Okay I'll take a wager with any one of you for just a tenner that Ukraine will not feature on the front print page of three of the following on a single day between now and the end of next month:
The Sun The Daily Mail The Daily Telegraph The Times The Guardian The Independent The i The Daily Express
You going for London Bridge, huh?
? Don't understand.
I'm sure it's a clever comment but to someone who you don't have marked for intelligence you might have to stoop to explain.
The death of HM the Q....
Oh!!!!!
Gosh. No I wasn't actually.
Would do the job though!
It would indeed.
But I'm not relying on that to win the bet!
How do you get a story onto the front print page of the Independent?
Okay I'll take a wager with any one of you for just a tenner that Ukraine will not feature on the front print page of three of the following on a single day between now and the end of next month:
The Sun The Daily Mail The Daily Telegraph The Times The Guardian The Independent The i The Daily Express
Sloppy wording which makes that so definitely a losing bet for you that it would be cruel to take your money.
Have the courage to bet with me on it then if you're so sure.
Let's make the proceeds go to one of the Ukrainian charity appeals. Then it won't be such a cruelty for you.
(The wording was designed to make clear that it has to be on the same day obviously and 3 of those print editions. Pretty clear and explanatory.)
So if there's a single day where at least three of those papers have Ukraine mentioned anywhere on the front page between now and the end of April, I win?
I am happy to take the bet for a tenner
Morning Malc.
How did your nags get on at the weekend ?
Taz, not great , I had my EW single placed , trixie on both Saturday and Sunday were down. Racing was not that great and I did not have lot of time to spend looking at them but no excuse. Still merely a hobby and both my accounts have enough money to keep me going for a while.
"This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m "Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described the war as a “total failure” that could be compared only to the collapse of Nazi Germany. A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine."
As ever, IANAE.
IMV the next week are key. There are vague signs that Russian forces are building up for an attack, possibly on Kiev. If that works, the war is essentially over. If it fails, Russia is in even deeper trouble.
Can Kiev, and Ukraine, hold on for that week despite everything Russia throws at them? I hope so, but I doubt it...
That's not quite true. Russia can probably hold Eastern Ukraine. But holding Eastern Ukraine (with all the troops required), while pushing 200 miles to the East with stretched supply lines and diminishing numbers of troops would be far from easy.
We're currently having an extension built, single storey, approx 22.5 sqm internal area. One wall mostly glass, aprox 4m wide (bifolds), two side walls and then open to kitchen in old part of house. We have to shortly choose between electric or hydronic underfloor heating. Difference in installation cost looks to be ~£2000 (electric cheaper) but the hydronic looks to have much cheaper running costs. The only direct comparisons I've found are on websites of companies selling hydronic systems, so clearly potential bias, but they put the difference in running costs for that kind of area at ~£400/year favouring hydronic, at 2019 prices. Now, at 2019 prices, our entire energy bill was under £900/year so I find that hard to believe, but still. Hydronic would, for now, be served from the CH boiler (2019 install, condensing combi) but could potentially come off an air source heat pump at a later point.
Any thoughts? On running costs or other pros/cons? We have electric underfloor heating (under tiles) in an upstairs bathroom and tha works well, but you can tell exactly where the mat is and is not, not an issue as where it is not is areas not normally trodden on, but those areas remain cold to touch.
James Cleverly seems to be attempting the tricky argument that it doesn’t matter who’s in the House of Lords because most of them don’t do anything. Very high level of difficulty https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1500751979429216264
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
I wonder why the UK isn't handing over any Javelin - which is a much bigger stick than NLAW.
I assume cost comes into it somewhere as Javelin rounds are very expensive and the MoD will have no fucking hope of being reimbursed for them.
Weren't many of the NLAW we've sent approaching their "use by" date?
Dunno, but they were bought in the mid noughties so probably.
Scrapping each one on a bit of Russian kit gets my vote....
There was a press report on the weekend - will have to dig it out, that a big chunk of the weapons deliveries to Ukraine were being coordinated - as in "who provides what", off a list based on what the Ukrainians have asked for.
"This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m "Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described the war as a “total failure” that could be compared only to the collapse of Nazi Germany. A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine."
As ever, IANAE.
IMV the next week are key. There are vague signs that Russian forces are building up for an attack, possibly on Kiev. If that works, the war is essentially over. If it fails, Russia is in even deeper trouble.
Can Kiev, and Ukraine, hold on for that week despite everything Russia throws at them? I hope so, but I doubt it...
That's not quite true. Russia can probably hold Eastern Ukraine. But holding Eastern Ukraine (with all the troops required), while pushing 200 miles to the East with stretched supply lines and diminishing numbers of troops would be far from easy.
I think you mean West but I get your point.....which raises the question of what the hell Putin is trying to achieve. I just don't see a way out of this mess for him, or Russia.
Sure it's a disaster for us all, but eventually for Russia above any other nation.
To put this in context: over 11,000 Ukrainian refugees arrived in Berlin on Saturday alone (no visa required for at least a year under rules revised by EU on Thursday).
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Transparency International has identified a number of weak points in the government's plan, including an 18-month lead-in time, inadequate penalties for those who break the rules, and the absence of an accurate record of who holds what assets.
...
Others attribute the lack of action over the 2020 Russia report to, at least in part, what it had to say about Brexit. Dominic Grieve, former chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee, said there was an "embarrassment" that the outcome might have been influenced by hostile actors, which fed into an unwillingness to look too closely at it.
The more I see this graph the more I marvel at just how stupid you would have to be to think it was something to boast about. There's a strong case for arguing that Eton should refund his school fees. https://twitter.com/Klobo15/status/1500753511478435840
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
James "Cleverly" seems to be attempting the tricky argument that it doesn’t matter who’s in the House of Lords because most of them don’t do anything. Very high level of difficulty https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1500751979429216264
So basically "most of our appointees are completely useless, except as vice fodder in emergencies" ?
Doesn't say much about his opinion of Tory appointments.
Of course the HoL does important stuff, and some peers are of very high calibre. As an example, the HoL Foreign Affairs committee gave prescient warnings to ministers a year in advance of the Afghan debacle (which the Commons equivalent almost completely missed) ... and were completely ignored by this government.
Transparency International has identified a number of weak points in the government's plan, including an 18-month lead-in time, inadequate penalties for those who break the rules, and the absence of an accurate record of who holds what assets.
...
Others attribute the lack of action over the 2020 Russia report to, at least in part, what it had to say about Brexit. Dominic Grieve, former chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee, said there was an "embarrassment" that the outcome might have been influenced by hostile actors, which fed into an unwillingness to look too closely at it.
"others" "attribute" "at least in part" - could you make a weaker case?
And Dominic Grieve? lol..... No axe to grind there then.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Okay I'll take a wager with any one of you for just a tenner that Ukraine will not feature on the front print page of three of the following on a single day between now and the end of next month:
The Sun The Daily Mail The Daily Telegraph The Times The Guardian The Independent The i The Daily Express
That is rather silly as something will command a days headlines but this war is going to dominate the media for months and years
It won't, and for the simple reason that they will run out of new things to talk about. This is the scenario where the offensive bogs down into the mud and ends up as a protracted "battle" with occasional skirmishes but neither side making substantial progress.
If that happens, it won't new news any more - the clue is in the "NEW" part of the word news. Other newer more shocking events and revelations will rank higher than retread reporting about Ukraine and gradually it recedes. Will still pop back up, we'll still get front pages, but they will be UK focused not Ukraine focused.
We have already seen that. The Mail on Sunday front page was an internal UK politics "story", not war reporting.
The Mail on Sunday front page was Boris 6 point plan to beat Putin
I rather think you hope it will recede from news but that is as I have said earlier hope over expectation
Yes. BORIS. That was the focus. Not the war, just how the Tories who are quoted as being "delighted" by the war are using it to boost the Big Dog.
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree and experience working as a journalist is a little while ago, I am not making up how the industry works.
Transparency International has identified a number of weak points in the government's plan, including an 18-month lead-in time, inadequate penalties for those who break the rules, and the absence of an accurate record of who holds what assets.
...
Others attribute the lack of action over the 2020 Russia report to, at least in part, what it had to say about Brexit. Dominic Grieve, former chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee, said there was an "embarrassment" that the outcome might have been influenced by hostile actors, which fed into an unwillingness to look too closely at it.
"others" "attribute" "at least in part" - could you make a weaker case?
And Dominic Grieve? lol..... No axe to grind there then.
On that basis you would immediately discount anything ever said by any member of the government.
The proposition that the Russia Report has been buried, in part at least because of concerns about what it might dig up about the Brexit Referendum, is entirely credible.
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
He also told me that men aren't allowed to leave Ukraine - which I wasn't aware of though it has been reported. Clearly some men are managing to leave anyway. I know people who have driven vans to the Ukraine-Poland border dropped off medical supplies and picked people up not exclusively women and children, though mostly. No problems bringing them back to Germany.
Germany is probably a country that is being one of the worst directly hit by the sanctions so far (eg 2021 exports to Russia about 6 times UK exports to Russia, similarly levels of FDI), though everywhere is going to feel it. It does feel a bit off to have some of the very same posters full of righteous indignation about Germany delaying throwing Russia out of Swift, being so very understanding about the "difficulty" of Britain quickly imposing sanctions on Russian oligarchs (their argument boils down to - the UK can't afford to because it would damage London's reputation as a place where foreign dictators and kleptocrats can stash their cash safely)
Once more time, it bears stating that the money isn't the problem. Well, not the biggest problem anyway.
The British Army is absolutely riven by a bitter factional fight between the innovators and the traditionalists. The innovators finally gained the upper hand in about 2014 and completely upended all of the priorities by putting Mechanized Infantry ahead of Artillery and Heavy Armour - the opposite of the previously identified traditionalist procurement schedule. Ajax just managed to squeak through before the innovators could kill it. Now even though the fact that is fucked is just about the only thing everybody agrees one nobody wants to cancel because they know they won't get any more money. If they let it limp on there's always a chance the Treasury will have to bail it and General Dynamics out.
Until that conflict is resolved and one faction or the other decisively triumphs everything, from equipment procurement to force structures, is an ill-fitting compromise.
Giving them more money probably makes the problem worse at this point, TBH.
The French Army went through the same painful internal struggle about 10 years and their innovators had a decisive victory and implemented the 'Scorpion' program.
Ukraine is remarkably open about their own casualties, including what must be highly consequential losses of pilots. Reports like this are a regular feature.
They believed in Freedom and the right to live and work in their God-given land. Remember they laid down their lives not only for #Ukraine, but for all of Europe! RIP - Pilot Oleksand Oksancheko, Hero of Ukraine Major Stepan Choban, Stanislav Kovtun https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500746455023337472
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
The nature of our society is that many people don't care about things that don't directly affect them. They don't really care about the news unless it is sport or entertainment. Ukraine still won't have resonated much. Nor has the arguments about forthcoming tax rises.
What slams them now is the exploding price of road and heating fuels, gas, food and soon everything. And then there is supposedly a whopping tax rise to fund the NHS getting worse before it gets better.
Piers Morgan is one of many "i'm dead influential me" commentators demanding airstrikes and no fly zones. I don't think most normals want that - they don't want Russian airstrikes on Dudley as retaliation, and they don't want the war to completely bugger their ability to drive their car, heat their house etc.
So in answer to the question as to what the Nigel thinks he will do next and his reaction against "Net Zero 2050" I think there is a sizeable audience. Anti-war, anti-price rises, anti-woke crap (which includes green crap).
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
Which worked as well as with China. Perhaps there is a lesson in diversification there.
What if we shifted 1/3rd of of buying cheap crap to South America, 1/3rd to India and 1/3rd to Africa? That would put the shits up the Xi 1000% more than 10 new aircraft carriers.
It would also do for South America, India and Africa what the money previously did for China - give them the ability to pull themselves up to the next level in development.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
At a guess that's probably why the bombing of civilians has gone right up. RU is desperate. Sickening.
The nature of our society is that many people don't care about things that don't directly affect them. They don't really care about the news unless it is sport or entertainment. Ukraine still won't have resonated much. Nor has the arguments about forthcoming tax rises.
What slams them now is the exploding price of road and heating fuels, gas, food and soon everything. And then there is supposedly a whopping tax rise to fund the NHS getting worse before it gets better.
Piers Morgan is one of many "i'm dead influential me" commentators demanding airstrikes and no fly zones. I don't think most normals want that - they don't want Russian airstrikes on Dudley as retaliation, and they don't want the war to completely bugger their ability to drive their car, heat their house etc.
So in answer to the question as to what the Nigel thinks he will do next and his reaction against "Net Zero 2050" I think there is a sizeable audience. Anti-war, anti-price rises, anti-woke crap (which includes green crap).
Let's hope Biden doesn't pay any attention to the likes of Piers Morgan. If he has even heard of him.
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
Which worked as well as with China. Perhaps there is a lesson in diversification there.
What if we shifted 1/3rd of of buying cheap crap to South America, 1/3rd to India and 1/3rd to Africa? That would put the shits up the Xi 1000% more than 10 new aircraft carriers.
It would also do for South America, India and Africa what the money previously did for China - give them the ability to pull themselves up to the next level in development.
I.e. get their own industrial revolutions with all the concrete, steel and energy consumption that entails, with all the AGW consequences you'd expect. We are sooo buggered.
Certainly the current situation has secured Boris' position for the time being as he becomes a national leader in time of crisis. Even Starmer agreed Boris was safe for the short term yesterday.
The situation has also boosted the profile and chances of the defence secretary Ben Wallace at the expense of Sunak and Truss. Wallace also led the latest ConHome Cabinet favourable rating
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
Let's be real here: actual documented Russian aircraft losses are 10 fixed wing and 11 rotary wing.
That's not nothing, particularly the loss of the crews, but it's still not a significant loss for the VVS.
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
Even if that proved not to be the case, it doesn't mean the policy was wrong. How much worse a situation might we be in were Russia's economy tightly integrated with that of China ?
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
At a guess that's probably why the bombing of civilians has gone right up. RU is desperate. Sickening.
Sadly yes. They needed a quick war, but instead are bogged down (sometimes quite literally!), struggling with supply lines and don’t have air superiority.
The longer the conflict continues, the more desparate the Russians get - hence the suggestion they might bomb the power station, which is as good as a nuclear attack to the rest of the world.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
Okay I'll take a wager with any one of you for just a tenner that Ukraine will not feature on the front print page of three of the following on a single day between now and the end of next month:
The Sun The Daily Mail The Daily Telegraph The Times The Guardian The Independent The i The Daily Express
You going for London Bridge, huh?
? Don't understand.
I'm sure it's a clever comment but to someone who you don't have marked for intelligence you might have to stoop to explain.
London bridge is the code for the queen dying. I imagine that would take the front pages
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
and of course, the Taliban achieved a similar feat against the RAF- guarded airfield at Camp Bastion in 2012 destroying 8 Harriers, I remember it being reported as one of the biggest aircraft losses by the US in a single action since the raids over Vietnam
Once more time, it bears stating that the money isn't the problem. Well, not the biggest problem anyway.
The British Army is absolutely riven by a bitter factional fight between the innovators and the traditionalists. The innovators finally gained the upper hand in about 2014 and completely upended all of the priorities by putting Mechanized Infantry ahead of Artillery and Heavy Armour - the opposite of the previously identified traditionalist procurement schedule. Ajax just managed to squeak through before the innovators could kill it. Now even though the fact that is fucked is just about the only thing everybody agrees one nobody wants to cancel because they know they won't get any more money. If they let it limp on there's always a chance the Treasury will have to bail it and General Dynamics out.
Until that conflict is resolved and one faction or the other decisively triumphs everything, from equipment procurement to force structures, is an ill-fitting compromise.
Giving them more money probably makes the problem worse at this point, TBH.
The French Army went through the same painful internal struggle about 10 years and their innovators had a decisive victory and implemented the 'Scorpion' program.
Lloyd George's war memoirs are full of it. In the Index, you get entries like "Military Mind: narrowness of, regards thinking as a form of mutiny."
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
Let's be real here: actual documented Russian aircraft losses are 10 fixed wing and 11 rotary wing.
That's not nothing, particularly the loss of the crews, but it's still not a significant loss for the VVS.
Where are you finding actual numbers? So far I have seen the claims from Russia about their losses, the claims from Ukraine and some claims from various third parties, stating that that they are compiling tail numbers...
Whay did Moscow pick out the UK two days ago for having the strongest sanctions?
Let's face it your source is not the most reliable. "Our 180,000 troops in Ukraine are simply engaged in peacekeeping duties".
So Moscow picked out a country that was doing the least on sanctions to say that they were doing the most.
There's 2 points to what Moscow says: First, it will say anything to try and divide Europe, so an element of trolling. Secondly, maybe Britain is a country that potentially could still impose some pretty painful sanctions on Putin and his mates but hasn't done so yet, and the propaganda is aimed at preventing this as far as possible.
Bootle arguing that defence spend must go up to 4% at least after all this. I agree. If not higher imho. He says this must not come from increase in tax but from rebalancing existing public spend. Harder to do than sounds imho. I think some kind of wealth tax would be better. After all, what use is the millions in your property wealth if the country is being razed to the ground by Russians?
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
Just found out this guy owns the Independent, Evening Standard and London Live.
And a pub with Sir Ian McKellen. http://www.thegrapes.co.uk/history.php Pretty well integrated into British life - he's lived here since he was 8 - he could be entirely above board.
Whay did Moscow pick out the UK two days ago for having the strongest sanctions?
Let's face it your source is not the most reliable. "Our 180,000 troops in Ukraine are simply engaged in peacekeeping duties".
So Moscow picked out a country that was doing the least on sanctions to say that they were doing the most.
To say that they were SAYING the most. Tiniest hint of a difference?
I also assume that the Rooshians still retain enough smarts to see that the UK is the black sheep that it’s worth trying to peel off from the herd, or at least encourage it to indulge in a lot of exceptionalist baahing.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
Let's be real here: actual documented Russian aircraft losses are 10 fixed wing and 11 rotary wing.
That's not nothing, particularly the loss of the crews, but it's still not a significant loss for the VVS.
Where are you finding actual numbers? So far I have seen the claims from Russia about their losses, the claims from Ukraine and some claims from various third parties, stating that that they are compiling tail numbers...
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
and of course, the Taliban achieved a similar feat against the RAF- guarded airfield at Camp Bastion in 2012 destroying 8 Harriers, I remember it being reported as one of the biggest aircraft losses by the US in a single action since the raids over Vietnam
The RAF Regiment's finest hour! There was a spate of brassing up their own body armour immediately after the attack in the hunt for medals.
Bootle arguing that defence spend must go up to 4% at least after all this. I agree. If not higher imho. He says this must not come from increase in tax but from rebalancing existing public spend. Harder to do than sounds imho. I think some kind of wealth tax would be better. After all, what use is the millions in your property wealth if the country is being razed to the ground by Russians?
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
I lose track of the number of problems ‘some kind of wealth tax’ will magically solve. Paying for an ongoing 4% in defence spending wouldn’t be one of them…
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
I think you've been taken in by the phrase "taken in".
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
Which worked as well as with China. Perhaps there is a lesson in diversification there.
What if we shifted 1/3rd of of buying cheap crap to South America, 1/3rd to India and 1/3rd to Africa? That would put the shits up the Xi 1000% more than 10 new aircraft carriers.
It would also do for South America, India and Africa what the money previously did for China - give them the ability to pull themselves up to the next level in development.
We might usefully give greater priority to manufacturing in the UK. In that respect we matter considerably less than (for example) either South Korea or Taiwan.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
I think you've been taken in by the phrase "taken in".
Right. That some of you are still defending our "refugees go away" policy - is astonishing. And it is literally "go away" - people being turned away by Border Force and told to go fill out a form back in Paris.
Bootle arguing that defence spend must go up to 4% at least after all this. I agree. If not higher imho. He says this must not come from increase in tax but from rebalancing existing public spend. Harder to do than sounds imho. I think some kind of wealth tax would be better. After all, what use is the millions in your property wealth if the country is being razed to the ground by Russians?
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
I lose track of the number of problems ‘some kind of wealth tax’ will magically solve. Paying for an ongoing 4% in defence spending wouldn’t be one of them…
It is one of the reasons that whoever wins GE24 will be facing an economic wasteland and have little scope for implementing their manifesto promises
The Lords has been like that for about the last seven hundred years.
Gilbert and Sullivan (Gilbert, really) have got most of the Lebedev angles covered
When Britain really ruled the waves-- (In good Queen Bess's time) The House of Peers made no pretence To intellectual eminence, Or scholarship sublime; Yet Britain won her proudest bays In good Queen Bess's glorious days! CHORUS Yes, Britain won, etc. LORD M. When Wellington thrashed Bonaparte, As every child can tell, The House of Peers, throughout the war, Did nothing in particular, And did it very well: Yet Britain set the world ablaze In good King George's glorious days! CHORUS Yes, Britain set, etc. LORD M. And while the House of Peers withholds Its legislative hand, And noble statesmen do not itch To interfere with matters which They do not understand, As bright will shine Great Britain's rays As in King George's glorious days!
And
He is an Englishman! For he himself has said it, And it's greatly to his credit, That he is an Englishman! ALL. That he is an Englishman! BOAT. For he might have been a Roosian, A French, or Turk, or Proosian, Or perhaps Itali-an! ALL. Or perhaps Itali-an! BOAT. But in spite of all temptations To belong to other nations, He remains an Englishman! He remains an Englishman!
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
Let's be real here: actual documented Russian aircraft losses are 10 fixed wing and 11 rotary wing.
That's not nothing, particularly the loss of the crews, but it's still not a significant loss for the VVS.
Utterly offtopic and supposedly connected to higher education only but in reality this will be true of a lot of things
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1m Just a tiny footnote in the grand scheme of things, but the only way England's university funding system could possibly work was in a world of low inflation. I'll just leave that there.
Solutions that work in a low inflation world instantly fall apart when inflation returns.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Bootle arguing that defence spend must go up to 4% at least after all this. I agree. If not higher imho. He says this must not come from increase in tax but from rebalancing existing public spend. Harder to do than sounds imho. I think some kind of wealth tax would be better. After all, what use is the millions in your property wealth if the country is being razed to the ground by Russians?
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
I lose track of the number of problems ‘some kind of wealth tax’ will magically solve. Paying for an ongoing 4% in defence spending wouldn’t be one of them…
It is one of the reasons that whoever wins GE24 will be facing an economic wasteland and have little scope for implementing their manifesto promises
I’m not quite that pessimistic, but if ever there was a time for a meaningful, long-term, thoroughgoing reform of tax policy and at the same time a hard-eyed look at what can be afforded under whatever tax policy is adopted, it would be now.
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
I think you've been taken in by the phrase "taken in".
Great to hear from someone with no agenda, utterly resistant to being taken in and only interested in hard, verifiable facts.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
That number available for fighting in Ukraine doesn't take account of those Russian planes stationed in Syria. (Always assuming they are still there.)
If backed up, the loss of 30 choppers in one action would at least mean that is 30 Stingers saved for a rainy day. Dura is taking his info from sites that require photographic evidence of losses. At the start of the invasion, there were reports of two Russian transport planes being downed. I'm not aware of any images of the crash sites being posted, but the CIA has confirmed that at least one of them was downed.
Much fog of war, but the only certainty is that Russia will never admit to but a tiny fraction of its losses - and there are plenty of Russian-supporting sites that seek to rubbish the Ukrainian claims. If I had to trust one source over the other for information, it would be Ukraine, not Russia.
Pinch of salt, obviously, but the Americans have suggested that the numbers are not far off.
Only 4 drones seems exceptionally low, unless Russia aren't using much in the way of drones in order to lose them?
Which given that much of their equipment seems to be Soviet era hand-me-downs that seems entirely possible?
Don’t think the Russians have a lot of drones in Ukraine, although it may soon be all they have left if planes and pilots keep getting shot down at the current rate.
Talking to a friend yesterday who has a Mittelstand business with subsidiaries in Russia and Ukraine. He just managed to get his Ukraine employees' families out of Ukraine (others wanted to stay and fight), he now has two families in his spare rooms. He said one of the children started crying when she heard the garbage truck because she thought it might be a tank. Of course he's writing off losses, and doesn't know if he can pay his Russian employees because of sanctions. He had thought he was doing the right thing investing in Russia, he didn't think he was supporting Putin - he believed the engagement would undermine Putin.
He is quite pessimistic about the possibility of the war expanding - he thinks it is quite likely. And doesn't trust the US to a) care if a big war happens in Europe or b) actually really fight if one happens. These views are quite common. Accelerating German rearmament (not a phrase with happy connotations!) I think is very likely from now on.
He asked me when Britain would freeze all the Russian money in London (as if I would know!), because "that would help".
Well your friend is not entirely wrong about why he invested in Russia. Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
iirc it was a general view across a lot of EU that engagement with RU, trade and cultural exchange and travel and so on would help 'soften' the Russians towards a more open, democratic mindset in long run.
Which worked as well as with China. Perhaps there is a lesson in diversification there.
What if we shifted 1/3rd of of buying cheap crap to South America, 1/3rd to India and 1/3rd to Africa? That would put the shits up the Xi 1000% more than 10 new aircraft carriers.
It would also do for South America, India and Africa what the money previously did for China - give them the ability to pull themselves up to the next level in development.
We might usefully give greater priority to manufacturing in the UK. In that respect we matter considerably less than (for example) either South Korea or Taiwan.
Steady on, suggesting on shore manufacturing might cause people to explode - very gammon idea.
Bootle arguing that defence spend must go up to 4% at least after all this. I agree. If not higher imho. He says this must not come from increase in tax but from rebalancing existing public spend. Harder to do than sounds imho. I think some kind of wealth tax would be better. After all, what use is the millions in your property wealth if the country is being razed to the ground by Russians?
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
I lose track of the number of problems ‘some kind of wealth tax’ will magically solve. Paying for an ongoing 4% in defence spending wouldn’t be one of them…
It is one of the reasons that whoever wins GE24 will be facing an economic wasteland and have little scope for implementing their manifesto promises
I’m not quite that pessimistic, but if ever there was a time for a meaningful, long-term, thoroughgoing reform of tax policy and at the same time a hard-eyed look at what can be afforded under whatever tax policy is adopted, it would be now.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
I think you've been taken in by the phrase "taken in".
Right. That some of you are still defending our "refugees go away" policy - is astonishing. And it is literally "go away" - people being turned away by Border Force and told to go fill out a form back in Paris.
The Ukrainian military has stated that its marines conducted a surprise attack on the Chernobayevka airfield outside Kherson overnight destroying 30 Russian helicopters.
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
That number available for fighting in Ukraine doesn't take account of those Russian planes stationed in Syria. (Always assuming they are still there.)
If backed up, the loss of 30 choppers in one action would at least mean that is 30 Stingers saved for a rainy day. Dura is taking his info from sites that require photographic evidence of losses. At the start of the invasion, there were reports of two Russian transport planes being downed. I'm not aware of any images of the crash sites being posted, but the CIA has confirmed that at least one of them was downed.
Much fog of war, but the only certainty is that Russia will never admit to but a tiny fraction of its losses - and there are plenty of Russian-supporting sites that seek to rubbish the Ukrainian claims. If I had to trust one source over the other for information, it would be Ukraine, not Russia.
The two IL-76 transporters remain a real mystery. I’ve still not seen any photos of them, but as you say the Amercians have confirmed the loss of at least one. They’re bloody big planes to have just disappeared!
Poland has taken in over 900,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Home Office has issued 50 visas. It’s almost impossible to believe, until you remember Priti Patel is Home Secretary and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
A government being outshone on moral leadership by the Polish one is some achievement.
I think you've been taken in by the phrase "taken in".
Great to hear from someone with no agenda, utterly resistant to being taken in and only interested in hard, verifiable facts.
The Lords has been like that for about the last seven hundred years.
Gilbert and Sullivan (Gilbert, really) have got most of the Lebedev angles covered
Indeed! G&S are the one thing even more timeless than Yes, Minister.
While George Orwell on nationalism regularly gets quoted here regarding negative nationalists, G&S got there first in The Mikado as one entry always deserving to go on 'the list':
Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone All centuries but this, and every country but his own;
[Although that particular song is rewritten every time to include topical references so I'm not sure if that lyric is actually original or not, but its been kept in every version of the song I've heard so I'm guessing so?]
Comments
The print edition of the Indy ceased in March 2016.
https://news.sky.com/story/independent-newspaper-prints-final-edition-10218799
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17864199/rishi-sunak-reverse-plans-slash-british-army/
Still merely a hobby and both my accounts have enough money to keep me going for a while.
We're currently having an extension built, single storey, approx 22.5 sqm internal area. One wall mostly glass, aprox 4m wide (bifolds), two side walls and then open to kitchen in old part of house.
We have to shortly choose between electric or hydronic underfloor heating. Difference in installation cost looks to be ~£2000 (electric cheaper) but the hydronic looks to have much cheaper running costs. The only direct comparisons I've found are on websites of companies selling hydronic systems, so clearly potential bias, but they put the difference in running costs for that kind of area at ~£400/year favouring hydronic, at 2019 prices. Now, at 2019 prices, our entire energy bill was under £900/year so I find that hard to believe, but still. Hydronic would, for now, be served from the CH boiler (2019 install, condensing combi) but could potentially come off an air source heat pump at a later point.
Any thoughts? On running costs or other pros/cons? We have electric underfloor heating (under tiles) in an upstairs bathroom and tha works well, but you can tell exactly where the mat is and is not, not an issue as where it is not is areas not normally trodden on, but those areas remain cold to touch.
https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1500751979429216264
Sanctions would be massively less effective if the Russian economy were not heavily integrated into the western economy - and it's certain that they would in that case have much closer economic ties with China. For oil production, manufacturing and finance, the reliance on the west is very great.
A much closer alliance with China seems quite likely in the future - how else will the Russian economy rebuild after this ? But it will take some years.
Sure it's a disaster for us all, but eventually for Russia above any other nation.
LEAVE Putin up shit creek by cutting Western reliance on Russian gas and oil
REMAIN under the thumb of Russia by maintaining Putin's power to turn the heating off
also has the advantage that LEAVE is a proven winner
Ex-aide to the party: “It's all very well saying that we’ve changed, but it's just ridiculous. It's too late.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-tories-russian-money-oligarch/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60640460
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1500751140329246722
...
Others attribute the lack of action over the 2020 Russia report to, at least in part, what it had to say about Brexit. Dominic Grieve, former chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee, said there was an "embarrassment" that the outcome might have been influenced by hostile actors, which fed into an unwillingness to look too closely at it.
It gives you a lift when the weather is nice like this.
https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1500727972763996176
Doesn't say much about his opinion of Tory appointments.
Of course the HoL does important stuff, and some peers are of very high calibre.
As an example, the HoL Foreign Affairs committee gave prescient warnings to ministers a year in advance of the Afghan debacle (which the Commons equivalent almost completely missed) ... and were completely ignored by this government.
And Dominic Grieve? lol..... No axe to grind there then.
I wonder if their marines are well acquainted with Hereford?
Whilst I accept that my Journalism Degree and experience working as a journalist is a little while ago, I am not making up how the industry works.
The proposition that the Russia Report has been buried, in part at least because of concerns about what it might dig up about the Brexit Referendum, is entirely credible.
20 times its previous trend level https://twitter.com/BBCDouglasF/status/1500754883737174018/photo/1
Germany is probably a country that is being one of the worst directly hit by the sanctions so far (eg 2021 exports to Russia about 6 times UK exports to Russia, similarly levels of FDI), though everywhere is going to feel it. It does feel a bit off to have some of the very same posters full of righteous indignation about Germany delaying throwing Russia out of Swift, being so very understanding about the "difficulty" of Britain quickly imposing sanctions on Russian oligarchs (their argument boils down to - the UK can't afford to because it would damage London's reputation as a place where foreign dictators and kleptocrats can stash their cash safely)
The British Army is absolutely riven by a bitter factional fight between the innovators and the traditionalists. The innovators finally gained the upper hand in about 2014 and completely upended all of the priorities by putting Mechanized Infantry ahead of Artillery and Heavy Armour - the opposite of the previously identified traditionalist procurement schedule. Ajax just managed to squeak through before the innovators could kill it. Now even though the fact that is fucked is just about the only thing everybody agrees one nobody wants to cancel because they know they won't get any more money. If they let it limp on there's always a chance the Treasury will have to bail it and General Dynamics out.
Until that conflict is resolved and one faction or the other decisively triumphs everything, from equipment procurement to force structures, is an ill-fitting compromise.
Giving them more money probably makes the problem worse at this point, TBH.
The French Army went through the same painful internal struggle about 10 years and their innovators had a decisive victory and implemented the 'Scorpion' program.
Reports like this are a regular feature.
They believed in Freedom and the right to live and work in their God-given land.
Remember they laid down their lives not only for #Ukraine, but for all of Europe!
RIP - Pilot Oleksand Oksancheko, Hero of Ukraine Major Stepan Choban, Stanislav Kovtun
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500746455023337472
What slams them now is the exploding price of road and heating fuels, gas, food and soon everything. And then there is supposedly a whopping tax rise to fund the NHS getting worse before it gets better.
Piers Morgan is one of many "i'm dead influential me" commentators demanding airstrikes and no fly zones. I don't think most normals want that - they don't want Russian airstrikes on Dudley as retaliation, and they don't want the war to completely bugger their ability to drive their car, heat their house etc.
So in answer to the question as to what the Nigel thinks he will do next and his reaction against "Net Zero 2050" I think there is a sizeable audience. Anti-war, anti-price rises, anti-woke crap (which includes green crap).
Ukraine decries 'immoral' stunt after Moscow says it will let civilians flee - to Russia
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/top-wrap-1-ukrainians-trapped-besieged-city-fighting-blocks-evacuation-efforts-2022-03-07/
In rough numbers, the Russian Air Force is losing 1% of its aircraft *per day* in this conflict - assuming that they have what they say they have in total, and they’re all serviceable, which is not going to be close.
Give it another month, and half their Air Force will have been shot down in Ukraine. Do they have a WWII-style factory, churning out new ones somewhere, because if not…
What if we shifted 1/3rd of of buying cheap crap to South America, 1/3rd to India and 1/3rd to Africa? That would put the shits up the Xi 1000% more than 10 new aircraft carriers.
It would also do for South America, India and Africa what the money previously did for China - give them the ability to pull themselves up to the next level in development.
The situation has also boosted the profile and chances of the defence secretary Ben Wallace at the expense of Sunak and Truss. Wallace also led the latest ConHome Cabinet favourable rating
That's not nothing, particularly the loss of the crews, but it's still not a significant loss for the VVS.
How much worse a situation might we be in were Russia's economy tightly integrated with that of China ?
The longer the conflict continues, the more desparate the Russians get - hence the suggestion they might bomb the power station, which is as good as a nuclear attack to the rest of the world.
"The First Brigade, Artisan Flint Knappers, struck a decisive blow today....!"
First, it will say anything to try and divide Europe, so an element of trolling.
Secondly, maybe Britain is a country that potentially could still impose some pretty painful sanctions on Putin and his mates but hasn't done so yet, and the propaganda is aimed at preventing this as far as possible.
A tax that especially hit rich Russians owning empty flats in London would be excellent.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/06/dont-need-tax-hikes-fund-army-make-cuts-elsewhere/
http://www.thegrapes.co.uk/history.php
Pretty well integrated into British life - he's lived here since he was 8 - he could be entirely above board.
But his dad was a KGB First Directorate officer.
In that respect we matter considerably less than (for example) either South Korea or Taiwan.
Pinch of salt, obviously, but the Americans have suggested that the numbers are not far off.
Which given that much of their equipment seems to be Soviet era hand-me-downs that seems entirely possible?
When Britain really ruled the waves--
(In good Queen Bess's time)
The House of Peers made no pretence
To intellectual eminence,
Or scholarship sublime;
Yet Britain won her proudest bays
In good Queen Bess's glorious days!
CHORUS
Yes, Britain won, etc.
LORD M.
When Wellington thrashed Bonaparte,
As every child can tell,
The House of Peers, throughout the war,
Did nothing in particular,
And did it very well:
Yet Britain set the world ablaze
In good King George's glorious days!
CHORUS
Yes, Britain set, etc.
LORD M.
And while the House of Peers withholds
Its legislative hand,
And noble statesmen do not itch
To interfere with matters which
They do not understand,
As bright will shine Great Britain's rays
As in King George's glorious days!
And
He is an Englishman!
For he himself has said it,
And it's greatly to his credit,
That he is an Englishman!
ALL.
That he is an Englishman!
BOAT.
For he might have been a Roosian,
A French, or Turk, or Proosian,
Or perhaps Itali-an!
ALL.
Or perhaps Itali-an!
BOAT.
But in spite of all temptations
To belong to other nations,
He remains an Englishman!
He remains an Englishman!
The figure seems to have been ten back in February (or is this page regularly updated ... edit, yes it seems to be) ?
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
·
1m
Just a tiny footnote in the grand scheme of things, but the only way England's university funding system could possibly work was in a world of low inflation. I'll just leave that there.
Solutions that work in a low inflation world instantly fall apart when inflation returns.
Unlikely to happen, to say the least…
How many visas did the UK issue over the weekend?
If backed up, the loss of 30 choppers in one action would at least mean that is 30 Stingers saved for a rainy day. Dura is taking his info from sites that require photographic evidence of losses. At the start of the invasion, there were reports of two Russian transport planes being downed. I'm not aware of any images of the crash sites being posted, but the CIA has confirmed that at least one of them was downed.
Much fog of war, but the only certainty is that Russia will never admit to but a tiny fraction of its losses - and there are plenty of Russian-supporting sites that seek to rubbish the Ukrainian claims. If I had to trust one source over the other for information, it would be Ukraine, not Russia.
While George Orwell on nationalism regularly gets quoted here regarding negative nationalists, G&S got there first in The Mikado as one entry always deserving to go on 'the list':
Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone
All centuries but this, and every country but his own;
[Although that particular song is rewritten every time to include topical references so I'm not sure if that lyric is actually original or not, but its been kept in every version of the song I've heard so I'm guessing so?]