Oliver Alexander @OAlexanderDK · 8m Another odd touch and go/go-around by a Rossiya Special Flight Squadron aircraft today. RSD77 flew from Moscow to Yekaterinburg and now it appears to Saint Petersburg.
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
So the casualties will increasingly be all civilian? The dark kudos that War still has would be diminished by this. Nothing clever or complicated or noble here. It'd look more like what it essentially is - premeditated mass murder.
Yes, agreed - which is why military types often resist the inexorable logic of modern technology. They still want tanks and aircraft carriers, in their hearts they still want cavalry and muskets and swords
There is no glamour in a guy sitting in an office in Swindon yawning as he pilots Drone Bomber TY3752B over a foreign housing complex. There is even less glamour when that guy is replaced by AI. But that’s where we’re headed
Ultimately, we might be headed to war between differing AI systems. GPT47 versus Xioxing56. Before any bombs go off the two AI systems will logically confer, work out who is superior, and the weaker AI will surrender, thus avoiding war completely. War is illogical if you can deduce who will win from the start
"Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."
"...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."
If Putin wants a war with NATO because it would be a gift to him then he can do so without going round the houses by bombing anywhere he likes (arms delivery routes?) within NATO. Just the once is enough. He isn't. Obvious tentative conclusions should therefore be drawn.
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
No, in the future drones and robots will be used to do Mariupol on us.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
As I said at the time, he miscalculated.
He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.
A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.
(But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!
If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.
Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 2h #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024
He’s certainly right about the Fascism.
It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)
So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
Fascism definitely exists. It’s not just a boo-word. It is notably hard to pin down tho. Famously so. A bit like pornography - “you recognise it when you see it”
Scoop: 🇬🇧 plans to raise labor rights, recognition of qualifications, green tech and digital trade with 🇺🇸 next week, according to an internal memo seen by POLITICO.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
As I said at the time, he miscalculated.
He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.
A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.
(But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!
If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.
Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
Johnson has completely normalised outright lying and blatant grift. There will be no return to more decorous times.
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
It's not over yet.
The Russkies are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
Report of Russian casualties being treated in Gomel Area, in Belarus, and 2500 bodies being shipped home.
@maxseddon Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 2h #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
I cant see even the Russian military being that stupid. Seen what happens if you take down a ship/plane of a nation currently holding back?
NATO should not escalate in this conflict but if we want to stop Russia escalating we need to be clear we will apply whatever they do to them. So if they attack NATO vehicles in Ukraine, we should attack Russian vehicles in Ukraine.
But isn't the distinction between supply and engagement one that has to hold to avoid this turning into a wider war?
Meaning that (eg) a NATO supplied vehicle in Ukraine is not a NATO vehicle, it's a Ukrainian vehicle?
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
As I said at the time, he miscalculated.
He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.
A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.
(But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!
If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.
Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
It could be people look at the Boris years, on the hoof sloganised populism ahead of tried and tested Conservatism, and say never again. It could go that way. MoonRabbit being ever the optimist!
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 2h #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
OK cool so if the Russians bomb a lorry on the Polish side of the border, what do we reckon Biden does?
Any attack on a NATO member is an attack on all members. If Poland is attacked we should start shooting Russian planes out of the sky.
It is no accident that Russia is as careful not to engage with NATO as NATO is ditto. The caution is not just on our side. Neither side has a clue what the other would do. perhaps because they don't know themselves.
The place not to be is Moldova, Georgia, Finland etc
RU has been careful not to engage NATO. So far. Putin will order it when it thinks a wider war, likely with nukes, is his only way out.
We must always remember the cornered rat story from his childhood.
@maxseddon Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
Labour has played Ukraine very well. Nobody is now in doubt that Labour is pro NATO and big on defence. An intelligent response to get over the Corbyn years for sure.
Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.
"Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."
"...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."
If Putin wants a war with NATO because it would be a gift to him then he can do so without going round the houses by bombing anywhere he likes (arms delivery routes?) within NATO. Just the once is enough. He isn't. Obvious tentative conclusions should therefore be drawn.
The point is he doesn't want a war with NATO today. But he may want one soon as his only way of securing his position.
Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.
@maxseddon Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
Things just seem to get worse every day.
It's all gone very mask off over the past week or two. That speech the other day was explicitly fascist. From all reports so far it certainly looks like Putin isn't backing down, and the Turkish interpretations of the Putin call do not bode well for peace. I wonder how many conscripts who have their duty end on the 1st of April will be handed an already signed soldier contract and a rail ticket to Belarus in the next fortnight.
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 2h #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024
He’s certainly right about the Fascism.
It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)
So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
Dugin (Putin's "brain") 'in The Fourth Political Theory, promotes a political ideology that combines what he views as the best elements of Nazism, Communism, Ecologism (opposition to modernity), and Traditionalism, describing this ideology as a “genuine, true, radically revolutionary, and consistent fascist fascism.”'
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 2h #Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
That is not a happy comparison if you consider what followed.
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
So the casualties will increasingly be all civilian? The dark kudos that War still has would be diminished by this. Nothing clever or complicated or noble here. It'd look more like what it essentially is - premeditated mass murder.
Yes, agreed - which is why military types often resist the inexorable logic of modern technology. They still want tanks and aircraft carriers, in their hearts they still want cavalry and muskets and swords
There is no glamour in a guy sitting in an office in Swindon yawning as he pilots Drone Bomber TY3752B over a foreign housing complex. There is even less glamour when that guy is replaced by AI. But that’s where we’re headed
Ultimately, we might be headed to war between differing AI systems. GPT47 versus Xioxing56. Before any bombs go off the two AI systems will logically confer, work out who is superior, and the weaker AI will surrender, thus avoiding war completely. War is illogical if you can deduce who will win from the start
Well my vision is it peters out as an activity on account of never passing any sort of rational cost/benefit test. But I guess I'll take this as a second best alternative.
Labour has played Ukraine very well. Nobody is now in doubt that Labour is pro NATO and big on defence. An intelligent response to get over the Corbyn years for sure.
So - do as Boris Johnson does and we'll be fine, eh Labour?
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.
The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
It's incredible. Though you could argue that it is 10 square miles that controls some considerably larger amount of Ocean. In a similar sense, the active fronts in Ukraine seems to be about a few dozen large roads in width, and a few miles in length.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
As I said at the time, he miscalculated.
He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.
A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
3 things
1. Reports of Pig Dog's survival and Ascent into Heaven are exaggerated and previous
2. In the long term you cannot beat the appearance and reality of courage and integrity. There will be political life after Johnson even if he lasts another decade and goes out in a blaze of glory
3. Oderint dum metuant. Even on your own short term, opportunist and transactional view you are exactly back to front. You get stuff out of Pig Dog if he is scared of you. AB has put himself on track to be, in 5 years time, Sir Aaron opening a super new hospital in the heart of his constituency.
@maxseddon Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
Things just seem to get worse every day.
Flags being thrown to the ground is more Stalin's Victory Parade in 1945 than Nuremburg. I'd suggest that that is Putin's allusion.
Are they identified as flags of defeated units, which is what Stalin did?
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.
For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
OT: I'm quite excited by tonight's return of Time Team. I've seen the preview edit of Ep 1 and it is well worth watching if you're interested in the subject matter.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.
For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
It is fair to say that my worry may be unfounded! And of course, there are still plenty of great constituency MPs who are less visible than the gurning grotesques on all sides.
@maxseddon Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
Things just seem to get worse every day.
Flags being thrown to the ground is more Stalin's Victory Parade in 1945 than Nuremburg. I'd suggest that that is Putin's allusion.
Are they identified as flags of defeated units, which is what Stalin did?
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
This game is still afoot.
The Russians are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.
That's not how modern armies do it, as we know.
There are also systems coming in to defend tanks against such weapons. Here's one used by the Israelis and the Germans, which we have ordered for the next version of our tanks. It has been around for a decade.
I do a lot of interviews. This one with leading Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky was as chilling as it was compelling. I keep turning it over in my mind & thought I'd do a short thread on it (with a link at end) 1/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1504585916043649024
He’s certainly right about the Fascism.
It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)
So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
Has any regime ever explicitly called itself fascist? It is surely just a boo word meaning totalitarian state not adhering to a doctrine like Marxism or Maoism
Dugin (Putin's "brain") 'in The Fourth Political Theory, promotes a political ideology that combines what he views as the best elements of Nazism, Communism, Ecologism (opposition to modernity), and Traditionalism, describing this ideology as a “genuine, true, radically revolutionary, and consistent fascist fascism.”'
Among many strong contenders l would argue that Swayne is the worst Conservative MP in the current parliament. No chance of a non-Tory in the New Forest sadly.
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
Iwo Jima is something like 10 square miles. To take that 10 square miles the US committed 10,000 troops per square mile.
The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
The Russia-Ukraine War is the largest conflict in Europe since WWII, but involves almost two orders of magnitude fewer soldiers.
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
In the 35 days between the 19th February and 26th March 1945, ~6,000 US Marines were KIA, and 21,000 wounded, missing, captured, on Iwo Jima. This would seem at least comparably bloody for the Russians.
That is not a happy comparison if you consider what followed.
Indeed not. But it always depends on how many troops and how much materiel you have to waste. The thing that always boggles me is that this was a rare case of the US taking *more* casualties than the Japanese, and yet the conventional wisdom is that the attackers will take casualties in multiples of the defenders. The Imperial Army was so profligate with its troops, it's extraordinary.
Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous
The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
There are always the odd exceptions that break the general rule...
I think for the most part MPs (on all sides) aren't hopeless, corrupt or stupid, and actually go into politics to try to make a difference.
That would certainly apply to Nick Palmer and Aaron Bell, the two MPs with whom I became personally acquainted through this site.
For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
I also worry that the profile has changed in the last 5-10 years.
I'm not sure that's true. It may well just look like it - social media makes everything more visible, and hence more susceptible to mischaracterisation by opponents.
It is fair to say that my worry may be unfounded! And of course, there are still plenty of great constituency MPs who are less visible than the gurning grotesques on all sides.
Even being a gurning grotesque on the national stage doesn't necessarily preclude being a good constituency MP, either.
Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.
And if in Ukraine they ARE valid targets within the parameters tacitly accepted. NATO supplies aren't NATO assets once in Ukraine. They're Ukrainian assets. Isn't this the essential etiquette/doublethink which allows us to fight Russia whilst not fighting Russia? To me it looks quite like the old 'proxy war' doctrine from Cold War days. Except with at least one big difference, we are proxy and they are not.
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
It appears that the people of Esh Winning (Durham) have a new Lib Dem town councillor while the people of Stone (Dartford) have another Residents Association councillor to replace a Conservative. No information from Doncaster - their website was last updated in January!
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
There are huge economic challenges ahead. How the two main parties position themselves and how that pans out in the GE is unknown but will obviously be a major influence on voting. Both are capable of losing the next election in my opinion.
If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
Dowden says the Tories are going to launch their 2-year election campaign from May onwards and it will be more like 2015 than 2019 > sounds like a bid to entrench Boris Johnson as the candidate https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
Labour need to say that, in the midst of all this horror, made worse by the lies and incompetence of the Tory government, they will make sure they look after the interests of ordinary people better than the Tories would (look at their corrupt money from Russia and parties while our grannies died to see that *of course* Labour will look after you better than that).
A couple of fairly neutral but exemplary policies to show the difference are all that is required. Historically, they've made a mess of that bit - but I have a sense that Starmer will be stronger at that part.
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
The question is whether or not Labour can make a case that the economy would be better under them. I'm yet to see it. In many respects it feels like an open goal, yet Labour seem invisible on the economy.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
There are huge economic challenges ahead. How the two main parties position themselves and how that pans out in the GE is unknown but will obviously be a major influence on voting. Both are capable of losing the next election in my opinion.
I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators
NB it says AI translators aren’t quite good enough - yet
“In some instances, machine learning is currently used to generate a first-draft translation, which is then edited or disregarded by a human subtitler as they see fit. The shortcomings of AI in handling the art of subtitling means that there’s no quick fix to the translator crunch.”
If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
The way to square that circle is to funnel immigration into wealthy areas.
Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.
There was a newsnight piece, a couple of years ago, which looked at the mechanics of asylum. Eye opening.
Somehow, the Shires ended up with almost no asylum seekers.
I should expect he will hold it. It has been a Tory held seat since 2005 and Labour are nowhere near the 9.5% swing to take it.
Kawczynski has also made clear Putin should be forced out of Ukraine, even if he does not believe the UK can take large numbers of Ukranian refugees. In his strong Leave seat many will support that
It appears that the people of Esh Winning (Durham) have a new Lib Dem town councillor while the people of Stone (Dartford) have another Residents Association councillor to replace a Conservative. No information from Doncaster - their website was last updated in January!
If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
The way to square that circle is to funnel immigration into wealthy areas.
Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.
You'd think - but just wait for the howls of protest if that ever happened. Cheap Labour au pairs are one thing but actual w/c immigrants cheek by jowl -- we'll see.
Dowden says the Tories are going to launch their 2-year election campaign from May onwards and it will be more like 2015 than 2019 > sounds like a bid to entrench Boris Johnson as the candidate https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522
I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators
"...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."
Is that per minute of screen time ? If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
He’s got a point, tho. It will be a catastrophe for Ukraine - greater than any war - if it loses 5m of its people. Especially as they will tend to be the younger and more mobile. And kids
The further they go from Ukraine and the better educated they are, the less likely they are to ever return.
I’m not saying this because I want to keep the Ukes out. 500,000 hard working young Ukrainians, permanently settled here, would be great for the UK
But a disaster for Ukraine
Yes. Brain drains on Russia are highly popular here, but Ukraine is getting brain drained too.
But sensitive area, because the right answer and the xenophobic one happen to coincide
The solution is a kind of Marshall plan for post-war Ukraine so that its expats want to go back and it becomes an attractive place to build a life in.
I actually think there is a decent chance this could happen. But first Putin has to be dealt with.
If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
The secret weapon for the Tories here is asking Starmer if he will scrap the minimum income arrangement that keeps out a lot of arranged brides from Pakistan.
Comments
A bit like Find the lady card game or the one with the ball under the three cups.
There is no glamour in a guy sitting in an office in Swindon yawning as he pilots Drone Bomber TY3752B over a foreign housing complex. There is even less glamour when that guy is replaced by AI. But that’s where we’re headed
Ultimately, we might be headed to war between differing AI systems. GPT47 versus Xioxing56. Before any bombs go off the two AI systems will logically confer, work out who is superior, and the weaker AI will surrender, thus avoiding war completely. War is illogical if you can deduce who will win from the start
Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
Pissed off the world is supplying Ukraine with endless shit-hot Ruskie-killing kit? There's an answer to that. DON'T INVADE YOUR NEIGHBOURS.
A great book on the subject
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Anatomy-Fascism-Robert-Paxton/dp/0141014326/ref=nodl_
For balance I should add that PB has had other MPs contributing about whom I could not be so complimentary.
https://pro.politico.eu/news/147671
Right before Truss blows up the talks in Ireland
The Russkies are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.
There are also systems coming in Report of Russian casualties being treated in Gomel Area, in Belarus, and 2500 bodies being shipped home.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3432924-more-than-2500-bodies-of-russian-servicemen-shipped-to-russia-from-gomel-belarus-media.html
(poss. slight warning on that source - some association with Radio Free-Europe, which for some will raise questions.)
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971
@maxseddon
Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, which hosted the World Cup final in 2018, is packed out for a pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation.
Lots of reports of state employees being bussed in. They’re watching a video with Ukrainian flags being thrown to the ground
Meaning that (eg) a NATO supplied vehicle in Ukraine is not a NATO vehicle, it's a Ukrainian vehicle?
We must always remember the cornered rat story from his childhood.
That position cannot hold long term
Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.
That’s my reading of it, too.
Not an unexpected development.
https://stanfordpolitics.org/2017/02/02/eurasianism-new-fascism/
The scale of WW2 is mind boggling.
That and Novichok on his door-handles.
There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
1. Reports of Pig Dog's survival and Ascent into Heaven are exaggerated and previous
2. In the long term you cannot beat the appearance and reality of courage and integrity. There will be political life after Johnson even if he lasts another decade and goes out in a blaze of glory
3. Oderint dum metuant. Even on your own short term, opportunist and transactional view you are exactly back to front. You get stuff out of Pig Dog if he is scared of you. AB has put himself on track to be, in 5 years time, Sir Aaron opening a super new hospital in the heart of his constituency.
Are they identified as flags of defeated units, which is what Stalin did?
https://youtu.be/mSXEJ5Ud3Co?t=10
https://twitter.com/thetimeteam/status/1504797479660892160?s=20&t=buQlhTzJ3I6L6NS1xcD5Eg
"There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.
Starmer
Satisfied 33% (no change from Jan)
Dissatisfied 43% (-5 pts)
Way ahead of Johnson
LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 35% (+4)
LDM: 10% (-3)
GRN: 7% (-2)
Via @IpsosUK, On 9-16 March,
Changes w/ 19-25 January.
Keep Johnson on as long as possible!
The Russians are employing their tanks WW2 style, and not with supporting infantry, who are there to deal with attackers with anti-tank missiles etc.
That's not how modern armies do it, as we know.
There are also systems coming in to defend tanks against such weapons. Here's one used by the Israelis and the Germans, which we have ordered for the next version of our tanks. It has been around for a decade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
This is quite good though
Liz Truss persuaded by aides to share a photo of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to celebrate her release. https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/1504359381038772225/photo/1
Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...
SKS 33% satisfied.
Slightly, not way ahead.
This is polling from late last year, but only 26% of people have even heard of the shadow chancellor.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/30/how-well-known-starmers-shadow-cabinet
I think many would agree
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
·
2h
Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia.
The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.
The video was recorded near Alagir in North Ossetia.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848
https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/
We may still be dealing with war in eastern europe in 2024.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522
Rees-Mogg says Ukraine war has shown that partygate scandal was just 'disproportionate fluff' - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/18/uk-politics-live-tory-conservatives-spring-conference-boris-johnson-latest-updates?page=with:block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1#block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1
Labour need to say that, in the midst of all this horror, made worse by the lies and incompetence of the Tory government, they will make sure they look after the interests of ordinary people better than the Tories would (look at their corrupt money from Russia and parties while our grannies died to see that *of course* Labour will look after you better than that).
A couple of fairly neutral but exemplary policies to show the difference are all that is required. Historically, they've made a mess of that bit - but I have a sense that Starmer will be stronger at that part.
“In some instances, machine learning is currently used to generate a first-draft translation, which is then edited or disregarded by a human subtitler as they see fit. The shortcomings of AI in handling the art of subtitling means that there’s no quick fix to the translator crunch.”
Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.
There was a newsnight piece, a couple of years ago, which looked at the mechanics of asylum. Eye opening.
Somehow, the Shires ended up with almost no asylum seekers.
Kawczynski has also made clear Putin should be forced out of Ukraine, even if he does not believe the UK can take large numbers of Ukranian refugees. In his strong Leave seat many will support that
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/shrewsbury/2022/03/01/shrewsbury-mp-insists-putin-must-be-forced-out-of-ukraine-following-discussions-with-ukraine-ambassador/
Is that per minute of screen time ?
If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
I actually think there is a decent chance this could happen. But first Putin has to be dealt with.