boris won a UK wide landslide and NYC was strongly for Hillary even when Trump won the US Presidency in 2016
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,322

    I am shocked, Comrade.

    A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.

    It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.

    "From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].

    I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.

    What are you doing with your tree?
    Grazing horses you say? If they do plant 150 trees in front of my house I will pin a note to the gypsy horses on Lamby Way in Cardiff inviting their owners to graze them on the land in front of my house.

    Mr Drakeford is more than welcome to have my tree and to do with it as he wishes. I have an idea as to how he can use it, I can share my idea with Mr Drakeford at any time convenient to him, it does involve him touching his toes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    I am shocked, Comrade.

    A paddock is for horses of the squirearchy. A tree is for future generations.

    It is Llafur policy to plant trees everywhere. In fact, I think Mark Drakeford is giving everyone in Wales a tree.

    "From next year, every household in Wales will get a free tree and if you live in a flat, one can be planted on your behalf" [Welsh Labour's Twitter account].

    I shall be planting my tree inside Andrew RT Davies' oesophagus.

    What are you doing with your tree?
    Wouldn't his rectum at least provide fertiliser?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751
    What seems to be recent footage from Mariupol showing Ukrainian resistance with fighting outside of the city centre, in the suburbs.
    Also, pretty ballsy taking on tanks with a BTR.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1512060297607065602
    Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    HYUFD said:

    No, too Remain and probably too posh. Wallace is posh but not that posh.

    I would be happy with either though
    Wallace = Millfield, 1SG, Father 1KDG
    Tugendhat = St.Pauls, AGC, Father son of immigrants.

    Wallace is posher.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Leon said:

    If Macron contrives to lose this, his decision not to really engage with the campaign, but to rise above it like the God Jupiter, will be viewed as one of the greatest and most consequential mistakes in postwar French politics
    Zeus alors!!!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    No

    If I was earning £70 million a year, I’d probably tell my accountant to pay the 45% tax on everything over the max tax threshold

    I’d still have £35-£40 million a year, FFS, and an entirely clean conscience. I would still be obscenely wealthy, and also able to look my fellow Brits in the eye

    Who can spend £35 million a year? How many homes do you need? Who actually needs a fucking mega-yacht?
    This is fine, if your income is all derived from the UK and you live here, you would just pay the additional rate (on dividends), which is 39.35%. But as I said, it just gets complicated when the income is derived from other countries, and you live in different countries - you inevitably get sucked in to tax planning and accusations of tax avoidance, even if you just want to pay around 39.35%, which is what you would pay were you the 'honest UK citizen who can look their fellow countrymen in the eye'. I'd hazard a guess that Sunak and his wife have basically been caught in this trap. I don't feel that sorry for them, but it would be unfortunate if his career was ruined over it; he seems ok; and there is a severe shortage of competent people willing to go in to politics.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Yes, but I think he was very much part of Team Boris which may help if BJ is defenestrated. Readymade team of loyalists on hand.

    Have you noticed how recent PMs have alternated between the charismatic and the dull/worthy? An iron law?

    Thatcher/Major
    Blair/Brown
    Cameron/May
    Johnson/??
    Starmer.

    Still value in the Next PM market even though he's clear fav now.
This discussion has been closed.