politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM sees Ukip double its April share to 18 percent

Mick_Pork said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Evening Micky

Oh dear Sunny. It's clear you are better suited to, ahem, working yourself into a frenzy over trains than politics, since it's not me who keeps answering differently when asked if you are you a UKIP supporter or a tory.

That would be you sunny.

I'm SNP and I've campaigned for them and will keep doing so. Who are you going to campaign for when you grow up Sunny? Tory or UKIP?


Still waiting.

Ha, if you're so SNP then why do you obsess about "Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?

You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

Granted that was from 2% to 4%

"LibDems - Doubling Here!"

OT and apologies to interrupt. But some debate re whether this an appropriate/correct/whatever use of FOI. I know little about it - can anyone clarify? (I thought FOI was for official records etc, rather than statements made by politicians in newspaper articles, as in this case...):

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/details_of_surveys_underpinning

SouthamObserver said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

SouthamObserver said:

If those percentages were repeated at the next election it would be the end of FPTP.

Why?
This wasn't:
1987 General Election.
Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats.
Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.

The press may take a slightly different line this time. It would not only be a majority Labour government on a miserable 34% of the vote, but also the LDs with 35 MPs and UKIP with none, despite the latter getting way more votes. That is completely and utterly beyond the pale.

Don't be so quick to write off UKIP's chances. Survation's crunching of the local election results gave UKIP 9 promising targets to work between now and the election, and Electoral Calculus suggests there is only a few points between UKIP getting a few seats, and UKIP getting a lot of seats.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?

You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!

I also noticed you still won't answer the question. Are you a tory or UKIP supporter sunny?

As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)

UKIP ‏@UKIP

Farage: I cannot trust Mr Cameron, and, I would suggest, nor can anybody else. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10041502/Nigel-Lawson-calls-time-on-the-three-pint-Eurosceptic-heroes.html …

So does that mean you and Farage are labour supporters? Ha, indeed.

Although most people would like a say on Europe, there is no sense of urgency. Little more than one voter in every three (35%) demands an instant referendum, compared with 13% who are content to wait till general election day, and 30% who are happy to wait longer – until after David Cameron's promised renegotiation of membership. Some 14% say that the referendum should never take place at all.

Just before the prime minister's January speech, which first floated the prospect of an in/out plebiscite, ICM found a 51%-40% majority for quitting the EU. Far from rushing their leaders towards the door, voters have cooled on the idea since, and opinion is now almost evenly split: 43% say they would vote to quit, against a steady 40% who are inclined to stay in.

Since January there has actually been a four-point drop in the proportion saying they would definitely vote for Britain to leave the EU (a figure that now stands at 32%) and also in the proportion who would probably vote to leave (now 11%). Twice as many voters as before now say they are unsure about how they would vote – 17% as compared with 8% in January.

One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.

Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.

Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.

TSE

"Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981"

Unprecedented since last time, then. You can hardly expect new political forces to come and go much quicker.

Pulpstar said:

Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

Isn't this just ICM catching up with the other pollsters?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6810/comment-page-1

We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.

Socrates said:

SeanT said:

Socrates said:

RichardNabavi said:

Socrates said:

Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?

Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.

But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.

It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.

Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.

Most of these services are unlikely to create jobs in Britain though.

Mick_Pork said:

We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.

There's a by-election coming up in Aberdeen Donside. I expect UKIP to perform well.

Mick_Pork said:

We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is.

Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

On the ICM I'd think we all need to see where we are after the Summer, to see if its a flash in the pan.Beyond that if ( huge if) we are still in this territory significantly post the Euro elections the very fact there's a 28/18 ish Tory/UKIP split will surely generate its own events within both parties as they are confronted with the really live possibility of PM Ed for 5 solid years on a third of the vote ( or less).

That would really bring the electoral system into question. Ed would've won fair and square but majority or not it won't be easy carrying the country through a difficult five years on that kind of support, especially as it would be barely above 30% in England.

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is.

Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

Mr Hancock has been reported to be vacating Portsmouth South for over two years now.

As we say in Yorkshire, it's all fart and no follow through.

anotherDave said:

Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.

SeanT said:

corporeal said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981

• Potential effect on general election hard to predict
• Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd

According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)

That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.

In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.

UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.

The prompting has less to do with the ballot paper and more to do with the expectation of campaigning and media coverage. They may hang onto it for a good while to get a benchmark, keeping a question standard for comparability's sake is very very useful.

Sure. I can see the rationale behind ICM's approach; however I reckon it is, at the moment, leading people to under-estimate UKIP's actual support - see the recent by-elections and local elections.

If the UKIPalypse subsides, then ICM have no worries. But if the surge is sustained then ICM will HAVE to change - why exclude UKIP from prompting, but not the Lib Dems with barely half the support?

I have a lot of sympathy for pollsters, even before the UKIP surge, they are in extraordinary circumstances, with a coalition government, and it is difficult to get the various filters correctly.

Socrates said:

RichardNabavi said:

Socrates said:

Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?

Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.

Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.

Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...

Mike's pointed something out to me.

UKIP upto 18% (+9) but in the same poll EU out/in poll is 43/40, which is a 3 point lead, but down 9% since Jan

Evening all

An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.

For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.

Mick_Pork said:

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

anotherDave said:

Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.

Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?

Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?

Is there an MP with an orange fixation?

Memory tells me that a Conservative MP managed to kill himself while performing a peculiar form of masturbation that required choking, an orange/orange peel was involved somehow. Or perhaps memory is adding colour to the tale!

@anotherDave

A former MP for Eastleigh Stephen Milligan.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/the-death-of-an-mp-eastleigh-tories-remember-a-nice-guy-constituency-1392872.html

Whatever happened to that majority of 17,000+?

dr_spyn said:

@anotherDave

A former MP for Eastleigh Stephen Milligan.

Eastleigh is fast becoming quite the cursed seat.

Huhne's release may even have merited a thread today were it not for the continuing tory UKIP convulsions.

Keep
Talking
About
Europe

So Bob Smithson's confidence that there is no risk to electricity supplies is based upon 'the market'.

Perhaps he's right.

But did 'the market' of six years ago predict a banking collapse, the worst financial crisis for a century and a European economic depression ?

tim said:

@Southam

Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble.
And Cameron will go nowhere near him.

I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it.
And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.

Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.

Tykejohnno said:

tim said:

@Southam

Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble.
And Cameron will go nowhere near him.

I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it.
And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.

Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.

Ed " I'll say it again " Balls ;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20626604

Re Britain v Germany productivity etc

Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.

Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.

Britain is an inspiration nation
Germany is an organisation nation

On topic - Ladbrokes' 4/7 on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros looks a steal. 57% return in a year.

Sadly, I found out this evening my local shop has banned me (again). They've even got my mugshot behind the counter.

Time for a new disguise.

People need to look at the long term consequences of this. Labour aren't losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. Labour aren't suddenly losing Council seats in their heartlands. The Tories are.

So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.

SeanT said:

stodge said:

Evening all

An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.

For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.

You could have condensed that to "hmmm".

Yes, but how will I ever compete that first 50,000 word novel (or however many it's meant to be ?

Now, let's see "It was the best of polls, it was the worst of polls". Make it the opening line of a Tom Knox and you can't go wrong.

Tyke.

Our membership levels are stable. The Tories is the one falling.

Of course the consequence of this is the Tories will end up spending more time talking about Europe.

More and more time.

Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.

IOS said:

Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.

The way things are going,it's the lib dems who should be worried about a place at the debates ;-)

Tykejohnno said:

IOS said:

Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.

The way things are going,it's the lib dems who should be worried about a place at the debates ;-)

Only if they still have Clegg as leader. Under that circumstance they would probably welcome getting booted from them.

SeanT

I SAID MEMBERS

Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.

tim said:

@Sam

The BNP + UKIP vote is steady at 22% since 2009

I guess the theory that people mix up BNP and UKIP could be correct

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
In the ICM poll Ukip had 25% of men, 23% of pensioners and 27% of voters in the unskilled DE occupational grade.

Although it's possible that some of the UKIP vote may be people who set out to vote in 2009 and just got to the polling stations after stopping off along the way.

UKIP heartlands scene

http://www.alamy.com/thumbs/6/{F4263D1C-1F25-4C08-BEC0-9A2260AFB750}/AE3MAJ.jpg

Wow Tim, you really do dislike poor and old people don't you...

It will be interesting to see how hard ukip hits the labour vote when the next set of council elections are held in mainly labour area's.

God,I wish the Euro elections were this year ;-)

Dr Spyn

The Co-op group has £3billion of assets. It will be fine.

SeanT

You and whose army? They way I look at this poll UKIP have no seats and Labour has a majority. You simply have no capacity to win a majority. UKIP have only just started to work out how to run local elections yet alone a national general election.

Then you need members who will knock on doors. Labour have them in their tens of thousands. The Tories have hardly any and the ones they do have they are losing to UKIP.


That is what decides elections. Members and ground work.

Good evening, everyone.

Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.

On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.

Ha Moniker you are howling at the moon aren't you.

Labour has the structure to fight a general election successfully. Which is why Labour will win 300 + seats and UKIP won't pick up 3.