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Will the Shrewsbury MP retain his seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com
Will the Shrewsbury MP retain his seat at the next election? – politicalbetting.com
Daniel Kawczy?ski MP, 2017, defending RT from criticism by Boris Johnson and insisting – in a live from St Petersburg, Russia – that MPs of all colours should keep engaging with the RT as the integrity of their journalists is as important to them as to those of the BBC. https://t.co/0ap11EWEdQ pic.twitter.com/QvAzvBEjbJ
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ETA on reflection, not sure what the question is here. Are we asking about deselection by the CP or being booted out by dem voters?
"This is illiterate and immoral. When war is over Ukrainians will need to return home to rebuild their country.
"We should be supporting Ukrainian refugees in frontline states like Poland and Romania."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukraine-refugees-tory-mp-daniel-kawczynski-b2035966.html
Labour would probably be odds on in a by election though but I don't expect one to happen.
To win the seat , Labour would need to match their 2001 vote of 45% and win over middle class Tory voters directly in parts of the seat like Meole Village.
In conclusion I would expect him to hold on with a slashed majority but it is one of Labour's better prospects in the West Midlands if Labour were to get anywhere near a majority.
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/ukraine-war/2022/03/12/mp-daniel-kawczynski-what-i-meant-by-my-ukrainian-refugee-comments/
Non runners coming in all the time, but not as yet affected Malcs or my tips.
Here’s Malcs
My nags for today. Good luck to everybody
EW Patent
Suprise Package 14:10 Cheltenham
Galvin 15:30 Cheltenham
Bob And Co 16:10 Cheltenham
EW Single
Bob And Co 16:10 Cheltenham
Here’s mine
13:30 Porticello
14:10 Tritonic
14:50 Ballygrifincottage
15:30 A Plus Tard
And EW on Aye Right 15:30
Whatever you are on today, best of luck.
EC makes the new Shrewsbury seat a toss-up right now.
So not entirely impossible. But it would have to be a good Labour night.
When you're having to clarify your remarks you aren't winning.
However. His original comments represent a significant strand of thinking regarding refugees, not one represented widely in front line politics as far as Ukrainians are concerned.
For some, keeping folk out is THE most important thing.
Nominations welcome for areas with rum bunches of Labour MPs!
Yes to this:
At a time like this when the narrative is so much against Putin’s Russia it takes a very brave, or foolhardy, Westminster Tory MP to question the actions of his government.
However, the clip is from 2017, is it not? 5 years ago.
So the MP for Shrewsbury is not defending RT "at a time like this", and the implication does not stand up.
Unless I have missed something (?)
This is the mega clash between the possible Brexits. The Singapore-on-Thames Brexiteer will be delighted with what has happened, a flexible labour market providing a solution to keep the business afloat and the owners rich. The Workers Collectivist Brexiteer is aghast as instead of stopping the forrin taking our jobs for less pay our sovvrinty has instead been utterly complicit.
There is no way to reconcile two utterly conflicting goals for Brexit. We can't have both labour flexibility for more profits and British Jobs for British Workers. Expect more scandals.
It’s a perpetual debate: “what is Fascism”. There are no foundational texts which tell you “How to be a Fascist” (unlike Marxism, capitalism or Christianity)
So Fascism is more easily observed than described. And Putin is a Fascist
London
Lets hope he gets ousted. For him to remain an MP would be illiterate and immoral.
I have a tenner each way on Aye at 80-1. On my win bet A Plus Tard rides away from Malcs Galvin 🏆
Although there are plenty of others taking flak for their past support of RT.
So I don't see why he should get a pass.
Oh.
The iconic Tory win of Blyth Valley for example. Blyth and Ashington looks nailed on Labour. It is the Labour bit of BV and the Labour bit of Wansbeck. I reckon less clued up punters might suspect it isn't.
I note that I have a couple of hundred in my Nakes WIne account.
Can anyone make any current interesting recommendations?
Yes, some tanks will still perform a lot better than the T72s in Ukraine. But the trajectory of modern warfare is clear. Cheaper missiles and unmanned drones spell the end of tanks-driven-by-soldiers, as we know them
Drones by themselves are going to transform warfare completely. Why risk a human life (and spend all that money training a pilot who is not easily replaced if he dies) when you can send up
a much cheaper drone which can fly for 36 hours non-stop
In the future, AI, drones and robots will do all the fighting for us
MPs from most parties have appeared on RT more than once.
And a 50/1 Acca. For fun;
1.30 Vauban
2.10 State Man
3.30 A Plus Tard
Don’t waste your money backing my tips, btw. Unlike politics betting, I don’t have an edge in horse racing.
Good luck all!
But it seemed worth noting the slip in the header.
I think therefore that you are right.
The further they go from Ukraine and the better educated they are, the less likely they are to ever return.
I’m not saying this because I want to keep the Ukes out. 500,000 hard working young Ukrainians, permanently settled here, would be great for the UK
But a disaster for Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon
A great episode, in that trying to removal the 'actual' terror of War just makes it even more terrible.
@nexta_tv
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2h
#Russia's Foreign Minister #Lavrov threatens that all transporters that may bring weapons to #Ukraine will be declared military targets.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv
https://www.nakedwines.com/products/simpsons-of-barham-court-beora-2018
and interested to try this
https://www.nakedwines.com/products/simpsons-of-servian-blanc-de-blancs-2020
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
450 tanks
93 aircraft
112 helicopters
and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
So in order to protect that armour from drones people will develop anti-drone drones, or more lightweight anti-aircraft missiles suitable for taking out drones rather than jet aircraft, or various other measures.
If there are no tanks or armoured vehicles how do you move infantry around? And if you can't move infantry around then you can't occupy territory.
But sensitive area, because the right answer and the xenophobic one happen to coincide
Wayne Couzens charged with 4 more offences.
In a "No Shit, Sherlock" moment it turns out that men who indecently expose themselves are a risk to others.
Occupations are usually bad, sometimes catastrophic.
Far better to bully your enemy into willing submission, at a distance
This is what China does. It has risen to global pre-eminence, since the 80s, without invading or occupying any territory. Contrast with the calamitous, ruinous Russian and American occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq
China seized Hong Kong (admittedly a special case) without firing a shot. They just menaced it until it yielded. They will try the same with Taiwan
He’s burnt his bridges with Boris, for no gain. And his constituency will be bottom of the list, when the “levelling up” pork gets dished out.
A good MP is sober and calculating about his Constituents interests.
Now L Pidcock has no seat, and tragically has suggested she is finished as Labour MP material, we shall have to search around for the dottiest Labour MPs. The good news is she is still on Twitter, and still priceless.
if you hunt around you will find that she is dimly aware there is a war on in Europe and that NATO is entirely to blame.
Lavery and Burgon are still pulling their dotty weight.
Trouble is many soon discover they aren't making much headway with that attitude.
Have a nap
And therefore lazy. Going through the motions, parotting the Party line and collecting the salary in their usually safe seat. And finding "interesting" other sources of income.
It's human nature I'm afraid.
Drones are cheaper than jets.
Drones require less training than jet aircraft.
Consequently there will be more drones than jets, making them harder to defend against.
In WWII we saw that bombing alone was not sufficient to cause populations to surrender (with the exception of the nuclear bomb). This was repeated again and again. At some point you have to send the infantry in.
So it would seem that, just as an army would want to establish air superiority in order to protect itself from attack from the air, it will also need to establish drone superiority.
This will be harder, but not fundamentally different.
Oliver Alexander
@OAlexanderDK
·
8m
Another odd touch and go/go-around by a Rossiya Special Flight Squadron aircraft today. RSD77 flew from Moscow to Yekaterinburg and now it appears to Saint Petersburg.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504787274843762690
(But there is a real problem for the Conservatives here. Labour have moved on from Corbyn with remarkable speed. Bozza has done a much more effective job of remaking the Conservatives in his own ghastly image.)
Labour seems to have extended its lead back up to around 6 points.
It makes it so much easier for the voters to weed out poor MPs who would otherwise have safe seats.
Well worth reading in full.
We see it on here, too.
LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 33% (-)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 7% (-)
REF: 4% (-)
via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 08 Mar
If the Tories can't get ahead during a war, when can they?
The place not to be is Moldova, Georgia, Finland etc
If an MP travels on road of honesty and decency ignoring sign posts for narrow party or personal interest, there has to be a career for them in our politics, there has to be.
"Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it."
"...the United States and NATO must resist Russian provocations, which already include war crimes and atrocities, and which soon could become even more extreme with “false flag” operations that might bring chemical weapons into play."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/
LAB: 39% (+1)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)
via @techneUK, 16 - 17 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Mar