Putin’s body language in that rally is quite peculiar. It may be wishful thinking but he doesn’t look entirely well; he certainly doesn’t look comfortable
Weather in Moscow was about 6c today. He looks like he is wrapped up for an Arctic expedition. Although maybe some of it was flak jacket or similar? He looks very pale and not well.
Maybe stage right? He's a shy little wallflower after all....
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
"Some of the Russian infantry vehicles and tanks are just lost, wandering around. They don’t have communications, they don’t know where they are," Mr. Kim said.
Vladimir Putin would be handed an “effective veto over democracy” in Scotland if indyref2 was delayed by the Ukraine invasion, the SNP has said.
The comments come in response to The Scotsman’s exclusive poll which showed the majority of Scots wish to see discussions around indyref2 stop due to the ongoing conflict.
It also gave a small lead for No when undecideds are excluded, with the vote split 52/48 in favour of unionists.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Since at your age you can only manage so many prolapses a year, I suspect that there’s a fair amount of vested interest in your reckoning. Be honest, does the phrase ‘perhaps the old union will see me out’ flit across your thoughts?
Putin’s body language in that rally is quite peculiar. It may be wishful thinking but he doesn’t look entirely well; he certainly doesn’t look comfortable
Weather in Moscow was about 6c today. He looks like he is wrapped up for an Arctic expedition. Although maybe some of it was flak jacket or similar? He looks very pale and not well.
Just bear in mind Brits at the end of winter look so pale to Americans they appear sick.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
She should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You and your fantasies about generations again. You sound like an engineering manual about the electricity supply industry, or a Drosophila genetics lab.
In any case, you can't quote numbers accurately to within a factor of 100, so are we talking abour fruit fly or Dolly the sheep generations?
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Since at your age you can only manage so many prolapses a year, I suspect that there’s a fair amount of vested interest in your reckoning. Be honest, does the phrase ‘perhaps the old union will see me out’ flit across your thoughts?
Yep. And I suspect the same occurs to you, but with a hint of despair and terror
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
"Some of the Russian infantry vehicles and tanks are just lost, wandering around. They don’t have communications, they don’t know where they are," Mr. Kim said.
Still work in progress, as a secret weapon 😆 just his third race under rules, in awesome grade 1 company, definitely stays in notebook for next winter. could have brought him through earlier, his pace in last furlong wasn’t far off winner at that stage.
"Some of the Russian infantry vehicles and tanks are just lost, wandering around. They don’t have communications, they don’t know where they are," Mr. Kim said.
The interesting bit of that tweet, if it is true, is that the Ukrainians are now regaining territory.
That was reported yesterday - Ukrainian troops making limited counterattacks toward Kherson with some success.
Given the Russians noted supply difficulties, the Ukrainians could cause some real problems if they manage to isolate and surround Russian troops.
Yep. Chop up the invading units into digestible bites, and let the whole family at the dinner table. That is what awaits Russian troops unless they can get their shit together. Or worse.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.
In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
I think Horse was generalising over recent polls. If all the pollsters were to change methodology to Opinium's revised weightings, perhaps PB JohnsonianTories would be a little less chippy and defensive.
Except there was another poll literally a few minutes later with the lead at 4%. Of course the truth probably is there has been a smallish swingback to the government for a variety of reasons which may or may not go further. Very difficult to generalise much beyond this. The next GE remains a long way off - a new PM could make a big difference - I do not think Boris can easily win from here and he needs to go regardless. Beyond that all is to play for which is in itself quite remarkable given what the country has bee through. And it's not finished yet.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
The closest US analogue to Putin's war in Ukraine is probably Vietnam, since the indiscriminate mass bombing of civilians has been somewhat less fashionable since then. And Nixon's rallies were usually disrupted by anti-war protesters.
I think it's unlikely we'll see anything similar at this one.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
Nice in theory. Seems to ignore whatever Ukrainians might be thinking at this point, and what momentum swings might happen.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...
Just rejoice at that news....
Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
You and I have had this discussion before, and I respect your arguments on this, but I do disagree. True when we were in that position it was a shambles, but that was because it was new to MPs. However what it did give is power back to Parliament and engaged the population. All other Govt we have had have been elected dictatorships. Except for a few exceptions MPs have been powerless.
I would not want a position where a Govt could not fall, but I am happy for Parliament to tell a Govt it is wrong and to change or stand down for another group of MPs to take over the reigns if it can get the support of parliament.
This is of course the norm in many cases in the world.
They haven't abolished votes of no confidence, so Parliament can still do that.
But it doesn't does it. No Govt MPs (except in a dire situation) is going to bring down its own Govt. I want MPs to have more power to approve and question decisions of the executive. As it has been the MPs are just useless cannon fodder. Practically every Govt is an elected dictatorship. Parliament has minimal power. They should elect an executive and then hold it to account. Currently they elect the executive but contrary to what they pretend they do not hold it to account.
I agree, but this is entirely orthogonal to the question of having fixed terms.
Yes I do seem to have gone off on a tangent, although I do think it is an element of the argument, together with PR and reduced power of the whips.
I wouldn't disagree. The only problem is that, since a parliament cannot bind its successors, the question only arises when there is a minority government (as a majority government can always just pass a one-clause bill to have an early election and the unelected Lords is never going to vote against there being a general election). and when no alternative government can command a majority (as otherwise the Commons should just change the government).
I agree.
I wrote several paragraphs in response and just lost the lot using my mobile phone.
As per last time we discussed this I get the impression we agree generally on what we would like to see but not on how to get there.
And of course we are in the classic situation of we wouldn't have chosen to have started here.
We have free and fair elections, after that I am not a fan of the process. I think it is very flawed, resulting in poor govt, regardless of who is in power.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
The closest US analogue to Putin's war in Ukraine is probably Vietnam, since the indiscriminate mass bombing of civilians has been somewhat less fashionable since then. And Nixon's rallies were usually disrupted by anti-war protesters.
I think it's unlikely we'll see anything similar at this one.
It literally took years in the US to reach even a significant minority in opposition. Despite a much more open media. Interestingly, beyond the usual suspects, it was veterans who pretty much kickstarted it.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
Nice in theory. Seems to ignore whatever Ukrainians might be thinking at this point, and what momentum swings might happen.
Zelensky has been pointing to similar, as have Russia in their call with Turkey yesterday. Of course it is up to Ukraine, not the West. This is not what I think should happen but what I think will happen. The war is in a costly deadlock, so not expecting game changing momentum swings, no.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
The thing is... Russia's problem is not just manpower, but logistics. Throwing soldier in, without the required food, fuel, ammunition, etc., is unlikely to improve the situation for the Russians.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
It’s because it’s the first letter of the word Zizi which is French for penis when used by a child and thus “small dick”.
It was chosen carefully so as the Russian soldiers burned to death in their tanks they could see with their last moments the symbol of the man who sent them to die.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
Oh, I see now. Your account is a spoof. I fear this post went a bit too far.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Wouldn't work either - SNP are to the left of SLAB which is a rather right wing holdout in the current UK Labour Party (from which, always remember, they are not legally separate). SLAB are pro Trident, pro Union, their boss was the opponent of the trade union cvandidate last time, etc. If anyone is squeezed it would be Slab.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Since at your age you can only manage so many prolapses a year, I suspect that there’s a fair amount of vested interest in your reckoning. Be honest, does the phrase ‘perhaps the old union will see me out’ flit across your thoughts?
Yep. And I suspect the same occurs to you, but with a hint of despair and terror
I may soon be an old man but not one in a hurry, and I’m pretty copacetic about the inevitability of Indy, before or after divvie. Besides once the smoke clears you’ll be living in Oz being helped on and off the commode by your Scotch house boy Eabhal.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
The thing is... Russia's problem is not just manpower, but logistics. Throwing soldier in, without the required food, fuel, ammunition, etc., is unlikely to improve the situation for the Russians.
I presume Russia is running out of troops who can actually attack as opposed yo advance, defend or occupy.
The casualties they have suffered will probably be from their best troops which they desperarly need to replace.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Well duh - that is really what an 'alliance' would actually do in practice. However, Labour would not play because they prefer and SNP majority government to the notion of giving the tories any seats in Scotland. This is why the Union is probably doomed.
The PRC has had plans to invade Taiwan for 73 years and counting. The Taiwanese have plans to defend for just as long. This isn't a secret. And yet it never seems to happen.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Wouldn't work either - SNP are to the left of SLAB which is a rather right wing holdout in the current UK Labour Party (from which, always remember, they are not legally separate). SLAB are pro Trident, pro Union, their boss was the opponent of the trade union cvandidate last time, etc. If anyone is squeezed it would be Slab.
Isn’t it all a lot simpler than that? We’ve seen this before in Ireland. The SNP will dominate until independence happens, and then likely split, unless there’s a step change in desire for independence or a second indie party at scale formed out of a split (“Alba” in different circumstances with different personnel). A second indie party wouldn’t change anything about the relationship with London.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Well duh - that is really what an 'alliance' would actually do in practice. However, Labour would not play because they prefer and SNP majority government to the notion of giving the tories any seats in Scotland. This is why the Union is probably doomed.
Not actually the case. Slab hate the SNP far, far more than the Tories. They were only too happy to ally with the Tories in 2014. That's why they were so shcoked, as well as the ScoTories, when SKS came up to Scotland and started attacking the Tories.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
I think that is right but for Labour the Tories are the main enemy - hence the Union is probably doomed. As are any LD hopes of gaining PR in Westminster from cooperation with Labour - it's never going to happen.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
There are plenty of Christians in Syria. Unlike those that we would like to put into power in Syria, the current regime is tolerant enough for the President to attend Easter prayers in the Orthodox Church.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
I don't support an electoral alliance between Slab or the Tories although 2021 showed how one was unnecessary. I think SLab still using negative economic better together arguments as opposed to emotional arguments is problematic although it was good to see even Jackie Baillie disown Better Together recently.
I sort of feel that things will sort themselves how somehow if Starmer were to come PM. I think Labour would need to make a reasonable offer to rhe SNP on constitutional matters but that the SNP shouldn't dictate the terms of a 2nd referendum like they did the first one. It should also only be a last resort and should not be run like the first one. There are certain scenarios where I would support a referendum to ratify a 60-40 result either way with proper planning done but otherwise I'm no longer that keen.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
And a mercenary bought for a price by one buyer can be bought for a higher price by another ...
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
Vladimir Putin would be handed an “effective veto over democracy” in Scotland if indyref2 was delayed by the Ukraine invasion, the SNP has said.
The comments come in response to The Scotsman’s exclusive poll which showed the majority of Scots wish to see discussions around indyref2 stop due to the ongoing conflict.
It also gave a small lead for No when undecideds are excluded, with the vote split 52/48 in favour of unionists.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
And a mercenary bought for a price by one buyer can be bought for a higher price by another ...
Not me - once bought I stay bought, cause I'm honourable.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
Not a good idea.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Wouldn't work either - SNP are to the left of SLAB which is a rather right wing holdout in the current UK Labour Party (from which, always remember, they are not legally separate). SLAB are pro Trident, pro Union, their boss was the opponent of the trade union cvandidate last time, etc. If anyone is squeezed it would be Slab.
You're possibly correct. A notable development (perhaps the only one) since Nicola took over from Salmond has been the SNP's sharp move to the left. Salmond was always keen to keep links open to business and, perhaps because he was based in the NE, was more alert to the fact that there actually are right-of-centre voters in Scotland and he needed some of them for the Indy voter coalition. Nicola's strategy is to consolidate on the Left and kill off SLAB while co-opting the Greens. Maybe she's right.
"Ah, I see, sorry. The House terms are set at 2 years by article 1 of the Constitution, and Senate terms at 6 years by the Seventeenth Amendment."
The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of senators. Previously they had been chosen by state legislatures. The 6 years is in Article 1, and was not changed by the amendment. (There was an initial establishment of three "classes" of senators, so only a third of them are up for election every two years.)
(A corrupt senator from Pennsylvania, Boies Penrose, was delighted by the change to direct elections, since he thought that the public would vote for him, in spite of his record, but the legislature wouldn't.)
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
The closest US analogue to Putin's war in Ukraine is probably Vietnam, since the indiscriminate mass bombing of civilians has been somewhat less fashionable since then. And Nixon's rallies were usually disrupted by anti-war protesters.
I think it's unlikely we'll see anything similar at this one.
It literally took years in the US to reach even a significant minority in opposition. Despite a much more open media. Interestingly, beyond the usual suspects, it was veterans who pretty much kickstarted it.
80k stadia rallying in favour of mass bombing were pretty rare at the start, too. It's not a direct comparison, obviously - just the nearest I can think of.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
I will come back to my earlier suggestion, the UK and other nations, should allow any of there serving solders to take a 'sabbatical', take of there Uniforms and hand back ID cards and so on, and go to Ukraine for 3 months or 6 months or whatever. How many would go? I don't know probably less than 1%, but that's still close to 1,000 maybe more if some came form TA and other services.
Would 1,000 or so additional well trained and motivated solgers it make a difference, yes, it may or may not change outcome on the battle field. but more likely it would show Russia/Putin that we the UK/West are serous about standing with Ukraine, and might make him keen to agree some form of peace, before they get out there.
In German political news, Oskar Lafontaine left die Linke yesterday and die Linke is in danger of falling below 5% in next Sunday's Landtagswahl in Saarland which would be a catastrophic result for the die Linke
In German political news, Oskar Lafontaine left die Linke yesterday and die Linke is in danger of falling below 5% in next Sunday's Landtagswahl in Saarland which would be a catastrophic result for the die Linke
I recognise the name Oskar Lafontaine, but not sure why, was he there party leader?
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
"Ah, I see, sorry. The House terms are set at 2 years by article 1 of the Constitution, and Senate terms at 6 years by the Seventeenth Amendment."
The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of senators. Previously they had been chosen by state legislatures. The 6 years is in Article 1, and was not changed by the amendment. (There was an initial establishment of three "classes" of senators, so only a third of them are up for election every two years.)
(A corrupt senator from Pennsylvania, Boies Penrose, was delighted by the change to direct elections, since he thought that the public would vote for him, in spite of his record, but the legislature wouldn't.)
True. I could have written "Article 1 as amended by the Seventeenth Amendment" but wanted to be concise...
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
The closest US analogue to Putin's war in Ukraine is probably Vietnam, since the indiscriminate mass bombing of civilians has been somewhat less fashionable since then. And Nixon's rallies were usually disrupted by anti-war protesters.
I think it's unlikely we'll see anything similar at this one.
It literally took years in the US to reach even a significant minority in opposition. Despite a much more open media. Interestingly, beyond the usual suspects, it was veterans who pretty much kickstarted it.
80k stadia rallying in favour of mass bombing were pretty rare at the start, too. It's not a direct comparison, obviously - just the nearest I can think of.
Iraq 2 also, perhaps ?
My comment, and the one that preceded it, were about the style of the rally, not the existence of it.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course.
I don't as a rule, but the winner and Galvin were side by side a third or so into the race and BF for a few seconds went 3.9 Galvin and 4.9 A Plus Tard for no apparent reason.
Very good. If Ukraine does end up giving up on Donbas or Gods forbid even more territory as a matter of military necessity, that would not make the cavalier suggestion of it, or some plebiscite in a wrecked environment, as if a simple or reasonable offer less casual and flippant.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
Does that not depend on whether internal Epping conservative members polling shows they favour such trolling by 38% to 35% or vice versa?
Vladimir Putin would be handed an “effective veto over democracy” in Scotland if indyref2 was delayed by the Ukraine invasion, the SNP has said.
The comments come in response to The Scotsman’s exclusive poll which showed the majority of Scots wish to see discussions around indyref2 stop due to the ongoing conflict.
It also gave a small lead for No when undecideds are excluded, with the vote split 52/48 in favour of unionists.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
Ever since season bow at Haydock when A plus Tard was in parade ring and the others approaching last fence, this was always on my mind.
I'm not a racing man but on the occasions that I've bet on Cheltenham I've been lucky to get a single winner over the whole of the meeting, but you've aced it this week. I'm slightly up (following you) but missed your best winner unfortunately.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You really have lost the plot. That is if you ever had it in the first place.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
That is an appalling thing to say. Lots of people are dying in Ukraine. You treat other people's lives as if they are nothing. I wonder how brave you would be if you were in the frontline rather than sitting behind your computer.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
Meanwhile...Turkish backed Syrian opposition forces, now's your chance. And anti-Kadyrov Chechens And maybe South Ossetia and Abkhazia might fancy coming back into Georgian hands
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
I know right? And yet everyone still clutches their pearls, aghast.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
The trouble is that whilst that may bring an end to this episode it will encourage Putin into further adventures in places like Central Asia. I think that would be as bad, in its way, as the Versaille solution.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Given the percentage is like Wales seems like they've been remarkably vote efficient to hold on to as many MSPs and MPs as they have, but that leaves them very vulnerable.
Comments
In Rachel I trust….
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
The comments come in response to The Scotsman’s exclusive poll which showed the majority of Scots wish to see discussions around indyref2 stop due to the ongoing conflict.
It also gave a small lead for No when undecideds are excluded, with the vote split 52/48 in favour of unionists.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-delay-due-to-ukraine-would-hand-putin-veto-over-democracy-in-scotland-claim-snp-3617488
In any case, you can't quote numbers accurately to within a factor of 100, so are we talking abour fruit fly or Dolly the sheep generations?
https://www.gawker.com/culture/bono-wrote-a-poem-about-ukraine
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Russia-Tables-180322.pdf
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
Close, but no cigar!
Two favourites didn’t make finish, in sad ways ☹️
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Ukraine gives up Crimea.
Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda.
Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links.
Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military.
Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard.
But why specifically Z?
It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504103672019513345
Both @NickPalmer and @YBarddCwsc should read it
Expect more of this for corporations that do not end their business operations in Russia:
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1504817244236357634/photo/1
And Nixon's rallies were usually disrupted by anti-war protesters.
I think it's unlikely we'll see anything similar at this one.
I wrote several paragraphs in response and just lost the lot using my mobile phone.
As per last time we discussed this I get the impression we agree generally on what we would like to see but not on how to get there.
And of course we are in the classic situation of we wouldn't have chosen to have started here.
We have free and fair elections, after that I am not a fan of the process. I think it is very flawed, resulting in poor govt, regardless of who is in power.
Interestingly, beyond the usual suspects, it was veterans who pretty much kickstarted it.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
But to me, it looked like it was part of the two huge signs behind Putin, in the word Za.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/PakLur0Z_uQjqWNor5q-eS73owM=/1200x0/filters:quality(80):format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/DTVONBTYCFPQRCA4W4H2Q24ZVI.jpg
Love Alice’s boots!
Aye right to his pre race kisses and cuddles like a man
It was chosen carefully so as the Russian soldiers burned to death in their tanks they could see with their last moments the symbol of the man who sent them to die.
Those in East Ukraine would prefer their area not to become the robber baron basket case that Donbass has become.
Much better for them to concentrate in their respective areas of strength and squeeze SNP from both sides.
The only possible alternative ScotGov would be Labour/LibDem with SCON supporting on a supply/confidence basis. We're a very long way from that, though.
Protektorat at 13s.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1504840331539501057?s=21
SNP alone
SNP/Green
Lab/LDem
Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
https://www.politicalcompass.org/scotland2021
The casualties they have suffered will probably be from their best troops which they desperarly need to replace.
This isn't a secret.
And yet it never seems to happen.
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
I sort of feel that things will sort themselves how somehow if Starmer were to come PM. I think Labour would need to make a reasonable offer to rhe SNP on constitutional matters but that the SNP shouldn't dictate the terms of a 2nd referendum like they did the first one. It should also only be a last resort and should not be run like the first one. There are certain scenarios where I would support a referendum to ratify a 60-40 result either way with proper planning done but otherwise I'm no longer that keen.
The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of senators. Previously they had been chosen by state legislatures. The 6 years is in Article 1, and was not changed by the amendment. (There was an initial establishment of three "classes" of senators, so only a third of them are up for election every two years.)
(A corrupt senator from Pennsylvania, Boies Penrose, was delighted by the change to direct elections, since he thought that the public would vote for him, in spite of his record, but the legislature wouldn't.)
Well done.
It's not a direct comparison, obviously - just the nearest I can think of.
Iraq 2 also, perhaps ?
I will come back to my earlier suggestion, the UK and other nations, should allow any of there serving solders to take a 'sabbatical', take of there Uniforms and hand back ID cards and so on, and go to Ukraine for 3 months or 6 months or whatever. How many would go? I don't know probably less than 1%, but that's still close to 1,000 maybe more if some came form TA and other services.
Would 1,000 or so additional well trained and motivated solgers it make a difference, yes, it may or may not change outcome on the battle field. but more likely it would show Russia/Putin that we the UK/West are serous about standing with Ukraine, and might make him keen to agree some form of peace, before they get out there.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
And anti-Kadyrov Chechens
And maybe South Ossetia and Abkhazia might fancy coming back into Georgian hands
https://unherd.com/2022/03/why-the-left-is-split-over-ukraine/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=736354209e&mc_eid=cb1a645853