Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
Still doesn't mean it's not an integral part of UK Labour. They do have a legal fiddle to use 'Scottish Labour' in elections but will they get that separate symbol past the Electoral Commission, I wonder?
I really doubt that the Labour rose is a substantial compliant SNP voters have about SLAB. If they do recover I can't see switching to a thistle will have much to do with it.
Not that it is a rose but it is not the Labour rose, as linked to the specific EC accounting unit.
All tumbling again now - another record low for the rouble, now lost 40% of its value in past fortnight, as US Treasury tightens Russian Central Bank sanctions…
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I think there is a great divide between what Putin and the military leadership have been told and the reality.
Meanwhile there is a whole set of people in the middle looking at reality against orders and going huh...
Must admit the idea that this some kind of trap has crossed my mind.
What the feck are they playing at?
Maybe Putin set up some kind of bizarre arrangement lacking command and control, to keep everyone in the dark - he's mad. Or maybe the top military leaders cut themselves off from it themselves. Not that much else really makes sense to me.
Footage from Melitopol, where Ukrainian civilians stop Russian military columns with their own bodies and ignore attempts to scare them by shooting in the air.
The Ukrainians are screaming “go home” to the Russians.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I think there is a great divide between what Putin and the military leadership have been told and the reality.
Meanwhile there is a whole set of people in the middle looking at reality against orders and going huh...
Must admit the idea that this some kind of trap has crossed my mind.
What the feck are they playing at?
Maybe Putin set up some kind of bizarre arrangement lacking command and control, to keep everyone in the dark - he's mad. Or maybe the top military leaders cut themselves off from it themselves. Not that much else makes sense to me.
Maybe they are more dysfunctional than No.10 during a party?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Shoulder launched weapons are one thing - but military aircraft can simply fly above them.
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I guess the issue for the Russian air force is that they will need to get close to the ground to make their bombing run and that makes them vulnerable to handheld AA. It's one thing to lose a bunch of old tanks and armoured vehicles, quite another to lose 30-40 $20m planes that will take years to replace.
And you shouldn't discount the huge boost to morale knocking out even a helicopter brings.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
11 years ago I was in Russia and they were not best please I couldn't give them exact change. In kopecs.
I think I am now right in saying there are 11,700 kopecs to the dollar. I wonder if they still keep up that practice and if so, is the kopec the lowest value currency unit currently in circulation?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I know what you mean. It is bizarre, isn't it? It's reminding me of the comments around the time of the First Gulf War - "Is this the battle harden Iraqi army? Really?"
As to the lack of knowledge and stories of units not knowing what they are supposed to do..... I recall reading in a book by one of the people who rebuilt the American Army after Vietnam that one reform was informing people up and down the chain about what they were doing and why. And contrasting it with the Red Army, where apparently, it was very much a case of "Do X", with no reason or context given.
One of the definitions of elite troops in the past - paratroopers of both sides and the SS in WW2 as examples - was their training in acting as independent commands down to the squad level. So they would be thoroughly briefed on their objectives and could operate independently if they became isolated. I believe this is a tactic that has been adopted by most modern armies since then on a wide scale. But clearly not something that is so easy to do with a predominantly conscript/national service army.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Putin promised them they would be showered with rose petals.
That column is waiting for the roses to bloom.....
More like waiting for the sunflower seeds to bloom…
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
Maybe nobody told him that his military is shit.
That's the problem of governing by utter and total lies and bullshit and reality distortion.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I like your Scots Lift World Cup scenario. I wonder when it’ll occur to FUDHY that him supporting military intervention in Scotland and voicing support for Franco and Francoist strategy might just be a teensy bit counterproductive for British Nationalism?
There is no UK team at the World Cup anyway, only English and Scottish teams. We only play as the UK at the Olympics.
Though Spain of course is still playing in the World Cup and Olympics despite banning a Catalan independence referendum as like Scotland that is an internal matter, not an invasion of a foreign country as Russia's invasion of Ukraine is
I sometimes wonder if you’re the full shilling. Do you have a diagnosis? Because if you do I am minded to desist mocking the afflicted.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I think there is a great divide between what Putin and the military leadership have been told and the reality.
Meanwhile there is a whole set of people in the middle looking at reality against orders and going huh...
Must admit the idea that this some kind of trap has crossed my mind.
What the feck are they playing at?
Maybe Putin set up some kind of bizarre arrangement lacking command and control, to keep everyone in the dark - he's mad. Or maybe the top military leaders cut themselves off from it themselves. Not that much else really makes sense to me.
I'm wondering though why the Ukr airforce isn't tearing this to pieces? Too many anti-air defence stuff? Maybe that is the nature of the trap?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
Napoleon's armies lived off the land. AKA robbing their way along.
Standard military practice up until the 19th century was to give your troops licence to plunder the locals in lieu of actual pay.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
Maybe nobody told him that his military is shit.
That's the problem of governing by utter and total lies and bullshit and reality distortion.
Remember Edward Heath telling us that the Iraqi Army would defeat the Americans?
Saddam was told a bunch of lies by his guys - though, to be fair, they were more competent than this....
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Olympics
Yep. The games would have stopped and that would have thoroughly pissed off China.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
No muddy field shall stand in the way of the will of the Tsar!
I cannot but worry that there has been a regrouping in the last few days to sort out issues, but hopefully that is not the case.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
I think the conventional explanation is correct;
Xi.
Which brings us to how this ends. China steps up to take its place as the global peacemaker?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
And there we were, thinking only a Martian invasion could achieve all that.....
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Feeds into the general narrative Putin thought it would be easy. Maybe he did think Ukrainians would welcome him and the army as liberators.
"A Member of the United Nations against which preventive or enforcement action has been taken by the Security Council may be suspended from the exercise of the rights and privileges of membership by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council. The exercise of these rights and privileges may be restored by the Security Council."
When we set up the successor to the UN, there needs to be automatic recusal when involved in a conflict.
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Yes, you may well be right.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions in the UK.
Now London is the safest region for Labour in the UK, Labour got an even higher voteshare in London in 2019 than in Wales and the Northeast.
By contrast the Tories got a lower voteshare in the SouthEast than they did in the East of England and East Midlands in 2019 and the Tories also got a higher voteshare in the West Midlands than they did in the Southwest.
The Midlands is increasingly becoming the Tories safest region after the East of England with the South becoming more of a swing region (though many Tory seats are LD targets there rather than Labour targets)
The West Midlands looks pretty solid for the Tories now overall I would say (at least compared to 2005 and outside of Birmingham and Coventry proper) with the exception of a handful marginal/semi marginal seats in Birmingham Northfield, West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Newcastle uL/Stoke on Trent. Telford and Shrewsbury maybe also are Labour long shots just about.
The route to Labour being the largest party now runs much more through the East Midlands and North, particularly Yorkshire I would say.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
Don't go that far. the UK and EU will still be squabbling over NI following this being resolved.
Senior US defence official says Russia’s advance on Kyiv has made no real progress in the last 24hrs due to fuel and supply shortages - including problems feeding their troops /1
American intelligence also assesses morale is flagging among some Russian units who weren’t told they would be involved in combat and some have surrendered in Ukraine without a fight /2
While Russian progress towards Kyiv appears to have stalled at this point, US intelligence also assesses Russian troops making progress in the south and says Russia now has control of the towns of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Feeds into the general narrative Putin thought it would be easy. Maybe he did think Ukrainians would welcome him and the army as liberators.
He's surrounded himself by yes-men who won't give him the hard truth, cut himself off from the world, and drank his own kool-aid.
Its dangerous to believe your own spin, like Brown thinking he'd abolished boom and bust, but this is even worse as it is someone launching war based on believing his own BS.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
No muddy field shall stand in the way of the will of the Tsar!
I cannot but worry that there has been a regrouping in the last few days to sort out issues, but hopefully that is not the case.
Just as likely there has been a mass of "WTF....???" conversations as soldiers walk up and down that convoy asking if anybody has a clue what they are doing.
The comms are so compromised, a few smart Russian speakers at Langley could probably convince them they have new orders: return to barracks. I'm sure the relief would be huge and they'd be revving their engines and doing a 180 in minutes....
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Feeds into the general narrative Putin thought it would be easy. Maybe he did think Ukrainians would welcome him and the army as liberators.
The Beijing Olympics - it would have p1ssed off Xi massively.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I like your Scots Lift World Cup scenario. I wonder when it’ll occur to FUDHY that him supporting military intervention in Scotland and voicing support for Franco and Francoist strategy might just be a teensy bit counterproductive for British Nationalism?
There is no UK team at the World Cup anyway, only English and Scottish teams. We only play as the UK at the Olympics.
Though Spain of course is still playing in the World Cup and Olympics despite banning a Catalan independence referendum as like Scotland that is an internal matter, not an invasion of a foreign country as Russia's invasion of Ukraine is
I sometimes wonder if you’re the full shilling. Do you have a diagnosis? Because if you do I am minded to desist mocking the afflicted.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
Check the bio. Current Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov is one of the best and first private lawyers in the country. In 2000s his firm was named the best law firm in Russia and the CIS by a British financial magazine. He could be elsewhere. Today in Kyiv at MOD HQ https://twitter.com/ngumenyuk/status/1498675580946071555
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
No, it doesn't.
Which is why the entire west, regardless of how they acted with Iraq, is now united.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
Don't go that far. the UK and EU will still be squabbling over NI following this being resolved.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
No, it doesn't.
Which is why the entire west, regardless of how they acted with Iraq, is now united.
You're misunderstanding, though. It discredits it abroad.
The middle east and parts of South America are full of references to Iraq during this crisis.
@ServiceSsu reports that Russia is going to disseminate disinformation that the Ukrainian leadership and government allegedly surrendered the country. The goal of the info operation will be to sow panic, despair of citizens and persuade our troops to surrender," SBU says. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498672599378894856
The ex street thug and his army of Twitter trolls are losing the information war.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate democratic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
So, fantasy author Brandon Sanderson wrote five novels in secret since 2020 in addition to his already scheduled writing work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a-k6eaT-jQ If George RR Martin had half his work ethic he'd have actually finished A Song of Ice and Fire by now, let alone the sixth book.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
Feeds into the general narrative Putin thought it would be easy. Maybe he did think Ukrainians would welcome him and the army as liberators.
It is the simplest explanation. He has made mistake of believing his own propaganda.
@SouthAsiaIndex Russia to invite Pakistan, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, India, Ethiopia & other countries in "Anti Fascist Conference."
■ Grand Conference aims at combating fascism, to be held in Moscow in coming months.
Plug to be pulled on Russia Today and Sputnik across Europe. Will also disappear from Sky and Freeview platforms in UK. All in line with sanctions, satellite service company in Luxembourg, SES, confirmed. https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1498675816670105605
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Shoulder launched weapons are one thing - but military aircraft can simply fly above them.
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I guess the issue for the Russian air force is that they will need to get close to the ground to make their bombing run and that makes them vulnerable to handheld AA. It's one thing to lose a bunch of old tanks and armoured vehicles, quite another to lose 30-40 $20m planes that will take years to replace.
And you shouldn't discount the huge boost to morale knocking out even a helicopter brings.
The Ukrainians must be delighted with how their defence has gone so far.
That is one of the tragedies. Most decent people want Russia to lose, and we can't help hoping that Putin gets a good kicking but that is also going to mean that lots of families will lose their young men on both sides and that really makes me want to weep.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
In the same respect as when people (rightly) say this action by Putin not only causes immediate obvious carnage, it also poisons the geopolitical environment, setting a precedent, a bad one.
@SouthAsiaIndex Russia to invite Pakistan, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, India, Ethiopia & other countries in "Anti Fascist Conference."
■ Grand Conference aims at combating fascism, to be held in Moscow in coming months.
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Yes, you may well be right.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions in the UK.
Now London is the safest region for Labour in the UK, Labour got an even higher voteshare in London in 2019 than in Wales and the Northeast.
By contrast the Tories got a lower voteshare in the SouthEast than they did in the East of England and East Midlands in 2019 and the Tories also got a higher voteshare in the West Midlands than they did in the Southwest.
The Midlands is increasingly becoming the Tories safest region after the East of England with the South becoming more of a swing region (though many Tory seats are LD targets there rather than Labour targets)
The West Midlands looks pretty solid for the Tories now overall I would say (at least compared to 2005 and outside of Birmingham and Coventry proper) with the exception of a handful marginal/semi marginal seats in Birmingham Northfield, West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Newcastle uL/Stoke on Trent. Telford and Shrewsbury maybe also are Labour long shots just about.
The route to Labour being the largest party now runs much more through the East Midlands and North, particularly Yorkshire I would say.
I think Labour will pick up Worcester at the next election. It's not a typical West Midlands seat in the way Redditch or Nuneaton is.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
I wonder if he has ever even been to Lincolnshire. After all he is only an MP for the place. I am not sure I have actually ever met a Ukrainian here. Sure they must be here by the idea the county is full of them is bloody stupid.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
Are you a bit happier with the location of Germany's 'soul' now?
Senior US defence official says Russia’s advance on Kyiv has made no real progress in the last 24hrs due to fuel and supply shortages - including problems feeding their troops /1
American intelligence also assesses morale is flagging among some Russian units who weren’t told they would be involved in combat and some have surrendered in Ukraine without a fight /2
While Russian progress towards Kyiv appears to have stalled at this point, US intelligence also assesses Russian troops making progress in the south and says Russia now has control of the towns of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Cold weather, no sleep, no food, rationing fuel, long way from home with no idea why you’re there…
There’s a crucial difference between this army and the Red Army of old. And indeed Hitler’s army. There’s no coherent central ideology binding together the fighting force and giving them a sense of purpose and motivation to suffer extreme hardship. Goodo.
So, fantasy author Brandon Sanderson wrote five novels in secret since 2020 in addition to his already scheduled writing work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a-k6eaT-jQ If George RR Martin had half his work ethic he'd have actually finished A Song of Ice and Fire by now, let alone the sixth book.
Sanderson is a writing machine, even his little side projects are often 400 pages. Craziest thing is they are also usually still good.
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Yes, you may well be right.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions in the UK.
Now London is the safest region for Labour in the UK, Labour got an even higher voteshare in London in 2019 than in Wales and the Northeast.
By contrast the Tories got a lower voteshare in the SouthEast than they did in the East of England and East Midlands in 2019 and the Tories also got a higher voteshare in the West Midlands than they did in the Southwest.
The Midlands is increasingly becoming the Tories safest region after the East of England with the South becoming more of a swing region (though many Tory seats are LD targets there rather than Labour targets)
The West Midlands looks pretty solid for the Tories now overall I would say (at least compared to 2005 and outside of Birmingham and Coventry proper) with the exception of a handful marginal/semi marginal seats in Birmingham Northfield, West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Newcastle uL/Stoke on Trent. Telford and Shrewsbury maybe also are Labour long shots just about.
The route to Labour being the largest party now runs much more through the East Midlands and North, particularly Yorkshire I would say.
Plus London eg Barnet, Kensington, Uxbridge, Chingford and Woodford Green and the redwall seats they lost in 2019 in the Northeast and Northwest as well.
Some seats in the South are also Labour targets not LD eg in Milton Keynes, Reading West, Southampton Itchen, Worthing East and Shoteham, Wycombe, Watford, Hastings and Plymouth
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
Plug to be pulled on Russia Today and Sputnik across Europe. Will also disappear from Sky and Freeview platforms in UK. All in line with sanctions, satellite service company in Luxembourg, SES, confirmed. https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1498675816670105605
Should never have got one of the limited freeview slots in the first place. If they want to peddle misinformation let them do it online but not through partially state funded platforms.
I wonder if he has ever even been to Lincolnshire. After all he is only an MP for the place. I am not sure I have actually ever met a Ukrainian here. Sure they must be here by the idea the county is full of them is bloody stupid.
Is the farming elite (very Tory) not rather dependent on them already? Tractors in Ukrainian and all that.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
Who gives a fuck what Latin America thinks?
People who live there, trade with them, have friends or family there, or just people with a global mindset?
One of the weird things about this invasion is the timing. If it it had been done a few weeks ago, the ground would have been frozen, so they wouldn't be getting bogged down in mud, and the stranglehold on EU gas supplies more effective.
I think the conventional explanation is correct;
Xi.
Which brings us to how this ends. China steps up to take its place as the global peacemaker?
@SouthAsiaIndex Russia to invite Pakistan, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, India, Ethiopia & other countries in "Anti Fascist Conference."
■ Grand Conference aims at combating fascism, to be held in Moscow in coming months.
A rather desperate attempt to draw up the boundaries of a new Cold War, with a rather glaring drawback - the Soviet Union purportedly at least had its own driving ideology, not some vague committment against supposed fascism. How can even those friendly to Russia commit to such a cold war attempt when Russia is doign a poor job of extrapolating its personal war in Ukraine with global concerns?
Senior US defence official says Russia’s advance on Kyiv has made no real progress in the last 24hrs due to fuel and supply shortages - including problems feeding their troops /1
American intelligence also assesses morale is flagging among some Russian units who weren’t told they would be involved in combat and some have surrendered in Ukraine without a fight /2
While Russian progress towards Kyiv appears to have stalled at this point, US intelligence also assesses Russian troops making progress in the south and says Russia now has control of the towns of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Cold weather, no sleep, no food, rationing fuel, long way from home with no idea why you’re there…
There’s a crucial difference between this army and the Red Army of old. And indeed Hitler’s army. There’s no coherent central ideology binding together the fighting force and giving them a sense of purpose and motivation to suffer extreme hardship. Goodo.
Yes ; there was very a good article in the Guardian today from a Russian who had travelled abroad. Essentially it said that there is no coherent values system in Russia at the moment, only an us-and-them. That can be very intimidating - until it's not, because it's also not very deep-rooted , and very fragile.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
He's also: - Destroying the Russian economy - Rebuilding the Western alliance - Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia - Encouraging more countries to join NATO - Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU - Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
Don't go that far. the UK and EU will still be squabbling over NI following this being resolved.
I hope not
What I want to happen and what I think will happen are not always the same thing. (especially when Norwich take on Liverpool tomorrow night)
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been saying it for days but its absolutely true, it doesn't matter how "big and powerful" your military is, logistics are key to wars.
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
Are you a bit happier with the location of Germany's 'soul' now?
Yes. Very much happier. 👍
I've given credit to Germany repeatedly since they u-turned.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
And perhaps because people like yourself in this country parrot it too. You said Putin can "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" which is total bollox and needs to be called out as such. Iraq was a terrible misadventure, but the fact was that the US had been attacked and the thinking at the time (before hindsight came into it) was that dictators like Saddam shouldn't be appeased when they could and would provide sanctuary to terrorists and would help fund them. No serious commentator thought he had no WMDs, and neither did Western governments. It was a failure of intel that overstated his threat, but anyone who suggests he did not pose a threat is an ignoramus. The Iraq war is in no way an excuse or moral cover for Putin's aggression unless you are a Putin apologist because there is no equivalence.
Senior US defence official says Russia’s advance on Kyiv has made no real progress in the last 24hrs due to fuel and supply shortages - including problems feeding their troops /1
American intelligence also assesses morale is flagging among some Russian units who weren’t told they would be involved in combat and some have surrendered in Ukraine without a fight /2
While Russian progress towards Kyiv appears to have stalled at this point, US intelligence also assesses Russian troops making progress in the south and says Russia now has control of the towns of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Cold weather, no sleep, no food, rationing fuel, long way from home with no idea why you’re there…
There’s a crucial difference between this army and the Red Army of old. And indeed Hitler’s army. There’s no coherent central ideology binding together the fighting force and giving them a sense of purpose and motivation to suffer extreme hardship. Goodo.
Yes ; there was very a good article in the Guardian today from a Russian who had travelled abroad. Essentially it said that there is no coherent values system in Russia at the moment, only an us-and-them. That can be very intimidating - until it's not, because it's also not very deep-rooted , and very fragile.
The shitty trouble is that when it becomes clear to Putin that his military is not up to it, he will go nuclear. Fiona Hill, US RU expert analyst, has told the Telegraph that we mustn't think he will go that far - he will do it.
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
Exactly. It is a global audience this plays out to not just a western one.
Who gives a fuck what Latin America thinks?
People who live there, trade with them, have friends or family there, or just people with a global mindset?
What a bizarre question.
Not really. It's not Latin America that the people of Ukraine are begging for help, is it?
It’s times like this I really fucking despise Bush and Blair for Iraq.
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
That's a very good point. An exact equivalence isn't quite there but 'moral authority' does count for something and that cost 'us' lots of it.
In what respect? Putin doesn't give a shit about Iraq. The limiting factor in our willingness to intervene is not people marching on Trafalgar Square opposing another foreign military adventure.
It's not that he gives a shit. It's that it gives his army of trolls perfect material 24 hours a day, and discredits the west every time it tries to claim any position of moral values.
If you believe that Putin, a murderous despot with an appalling record of human rights, is able to "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" then clearly his army of trolls are pretty effective on people like you I guess?
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate demographic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
Where on earth did I draw an equivalence ? Have you looked at the media in the arab world and latin america ? it's full of people drawing an equivalence, because Iraq gave them that ammunition.
And perhaps because people like yourself in this country parrot it too. You said Putin can "discredit the west *every time* it tries to claim any position of values" which is total bollox and needs to be called out as such. Iraq was a terrible misadventure, but the fact was that the US had been attacked and the thinking at the time (before hindsight came into it) was that dictators like Saddam shouldn't be appeased when they could and would provide sanctuary to terrorists and would help fund them. No serious commentator thought he had no WMDs, and neither did Western governments. It was a failure of intel that overstated his threat, but anyone who suggests he did not pose a threat is an ignoramus. The Iraq war is in no way an excuse or moral cover for Putin's aggression unless you are a Putin apologist because there is no equivalence.
This is just abusive, emotional rubbish. You can't be silenced for pointing out what the view happens to be elsewhere, for being a "Putin apologist" or "people like you".
I've also stressed about a hundred times during this crisis, that although these things should be understood, they are *not* the priority at the moment.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
Isn't "with us or against us wankerism" the philosophical basis for Scottish Nationalism?
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast
Always irritated me, that. Annoyingly untidy.
Anyway, even without Kaliningrad, they could presumably launch an attack from Belarus.
Sberbank has lost 97% of its value on London listing in past fortnight, Gazprom down 92% in London https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498703809673060367/photo/1
Mr @oryxspioenkop says there are 5, but we couldn't find all of them!
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1498703506898919429
The Ukrainians are screaming “go home” to the Russians.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498705183668379654
Has the NHS rise been settled yet?
If you can't feed your army, if you can't pay your army, then you can't win your war.
This is disaster revealing that Russia is not the world power people thought they were. Putin hasn't just united the West, and rebuilt NATO at speed - he's revealed to the world just how decrepit and uninspiring his military actually is. Or what will be left of it, when this invasion is over.
I think I am now right in saying there are 11,700 kopecs to the dollar. I wonder if they still keep up that practice and if so, is the kopec the lowest value currency unit currently in circulation?
That's the problem of governing by utter and total lies and bullshit and reality distortion.
- Destroying the Russian economy
- Rebuilding the Western alliance
- Doubling Germany's defence budget and turning them away from Russia
- Encouraging more countries to join NATO
- Turning Ukraine permanently against Russia and into the arms of the EU
- Resolving the conflict between UK & EU following Brexit! (who thought that was possible?!)
More Boris Johnson praise for Zelensky
"[He] is an incredible guy and he's got fantastic natural resilience, and he's a charming guy…
"I'm lost in admiration of his ability to connect with people around the world."
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498707306179145732
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1498701095677448192
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1498697932060729350
Update: Canada will ban Russian ships from entering its ports and territorial waters, and the ban will go into effect this week.
https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1498706712634789889?s=20&t=yrkGoIqIJxBKgbfuZVHIkg
https://twitter.com/405thAFSB/status/1498678607383875586?t=61Wv50_xVHVZ3jemHMKSaA&s=19
Saddam was told a bunch of lies by his guys - though, to be fair, they were more competent than this....
I cannot but worry that there has been a regrouping in the last few days to sort out issues, but hopefully that is not the case.
That said, it’s a minor move in the right direction (checks calendar… the first of… March! Phew!)
Xi.
Which brings us to how this ends. China steps up to take its place as the global peacemaker?
Ukraine as the 21st century Suez.
You heard it here first.
You can see it starting to have an effect in the polls, with elections next month:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Serbian_general_election
If he balls this up, it will be one of the biggest campaigning swings on record. Unclear if he will accept defeat, however.
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1498708434644090885
The route to Labour being the largest party now runs much more through the East Midlands and North, particularly Yorkshire I would say.
American intelligence also assesses morale is flagging among some Russian units who weren’t told they would be involved in combat and some have surrendered in Ukraine without a fight /2
While Russian progress towards Kyiv appears to have stalled at this point, US intelligence also assesses Russian troops making progress in the south and says Russia now has control of the towns of Melitopol and Berdyansk.
https://twitter.com/sallylockwood/status/1498709462240092172
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1498708434644090885
One of them doesn't even look 18. I imagine that no PoWs look happy but they don't look like the troops that are going to win this war for Russia.
Its dangerous to believe your own spin, like Brown thinking he'd abolished boom and bust, but this is even worse as it is someone launching war based on believing his own BS.
The comms are so compromised, a few smart Russian speakers at Langley could probably convince them they have new orders: return to barracks. I'm sure the relief would be huge and they'd be revving their engines and doing a 180 in minutes....
Check the bio. Current Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov is one of the best and first private lawyers in the country. In 2000s his firm was named the best law firm in Russia and the CIS by a British financial magazine. He could be elsewhere. Today in Kyiv at MOD HQ
https://twitter.com/ngumenyuk/status/1498675580946071555
Which is why the entire west, regardless of how they acted with Iraq, is now united.
He says in Lincolnshire "we've done our bit with migration from Eastern Europe" https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1498697473216421893/video/1
The middle east and parts of South America are full of references to Iraq during this crisis.
@ServiceSsu reports that Russia is going to disseminate disinformation that the Ukrainian leadership and government allegedly surrendered the country. The goal of the info operation will be to sow panic, despair of citizens and persuade our troops to surrender," SBU says.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1498672599378894856
The ex street thug and his army of Twitter trolls are losing the information war.
Iraq was a mistake, but to try and draw equivalence between Saddam Hussein and the legitimate democratic government of Ukraine is a bit fucking outrageous IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a-k6eaT-jQ
If George RR Martin had half his work ethic he'd have actually finished A Song of Ice and Fire by now, let alone the sixth book.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563533/US-Europe-paying-Kremlin-1BILLION-DAY-oil-gas.html
@SouthAsiaIndex
Russia to invite Pakistan, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, India, Ethiopia & other countries in "Anti Fascist Conference."
■ Grand Conference aims at combating fascism, to be held in Moscow in coming months.
https://twitter.com/SouthAsiaIndex/status/1498607419387445249
There’s a crucial difference between this army and the Red Army of old. And indeed Hitler’s army. There’s no coherent central ideology binding together the fighting force and giving them a sense of purpose and motivation to suffer extreme hardship. Goodo.
Some seats in the South are also Labour targets not LD eg in Milton Keynes, Reading West, Southampton Itchen, Worthing East and Shoteham, Wycombe, Watford, Hastings and Plymouth
What a bizarre question.
@JimmySecUK
One of Russia's extremely nasty TOS-1 'Buratino' thermobaric MLRS systems has seemingly been abandoned and captured by Ukrainian forces.🇺🇦
Very welcome news - each one of these vehicles removed from the battlefield could save hundreds of civilian lives.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1498703328666165254
I've given credit to Germany repeatedly since they u-turned.
I am extraordinarily pessimistic at the moment.
I've also stressed about a hundred times during this crisis, that although these things should be understood, they are *not* the priority at the moment.