The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
Denies intervention, repeatedly fails to deny mar 2020 meeting.
Denies the specific allegation in the form put to him is correct. He may be complaining the punctuation is incorrect...
Just for clarification is this person the one who came here when he was 8, is a British citizen, and wrote a column in the evening standard last week condemning Putin ?
And whose dad amassed billions of dollars out of a KGB salary below the UK average wage by frugal living and prudent investment. And who paid Johnson and his party millions out of that fortune at about peerage time. He's a creep, and Johnson is a bigger one.
Is a son to be a victim of his father's wrongdoings ?
Given the source of his wealth and the seeming increase in that wealth - it's a valid question to ask if that source of wealth may have an impact on his world view and real allegiances..
But the only way to fix it is to reform Party Political finance and stop anyone person or company from donating more than £x00 or £1000 a year.
I have no problem with limiting donations and from all sources including unions
However, is there any evidence he has acted in a malign manner or are we at the stage now that just being a Russian or of Russian descent confers guilty association
No, he is a mate of the corrupt pig in no 10. Nationality doesn't come in to it
His father seems to socialise with Sadig Khan and celebrities from the left
The EU are to open talks on Ukraine succession in the next few days
Excellent news
Accession. I don't think there's any vacancy that might imply succession.
Well, there's a vacancy for a permanently disgruntled member who pissed and moaned all through their association with the EU. Perhaps Ukraine may not want to take that as their model though.
There's also a vacancy for the EU's second largest paymaster, but I doubt Ukraine will be stepping up to that plate either.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
I mean, obviously you'd think not but then again Hartlepool exists and people like this would probably vote for it so who the fuck knows.
I think that we are too far down the road already.
Much of decarbonisation is already done, except for transport and residential. Transport is coming down the track, and they are thinking about residential.
The extensive offshore wind plans are very difficult to unwind, and cross-European energy infrastructure from the UK is being built at a furious pace.
There won't be very much that Farage can stop after the time it would take to get a referendum.
I am unfashionably unconvinced of the climate charge argument for net zero. But I am pretty enthusiastic about the energy-independence argument for it. I've long taken the view that the arguments for moving away from fossil fuels are far better when expressed as moving the UK away from reliance on dodgy regimes like Russia and Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
A bit of background on Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church.
This is massively oversimplified but might be of interest to some so hear goes.
There where 14 Orthodox independent churches that all recognise each other, but are independent, the Greek Orthodox church is the prime one, but its a first amongst equals thing not a signal man at the top like the Catholics. some of these 14 independent Orthodox churches also have smaller local semi-independent Orthodox churches, under them, which are recognised by the other 14 main churches as being part of the big one.
There are also smaller fully independent breakaway Churches that are typically not recognised by anybody, but I what go down that rabbit hole.
I think biggest of the semi-Independent churches was the Ukrainian Orthodox church which was subservient to the Russian Orthodox church. after 2014 the Ukrainian orthodox church decided it wanted to be independent but still recognised by all the other of the big 14. The other 13 where happy including the Greek Orthodox Church but Russians sead no, that was up till 2018, the Greeks and others had been trying to blocker a deal, but Patriarch Kirill would not contemplate it.
Eventually in 2018 everybody lost patients Ukrainian Orthodox church Just declared impedance and was recognised by the other 13, and Patriarch Kirill went ballistic, and stopped recognising any other the other Orthodox churches, so we are now back to 14 Independent Orthodox Churches, but the Russian orthodox Church is not one of them.
For the last 4 years Patriarch Kirill has been in a bad mood, rallying against the Ukrainians and anybody else in the west! to an extent this war looks less like Patriarch Kirill supporting Putin that Putin doing what Patriarch Kirill what's!!!! OK Putin was probably going to do this anyway, but don't expect Patriarch Kirill to be a peace blocker.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
NEW: Government chaos as Boris Johnson distances himself from Priti Patel on Ukrainian refugees, while also saying it's "not right" that only 50 have been granted visas to come to the UK.
"Not right" meaning more than that have been granted presumably, not that Priti has gone off piste.
I'm going for cockup rather than conspiracy on this whole saga.
This is the "Not Fit For Purpose" Home Office. Bureaucracy personified. Minister says let them in but keep track, Civil Service rewrites that into some labyrinthine process that nobody understands, people on the ground get confused and end up at 'computer says no'.
Someone needs to give them a rocket (possibly a real one).
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
I think the PB Brains trust will think of a few.
for a start, the Franko-Prussian war of 1870, ok its disputed who really started it, each side was keen for war and trying to provoke the other. but if you take it as France starting it than it was a big defeat.
I seem to recall a study from the University of Yale in the US, where the History department and Maths department collaborated to look at was in statistics, one thing was to look at who started it and who lost. they where expecting that the people who started it to win at least 50% of the time, but when they compiled all the know wars from history the nation that started lose 75% of the time! (this is with lots of caveats, become lots of wars each side clams the other started it)
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
A bit of background on Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church.
This is massively oversimplified but might be of interest to some so hear goes.
There where 14 Orthodox independent churches that all recognise each other, but are independent, the Greek Orthodox church is the prime one, but its a first amongst equals thing not a signal man at the top like the Catholics. some of these 14 independent Orthodox churches also have smaller local semi-independent Orthodox churches, under them, which are recognised by the other 14 main churches as being part of the big one.
There are also smaller fully independent breakaway Churches that are typically not recognised by anybody, but I what go down that rabbit hole.
I think biggest of the semi-Independent churches was the Ukrainian Orthodox church which was subservient to the Russian Orthodox church. after 2014 the Ukrainian orthodox church decided it wanted to be independent but still recognised by all the other of the big 14. The other 13 where happy including the Greek Orthodox Church but Russians sead no, that was up till 2018, the Greeks and others had been trying to blocker a deal, but Patriarch Kirill would not contemplate it.
Eventually in 2018 everybody lost patients Ukrainian Orthodox church Just declared impedance and was recognised by the other 13, and Patriarch Kirill went ballistic, and stopped recognising any other the other Orthodox churches, so we are now back to 14 Independent Orthodox Churches, but the Russian orthodox Church is not one of them.
For the last 4 years Patriarch Kirill has been in a bad mood, rallying against the Ukrainians and anybody else in the west! to an extent this war looks less like Patriarch Kirill supporting Putin that Putin doing what Patriarch Kirill what's!!!! OK Putin was probably going to do this anyway, but don't expect Patriarch Kirill to be a peace blocker.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
I think the PB Brains trust will think of a few.
for a start, the Franko-Prussian war of 1870, ok its disputed who really started it, each side was keen for war and trying to provoke the other. but if you take it as France starting it than it was a big defeat.
I seem to recall a study from the University of Yale in the US, where the History department and Maths department collaborated to look at was in statistics, one thing was to look at who started it and who lost. they where expecting that the people who started it to win at least 50% of the time, but when they compiled all the know wars from history the nation that started lose 75% of the time! (this is with lots of caveats, become lots of wars each side clams the other started it)
I've heard it said that every war since 1870 was arguably started by the side that lost.
1870 wasn't in the level of stupidity (for France) of the Paraguay War (also 1870) - there were a number of unbiased observers who thought that France could/would win.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
Paraguay declared war on Argentina, the Empire of Brazil, and Uruguay. This went just about as you'd expect.
There was serious thought, in the aftermath, given to just not having Paraguay exist at all. The majority of the population was dead, for a start.
Paraguay has one of the stupidest histories of any country on the planet, though with the occasional flash of shocking brilliance, as alluded to the other day in the case of the leader who inherited power from Stroessner and to everyone's surprise brought about a democracy, then gave up power voluntarily. This book is pretty entertaining on the subject: https://www.amazon.co.uk/At-Tomb-Inflatable-Pig-Paraguay-ebook/dp/B005F3GLFK
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
A bit of background on Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church.
This is massively oversimplified but might be of interest to some so hear goes.
There where 14 Orthodox independent churches that all recognise each other, but are independent, the Greek Orthodox church is the prime one, but its a first amongst equals thing not a signal man at the top like the Catholics. some of these 14 independent Orthodox churches also have smaller local semi-independent Orthodox churches, under them, which are recognised by the other 14 main churches as being part of the big one.
There are also smaller fully independent breakaway Churches that are typically not recognised by anybody, but I what go down that rabbit hole.
I think biggest of the semi-Independent churches was the Ukrainian Orthodox church which was subservient to the Russian Orthodox church. after 2014 the Ukrainian orthodox church decided it wanted to be independent but still recognised by all the other of the big 14. The other 13 where happy including the Greek Orthodox Church but Russians sead no, that was up till 2018, the Greeks and others had been trying to blocker a deal, but Patriarch Kirill would not contemplate it.
Eventually in 2018 everybody lost patients Ukrainian Orthodox church Just declared impedance and was recognised by the other 13, and Patriarch Kirill went ballistic, and stopped recognising any other the other Orthodox churches, so we are now back to 14 Independent Orthodox Churches, but the Russian orthodox Church is not one of them.
For the last 4 years Patriarch Kirill has been in a bad mood, rallying against the Ukrainians and anybody else in the west! to an extent this war looks less like Patriarch Kirill supporting Putin that Putin doing what Patriarch Kirill what's!!!! OK Putin was probably going to do this anyway, but don't expect Patriarch Kirill to be a peace blocker.
Was that helpful to anybody?
The Skoptsy sect cut their cock and balls off and piss through a cow horn. It never really caught on like they hoped it would.
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
He's a Putin puppet. Spreading anti-gay, anti-West, anti-woke, nationalist bollocks from every pulpit every week.
Clearly an arsehole, didn't know anything about him before. But presumably has some authority in Russia?
Unfortunately yes, despite being very obviously corrupt ($50,000 watches etc). His predecessor, Alexei II was a very senir KGB officer. Russia also persecutes any religious faith that is not officially registered.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
When the EEC was formed, remember it was West Germany only. Which was about equal or slightly less than France in many areas.
What Thatcher was on about when she opposed German reunification wan't that Germany would start another war, but that a reunited Germany would, once again, change the balance of Europe.
Previously, UK, France and West Germany were the Big Three... now....
Hence the collection of..... strangeness in the first round of the French Presidential elections.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
Maybe not, there was a good video on it by Military History Visualised.
who is an Austrian with knowledge of the German armed forces. which have been underfunded for some time.
short version, if this comes to pass, which itself is not certain given the recent history of German military funding, and is a one off payment, maybe spread over 4 or 5 years, then all it really does is bring German spending/equipment up to level of other EU nations on a per-capita bases.
I think absolute poverty might overtake relative (or 'normal') poverty in the next couple of years.
As an energetic participant in the "models are good, data is rubbish" debate at Christmas, I concede that the way we calculate poverty might be deeply flawed...
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
The irony of it being good news to hear the Germans intending to make theirs the most powerful military in Europe.
Like the Israeli joke (which depends on knowing the popularity in Israel of school trips to former death camps) where there is a terrorist bomb in tel aviv and someone says Omg are your children OK? Yes they are perfectly safe, they're at Auschwitz.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
Paraguay declared war on Argentina, the Empire of Brazil, and Uruguay. This went just about as you'd expect.
There was serious thought, in the aftermath, given to just not having Paraguay exist at all. The majority of the population was dead, for a start.
Paraguay has one of the stupidest histories of any country on the planet, though with the occasional flash of shocking brilliance, as alluded to the other day in the case of the leader who inherited power from Stroessner and to everyone's surprise brought about a democracy, then gave up power voluntarily. This book is pretty entertaining on the subject: https://www.amazon.co.uk/At-Tomb-Inflatable-Pig-Paraguay-ebook/dp/B005F3GLFK
That sounds fabulous
He's a brilliant author. His book on Sri Lanka, which I read in Sri Lanka, is travel-writing-meets-history at its finest. Beautifully written, often funny, full of juicy anecdotes, but necessarily and lucidly sober at times
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
In the short term, it means Germany spending a lot of money buying arms from France, so that's good. In the medium term, if German troops are part of the EU army, that is good for France as well.
I think absolute poverty might overtake relative (or 'normal') poverty in the next couple of years.
As an energetic participant in the "models are good, data is rubbish" debate at Christmas, I concede that the way we calculate poverty might be deeply flawed...
Extra points to anyone who can explain why.
Relative poverty is beloved by some because no matter how wealthy everyone becomes, as long as there is inequality, you can still have some in 'poverty'. Imagine giving everyone in the country 100,000 pounds. There would still be people below the relative poverty line, assuming current distributions of wealth. That no-one would be without food, heat and a decent TV wouldn't matter.
Relative poverty isn't really about poverty at all - its about inequality.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
Paraguay declared war on Argentina, the Empire of Brazil, and Uruguay. This went just about as you'd expect.
There was serious thought, in the aftermath, given to just not having Paraguay exist at all. The majority of the population was dead, for a start.
Paraguay has one of the stupidest histories of any country on the planet, though with the occasional flash of shocking brilliance, as alluded to the other day in the case of the leader who inherited power from Stroessner and to everyone's surprise brought about a democracy, then gave up power voluntarily. This book is pretty entertaining on the subject: https://www.amazon.co.uk/At-Tomb-Inflatable-Pig-Paraguay-ebook/dp/B005F3GLFK
Yess, Andrés Rodríguez.. a favourite subject of mine. WTF happened there?
And guess who wrote a brilliantly funny chapter on Paraguay in his book "Give War a Chance?"
"They don't make em like the Stroess anymore. Stroessner was so old and nasty that if Latin America were a soap opera - and some argue it is - you could cast him as the cold, disciplinarian dad that young, sensitive, caring Augusto Pinochet rebels against."
Denies intervention, repeatedly fails to deny mar 2020 meeting.
Denies the specific allegation in the form put to him is correct. He may be complaining the punctuation is incorrect...
Just for clarification is this person the one who came here when he was 8, is a British citizen, and wrote a column in the evening standard last week condemning Putin ?
And whose dad amassed billions of dollars out of a KGB salary below the UK average wage by frugal living and prudent investment. And who paid Johnson and his party millions out of that fortune at about peerage time. He's a creep, and Johnson is a bigger one.
Is a son to be a victim of his father's wrongdoings ?
Given the source of his wealth and the seeming increase in that wealth - it's a valid question to ask if that source of wealth may have an impact on his world view and real allegiances..
But the only way to fix it is to reform Party Political finance and stop anyone person or company from donating more than £x00 or £1000 a year.
I have no problem with limiting donations and from all sources including unions
However, is there any evidence he has acted in a malign manner or are we at the stage now that just being a Russian or of Russian descent confers guilty association
We don't know what the security services assessed, but it's reasonable to conclude it was something beyond "being a Russian". The claims relate to Johnson's decisions in the light of advice he was given, rather than just a general complaint that he was a bit too nice to someone with Russian connections.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
When the EEC was formed, remember it was West Germany only. Which was about equal or slightly less than France in many areas.
What Thatcher was on about when she opposed German reunification wan't that Germany would start another war, but that a reunited Germany would, once again, change the balance of Europe.
Previously, UK, France and West Germany were the Big Three... now....
Hence the collection of..... strangeness in the first round of the French Presidential elections.
Yep. Once this Ukraine crisis is over (and presuming the world exists) and if this German plan comes to pass I can see it contributing greatly to French euroscepticism, and altering French politics. The EU will be completely dominated by Germany
eg Macron is really keen on a European defence force, a sovereign autonomous EU military, and fair enough. But it is pretty clear he expects the French to lead it, as the biggest EU military (he just wants the Germans to pay for it)
If the Germans are the biggest military and the biggest payer, they will lead the new EU army, as they should - and France will have to yield to German ideas and commands. What is the French for "ouch"?
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
Bit of a cartoon view. But, yes, I do agree with the big point - right now any rivalry between the UK and the EU, and between countries in the EU, is of little consequence.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
Bit of a cartoon view. But, yes, I do agree with the big point - right now any rivalry between the UK and the EU, and between countries in the EU, is of little consequence.
Maybe we should rejoin to help balance out France and Germany...
"Protest takes many forms. eg, Moskva-24 state TV presenter Vyacheslav Tikhonov, live on the air, urged Muscovites not to stick “toilet-paper Z’s” on their car windows, saying they’re a debris hazard [it raises the likelihood of the car being hit by a heavy object -per translation in comments]. He was fired immediately after this segment aired."
All while wearing a blue beanie, with visible blue hoodie hood above a yellow high vis...
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
In the short term, it means Germany spending a lot of money buying arms from France, so that's good. In the medium term, if German troops are part of the EU army, that is good for France as well.
History tells us a potentially very different story......
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
Bit of a cartoon view. But, yes, I do agree with the big point - right now any rivalry between the UK and the EU, and between countries in the EU, is of little consequence.
It's not cartoonish, you just don't know the history, or cannot understand it, due to your weird brain
These delicate balancing acts are a recurring feature of the EU
eg Germany was allowed to reunite on the basis that, for balance, it dissolved the Deutschmark into the Single Currency
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
A bit of background on Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church.
This is massively oversimplified but might be of interest to some so hear goes.
There where 14 Orthodox independent churches that all recognise each other, but are independent, the Greek Orthodox church is the prime one, but its a first amongst equals thing not a signal man at the top like the Catholics. some of these 14 independent Orthodox churches also have smaller local semi-independent Orthodox churches, under them, which are recognised by the other 14 main churches as being part of the big one.
There are also smaller fully independent breakaway Churches that are typically not recognised by anybody, but I what go down that rabbit hole.
I think biggest of the semi-Independent churches was the Ukrainian Orthodox church which was subservient to the Russian Orthodox church. after 2014 the Ukrainian orthodox church decided it wanted to be independent but still recognised by all the other of the big 14. The other 13 where happy including the Greek Orthodox Church but Russians sead no, that was up till 2018, the Greeks and others had been trying to blocker a deal, but Patriarch Kirill would not contemplate it.
Eventually in 2018 everybody lost patients Ukrainian Orthodox church Just declared impedance and was recognised by the other 13, and Patriarch Kirill went ballistic, and stopped recognising any other the other Orthodox churches, so we are now back to 14 Independent Orthodox Churches, but the Russian orthodox Church is not one of them.
For the last 4 years Patriarch Kirill has been in a bad mood, rallying against the Ukrainians and anybody else in the west! to an extent this war looks less like Patriarch Kirill supporting Putin that Putin doing what Patriarch Kirill what's!!!! OK Putin was probably going to do this anyway, but don't expect Patriarch Kirill to be a peace blocker.
Was that helpful to anybody?
The Skoptsy sect cut their cock and balls off and piss through a cow horn. It never really caught on like they hoped it would.
I think they featured in James Meek vg novel The People's Act of Love? Of course the Russians may have more than one self castrating sect..
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
"Protest takes many forms. eg, Moskva-24 state TV presenter Vyacheslav Tikhonov, live on the air, urged Muscovites not to stick “toilet-paper Z’s” on their car windows, saying they’re a debris hazard [it raises the likelihood of the car being hit by a heavy object -per translation in comments]. He was fired immediately after this segment aired."
All while wearing a blue beanie, with visible blue hoodie hood above a yellow high vis...
Brilliant, another person I would love the opportunity to buy a Beer for
Mr. Leon, ha! If that's an accurate memory of history then the Germans had to 'suffer' a permanently more competitive exchange rate as the price of reunion. O woe!
Mr. Leon, ha! If that's an accurate memory of history then the Germans had to 'suffer' a permanently more competitive exchange rate as the price of reunion. O woe!
What's this about Patriarch Kirill blaming the West for the war because they organise genocides in countries that don't stage gay parades?
Surely can't be an accurate translation? Or an attempt to get support from the "anti-woke" nutters?
A bit of background on Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church.
This is massively oversimplified but might be of interest to some so hear goes.
There where 14 Orthodox independent churches that all recognise each other, but are independent, the Greek Orthodox church is the prime one, but its a first amongst equals thing not a signal man at the top like the Catholics. some of these 14 independent Orthodox churches also have smaller local semi-independent Orthodox churches, under them, which are recognised by the other 14 main churches as being part of the big one.
There are also smaller fully independent breakaway Churches that are typically not recognised by anybody, but I what go down that rabbit hole.
I think biggest of the semi-Independent churches was the Ukrainian Orthodox church which was subservient to the Russian Orthodox church. after 2014 the Ukrainian orthodox church decided it wanted to be independent but still recognised by all the other of the big 14. The other 13 where happy including the Greek Orthodox Church but Russians sead no, that was up till 2018, the Greeks and others had been trying to blocker a deal, but Patriarch Kirill would not contemplate it.
Eventually in 2018 everybody lost patients Ukrainian Orthodox church Just declared impedance and was recognised by the other 13, and Patriarch Kirill went ballistic, and stopped recognising any other the other Orthodox churches, so we are now back to 14 Independent Orthodox Churches, but the Russian orthodox Church is not one of them.
For the last 4 years Patriarch Kirill has been in a bad mood, rallying against the Ukrainians and anybody else in the west! to an extent this war looks less like Patriarch Kirill supporting Putin that Putin doing what Patriarch Kirill what's!!!! OK Putin was probably going to do this anyway, but don't expect Patriarch Kirill to be a peace blocker.
Was that helpful to anybody?
The Skoptsy sect cut their cock and balls off and piss through a cow horn. It never really caught on like they hoped it would.
NEW: Government chaos as Boris Johnson distances himself from Priti Patel on Ukrainian refugees, while also saying it's "not right" that only 50 have been granted visas to come to the UK.
"Not right" meaning more than that have been granted presumably, not that Priti has gone off piste.
I'm going for cockup rather than conspiracy on this whole saga.
This is the "Not Fit For Purpose" Home Office. Bureaucracy personified. Minister says let them in but keep track, Civil Service rewrites that into some labyrinthine process that nobody understands, people on the ground get confused and end up at 'computer says no'.
Someone needs to give them a rocket (possibly a real one).
I don't think the Home Office can cope with anything much more complicated than either "let them all in" or "keep them all out2.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
Paraguay declared war on Argentina, the Empire of Brazil, and Uruguay. This went just about as you'd expect.
There was serious thought, in the aftermath, given to just not having Paraguay exist at all. The majority of the population was dead, for a start.
Paraguay has one of the stupidest histories of any country on the planet, though with the occasional flash of shocking brilliance, as alluded to the other day in the case of the leader who inherited power from Stroessner and to everyone's surprise brought about a democracy, then gave up power voluntarily. This book is pretty entertaining on the subject: https://www.amazon.co.uk/At-Tomb-Inflatable-Pig-Paraguay-ebook/dp/B005F3GLFK
That sounds fabulous
He's a brilliant author. His book on Sri Lanka, which I read in Sri Lanka, is travel-writing-meets-history at its finest. Beautifully written, often funny, full of juicy anecdotes, but necessarily and lucidly sober at times
I'm tempted to go to Paraguay just so I can read that book about Paraguay IN PARAGUAY
It's gloriously atmospheric. It would be the perfect way to read the book - albeit a ludicrously expensive approach to reading. Btw, I am enjoying the book you recommended a few weeks back on St. Petersburg.
I think absolute poverty might overtake relative (or 'normal') poverty in the next couple of years.
As an energetic participant in the "models are good, data is rubbish" debate at Christmas, I concede that the way we calculate poverty might be deeply flawed...
Extra points to anyone who can explain why.
Relative poverty is beloved by some because no matter how wealthy everyone becomes, as long as there is inequality, you can still have some in 'poverty'. Imagine giving everyone in the country 100,000 pounds. There would still be people below the relative poverty line, assuming current distributions of wealth. That no-one would be without food, heat and a decent TV wouldn't matter.
Relative poverty isn't really about poverty at all - its about inequality.
Quite.
The absolute poverty line is increasing quickly as a result of the high rate of inflation.
If inflation is higher than the income growth of people in lower income deciles (likely, as benefits are uprated on the prior year's inflation rate) , absolute poverty will soar, with no similar impact on relative poverty if median incomes continue to move in line with lower incomes.
This is when the obsession with relative poverty comes back to bite. The Tories will point at it now and claim all is good, while people are genuinely suffering.
WRT the Ukraine war and the case for Scottish independence, people should not be so dismissive. Two glaringly obvious conclusions are already clear and obvious:
1. Self-determination is sacrosanct. The heroic stand of the Ukrainian people and their government against being swallowed whole by the Russian empire is something we will celebrate long after this war is over.
Its a difficult swing from "how marvellous that Ukrainian people still choose their own government" to "however Scotland votes it remains British" as pushed by HY and others
2. Local oil and gas resources are precious. The 2014 pitch was built heavily on an oil and gas economy which later collapsed with the price of oil. We are about to see record prices and no sign of them collapsing later due to the complete remapping of supplies.
On paper the SNP are dead against fossil fuels. Watch that abruptly reverse when they realise that as the west snuggles up to Iran and Venezuela to replace Russia they can also snuggle up to Scotland.
So I don't see the slightly triumphantist "this knackers the SNP" position. It is the opposite. A clarion call for self-determination. A future where energy self-sufficiency and safe supplies are paramount. A huge hypocritical turnaround from today's position? Sure - but so what? The world is changing hugely and quickly...
1. Rubbish.
For starters Ukraine is an independent state already Russia has invaded unlike Scotland so when we refuse the SNP Scottish government demand for indyref2 it is just an internal matter.
Much like Spain refused Catalonia's nationalist government even 1 independence referendum and has had no reaction from the international community for that.
In fact if Russia's occupation of Ukraine is followed by Chinese occupation of Taiwan if anything that shows a trend away from independent states, especially ones trying to defy a larger and more powerful neighbour that has a government that believes they should be in union with them
What is sacrosanct about the current arrangement of nation-states? Ever since we as a species developed beyond the concept of the time as a point of loyalty the state has been a fairly nebulous concept shifting and changing over time, sometimes as a result of military action.... revolution or conquest, sometimes peacefully.
Well that is true, a large nation with a strong military and army and navy could invade its smaller neighbours and build empires comprising less powerful nations abroad through much of world history.
Just now it has generally been seen as unacceptable to do that and that independent states' sovereignty should be respected. Putin has just ripped up that consensus to try and rebuild a Russian empire
Not entirely true, I'm afraid. Look, as one example, at Switzerland. Or, for another, at the USA, which threw off it's colonial masters. Or Ireland. On the other had, there are the 'nations' which were created, or re-created, after WWI, few of which still exist And in Africa colonial boundaries are, so far, respected, whereas in the Middle East and perhaps the Caucasus such boundaries have contributed to chaos.
Switzerland has largely avoided invasion by being a tax haven and neutral in virtually every war.
I don't think the tax haven point is relevant - more that the universal conscription and the mountainous terrain made Switzerland an extremely tough nut to crack.
Agreed. Every physically fit Swiss adult male is militarily trained, to a high level, and most keep a gun. Along with the mountainous terrain, it is a major disincentive to invaders.
I wonder if Putin's War is the most stupid war in history? It is genuinely hard to think of any other war which is so obviously self-harming and unwinnable
I think the PB Brains trust will think of a few.
for a start, the Franko-Prussian war of 1870, ok its disputed who really started it, each side was keen for war and trying to provoke the other. but if you take it as France starting it than it was a big defeat.
I seem to recall a study from the University of Yale in the US, where the History department and Maths department collaborated to look at was in statistics, one thing was to look at who started it and who lost. they where expecting that the people who started it to win at least 50% of the time, but when they compiled all the know wars from history the nation that started lose 75% of the time! (this is with lots of caveats, become lots of wars each side clams the other started it)
Isn't this because the victors tend to write history and write that the other side 'started it'.
Its rare for a nation to unabashedly admit they started a war, not even Putin is doing so, and losers don't tend to write history.
NEW: Government chaos as Boris Johnson distances himself from Priti Patel on Ukrainian refugees, while also saying it's "not right" that only 50 have been granted visas to come to the UK.
"Not right" meaning more than that have been granted presumably, not that Priti has gone off piste.
I'm going for cockup rather than conspiracy on this whole saga.
This is the "Not Fit For Purpose" Home Office. Bureaucracy personified. Minister says let them in but keep track, Civil Service rewrites that into some labyrinthine process that nobody understands, people on the ground get confused and end up at 'computer says no'.
Someone needs to give them a rocket (possibly a real one).
I don't think the Home Office can cope with anything much more complicated than either "let them all in" or "keep them all out2.
An ex who worked in Immigration law, told me the following tale -
When Mugabe did his thing with the white farmers in Zimbabwe, Gordon Brown was PM. The government really, really didn't want White Zimbabweans coming to Britain. So the Home Office tried telling the people in Zimbabwe to cut off any applications for visas etc they could.
A week later, some anguished calls were made - why have you cut off the supply of Zimbabweans coming to the UK to be medical staff? (apparently there is fair few of those) It turned out that most of the actual processing of applications was done by local Zimbabwean staff. So when they were told to clamp down on applications they assumed all applications. No one told them "No white people"....
So there was much burning of midnight oil to come up with definitions that would exclude white Zimbabweans, without interfering with the medical types. And could be applied universally, without looking discriminatory. One of the re-definitions was that service in the UK armed forces or winning medals was no longer counted towards immigration status.
Then, a little time later, a Nepalese chap, who had won the Victoria Cross....
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
Bit of a cartoon view. But, yes, I do agree with the big point - right now any rivalry between the UK and the EU, and between countries in the EU, is of little consequence.
It's not cartoonish, you just don't know the history, or cannot understand it, due to your weird brain
These delicate balancing acts are a recurring feature of the EU
eg Germany was allowed to reunite on the basis that, for balance, it dissolved the Deutschmark into the Single Currency
I only unfairly said it was cartoonish because you even more unfairly said my good observation about psyches being complex was ignorant.
Happy to put things a different way.
There's really no such thing as national psyches but it is true that the EU has to do balancing acts between national and collective aspirations. Indeed it's always doing that. It's the essence of it. The nature of the beast. And it's great mission and benefit - over and above all the economic stuff - is to keep nationalism in its box. Because we know where aggressive competing nationalisms on the continent of Europe can lead. The France/Germany angle you refer to is a part of this.
But now things look rocky. We're out, America might be turning away after 2024, Russia has invaded from the East, and Europe is probably going to need its own superpower military capability led by (as you say) the mighty D. So this makes it more important than ever that the EU survives and prospers. You don't want a big build-up of military power in Europe co-inciding with a Europe becoming more nationalist and less collectivist.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
So complex, the French psyche though. As are most psyches. Nothing special about the French in this regard.
That's simply ignorant.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
Bit of a cartoon view. But, yes, I do agree with the big point - right now any rivalry between the UK and the EU, and between countries in the EU, is of little consequence.
Maybe we should rejoin to help balance out France and Germany...
Well we'll be sorry if the EU fractures, I can promise you that. "Be careful what you wish for" applies in spades here to those (and sadly there are plenty of them) who root for such an outcome.
But anyway, tbc another time. There's a war on. A particularly awful and scary one. And quite unusual too being a crystal clear 'right v wrong' affair.
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
The 100-billion-euro package for the Bundeswehr is intended to make the German armed forces the most powerful in Europe, says Minister Christian Lindner
That is going to freak out people in France (any maybe in Britain, but less so now we are out of the EU)
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
Yes. I've been wondering about that. And because UK and France both have the expense of a nuclear deterrent, it would be very hard for either to increase defence spending so that their conventional forces were still superior to Germany's.
On the other hand, if the German army does nothing other than act as a welcome guest on NATO's eastern flank, then perhaps the change won't be as noticeable.
NEW: Government chaos as Boris Johnson distances himself from Priti Patel on Ukrainian refugees, while also saying it's "not right" that only 50 have been granted visas to come to the UK.
"Not right" meaning more than that have been granted presumably, not that Priti has gone off piste.
I'm going for cockup rather than conspiracy on this whole saga.
This is the "Not Fit For Purpose" Home Office. Bureaucracy personified. Minister says let them in but keep track, Civil Service rewrites that into some labyrinthine process that nobody understands, people on the ground get confused and end up at 'computer says no'.
Someone needs to give them a rocket (possibly a real one).
I don't think the Home Office can cope with anything much more complicated than either "let them all in" or "keep them all out2.
An ex who worked in Immigration law, told me the following tale -
When Mugabe did his thing with the white farmers in Zimbabwe, Gordon Brown was PM. The government really, really didn't want White Zimbabweans coming to Britain. So the Home Office tried telling the people in Zimbabwe to cut off any applications for visas etc they could.
A week later, some anguished calls were made - why have you cut off the supply of Zimbabweans coming to the UK to be medical staff? (apparently there is fair few of those) It turned out that most of the actual processing of applications was done by local Zimbabwean staff. So when they were told to clamp down on applications they assumed all applications. No one told them "No white people"....
So there was much burning of midnight oil to come up with definitions that would exclude white Zimbabweans, without interfering with the medical types. And could be applied universally, without looking discriminatory. One of the re-definitions was that service in the UK armed forces or winning medals was no longer counted towards immigration status.
Then, a little time later, a Nepalese chap, who had won the Victoria Cross....
LOL, I am more likely to be Pope, they would have had me out the door at the start of the apprenticeship. I am Church of Scotland (lapsed ) which would present issues I believe.
Only asked because you seem to be waging a war on foreskin.
LOL, I am more likely to be Pope, they would have had me out the door at the start of the apprenticeship. I am Church of Scotland (lapsed ) which would present issues I believe.
Only asked because you seem to be waging a war on foreskin.
I am only replying in kind to the odious creature. He seems to think he is some kind of smart arse and has a vendetta against Alex Salmond and Scottish in general. Unfortunately he has a crush on me and constantly writes the same old drivel time and time again. Very boring indeed. @pulpstar
The nature of our society is that many people don't care about things that don't directly affect them. They don't really care about the news unless it is sport or entertainment. Ukraine still won't have resonated much. Nor has the arguments about forthcoming tax rises.
What slams them now is the exploding price of road and heating fuels, gas, food and soon everything. And then there is supposedly a whopping tax rise to fund the NHS getting worse before it gets better.
Piers Morgan is one of many "i'm dead influential me" commentators demanding airstrikes and no fly zones. I don't think most normals want that - they don't want Russian airstrikes on Dudley as retaliation, and they don't want the war to completely bugger their ability to drive their car, heat their house etc.
So in answer to the question as to what the Nigel thinks he will do next and his reaction against "Net Zero 2050" I think there is a sizeable audience. Anti-war, anti-price rises, anti-woke crap (which includes green crap).
Farage can sniff out opportunities. Even before the current war Net Zero was an unachievable, astonishingly expensive vainglorious nonsense. A form of net zero or at least big reductions in emissions can be implemented, still at great cost, but it would require a lot of nuclear power generation and pragmatism over fracking and exploitation of our fossil fuel resources in the transition.
Sorry - but anyone who thinks fracking within the UK solves anything just confirms how absolutely clueless they are.
It doesn't work for multiple reasons which can be confirmed by other posters on here who understand both the geology, technology and the marketplace.
Oh and Farage is an idiot, the best approach now is to do the exact opposite of Putin's stooge and reduce the demand for gas.
It seems to me, and I am not an expert by any means, but locally fracking would be possible in Lancashire at least but for the politics?
It might just be spin, but from what I've heard it would be economical and the measurements of the earth tremors that put a halt to the project would be comparable to a truck driving past a house nearby. Is that not true?
The politics of NIMBYism seems to be the thing that has put a real block to it, my personal preference would be to say "f**k the NIMBYs" but that's always my attitude, including in my own backdoor. However its not going to happen, so offshore hydrocarbon development probably remains the best alternative for the transition would be my best uneducated guess.
You Tory halfwits will not be happy till you have F***ed the water table for a few litres of gas. Typical short sighted greedy lying cheating Tories.
Take a chill pill Malc.
F*** off, who are you to try and tell me what to post. Fracking is a disaster for the water table and only ignorant greedy crooked liars would want to do it for all the measly benefit it would provide.
For all his explosions and foul-mouthed abuse on here, I would not be at all surprised to find that Malc is a very pleasant person in real life.
OKC, I am indeed a gentleman but I cannot suffer ignorant no mark keyboard warriors thinking they know everything and pontificating on people. As you say I have cultured conversations with like minded people like yourself and treat the morons as they deserve to be treated.
But you don't do that last bit.
I merely reply in kind , if the poster is cultered/decent I will reply pleasantly at worst , if bollox I will say so and for the few morons I will treat them as they deserve. I do try to have some fun at the same timeit is after all only the internet. You will note I am never anything but civil to those that are real gentlemen. Others are just fun, ie Carlotta and I have strong banter back and forth and all taken as it should be on both sides.
No, you are just a rude and childish little thug to anyone who questions your simplistic view of Scotland.
You have used your repetition of words such as moron, cretin imbecile without the understanding of irony that your level of your posts suggests your intelligence might well meet one of these anachronistic criteria. That is how your spat with me began.
You hope that hurling incoherent abuse at people will stop them them questioning your immature world view. You are far more prejudiced and right wing in your views than any of the right wing Tories you claim to despise, whether it is your views on modernity, or the rights of trans people you are more gammon and dinosaur than Nigel Farage.
WRT the Ukraine war and the case for Scottish independence, people should not be so dismissive. Two glaringly obvious conclusions are already clear and obvious:
1. Self-determination is sacrosanct. The heroic stand of the Ukrainian people and their government against being swallowed whole by the Russian empire is something we will celebrate long after this war is over.
Its a difficult swing from "how marvellous that Ukrainian people still choose their own government" to "however Scotland votes it remains British" as pushed by HY and others
2. Local oil and gas resources are precious. The 2014 pitch was built heavily on an oil and gas economy which later collapsed with the price of oil. We are about to see record prices and no sign of them collapsing later due to the complete remapping of supplies.
On paper the SNP are dead against fossil fuels. Watch that abruptly reverse when they realise that as the west snuggles up to Iran and Venezuela to replace Russia they can also snuggle up to Scotland.
So I don't see the slightly triumphantist "this knackers the SNP" position. It is the opposite. A clarion call for self-determination. A future where energy self-sufficiency and safe supplies are paramount. A huge hypocritical turnaround from today's position? Sure - but so what? The world is changing hugely and quickly...
Thoughtful post, but completely wrong in its conclusions. I don't think many people will be equating the devastation in Ukraine with Scotland. I think they will be seeing that hanging together is better than hanging apart.
You may be right about an SNP volte face on their policy of scrapping Scotland's oil and gas sector. But, in order to do that, they would have to junk their increasingly embarrassing partnership with the Greens. That would entirely upend Sturgeon's political strategy.
I don't see the Ukrainian crisis leading to a swing to Yes. But then, who truly knows in these unpredictable times?
As a hang togetherer I personally agree with your premise there. But the existing union is increasingly unfit for purpose and needs reform. The status quo is unattractive. And we're about to see a big pro self-determination push...
Mebbes, but the Holyrood parliament already has considerable powers. We could go full "home-rule" but presumably that would mean an end to Barnett and fiscal transfers northwards.
My basic contention is that Scots are extremely unlikely to knowingly vote to make themselves poorer. This puts the Yes campaign in a difficult position. They can only win by knowingly misleading the population.
BTW - a strange time for Blackford to double-down on chucking out Trident.
Comments
Germany will be the dominant economic AND military power in the EU. And the biggest in population. Dislodging France entirely from any primacy. That will be uncomfortable for the French psyche
Paraguay declared war on Argentina, the Empire of Brazil, and Uruguay. This went just about as you'd expect.
There was serious thought, in the aftermath, given to just not having Paraguay exist at all. The majority of the population was dead, for a start.
The hive mind of PB always has an answer. Yes that looks even dumber
I'm going for cockup rather than conspiracy on this whole saga.
This is the "Not Fit For Purpose" Home Office. Bureaucracy personified. Minister says let them in but keep track, Civil Service rewrites that into some labyrinthine process that nobody understands, people on the ground get confused and end up at 'computer says no'.
Someone needs to give them a rocket (possibly a real one).
for a start, the Franko-Prussian war of 1870, ok its disputed who really started it, each side was keen for war and trying to provoke the other. but if you take it as France starting it than it was a big defeat.
I seem to recall a study from the University of Yale in the US, where the History department and Maths department collaborated to look at was in statistics, one thing was to look at who started it and who lost. they where expecting that the people who started it to win at least 50% of the time, but when they compiled all the know wars from history the nation that started lose 75% of the time! (this is with lots of caveats, become lots of wars each side clams the other started it)
1870 wasn't in the level of stupidity (for France) of the Paraguay War (also 1870) - there were a number of unbiased observers who thought that France could/would win.
At its core, the EU is a careful balancing act between France and Germany, in terms of power. Germany is bigger in sheer numbers, and economic strength, but it was always tacitly accepted that France would be equal by virtue of cultural influence (eg the use of French in all EEC institutions) along with military superiority.
The French language is long gone, supplanted by English, thanks to UK accession, and now Germany will also be bigger in terms of military power. That fundamentally unbalances the EU
It may not matter. It should not matter. We really are all allies now, against the Evil Russians
But I think it will cause issues, medium term
What Thatcher was on about when she opposed German reunification wan't that Germany would start another war, but that a reunited Germany would, once again, change the balance of Europe.
Previously, UK, France and West Germany were the Big Three... now....
Hence the collection of..... strangeness in the first round of the French Presidential elections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDUElJY4xNQ
who is an Austrian with knowledge of the German armed forces. which have been underfunded for some time.
short version, if this comes to pass, which itself is not certain given the recent history of German military funding, and is a one off payment, maybe spread over 4 or 5 years, then all it really does is bring German spending/equipment up to level of other EU nations on a per-capita bases.
As an energetic participant in the "models are good, data is rubbish" debate at Christmas, I concede that the way we calculate poverty might be deeply flawed...
Extra points to anyone who can explain why.
He's a brilliant author. His book on Sri Lanka, which I read in Sri Lanka, is travel-writing-meets-history at its finest. Beautifully written, often funny, full of juicy anecdotes, but necessarily and lucidly sober at times
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00TOOS5KK/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
I'm tempted to go to Paraguay just so I can read that book about Paraguay IN PARAGUAY
Relative poverty isn't really about poverty at all - its about inequality.
And guess who wrote a brilliantly funny chapter on Paraguay in his book "Give War a Chance?"
"They don't make em like the Stroess anymore. Stroessner was so old and nasty that if Latin America were a soap opera - and some argue it is - you could cast him as the cold, disciplinarian dad that young, sensitive, caring Augusto Pinochet rebels against."
eg Macron is really keen on a European defence force, a sovereign autonomous EU military, and fair enough. But it is pretty clear he expects the French to lead it, as the biggest EU military (he just wants the Germans to pay for it)
If the Germans are the biggest military and the biggest payer, they will lead the new EU army, as they should - and France will have to yield to German ideas and commands. What is the French for "ouch"?
"Protest takes many forms. eg, Moskva-24 state TV presenter Vyacheslav Tikhonov, live on the air, urged Muscovites not to stick “toilet-paper Z’s” on their car windows, saying they’re a debris hazard [it raises the likelihood of the car being hit by a heavy object -per translation in comments]. He was fired immediately after this segment aired."
All while wearing a blue beanie, with visible blue hoodie hood above a yellow high vis...
These delicate balancing acts are a recurring feature of the EU
eg Germany was allowed to reunite on the basis that, for balance, it dissolved the Deutschmark into the Single Currency
Would the blues and reds become de facto Stay Out and Rejoin parties?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/05/ukraine-new-orthodox-church-gains-independence-from-moscow
Business Ukraine mag
@Biz_Ukraine_Mag
BREAKING: Red Cross says evacuation route from Mariupol offered by Russia was mined
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1500780148236464129?s=20&t=sncA7krHNZPQybQP57PMiQ
Confirmation:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c&Evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined, Red Cross says&2022-03-07T08:47:05.732Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:db771701-6dc4-4ec6-80c5-bf4be97ab054&pinned_post_asset_id=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c&pinned_post_type=share
Btw, I am enjoying the book you recommended a few weeks back on St. Petersburg.
The absolute poverty line is increasing quickly as a result of the high rate of inflation.
If inflation is higher than the income growth of people in lower income deciles (likely, as benefits are uprated on the prior year's inflation rate) , absolute poverty will soar, with no similar impact on relative poverty if median incomes continue to move in line with lower incomes.
This is when the obsession with relative poverty comes back to bite. The Tories will point at it now and claim all is good, while people are genuinely suffering.
Its rare for a nation to unabashedly admit they started a war, not even Putin is doing so, and losers don't tend to write history.
When Mugabe did his thing with the white farmers in Zimbabwe, Gordon Brown was PM. The government really, really didn't want White Zimbabweans coming to Britain. So the Home Office tried telling the people in Zimbabwe to cut off any applications for visas etc they could.
A week later, some anguished calls were made - why have you cut off the supply of Zimbabweans coming to the UK to be medical staff? (apparently there is fair few of those) It turned out that most of the actual processing of applications was done by local Zimbabwean staff. So when they were told to clamp down on applications they assumed all applications. No one told them "No white people"....
So there was much burning of midnight oil to come up with definitions that would exclude white Zimbabweans, without interfering with the medical types. And could be applied universally, without looking discriminatory. One of the re-definitions was that service in the UK armed forces or winning medals was no longer counted towards immigration status.
Then, a little time later, a Nepalese chap, who had won the Victoria Cross....
Happy to put things a different way.
There's really no such thing as national psyches but it is true that the EU has to do balancing acts between national and collective aspirations. Indeed it's always doing that. It's the essence of it. The nature of the beast. And it's great mission and benefit - over and above all the economic stuff - is to keep nationalism in its box. Because we know where aggressive competing nationalisms on the continent of Europe can lead. The France/Germany angle you refer to is a part of this.
But now things look rocky. We're out, America might be turning away after 2024, Russia has invaded from the East, and Europe is probably going to need its own superpower military capability led by (as you say) the mighty D. So this makes it more important than ever that the EU survives and prospers. You don't want a big build-up of military power in Europe co-inciding with a Europe becoming more nationalist and less collectivist.
But anyway, tbc another time. There's a war on. A particularly awful and scary one. And quite unusual too being a crystal clear 'right v wrong' affair.
It is about 2.5% of GDP, which covers approx 4-5 years of shortfall - whilst the shortfall has been happening since the millenium at least.
All it will cover is pothole filling and sticky plasters, plus a little more.
On the other hand, if the German army does nothing other than act as a welcome guest on NATO's eastern flank, then perhaps the change won't be as noticeable.