New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
In German political news, Oskar Lafontaine left die Linke yesterday and die Linke is in danger of falling below 5% in next Sunday's Landtagswahl in Saarland which would be a catastrophic result for the die Linke
I recognise the name Oskar Lafontaine, but not sure why, was he there party leader?
He was finance minister years back, I think in Schroder's coalition (I recall he was in the greens at the time).
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
I know right? And yet everyone still clutches their pearls, aghast.
Nah. He genuinely believes all this bollocks he writes. It is why he is now the laughing stock of Political Betting.
"Ah, I see, sorry. The House terms are set at 2 years by article 1 of the Constitution, and Senate terms at 6 years by the Seventeenth Amendment."
The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of senators. Previously they had been chosen by state legislatures. The 6 years is in Article 1, and was not changed by the amendment. (There was an initial establishment of three "classes" of senators, so only a third of them are up for election every two years.)
(A corrupt senator from Pennsylvania, Boies Penrose, was delighted by the change to direct elections, since he thought that the public would vote for him, in spite of his record, but the legislature wouldn't.)
The 17th Amendment has had far bigger consequences than is widely understood.
Up to that point, the senate, composed of people representing the interests of the individual state legislators, and would there for stop/veto, most efforts to centralise the nation, not absolutely everything, but most things unless there was a really compelling reason. and that decentralisation worked well in such a large both area and population place. Since then, there has been no such challenge, so every time an issue comes up, the ancer is always lets centralise, one set of rules, one federal agency to cover the whole nation.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It’s a desperately risky gamble
And a mercenary bought for a price by one buyer can be bought for a higher price by another ...
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
That is an appalling thing to say. Lots of people are dying in Ukraine. You treat other people's lives as if they are nothing. I wonder how brave you would be if you were in the frontline rather than sitting behind your computer.
Oh give over. Sometimes @HYUFD likes to wind people up. This is one such occasion
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
Ever since season bow at Haydock when A plus Tard was in parade ring and the others approaching last fence, this was always on my mind.
I'm not a racing man but on the occasions that I've bet on Cheltenham I've been lucky to get a single winner over the whole of the meeting, but you've aced it this week. I'm slightly up (following you) but missed your best winner unfortunately.
6 wins from 16 tips. 37%? I am happy to auction off my notebook on here but I only accept mixture of gold bullion bars and chocolate hobnobs as payment at the moment. 🙂
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
The trouble is that whilst that may bring an end to this episode it will encourage Putin into further adventures in places like Central Asia. I think that would be as bad, in its way, as the Versaille solution.
Yes. There may be no good options available, but any surrender of territory or foreign policy independence would in effect tell Putin this strategy works, he just needs to be better at it. In fairness it has worked until now.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There are voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
You are a disgrace to the conservative party - shame on you
Do you think that perhaps maybe @HYUFD is sometimes seeking to wind up posters on occasion? 😊
I know right? And yet everyone still clutches their pearls, aghast.
Sometimes he is sometimes isnt. But by the same logic he should not complain about a pile on, yet has, nor others whinge about him being bullied, and people do. No ones a saint in this absurdity.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
I panic WHILE DOING OTHER THINGS
It's a smear that men cannot multitask
I hope you don't panic while womanising. That would be a sight to see.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
It's yet another illustration of the big, long term schism between the Stalinist left and the liberal globalist environmentalist left. The former are simply authoritarian ideologues who in another life could easily have ended up being far right. The latter are essentially secular new testament Christians, who channel St Francis of Assisi rather than St Julian of Assange.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Since at your age you can only manage so many prolapses a year, I suspect that there’s a fair amount of vested interest in your reckoning. Be honest, does the phrase ‘perhaps the old union will see me out’ flit across your thoughts?
Yep. And I suspect the same occurs to you, but with a hint of despair and terror
I may soon be an old man but not one in a hurry, and I’m pretty copacetic about the inevitability of Indy, before or after divvie. Besides once the smoke clears you’ll be living in Oz being helped on and off the commode by your Scotch house boy Eabhal.
Ah I never got your 'highest point' clue, was that it?
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
I would add that, given the peculiar nature of Scottish politics, it is likely that SLAB need to be seen to attacking the CONs in order to assure left-wing voters who might come over from the SNP.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Which I think reinforces your point (ie chechens have primed Russians against moslem fighters rather than habituated them)
You can see how it might kick off. At some point, if Putin REALLY wants to win, troops will have to go into Ukrainian cities, and take them street by street. A bitter war at close quarters
Christian Russian soldiers will see Muslim Syrian soldiers, their supposed allies, slaughtering Christian Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The cognitive dissonance will be intense and explosive
I will come back to my earlier suggestion, the UK and other nations, should allow any of there serving solders to take a 'sabbatical', take of there Uniforms and hand back ID cards and so on, and go to Ukraine for 3 months or 6 months or whatever. How many would go? I don't know probably less than 1%, but that's still close to 1,000 maybe more if some came form TA and other services.
Would 1,000 or so additional well trained and motivated solgers it make a difference, yes, it may or may not change outcome on the battle field. but more likely it would show Russia/Putin that we the UK/West are serous about standing with Ukraine, and might make him keen to agree some form of peace, before they get out there.
IANAE, but surely C&C would be a nightmare with everyone speaking a different language? You can probably fit a couple of foreigners into a unit and manage. Several would lead to problems - I guess. You would have to form them up into a separate 'unit' that has its own objectives and structure. And if that gets caught, it starts to look awfully like a British unit...
I will come back to my earlier suggestion, the UK and other nations, should allow any of there serving solders to take a 'sabbatical', take of there Uniforms and hand back ID cards and so on, and go to Ukraine for 3 months or 6 months or whatever. How many would go? I don't know probably less than 1%, but that's still close to 1,000 maybe more if some came form TA and other services.
Would 1,000 or so additional well trained and motivated solgers it make a difference, yes, it may or may not change outcome on the battle field. but more likely it would show Russia/Putin that we the UK/West are serous about standing with Ukraine, and might make him keen to agree some form of peace, before they get out there.
It's a case of how much is enough? There is a glimpse that perhaps Ukraine can fight off Russia, but if the war continues with the same dynamic as at the moment then Russia would gradually grind out territory and ruin Ukraine in the process. Do we need full NATO involvement in any sense or can volunteer troops (numbers possibly capped so NATO obligations can be met), individual countries providing extra assistance and involvement outwith their NATO briefs turn the tide.
And, if you are looking at needing soldiers in large numbers, is there any milage in turning the largest supply of ready to hand soldiers, Russians, to your side? Not a tactic to employed without great delicacy and care, but if this war is as unpopular with as many of the Russian army as suspected, there are no doubt many turnable men right there.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
The trouble is that whilst that may bring an end to this episode it will encourage Putin into further adventures in places like Central Asia. I think that would be as bad, in its way, as the Versaille solution.
Again it is not what I think should happen, but what I think will happen. Ukrainians will have to do deal with what is best for them, not what is best for central Asia or even the West. The only relatively good outcomes are if Putin is no longer head of Russia, and that is well out of Ukrainian control.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Both seem rather too keen to cede people and territory to Russia.
The only thing I said was that it was reasonable to have a plebiscite in the Donbas (as suggested in Minsk 2).
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000 twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course.
I don't as a rule, but the winner and Galvin were side by side a third or so into the race and BF for a few seconds went 3.9 Galvin and 4.9 A Plus Tard for no apparent reason.
A Plus Tard did look blocked and rather than go wide waited for an opening. from there Would have been more than fifteen lengths if the line had come later.
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
*Small voice*I think Leon may have been one of the more steady and sensible posters since the war in Ukraine kicked off, a few nuke panics aside.
Both seem rather too keen to cede people and territory to Russia.
The only thing I said was that it was reasonable to have a plebiscite in the Donbas (as suggested in Minsk 2).
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000 twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
The hypothetical results of plebiscites before the Russian invasion may turn out to be very different from actual results afterwards in properly supervised votes. I imagine pro-Russian support in the disputed areas has dropped like stone.
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
I’m totally aware of the conflation. It needs to be unlocked, at least at the margins.
SLD *should* be (relatively) hard unionist; they need to be winning votes from Tory and Unionist leaners.
SLAB on the other hand need to think more creatively about their Indy position, to attract soft SNPers.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
I was mildly shocked to speak to a former Labour MP who told me without hesitation that he would vote SNP to defeat a Tory. As he claimed to be an adamant unionist I found this little short of bizarre but the dichotomy referred to does still exist to some extent. Personally, I blame Brown who encouraged hatred of the Tories in Scotland as a means of keeping SLAB top dog. Which, in fairness, worked very well until it didn't.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
I panic WHILE DOING OTHER THINGS
It's a smear that men cannot multitask
I hope you don't panic while womanising. That would be a sight to see.
I must admit I'm not good at multitasking.
No one is good at multi-tasking, not even the women who insist they are way better at it than men.
And that has to do with our brain structure and the limits of our working memory.
When we think we are multi-tasking, we are not. We are in fact constantly switching attention between tasks which, as any IT specialist will tell you, entails increased meta-work - i.e. the work we need to do before we can start working - work which can only (given the limited capacity of our working memory) come at the cost of actual work done.
The most efficient 'multi-tasking' is to do one task at a time.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
That is an appalling thing to say. Lots of people are dying in Ukraine. You treat other people's lives as if they are nothing. I wonder how brave you would be if you were in the frontline rather than sitting behind your computer.
Oh give over. Sometimes @HYUFD likes to wind people up. This is one such occasion
I don't think so. Look at the thread the other day. I don't think anyone would have bat a lid at that comment today if it were not for the other day, but just look at the reaction.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course. Surely the on-course punters have the market stitched up?
I actually find it impossible to do. The race moves faster and ahead of the prices. By the time you've processed it they've changed. Only way I do in-running for horses is to back pre race and leave an active unmatched lay at a shorter price (typically odds on). I often find this gets taken at a point when imo it's too short. Eg my horse loses and watching the race there never was a time it should have been odds on, yet I log on and get a pleasant surprise - my lay been taken and I haven't lost (or I've won even if it was for more than the stake). But doing it real time, no. I don't see how people do that. The great sports for in-running are cricket, golf and (especially) tennis.
Both seem rather too keen to cede people and territory to Russia.
The only thing I said was that it was reasonable to have a plebiscite in the Donbas (as suggested in Minsk 2).
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000 twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
The idea that any plebiscite post-2014 would be free and fair is ridiculous - just read the twitter thread below. It would have been a 110% vote to be part of Russia.
And then there would have been an insurgency in the next region, and the next, all fed by Putin and supported by his little helpers in the west.
Both seem rather too keen to cede people and territory to Russia.
The only thing I said was that it was reasonable to have a plebiscite in the Donbas (as suggested in Minsk 2).
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000 twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
The hypothetical results of plebiscites before the Russian invasion may turn out to be very different from actual results afterwards in properly supervised votes. I imagine pro-Russian support in the disputed areas has dropped like stone.
Quite how such a plebiscite would have been carried out during an ongoing war which has lasted pretty well as long as Minsk 2 has existed is another question.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course. Surely the on-course punters have the market stitched up?
I actually find it impossible to do. The race moves faster and ahead of the prices. By the time you've processed it they've changed. Only way I do in-running for horses is to back pre race and leave an active unmatched lay at a shorter price (typically odds on). I often find this gets taken at a point when imo it's too short. Eg my horse loses and watching the race there never was a time it should have been odds on, yet I log on and get a pleasant surprise - my lay been taken and I haven't lost (or I've won even if it was for more than the stake). But doing it real time, no. I don't see how people do that. The great sports for in-running are cricket, golf and (especially) tennis.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
I was mildly shocked to speak to a former Labour MP who told me without hesitation that he would vote SNP to defeat a Tory. As he claimed to be an adamant unionist I found this little short of bizarre but the dichotomy referred to does still exist to some extent. Personally, I blame Brown who encouraged hatred of the Tories in Scotland as a means of keeping SLAB top dog. Which, in fairness, worked very well until it didn't.
Blame Thatcher, not Brown. Brown appealed to existing enmities.
The fact you are shocked in your anecdote shows that a lot of politically active Scots don’t really seem to understand the key drivers of the vote up there. Unionists need to play a lot smarter.
I don't know certain people on the left find it so hard to be sensibly socially democratic, supportive of socialist principles whilst also opposing dictatorships like Russia. They always seem like they ought to support them even when there's no historical basis for this at all, especially within Labour which arguably was most opposed to the USSR when it was also the most left wing Government we've had.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course. Surely the on-course punters have the market stitched up?
I actually find it impossible to do. The race moves faster and ahead of the prices. By the time you've processed it they've changed. Only way I do in-running for horses is to back pre race and leave an active unmatched lay at a shorter price (typically odds on). I often find this gets taken at a point when imo it's too short. Eg my horse loses and watching the race there never was a time it should have been odds on, yet I log on and get a pleasant surprise - my lay been taken and I haven't lost (or I've won even if it was for more than the stake). But doing it real time, no. I don't see how people do that. The great sports for in-running are cricket, golf and (especially) tennis.
Betfairs in betting delay is such that I've never managed to get it working correctly for horse racing.
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
There is, I think, a genuine concern with far-right/neo nazi nationalist groups in Ukraine, particularly centred around the Azov Militia. It's no coincidence that they are strong in Mariupol.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It would be a terrible shame if Kadyrov's entire Chechen army ends up getting minced in this conflict
Letting a mob of shovel-bearded berzerkers loose is, even by Putin's standards, pretty desperate stuff.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
The life expectancy of Syrians and Chechens involved in this conflict is likely to be very low. If the rumours are true that the Chechens are being used as enforcers against reluctant Russians then they'll be targets for Russians and Ukrainians!
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
*Small voice*I think Leon may have been one of the more steady and sensible posters since the war in Ukraine kicked off, a few nuke panics aside.
I think #leon might take that as an insult. He has a reputation to maintain.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
An effective electoral alliance between SLAB and SCON could make a real difference to end the stagnation. I think the SCONS would go for it but SLAB never - their hatred of the Tories trumps their support for the Union.
A [edit] significant proportion of Slab voters are pro-indy or at least sympathetic. Means that an electoral alliance would be a repeat of 2014-2015 as far as Labour is concerned. Front for the Tories = end up as their penal battalions.
There appear to be only four possible flavours for governance in Scotland.
SNP alone SNP/Green Lab/LDem Con/LDem
The last is effectively not possible right now under Boris etc. Unionists only hope for deposing the SNP therefore is Lab/LDem.
You win a coconut. Or at least a Bounty. That last is precisely what the Scottish Parlaiment voting system was fiddled by Dewar and Wallace etc to set in concrete forever.
A system that should be reformed. I don’t want a bounty, but my simple point often seems lost on commentators and even activists in Scotland, as far as I can tell.
Lab/Lib co-operation unlocks several critical issues across the UK, including “devo-max” in Scotland.
I hope there are smart people working on this stuff, but somehow I doubt it.
Trouble is that the LDs are the 5th party at Holyrood these days. Not a lot of coconuts to add to the pile there. Very different from the days of Dewar and Wallace.
Every penny counts, as if were.
The LDs primary enemy is the Cons, they need to take Con share.
SLAB need to focus on the SNP and to some extent the Greens.
Hmm, Slab are so right wing they maybe need to focus on the LDs.
Trouble is that if Slab focus on the SNP and Greens they shed voters becayse those two are pro-indy parties.
No easy answer. Especially because it depends what HQ is saying in London.
I disagree (while fully acknowledging that I don’t live in Scotland).
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
Hmm, what I'd point out instantly is that the Tories have effectively caused the conflation of the two spectra - as does also, of course, the voting/age relationship. So they are not independent. The SNP strategy is fairly rational; the Tory one is too (but very dependent on old folk); Slab is split between the middle in two ways. And SLD is hard Unionist now anyway; so that's more competition for Slab.
I’m totally aware of the conflation. It needs to be unlocked, at least at the margins.
SLD *should* be (relatively) hard unionist; they need to be winning votes from Tory and Unionist leaners.
SLAB on the other hand need to think more creatively about their Indy position, to attract soft SNPers.
Quite. The trouble is that SLAB MPs, and MSPs who aspire to become MPs, will never vote for indy. They want those lovely perks and front benches and peerages. They've got a huge contradiction within their own party.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
*Small voice*I think Leon may have been one of the more steady and sensible posters since the war in Ukraine kicked off, a few nuke panics aside.
Talking of nukes, here's The Economist on the chances of them being dropped
Either depressingly possible or reassuringly unlikely, depending how you read it
I don't know certain people on the left find it so hard to be sensibly socially democratic, supportive of socialist principles whilst also opposing dictatorships like Russia. They always seem like they ought to support them even when there's no historical basis for this at all, especially within Labour which arguably was most opposed to the USSR when it was also the most left wing Government we've had.
They're certainly not the only ones who do it, but it is strange indeed.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It would be a terrible shame if Kadyrov's entire Chechen army ends up getting minced in this conflict
Letting a mob of shovel-bearded berzerkers loose is, even by Putin's standards, pretty desperate stuff.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
Without a more viable plan, without improved supply lines to support more men which will remain the full 'competence' of the Russians, this war could easily burn through Chechens and Syrians just as it has burnt through Russians.
Could have got 4.9 at one stage in-running (BF). I just missed it.
Well done.
I’m astonished people bet in-running, off course. Surely the on-course punters have the market stitched up?
I actually find it impossible to do. The race moves faster and ahead of the prices. By the time you've processed it they've changed. Only way I do in-running for horses is to back pre race and leave an active unmatched lay at a shorter price (typically odds on). I often find this gets taken at a point when imo it's too short. Eg my horse loses and watching the race there never was a time it should have been odds on, yet I log on and get a pleasant surprise - my lay been taken and I haven't lost (or I've won even if it was for more than the stake). But doing it real time, no. I don't see how people do that. The great sports for in-running are cricket, golf and (especially) tennis.
The people who win in play horse racing are generally using bots and getting live pictures from drones at the course.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
That doesn’t work for Ukraine. They give legitimise everything Putin did before 2022.
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
Both seem rather too keen to cede people and territory to Russia.
The only thing I said was that it was reasonable to have a plebiscite in the Donbas (as suggested in Minsk 2).
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000 twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
The idea that any plebiscite post-2014 would be free and fair is ridiculous - just read the twitter thread below. It would have been a 110% vote to be part of Russia.
And then there would have been an insurgency in the next region, and the next, all fed by Putin and supported by his little helpers in the west.
Any plebiscite would have to be for the whole Donbas region. Salami slicing off bits to hold a vote in them is farcical, and would proceed as you describe.
Excitement at pretendy Scottish Conservativ econference
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
As opposed to Salmond...
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Can you provide quotations?
I don't need to, and I did explain this to you the other day. He had a talk show on Putin's mouthpiece, RT. You seem to be in denial about this. He, and those like him in other parties, were (in as much as it is possible for someone as repulsive as Salmond) legitimising a propaganda machine.
Anyone who has ever seen a RT news program can tell it is propaganda for Putin's regime. Salmond, and the other useful idiots who appeared on it, must have known this. Salmond knew it more than most, particularly as he would have known that Putin is a strong supporter of Scottish separatism. Anyone who is an apologist for Salmond is an apologist for Putin.
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
The trouble is that whilst that may bring an end to this episode it will encourage Putin into further adventures in places like Central Asia. I think that would be as bad, in its way, as the Versaille solution.
I agree. Giving Putin something in return for a quick end to this intense period of the conflict guarantees that he, or his successor, will be back for more of the same another time, whether in Ukraine or elsewhere.
At this point it's Ukraine's decision, and they may decide that they will be better placed to fight again later, rather than continue fighting now.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
*Small voice*I think Leon may have been one of the more steady and sensible posters since the war in Ukraine kicked off, a few nuke panics aside.
Talking of nukes, here's The Economist on the chances of them being dropped
Either depressingly possible or reassuringly unlikely, depending how you read it
Given the subject matter, I tend towards the former
This lengthy and very Russian, almost literary interview with Dmitriy Muratov (editor of Novaya Gazeta) has many interesting moments, but one of the most chilling is how he describes Putin as playing with the nuclear button like a set of keys for a very expensive car, that he's jangling around to show how important he is. Powerful image.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
If you cut down a process that takes years *by* weeks, you don't speed it up much.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It would be a terrible shame if Kadyrov's entire Chechen army ends up getting minced in this conflict
Letting a mob of shovel-bearded berzerkers loose is, even by Putin's standards, pretty desperate stuff.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
Without a more viable plan, without improved supply lines to support more men which will remain the full 'competence' of the Russians, this war could easily burn through Chechens and Syrians just as it has burnt through Russians.
Russias big shortage is competent infantry willing to dismount and engage. Recruiting Chechens and Syrians is a sign of desperation. Not enough professional infantry is part of the reason their armour has been picked off.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
If you cut down a process that takes years *by* weeks, you don't speed it up much.
I'll eat someone's hat if they become a member while the war is ongoing. It's a very long way off.
BBC had a chat with rally attendees. Most seemed rather unenthusiastic fascists (another contrast with US political events ?).... https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1504838568514052098 🧵 This is the picture the Kremlin wants you to see: thousands of people who support President Putin and the "special military operation" in Ukraine, crammed into Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. We went there today and talked to dozens of people who attended... 🧵
Apoart from the points noted earlier, it's worth noting that most respondents don't favour incorporating anything beyond Crimea and the East, so if Putin decided to try to occupy all the way to Kyiv and even Lviv, he'd have a lot more domestic persuading to do, quite apart from the military challenge. In practice the negotiations are going to come down to (a) definitions of neutrality and security and (b) the future status of Crimea and the Donbas.
Maybe some sort of UN peacekeeping line as in Cyprus could make (b) negotiable (also thereby covering security), with final status kicked down the road for later resolution.
The shape of the ending peace deal seems pretty clear.
Ukraine gives up Crimea. Donbass/Luhansk have their status changed either through autonomy, devolution or referenda. Ukraine says it does not intend to join NATO but keeps open the right to join EU, or perhaps commits to not being a full member of the EU but not ruling out some form of closer links. Russia recognises Ukraine's right to exist and its right to have its own military. Sanctions start to be lifted, with reparations paid to Ukraine out of Russian assets frozen in the West.
Should be do-able quite quickly, think the war is over this time next month. It is a loss for Russia with them achieving virtually nothing they did not have before the (2022) invasion, but enough for Putin to claim a win back home given his control of state media and the false war objectives he told his home audience.
The trouble is that whilst that may bring an end to this episode it will encourage Putin into further adventures in places like Central Asia. I think that would be as bad, in its way, as the Versaille solution.
I agree. Giving Putin something in return for a quick end to this intense period of the conflict guarantees that he, or his successor, will be back for more of the same another time, whether in Ukraine or elsewhere.
At this point it's Ukraine's decision, and they may decide that they will be better placed to fight again later, rather than continue fighting now.
I don't think it gives Putin much of a win. I think it's open to the Ukrainians to accept.
I see the calm, non panicking Leon of yesterday was a one off. With all the womanising, drinking and travelling I don't know where you get the time to panic so.
*Small voice*I think Leon may have been one of the more steady and sensible posters since the war in Ukraine kicked off, a few nuke panics aside.
Talking of nukes, here's The Economist on the chances of them being dropped
Either depressingly possible or reassuringly unlikely, depending how you read it
Given the subject matter, I tend towards the former
This lengthy and very Russian, almost literary interview with Dmitriy Muratov (editor of Novaya Gazeta) has many interesting moments, but one of the most chilling is how he describes Putin as playing with the nuclear button like a set of keys for a very expensive car, that he's jangling around to show how important he is. Powerful image.
That's an elegant and, yes, chilling analogy
About 10% of me thinks that, at some point, Putin will inevitably push the button. He won't be able to resist the display of his power, especially if he is being otherwise humiliated.
Excitement at pretendy Scottish Conservativ econference
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
As opposed to Salmond...
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Can you provide quotations?
Additionally, as you have asked for "quotations" you probably can find plenty, but I think anyone who can say that they have "admiration" for a despotic psychopath like Putin can be accused of toadying as well as proving what many of us have known for a long time that he is a first class c*nt, just like the man he shows admiration of.
The NATO demand is relatively straightforward, but the disarmament one seems like it would be tricky to word, given I doubt it would be a reciprocal disarmament.
From BBC: Moscow and Kyiv are "halfway there" in agreeing on the issue of Ukraine's demilitarisation, and their views are most aligned on Ukraine's neutrality and giving up on joining Nato, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky says.
The Russian Interfax news agency quotes Medinsky as saying negotiating teams have been discussing security guarantees should Ukraine no longer attempt to join the Western military alliance.
President Vladimir Putin yesterday told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan what Russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine.
Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.
There are other demands in this category, which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side. Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
If you cut down a process that takes years *by* weeks, you don't speed it up much.
I'll eat someone's hat if they become a member while the war is ongoing. It's a very long way off.
Excitement at pretendy Scottish Conservativ econference
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
As opposed to Salmond...
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Can you provide quotations?
I don't need to, and I did explain this to you the other day. He had a talk show on Putin's mouthpiece, RT. You seem to be in denial about this. He, and those like him in other parties, were (in as much as it is possible for someone as repulsive as Salmond) legitimising a propaganda machine.
Anyone who has ever seen a RT news program can tell it is propaganda for Putin's regime. Salmond, and the other useful idiots who appeared on it, must have known this. Salmond knew it more than most, particularly as he would have known that Putin is a strong supporter of Scottish separatism. Anyone who is an apologist for Salmond is an apologist for Putin.
I never did see the AS show, or indeed RT, so have to bow to your superior expertise. But you are talking about news programmes. Yet I thought he fronted a UK produced chat show about UK politics? Unwise as that was, as was made very clear by the SNP, it's not exactly what you are saying, is it?
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It would be a terrible shame if Kadyrov's entire Chechen army ends up getting minced in this conflict
Letting a mob of shovel-bearded berzerkers loose is, even by Putin's standards, pretty desperate stuff.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
Without a more viable plan, without improved supply lines to support more men which will remain the full 'competence' of the Russians, this war could easily burn through Chechens and Syrians just as it has burnt through Russians.
Russias big shortage is competent infantry willing to dismount and engage. Recruiting Chechens and Syrians is a sign of desperation. Not enough professional infantry is part of the reason their armour has been picked off.
Perhaps just damned dangerous for the infantry to protect columns of tanks miles inside enemy territory. And the reason they're doing that is that they simply didn't have enough men in the first place to attack Ukraine, and thus weren't able to advance on sufficiently broad fronts. (I'm very far from an expert though, just my thoughts)
Makes a change from the Putin apologists of the right. We used to have one on here, who was an itinerant flint knapper.
With all due respect, doctor, fuck off
I have never been a "Putin apologist"
Is Putin right about Wokeness? Yes. Is he a fascist thug? Also yes
Hitler was good on cars and motorways; Stalin was a charismatic war leader; Fred West probably laid a fine patio. Life is full of paradoxes
You're trivializing it with those examples. Putin's reactionary views on social and cultural matters are integral to his politics and world view. It ought to give you - at the very very least - pause for thought that you share them.
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
There is, I think, a genuine concern with far-right/neo nazi nationalist groups in Ukraine, particularly centred around the Azov Militia. It's no coincidence that they are strong in Mariupol.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
In fact Zelensky's party is allied to our Liberal Democrats.
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Which I think reinforces your point (ie chechens have primed Russians against moslem fighters rather than habituated them)
You can see how it might kick off. At some point, if Putin REALLY wants to win, troops will have to go into Ukrainian cities, and take them street by street. A bitter war at close quarters
Christian Russian soldiers will see Muslim Syrian soldiers, their supposed allies, slaughtering Christian Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The cognitive dissonance will be intense and explosive
The Russians will be fighting at a distance, manning the artillery. One way to resolve the cognitive dissonance will be to choose not to see.
Lots of them are already doing this as they slaughter their cousins at a distance. I don't think having Syrians do the bloody urban fighting for them will be that much more difficult.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
Well, you could see a path here.
The Central and Eastern European nations would probably welcome it because it would increase the weight in the EU of “their” bloc. It would certainly make the EU more socially conservative leaning.
As for the Germans, you can see how any opposition on their part gets rolled over by a mixture of guilt as other nations (particularly the CEE nations) blame Germany’s attitude to Russia as being too lax and the Germans feel they need to recompose, and also the Germans thinking about the commercial opportunities from rebuilding the Ukraine.
I guess most of the other nations will fall into line given public sentiment will be on the Ukrainian side plus a latent recognition they would be a good bulwark against Russia.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
Could he quite a useful lab experiment for the EU. Up until now applicants have had to get their house in order or in line with EU requirements as outsiders off their own bats.
Ukraine could flip this on it’s head where they effectively become a “supplicant” and effectively handover the levers to the EU to pull themselves in order to bring Ukraine into line.
So there could be a dual track entry to the EU for potential members - you can sit outside until you sort everything or just hand yourself over to the EU institutions to do it for you and effectively become a “colony” (not really the correct word and not in a pejorative way). Maybe with voting rights frozen until everything in order.
That's...rather surprising news if true. There are rather a lot of criteria and steps, which Ukraine was not likely to fulfill many. And though not everything is subordinate to process, some of those steps and criteria are rather key. I'd have assumed some kind of advanced candidate status would be agreed.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
If you cut down a process that takes years *by* weeks, you don't speed it up much.
I'll eat someone's hat if they become a member while the war is ongoing. It's a very long way off.
I have three so I can spare one for eating.
You are the ghost of Paddy Ashdown and I claim my 5 bar charts!
Excitement at pretendy Scottish Conservativ econference
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
As opposed to Salmond...
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Can you provide quotations?
I don't need to, and I did explain this to you the other day. He had a talk show on Putin's mouthpiece, RT. You seem to be in denial about this. He, and those like him in other parties, were (in as much as it is possible for someone as repulsive as Salmond) legitimising a propaganda machine.
Anyone who has ever seen a RT news program can tell it is propaganda for Putin's regime. Salmond, and the other useful idiots who appeared on it, must have known this. Salmond knew it more than most, particularly as he would have known that Putin is a strong supporter of Scottish separatism. Anyone who is an apologist for Salmond is an apologist for Putin.
I never did see the AS show, or indeed RT, so have to bow to your superior expertise. But you are talking about news programmes. Yet I thought he fronted a UK produced chat show about UK politics? Unwise as that was, as was made very clear by the SNP, it's not exactly what you are saying, is it?
Does that make it any clearer? What is it with you? You are clearly intelligent. Why do you wish to defend Salmond? Is it a tribal thing? I used to be a Tory, but you won't find me defending the lying scoundrel that currently (and ostensibly) *leads* the Conservative Party. Salmond has been described by his own QC and his successor as a sex pest. He had a program on the propaganda mouthpiece of Putin and you still wish to defend him. What would he actually have to do, for you to say "well, in spite of him being a nationalist, I think he is a tosser"?
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
Which I think reinforces your point (ie chechens have primed Russians against moslem fighters rather than habituated them)
You can see how it might kick off. At some point, if Putin REALLY wants to win, troops will have to go into Ukrainian cities, and take them street by street. A bitter war at close quarters
Christian Russian soldiers will see Muslim Syrian soldiers, their supposed allies, slaughtering Christian Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The cognitive dissonance will be intense and explosive
The Russians will be fighting at a distance, manning the artillery. One way to resolve the cognitive dissonance will be to choose not to see.
Lots of them are already doing this as they slaughter their cousins at a distance. I don't think having Syrians do the bloody urban fighting for them will be that much more difficult.
The Syrians and Chechens are likely to get slaughtered which won’t bother the Russians but may cause issues amongst the fighters themselves. Knowing you are being sacrificed with no motivational cause (eg religion) isn’t good for morale.
Excitement at pretendy Scottish Conservativ econference
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
As opposed to Salmond...
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Can you provide quotations?
Additionally, as you have asked for "quotations" you probably can find plenty, but I think anyone who can say that they have "admiration" for a despotic psychopath like Putin can be accused of toadying as well as proving what many of us have known for a long time that he is a first class c*nt, just like the man he shows admiration of.
Up to you to do that, apart from a 2014 interview on checking, which seemed to be more about the various skills of world leaders. Though not reading any better for it.
Good news.... but note that China does not, and has never recognised Taiwan as a state.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1504852154749792262 According to Chinese medias Xi said that “state-to-state relations cannot go to the stage of military hostilities" and that "the Ukraine crisis is not something we want to see." Xi Jinping also told Biden that China and the U.S. should "work for world peace and tranquility" ...
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
There is, I think, a genuine concern with far-right/neo nazi nationalist groups in Ukraine, particularly centred around the Azov Militia. It's no coincidence that they are strong in Mariupol.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
In fact Zelensky's party is allied to our Liberal Democrats.
There will be plenty of large potholes to repair in Ukraine once the war's over
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
There is, I think, a genuine concern with far-right/neo nazi nationalist groups in Ukraine, particularly centred around the Azov Militia. It's no coincidence that they are strong in Mariupol.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
In fact Zelensky's party is allied to our Liberal Democrats.
And Putin's party "United Russia" is conservative.
Makes a change from the Putin apologists of the right. We used to have one on here, who was an itinerant flint knapper.
With all due respect, doctor, fuck off
I have never been a "Putin apologist"
Is Putin right about Wokeness? Yes. Is he a fascist thug? Also yes
Hitler was good on cars and motorways; Stalin was a charismatic war leader; Fred West probably laid a fine patio. Life is full of paradoxes
You're trivializing it with those examples. Putin's reactionary views on social and cultural matters are integral to his politics and world view. It ought to give you - at the very very least - pause for thought that you share them.
No, it doesn't, Putin is right on this one subject: perhaps it takes a cold-hearted enemy to appraise us correctly.
Putin is also a war-mongering maniac who needs to be taken out
What I am unlikely to do this Saturday is any betting or tip posting, not just because of this weeks feast but we are travelling down now to GFs parents this evening, to help them with some out door work - and go in pub and walks around the countryside 🪚🍻 🥾 Have a great weekend 🙋♀️
Report in Guardian LiveFeed about Assad's Syrians heading to Ukraine.
Just think about it, Putin is deploying Arab Moslem fighters against a fellow Orthodox Christian country.
Can there really be any peace-deal once they get stuck in?
(And what will the Russian Orthodox Patriarch have to say? I believe he's a Putin man.)
Extract from Guardian:
"After 11 years of war, the destruction of towns, cities and much of the Syrian military, Bashar al-Assad’s army has launched a recruitment drive. But the recruits are not fresh from bootcamps and will not fight on the home front.
"They are the vanguard of what could be the biggest state-backed mercenary force in the world. Within days, Syrian troops could be deployed to the stalled Russian frontlines in Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin is about to extract a lethal price for Moscow’s rescue of the Syrian leader.
"The first Syrian troops to join Putin’s ranks – an advance force of 150 – arrived in Russia on Thursday, European intelligence officials claim. Ukrainian military intelligence, echoing a claim by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believes 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight – a figure that would represent a sizeable chunk of the battle-ready capacity of the country’s entire military."
It also severely raises the chance of a Russian mutiny
Say you’re a young white Slavic Christian Russian conscript. Putin is asking you to risk your life and ally with 40,000 dark Muslim not-Russian speaking foreigners - to kill your white Christian Slavic Russian-speaking brothers and sisters in Ukraine
It would be a terrible shame if Kadyrov's entire Chechen army ends up getting minced in this conflict
Letting a mob of shovel-bearded berzerkers loose is, even by Putin's standards, pretty desperate stuff.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
Without a more viable plan, without improved supply lines to support more men which will remain the full 'competence' of the Russians, this war could easily burn through Chechens and Syrians just as it has burnt through Russians.
Russias big shortage is competent infantry willing to dismount and engage. Recruiting Chechens and Syrians is a sign of desperation. Not enough professional infantry is part of the reason their armour has been picked off.
A problem that will only get worse, especially as Ukraine’s mud season has yet to come and so troops need to travel on the roads where they are vulnerable to attack.
Via @SavantaComRes 10-16 March, Changes w/ 24-28 February.
Some Labour gains in Scotland
This endless Scottish stasis may be about to shift
See the indypoll on the last thread. NO is ahead by 5. Sturgeon is obvs not going to call - or even try to call - indyref2 next year. It’s off the agenda
As this becomes obvious unease in the SNP will increase. There is a fundamental split between the gradualists who are content, for now, with devolution, and the maximalists who want Indy tomorrow
They might split as the next referendum recedes into the distant future
Who gains? Possibly Scottish Labour, if they are canny (which they generally aren’t, it must be said)
Article by an Indy-supporting journo on why she thinks Nicola may stand down. I'm not so sure. The Yes vote is down a little, but hasn't tanked. Politicians who get to the top generally have to be dragged out of office. All the same...
"The First Minister is therefore caught for now in a painful double bind, unable to delay a referendum campaign for much longer without alienating ever-larger groups of independence supporters, and yet unable to campaign actively for independence without a high risk of alienating the very undecided and fearful voters she most needs to persuade; and all of Scottish politics seems caught with her."
Actually quite a sensible article. She says indyref2 is half a decade away, I reckon it’s a decade away, but it is coming - eventually. A vote in the early 2030s answers the generation question, it also gives the SNP time to solve the currency and EU puzzles, which they demonstrably haven’t done, so far
The Union will be tested again. Just not yet
Perhaps. Assumes the currency and EU problems are solvable, of course. Which they aren't. Nor are pensions, tax, etc either apparently.
Perhaps the SNP need a spell out of power at Holyrood and then can come charging back in. No sign of that either, though.
That is probably what they do need. Defeat. The whiff of stagnancy and corruption is strong in Holyrood. No party should reign forever.
A good scenario for the SNP would be a narrow election defeat, then 5 years of incompetent Coalition/Unionist government in Holyrood. Then the Nats could point and say See?! - with a vigorous new leader they would then win a big majority, and a new mandate for an indyref. By that time - 15 years after 2014 - they could also argue: a new generation is here, Scotland has the right to ask once again
I don’t believe Westminster could or should resist in that situation. = Indyref2
Yeah, maybe.
BUT that would need SNP to lose power in 2026, which they won't, as they'll be put back in by the Greens whose growth will compensate for any SNP decline. You need to understand the electoral system for Holyrood, and the List vote. The stagnation at Holyrood is just going to continue ad infinitum.
Of course. I was dreaming.
It’s actually quite shit for Scotland. Labour really fucked up with Devolution
Perhaps when Sturgeon goes the tectonics might change…
"Indyref2 delay due to Ukraine would 'hand Putin veto over democracy in Scotland' claim SNP"
That SNP MSP should thank herself lucky she got her independence referendum in 2014 and Boris unlike Putin did not send in the armed forces to bring her nation firmly back within the bosom of the mother country.
She can then wait a generation until she is allowed an indyref2
That is an appalling thing to say. Lots of people are dying in Ukraine. You treat other people's lives as if they are nothing. I wonder how brave you would be if you were in the frontline rather than sitting behind your computer.
Oh your doing your liberal thought police whinging again.
I did not say Boris should have invaded Scotland to bring it back into the bosom of the mother country as Putin has invaded Ukraine did I? In fact I said precisely the opposite.
Just this government should continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
You've got to be pretty twisted to see that as weaponising heritage rather than pointing out the absurdity of a key Putin delusion.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
There is, I think, a genuine concern with far-right/neo nazi nationalist groups in Ukraine, particularly centred around the Azov Militia. It's no coincidence that they are strong in Mariupol.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
In fact Zelensky's party is allied to our Liberal Democrats.
O/T. A question for that perhaps someone might be able to advise on. I wish to switch my antivirus software. I presume most of the reviews are really paid ads? However it seems bitdefender is good - any reason I shouldn't go with that?
Isn't it a bit more like any political event in America ever?
Yes, there are much weirder and creepier things in that rally than Putin’s entrance
The fact they are all wearing this sinister Z symbol is just one. Proto-fascism, again
Has anyone figured that out yet? I mean, not the adoption of a Fascist symbol to rally round. That's standard. But why specifically Z? It's not part of the Cyrillic alphabet.
World War Z
I think it's just one of a number of field recognition symbols used by the Russians that has been pressed into support as a symbol of support for the war. Using Latin letters makes sense, as Ukrainians use Cyrillic too.
Comments
New: Rapper Lowkey to appear at the NUS’s annual conference at end of month.
Also appearing at the conference is Labour MP Zarah Sultana. Earlier, Lowkey said MSM has “weaponised the Jewish heritage” of Zelenskyy to “stave off” inquiries about far right groups in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1504784109767438392?s=20&t=z3RbJYTQnr9WuzBpyqa0Kw
Up to that point, the senate, composed of people representing the interests of the individual state legislators, and would there for stop/veto, most efforts to centralise the nation, not absolutely everything, but most things unless there was a really compelling reason. and that decentralisation worked well in such a large both area and population place. Since then, there has been no such challenge, so every time an issue comes up, the ancer is always lets centralise, one set of rules, one federal agency to cover the whole nation.
It's a smear that men cannot multitask
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-fear-chechen-fighters-russian-soldiers-hate-them
Which I think reinforces your point (ie chechens have primed Russians against moslem fighters rather than habituated them)
There are essentially two fault-lines in Scottish politics. One is pro/anti indy. The other is straightforward left/right.
There are voters - maybe not many, but certainly some - who will be more motivated by left/right issues than indy.
SLAB’s job is to steal them away from SNP/Green with the right offer.
Easier said than done, of course, but at a macro level it’s the only strategy that makes sense.
I must admit I'm not good at multitasking.
Video of Chechen Rosgvardia troops firing on a building in Mariupol
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1504808697507295234?s=20&t=z3RbJYTQnr9WuzBpyqa0Kw
So Keir was right to do so on his recent trip.
Christian Russian soldiers will see Muslim Syrian soldiers, their supposed allies, slaughtering Christian Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The cognitive dissonance will be intense and explosive
And, if you are looking at needing soldiers in large numbers, is there any milage in turning the largest supply of ready to hand soldiers, Russians, to your side? Not a tactic to employed without great delicacy and care, but if this war is as unpopular with as many of the Russian army as suspected, there are no doubt many turnable men right there.
(Russia would win a plebiscite in the Crimea).
Of course, territory would only be ceded in the Donbas, if Russia had *won* the plebiscite. If @rcs1000
twitter link is right, then the failure to have a plebiscite was very foolish.
It could have provided Ukraine with a very strong argument.
I also said if there was no plebiscite, the Ukraine would lose more territory than if a plebiscite was held. We will have to see how it all turns out.
I expect I will turn out to be -- unfortunately -- all too right.
As for far right groups, read a piece on that on the BBC yesterday. I don't think anyone pretends there are no such groups active, but let's be honest, when an armed burglar is menacing you with a shotgun you might, in the moment, be less imminently concerned about the dodgy uncle with a blade trying to help fend him off.
SLD *should* be (relatively) hard unionist; they need to be winning votes from Tory and Unionist leaners.
SLAB on the other hand need to think more creatively about their Indy position, to attract soft SNPers.
And that has to do with our brain structure and the limits of our working memory.
When we think we are multi-tasking, we are not. We are in fact constantly switching attention between tasks which, as any IT specialist will tell you, entails increased meta-work - i.e. the work we need to do before we can start working - work which can only (given the limited capacity of our working memory) come at the cost of actual work done.
The most efficient 'multi-tasking' is to do one task at a time.
Still, like vaccine development you can safely speed up some processes by cutting out delays and doing things concurrently. And with application of flipping great wodges of cash.
From BBC
More now on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's latest address to the nation.
Zelensky says he's spoken to EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and he expects quick progress on Ukraine's application for fast-track EU membership.
Zelensky says von der Leyen "promised that she would do everything possible to speed up Ukraine joining the EU".
"We will become a fully fledged member of the EU," he says.
"Bureaucratic processes that normally take years will be speeded up and cut down by months and weeks."
Stephen Kerr’s teeth fell out during his speech. 😂
The Scottish* Conservatives…..
Toothless in Scotland since 1955….
And then there would have been an insurgency in the next region, and the next, all fed by Putin and supported by his little helpers in the west.
I really can't see how the Ukrainians can be expected to come to terms.
And then there's the rally. And the Syrians.
This could cause hatred lasting generations.
Brown appealed to existing enmities.
The fact you are shocked in your anecdote shows that a lot of politically active Scots don’t really seem to understand the key drivers of the vote up there. Unionists need to play a lot smarter.
But for several reasons, Putin's insistence that Ukraine needs de-nazifying has no justification. Mainly because it's absolutely nothing to do with Putin. But also because Zelensky neither looks nor sounds like a neo-nazi sympathiser - quite the opposite, in fact. So in the media war the idea that Zelensky has to be defeated because of neo-nazism just makes Putin look stupid. The fact that Zelensky has Jewish heritage is not really relevant, but I suppose it is the icing on the cake.
Either depressingly possible or reassuringly unlikely, depending how you read it
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/03/19/the-risk-of-escalation-past-the-nuclear-threshold
Given the subject matter, I tend towards the former
Toadying to Putin since November 2017 (and possibly before)
Anyone who has ever seen a RT news program can tell it is propaganda for Putin's regime. Salmond, and the other useful idiots who appeared on it, must have known this. Salmond knew it more than most, particularly as he would have known that Putin is a strong supporter of Scottish separatism. Anyone who is an apologist for Salmond is an apologist for Putin.
At this point it's Ukraine's decision, and they may decide that they will be better placed to fight again later, rather than continue fighting now.
I have never been a "Putin apologist"
Is Putin right about Wokeness? Yes. Is he a fascist thug? Also yes
Hitler was good on cars and motorways; Stalin was a charismatic war leader; Fred West probably laid a fine patio. Life is full of paradoxes
Most seemed rather unenthusiastic fascists (another contrast with US political events ?)....
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1504838568514052098
🧵 This is the picture the Kremlin wants you to see: thousands of people who support President Putin and the "special military operation" in Ukraine, crammed into Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. We went there today and talked to dozens of people who attended... 🧵
About 10% of me thinks that, at some point, Putin will inevitably push the button. He won't be able to resist the display of his power, especially if he is being otherwise humiliated.
I try to ignore this inner voice of pessimism
From BBC:
Moscow and Kyiv are "halfway there" in agreeing on the issue of Ukraine's demilitarisation, and their views are most aligned on Ukraine's neutrality and giving up on joining Nato, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky says.
The Russian Interfax news agency quotes Medinsky as saying negotiating teams have been discussing security guarantees should Ukraine no longer attempt to join the Western military alliance.
President Vladimir Putin yesterday told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan what Russia's precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine.
Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.
There are other demands in this category, which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side. Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine.
Lots of them are already doing this as they slaughter their cousins at a distance. I don't think having Syrians do the bloody urban fighting for them will be that much more difficult.
The Central and Eastern European nations would probably welcome it because it would increase the weight in the EU of “their” bloc. It would certainly make the EU more socially conservative leaning.
As for the Germans, you can see how any opposition on their part gets rolled over by a mixture of guilt as other nations (particularly the CEE nations) blame Germany’s attitude to Russia as being too lax and the Germans feel they need to recompose, and also the Germans thinking about the commercial opportunities from rebuilding the Ukraine.
I guess most of the other nations will fall into line given public sentiment will be on the Ukrainian side plus a latent recognition they would be a good bulwark against Russia.
Ukraine could flip this on it’s head where they effectively become a “supplicant” and effectively handover the levers to the EU to pull themselves in order to bring Ukraine into line.
So there could be a dual track entry to the EU for potential members - you can sit outside until you sort everything or just hand yourself over to the EU institutions to do it for you and effectively become a “colony” (not really the correct word and not in a pejorative way). Maybe with voting rights frozen until everything in order.
Quite obviously so, with his misogyny, homophobia and ethno-nationalism.
Does that make it any clearer? What is it with you? You are clearly intelligent. Why do you wish to defend Salmond? Is it a tribal thing? I used to be a Tory, but you won't find me defending the lying scoundrel that currently (and ostensibly) *leads* the Conservative Party. Salmond has been described by his own QC and his successor as a sex pest. He had a program on the propaganda mouthpiece of Putin and you still wish to defend him. What would he actually have to do, for you to say "well, in spite of him being a nationalist, I think he is a tosser"?
https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/alex-salmond-has-certain-admiration-putin-1538618.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1504852154749792262
According to Chinese medias Xi said that “state-to-state relations cannot go to the stage of military hostilities" and that "the Ukraine crisis is not something we want to see." Xi Jinping also told Biden that China and the U.S. should "work for world peace and tranquility" ...
Putin is also a war-mongering maniac who needs to be taken out
Meanwhile:
What I am unlikely to do this Saturday is any betting or tip posting, not just because of this weeks feast but we are travelling down now to GFs parents this evening, to help them with some out door work - and go in pub and walks around the countryside 🪚🍻 🥾
Have a great weekend 🙋♀️
I did not say Boris should have invaded Scotland to bring it back into the bosom of the mother country as Putin has invaded Ukraine did I? In fact I said precisely the opposite.
Just this government should continue to refuse indyref2 for a generation
A question for that perhaps someone might be able to advise on. I wish to switch my antivirus software. I presume most of the reviews are really paid ads? However it seems bitdefender is good - any reason I shouldn't go with that?