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Will the Shrewsbury MP retain his seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486


    Oliver Alexander
    @OAlexanderDK
    ·
    8m
    Another odd touch and go/go-around by a Rossiya Special Flight Squadron aircraft today. RSD77 flew from Moscow to Yekaterinburg and now it appears to Saint Petersburg.

    https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504787274843762690

    Makes sense - keep doing random flights that are pointless so when you do actually fly out Putin it looks like another random flight as before.

    A bit like Find the lady card game or the one with the ball under the three cups.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Re the Future of Tanks debate FPT

    Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them

    Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
    a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop

    In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us

    So the casualties will increasingly be all civilian? The dark kudos that War still has would be diminished by this. Nothing clever or complicated or noble here. It'd look more like what it essentially is - premeditated mass murder.
    Yes, agreed - which is why military types often resist the inexorable logic of modern technology. They still want tanks and aircraft carriers, in their hearts they still want cavalry and muskets and swords

    There is no glamour in a guy sitting in an office in Swindon yawning as he pilots Drone Bomber TY3752B over a foreign housing complex. There is even less glamour when that guy is replaced by AI. But that’s where we’re headed

    Ultimately, we might be headed to war between differing AI systems. GPT47 versus Xioxing56. Before any bombs go off the two AI systems will logically confer, work out who is superior, and the weaker AI will surrender, thus avoiding war completely. War is illogical if you can deduce who will win from the start
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Lavrov planning to blow up transportation from outside Ukr is presumably designed to try and force NATO into war and thus save Putin's bacon.



  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Outstanding stuff in the Atlantic:

    "Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."

    "...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/

    If Putin wants a war with NATO because it would be a gift to him then he can do so without going round the houses by bombing anywhere he likes (arms delivery routes?) within NATO. Just the once is enough. He isn't. Obvious tentative conclusions should therefore be drawn.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Re the Future of Tanks debate FPT

    Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them

    Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
    a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop

    In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us

    No, in the future drones and robots will be used to do Mariupol on us.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    I guess when it confirms that the previous increase in the lead wasn't just margin of error noise.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215

    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
    One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.

    (But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
    I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!

    If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
    I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.

    Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    2h
    #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

    And all transporters that may bring weapons to Russia? They immune, Lavrov?

    Pissed off the world is supplying Ukraine with endless shit-hot Ruskie-killing kit? There's an answer to that. DON'T INVADE YOUR NEIGHBOURS.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024

    He’s certainly right about the Fascism.

    It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)

    So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
    Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
    Fascism definitely exists. It’s not just a boo-word. It is notably hard to pin down tho. Famously so. A bit like pornography - “you recognise it when you see it”

    A great book on the subject


    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Anatomy-Fascism-Robert-Paxton/dp/0141014326/ref=nodl_
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    edited March 2022
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
    I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
    That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.

    For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Scoop: 🇬🇧 plans to raise labor rights, recognition of qualifications, green tech and digital trade with 🇺🇸 next week, according to an internal memo seen by POLITICO.

    https://pro.politico.eu/news/147671


    Right before Truss blows up the talks in Ireland
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
    One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.

    (But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
    I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!

    If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
    I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.

    Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
    Johnson has completely normalised outright lying and blatant grift. There will be no return to more decorous times.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Leon said:

    Re the Future of Tanks debate FPT

    Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them

    Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
    a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop

    In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us

    It's not over yet.

    The Russkies are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.

    There are also systems coming in

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    Report of Russian casualties being treated in Gomel Area, in Belarus, and 2500 bodies being shipped home.

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3432924-more-than-2500-bodies-of-russian-servicemen-shipped-to-russia-from-gomel-belarus-media.html

    (poss. slight warning on that source - some association with Radio Free-Europe, which for some will raise questions.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Putin is holding his version of the Nuremberg Rally today.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

    @maxseddon
    Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.

    Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    2h
    #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

    I cant see even the Russian military being that stupid. Seen what happens if you take down a ship/plane of a nation currently holding back?
    NATO should not escalate in this conflict but if we want to stop Russia escalating we need to be clear we will apply whatever they do to them. So if they attack NATO vehicles in Ukraine, we should attack Russian vehicles in Ukraine.
    But isn't the distinction between supply and engagement one that has to hold to avoid this turning into a wider war?

    Meaning that (eg) a NATO supplied vehicle in Ukraine is not a NATO vehicle, it's a Ukrainian vehicle?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited March 2022

    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
    One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.

    (But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
    I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!

    If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
    I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.

    Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
    It could be people look at the Boris years, on the hoof sloganised populism ahead of tried and tested Conservatism, and say never again. It could go that way. MoonRabbit being ever the optimist!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    algarkirk said:

    Aslan said:

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    2h
    #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

    OK cool so if the Russians bomb a lorry on the Polish side of the border, what do we reckon Biden does?
    Any attack on a NATO member is an attack on all members. If Poland is attacked we should start shooting Russian planes out of the sky.
    It is no accident that Russia is as careful not to engage with NATO as NATO is ditto. The caution is not just on our side. Neither side has a clue what the other would do. perhaps because they don't know themselves.

    The place not to be is Moldova, Georgia, Finland etc

    RU has been careful not to engage NATO. So far. Putin will order it when it thinks a wider war, likely with nukes, is his only way out.

    We must always remember the cornered rat story from his childhood.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Dura_Ace said:

    Johnson has completely normalised outright lying and blatant grift. There will be no return to more decorous times.

    He is only able to do that as long as he is the only one who can mark his own homework.

    That position cannot hold long term
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Putin is holding his version of the Nuremberg Rally today.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

    @maxseddon
    Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.

    Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground

    Things just seem to get worse every day.

  • Labour has played Ukraine very well. Nobody is now in doubt that Labour is pro NATO and big on defence. An intelligent response to get over the Corbyn years for sure.
  • felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,190
    edited March 2022
    Let's be sensible here.

    Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    algarkirk said:

    Outstanding stuff in the Atlantic:

    "Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."

    "...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/

    If Putin wants a war with NATO because it would be a gift to him then he can do so without going round the houses by bombing anywhere he likes (arms delivery routes?) within NATO. Just the once is enough. He isn't. Obvious tentative conclusions should therefore be drawn.

    The point is he doesn't want a war with NATO today. But he may want one soon as his only way of securing his position.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Pulpstar said:

    Let's be sensible here.

    Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.

    Ye

    That’s my reading of it, too.

    Not an unexpected development.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Putin is holding his version of the Nuremberg Rally today.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

    @maxseddon
    Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.

    Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground

    Things just seem to get worse every day.
    It's all gone very mask off over the past week or two. That speech the other day was explicitly fascist. From all reports so far it certainly looks like Putin isn't backing down, and the Turkish interpretations of the Putin call do not bode well for peace. I wonder how many conscripts who have their duty end on the 1st of April will be handed an already signed soldier contract and a rail ticket to Belarus in the next fortnight.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,380
    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    Good. We’re progressing as a society. More support for labours open door policy than the Tories hostile environment.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
    I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
    That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.

    For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
    I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    2h
    #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

    And all transporters that may bring weapons to Russia? They immune, Lavrov?

    Pissed off the world is supplying Ukraine with endless shit-hot Ruskie-killing kit? There's an answer to that. DON'T INVADE YOUR NEIGHBOURS.
    I'm not sure Lavrov will listen to capital letters, but it's worth a try I guess.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024

    He’s certainly right about the Fascism.

    It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)

    So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
    Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
    Dugin (Putin's "brain") 'in The Fourth Political Theory, promotes a political ideology that combines what he views as the best elements of Nazism, Communism, Ecologism (opposition to modernity), and Traditionalism, describing this ideology as a “genuine, true, radically revolutionary, and consistent fascist fascism.”'

    https://stanfordpolitics.org/2017/02/02/eurasianism-new-fascism/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.

    The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    2h
    #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv

    And all transporters that may bring weapons to Russia? They immune, Lavrov?

    Pissed off the world is supplying Ukraine with endless shit-hot Ruskie-killing kit? There's an answer to that. DON'T INVADE YOUR NEIGHBOURS.
    I'm not sure Lavrov will listen to capital letters, but it's worth a try I guess.
    It's the only language he understands.

    That and Novichok on his door-handles.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    After "partygate" scandal, Boris Johnson's popularity recovering among Tory supporters..67% are satisfied with him, up 10 points from Jan, with 26% dissatisfied, down eight points, net satisfaction up +23 to +41 - @IpsosUK poll for @EveningStandard . https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/economic-optimism-record-uk-cost-living-ukraine-war-ipsos-poll-b989019.html



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    That is not a happy comparison if you consider what followed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Re the Future of Tanks debate FPT

    Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them

    Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
    a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop

    In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us

    So the casualties will increasingly be all civilian? The dark kudos that War still has would be diminished by this. Nothing clever or complicated or noble here. It'd look more like what it essentially is - premeditated mass murder.
    Yes, agreed - which is why military types often resist the inexorable logic of modern technology. They still want tanks and aircraft carriers, in their hearts they still want cavalry and muskets and swords

    There is no glamour in a guy sitting in an office in Swindon yawning as he pilots Drone Bomber TY3752B over a foreign housing complex. There is even less glamour when that guy is replaced by AI. But that’s where we’re headed

    Ultimately, we might be headed to war between differing AI systems. GPT47 versus Xioxing56. Before any bombs go off the two AI systems will logically confer, work out who is superior, and the weaker AI will surrender, thus avoiding war completely. War is illogical if you can deduce who will win from the start
    Well my vision is it peters out as an activity on account of never passing any sort of rational cost/benefit test. But I guess I'll take this as a second best alternative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Labour has played Ukraine very well. Nobody is now in doubt that Labour is pro NATO and big on defence. An intelligent response to get over the Corbyn years for sure.

    So - do as Boris Johnson does and we'll be fine, eh Labour?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Alistair said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.

    The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
    It's incredible. Though you could argue that it is 10 square miles that controls some considerably larger amount of Ocean. In a similar sense, the active fronts in Ukraine seems to be about a few dozen large roads in width, and a few miles in length.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    3 things

    1. Reports of Pig Dog's survival and Ascent into Heaven are exaggerated and previous

    2. In the long term you cannot beat the appearance and reality of courage and integrity. There will be political life after Johnson even if he lasts another decade and goes out in a blaze of glory

    3. Oderint dum metuant. Even on your own short term, opportunist and transactional view you are exactly back to front. You get stuff out of Pig Dog if he is scared of you. AB has put himself on track to be, in 5 years time, Sir Aaron opening a super new hospital in the heart of his constituency.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Putin is holding his version of the Nuremberg Rally today.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

    @maxseddon
    Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.

    Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground

    Things just seem to get worse every day.

    Flags being thrown to the ground is more Stalin's Victory Parade in 1945 than Nuremburg. I'd suggest that that is Putin's allusion.

    Are they identified as flags of defeated units, which is what Stalin did?

    https://youtu.be/mSXEJ5Ud3Co?t=10
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,190
    Alistair said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.

    The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
    Wonder what it is in Mariupol now.
  • Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    Good. We’re progressing as a society. More support for labours open door policy than the Tories hostile environment.
    Patel did a lot of damage and at least has been sidelined. and in the late spring reshuffle needs sending to the back benches
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    mwadams said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
    I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
    That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.

    For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
    I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
    I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    OT: I'm quite excited by tonight's return of Time Team. I've seen the preview edit of Ep 1 and it is well worth watching if you're interested in the subject matter.

    https://twitter.com/thetimeteam/status/1504797479660892160?s=20&t=buQlhTzJ3I6L6NS1xcD5Eg
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    A bit of one. But this is absolutely the best thing that could possibly have happened for Boris and it isn't doing him much good.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Scott_xP said:

    After "partygate" scandal, Boris Johnson's popularity recovering among Tory supporters..67% are satisfied with him, up 10 points from Jan, with 26% dissatisfied, down eight points, net satisfaction up +23 to +41 - @IpsosUK poll for @EveningStandard . https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/economic-optimism-record-uk-cost-living-ukraine-war-ipsos-poll-b989019.html



    Has Boris actually met and apologised in person yet?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
  • https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Applicant said:

    mwadams said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
    I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
    That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.

    For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
    I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
    I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
    It is fair to say that my worry may be unfounded! And of course, there are still plenty of great constituency MPs who are less visible than the gurning grotesques on all sides.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Putin is holding his version of the Nuremberg Rally today.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

    @maxseddon
    Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.

    Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground

    Things just seem to get worse every day.

    Flags being thrown to the ground is more Stalin's Victory Parade in 1945 than Nuremburg. I'd suggest that that is Putin's allusion.

    Are they identified as flags of defeated units, which is what Stalin did?

    https://youtu.be/mSXEJ5Ud3Co?t=10
    7 and a bit weeks to Victory Day on 9 May. Putin must be working towards wrapping things up in time for that.
  • More from @IpsosUK / @standardnews: Meanwhile Starmer's ratings similar to January. Dissatisfaction falls slightly.

    Starmer
    Satisfied 33% (no change from Jan)
    Dissatisfied 43% (-5 pts)

    Way ahead of Johnson
  • Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (-1)
    CON: 35% (+4)
    LDM: 10% (-3)
    GRN: 7% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, On 9-16 March,
    Changes w/ 19-25 January.

    Keep Johnson on as long as possible!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    Re the Future of Tanks debate FPT

    Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them

    Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
    a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop

    In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us

    This game is still afoot.

    The Russians are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.

    That's not how modern armies do it, as we know.

    There are also systems coming in to defend tanks against such weapons. Here's one used by the Israelis and the Germans, which we have ordered for the next version of our tanks. It has been around for a decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024

    He’s certainly right about the Fascism.

    It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)

    So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
    Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
    Dugin (Putin's "brain") 'in The Fourth Political Theory, promotes a political ideology that combines what he views as the best elements of Nazism, Communism, Ecologism (opposition to modernity), and Traditionalism, describing this ideology as a “genuine, true, radically revolutionary, and consistent fascist fascism.”'

    https://stanfordpolitics.org/2017/02/02/eurasianism-new-fascism/
    By "best elements" I presume he means what the sane amongst us call the "worst" elements?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Has Boris actually met and apologised in person yet?

    I have not seen it reported anywhere.

    This is quite good though

    Liz Truss persuaded by aides to share a photo of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to celebrate her release. https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/1504359381038772225/photo/1
  • Among many strong contenders l would argue that Swayne is the worst Conservative MP in the current parliament. No chance of a non-Tory in the New Forest sadly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Alistair said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.

    The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
    The Russia-Ukraine War is the largest conflict in Europe since WWII, but involves almost two orders of magnitude fewer soldiers.
  • https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Nigelb said:

    mwadams said:

    FPT:

    The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.

    US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.

    Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:

    450 tanks
    93 aircraft
    112 helicopters
    and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.

    May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.

    Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.

    In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
    That is not a happy comparison if you consider what followed.
    Indeed not. But it always depends on how many troops and how much materiel you have to waste. The thing that always boggles me is that this was a rare case of the US taking *more* casualties than the Japanese, and yet the conventional wisdom is that the attackers will take casualties in multiples of the defenders. The Imperial Army was so profligate with its troops, it's extraordinary.
  • https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
  • https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    mwadams said:

    Applicant said:

    mwadams said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
    I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
    That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.

    For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
    I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
    I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
    It is fair to say that my worry may be unfounded! And of course, there are still plenty of great constituency MPs who are less visible than the gurning grotesques on all sides.
    Even being a gurning grotesque on the national stage doesn't necessarily preclude being a good constituency MP, either.
  • https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
    Charming
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Scott_xP said:

    After "partygate" scandal, Boris Johnson's popularity recovering among Tory supporters..67% are satisfied with him, up 10 points from Jan, with 26% dissatisfied, down eight points, net satisfaction up +23 to +41 - @IpsosUK poll for @EveningStandard . https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/economic-optimism-record-uk-cost-living-ukraine-war-ipsos-poll-b989019.html


    Has Boris actually met and apologised in person yet?
    If it were you, would you even agree to meet him ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Pulpstar said:

    Let's be sensible here.

    Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.

    And if in Ukraine they ARE valid targets within the parameters tacitly accepted. NATO supplies aren't NATO assets once in Ukraine. They're Ukrainian assets. Isn't this the essential etiquette/doublethink which allows us to fight Russia whilst not fighting Russia? To me it looks quite like the old 'proxy war' doctrine from Cold War days. Except with at least one big difference, we are proxy and they are not.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    More from @IpsosUK / @standardnews: Meanwhile Starmer's ratings similar to January. Dissatisfaction falls slightly.

    Starmer
    Satisfied 33% (no change from Jan)
    Dissatisfied 43% (-5 pts)

    Way ahead of Johnson

    Boris 31% satisfied
    SKS 33% satisfied.

    Slightly, not way ahead.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,941

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    EXC: Liz Truss faces Foreign Office mutiny as senior diplomat Moazzam Malik resigns over Ukraine shake-up - w/ @Tony_Diver @Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/18/exclusive-liz-truss-faces-foreign-office-mutiny-senior-diplomat/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,190

    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
    He will beat the general swing against the Conservatives with his excellent work against RED industries in the Commons.
  • Gary Neville saying Boris need to be supported through this crisis but then should leave

    I think many would agree
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After "partygate" scandal, Boris Johnson's popularity recovering among Tory supporters..67% are satisfied with him, up 10 points from Jan, with 26% dissatisfied, down eight points, net satisfaction up +23 to +41 - @IpsosUK poll for @EveningStandard . https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/economic-optimism-record-uk-cost-living-ukraine-war-ipsos-poll-b989019.html


    Has Boris actually met and apologised in person yet?
    If it were you, would you even agree to meet him ?
    I'm sure she will if she thinks it'll help Morad Tahbaz get home sooner.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    It appears that the people of Esh Winning (Durham) have a new Lib Dem town councillor while the people of Stone (Dartford) have another Residents Association councillor to replace a Conservative. No information from Doncaster - their website was last updated in January!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Georgia could get interesting shortly...

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2h
    Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia.

    The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.

    The video was recorded near Alagir in North Ossetia.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848
  • kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    The next few years will change a lot of perceptions and predicting GE24 is almost impossible
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    The next few years will change a lot of perceptions and predicting GE24 is almost impossible
    Yep.

    We may still be dealing with war in eastern europe in 2024.
  • kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    The next few years will change a lot of perceptions and predicting GE24 is almost impossible
    Yep.

    We may still be dealing with war in eastern europe in 2024.
    I really fear that may be the case
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    There are huge economic challenges ahead. How the two main parties position themselves and how that pans out in the GE is unknown but will obviously be a major influence on voting. Both are capable of losing the next election in my opinion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Dowden says the Tories are going to launch their 2-year election campaign from May onwards and it will be more like 2015 than 2019 > sounds like a bid to entrench Boris Johnson as the candidate
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522

    Rees-Mogg says Ukraine war has shown that partygate scandal was just 'disproportionate fluff' - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/18/uk-politics-live-tory-conservatives-spring-conference-boris-johnson-latest-updates?page=with:block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1#block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    I think it is slightly more subtle than that.

    Labour need to say that, in the midst of all this horror, made worse by the lies and incompetence of the Tory government, they will make sure they look after the interests of ordinary people better than the Tories would (look at their corrupt money from Russia and parties while our grannies died to see that *of course* Labour will look after you better than that).

    A couple of fairly neutral but exemplary policies to show the difference are all that is required. Historically, they've made a mess of that bit - but I have a sense that Starmer will be stronger at that part.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    It's funny how comments on old polls just a few minutes ago can age so badly... :smiley:
  • kyf_100 said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.

    This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet

    There are huge economic challenges ahead. How the two main parties position themselves and how that pans out in the GE is unknown but will obviously be a major influence on voting. Both are capable of losing the next election in my opinion.
    Maybe either can win GE24
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
    Ageism is the last bastion of silly prejudices left it seems...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    NB it says AI translators aren’t quite good enough - yet


    “In some instances, machine learning is currently used to generate a first-draft translation, which is then edited or disregarded by a human subtitler as they see fit. The shortcomings of AI in handling the art of subtitling means that there’s no quick fix to the translator crunch.”

  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
    The way to square that circle is to funnel immigration into wealthy areas.

    Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.

    There was a newsnight piece, a couple of years ago, which looked at the mechanics of asylum. Eye opening.

    Somehow, the Shires ended up with almost no asylum seekers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2022
    I should expect he will hold it. It has been a Tory held seat since 2005 and Labour are nowhere near the 9.5% swing to take it.

    Kawczynski has also made clear Putin should be forced out of Ukraine, even if he does not believe the UK can take large numbers of Ukranian refugees. In his strong Leave seat many will support that

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/shrewsbury/2022/03/01/shrewsbury-mp-insists-putin-must-be-forced-out-of-ukraine-following-discussions-with-ukraine-ambassador/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    slade said:

    It appears that the people of Esh Winning (Durham) have a new Lib Dem town councillor while the people of Stone (Dartford) have another Residents Association councillor to replace a Conservative. No information from Doncaster - their website was last updated in January!

    LibDems: Esh Winning Here!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    ping said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
    The way to square that circle is to funnel immigration into wealthy areas.

    Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.
    You'd think - but just wait for the howls of protest if that ever happened. Cheap Labour au pairs are one thing but actual w/c immigrants cheek by jowl -- we'll see.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Georgia could get interesting shortly...

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2h
    Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia.

    The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.

    The video was recorded near Alagir in North Ossetia.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848

    Nothing there that 20 NLAWs and Javelins won't take care of.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,648
    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden says the Tories are going to launch their 2-year election campaign from May onwards and it will be more like 2015 than 2019 > sounds like a bid to entrench Boris Johnson as the candidate
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522

    Rees-Mogg says Ukraine war has shown that partygate scandal was just 'disproportionate fluff' - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/18/uk-politics-live-tory-conservatives-spring-conference-boris-johnson-latest-updates?page=with:block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1#block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1

    Mogg is a fool.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    What were his comments about Ukrainian refugees?

    "British left-wing parties demand Britain takes in more Ukrainian refugees.

    "This is illiterate and immoral. When war is over Ukrainians will need to return home to rebuild their country.

    "We should be supporting Ukrainian refugees in frontline states like Poland and Romania."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukraine-refugees-tory-mp-daniel-kawczynski-b2035966.html


    He’s got a point, tho. It will be a catastrophe for Ukraine - greater than any war - if it loses 5m of its people. Especially as they will tend to be the younger and more mobile. And kids

    The further they go from Ukraine and the better educated they are, the less likely they are to ever return.

    I’m not saying this because I want to keep the Ukes out. 500,000 hard working young Ukrainians, permanently settled here, would be great for the UK

    But a disaster for Ukraine
    Yes. Brain drains on Russia are highly popular here, but Ukraine is getting brain drained too.

    But sensitive area, because the right answer and the xenophobic one happen to coincide
    The solution is a kind of Marshall plan for post-war Ukraine so that its expats want to go back and it becomes an attractive place to build a life in.

    I actually think there is a decent chance this could happen. But first Putin has to be dealt with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    The Moscow rally has a big sign saying: "For a world without fascism"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    The Moscow rally has a big sign saying: "For a world without fascism"

    Moscow still hosting the Irony Olympics this year then?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
    The secret weapon for the Tories here is asking Starmer if he will scrap the minimum income arrangement that keeps out a lot of arranged brides from Pakistan.
This discussion has been closed.