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Sunak and Truss drop sharply in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    Mr R,

    "Yes and every single one of them is either a minor country, semi-detached and/or committed to ultimately joining."

    The Danes and Swedes seem very happy with their own currency. They've no intention of joining.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    malcolmg said:

    Yet none are anywhere near as scummy as you Gammon Boy. Jog on loser.
    Articulate again, I see. And it took you all that time for your brain cell to come up with that. Must be a record of spontaneous wit for you. Haven't seen any posts from you bum licking Salmond recently? What do you think to having your idol being a paid TV apologist for the worst psychopathic dictator of the age? How does it feel for you, being an apologist for Putin by proxy? Do you still have unquestioning undying love for the man that is not only an RT presenter (bad enough) but also was described by his QC as a "bully and sex pest"?

    You see, Malcolm, that is a response that is, modesty aside, a little better than your playground "jog on loser", which of course, is a classic bit of dense psychological projection worthy of a thick-as-a-plank Scottish Nationalist.

    Hilarious really, you really as a glutton for punishment; you get a kicking every time, and each time you come back for more!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    I seem to remember some years ago, Apple force downloaded a very mediocre U2 song into everyone’s iTunes account.

    Could apple and google look at doing something similar now? Russian language news and video of what is really happening in Ukraine to every phone in the country? (Save the Huawei muppets).

    They’d need to get their staff out the country first obvs…

    And worry about China shutting down Foxconn

    The people with the iphones already have a pretty firm grasp on what's going on in any case. Problem is the ones who get news off the telly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205

    Mebbes, but the Holyrood parliament already has considerable powers. We could go full "home-rule" but presumably that would mean an end to Barnett and fiscal transfers northwards.

    My basic contention is that Scots are extremely unlikely to knowingly vote to make themselves poorer. This puts the Yes campaign in a difficult position. They can only win by knowingly misleading the population.

    BTW - a strange time for Blackford to double-down on chucking out Trident.

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1500739819525316611
    Otoh oil and gas have risen, so presumably can be marked up on the putative Scottish balance sheet. Not sure what Trident has to do with the price of fish.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is there some kind of exemption for people who can think about more than one thing at once?

    And what's with the asymmetry, "Brexiteers are not the enemy. EU-loving Europhiles are no the enemy." what about the much, much larger group of people who didn't think much of the EU but could see that leaving it was the self-destructive act of a bunch of utter wankers?
    Of course there's such an exemption, dear fellow. The problem is people who can only think of one thing at once, those who try to force every single event into their cause célèbre. They're like toddlers trying to put a round block into a square hole, hammering it and hammering it until they scream in frustration and throw the block through the TV.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Cookie said:

    I don't think that's right? The average Russian presumably has as many Roubles as he had two weeks ago. But his Roubles are worth only 60% of what they were back then.
    I remember Uncle Harold Wilson, on the TV, taking his pipe out of his mouth, looking straight at us and telling us that' the pound in your pocket has not been devalued'.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Not Ukraine? If they invade a country that isn't on their naughty list, what will they do to those that are? ;)
    You have to remember, of course, that Ukraine is not a real country, so it doesn't count.

    (In Putin's view, not mine, for avoidance of doubt)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    One of the Tory peers who has been under fire for links to Russian oligarchs has quit his job https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1500794651095322625
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    For all his explosions and foul-mouthed abuse on here, I would not be at all surprised to find that Malc is a very pleasant person in real life.
    OKC, I am indeed a gentleman but I cannot suffer ignorant no mark keyboard warriors thinking they know everything and pontificating on people. As you say I have cultured conversations with like minded people like yourself and treat the morons as they deserve to be treated.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Amusing poster.
    His wit and intellect is legendary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2022

    WRT the Ukraine war and the case for Scottish independence, people should not be so dismissive. Two glaringly obvious conclusions are already clear and obvious:

    1. Self-determination is sacrosanct. The heroic stand of the Ukrainian people and their government against being swallowed whole by the Russian empire is something we will celebrate long after this war is over.

    Its a difficult swing from "how marvellous that Ukrainian people still choose their own government" to "however Scotland votes it remains British" as pushed by HY and others

    2. Local oil and gas resources are precious. The 2014 pitch was built heavily on an oil and gas economy which later collapsed with the price of oil. We are about to see record prices and no sign of them collapsing later due to the complete remapping of supplies.

    On paper the SNP are dead against fossil fuels. Watch that abruptly reverse when they realise that as the west snuggles up to Iran and Venezuela to replace Russia they can also snuggle up to Scotland.

    So I don't see the slightly triumphantist "this knackers the SNP" position. It is the opposite. A clarion call for self-determination. A future where energy self-sufficiency and safe supplies are paramount. A huge hypocritical turnaround from today's position? Sure - but so what? The world is changing hugely and quickly...

    1. Rubbish.

    For starters Ukraine is an independent state already Russia has invaded unlike Scotland so when we refuse the SNP Scottish government demand for indyref2 it is just an internal matter.

    Much like Spain refused Catalonia's nationalist government even 1 independence referendum and has had no reaction from the international community for that.

    In fact if Russia's occupation of Ukraine is followed by Chinese occupation of Taiwan if anything that shows a trend away from independent states, especially ones trying to defy a larger and more powerful neighbour that has a government that believes they should be in union with them
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    France, OpinionWay/Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 30% (+2)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 18%
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 13%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-1)


    +/- vs. 1-4 March 2022

    Fieldwork: 4-7 March 2022
    Sample size: 1,672

    Reasonable poll for Le Pen, terrible for Zemmour.

    The French election looks almost like a foregone conclusion. Le Pen getting
    16-18% to get into the 2nd round then losing 60-40. Only way it gets interesting interesting is if Melenchon wins over Jadot and Rousell supporters.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    Sandpit said:



    The difficult bit is getting components required for keeping machinery serviceable in the face of the sanctions. Already we see Boeing and Airbus refusing to sell them spare parts for planes, so they will quickly have to start cannibalising them to keep others running. They probably can’t make cars on their own, because of all the electronics now required in them, and O&G exploration requires kit that’s not made locally and expertise they don’t have either.

    Mahan Air (the official airline of the Iranian Islamic Republican Guard Quds Force) kept flying right through the sanctions by getting black market parts through Indonesia, Hong Kong and Thailand. An expensive pain in the dick no doubt but possible.

    A massive and entirely coincidental expansion of Belavia's international network is another option.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402

    Russia has published its official list of countries that are "unfriendly":

    Australia, UK, EU countries, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, San Marino, Singapore, USA, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Japan

    The list of friendly countries is: Eritrea, North Korea, Syria and Belarus.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715

    Of course there's such an exemption, dear fellow. The problem is people who can only think of one thing at once, those who try to force every single event into their cause célèbre. They're like toddlers trying to put a round block into a square hole, hammering it and hammering it until they scream in frustration and throw the block through the TV.
    Wasn't there that famous video showing all the blocks fitting into the square hole.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Figures show Ireland has taken in 1,800 Ukrainians visa-free so far, compared to around 50 taken in by the UK

    For more and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    WRT the Ukraine war and the case for Scottish independence, people should not be so dismissive. Two glaringly obvious conclusions are already clear and obvious:

    1. Self-determination is sacrosanct. The heroic stand of the Ukrainian people and their government against being swallowed whole by the Russian empire is something we will celebrate long after this war is over.

    Its a difficult swing from "how marvellous that Ukrainian people still choose their own government" to "however Scotland votes it remains British" as pushed by HY and others

    2. Local oil and gas resources are precious. The 2014 pitch was built heavily on an oil and gas economy which later collapsed with the price of oil. We are about to see record prices and no sign of them collapsing later due to the complete remapping of supplies.

    On paper the SNP are dead against fossil fuels. Watch that abruptly reverse when they realise that as the west snuggles up to Iran and Venezuela to replace Russia they can also snuggle up to Scotland.

    So I don't see the slightly triumphantist "this knackers the SNP" position. It is the opposite. A clarion call for self-determination. A future where energy self-sufficiency and safe supplies are paramount. A huge hypocritical turnaround from today's position? Sure - but so what? The world is changing hugely and quickly...

    Just need rid of Sturgeon and her cronies and it is a slam dunk.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Give it a rest FFS, or please if you prefer. These private feuds are a tad wearing.
    Nope, he is an obnoxious bully, that thinks shouting abuse at people is a way of forcing his semi-fascist version of nationalism down everyone's throats. I will give it a rest when he moderates his posts. Until then I will continue to give him a verbal kicking at any opportunity.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    As Harold Putin said: this does not affect the rouble in your pocket.

    Roubles are spent in Russia. The devaluation will mean imports are more expensive but to what extent that impacts daily life is hard to assess, especially as a lot of imports will have been hit by sanctions.
    The financial sanctions are combined with the restriction on goods coming into the country, due to direct sanctions but also the refusal of suppliers and shippers etc… This can but only result in a form of hyperinflation for those goods. Since the import of capital goods is also hit, there will be a further escalation in inflation to Russian produced goods as the months go on.

    In terms of Russia’s inflation basket, about 36% is food, quite high, which given their calorific surplus is a positive for them. There’s a but…

    The central bank doesn’t release data on the share of imported goods for the CPI. But they estimate that almost half of the retail trade overall are imports. Life is going to get very difficult very soon in Russia, which will make our own escalating energy and transport prices pale into insignificance.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715
    TOPPING said:

    Wasn't there that famous video showing all the blocks fitting into the square hole.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz8ssH7LiB0
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    malcolmg said:

    OKC, I am indeed a gentleman but I cannot suffer ignorant no mark keyboard warriors thinking they know everything and pontificating on people. As you say I have cultured conversations with like minded people like yourself and treat the morons as they deserve to be treated.
    But you don't do that last bit.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Mebbes, but the Holyrood parliament already has considerable powers. We could go full "home-rule" but presumably that would mean an end to Barnett and fiscal transfers northwards.

    My basic contention is that Scots are extremely unlikely to knowingly vote to make themselves poorer. This puts the Yes campaign in a difficult position. They can only win by knowingly misleading the population.

    BTW - a strange time for Blackford to double-down on chucking out Trident.

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1500739819525316611
    You forgot to mention that it would put an end to all our money heading to the Laundry down south. Hard to see us being poorer.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Cookie said:

    I don't think that's right? The average Russian presumably has as many Roubles as he had two weeks ago. But his Roubles are worth only 60% of what they were back then.
    If you worked for a business or taxpayer funded organisation that depended in some way on foreign inputs you likely have fewer rubles (as well as them being worth less)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mahan Air (the official airline of the Iranian Islamic Republican Guard Quds Force) kept flying right through the sanctions by getting black market parts through Indonesia, Hong Kong and Thailand. An expensive pain in the dick no doubt but possible.

    A massive and entirely coincidental expansion of Belavia's international network is another option.
    Surely in that latter case, Belavia would find itself sanctioned?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Mebbes, but the Holyrood parliament already has considerable powers. We could go full "home-rule" but presumably that would mean an end to Barnett and fiscal transfers northwards.

    My basic contention is that Scots are extremely unlikely to knowingly vote to make themselves poorer. This puts the Yes campaign in a difficult position. They can only win by knowingly misleading the population.

    BTW - a strange time for Blackford to double-down on chucking out Trident.

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1500739819525316611
    He knows public opinion in Scotland , seemingly you don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    France, OpinionWay/Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 30% (+2)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 18%
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 13%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-1)


    +/- vs. 1-4 March 2022

    Fieldwork: 4-7 March 2022
    Sample size: 1,672

    Reasonable poll for Le Pen, terrible for Zemmour.

    The French election looks almost like a foregone conclusion. Le Pen getting
    16-18% to get into the 2nd round then losing 60-40. Only way it gets interesting interesting is if Melenchon wins over Jadot and Rousell supporters.

    Latest runoff poll is actually Macron 56.5% Le Pen 43.5%. Yes that is a clear Macron win but still much closer than the 66% to 34% he beat Le Pen by in 2017
    https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ROL22_2022.03.04.pdf.

    Do not forget too there are legislative elections in June Les Republicains have a chance of winning even if Macron is re elected
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Scott_xP said:

    Figures show Ireland has taken in 1,800 Ukrainians visa-free so far, compared to around 50 taken in by the UK

    For more and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33

    We really need to up our game here. It is a terrible look.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Taz said:

    We really need to up our game here. It is a terrible look.
    Esp with our gvt dishonestly claiming distance is the reason for our paltry number
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    Nope, he is an obnoxious bully, that thinks shouting abuse at people is a way of forcing his semi-fascist version of nationalism down everyone's throats. I will give it a rest when he moderates his posts. Until then I will continue to give him a verbal kicking at any opportunity.
    The abuse comes from both sides. But yours is more long-winded and less amusing.
    You could just ignore him?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Selebian said:

    You have to remember, of course, that Ukraine is not a real country, so it doesn't count.

    (In Putin's view, not mine, for avoidance of doubt)
    And they haven't invaded the imaginary country, Ukraine, either.

    Just an Imaginary Special Operation In An Imaginary Country. Everything else, is just in your Western Mind.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    malcolmg said:

    Just need rid of Sturgeon and her cronies and it is a slam dunk.
    Slam dunk? Disappointing to see the Americanisation of the case for Scottish independence.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    IshmaelZ said:

    Lots of its reserves are inaccessible to it because blocked
    And the lock up of stuff through the London markets is quite incredible. Various ingenious schemes are being presented to try and get round the sanctions - even Trafigura can't find buyers for Russian shit, third hand.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    HYUFD said:

    1. Rubbish.

    For starters Ukraine is an independent state already Russia has invaded unlike Scotland so when we refuse the SNP Scottish government demand for indyref2 it is just an internal matter.

    Much like Spain refused Catalonia's nationalist government even 1 independence referendum and has had no reaction from the international community for that.

    In fact if Russia's occupation of Ukraine is followed by Chinese occupation of Taiwan if anything that shows a trend away from independent states, especially ones trying to defy a larger and more powerful neighbour that has a government that believes they should be in union with them
    What is sacrosanct about the current arrangement of nation-states? Ever since we as a species developed beyond the concept of the time as a point of loyalty the state has been a fairly nebulous concept shifting and changing over time, sometimes as a result of military action.... revolution or conquest, sometimes peacefully.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Taz said:

    We really need to up our game here. It is a terrible look.
    You could remove 'a' and 'look' from your last sentence, unless it's just the optics that count.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Give it a rest FFS, or please if you prefer. These private feuds are a tad wearing.
    The putrid gammon is a pain in the butt. Stalkers on blogs should be under the same rules as the scumbag ones in real life. You are not half as bored as I am with the cretin.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IanB2 said:

    Esp with our gvt dishonestly claiming distance is the reason for our paltry number
    Compared with Poland, it is.

    I'm sure France, Germany and Poland would love for us to say "we'll let in without question anyone who turns up at Calais claiming to be Ukrainian". But if we're not going to do that, the Home Office is bound to err on the side of too many rules.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    The financial sanctions are combined with the restriction on goods coming into the country, due to direct sanctions but also the refusal of suppliers and shippers etc… This can but only result in a form of hyperinflation for those goods. Since the import of capital goods is also hit, there will be a further escalation in inflation to Russian produced goods as the months go on.

    In terms of Russia’s inflation basket, about 36% is food, quite high, which given their calorific surplus is a positive for them. There’s a but…

    The central bank doesn’t release data on the share of imported goods for the CPI. But they estimate that almost half of the retail trade overall are imports. Life is going to get very difficult very soon in Russia, which will make our own escalating energy and transport prices pale into insignificance.
    The trouble is this: we are all pussyfooting around no fly zones (rightly) because we think they might tip Vlad into going nuclear. so let's let sanctions do the work instead. But hyperinflation and breakdown of order, both induced by us, are just as likely to tip him over, as taking out a fighter jet or two of his. Why wouldn't they? There isn't a definitive list of permissible casus belli atomici, with economics not on it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Slam dunk? Disappointing to see the Americanisation of the case for Scottish independence.
    The Glasgow Rocks would be disappointed to see it described that way...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    HYUFD said:

    Latest runoff poll is actually Macron 56.5% Le Pen 43.5%. Yes that is a clear Macron win but still much closer than the 66% to 34% he beat Le Pen by in 2017
    https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ROL22_2022.03.04.pdf.

    Do not forget too there are legislative elections in June Les Republicains have a chance of winning even if Macron is re elected
    I'm interested in your view as to why Pécresse has turned out to be such a disaster. When she emerged as a serious contender, I really thought she had a good chance of defeating Macron from the non-extreme right. Why has she gone backwards?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    @ragipsoylu
    Kremlin told Ukraine that it can halt operations at any moment if Kyiv meets Russia’s conditions.

    • Demilitarisation
    • Constitutional amendment to reject joining any blocs — Reuters


    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1500800920854147077
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    @malcolmg Are you a rabbi ?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    Does anyone have the foggiest idea what Putin wants now? Does Putin know himself?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    @ragipsoylu
    Kremlin told Ukraine that it can halt operations at any moment if Kyiv meets Russia’s conditions.

    • Demilitarisation
    • Constitutional amendment to reject joining any blocs — Reuters


    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1500800920854147077

    Saying that you’ll stop fighting if the other side disbands its military and hoists your flag on all public buildings, doesn’t really count as much of a negotiation.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,326
    Applicant said:

    Surely in that latter case, Belavia would find itself sanctioned?
    They should be sanctioned just for the fact that every one of their aircraft reek of garlic, "Minsk Nights" perfume and burning electrical insulation.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Applicant said:

    But you don't do that last bit.
    I merely reply in kind , if the poster is cultered/decent I will reply pleasantly at worst , if bollox I will say so and for the few morons I will treat them as they deserve. I do try to have some fun at the same timeit is after all only the internet. You will note I am never anything but civil to those that are real gentlemen.
    Others are just fun, ie Carlotta and I have strong banter back and forth and all taken as it should be on both sides.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    @ragipsoylu
    Kremlin told Ukraine that it can halt operations at any moment if Kyiv meets Russia’s conditions.

    • Demilitarisation
    • Constitutional amendment to reject joining any blocs — Reuters


    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1500800920854147077

    For some reason, whenever Putin talks about constitutional amendments I think about Article 125 of the 1936 USSR Constitution...

    In conformity with the interests of the working people, and in order to strengthen the socialist system, the citizens of the U.S.S.R. are guaranteed by law:

    a) freedom of speech;

    b) freedom of the press;

    c) freedom of assembly, including the holding of mass meetings;

    d) freedom of street processions and demonstrations; These civil rights are ensured by placing at the disposal of the working people and their organizations printing presses, stocks of paper, public buildings, the streets, communications facilities and other material requisites for the exercise of these rights.



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    IshmaelZ said:

    The trouble is this: we are all pussyfooting around no fly zones (rightly) because we think they might tip Vlad into going nuclear. so let's let sanctions do the work instead. But hyperinflation and breakdown of order, both induced by us, are just as likely to tip him over, as taking out a fighter jet or two of his. Why wouldn't they? There isn't a definitive list of permissible casus belli atomici, with economics not on it.
    Thats's the fun bit in all this.

    We want Putin to lose.

    If Putin loses, he is mortal peril for his life. 95% probability that he "Is only President... for life".

    So if he sees that he is losing, *any* gamble may seem a good one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    I'm interested in your view as to why Pécresse has turned out to be such a disaster. When she emerged as a serious contender, I really thought she had a good chance of defeating Macron from the non-extreme right. Why has she gone backwards?
    She was never going to beat Macron from the centre I think, Macron had that vote locked up.

    Her only chance was uniting the right behind her and hoping much of the left, especially the Melenchon vote, did not bother to turn out for Macron in the runoff.

    Instead the right has largely gone back to Le Pen and she has lost some centrist voters to Macron, so will probably end up doing even worse than Fillon did in 2017
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Slam dunk? Disappointing to see the Americanisation of the case for Scottish independence.
    Apologies for that , I have given myself a hundred lines for that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Applicant said:

    Compared with Poland, it is.

    I'm sure France, Germany and Poland would love for us to say "we'll let in without question anyone who turns up at Calais claiming to be Ukrainian". But if we're not going to do that, the Home Office is bound to err on the side of too many rules.
    And it's not like Poland has let everyone in claiming to be Ukrainian...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Demilitarise so that we can overtake you without losing half our army and airforce in the next six months.
    I really wish they would provide a list of what they want to forbid Ukraine to have.

    Bloody useful shopping list for Ukraine, that would be....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    kjh said:

    Does anyone have the foggiest idea what Putin wants now? Does Putin know himself?

    1. Not to die as a result of his stupid, stupid invasion

    2. Russia to be the greatest country, evs

    He'll negotiate on 2.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Applicant said:

    For some reason, whenever Putin talks about constitutional amendments I think about Article 125 of the 1936 USSR Constitution...

    In conformity with the interests of the working people, and in order to strengthen the socialist system, the citizens of the U.S.S.R. are guaranteed by law:

    a) freedom of speech;

    b) freedom of the press;

    c) freedom of assembly, including the holding of mass meetings;

    d) freedom of street processions and demonstrations; These civil rights are ensured by placing at the disposal of the working people and their organizations printing presses, stocks of paper, public buildings, the streets, communications facilities and other material requisites for the exercise of these rights.



    I remember certain MPs claiming, doing the Cold War, that the USSR had better human rights than the West and quoting the above as evidence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2022

    What is sacrosanct about the current arrangement of nation-states? Ever since we as a species developed beyond the concept of the time as a point of loyalty the state has been a fairly nebulous concept shifting and changing over time, sometimes as a result of military action.... revolution or conquest, sometimes peacefully.
    Well that is true, a large nation with a strong military and army and navy could invade its smaller neighbours and build empires comprising less powerful nations abroad through much of world history.

    Just now it has generally been seen as unacceptable to do that and that independent states' sovereignty should be respected. Putin has just ripped up that consensus to try and rebuild a Russian empire
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Pulpstar said:

    @malcolmg Are you a rabbi ?

    LOL, I am more likely to be Pope, they would have had me out the door at the start of the apprenticeship.
    I am Church of Scotland (lapsed ) which would present issues I believe.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Thats's the fun bit in all this.

    We want Putin to lose.

    If Putin loses, he is mortal peril for his life. 95% probability that he "Is only President... for life".

    So if he sees that he is losing, *any* gamble may seem a good one.
    Indeed. Only winning move is not to play. But that means walking away from Ukr and we can't do that. The nuclear paradox.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Demilitarise so that we can overtake you without losing half our army and airforce in the next six months.
    Oh, and can we have our tanks back?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    tlg86 said:

    And it's not like Poland has let everyone in claiming to be Ukrainian...
    They have (presumably) let in everyone who turned up at the border, claiming to be Ukrainian or not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Sandpit said:

    Saying that you’ll stop fighting if the other side disbands its military and hoists your flag on all public buildings, doesn’t really count as much of a negotiation.
    Well, it worked for US, Uk, France, Canada etc during Big Mistake II.

    Mind you it worked for the Soviet Union as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, I am more likely to be Pope, they would have had me out the door at the start of the apprenticeship.
    I am Church of Scotland (lapsed ) which would present issues I believe.
    Only asked because you seem to be waging a war on foreskin.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Taz said:

    We really need to up our game here. It is a terrible look.
    The govt is doing exactly what it was elected for - keeping foreigners out. It appears to be almost like Holy Writ to Ms Patel...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Sandpit said:

    Saying that you’ll stop fighting if the other side disbands its military and hoists your flag on all public buildings, doesn’t really count as much of a negotiation.
    Ukraine wouldn't be allowed a military, nor a military alliance? What sort of "compromise" is that? You might as well set a timer for the Second Russian-Ukraine war.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    It appears that the Ukrainians may have sunk one of the Black Sea Fleet using a captured Grad rocket launcher.

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1500797084726964231
  • IshmaelZ said:

    The trouble is this: we are all pussyfooting around no fly zones (rightly) because we think they might tip Vlad into going nuclear. so let's let sanctions do the work instead. But hyperinflation and breakdown of order, both induced by us, are just as likely to tip him over, as taking out a fighter jet or two of his. Why wouldn't they? There isn't a definitive list of permissible casus belli atomici, with economics not on it.
    That's a perfectly well reasoned argument, Ishmael. I think the hope is that if sanctions do their work the regime itself may crumble before he can order nuclear destruction.

    That may not work either but it's worth a try.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    It appears that the Ukrainians may have sunk one of the Black Sea Fleet using a captured Grad rocket launcher.

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1500797084726964231

    That's just adding insult to injury.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    I'm interested in your view as to why Pécresse has turned out to be such a disaster. When she emerged as a serious contender, I really thought she had a good chance of defeating Macron from the non-extreme right. Why has she gone backwards?
    It's interesting that Macron is a fairly unpopular President, whose party has no real roots in the country, and yet who wins because his rivals to right and left excite strong opposition.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233

    Ukraine wouldn't be allowed a military, nor a military alliance? What sort of "compromise" is that? You might as well set a timer for the Second Russian-Ukraine war.
    During WWI, the German Military had a provisional set of demands for when they won. These were based on ensuring that they had a good starting position for the next war.

    The famous remark about Versailles being a pause for 20 years was actually based on the idea that the peace wasn't *harsh enough* - that in 20 years, Germany would have paid off reparations and would be ready for round 2.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    kjh said:

    Does anyone have the foggiest idea what Putin wants now? Does Putin know himself?

    Zelenskyy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,233
    Cookie said:

    That's just adding insult to injury.
    All Hail The Grad....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Only asked because you seem to be waging a war on foreskin.
    Circumcision, as it’s usually known.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    HYUFD said:

    Well that is true, a large nation with a strong military and army and navy could invade its smaller neighbours and build empires comprising less powerful nations abroad through much of world history.

    Just now it has generally been seen as unacceptable to do that and that independent states' sovereignty should be respected. Putin has just ripped up that consensus to try and rebuild a Russian empire
    Not entirely true, I'm afraid. Look, as one example, at Switzerland. Or, for another, at the USA, which threw off it's colonial masters. Or Ireland.
    On the other had, there are the 'nations' which were created, or re-created, after WWI, few of which still exist
    And in Africa colonial boundaries are, so far, respected, whereas in the Middle East and perhaps the Caucasus such boundaries have contributed to chaos.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It appears that the Ukrainians may have sunk one of the Black Sea Fleet using a captured Grad rocket launcher.

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1500797084726964231

    Well done them! How much more abandoned kit will end up used against the enemy?

    Telegraph has an interview with fierce-looking major of Odessa - they seem to be well up for the fight when the Russian Navy arrives.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/06/gennadiy-leonidovich-trukhanov-odesa-ukraine-invasion-russia/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IshmaelZ said:

    Too close to London Bridge now anyway, coinciding with that would catch a fatal upswell of affection for HM, a known unionist. Gotta hit the sweet spot between her and the unaccountably popular Baldy n Death's head, with a pair of fat self-sastisfied elderly billionaires in the hot seat.
    Shhhh…..

    The ‘Muscular Unionists’ are having their hard-earned snoozes.
  • malcolmg said:

    Just need rid of Sturgeon and her cronies and it is a slam dunk.
    Scotland really badly needs politicians worth the time of day. As a new Scot I don't think the Holyrood government does a bad job, but it does have some fantastically bad policies. And keeps tacking "and independence" onto everything to make it even sillier.

    The problem is that the non-SNP parties are not offering an alternative. Alba - whats the cyrillic version in honour of Salmond? - made zero progress last May. Tories having an existential crisis trying to wholly separate themselves from the London Tories. Labour trying yet another leader who isn't cutting through. LibDems the same. Greens forcing stupid oil ban policies....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Following on from earlier efforts to estimate real damage done to Russia’s Air Force… what proportion of the headline number would be needed in reserve to police and protect the vast homeland airspace and border, and would not be deployable in an expansionist war or choice such as this?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Interestingly Ukraine seems to have recaptured Mykolayiv airport - Russia must be questioning what they’ve let themselves in for
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    moonshine said:

    Following on from earlier efforts to estimate real damage done to Russia’s Air Force… what proportion of the headline number would be needed in reserve to police and protect the vast homeland airspace and border, and would not be deployable in an expansionist war or choice such as this?

    Border dispute with Mongolia perhaps?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,509

    Last Monday, Labour was 3% ahead of the Conservatives in our Westminster Voting Intention Poll.

    Today, and every Monday, at 5pm, we will release our latest poll.

    Will that lead have increased or decreased?

    Follow us
    @RedfieldWilton
    to be the first to find out.


    Implies Labour is still ahead even if only by 1-3%.

    I'm guessing we might still see one or two Tory leads between now and May, most likely with opinium.

    On those numbers, stunningly good for midterm after a medium-sized scandal in any case, the piglet is still greased.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Patrick Reevell
    @Reevellp
    ·
    16m
    Ukraine sending a delegation for a third round of ceasefire talks with Russia today. Talks due to start in Belarus at 16.00 local.

    https://twitter.com/Reevellp
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205

    Border dispute with Mongolia perhaps?
    Russia is a big place. Yes, it depends how far Putin trusts China and the extent to which he believes his own propaganda about Nato being poised to invade any minute.
  • Sandpit said:

    Circumcision, as it’s usually known.
    Circumspect. Surgical glasses
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent·16m⚡️ Ukrainian, Russian foreign ministers to meet in Turkey on March 10.

    Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have agreed to meet in Turkey’s coastal Antalya province, according to their Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    Gas (April delivery)

    Currently £6.80/therm (~23.2p/kWh)

    Went as high as £8/therm, earlier (~27.3p/kWh)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2022

    Not entirely true, I'm afraid. Look, as one example, at Switzerland. Or, for another, at the USA, which threw off it's colonial masters. Or Ireland.
    On the other had, there are the 'nations' which were created, or re-created, after WWI, few of which still exist
    And in Africa colonial boundaries are, so far, respected, whereas in the Middle East and perhaps the Caucasus such boundaries have contributed to chaos.
    Switzerland has largely avoided invasion by being a tax haven and neutral in virtually every war.

    The USA threw off its colonial masters after a war with Britain and has only ensured its security now by being a military and economic superpower.

    If Britain had a Putin like leader who knows what they would do? Militarily they could probably invade the Republic of Ireland and reunite it with the UK even if that would leave them as internationally isolated and condemned as Putin is now after his invasion of Ukraine and facing a long guerrilla war of resistance.

    Even in Africa and the Middle East although there have been plenty of civil wars, rarely has one country invaded its neighbour, with the odd exception like Saddam's invasion of Kuwait
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Interestingly Ukraine seems to have recaptured Mykolayiv airport - Russia must be questioning what they’ve let themselves in for

    4th SU-34 confirmed to be shot down, as well as Ukrainians making big claims about destroying 30 helicopters in Kherson airport last night.

    https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1500804173276848134. There's a satellite photo showing 49 helicopters there at 00:27 this morning, reports of fighting and explosions at the air base last night, but no photographic proof of the destroyed helicopters yet.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Russia is a big place. Yes, it depends how far Putin trusts China and the extent to which he believes his own propaganda about Nato being poised to invade any minute.
    My experience with Gen X Russians when I was there was that most said they were more frightened of nuclear oblivion after the Cold War than during it. Decades of Evil Empire rhetoric from the West had stuck and many believed that the West would take the opportunity of a failing economy, rusting military and drunken leader to make a first strike. Hence why strongman Putin has been popular, he allowed them to let go of that fear. I find it hard to believe that military command would be willing to leave the back door open to NATO, especially at a time of such heightened tension.

    Further, I’m not sure what evidence base Putin would have to trust Xi to the extent that it made him comfortable to leave Siberia undefended. I’ve certainly not seen it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,931

    The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent·16m⚡️ Ukrainian, Russian foreign ministers to meet in Turkey on March 10.

    Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have agreed to meet in Turkey’s coastal Antalya province, according to their Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu.

    Are they big snooker fans? Turkish Masters is on in Antalya this week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Sandpit said:

    Saying that you’ll stop fighting if the other side disbands its military and hoists your flag on all public buildings, doesn’t really count as much of a negotiation.
    Wasn't that the Mongolian approach in Middle Ages? Walk/ride up to a city. Tell them to surrender and join the mongol empire or we kill everyone. If the city refuses they kill every living thing and burn it all to the ground and then move on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    It appears that the Ukrainians may have sunk one of the Black Sea Fleet using a captured Grad rocket launcher.

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1500797084726964231

    Not just any old ship. says Wiki:

    "The ship Vasily Bykov participated in the Battle of Snake Island on 24 February during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine"

    That's some fucking karma, right there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Russian CDS at 2,500 bps.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    ping said:

    Gas (April delivery)

    Currently £6.80/therm (~23.2p/kWh)

    Went as high as £8/therm, earlier (~27.3p/kWh)

    Add a couple of pence/kWh for retail.

    Energy bills gonna hurt like crazy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Chameleon said:

    4th SU-34 confirmed to be shot down, as well as Ukrainians making big claims about destroying 30 helicopters in Kherson airport last night.

    https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1500804173276848134. There's a satellite photo showing 49 helicopters there at 00:27 this morning, reports of fighting and explosions at the air base last night, but no photographic proof of the destroyed helicopters yet.
    Could be anything tbh, but:


    "Apparently this is the moment 30 Russian helis were ambushed by Ukrainian soldiers"

    https://twitter.com/rkozlowski13/status/1500802377057718279
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Demilitarise so that we can overtake you without losing half our army and airforce in the next six months.
    There's probably a deal to be had on the second point but the first is unacceptable.

    Countries cannot be asked to disarm - they have a right to defend themselves.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    ping said:

    Gas (April delivery)

    Currently £6.80/therm (~23.2p/kWh)

    Went as high as £8/therm, earlier (~27.3p/kWh)

    That's about five times the retail rates of a year ago.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    NEW: Government chaos as Boris Johnson distances himself from Priti Patel on Ukrainian refugees, while also saying it's "not right" that only 50 have been granted visas to come to the UK.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-priti-patel-refugees_uk_6225f554e4b012a2628db826
This discussion has been closed.