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Will the Shrewsbury MP retain his seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Who said that Mercedes were sandbagging ?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    NB it says AI translators aren’t quite good enough - yet


    “In some instances, machine learning is currently used to generate a first-draft translation, which is then edited or disregarded by a human subtitler as they see fit. The shortcomings of AI in handling the art of subtitling means that there’s no quick fix to the translator crunch.”

    I was always taught it’s the difference between translators and interpreters. A translator is fluent enough to literally translate what’s been written or said. An interpreter does that, but also understands the culture, context, and idioms, and can tell you what it MEANT in your language. To properly translate good drama, I suspect you need the latter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Georgia could get interesting shortly...

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2h
    Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia.

    The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.

    The video was recorded near Alagir in North Ossetia.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848

    Unless they are put on transporters, they'll be knackered by the time they get there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,650

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Why???? It just means that ABDPJohnson can indulge in more skulduggery.
  • Scottish Parliament Voting Intention:

    Constituency:
    SNP: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (-1)

    Regional:
    SNP: 34% (nc)
    LAB: 22% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    GRN: 13% (-1)
    LDM: 8% (=)
    ALBA: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.

    Some Labour gains in Scotland
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Be careful what you wish for. In a few years PM Rayner could be wrecking Rishi's Tory leadership as she cashes in on her political honeymoon after taking over from Sir Keir.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022
    ClippP said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Why???? It just means that ABDPJohnson can indulge in more skulduggery.
    It's the final vestige of the Coalition - erased.

    Of course, their insistence that we couldn't even talk about our membership of the EU meant the LibDems finally ended up delivering Brexit. So some good came of it....
  • felix said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
    Ageism is the last bastion of silly prejudices left it seems...
    The user in question attacked my dead grandmother, nothing is off the table for this old fool
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Georgia could get interesting shortly...

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2h
    Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia.

    The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.

    The video was recorded near Alagir in North Ossetia.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504770349187149848

    Unless they are put on transporters, they'll be knackered by the time they get there.
    830 k to mariupol 1600 to kyiv
  • Bad Iran hostage news..

    Patrick Wintour
    @patrickwintour
    Morad Tabhaz the British Iranian has been taken back to Evin prison only 48 hours after being released to his Tehran family home under armed guard. Tabhaz family say"This was never a proper furlough, but just a cover to give UK govt a victory lap for the release of the others".
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1504806141372604447
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That number makes no sense.

    Squid game lasts about 500 minutes.

    500 x 13 = $6500

    This is for a TV drama seen by 100 million people which must have made Netflix tens of millions of dollars?! $6500???

    A false economy, perhaps. Or the number is wrong

    Perhaps they mean $13 per minute of the translator’s time. ie $780 an hour. Which seems arguably more plausible. But again, with the vast sums being generated surely all they have to do is multiply that sum by ten and they can hire more translators. They can certainly afford it

    Doesn’t add up. Poor journalism
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Among many strong contenders l would argue that Swayne is the worst Conservative MP in the current parliament. No chance of a non-Tory in the New Forest sadly.

    Or Chope. What it is about that part of the world?
  • felix said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
    Ageism is the last bastion of silly prejudices left it seems...
    The user in question attacked my dead grandmother, nothing is off the table for this old fool
    I did not
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,650
    edited March 2022

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
    So they buy themselves 9 months grace. No wonder they want to repeal their law now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    algarkirk said:

    Outstanding stuff in the Atlantic:

    "Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."

    "...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/

    If Putin wants a war with NATO because it would be a gift to him then he can do so without going round the houses by bombing anywhere he likes (arms delivery routes?) within NATO. Just the once is enough. He isn't. Obvious tentative conclusions should therefore be drawn.

    The point is he doesn't want a war with NATO today. But he may want one soon as his only way of securing his position.
    Direct war with NATO likely does the reverse.

    It likely ends in defeat for Russia, the end if his presidency and an appearance at the War Ceimes tribunal. Or mutually assured destruction.

    In neither case does it preserve his position in charge of Russia.

    Hence he is still unlikely to invade a NATO nation

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    IanB2 said:

    Among many strong contenders l would argue that Swayne is the worst Conservative MP in the current parliament. No chance of a non-Tory in the New Forest sadly.

    Or Chope. What it is about that part of the world?
    Can’t we have several different categories of “worst” like the Oscars? “Worst for constituents”. “Worst and most disgraceful policy positions”. “Worst fie”.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited March 2022

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That number makes no sense.

    Squid game lasts about 500 minutes.

    500 x 13 = $6500

    This is for a TV drama seen by 100 million people which must have made Netflix tens of millions of dollars?! $6500???

    A false economy, perhaps. Or the number is wrong

    Perhaps they mean $13 per minute of the translator’s time. ie $780 an hour. Which seems arguably more plausible. But again, with the vast sums being generated surely all they have to do is multiply that sum by ten and they can hire more translators. They can certainly afford it

    Doesn’t add up. Poor journalism
    Neither figure makes much sense, but the former sounds slightly more likely.

    The subtitle translation on Rakuten is free open source by volunteers. It's a bit rough in places, but vastly superior to Netflix's efforts in conveying the sense of the dramas.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,650
    It’s a bit crap that we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see the back of Boris and co, but hopefully the defeat will be bigger.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2022
    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The Moscow rally has a big sign saying: "For a world without fascism"

    Not pictured: a second sign saying "get rid of Putin".
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    PB regulars, of course, are well aware of this. But it does look like it's generally understood that the Lords won't insist on its wrecking amendment when it comes back to them on Tuesday (as predicted).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    edited March 2022
    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Scottish Parliament Voting Intention:

    Constituency:
    SNP: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (-1)

    Regional:
    SNP: 34% (nc)
    LAB: 22% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    GRN: 13% (-1)
    LDM: 8% (=)
    ALBA: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.

    Some Labour gains in Scotland

    This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift

    See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda

    As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow

    They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future

    Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ClippP said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Why????
    Because the FTPA was a crock of shit.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    They could go to January, possibly early February 2025.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    IanB2 said:

    Among many strong contenders l would argue that Swayne is the worst Conservative MP in the current parliament. No chance of a non-Tory in the New Forest sadly.

    Or Chope. What it is about that part of the world?
    Christchurch, Chope's seat, had a LD MP from 1993 to 1997
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21

    So is the higher rate in Scotland because we still wear masks in public buildings, etc and still have regulations about social distancing etc or despite them? Is there any evidence that our remaining restrictions actually have any efficacy at all?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to this. Throughout the pandemic there was far too much emphasis on bosiness and telling people what to do and not nearly enough attention on what actually worked. And we still don't seem to know.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
    So they buy themselves 9 months grace. No wonder they want to repeal their law now.
    Labour's manifesto also pledged to repeal FTPA.
  • Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    They could go to January, possibly early February 2025.
    That is nearly 3 years away !!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Live stream of Putin's rally. He's speaking now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa9_7dis174
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    If only we could repeal him as easily.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited March 2022
    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
    So they buy themselves 9 months grace. No wonder they want to repeal their law now.
    Labour's manifesto also pledged to repeal FTPA.
    It’s like First Past the Post. If you look like being in power alone you will always support a voting system that delivers more power and the PM’s choice of election date. The FTPA only had one purpose - to prevent the Tories triggering an election the LibDems didn’t want. It has its time and served its purpose but was never going to survive.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
    No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    NB it says AI translators aren’t quite good enough - yet


    “In some instances, machine learning is currently used to generate a first-draft translation, which is then edited or disregarded by a human subtitler as they see fit. The shortcomings of AI in handling the art of subtitling means that there’s no quick fix to the translator crunch.”

    The core problem at the heart of all AI translation algorithms is they are all basically still "transformers". They don't understand the language, they have simply learned if I see X in Korean, that is Y in English. Sure its now not a single word, it is several words or sentences, but there are lots of things in which rely on cultural knowledge and unwritten implication (and this can be ever changing e.g. talking about getting "suit-cased"), especially when it comes to things like drama and especially comedy.

    One mega problem, and I am trying to remember the exact linguistic term in English, for when you never specifically say who or what is being talked about (or acted upon), but every native speaker implicitly knows what that is.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
    Macron is in an active election campaign - in which at least some of his biggest opponents have found themselves in the wrong side of the issue - so you can't draw a direct comparison.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Pulpstar said:

    Let's be sensible here.

    Russia isn't going to bomb anything on the polish side of the border, they'd need to get through western Ukraine's defenses AND Polish guards and Poland's defenses. It's a de facto escalation to NATO vs Russia with boots and planes in theatre - my guess is they'll try and target the weapons en route once in Ukraine.

    And NATO will ensure that Ukrainian personnel take over driving the delivery vehicles and trains somewhere inside Poland, so no NATO country personnel are involved in any official, sanctioned capacity inside Ukraine.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited March 2022

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
    I think Boris does, but it’s less visible: his bounce is vs what was about to happen to him. He’s shifted an impossible polling situation to normal midterms he may (and I think will) recover from.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    biggles said:

    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
    So they buy themselves 9 months grace. No wonder they want to repeal their law now.
    Labour's manifesto also pledged to repeal FTPA.
    It’s like First Past the Post. If you look like being in power alone you will always support a voting system that delivers more power and the PM’s choice of election date. The FTPA only had one purpose - to prevent the Tories triggering an election the LibDems didn’t want. It has its time and served its purpose but was never going to survive.
    Exactly. It should have been limited to the 2010 parliament only from the beginning. It was always obvious that it was meaningless with a majority government.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
  • I have been contemplating a fantasy (or nightmare) cabinet of all the non talents across the house. Obviously Johnson would keep his job with Corbyn as foreign secretary with special responsibility for the middle east, Abbott as Chancellor of the exchequer, McDonnell at Northern Ireland, Williamson & Grayling back at Education & Transport, Swayne at defence. Rees-Mogg would be in cabinet as minister for a classless society & Chope as minister for women & equalities. Does anyone else have any ideas?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    biggles said:

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
    I think Boris does, but it’s less visible: his bounce is vs what was about to happen to him. He’s shifted an impossible polling situation to normal midterms he may (and I think will) recover from.
    The bounce for Boris seems to be that instead of being 8 or 9 points down the Tories are heading towards being 5 or maybe even just 4 points down.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I have been contemplating a fantasy (or nightmare) cabinet of all the non talents across the house. Obviously Johnson would keep his job with Corbyn as foreign secretary with special responsibility for the middle east, Abbott as Chancellor of the exchequer, McDonnell at Northern Ireland, Williamson & Grayling back at Education & Transport, Swayne at defence. Rees-Mogg would be in cabinet as minister for a classless society & Chope as minister for women & equalities. Does anyone else have any ideas?

    Nadine stays in place
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited March 2022

    I have been contemplating a fantasy (or nightmare) cabinet of all the non talents across the house. Obviously Johnson would keep his job with Corbyn as foreign secretary with special responsibility for the middle east, Abbott as Chancellor of the exchequer, McDonnell at Northern Ireland, Williamson & Grayling back at Education & Transport, Swayne at defence. Rees-Mogg would be in cabinet as minister for a classless society & Chope as minister for women & equalities. Does anyone else have any ideas?

    No Burgon? No Dorries?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    I wasn't asking for a translation, just where I might be able to find the English stream, which used to be here....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60774819
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    That is a good question and a good point. Most I can think of that are very close in style to ours I don't think do (hence your point), but I assume that is because they are generally copies of our system, so I'm not sure that is particularly relevant. Lots of non Westminster style parliaments do (I would say most, but I don't know that, so not confident to say so)

    The USA obviously does.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
    Macron is in an active election campaign - in which at least some of his biggest opponents have found themselves in the wrong side of the issue - so you can't draw a direct comparison.
    Okay. I’m happy to give in Applicant. 🙂 We shouldn’t expect any bounce for Boris or Tories with this crisis on, and all Issues with Boris taken off the news. Although rally round the government in crisis bounce is a real thing, we shouldn’t expect it here in this situation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_'round_the_flag_effect

    No more arguing, the racing starting
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    Please tell me that you just read that, and that fluency in Nepali is also one of the knowledge ni he's this board can fill.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    ping said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
    The way to square that circle is to funnel immigration into wealthy areas.

    Which is, by design, the opposite of what has happened in recent decades.

    There was a newsnight piece, a couple of years ago, which looked at the mechanics of asylum. Eye opening.

    Somehow, the Shires ended up with almost no asylum seekers.
    Property prices being an issue there. Which is something you can say about many of the problems we have in this country.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    That is a good question and a good point. Most I can think of that are very close in style to ours I don't think do (hence your point), but I assume that is because they are generally copies of our system, so I'm not sure that is particularly relevant. Lots of non Westminster style parliaments do (I would say most, but I don't know that, so not confident to say so)

    The USA obviously does.
    Is it mostly a question of culture and history though? I.e. Could Congress change it if it wanted to or is it in the Constitution?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    Please tell me that you just read that, and that fluency in Nepali is also one of the knowledge ni he's this board can fill.
    A job with Netflix beckons...
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    I wasn't asking for a translation, just where I might be able to find the English stream, which used to be here....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60774819
    "We are aware of an issue with the text display in this live page and are working to resolve to issue as soon as possible"
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2022
    Max Seddon's live tweeting of the Nuremberg Rally Mk.II is worth following: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812170709811204

    Everyone getting rather overexcited over Putin's speech getting cut off mid sentence before cutting to a singer/people waving their flags, video here: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812957338943490

    5 minutes in to the interruption they're now claiming a speech made about an hour ago as live.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    Please tell me that you just read that, and that fluency in Nepali is also one of the knowledge ni he's this board can fill.
    म नेपालीमा प्रबल छु
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1504755525774462976

    Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.

    In what universe does a no change poll extend a lead?
    The polls are static
    And some have it a lot closer than this one.

    There has to be a rally round flag crisis bounce in there for the Tories somewhere though, surely?
    I don't see why. UK troops aren't visibly fighting (and dying).

    "There's a war on" may only work if you're seen to be actively fighing the war.
    Covid war gave all governments round world a bounce, known as rally round flag in crisis. Boris had nice vaccine bounce.
    Macron seems to have Ukraine crisis bounce, Biden and Boris not so.
    Macron is in an active election campaign - in which at least some of his biggest opponents have found themselves in the wrong side of the issue - so you can't draw a direct comparison.
    Okay. I’m happy to give in Applicant. 🙂 We shouldn’t expect any bounce for Boris or Tories with this crisis on, and all Issues with Boris taken off the news. Although rally round the government in crisis bounce is a real thing, we shouldn’t expect it here in this situation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_'round_the_flag_effect

    No more arguing, the racing starting
    OK. I'm watching too. I'll just say that I don't see that the government *is* in a crisis in Ukraine.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Leon said:

    Scottish Parliament Voting Intention:

    Constituency:
    SNP: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (-1)

    Regional:
    SNP: 34% (nc)
    LAB: 22% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    GRN: 13% (-1)
    LDM: 8% (=)
    ALBA: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.

    Some Labour gains in Scotland

    This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift

    See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda

    As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow

    They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future

    Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
    Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-nicola-sturgeons-time-as-first-minister-may-be-coming-to-an-end-with-ukraine-and-cost-of-living-crises-affecting-support-for-leaving-uk-joyce-mcmillan-3616408

    "The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited March 2022
    DavidL said:

    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21

    So is the higher rate in Scotland because we still wear masks in public buildings, etc and still have regulations about social distancing etc or despite them? Is there any evidence that our remaining restrictions actually have any efficacy at all?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to this. Throughout the pandemic there was far too much emphasis on bosiness and telling people what to do and not nearly enough attention on what actually worked. And we still don't seem to know.
    The difference between England and Scotland now seems to be purely a timing issue with the BA2 wave. England will likely catch up.

    It's possible that the good weather this next week will mean that England will peak at a lower level, because people will enjoy spending time together outside more than otherwise.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That's interesting - I have a second job running a one-man translation business (not subtitling) and I'm certainly seeing the trends described. Over the last couple of years, nearly all my work has shifted from straight translation to computer translation - the system does the first job and I edit it and am paid 30% less than I used to get for doing all the work, but am able to do it twice as quickly, so it's a good deal all round. The computer translation is astonishingly good most of the time, and it's always plausible and grammatical, so you look at a sentence and think "that sounds all right" but if you know the subject and check the original ("they can't have meant that!") you can find that the meaning has been reversed or a key phrase omitted.

    Immodestly speaking, I'm good at understanding complex documents and spotting logical flaws in the translation, so I'm now paid a couple of thousand a month retainer in return for working fast when stuff comes through. But I can well imagine that someone who is just pumping out subtitles as fast as possible without necessarily following the overall theme will trip up as the computer won't do that either.

    Using English as a bridge language has been going on for years - the EU do it all the time. There are plenty of Danes who know English really well, and Bulgarians likewise, but very few Danes who know Bulgarian or vice versa.

    It's just an evening/weekend job for me to fit in alongside political work, but my cousin is a full-time professional (French/English) subtitler, and says he's never been in more demand.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Nepali

    Officials say 130 people have been rescued from the attacked Mariopole theater
    Ukraine's human rights commissioner's office says 130 people have been rescued so far from the rubble of a Russian-attacked theater in Mariopol.

    Hundreds of people were taking refuge in an underground shelter when Russia bombed the theater.

    The building of the theater has been damaged due to the attack.

    In a televised address, Ukraine's human rights commissioner said rescue operations were under way and that 1,300 people were still trapped in the basement.
    I wasn't asking for a translation, just where I might be able to find the English stream, which used to be here....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60774819
    Glitch to be sorted in due course I assume. Meanwhile in chrome on windows rt click and translate to English
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Dura_Ace said:

    ping said:

    RobD said:

    Are any of the young Tory MPs actually any good? They either seem hopeless, corrupt, stupid or all of the previous

    The MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme is a pretty good egg.
    As I said at the time, he miscalculated.

    He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.

    A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
    I disagree. I thought he spoke up for us the people, and that’s got to count for something.
    One would hope so. Depends a lot on what the Conservatives decide to do with Boris. If they dump him, @Tissue_Price is a prophet and his career should profit from that. If they cling to Bozza, he will be a prophet without honour, which is a shame.

    (But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
    I wasn’t seeking to be argumentative PING, but having wrapped a Putin apologist and establishment infiltrator in ermine, Big Dog a deader dog now than even before the war and everything went on pause!

    If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
    I hope so, but I am fearful for what the legacy of Johnson in terms of how we do politics will be.

    Basically, people who strive for power for its own sake (which seems to be all this is about) are the ones who shouldn't be given it.
    Johnson has completely normalised outright lying and blatant grift. There will be no return to more decorous times.
    You dont like decorous surely?

    In any case you're wrong- it's no more inevitable than history being a path from barbarism to civilisation. Things can ans have gotten worse and might stay that way, but its not certain. Were that the case things would never have improved to the point that lying and graft became noteworthy.
  • Dorries & Patel would keep their current jobs with Burgon at justice.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That's interesting - I have a second job running a one-man translation business (not subtitling) and I'm certainly seeing the trends described. Over the last couple of years, nearly all my work has shifted from straight translation to computer translation - the system does the first job and I edit it and am paid 30% less than I used to get for doing all the work, but am able to do it twice as quickly, so it's a good deal all round. The computer translation is astonishingly good most of the time, and it's always plausible and grammatical, so you look at a sentence and think "that sounds all right" but if you know the subject and check the original ("they can't have meant that!") you can find that the meaning has been reversed or a key phrase omitted.

    Immodestly speaking, I'm good at understanding complex documents and spotting logical flaws in the translation, so I'm now paid a couple of thousand a month retainer in return for working fast when stuff comes through. But I can well imagine that someone who is just pumping out subtitles as fast as possible without necessarily following the overall theme will trip up as the computer won't do that either.

    It's just an evening/weekend job for me to fit in alongside political work, but my cousin is a full-time professional (French/English) subtitler, and says he's never been in more demand.
    "Immodestly" is called 'with legendary modesty' in these parts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Most significant part of this poll is people say they now trust Labour to manage immigration more than they trust the Tories. https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1504774791986884616

    If Labour can convince a chunk of its Brexity target voters that it will be tough on immigration whilst at the same time reassuring its metropolitan base that it won't be, that is electoral gold and almost certainly PM Starmer.
    The secret weapon for the Tories here is asking Starmer if he will scrap the minimum income arrangement that keeps out a lot of arranged brides from Pakistan.
    No doubt they'll be using it if they think it'll work. But I'm less sure about them being able to win another election off the back of that sort of sentiment. I used to think it more than likely but not so much now. I think Brexit caused me to get a bit too sour about the electorate. I'm emerging from that somewhat now.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Nigelb said:

    Wha just happened to the BBC Ukraine live stream ?

    "...
    हमला गरिएको मारिओपोलको नाटकघरबाट १३० को उद्धार गरिएको सरकारी भनाइ
    युक्रेनको मानवअधिकार आयुक्तको कार्यालयले रुसले आक्रमण गरेको मारिओपोलको एउटा नाटकघरको भग्नावशेषबाट हालसम्म १ सय ३० जनाको उद्धार गरिएको जनाएको छ।

    रुसले उक्त नाटकघरमाथि बमबारी गर्दा त्यहाँका भूमिगत आश्रयस्थलमा सयौँ मानिसहरूले आश्रय लिइरहेका थिए।

    हमलाले नाटकघरको भवन क्षतिग्रस्त बनेको छ।

    टेलिभिजन सम्बोधनमा युक्रेनका मानवअधिकार आयुक्तले उद्धार कार्य जारी रहेको र त्यहाँ भवनको तल्लो भागमा १३ सय मानिसहरू अझै फसिरहेको बताए।
    ..."

    Looks like the BBC have pulled it off their site for the time being.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited March 2022

    The Moscow rally has a big sign saying: "For a world without fascism"

    Moscow still hosting the Irony Olympics this year then?
    Their comments around how Ukraine should be free to choose its own future, simultaneous to invading them and demanding they give up certain choices, were a strong contender for gold.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
    No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
    You and I have had this discussion before, and I respect your arguments on this, but I do disagree. True when we were in that position it was a shambles, but that was because it was new to MPs. However what it did give is power back to Parliament and engaged the population. All other Govt we have had have been elected dictatorships. Except for a few exceptions MPs have been powerless.

    I would not want a position where a Govt could not fall, but I am happy for Parliament to tell a Govt it is wrong and to change or stand down for another group of MPs to take over the reigns if it can get the support of parliament.

    This is of course the norm in many cases in the world.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    That is a good question and a good point. Most I can think of that are very close in style to ours I don't think do (hence your point), but I assume that is because they are generally copies of our system, so I'm not sure that is particularly relevant. Lots of non Westminster style parliaments do (I would say most, but I don't know that, so not confident to say so)

    The USA obviously does.
    Is it mostly a question of culture and history though? I.e. Could Congress change it if it wanted to or is it in the Constitution?
    The appointment of the US head of government is in the Constitution. If Congress wanted to replace the current president with anyone other than the current vice president, I believe they would have to first choose the intended new president as Speaker of the House of Representatives, then impeach and convict both the president and the vice president so close together that a new VP couldn't be chosen.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Random web stuff. I like this comparison from a site that compares different things (e.g. a pre-1970 Big Mac with a Big Mac today). But this comparison is remarkable:

    https://dvk6to1kg8ie0.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BbHf8JU-5f8876b1dfca1.jpg
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    .
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
    No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
    You and I have had this discussion before, and I respect your arguments on this, but I do disagree. True when we were in that position it was a shambles, but that was because it was new to MPs. However what it did give is power back to Parliament and engaged the population. All other Govt we have had have been elected dictatorships. Except for a few exceptions MPs have been powerless.

    I would not want a position where a Govt could not fall, but I am happy for Parliament to tell a Govt it is wrong and to change or stand down for another group of MPs to take over the reigns if it can get the support of parliament.

    This is of course the norm in many cases in the world.
    They haven't abolished votes of no confidence, so Parliament can still do that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited March 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That's interesting - I have a second job running a one-man translation business (not subtitling) and I'm certainly seeing the trends described. Over the last couple of years, nearly all my work has shifted from straight translation to computer translation - the system does the first job and I edit it and am paid 30% less than I used to get for doing all the work, but am able to do it twice as quickly, so it's a good deal all round. The computer translation is astonishingly good most of the time, and it's always plausible and grammatical, so you look at a sentence and think "that sounds all right" but if you know the subject and check the original ("they can't have meant that!") you can find that the meaning has been reversed or a key phrase omitted.

    Immodestly speaking, I'm good at understanding complex documents and spotting logical flaws in the translation, so I'm now paid a couple of thousand a month retainer in return for working fast when stuff comes through. But I can well imagine that someone who is just pumping out subtitles as fast as possible without necessarily following the overall theme will trip up as the computer won't do that either.

    It's just an evening/weekend job for me to fit in alongside political work, but my cousin is a full-time professional (French/English) subtitler, and says he's never been in more demand.
    I actually think this is an example of where AI is creating opportunity, rather than taking it away. Without the AI first pass, there are lots of things that don't need to be translated and so wouldn't be. Now if you can automatically get most of the way there and then pay somebody a small amount of money to do corrections, that opens opportunities that probably weren't viable or cost effective before.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Here's video of Putin suddenly vanishing mid-sentence. Where is he?!

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812321637556224
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,787
    F1: I did toy with an outsider breaking nto the top 3 in first practice, but never would've backed Gasly. Ferraris ahead of Verstappen, but it's only practice.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited March 2022
    DavidL said:

    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21

    So is the higher rate in Scotland because we still wear masks in public buildings, etc and still have regulations about social distancing etc or despite them? Is there any evidence that our remaining restrictions actually have any efficacy at all?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to this. Throughout the pandemic there was far too much emphasis on bosiness and telling people what to do and not nearly enough attention on what actually worked. And we still don't seem to know.
    Is it differential recording? Mr Johnson has basically given the nudge and wink to forget covid down south.

    The R levels varyt a lot, too; at the moment the English areas tend to he higher in Malmesbury's tables, but that was certainly the other way round for some time before.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Here's video of Putin suddenly vanishing mid-sentence. Where is he?!

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812321637556224

    Perhaps he had an incident like Justin Bieber a few years ago....

    https://twitter.com/braincharmrules/status/743916855056793600?s=20&t=15tCsgfifQ_AwSCr93n7jA
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Live stream of Putin's rally. He's speaking now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa9_7dis174

    Histrionic, orchestrated nationalism. Europe has seen this before.

    It’s like an SNP march through Edinburgh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    felix said:

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1504797429014712321

    These are not the numbers of a Government that will be re-elected.

    Keep telling yourself that if it keeps you happy
    Bitter old man
    Ageism is the last bastion of silly prejudices left it seems...
    it has been noted there appears to be many 'last' prejudices, including on accent, profession and height.

    People are a bit quick on the draw with such conclusions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Here's video of Putin suddenly vanishing mid-sentence. Where is he?!

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504812321637556224

    Either beamed up in one of the UFOs we've heard so much about, or the video was edited. I can't be sure which.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    I defended the FTPA for a long time as to my mind most of the identified 'problems' were to do with political culture. But the end of the May period and early Johnson demonstrated it really was adding no value and that it could be worked around so simply made it pointless.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ping said:

    Just had a few quid on @MoonRabbit ’s nags. Very long odds today!

    And a 50/1 Acca. For fun;

    1.30 Vauban
    2.10 State Man
    3.30 A Plus Tard

    Don’t waste your money backing my tips, btw. Unlike politics betting, I don’t have an edge in horse racing.

    Good luck all!

    Good start Ping! Is this your day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    I see we are making future predictions about AI. I note, completely randomly, that the world of film and tv is currently suffering an acute shortage of translators

    https://restofworld.org/2021/lost-in-translation-the-global-streaming-boom-is-creating-a-translator-shortage/

    "...Netflix pays $13 per minute for translation of Korean audio into English subtitles, but only a fraction of that figure ends up directly in the pockets of translators...."

    Is that per minute of screen time ?
    If so, no wonder the subtitles are absolute shite.
    That's interesting - I have a second job running a one-man translation business (not subtitling) and I'm certainly seeing the trends described. Over the last couple of years, nearly all my work has shifted from straight translation to computer translation - the system does the first job and I edit it and am paid 30% less than I used to get for doing all the work, but am able to do it twice as quickly, so it's a good deal all round. The computer translation is astonishingly good most of the time, and it's always plausible and grammatical, so you look at a sentence and think "that sounds all right" but if you know the subject and check the original ("they can't have meant that!") you can find that the meaning has been reversed or a key phrase omitted.

    Immodestly speaking, I'm good at understanding complex documents and spotting logical flaws in the translation, so I'm now paid a couple of thousand a month retainer in return for working fast when stuff comes through. But I can well imagine that someone who is just pumping out subtitles as fast as possible without necessarily following the overall theme will trip up as the computer won't do that either.

    Using English as a bridge language has been going on for years - the EU do it all the time. There are plenty of Danes who know English really well, and Bulgarians likewise, but very few Danes who know Bulgarian or vice versa.

    It's just an evening/weekend job for me to fit in alongside political work, but my cousin is a full-time professional (French/English) subtitler, and says he's never been in more demand.
    What are you like with Korean ? :smile:
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited March 2022
    Applicant said:

    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    That is a good question and a good point. Most I can think of that are very close in style to ours I don't think do (hence your point), but I assume that is because they are generally copies of our system, so I'm not sure that is particularly relevant. Lots of non Westminster style parliaments do (I would say most, but I don't know that, so not confident to say so)

    The USA obviously does.
    Is it mostly a question of culture and history though? I.e. Could Congress change it if it wanted to or is it in the Constitution?
    The appointment of the US head of government is in the Constitution. If Congress wanted to replace the current president with anyone other than the current vice president, I believe they would have to first choose the intended new president as Speaker of the House of Representatives, then impeach and convict both the president and the vice president so close together that a new VP couldn't be chosen.
    It just shows that you cannot devise a perfect system of checks and balances for all conceivable situations. If you plan for simultaneous corruption of both POTUS and VPOTUS, then you open the door to abuse of those emergency powers by Congress against the Executive Branch in other scenarios (eg. for a wild potential scenario, White Supremacists gaining a working majority in Congress via corrupt State elections practices).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21

    So is the higher rate in Scotland because we still wear masks in public buildings, etc and still have regulations about social distancing etc or despite them? Is there any evidence that our remaining restrictions actually have any efficacy at all?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to this. Throughout the pandemic there was far too much emphasis on bosiness and telling people what to do and not nearly enough attention on what actually worked. And we still don't seem to know.
    Is it differential recording? Mr Johnson has basically given the nudge and wink to forget covid down south.
    Could be. Since we stopped requiring PCRs and contented ourselves with LFTs I suspect the % of results actually officially recorded has plumeted to useless levels. It is possible that the level is even more useless in England than Scotland where LFTs are still generally available.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    F1: I did toy with an outsider breaking nto the top 3 in first practice, but never would've backed Gasly. Ferraris ahead of Verstappen, but it's only practice.

    Red Bull looking ominous.
    Mercedes good news for my lay...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Does that buy the Tories more time? Could they go beyond May 2024, to Dec 2024 if they need to?
    Theoretically an election could be held February 2025, I think? Although the Tories don't have a good record in February elections....
    So they buy themselves 9 months grace. No wonder they want to repeal their law now.
    Labour's manifesto also pledged to repeal FTPA.
    Yes, its days were clearly numbered as neither side wants it.
  • Some over sensitive Jew students complained about antisemite Lowkey at the NUS conference this month. They have a safe space for them.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
    No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
    You and I have had this discussion before, and I respect your arguments on this, but I do disagree. True when we were in that position it was a shambles, but that was because it was new to MPs. However what it did give is power back to Parliament and engaged the population. All other Govt we have had have been elected dictatorships. Except for a few exceptions MPs have been powerless.

    I would not want a position where a Govt could not fall, but I am happy for Parliament to tell a Govt it is wrong and to change or stand down for another group of MPs to take over the reigns if it can get the support of parliament.

    This is of course the norm in many cases in the world.
    But a position where a government could not fall is exactly what we had for an extended period in the 2017 parliament.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022

    ping said:

    Just had a few quid on @MoonRabbit ’s nags. Very long odds today!

    And a 50/1 Acca. For fun;

    1.30 Vauban
    2.10 State Man
    3.30 A Plus Tard

    Don’t waste your money backing my tips, btw. Unlike politics betting, I don’t have an edge in horse racing.

    Good luck all!

    Good start Ping! Is this your day.
    We’ll see…


    A decent enough run from Porticello. You tipped him when he was 18/1 and he went off at 9s, which in my book makes for a decent value bet.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Dowden says the Tories are going to launch their 2-year election campaign from May onwards and it will be more like 2015 than 2019 > sounds like a bid to entrench Boris Johnson as the candidate
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1504802235330539522

    Rees-Mogg says Ukraine war has shown that partygate scandal was just 'disproportionate fluff' - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/mar/18/uk-politics-live-tory-conservatives-spring-conference-boris-johnson-latest-updates?page=with:block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1#block-62347d4d8f08ee17b5371ef1

    Mogg is a fool.
    He is but here he's indulging in what is a bit of standard practice.

    When something MASSIVE happens you do a checklist of all the things others find important but you don't - eg climate change, trans rights, covid rules, integrity of Prime Ministers, whatever - and you say this new situation puts everything in perspective and shows that all those things are indeed not important and never were.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    I guess Nippy won’t be doing any of her “I’m not making comparisons but….”. remarks….

    New #COVID19 data shows infections increased across most of the UK, with record levels seen in Scotland.

    High levels of infection are driven by the rapid rise of the Omicron BA.2 variant ow.ly/bCpl50Imxfy


    https://twitter.com/ons/status/1504790323444264994?s=21

    So is the higher rate in Scotland because we still wear masks in public buildings, etc and still have regulations about social distancing etc or despite them? Is there any evidence that our remaining restrictions actually have any efficacy at all?

    I genuinely don't know the answer to this. Throughout the pandemic there was far too much emphasis on bosiness and telling people what to do and not nearly enough attention on what actually worked. And we still don't seem to know.
    Is it differential recording? Mr Johnson has basically given the nudge and wink to forget covid down south.
    Could be. Since we stopped requiring PCRs and contented ourselves with LFTs I suspect the % of results actually officially recorded has plumeted to useless levels. It is possible that the level is even more useless in England than Scotland where LFTs are still generally available.
    Mm. The curves seemed to be behaving proportionately in parallel and the R values have been changing a lot despite different totals. It's possible that the Rs are more accurate than the case numbers if a roughly constant percentage of the latter is not being reported. But there are so many variables, including as you say different timing of BA2 waves, that who knows?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,576
    TimT said:

    Random web stuff. I like this comparison from a site that compares different things (e.g. a pre-1970 Big Mac with a Big Mac today). But this comparison is remarkable:

    https://dvk6to1kg8ie0.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BbHf8JU-5f8876b1dfca1.jpg

    That's a great piccie. But I think (hope!) that the scales might be a teensy weensy bit different... ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    Every council and mayoral authority has fixed terms, as do the US President, Congress and House. There is no reason why we can't legislate for the terms to be fixed, and be done with.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    RobD said:

    .

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Elements of the British Right are simply obsessed with the FTPA because it had Dave and Nick's fingerprints on it. The fact that it takes power from parliament and gives it back to the executive - something they would normally claim to deplore - doesn't enter their collective imagination.
    No, they're obsessed with FTPA because it was a disaster. Allowing a parliamentary majority to keep a government in office whilst defeating everything it did and denying it an election couldn't possibly be allowed to stand.
    You and I have had this discussion before, and I respect your arguments on this, but I do disagree. True when we were in that position it was a shambles, but that was because it was new to MPs. However what it did give is power back to Parliament and engaged the population. All other Govt we have had have been elected dictatorships. Except for a few exceptions MPs have been powerless.

    I would not want a position where a Govt could not fall, but I am happy for Parliament to tell a Govt it is wrong and to change or stand down for another group of MPs to take over the reigns if it can get the support of parliament.

    This is of course the norm in many cases in the world.
    They haven't abolished votes of no confidence, so Parliament can still do that.
    Indeed so. The Commons can still change the government without an election. What they're losing the right to do is to prevent there being an election where one is clearly needed.

    Perhaps the executive is getting too much power back. But if it is, what is the middle ground? How do you allow a minority government that is being blocked in parliament to call an election to resolve it without allowing a majority PM to call an election at the time of his choosing?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Just had a few quid on @MoonRabbit ’s nags. Very long odds today!

    And a 50/1 Acca. For fun;

    1.30 Vauban
    2.10 State Man
    3.30 A Plus Tard

    Don’t waste your money backing my tips, btw. Unlike politics betting, I don’t have an edge in horse racing.

    Good luck all!

    Good start Ping! Is this your day.
    A decent enough run from Porticello. You tipped him when he was 18/1 and he went off at 9s, which in my book makes for a decent value bet.
    PB tipsters have State Man v Suprise Package v Tritonic up next 😊
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    TimT said:

    Applicant said:

    biggles said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1504789695330463764

    Jacob Rees Mogg reveals the fixed term parliaments act will finally be repealed next week...

    Just rejoice at that news....
    Seeing as fixed terms are the norm throughout much of the world including the UK in most, if not all other elections, what is so special in giving the incumbent the right as to when to call election?
    Does any other Westminster system parliament have a fixed term?
    That is a good question and a good point. Most I can think of that are very close in style to ours I don't think do (hence your point), but I assume that is because they are generally copies of our system, so I'm not sure that is particularly relevant. Lots of non Westminster style parliaments do (I would say most, but I don't know that, so not confident to say so)

    The USA obviously does.
    Is it mostly a question of culture and history though? I.e. Could Congress change it if it wanted to or is it in the Constitution?
    The appointment of the US head of government is in the Constitution. If Congress wanted to replace the current president with anyone other than the current vice president, I believe they would have to first choose the intended new president as Speaker of the House of Representatives, then impeach and convict both the president and the vice president so close together that a new VP couldn't be chosen.
    It just shows that you cannot devise a perfect system of checks and balances for all conceivable situations.
    I have to tell this to so many people who try and create super detailed rules for things which cover every single step and eventuality. You can end up causing major difficulty if there's no flexibility and the precise scenario was missed. I'm genuinely impressed the US constituon has held up so well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Scottish Parliament Voting Intention:

    Constituency:
    SNP: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (-1)

    Regional:
    SNP: 34% (nc)
    LAB: 22% (+2)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    GRN: 13% (-1)
    LDM: 8% (=)
    ALBA: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.

    Some Labour gains in Scotland

    This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift

    See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda

    As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow

    They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future

    Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
    Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-nicola-sturgeons-time-as-first-minister-may-be-coming-to-an-end-with-ukraine-and-cost-of-living-crises-affecting-support-for-leaving-uk-joyce-mcmillan-3616408

    "The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
    Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far

    The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
This discussion has been closed.