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A Ukraine boost for Johnson in the exit date betting? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    edited March 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.

    Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?

    Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
    Not relevant. The EU was never exerting sovereignty over the UK.
    FFS! The UK has NOT "exerted" sovereignty over Scotland. Scotland IS the UK, is fully part of it and voted to remain part of it by democratic majority in 2014. You will not answer the question because you know the rationality of my question. IN other words you, and Scottish Nationalists in general want to keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. If you were to get it you would exert every sinew to ensure that the vote was not offered again. Very Putinesque.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762
    I'm wary of my biases on this war. I *really* want plucky Ukraine to win, and so does most of the western media I read. Therefore I may be seeing much of the smaller victories of Ukraine, and less of any larger victories for Russia. It might be things are actually going well for Russia, or according to some weird plan.

    But here's a thought: what happens if Putin, in seclusion somewhere safe, is not getting the full story from his generals on the front line? What if he's like Hitler in his bunker (*) as the Russians approached Berlin, issuing orders that had little reality to the situation on the ground?

    How much of this battle is being driven from Moscow/the leadership, and how much by officers near the front?

    (*) He's love that comparison
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,745
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    Any true Scottish democrat should understand it's for BJ and his ilk to decide when Scotland has another referendum. We would be better concentrating our efforts on listening to BJ's sermons on democracy in freedom loving Ukraine.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,128

    What we are not seeing, as we have before, is Labour's score dropping at all, they are up and around the 38-40 mark, i.e. 2017 levels.

    .....yet..... In politics as in life nothing is inevitable. If the last 2 years haven't made that crystal clear I don't know what does.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,969
    DougSeal said:

    stjohn said:

    Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.

    Well done!

    A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.

    A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.

    Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.

    Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
    I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
    There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,525
    kinabalu said:

    Yes they well and truly flunked it. For all the bellicosity of some of them now if the Ukrainian resistance comprised mainly of Tory MPs it would have been all over on day one.

    Ukrainian MPs picked up machine guns

    Tory MPs won't pick up a pen
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,096
    edited March 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.

    Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?

    Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
    Not relevant. The EU was never exerting sovereignty over the UK.
    FFS! The UK has NOT "exerted" sovereignty over Scotland. Scotland IS the UK, is fully part of it and voted to remain part of it by democratic majority in 2014. You will not answer the question because you know the rationality of my question. IN other words you, and Scottish Nationalists in general want to keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. If you were to get it you would exert every sinew to ensure that the vote was not offered again. Very Putinesque.
    What else is the abandonment of the Sewell convention?

    Given the massive changes since 2014 and the votes in Westminster AND Holyrood for pro-referendum parties, what else is the refusal of a referendum but exerting sovereignty, or at least the London notion of sovereignty?

    And your partitionist fantasies are in particularly bad taste at present.

    PS: I have to go and do some work, so you shouldn't bother replying (will save your energies for the other news, seriously).
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    Any true Scottish democrat should understand it's for BJ and his ilk to decide when Scotland has another referendum. We would be better concentrating our efforts on listening to BJ's sermons on democracy in freedom loving Ukraine.
    Your countrymen/women voted not to have another one in 2014. The fat little man that used to be your beloved leader (you know the presenter for Putin's propaganda channel and he that was referred to as a "bully and a sex pest by his QC), said it was "once in a generation" . You will try and Putinise what "once in a generation" means I am sure, but most people knew what it meant, and your side lost.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571

    It’s easy for people to call on the aggressors to stop war but true anti-war activism means putting pressure on your *own* country to take radical and urgent steps that are essential to end the war.

    #1) restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn -

    https://twitter.com/DawnNute/status/1498666403200741383

    Is that genuine?! The self satisfaction and misdirected priorities is spot on.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,649
    edited March 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Russian Govt sources now talking about “considerable losses” in Moscow for the first time
    https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1498643916228280323

    If they're talking about it in Moscow then it must already be common knowledge there.

    If they have considerable losses in Moscow, the Ukrainians are really punching a hole through the Red Army!
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,505
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.

    Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?

    Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
    Not relevant. The EU was never exerting sovereignty over the UK.
    FFS! The UK has NOT "exerted" sovereignty over Scotland. Scotland IS the UK, is fully part of it and voted to remain part of it by democratic majority in 2014. You will not answer the question because you know the rationality of my question. IN other words you, and Scottish Nationalists in general want to keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. If you were to get it you would exert every sinew to ensure that the vote was not offered again. Very Putinesque.
    What else is the abandonment of the Sewell convention?

    Given the massive changes since 2014 and the votes in Westminster AND Holyrood for pro-referendum parties, what else is the refusal of a referendum but exerting sovereignty, or at least the London notion of sovereignty?

    And your partitionist fantasies are in particularly bad taste at present.
    If you're looking for bad taste, look no further:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19960324.snp-president-michael-russell-utterly-crass-linking-ukrainian-struggle-scottish-independence/

    "THE SNP president Michael Russell has been accused of an “utterly crass” attempt to link the Ukrainian struggle against Russia with the pursuit of Scottish independence.

    "Writing about the invasion and crisis in Ukraine, he said the past need not dictate the future, “whether that be rule from Moscow, or the result of an eight-year-old referendum”.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    kle4 said:

    Johnson is clearly safe until 2023 now. Bizarre that anybody thinks otherwise.

    Boris was safe the moment all those Tory MPs did their 'Let's wait for the Sue Gray report' wibble. Thereafter Boris had the space to cement the spin and nobble the waverers. Operation Save Big Dog worked like a charm.
    This hits the nail on the head. Its easier to not act. They sought an excuse, it bought time and it worked.
    I've often thought in political betting it's generally better to bet that nothing will happen*. Not something I've actually followed much in the past, but I did with Johnson and it looks like it's going to pay off for me.

    *this doesn't apply recently in by-elections where, quite often, something has happened. But of the X to be gone by Y type bets there's often overestimation of the likelihood of it happening. Just because someone should, does not mean they will.
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    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498664219692212226

    At least 5 new Russian supply convoys hit today. Logistics are hard at the best of times, when you've unexpectedly launched a war and haven't got any semblance of control over the resupply routes it's even harder, as they're finding out.

    That's grim. The first properly dead body I've seen in this war. Even though he's Russian: poor young man.

    "And far away behind their lines the partisans are stirring in the forest
    Coming unexpectedly upon their outposts, growing like a promise
    You'll never know, you'll never know which way to turn, which way to look you'll never see us
    As we're stealing through the blackness of the night
    You'll never know, you'll never hear us"

    Written about a different war, facing a different enemy, on the same land.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,024
    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    I reckon it is a traffic jam, not a column. All it takes is a couple of breakdowns.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,505

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    Any true Scottish democrat should understand it's for BJ and his ilk to decide when Scotland has another referendum. We would be better concentrating our efforts on listening to BJ's sermons on democracy in freedom loving Ukraine.
    Ah, good. We seem to be getting somewhere, at last.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,716
    edited March 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Russian Govt sources now talking about “considerable losses” in Moscow for the first time
    https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1498643916228280323

    If they're talking about it in Moscow then it must already be common knowledge there.

    That is importantly good news. We're not all finished yet.
  • Options
    Off topic, but when will Weaver just go away?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60374800
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Unlike the Iraqis in the Gulf War however, the Russians know US, UK and French jets won't bomb their convoy in Ukraine
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,925

    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480

    One step back from the precipice of nuclear war.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644

    mwadams said:

    Still keeping track of the at times quite frank Russia Today website (before it's banned), and see a piece by what appears to be a senior politician/commentator, describing the invasion in detached terms as an extremely drastic operation undertaken by the leadership which will lead to prolonged isolation.:

    "The Russian leadership, which decided on extremely drastic steps, probably understood the consequences, or even consciously aspired to them. The page of cooperation with the West has been turned. This does not mean that isolationism will become the norm, but it does mark the end of an important historical chapter in political relations. The new Cold War will not end quickly."

    He notably refrains from endorsing it. If that's typical of senior Russian observers, it does suggest that Putin will not be kept in office if the invasion is seen to fail.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/550873-ukraine-action-end-era/

    "On one side, there is the exercise of classic hard power, which is guided by simple, unpolished, but plainly understandable principles – blood and soil. Meanwhile, on the other is a modern method of propagating interests and influence, realized through a set of ideological, communicative, and economic tools, which are effective and, at the same time, malleable – commonly referred to as ‘values’."

    That is an extraordinary statement to be made on RT by the "chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy".

    It specifically casts the (current) Russian leadership as "not modern", and "not effective" (by inference).
    RT - the official voice of Russia - endorsing "blood and soil" nationalism.

    There is, incidentally, a very similar passage in Mein Kampf or the second book damning League Of Nations style values vs "blood and soil" nationalism.
    *off topic, but then the topic isn’t omg WWIII

    What are battlefield nuclear weapons? Is it just the same as big nuclear weapons only designed to make smaller bang considering your own people on the battlefield

    Are depleted uranium shells we used in Iraq that made many of our own service people ill classed as battlefield nuclear weapon?
    No.

    Battlefield nukes (tactical nukes) are low-yield weapons designed to punch a small hole in enemy formations. The US even had one, the Davy Crockett, with a yield of just 20 tonnes of TNT. I wouldn't have liked to fire it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device)

    I think it was basically superseded by powerful conventional weapons or bombs, such as MOAB.
    In a way...

    At low yields nuclear weapons are primarily radiation generators. The Davy Crockett warhead had very little explosive in it - so lots of gammas and neutrons escape. More than half the yield of the Davy Crockett was radiation.

    Neutrons are good at killing people inside metal boxes - tanks.

    Which is why the Soviets spent so much effort on lining tanks with plastic (which stops neutrons) and doing things like putting fuel tanks in doors (diesel fuel stops neutrons nicely)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    It is also interesting that France overtaking the UK for fifth place was covered everywhere by the Remainer press, but when the UK retook its place no-ome mentioned it.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,374
    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    Depends on the grounds. I was surprised to hear someone mention earlier today that there is actually a procedure in place to do this. But I got the impression it was based on the country having waged unprovoked war. So I am not sure it would set any precedent for further change.

    That said I am not sure what benefit it serves. Even if Russia were prevented from vetoing resolutions we all know that UN resolutions are pretty toothless anyway.

    Further I can't see China going along with it even if they are lukewarm towards Russia as they might worry they would be on the receiving end later on when they attack Taiwan.

    Lots of reasons why I don't think this will happen but none of them relate to the UK.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,988

    Off topic, but when will Weaver just go away?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60374800

    My mother-in-law has come across JW professionally. Her views on her were characteristically terse.
    I also know people who know some of the shoutier characters from that debacle. Sympathy is short on that side too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Impossible as Russia would veto it.

    That is rather the point of the UN Security Council
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Appears Russians are now abandoning Tor air defense systems. These are some of their most advanced and capable systems. Very strange.
    https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498660951100379142

    No idea if this is genuine or not but fits with the pattern of there being serious Russian logistical challenges.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.

    Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?

    Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
    Not relevant. The EU was never exerting sovereignty over the UK.
    FFS! The UK has NOT "exerted" sovereignty over Scotland. Scotland IS the UK, is fully part of it and voted to remain part of it by democratic majority in 2014. You will not answer the question because you know the rationality of my question. IN other words you, and Scottish Nationalists in general want to keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. If you were to get it you would exert every sinew to ensure that the vote was not offered again. Very Putinesque.
    What else is the abandonment of the Sewell convention?

    Given the massive changes since 2014 and the votes in Westminster AND Holyrood for pro-referendum parties, what else is the refusal of a referendum but exerting sovereignty, or at least the London notion of sovereignty?

    And your partitionist fantasies are in particularly bad taste at present.

    PS: I have to go and do some work, so you shouldn't bother replying (will save your energies for the other news, seriously).
    In case you are still looking (I bet you are) I am giggling at a Scottish Nationalist talking of "partitionist fantasies". Separatism is another area it seems where it has to be the "right type" of separatism!
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    darkage said:

    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480

    One step back from the precipice of nuclear war.
    I think not.
    Putin will not need any justifiable reason if he decides to go nuclear.
    It will be his rational (in his mind) decision.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,716
    edited March 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Appears Russians are now abandoning Tor air defense systems. These are some of their most advanced and capable systems. Very strange.
    https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498660951100379142

    No idea if this is genuine or not but fits with the pattern of there being serious Russian logistical challenges.

    Challenges ? I think it's in line with the pictures of there being some very peculiar issues in the command centre , somewhere.
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    FossFoss Posts: 703
    AlistairM said:

    Appears Russians are now abandoning Tor air defense systems. These are some of their most advanced and capable systems. Very strange.
    https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498660951100379142

    No idea if this is genuine or not but fits with the pattern of there being serious Russian logistical challenges.

    The CIA men with their shopping lists are going to be very happy with some of this stuff.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,374

    mwadams said:

    Still keeping track of the at times quite frank Russia Today website (before it's banned), and see a piece by what appears to be a senior politician/commentator, describing the invasion in detached terms as an extremely drastic operation undertaken by the leadership which will lead to prolonged isolation.:

    "The Russian leadership, which decided on extremely drastic steps, probably understood the consequences, or even consciously aspired to them. The page of cooperation with the West has been turned. This does not mean that isolationism will become the norm, but it does mark the end of an important historical chapter in political relations. The new Cold War will not end quickly."

    He notably refrains from endorsing it. If that's typical of senior Russian observers, it does suggest that Putin will not be kept in office if the invasion is seen to fail.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/550873-ukraine-action-end-era/

    "On one side, there is the exercise of classic hard power, which is guided by simple, unpolished, but plainly understandable principles – blood and soil. Meanwhile, on the other is a modern method of propagating interests and influence, realized through a set of ideological, communicative, and economic tools, which are effective and, at the same time, malleable – commonly referred to as ‘values’."

    That is an extraordinary statement to be made on RT by the "chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy".

    It specifically casts the (current) Russian leadership as "not modern", and "not effective" (by inference).
    RT - the official voice of Russia - endorsing "blood and soil" nationalism.

    There is, incidentally, a very similar passage in Mein Kampf or the second book damning League Of Nations style values vs "blood and soil" nationalism.
    *off topic, but then the topic isn’t omg WWIII

    What are battlefield nuclear weapons? Is it just the same as big nuclear weapons only designed to make smaller bang considering your own people on the battlefield

    Are depleted uranium shells we used in Iraq that made many of our own service people ill classed as battlefield nuclear weapon?
    No.

    Battlefield nukes (tactical nukes) are low-yield weapons designed to punch a small hole in enemy formations. The US even had one, the Davy Crockett, with a yield of just 20 tonnes of TNT. I wouldn't have liked to fire it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device)

    I think it was basically superseded by powerful conventional weapons or bombs, such as MOAB.
    In a way...

    At low yields nuclear weapons are primarily radiation generators. The Davy Crockett warhead had very little explosive in it - so lots of gammas and neutrons escape. More than half the yield of the Davy Crockett was radiation.

    Neutrons are good at killing people inside metal boxes - tanks.

    Which is why the Soviets spent so much effort on lining tanks with plastic (which stops neutrons) and doing things like putting fuel tanks in doors (diesel fuel stops neutrons nicely)
    Though it did have the effect of turning the BMP1s into death traps in places like Afghanistan when the only means of escape for the troops inside was through the doors which were the source of the fire/explosion.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    Because Japan has been committed to pacifism historically but that mentality is undergoing change. Also, real power is determined by the economic base of a country, which is needed to sustain a military. Japan's economy is three times larger than Russia. And India's GDP is 50% larger than Russia and growing faster.

    How strange it is that you are peddling pro-Russian lies.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    Aslan said:

    It is also interesting that France overtaking the UK for fifth place was covered everywhere by the Remainer press, but when the UK retook its place no-ome mentioned it.

    Fuck me, I never realised there was a "remainer press". When I figure out my product or service to sell to the gullible via social media, can I put you down as a "possible" as a follower?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571
    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    I mean more that once a permanent member is removed for any reason, the debate on removing them all, or some increases, rationally or not.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571
    darkage said:

    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480

    One step back from the precipice of nuclear war.
    A warning shot across the bows.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    It's shockingly stupid to believe any of Russia's official military statistics after the last few days.
    Most of the Russian military has not even got to Kyiv yet, hence the 40 mile convoy of Russian tanks and troops now heading to the Ukranian capital.

    The battle for Kyiv has barely begun
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,745

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    Any true Scottish democrat should understand it's for BJ and his ilk to decide when Scotland has another referendum. We would be better concentrating our efforts on listening to BJ's sermons on democracy in freedom loving Ukraine.
    Ah, good. We seem to be getting somewhere, at last.
    Visualise a fridge if you will, locked from the inside. A bellow emanates from it, muffled but still the recognisably orotund tones of BJ, the pm you lot are too cowardly to depose. 'Just let me at Sturgeon and the Nats' he roars.

    You deserve each other.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    AlistairM said:

    Appears Russians are now abandoning Tor air defense systems. These are some of their most advanced and capable systems. Very strange.
    https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498660951100379142

    No idea if this is genuine or not but fits with the pattern of there being serious Russian logistical challenges.

    At this point no-one is arming the Ukrainian military better than the Russians themselves.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Unlike the Iraqis in the Gulf War however, the Russians know US, UK and French jets won't bomb their convoy in Ukraine
    Yes, but Ukraine still has an airforce and drones and anti-tank missiles, and people who know how to use them.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    It's shockingly stupid to believe any of Russia's official military statistics after the last few days.
    Most of the Russian military has not even got to Kyiv yet, hence the 40 mile convoy of Russian tanks and troops now heading to the Ukranian capital.

    The battle for Kyiv has barely begun
    Which in itself says something about delays and slowed objectives. Every day Ukraine can buy itself is priceless.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    philiph said:

    darkage said:

    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480

    One step back from the precipice of nuclear war.
    I think not.
    Putin will not need any justifiable reason if he decides to go nuclear.
    It will be his rational (in his mind) decision.
    He would need to get the military to agree. It is not his sole decision, contrary to myth.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    It's shockingly stupid to believe any of Russia's official military statistics after the last few days.
    Most of the Russian military has not even got to Kyiv yet, hence the 40 mile convoy of Russian tanks and troops now heading to the Ukranian capital.

    The battle for Kyiv has barely begun
    Which in itself says something about delays and slowed objectives. Every day Ukraine can buy itself is priceless.
    They seem too have a bit of Zeno's Tortoise thing going on with that column.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,745

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    Why do you keep mentioning Warhammer 40K?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644

    mwadams said:

    Still keeping track of the at times quite frank Russia Today website (before it's banned), and see a piece by what appears to be a senior politician/commentator, describing the invasion in detached terms as an extremely drastic operation undertaken by the leadership which will lead to prolonged isolation.:

    "The Russian leadership, which decided on extremely drastic steps, probably understood the consequences, or even consciously aspired to them. The page of cooperation with the West has been turned. This does not mean that isolationism will become the norm, but it does mark the end of an important historical chapter in political relations. The new Cold War will not end quickly."

    He notably refrains from endorsing it. If that's typical of senior Russian observers, it does suggest that Putin will not be kept in office if the invasion is seen to fail.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/550873-ukraine-action-end-era/

    "On one side, there is the exercise of classic hard power, which is guided by simple, unpolished, but plainly understandable principles – blood and soil. Meanwhile, on the other is a modern method of propagating interests and influence, realized through a set of ideological, communicative, and economic tools, which are effective and, at the same time, malleable – commonly referred to as ‘values’."

    That is an extraordinary statement to be made on RT by the "chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy".

    It specifically casts the (current) Russian leadership as "not modern", and "not effective" (by inference).
    RT - the official voice of Russia - endorsing "blood and soil" nationalism.

    There is, incidentally, a very similar passage in Mein Kampf or the second book damning League Of Nations style values vs "blood and soil" nationalism.
    *off topic, but then the topic isn’t omg WWIII

    What are battlefield nuclear weapons? Is it just the same as big nuclear weapons only designed to make smaller bang considering your own people on the battlefield

    Are depleted uranium shells we used in Iraq that made many of our own service people ill classed as battlefield nuclear weapon?
    No.

    Battlefield nukes (tactical nukes) are low-yield weapons designed to punch a small hole in enemy formations. The US even had one, the Davy Crockett, with a yield of just 20 tonnes of TNT. I wouldn't have liked to fire it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device)

    I think it was basically superseded by powerful conventional weapons or bombs, such as MOAB.
    In a way...

    At low yields nuclear weapons are primarily radiation generators. The Davy Crockett warhead had very little explosive in it - so lots of gammas and neutrons escape. More than half the yield of the Davy Crockett was radiation.

    Neutrons are good at killing people inside metal boxes - tanks.

    Which is why the Soviets spent so much effort on lining tanks with plastic (which stops neutrons) and doing things like putting fuel tanks in doors (diesel fuel stops neutrons nicely)
    Though it did have the effect of turning the BMP1s into death traps in places like Afghanistan when the only means of escape for the troops inside was through the doors which were the source of the fire/explosion.
    Indeed. The the bloody Americans stop fielding tactical nuclear weapons. As Hermann Kahn observed - enemies are like that; they seem to have a predilection for doing the things most inconvenient for you.
  • Options
    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    felix said:

    What we are not seeing, as we have before, is Labour's score dropping at all, they are up and around the 38-40 mark, i.e. 2017 levels.

    .....yet..... In politics as in life nothing is inevitable. If the last 2 years haven't made that crystal clear I don't know what does.
    Yes given the electoral volatility since 2020 I wouldn't underestimate Johnson completely TBH even though I do believe the Tories are now in deep trouble in the North of England. It would be foolish to completely preclude a Tory majority at the next election even under Johnson.

    That said its interesting that Labour/Starmer support has only gone down 1% with RedfieldWilton at the same time as a Johnson has gained a boost.

    I can see the Tories doing a lot better than expected in the local elections in London, Scotland and the Midlands now even if they still get thumped in the northern met districts.

    Labour should try and massively play down expectations for the local elections particularly in London.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    Depends on the grounds. I was surprised to hear someone mention earlier today that there is actually a procedure in place to do this. But I got the impression it was based on the country having waged unprovoked war. So I am not sure it would set any precedent for further change.

    That said I am not sure what benefit it serves. Even if Russia were prevented from vetoing resolutions we all know that UN resolutions are pretty toothless anyway.

    Further I can't see China going along with it even if they are lukewarm towards Russia as they might worry they would be on the receiving end later on when they attack Taiwan.

    Lots of reasons why I don't think this will happen but none of them relate to the UK.
    I just think you do it once for X reason it becomes mentally easier to imagine doing it again for Y reason, though procedurally and diplomatically would be harder.

    As to benefit, I'd say it would be a massive actually. Putin appears obsessed with status, not getting that veto power would enrage him.

    But so many nukes I think the security aspect of the security council would prevent removal.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    darkage said:

    BREAKING:

    Europe will NOT transfer fighter planes to Ukraine.

    Poland and Slovakia have decided not to provide jets.

    🇺🇦🇪🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498668000983060480

    One step back from the precipice of nuclear war.
    I think not.
    Putin will not need any justifiable reason if he decides to go nuclear.
    It will be his rational (in his mind) decision.
    He would need to get the military to agree. It is not his sole decision, contrary to myth.
    It is hopefully populated with one or two strong people to say No, as opposed to cowering yes men whose wives and children are held hostage at gun point.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    Why do you keep mentioning Warhammer 40K?
    I think Dura Ace brought it up.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,096

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest

    Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21

    Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
    They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
    They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
    That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.

    Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?

    Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
    Not relevant. The EU was never exerting sovereignty over the UK.
    FFS! The UK has NOT "exerted" sovereignty over Scotland. Scotland IS the UK, is fully part of it and voted to remain part of it by democratic majority in 2014. You will not answer the question because you know the rationality of my question. IN other words you, and Scottish Nationalists in general want to keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. If you were to get it you would exert every sinew to ensure that the vote was not offered again. Very Putinesque.
    What else is the abandonment of the Sewell convention?

    Given the massive changes since 2014 and the votes in Westminster AND Holyrood for pro-referendum parties, what else is the refusal of a referendum but exerting sovereignty, or at least the London notion of sovereignty?

    And your partitionist fantasies are in particularly bad taste at present.

    PS: I have to go and do some work, so you shouldn't bother replying (will save your energies for the other news, seriously).
    In case you are still looking (I bet you are) I am giggling at a Scottish Nationalist talking of "partitionist fantasies". Separatism is another area it seems where it has to be the "right type" of separatism!
    Did pop in again. Not surprised. Right kind of democracy, evidently. Off to my report again.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254

    felix said:

    What we are not seeing, as we have before, is Labour's score dropping at all, they are up and around the 38-40 mark, i.e. 2017 levels.

    .....yet..... In politics as in life nothing is inevitable. If the last 2 years haven't made that crystal clear I don't know what does.
    Yes given the electoral volatility since 2020 I wouldn't underestimate Johnson completely TBH even though I do believe the Tories are now in deep trouble in the North of England. It would be foolish to completely preclude a Tory majority at the next election even under Johnson.

    That said its interesting that Labour/Starmer support has only gone down 1% with RedfieldWilton at the same time as a Johnson has gained a boost.

    I can see the Tories doing a lot better than expected in the local elections in London, Scotland and the Midlands now even if they still get thumped in the northern met districts.

    Labour should try and massively play down expectations for the local elections particularly in London.
    London will likely still be bad.

    Labour lead by 36% in London on the latest Yougov but by only 20% in the North while the Tories still lead by 1% in the Midlands and 10% in the South

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/28/voting-intention-con-34-lab-39-24-25-feb
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,925
    The hardest thing to deal with, personally, is the realisation that what is best for Ukraine may not be what is best for us. We can support Ukraine to a certain point, but cannot sweep in to save them without very grave consequences for our wider, long term goal of defeating Putin, which starts by isolating Russia in the world.

    I think that is why the refugee question is more important than I previously thought. If we can't save Ukraine, then we can still have a duty to help.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,649
    AlistairM said:

    Appears Russians are now abandoning Tor air defense systems. These are some of their most advanced and capable systems. Very strange.
    https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498660951100379142

    No idea if this is genuine or not but fits with the pattern of there being serious Russian logistical challenges.

    Bad news for that column.....
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Amazing footage from Melitopol of Ukrainians stopping the onward advance of a Russian convoy and chanting “Occupants!” and “Murderers!” The jittery Russians are firing into the air pic.twitter.com/j3jypGJdgz
    https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1498655849178402820

    Ukrainians copying some Extinction Rebellion tactics. Very brave of them against armed Russians. Russian troops clearly not prepared to run over Ukrainian civilians.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    Tabletop gaming setting (well originally, games and books galore now). Stereotypically liked by people who are to nerds what nerds are to non nerds.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,745
    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    Why do you keep mentioning Warhammer 40K?
    I think Dura Ace brought it up.
    Nerve touched?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    It's shockingly stupid to believe any of Russia's official military statistics after the last few days.
    Most of the Russian military has not even got to Kyiv yet, hence the 40 mile convoy of Russian tanks and troops now heading to the Ukranian capital.

    The battle for Kyiv has barely begun
    Which in itself says something about delays and slowed objectives. Every day Ukraine can buy itself is priceless.
    This is the sort of thing I mentioned below. The column was first reported yesterday at a shorter length, and we're still talking about it, as if has been static all this time. It could be anywhere now (well, say 12 hours driving at 30 MPH to maintain a column means 360 miles. These figures have been plucked out of my backside, and may smell more than a little off.)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254
    edited March 2022

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Unlike the Iraqis in the Gulf War however, the Russians know US, UK and French jets won't bomb their convoy in Ukraine
    Yes, but Ukraine still has an airforce and drones and anti-tank missiles, and people who know how to use them.
    Indeed but so does Russia and the Russian airforce is bigger than the Ukranian airforce
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Might explain why it's not been attacked. Ukrainians realise it is a feint.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited March 2022

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Seriously? Someone needs to make an edit to the Wikipedia page to add a new entry to the "surviving examples" section: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covenanter_tank

    Edit: Wikipedia says it was obsolete in 1944.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    A certain regular on PB suggested this morning that any idea of attacking that column, in the manner that such column have been attacked many times, meant that you must be a Warhammer 40K player - https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Warhammer_40k_Wiki
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,994
    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    stjohn said:

    Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.

    Well done!

    A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.

    A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.

    Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.

    Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
    I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
    There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria

    Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    Because Japan has been committed to pacifism historically but that mentality is undergoing change. Also, real power is determined by the economic base of a country, which is needed to sustain a military. Japan's economy is three times larger than Russia. And India's GDP is 50% larger than Russia and growing faster.

    How strange it is that you are peddling pro-Russian lies.
    Real power in the economic arena is determined by economic influence.

    Real power in the military arena is determined by the size of your army, navy and airforce and Russia has the third biggest armed forces in the world after the USA and China.

    Russia also has the most nuclear missiles of any nation in the world. Japan's economic strength would not be enough to prevent and hold off a Russian invasion of it

    India likely will join the UN Security Council by 2050 however, it is the 4th strongest military already and will soon be in the 5th largest economies too
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644
    AlistairM said:

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Seriously? Someone needs to make an edit to the Wikipedia page to add a new entry to the "surviving examples" section: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covenanter_tank

    Edit: Wikipedia says it was obsolete in 1944.
    Shall I stick your leg back on? Seems I have accidentally pulled too hard....

    Cough @HYUFD, tanks, etc Cough Cough
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,407

    On topic the Ukraine crisis has not changed what made Johnson unfit for office before the crisis. Yes he has had a pretty good crisis - though I suspect a lot of that was down to the groundwork the U.K. has been laying down for seven years in the Ukraine, very little, if any if it to do with Johnson. Changing leader in the middle of an international crisis is a sign of strength, not weakness.

    Nick Palmer's comments he other day about Boris made me re-evaluate our PM a little. He's obviously not thick or unintelligent, and neither is he lazy: anyone lazy would not put themselves up for election. It's too much bother.

    Instead, I wonder if he has a lazy mind. Too often, he chooses not to think too heavily about a topic, perhaps even being swayed by whomever he's talked to recently (e.g. Paterson). I've worked with someone like that in the past: highly intelligent with excellent qualifications, but all too often chose not to use his brain and did random stuff instead. He was also quite impulsive, and I think Johnson might be a little that way too.
    I hesitate to speculate too much about people whom I know, even slightly, but that sounds quite likely to me. I recognise it a bit in myself (maybe most of us are like that to some extent?) - if I find that I can get by in an argument with a half-baked thought, why bother to bake it all the way? Johnson's experience of life is that his talent in expressing himself engagingly and ability to deal with the PR parts of politics well enables him to wing it.

    That works perfectly well as, say, London Mayor, where the amount of detailed thinking that you need to do is really limited. Likewise if writing pastiches about the EU, or making a speech about Brexit. It also works quite well in general terms at time of war in another country - express ringing solidarity, visit a church, sign off an arms shipment, no great mental effort needed to do them all with vigour and competence.

    For developing a detailed plan for the longer term, perhaps not so much.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,112
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Unlike the Iraqis in the Gulf War however, the Russians know US, UK and French jets won't bomb their convoy in Ukraine
    Yes, but Ukraine still has an airforce and drones and anti-tank missiles, and people who know how to use them.
    Indeed but so does Russian and the Russian airforce is bigger than the Ukranian airforce
    Mine's bigger than yours!
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    A certain regular on PB suggested this morning that any idea of attacking that column, in the manner that such column have been attacked many times, meant that you must be a Warhammer 40K player - https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Warhammer_40k_Wiki
    I don't recall making any recommendations for *how* it could be attacked. Just observed that it was odd that it hadn't been, particularly when it presented such an open target.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,745
    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    stjohn said:

    Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.

    Well done!

    A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.

    A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.

    Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.

    Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
    I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
    There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria

    Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
    Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,525
    Boris Johnson says that the UK *is not* supporting volunteers going to fight in Ukraine - directly contradicting Liz Truss

    He says Nato is a defensive alliance and that directly getting involved with conflict in Russia is a 'huge step'

    'That is not on the agenda'

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1498676957663346695
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571

    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    Why do you keep mentioning Warhammer 40K?
    I think Dura Ace brought it up.
    Nerve touched?
    Couldn't say, never played it myself. But I do doubt even experienced ex Navy people have perfect ability to judge other amateur comments on a blog.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762
    AlistairM said:

    Amazing footage from Melitopol of Ukrainians stopping the onward advance of a Russian convoy and chanting “Occupants!” and “Murderers!” The jittery Russians are firing into the air pic.twitter.com/j3jypGJdgz
    https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1498655849178402820

    Ukrainians copying some Extinction Rebellion tactics. Very brave of them against armed Russians. Russian troops clearly not prepared to run over Ukrainian civilians.

    Brave.

    One thing I'd note: some of these long-nosed vehicles make it hard to see what's exactly in front of your radiator. It wouldn't surprise me if the driver could not see some of those people. It's the same with diggers when bulldozing/digging, which is why you often have spotters outside.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,024
    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    Tabletop gaming setting (well originally, games and books galore now). Stereotypically liked by people who are to nerds what nerds are to non nerds.
    Hang on! There are some vintage grognards here!

    Indeed this is the go to reference, and it is the same @NickPalmer:

    https://www.abebooks.co.uk/book-search/title/the-best-of-board-wargaming/author/palmer-nicholas/

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,525
    Please take note of how dramatically Twitter has changed since the freezing of Russian assets. Suddenly all those anti-Biden “American patriots” have disappeared.
    https://twitter.com/HC_Richardson/status/1498658220545658881

    one of them seems to be embedded with the Russians...

    https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1498393087952961541
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    Why do you keep mentioning Warhammer 40K?
    I think Dura Ace brought it up.
    Nerve touched?
    Couldn't say, never played it myself. But I do doubt even experienced ex Navy people have perfect ability to judge other amateur comments on a blog.
    In particular, an ex-Navy pilot talking about army tactics on the ground is a bit iffy.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,571
    edited March 2022
    Aslan said:
    Sounds too good to be true, but the idea hes genuinely baffled by slow progress would be nice.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Whatever happens the Russian Military looks ridiculous in Ukraine.

    Out of date equipment, no logistics, no central command and soldiers who do not want to be there.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    Because Japan has been committed to pacifism historically but that mentality is undergoing change. Also, real power is determined by the economic base of a country, which is needed to sustain a military. Japan's economy is three times larger than Russia. And India's GDP is 50% larger than Russia and growing faster.

    How strange it is that you are peddling pro-Russian lies.
    Real power in the economic arena is determined by economic influence.

    Real power in the military arena is determined by the size of your army, navy and airforce and Russia has the third biggest armed forces in the world after the USA and China.

    Russia also has the most nuclear missiles of any nation in the world. Japan's economic strength would not be enough to prevent and hold off a Russian invasion of it

    India likely will join the UN Security Council by 2050 however, it is the 4th strongest military already and will soon be in the 5th largest economies too
    Sign. Again.

    Russia has a gigantic conscript army. Of that a tiny fraction is deployable and usable. Recent events suggest that even that is not exactly..... er... world beating....
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    AlistairM said:

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Seriously? Someone needs to make an edit to the Wikipedia page to add a new entry to the "surviving examples" section: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covenanter_tank

    Edit: Wikipedia says it was obsolete in 1944.
    Shall I stick your leg back on? Seems I have accidentally pulled too hard....

    Cough @HYUFD, tanks, etc Cough Cough
    Thing is though. It is actually believable.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,903

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    A certain regular on PB suggested this morning that any idea of attacking that column, in the manner that such column have been attacked many times, meant that you must be a Warhammer 40K player - https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Warhammer_40k_Wiki
    Let it go mate.

    :smile:
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Whatever happens the Russian Military looks ridiculous in Ukraine.

    Out of date equipment, no logistics, no central command and soldiers who do not want to be there.
    I must remember to include a {sarcasm} tag in future
    I must remember to include a {sarcasm} tag in future
    I must remember to include a {sarcasm} tag in future
    I must remember to include a {sarcasm} tag in future

    Our dear friend @HYUFD is *not* leading the column.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,112

    Johnson is clearly safe until 2023 now. Bizarre that anybody thinks otherwise.

    Haha! CCO confirms 2023 GE.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,762

    On topic the Ukraine crisis has not changed what made Johnson unfit for office before the crisis. Yes he has had a pretty good crisis - though I suspect a lot of that was down to the groundwork the U.K. has been laying down for seven years in the Ukraine, very little, if any if it to do with Johnson. Changing leader in the middle of an international crisis is a sign of strength, not weakness.

    Nick Palmer's comments he other day about Boris made me re-evaluate our PM a little. He's obviously not thick or unintelligent, and neither is he lazy: anyone lazy would not put themselves up for election. It's too much bother.

    Instead, I wonder if he has a lazy mind. Too often, he chooses not to think too heavily about a topic, perhaps even being swayed by whomever he's talked to recently (e.g. Paterson). I've worked with someone like that in the past: highly intelligent with excellent qualifications, but all too often chose not to use his brain and did random stuff instead. He was also quite impulsive, and I think Johnson might be a little that way too.
    I hesitate to speculate too much about people whom I know, even slightly, but that sounds quite likely to me. I recognise it a bit in myself (maybe most of us are like that to some extent?) - if I find that I can get by in an argument with a half-baked thought, why bother to bake it all the way? Johnson's experience of life is that his talent in expressing himself engagingly and ability to deal with the PR parts of politics well enables him to wing it.

    That works perfectly well as, say, London Mayor, where the amount of detailed thinking that you need to do is really limited. Likewise if writing pastiches about the EU, or making a speech about Brexit. It also works quite well in general terms at time of war in another country - express ringing solidarity, visit a church, sign off an arms shipment, no great mental effort needed to do them all with vigour and competence.

    For developing a detailed plan for the longer term, perhaps not so much.
    Yet oddly, a lot of the long-term planning decisions made during the pandemic were good. Things like vaccine procurement. I do wonder if he can absorb information and make decisions when he thinks he really needs to, the rest of the time he just does the first thing that comes into his mind. If he doesn't think it's important, he doesn't think about it.

    I'm like that when speaking. I'm always thinking about the last sentence I said whilst speaking the next one. In other words, my mouth runs off.

    BTW, I agree with your first line. It's a bit naughty of me.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,527
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson says that the UK *is not* supporting volunteers going to fight in Ukraine - directly contradicting Liz Truss

    He says Nato is a defensive alliance and that directly getting involved with conflict in Russia is a 'huge step'

    'That is not on the agenda'

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1498676957663346695

    I am sure the fan club will soon point out that this is consistent with the Foreign Office warning it may be illegal and Truss supporting the idea.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,397
    Been away for a couple of hours.

    Am I right in thinking it still looks like it is not going well for Putin? Sounds like RU soldiers are not happy and there's a convoy just waiting to be hit to feck by Ukr air force. Meanwhile there's a run on the banks.

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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,967
    AlistairM said:

    Amazing footage from Melitopol of Ukrainians stopping the onward advance of a Russian convoy and chanting “Occupants!” and “Murderers!” The jittery Russians are firing into the air pic.twitter.com/j3jypGJdgz
    https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1498655849178402820

    Ukrainians copying some Extinction Rebellion tactics. Very brave of them against armed Russians. Russian troops clearly not prepared to run over Ukrainian civilians.

    wow! Passive resistance may be very effective.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,644
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?

    The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?

    Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.

    To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
    It doesn't make sense. Ask the Iraqis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
    Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
    OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
    Tabletop gaming setting (well originally, games and books galore now). Stereotypically liked by people who are to nerds what nerds are to non nerds.
    Hang on! There are some vintage grognards here!

    Indeed this is the go to reference, and it is the same @NickPalmer:

    https://www.abebooks.co.uk/book-search/title/the-best-of-board-wargaming/author/palmer-nicholas/

    The Imperial German army was big into table top war gaming, for training their staff officers.....
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,024

    BREAKING -

    The reason for the attack column being stalled outside Kyiv is a single broken down tank, blocking a vital bridge.

    Latest high resolution picture suggest is it a WWII vintage British Covenanter.

    Infared pictures indicate it broke down due to overheating - a common problem with the type.

    Experts are puzzled by the presence of such a vehicle - "We knew the Russians are throwing any old shit into the battle, but really?"

    Whatever happens the Russian Military looks ridiculous in Ukraine.

    Out of date equipment, no logistics, no central command and soldiers who do not want to be there.
    #Ukraine: More modern military materiel abandoned by Russian soldiers near Poltava - a Tor-M2 short-range SAM system and T-80U tank. https://t.co/Y876Bbjfiy

    It's like the old Vietnam war joke:

    "ARVN issue M16 for sale, as new, only dropped once."
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,254
    edited March 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    kle4 said:

    NEW: Understand the UK is considering a move to suspend Russia from the UN Security Council. They’re one of only five permanent members.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130

    Is the UK sure it wants to open that door?
    It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
    It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
    No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.

    India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
    Because Japan has been committed to pacifism historically but that mentality is undergoing change. Also, real power is determined by the economic base of a country, which is needed to sustain a military. Japan's economy is three times larger than Russia. And India's GDP is 50% larger than Russia and growing faster.

    How strange it is that you are peddling pro-Russian lies.
    Real power in the economic arena is determined by economic influence.

    Real power in the military arena is determined by the size of your army, navy and airforce and Russia has the third biggest armed forces in the world after the USA and China.

    Russia also has the most nuclear missiles of any nation in the world. Japan's economic strength would not be enough to prevent and hold off a Russian invasion of it

    India likely will join the UN Security Council by 2050 however, it is the 4th strongest military already and will soon be in the 5th largest economies too
    Sign. Again.

    Russia has a gigantic conscript army. Of that a tiny fraction is deployable and usable. Recent events suggest that even that is not exactly..... er... world beating....
    Some are conscripts but not all.

    Russia also has enough nuclear weapons to destroy most of the western world
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,903

    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    stjohn said:

    Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.

    Well done!

    A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.

    A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.

    Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.

    Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
    I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
    There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria

    Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
    Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
    @HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.

    These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,527
    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:
    Sounds too good to be true, but the idea hes genuinely baffled by slow progress would be nice.
    It may be true, fits the narrative and feels quite plausible, but Western intelligence would probably be putting out similar stories whether true or not. My guess is it is true but that is driven more by events than the "intelligence" report.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,525
    Given the apparent state of his conventional forces, I wonder exactly how many of Mad Vlad's nukes can actually still fly?
This discussion has been closed.