Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com

System · April 2022

Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com

Remember as we have seen from earlier polls this is as inflation/prices increasingly become the yardstick which the public are using to judge the economy, and as pessimism about the economy reaches historic lows. (2/5) pic.twitter.com/nwfgF2ATL2

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark · April 2022

Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

"I don’t wish to minify Rishi Sunak and his talents but only someone who is political tone deaf would go on holiday to their Santa Monica flat over Easter as the cost of living crisis escalates."

The problem is even if you don't, the Guardian, Mirror, Mail still run a piece saying look at this property he owns, where he normally goes for his Easter holiday. Call me Dave tried it, tried shopping in Tesco's and Morrisons and people took the piss about him faking being just a normal bloke. Cameron got himself tied in knots over trying to appear more normal than he actually was and you get this ridiculous sight of politicians trying to out do one another for the crappiest British seaside holiday they can find to prove they are more normal.

In general I think the politics of envy is overdone, its hypocrisy that people don't like e.g. Boris saying nobody meet your Gran even in the garden, before walking out the French doors to a garden "gathering".

ydoethur · April 2022

'Sunak doesn’t have the talent to be Chancellor, after all he became Chancellor because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom which really is something someone who is competent and has an ounce of dignity would be prepared to countenance.'

I'm pretty sure you're missing a 'not' in that sentence.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2022

ydoethur said:
'Sunak doesn’t have the talent to be Chancellor, after all he became Chancellor because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom which really is something someone who is competent and has an ounce of dignity would be prepared to countenance.'

I'm pretty sure you're missing a 'not' in that sentence.

Yeah, thanks for spotting my deliberate mistake, fixed now.

stodge · April 2022

Afternoon all

A lot of things are happening at once - I was reading earlier about sunflower oil and how much of it comes from Russia and the Ukraine. I then read about how of 18% of the UK's diesel comes from Russia and I'm left to muse on the impact of increased diesel prices on inflation.

Then I'm wondering how those with powerful Unions will start chasing inflation with wage claims which isn't necessarily bad news for a Conservative Government, of course.

Part of me is also wondering about whether the root cause was the sudden explosion of pent-up demand in the wake of the lifting of coronavirus restrictions. The sudden release of demand and money locked up by lock downs left the supply chains unable to cope as suddenly everyone wanted to do all the things, go to all the places and have all the experiences which they were denied in lockdown.

It's the nature of politics for the Government to cop the flak for people's anger - some of that is deserved, a lot isn't. Prices are rising everywhere (I was hearing Mrs Stodge's family in NZ complaining about inflation last evening) as economic activity is resumed. Obviously, having to pay more for everything will eat into the cash reserves built up by the home working middle classes.

TimT · April 2022

Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.

Theuniondivvie · April 2022

Innocent face etc

But I thought the Unionists won at Culloden?

Dura_Ace · April 2022

I wonder how much volition Sunak has over his vakay. There is no way his Mrs, who is used to better things, will tolerate Easter in North Yorkshire just because it looks better to the shitmunchers.

Farooq · April 2022

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.

Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.

TimT · April 2022

stodge said:
Afternoon all

A lot of things are happening at once - I was reading earlier about sunflower oil and how much of it comes from Russia and the Ukraine. I then read about how of 18% of the UK's diesel comes from Russia and I'm left to muse on the impact of increased diesel prices on inflation.

Then I'm wondering how those with powerful Unions will start chasing inflation with wage claims which isn't necessarily bad news for a Conservative Government, of course.

Part of me is also wondering about whether the root cause was the sudden explosion of pent-up demand in the wake of the lifting of coronavirus restrictions. The sudden release of demand and money locked up by lock downs left the supply chains unable to cope as suddenly everyone wanted to do all the things, go to all the places and have all the experiences which they were denied in lockdown.

It's the nature of politics for the Government to cop the flak for people's anger - some of that is deserved, a lot isn't. Prices are rising everywhere (I was hearing Mrs Stodge's family in NZ complaining about inflation last evening) as economic activity is resumed. Obviously, having to pay more for everything will eat into the cash reserves built up by the home working middle classes.

Inflation is high in the US too, and one of the main topics of domestic politics.

Inflation is global as demand is outstripping production in a supply-chain-plagued economic reawakening. I think there will be additional fuel added to this fire before inflation peaks, as some much needed strategic realigning of supply chains happens.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2022

Theuniondivvie said:
Innocent face etc

But I thought the Unionists won at Culloden?

Am I being hopelessly naive in thinking this fan of Sevco/The Rangers is solely showing off the fact they are from Culloden?

Because I know there's a Balloch in that part of the world.

noneoftheabove · April 2022

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......

TimT · April 2022

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.

So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.

solarflare · April 2022

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......

And, preferably, how they will pay for it all.

Farooq · April 2022

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.

That's democracy, Kyle.

Theuniondivvie · April 2022

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Innocent face etc

But I thought the Unionists won at Culloden?

Am I being hopelessly naive in thinking this fan of Sevco/The Rangers is solely showing off the fact they are from Culloden?

Because I know there's a Balloch in that part of the world.

Well I guess it's not ABSOLUTELY impossible, in the same way that it's not impossible that BJ has performed one altruistic act in his shabby life.

TimT · April 2022

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.

And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.

Nigelb · April 2022

I missed this excellent article which predicted the invasion, and is still worth a read for ideas about what might come next.

Putin is about to start the most senseless war in history
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-ukraine-most-senseless-war-nato-history/

Farooq · April 2022

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.

"I don't want the people to have any say HEY WHY AREN'T YOU LISTENING TO ME"

kjh · April 2022

It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.

Nigelb · April 2022

The author just posted this thread, which is not happy reading, either.

Unfortunately, I am not surprised by the atrocities in the occupied zone in Bucha. One thing people tend to underestimate is the narrative built in Russia to justify this war. It sounds so outlandish to most observers that it is too easily written off. But it works. A🧵1/11
https://mobile.twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1510577039279071232

Luckyguy1983 · April 2022

Dura_Ace said:
I wonder how much volition Sunak has over his vakay. There is no way his Mrs, who is used to better things, will tolerate Easter in North Yorkshire just because it looks better to the shitmunchers.

I don't think the relative merits of those destinations is the only reason for the choice. Sunak is one of the most recognised UK politicians and will not get a good holiday here outside of an exclusive-use venue where he will see nobody. And the optics of that would be worse.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

Theuniondivvie said:
Innocent face etc

But I thought the Unionists won at Culloden?

Perhaps the flag of this person...

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/03/NINTCHDBPICT000479385328.jpg?w=620

Luckyguy1983 · April 2022

kjh said:
It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.

No it isn't. *None* of this is beyond their control. This is a false narrative. The levers of the economy are all in the Government's hands.

Stuartinromford · April 2022

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......

Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.

ydoethur · April 2022

kjh said:
It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.

I am reminded of the wise words of Glenda, Witch of the North:

'Remember, dear, karma's only a bitch if you are.'

TimT · April 2022

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.
"I don't want the people to have any say HEY WHY AREN'T YOU LISTENING TO ME"

I think you need to travel and see the real world out there. No point engaging you further.

kinabalu · April 2022

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

It's said a few things tbf. More than necessary really. Just about the only advantage of opposition is you can criticize without having to run a parallel administration with alternative detailed policies. It'd be crazy to give that one advantage up.

rpjs · April 2022

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.

I find https://twitter.com/kamilkazani seems to have some very good insight into the background of the war and the Russian mindset. Some interesting arguments he’s posted recently are that Russia has three outcomes from this war, “victory” or not: become the next North Korea; double down on imperialism and keep chipping away at their neighbours as opportunities present themselves; or face dissolution.

He’s not posted his full thoughts on dissolution yet, but he’s already pointed out that non-ethnic Russians are the only growing populations in the Russian Federation and that they are massively disproportional represented in the Russian army (and of course the casualties in Ukraine).

Of course. the idea of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world becoming former-Yugoslavia on steroids doesn’t seem too appealing either.

Farooq · April 2022

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.
"I don't want the people to have any say HEY WHY AREN'T YOU LISTENING TO ME"
I think you need to travel and see the real world out there. No point engaging you further.

Yes mate, never mind that I've lived in three different countries and visited about 40, from Eastern Europe to the Sahara, from Suriname to the Philippines. Never mind the fact that I have friends who grew up in dictatorships and have told me what life is like from their firsthand experience. Never mind the mountains of history reading I've done. Yes, it's definitely me that needs to travel and see the real world. It's definitely me that's wrong to think that your program for "benign" dictatorship is worse than democracy. It's always me that's wrong. And to think, I'm allowed to vote! Shouldn't be allowed.

stodge · April 2022

TimT said:

Inflation is high in the US too, and one of the main topics of domestic politics.

Inflation is global as demand is outstripping production in a supply-chain-plagued economic reawakening. I think there will be additional fuel added to this fire before inflation peaks, as some much needed strategic realigning of supply chains happens.

To what extent could any of this have been foreseen and mitigated? There seemed so much pressure to return "to normal" but there were obvious issues as the scale of pent-up demand was such and the hoarding of cash such that once it became possible to book a holiday everyone wanted to go on holiday and the same with a large range of consumer goods and activities.

The other side of the equation (presumably) was getting those goods from countries and regions still impacted by the virus and unable to respond in terms not only of alacrity but also up-scaling operations and resources to suddenly provide more ships and planes to transport the goods.

williamglenn · April 2022

rpjs said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
I find https://twitter.com/kamilkazani seems to have some very good insight into the background of the war and the Russian mindset. Some interesting arguments he’s posted recently are that Russia has three outcomes from this war, “victory” or not: become the next North Korea; double down on imperialism and keep chipping away at their neighbours as opportunities present themselves; or face dissolution.

He’s not posted his full thoughts on dissolution yet, but he’s already pointed out that non-ethnic Russians are the only growing populations in the Russian Federation and that they are massively disproportional represented in the Russian army (and of course the casualties in Ukraine).

Of course. the idea of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world becoming former-Yugoslavia on steroids doesn’t seem too appealing either.

The founder of Stratfor, George Friedman, published a book about a decade ago predicting that Russia would implode and the main beneficiaries geopolitically would be Poland, Turkey and Japan.

TimT · April 2022

rpjs said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
I find https://twitter.com/kamilkazani seems to have some very good insight into the background of the war and the Russian mindset. Some interesting arguments he’s posted recently are that Russia has three outcomes from this war, “victory” or not: become the next North Korea; double down on imperialism and keep chipping away at their neighbours as opportunities present themselves; or face dissolution.

He’s not posted his full thoughts on dissolution yet, but he’s already pointed out that non-ethnic Russians are the only growing populations in the Russian Federation and that they are massively disproportional represented in the Russian army (and of course the casualties in Ukraine).

Of course. the idea of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world becoming former-Yugoslavia on steroids doesn’t seem too appealing either.

The Greg Yudin article and twitter thread linked by NigelB are even more interesting than Galeev's analysis, IMO.

kinabalu · April 2022

kjh said:
It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.

Yes. I'll take it, obviously, but him being ditched for corruption, incompetence and repeated lying to parliament would have been better. (past conditional used since I don't see it happening).

Better because it would (maybe) have halted what otherwise, as regards standards in politics and public life, looks like a determined dive to the bottom of the barrel.

Cookie · April 2022

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.

rpjs · April 2022

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.

Although it usually turns out to be the least-worst answer (as per Churchill).

But you make a good point: apparently even Navalny is pretty full-on a Russian nationalist and probably would agree with the principal of attacking Ukraine, although maybe he might have been more likely to decide the risk was not worth the reward than Putin.

kinabalu · April 2022

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.

That's what I think actually. It's not a viable political sell but I think we have a long period of relative decline ahead of us and the domestic challenge is more share of cake than size of.

Farooq · April 2022

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.

Hahaha, yes, Newcastle is famously dry. I had it in my head it was the driest city in Britain but it seems like it's only 6th from a quick google.

I've noticed a lot of southerners have a very generic idea of oop north without noticing the differences between east and west

NorthofStoke · April 2022

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.

The idea that we can get through a global epidemic and a major war in Europe whilst significantly lowering CO2 emissions without a big hit on living standards is absolutely ludicrous. The next election will partly hinge on which party floating voters reckon will do the least damage as the electorate collectively aren't complete fools. There will be other factors of course and I wouldn't bet on who the leaders will be TBH never mind the outcome.

TimT · April 2022

rpjs said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.
Although it usually turns out to be the least-worst answer (as per Churchill).

But you make a good point: apparently even Navalny is pretty full-on a Russian nationalist and probably would agree with the principal of attacking Ukraine, although maybe he might have been more likely to decide the risk was not worth the reward than Putin.

I don't disagree with the concept that democracy is the least worst option overall. But there are points in time in certain societies where it is disastrous. To ignore that fact is to ignore the lessons of history.

And the other aspect of my original post is that the 'benevolent dictator' is something of a mythical beast, as dictators - even if they start out benevolent - generally don't stay so for long. The situation may call out for a benevolent dictator, but does make it an available option.

dixiedean · April 2022

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.

For someone who grew up in Wigan, Newcastle is practically desert.
It is also far from the dystopia painted. The Quayside is gorgeous. And Grey Street is beyond owt London has.
The extensive development of the past 10 years has been a huge improvement, too.

NorthofStoke · April 2022

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.
That's what I think actually. It's not a viable political sell but I think we have a long period of relative decline ahead of us and the domestic challenge is more share of cake than size of.

Size of is critical even if it is the choice of a smaller cake versus a much smaller one. I think the cake can start getting bigger in a few years as long as "events" don't continue to intrude.

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

Germany must stop sending 'blood money' to Russia in wake of civilian torture, Kyiv's mayor warns

Vitali Klitschko says that the discovery of mass graves in towns such as Bucha around Ukraine's capital 'can only be called genocide'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/03/germany-must-stop-sending-blood-money-russia-wake-civilian-torture/

Farooq · April 2022

The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

Leon has some competition...

Since late April 2020, I’ve had the virus not once, not twice, but five separate times.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/have-caught-covid-five-times/

TimT · April 2022

stodge said:

TimT said:

Inflation is high in the US too, and one of the main topics of domestic politics.

Inflation is global as demand is outstripping production in a supply-chain-plagued economic reawakening. I think there will be additional fuel added to this fire before inflation peaks, as some much needed strategic realigning of supply chains happens.
To what extent could any of this have been foreseen and mitigated? There seemed so much pressure to return "to normal" but there were obvious issues as the scale of pent-up demand was such and the hoarding of cash such that once it became possible to book a holiday everyone wanted to go on holiday and the same with a large range of consumer goods and activities.

The other side of the equation (presumably) was getting those goods from countries and regions still impacted by the virus and unable to respond in terms not only of alacrity but also up-scaling operations and resources to suddenly provide more ships and planes to transport the goods.

In the US, I think the choke points in the supply chain have been:

1. foreign (Chinese/Taiwan) component factory production adversely impacted by COVID lockdowns
2. shortage/rising costs of sea freight
3. shipping container unloading capacity at ports
4. workers (inability to hire, rising wage costs)

ydoethur · April 2022

Farooq said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Hahaha, yes, Newcastle is famously dry. I had it in my head it was the driest city in Britain but it seems like it's only 6th from a quick google.

I've noticed a lot of southerners have a very generic idea of oop north without noticing the differences between east and west

If it's a dry city, SeanT wouldn't enjoy it

(The strapline the article gives him - 'bestselling author' - is also rather bland. I preferred his 'International Thriller Writer. Mostly Drunk' from the days of Disqus.)

Andy_JS · April 2022

Very precise times: "Women’s race at 2.23pm, men’s race at 3.23pm (BST)"

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2022/apr/03/cambridge-v-oxford-2022-boat-races-live

Stuartinromford · April 2022

NorthofStoke said:

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.
The idea that we can get through a global epidemic and a major war in Europe whilst significantly lowering CO2 emissions without a big hit on living standards is absolutely ludicrous. The next election will partly hinge on which party floating voters reckon will do the least damage as the electorate collectively aren't complete fools. There will be other factors of course and I wouldn't bet on who the leaders will be TBH never mind the outcome.

Boris is the classic fun PM for good times. Daniel Cleaver not Mark Darcy. If the GBP conclude that these are tough times, he's about as suitable a clown nose at a funeral (unless it's a clown funeral, natch). And whilst the tough times coming would be laughed at by people in most other times and places, they could well feel tough.

But if the offers in 2024 are "honest leadership for tough times" vs "more good times starting Friday morning"... how many voters will want to believe?

HYUFD · April 2022

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).

The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex. The Cambridge boat race crew may even use it tonight

ydoethur · April 2022

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).

Were you here when he started talking about the ferry from Ullapool to Inverness or muddled up the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea?

Geography was never his long suit.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2022

As ever, the light blues are magic, the dark blues are tragic.

tlg86 · April 2022

They should put an age limit on the boat race. People like this shouldn't be in it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_Prendergast

ydoethur · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex. The Cambridge boat race crew may even use it tonight

Really? Wouldn't some kind of waterway be of more value?

tlg86 · April 2022

TheScreamingEagles said:
As ever, the light blues are magic, the dark blues are tragic.

Bunch or ringers.

Farooq · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex

The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.

Cookie · April 2022

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
For someone who grew up in Wigan, Newcastle is practically desert.
It is also far from the dystopia painted. The Quayside is gorgeous. And Grey Street is beyond owt London has.
The extensive development of the past 10 years has been a huge improvement, too.

Yes, it remains a good looking city. Despite T Dan Smith and Paulson(?) much of Newcastle remains attractive, and much more has been successfully redeveloped this century.
That doesn't excuse the ugliness and brutality imposed on Tyneside in the 60s and 70s, however, nor the (admittedly dilapidated) beauty which was razed to create space for it.

HYUFD · April 2022

Perhaps Rishi should book a summer holiday in a b and b in Skegness, Southend, Scarborough, Margate or Blackpool. Then he can try and restore his man of the people image as the cost of living rises after the damage of his Easter break in his multi million dollar California apartment

noneoftheabove · April 2022

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.

My point was really that the repeated pb trope that Labour are "only" offering a windfall tax is completely wrong. People may or may not like their alternatives, or the price or effectiveness of them but they are being presented by their spokespeople regularly.

It is going to be tough regardless of what governments do, but what governments do can be a difference between very tough or quite tough. Short term reversing the UC credits will make things slightly less bad for millions of the worst hit. Long term we need to do a lot of work and accept a lot of change, which none of the main parties really address at all.

As for Sunak, not sure he can be both over promoted and there is no-one else capable of doing a better job. That would surely make him correctly promoted?

ydoethur · April 2022

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.

And the Beeb. They believe the Only Way is Essex.

kinabalu · April 2022

NorthofStoke said:

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.
That's what I think actually. It's not a viable political sell but I think we have a long period of relative decline ahead of us and the domestic challenge is more share of cake than size of.
Size of is critical even if it is the choice of a smaller cake versus a much smaller one. I think the cake can start getting bigger in a few years as long as "events" don't continue to intrude.

Guess I'm talking relatively. But all is relative, so I think that's the meaningful measure. So, crystal ball, for the next few decades, I see us, quite rightly in many ways, getting poorer compared to most other parts of the world, but then - my preference now rather a prediction - organizing ourselves such that our distribution of wealth is flatter than it is now. This, for me, is the best realistic future we have.

edmundintokyo · April 2022

rpjs said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:

Farooq said:

TimT said:
Scourge of the new thread... FPT

TimT Posts: 5,861
9:08AM edited 9:09AM

Leon said:
» show previous quotes
On this, I agree with you. Unfortunately, the brainwashed Russian people seem to be foursquare behind Putin and his New Patriotic War, and all the active dissident elements - mainly the net-savvy young - have either fled already, or been silenced by brutal repression

The only hope is a palace coup, but as the elite are all implicated that seems unlikely.

That leaves three more likely outcomes. 1. Russian is so heavily defeated we can actually enforce regime change as the people DO turn against him as they starve to death. 2. A terrible “peace” which leaves Russian with a sort of victory which is then followed by many years of Cold War. 3. A total all out west-v-Russia/China war which probably destroys half of human life.

Sometimes, a benevolent, stable dictatorship is what a political situation screams for. I fear Russia has reached that point. But good luck finding a benevolent dictator who both is effective/successful in turning Russia into a liberal democracy and stays benevolent during the decade or two that it will take.
Yes, what's needed to remedy that is a way of removing the benevolent dictator. Some sort of system that periodically takes the views of the largest number of people into account. There would need to be safeguards, such as expressing your opinion in secret, and everybody being allowed to only have one say.

If only there were such a system.
So clever and funny. The whole point of the post is that a Russian democratic election at the moment will not yield a nice, cuddly Russia.
That's democracy, Kyle.
And the point is that democracy is not always the answer.
Although it usually turns out to be the least-worst answer (as per Churchill).

But you make a good point: apparently even Navalny is pretty full-on a Russian nationalist and probably would agree with the principal of attacking Ukraine, although maybe he might have been more likely to decide the risk was not worth the reward than Putin.

I don't know enough about Russia to comment on the general points but on Navalny's position on Ukraine, he took a clear stand against the invasion. See: https://www.rferl.org/a/navalny-condemns-russia-attack-ukraine/31720484.html

Farooq · April 2022

ydoethur said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
And the Beeb. They believe the Only Way is Essex.

chapeau

HYUFD · April 2022

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.

The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex

NorthofStoke · April 2022

Stuartinromford said:

NorthofStoke said:

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.
The idea that we can get through a global epidemic and a major war in Europe whilst significantly lowering CO2 emissions without a big hit on living standards is absolutely ludicrous. The next election will partly hinge on which party floating voters reckon will do the least damage as the electorate collectively aren't complete fools. There will be other factors of course and I wouldn't bet on who the leaders will be TBH never mind the outcome.
Boris is the classic fun PM for good times. Daniel Cleaver not Mark Darcy. If the GBP conclude that these are tough times, he's about as suitable a clown nose at a funeral (unless it's a clown funeral, natch). And whilst the tough times coming would be laughed at by people in most other times and places, they could well feel tough.

But if the offers in 2024 are "honest leadership for tough times" vs "more good times starting Friday morning"... how many voters will want to believe?

I agree. I think the Tories' best bet is a change of leader before GE. My reading is that outside its base there is very little enthusiasm for Labour but they might get a majority if they can project a degree of competence and don't have a set of vote losing proposals in the manifesto. Neither of those is guaranteed! Definitely possible though.

Stark_Dawning · April 2022

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.

Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.

Scott_xP · April 2022

The Somerset and Frome MP David Warburton - suspended by the @Conservatives from the parliamentary party following allegations about his conduct in the #sundaytimes -has been admitted to a psychiatric hospital suffering from severe shock and stress, according to his wife Harriet
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1510618374883225610

JosiasJessop · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex

The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.

Farooq · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex

So not all then? Therefore we can finally agree that you don't NEED to go through Essex after all. Whew, it was hard work but we finally got you there, and it only took you 24 hours. A new record for you. You could have walked from London to Cambridge in less time (and not set foot in Essex to boot)

rottenborough · April 2022

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.

French urbanism? Has this fellow not heard of the banlieue?

stodge · April 2022

TimT said:

stodge said:

TimT said:

Inflation is high in the US too, and one of the main topics of domestic politics.

Inflation is global as demand is outstripping production in a supply-chain-plagued economic reawakening. I think there will be additional fuel added to this fire before inflation peaks, as some much needed strategic realigning of supply chains happens.
To what extent could any of this have been foreseen and mitigated? There seemed so much pressure to return "to normal" but there were obvious issues as the scale of pent-up demand was such and the hoarding of cash such that once it became possible to book a holiday everyone wanted to go on holiday and the same with a large range of consumer goods and activities.

The other side of the equation (presumably) was getting those goods from countries and regions still impacted by the virus and unable to respond in terms not only of alacrity but also up-scaling operations and resources to suddenly provide more ships and planes to transport the goods.
In the US, I think the choke points in the supply chain have been:

1. foreign (Chinese/Taiwan) component factory production adversely impacted by COVID lockdowns
2. shortage/rising costs of sea freight
3. shipping container unloading capacity at ports
4. workers (inability to hire, rising wage costs)

I suspect these apply to Europe and the UK as well.

Farooq · April 2022

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.

Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.

CarlottaVance · April 2022

The Somerset and Frome MP David Warburton - suspended by the @Conservatives from the parliamentary party following allegations about his conduct in the #sundaytimes -has been admitted to a psychiatric hospital suffering from severe shock and stress, according to his wife Harriet

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1510618374883225610

Cookie · April 2022

kinabalu said:

NorthofStoke said:

kinabalu said:

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

MarqueeMark said:
Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a "windfall tax" on BP and Shell, who will have massive losses to offset anything Government could hit them with, because of their Russian write-offs.

Indeed Labour has not said what it would have done, other than a windfall tax, reversing universal credit cuts, providing local councils with further funding, extending the business rate holiday for hospitality, a British recovery bond, and start up loans for 100k new businesses.

It really is time for Labour to start telling us what they would do.......
Maybe not a lot can be done. We've been living off pixie gold for a couple of decades now (well before Covid), and perhaps the hangover is inevitable.

Sunak is floundering becuase he's overpromoted and underprepared for the job he now has, but I don't think there's anyone else on the blue team with the stature and fresh ideas to do better. (Especially since the one quickish fix is the one that's heresy to a large chunk of the Conservative party. Know what I mean?)

And if Labour can't stop the lean years, I suspect that they're better trusted to lead us with more kindness, competence and integrity.
That's what I think actually. It's not a viable political sell but I think we have a long period of relative decline ahead of us and the domestic challenge is more share of cake than size of.
Size of is critical even if it is the choice of a smaller cake versus a much smaller one. I think the cake can start getting bigger in a few years as long as "events" don't continue to intrude.
Guess I'm talking relatively. But all is relative, so I think that's the meaningful measure. So, crystal ball, for the next few decades, I see us, quite rightly in many ways, getting poorer compared to most other parts of the world, but then - my preference now rather a prediction - organizing ourselves such that our distribution of wealth is flatter than it is now. This, for me, is the best realistic future we have.

It's not going to be a great few years for anyone in the world, economically. The globalisation-led growth of the last two decades was a bit of a mirage, but did allow us to support a state based on a narrower and narrower tax base. Covid and war are both expensive in themselves but will also see a less globalised world emerging.
I would predict that out of this, in the medium term Britain will grow less but get more equitable - which for most of us will actually feel like richer.
I'd also predict that Britain will do OK compared to the rest of the world. I think the end of growth is near for China, and that the brakes will also come on, less dramatically, for the rest of the far East. Europe will slow down. The Americas will do well. MENA will grind to a halt as the world moves away from oil. Sub-Saharan Africa will see the relative success stories of the next 15 years, albeit very patchily and from a horribly low base.

JosiasJessop · April 2022

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.
Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.

Well, with that justification you can say you could go via Norwich. Or via Birmingham. It's stupid sophistry.

Mrs J makes a similar journey (not quite into London). even with the advantage of living slightly nearer the A10 (via the A1198) than the M11, it was frequently quicker to do her journey via the M11. And it'll be even quicker when 7A opens.

CarlottaVance · April 2022

The revolution consumes its children:

A top city health official and progressive crusader ignited a firestorm when she used different terms for white and minority mothers.

Dr. Michelle Morse, the chief medical officer at the Department of Health, touted a new “birth equity” initiative to provide more midwives and doulas to moms in a series of tweets — selectively using the woke term “birthing people” instead of pregnant women.

“The urgency of this moment is clear. Mortality rates of birthing people are too high, and babies born to Black and Puerto Rican mothers in this city are three times more likely to die in their first year of life than babies born to non-Hispanic White birthing people,”

https://nypost.com/2022/04/02/top-doh-doctor-takes-heat-over-birthing-people-tweet/

HYUFD · April 2022

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
So not all then? Therefore we can finally agree that you don't NEED to go through Essex after all. Whew, it was hard work but we finally got you there, and it only took you 24 hours. A new record for you. You could have walked from London to Cambridge in less time (and not set foot in Essex to boot)

The point remains most drivers would go from London to Cambridge via Essex. So TSE dismissing the county as somewhere he would never go to is wrong. For starters if he had driven or been driven to London and wanted to visit his alma mater he would almost certainly go through the county. Unless he wanted an exorbitantly long route

Fishing · April 2022

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.

France may have escaped Hitler's bombers, but it was pummelled pretty severely by British and American raids. In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/27959/1/DoddKnappBombFrance070708a.pdf

And Germany's cities were flatenned, but the western part anyway looks fairly decent now.

I think our disastrous postwar architecture styles the main reason why so many of our cities look terrible. I'm not clear why taste vanished so completely from our architectural profession after the Second World War, but its members certainly have a lot to answer for.

another_richard · April 2022

rottenborough said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.
French urbanism? Has this fellow not heard of the banlieue?

Aren't they in the outer suburbs and commuter towns and so away from the tourists in the city centres.

Farooq · April 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.
Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.
Well, with that justification you can say you could go via Norwich. Or via Birmingham. It's stupid sophistry.

Mrs J makes a similar journey (not quite into London). even with the advantage of living slightly nearer the A10 (via the A1198) than the M11, it was frequently quicker to do her journey via the M11. And it'll be even quicker when 7A opens.

So it's true to say you CAN, and it's true to say if you're driving you probably SHOULD.
But it's not true to say you NEED to.

And all of this ignores the fact that you don't even have to drive. You could cycle (I don't recommend the M11), walk, take the train or a bus. Perhaps, since this was TSE, even a helicopter. I have no idea whether the normal flight path would take you over Essex, or how high you need to be above Essex before you're no longer "in" Essex.

kinabalu · April 2022

Right, I'm spiritual Cambridge so come on you ... Cambridge!

JosiasJessop · April 2022

Fishing said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.
France may have escaped Hitler's bombers, but it was pummelled pretty severely by British and American raids. In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/27959/1/DoddKnappBombFrance070708a.pdf

And Germany's cities were flatenned, but the western part anyway looks fairly decent now.

I think our disastrous postwar architecture styles the main reason why so many of our cities look terrible. I'm not clear why taste vanished so completely from our architectural profession after the Second World War, but its members certainly have a lot to answer for.

Politics. Many of out city planners and architects looked at the way they thought people should live, rather than they wanted to live.

Farooq · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
So not all then? Therefore we can finally agree that you don't NEED to go through Essex after all. Whew, it was hard work but we finally got you there, and it only took you 24 hours. A new record for you. You could have walked from London to Cambridge in less time (and not set foot in Essex to boot)
The point remains most drivers would go from London to Cambridge via Essex. So TSE dismissing the county as somewhere he would never go to is wrong. For starters if he had driven or been driven to London and wanted to visit his alma mater he would almost certainly go through the county. Unless he wanted an exorbitantly long route

I see the negotiation has reached "almost certainly". Idiotic stridency discount: 5% off list price!
I suppose it all depends on how much TSE wants to avoid Essex.

FF43 · April 2022

kjh said:
It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.

Not unfair IMO. Reasons given for current cost of living increases:
1. Covid
2. State of global economy
3. Russian invasion of Ukraine
4. Businesses making excessive profits
5. Conservative government economic policies
6. Brexit
7. Net Zero (50% think this)

Most of these, except Brexit and government policies, are outside the control of government. But government can be assessed not to have taken adequate measures to mitigate the economic effect of these shocks. Or to have made them actually worse.

JosiasJessop · April 2022

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.
Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.
Well, with that justification you can say you could go via Norwich. Or via Birmingham. It's stupid sophistry.

Mrs J makes a similar journey (not quite into London). even with the advantage of living slightly nearer the A10 (via the A1198) than the M11, it was frequently quicker to do her journey via the M11. And it'll be even quicker when 7A opens.
So it's true to say you CAN, and it's true to say if you're driving you probably SHOULD.
But it's not true to say you NEED to.

And all of this ignores the fact that you don't even have to drive. You could cycle (I don't recommend the M11), walk, take the train or a bus. Perhaps, since this was TSE, even a helicopter. I have no idea whether the normal flight path would take you over Essex, or how high you need to be above Essex before you're no longer "in" Essex.

HYUFD occasionally infuriates me as much as the next person. But using this argument against him is just stupid.

As it happens, when I walked from London to Cambridge, I went through Essex (via Harlow, Stansted Moutfitchet, Great Chesterford). And from memory the London to Cambridge bike ride does (did) too. So nya-nya-nya.

Theuniondivvie · April 2022

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.

France took the full force of the Allies' bombers to a greater extent than the UK did the Luftwaffe's, so fall at the first hurdle for the ahistorical bloviator.

Cookie · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
So not all then? Therefore we can finally agree that you don't NEED to go through Essex after all. Whew, it was hard work but we finally got you there, and it only took you 24 hours. A new record for you. You could have walked from London to Cambridge in less time (and not set foot in Essex to boot)
The point remains most drivers would go from London to Cambridge via Essex. So TSE dismissing the county as somewhere he would never go to is wrong. For starters if he had driven or been driven to London and wanted to visit his alma mater he would almost certainly go through the county. Unless he wanted an exorbitantly long route

I would gently suggest that this threadette has moved far beyond the point anyone was trying to make and entered into the realm of pedantry and counter-pedantry. Well done to all concerned!

Theuniondivvie · April 2022

Fishing said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.
France may have escaped Hitler's bombers, but it was pummelled pretty severely by British and American raids. In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/27959/1/DoddKnappBombFrance070708a.pdf

And Germany's cities were flatenned, but the western part anyway looks fairly decent now.

I think our disastrous postwar architecture styles the main reason why so many of our cities look terrible. I'm not clear why taste vanished so completely from our architectural profession after the Second World War, but its members certainly have a lot to answer for.

'In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.'

In fact about a third more.

Fishing · April 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.
France may have escaped Hitler's bombers, but it was pummelled pretty severely by British and American raids. In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/27959/1/DoddKnappBombFrance070708a.pdf

And Germany's cities were flatenned, but the western part anyway looks fairly decent now.

I think our disastrous postwar architecture styles the main reason why so many of our cities look terrible. I'm not clear why taste vanished so completely from our architectural profession after the Second World War, but its members certainly have a lot to answer for.
Politics. Many of out city planners and architects looked at the way they thought people should live, rather than they wanted to live.

I agree. I also think architects wanted to be seen as being cleverer than everyone else in their profession, particularly their predecessors, and to think of themselves as a creative profession. So they were looking for new styles, and assumed that new must mean better, even though styles from the past were much more familiar and attractive to most non-architects.

Cookie · April 2022

FF43 said:

kjh said:
It would be ironic if the economy does for the Tories. It seems unfair really as so much of it is beyond their control. I'm not vindictive but it also seems unfair if Boris's downfall is for this, which will be no different to so many past PMs from either side, when he should have been brought down (although not necessarily the Conservatives) for so much more.
Not unfair IMO. Reasons given for current cost of living increases:
1. Covid
2. State of global economy
3. Russian invasion of Ukraine
4. Businesses making excessive profits
5. Conservative government economic policies
6. Brexit
7. Net Zero (50% think this)

Most of these, except Brexit and government policies, are outside the control of government. But government can be assessed not to have taken adequate measures to mitigate the economic effect of these shocks. Or to have made them actually worse.

I'd pretty much agree with those rankings.

Farooq · April 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.
Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.
Well, with that justification you can say you could go via Norwich. Or via Birmingham. It's stupid sophistry.

Mrs J makes a similar journey (not quite into London). even with the advantage of living slightly nearer the A10 (via the A1198) than the M11, it was frequently quicker to do her journey via the M11. And it'll be even quicker when 7A opens.
So it's true to say you CAN, and it's true to say if you're driving you probably SHOULD.
But it's not true to say you NEED to.

And all of this ignores the fact that you don't even have to drive. You could cycle (I don't recommend the M11), walk, take the train or a bus. Perhaps, since this was TSE, even a helicopter. I have no idea whether the normal flight path would take you over Essex, or how high you need to be above Essex before you're no longer "in" Essex.
HYUFD occasionally infuriates me as much as the next person. But using this argument against him is just stupid.

As it happens, when I walked from London to Cambridge, I went through Essex (via Harlow, Stansted Moutfitchet, Great Chesterford). And from memory the London to Cambridge bike ride does (did) too. So nya-nya-nya.

There's no nya nya nya available here, I've never said you can't!
As it happens, I've also cycled from London to Cambridge. I don't remember exactly what route it was but the A10 was heavily involved so I think I PROBABLY didn't go into Essex on that trip. But I didn't mention that because it's not exactly a representative journey.
I do wonder how many specifically London-Cambridge journeys are made by car or by rail, but I don't know of a data source to work that out. Not that it matters, I know I'm 100% right about this!

Alphabet_Soup · April 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Fishing said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.
France may have escaped Hitler's bombers, but it was pummelled pretty severely by British and American raids. In fact, about the same number of Frogs died as were killed on this side of the Channel.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/27959/1/DoddKnappBombFrance070708a.pdf

And Germany's cities were flatenned, but the western part anyway looks fairly decent now.

I think our disastrous postwar architecture styles the main reason why so many of our cities look terrible. I'm not clear why taste vanished so completely from our architectural profession after the Second World War, but its members certainly have a lot to answer for.
Politics. Many of out city planners and architects looked at the way they thought people should live, rather than they wanted to live.

Here's a case in point:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roquebrune-Cap-Martin

You couldn't wish to find a pleasanter, organic, old-world village on the Mediterranean. It's where Corbusier went to live with his earnings from brutalism.

kjh · April 2022

@Northern_Al I am seeking help for my addiction. Having refrained from responding to HYUFD I am sorely tempted as he is banging about this trip from London to Cambridge again even though he was shown to be wrong umpteen threads and 24 hours ago (talk about pot and kettle on not letting it drop).

I've tried a cold shower. Any other suggestions?

Farooq · April 2022

kjh said:
@Northern_Al I am seeking help for my addiction. Having refrained from responding to HYUFD I am sorely tempted as he is banging about this trip from London to Cambridge again even though he was shown to be wrong umpteen threads and 24 hours ago (talk about pot and kettle on not letting it drop).

I've tried a cold shower. Any other suggestions?

To be fair it's entirely my fault that conversation started back up again.

FF43 · April 2022

Stark_Dawning said:

Cookie said:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rebuild-our-cities
Interesting article by a fella called Sean Thomas in the Speccie on urbanism. Strangely redolent of what we were talking about on here a week or two back.
FWIW (/self-aggrandisment mode on/) I know a but about this sort of thing and agree with pretty much all of it. Apart from the bit about Newcastle being rainy. It's actually a comparatively dry city. In a rain shadow.
Precisely because Britain stood firm against Hitler, Britain took the full force of Hitler’s bombers. Contrast with France, which briskly surrendered, and thus escaped with many of its cities unscathed (this is one reason French urbanism seems so enviably gracious today).

I bet he got the Speccie readership standing up and saluting with that bit.

I was in Normandy recently where every major city and town was flattened by by bombs - American and British bombs - with huge loss of life. The official narrative is that these unfortunate but heroic people made the sacrifice for France. But that explanation seems very glib.

DoubleCarpet · April 2022

I wish someone commentating on the Boat Race would just say "Oxford have got this"

Have literally never seen a boat come to win from behind after the leader has clear water.

Stuartinromford · April 2022

kjh said:
@Northern_Al I am seeking help for my addiction. Having refrained from responding to HYUFD I am sorely tempted as he is banging about this trip from London to Cambridge again even though he was shown to be wrong umpteen threads and 24 hours ago (talk about pot and kettle on not letting it drop).

I've tried a cold shower. Any other suggestions?

How about a nice long bracing walk?

From London Bridge to Midsummer Common, perhaps?

SeaShantyIrish2 · April 2022

I protest the cultural appropriation of Mornington Crescent in favor of Essex.

Woke rot running riot!

kjh · April 2022

Stuartinromford said:

kjh said:
@Northern_Al I am seeking help for my addiction. Having refrained from responding to HYUFD I am sorely tempted as he is banging about this trip from London to Cambridge again even though he was shown to be wrong umpteen threads and 24 hours ago (talk about pot and kettle on not letting it drop).

I've tried a cold shower. Any other suggestions?
How about a nice long bracing walk?

From London Bridge to Midsummer Common, perhaps?

I've got two broken legs! It's why I'm here all the damn time.

JosiasJessop · April 2022

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

Farooq said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:
The idea that someone could look at Russia right now and say "hmm, maybe what's needed is a dictator" boggles me. It's the stupidest thing I've read on here (and I was here for when HYUFD claimed that you couldn't get from London to Cambridge without entering Essex).
The M11, the main road route from London to Cambridge, goes through Essex
The A10 does not.

So you can choose to go into Essex or not. Literally nobody thinks you can't possibly go through Essex, and only one person, you, thinks you HAVE to.
The M11 is still the main route to Cambridge from London.

So most drivers going from London to Cambridge will indeed drive through Essex
The M11 is almost always the fastest route. Anyone taking the A10 from Cambridge to London is fairly insane IMO - if they're not on a leisurely drive.

In fact, on a weekday outside rush hour, it can take as long to get to London from Royston as it can from Cambridge.
Nobody's saying it's best not to go into Essex. Only that saying you NEED to go into Essex is plainly wrong.
Well, with that justification you can say you could go via Norwich. Or via Birmingham. It's stupid sophistry.

Mrs J makes a similar journey (not quite into London). even with the advantage of living slightly nearer the A10 (via the A1198) than the M11, it was frequently quicker to do her journey via the M11. And it'll be even quicker when 7A opens.
So it's true to say you CAN, and it's true to say if you're driving you probably SHOULD.
But it's not true to say you NEED to.

And all of this ignores the fact that you don't even have to drive. You could cycle (I don't recommend the M11), walk, take the train or a bus. Perhaps, since this was TSE, even a helicopter. I have no idea whether the normal flight path would take you over Essex, or how high you need to be above Essex before you're no longer "in" Essex.
HYUFD occasionally infuriates me as much as the next person. But using this argument against him is just stupid.

As it happens, when I walked from London to Cambridge, I went through Essex (via Harlow, Stansted Moutfitchet, Great Chesterford). And from memory the London to Cambridge bike ride does (did) too. So nya-nya-nya.
There's no nya nya nya available here, I've never said you can't!
As it happens, I've also cycled from London to Cambridge. I don't remember exactly what route it was but the A10 was heavily involved so I think I PROBABLY didn't go into Essex on that trip. But I didn't mention that because it's not exactly a representative journey.
I do wonder how many specifically London-Cambridge journeys are made by car or by rail, but I don't know of a data source to work that out. Not that it matters, I know I'm 100% right about this!

One thing I can say, whilst watching the boat race: I've never rowed from Cambridge to London.

There were plans to connect the Stort Navigation to Cambridge (the London and Cambridge Junction Canal), but it never materialised. A shame.

https://the-hug.org/opus2268.html

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