I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
I think it rather more likely that he believed the west to be irretrievably divided, to the point where it would not be able coherently to respond to an invasion. The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
I think it rather more likely that he believed the west to be irretrievably divided, to the point where it would not be able coherently to respond to an invasion. The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
I think, given the utterances of his associates and that remarkable document that was accidentally broadcast the other day, that it is a combination of the two.
- The West is divided.
And
- Mother Russia faces a crisis.
So Now Is The Time, for The Strong Man on a Horse.....
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Queen Elizabeth felt well enough to undertake two virtual audiences on Tuesday, just over a week after she tested positive for COVID-19 and following the cancellation of other similar events last week.
The British monarch, 95, has been fully vaccinated against coronavirus and was previously said to have been suffering mild cold-like symptoms. Despite cancelling some events she continued with light duties after testing positive.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
I think it rather more likely that he believed the west to be irretrievably divided, to the point where it would not be able coherently to respond to an invasion. The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
I think, given the utterances of his associates and that remarkable document that was accidentally broadcast the other day, that it is a combination of the two.
- The West is divided.
And
- Mother Russia faces a crisis.
So Now Is The Time, for The Strong Man on a Horse.....
This was always his escape route out of Moscow.....without even the clothes on his back, such was the drama of his flight from the madding crowd.
In other comic relief, when you confuse “the SNP” with “the public”:
EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest
Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret
Given a majority of the Scottish public who voted voted to have a referendum, it's not an unreasonable elision.
They already had one. No point me voting for a referendum on Brexit. We had one. My side lost.
They explicitly voted to have another referendum. Rather less defeatist.
That is the problem with Scottish Nationalism, no sorry nationalism; democracy is good, provided it provides the answer we want.
Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?
Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
You couldn’t make it up. RusNats busy trying to partition Ukraine, so BritNats sharpen the knife to carve up Jockland.
Russian Imperialism and British Imperialism. Two sides of the same dud coin.
OT I believe a couple of posters (OKC?) were commenting earlier today about a lack of some foodstuffs on the shelves. Having just been to Waitrose I would suggest it is because they have hijacked every food lorry in the country for themselves. I have not seen them so stuffed with produce for years.
Shocking lack of barbeque beef hula hoops the last couple of visits to Waitrose. Its beyond a joke now. Letters o the manager...
Reality - I think we still have patchy supplies, but the supply apocalypse never quite happened due to the skill and adaptability of the professions involved, so well done to them.
I also think that we had times in the past where certain things were not in stock, but because we weren't specifically looking for them, we never noticed.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
The problem is that the logic of that, surely, is that we never engage Russian forces, not even on NATO soil.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
I think it rather more likely that he believed the west to be irretrievably divided, to the point where it would not be able coherently to respond to an invasion. The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
I think, given the utterances of his associates and that remarkable document that was accidentally broadcast the other day, that it is a combination of the two.
- The West is divided.
And
- Mother Russia faces a crisis.
So Now Is The Time, for The Strong Man on a Horse.....
LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Queen Elizabeth felt well enough to undertake two virtual audiences on Tuesday, just over a week after she tested positive for COVID-19 and following the cancellation of other similar events last week.
The British monarch, 95, has been fully vaccinated against coronavirus and was previously said to have been suffering mild cold-like symptoms. Despite cancelling some events she continued with light duties after testing positive.
She should troll Putin by having her first in-person meeting photographed on the longest banqueting table at Buck Palace with her at one end and guests 50 metres away at the other and the caption could be “All queens love a long table”.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
I am rather more interested in the fact that no arrows go anywhere near the Western part of Ukraine. That would seem to indicate (if accurate) that the Ukrainians have plenty of opportunity to get weapons and supplies into the country without immediate fear of interdiction.
IF they are ruling out nuclear war then what's to stop the West climbing in to Putin's columns right now?
It is Putin's finger on the nuclear button, not Lavrov's
It means that Putin can give the order but there will be a palace coup if he does. You also don't understand the logistics of launching a nuke. It's not a big red button on Putin's desk in the Kremlin. You seem completely ignorant of anything to do with this. Suggesting that Putin can order a nuke then suddenly it happens is nonsense.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
I think it rather more likely that he believed the west to be irretrievably divided, to the point where it would not be able coherently to respond to an invasion. The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
I think, given the utterances of his associates and that remarkable document that was accidentally broadcast the other day, that it is a combination of the two.
- The West is divided.
And
- Mother Russia faces a crisis.
So Now Is The Time, for The Strong Man on a Horse.....
Amazing that the crucifix around his neck doesn't burn right through his skin.....
That downside with the optimism of Lavrov's comments is that the bloody and vicious bombing is still going on. I wonder if the top brass want a slightly less mad leader, but someone still immediately known as a very clear and brutal authoritarian - Lukashenko might be the man for them, in that case.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
As opposed to their current strategy of not getting involved, which is showing up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities?
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
The problem is that the logic of that, surely, is that we never engage Russian forces, not even on NATO soil.
It’s not quite the same, surely?
No matter what the rights and wrongs of the situation Ukraine is not a member of NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance that requires mutual assistance to an attack on NATO itself.
Now we can argue all we want about whether NATO should in theory be involved in fighting for a friendly neighbour attacked by the big bad bear, but that is not what NATO is. You would be changing the alliance from one of mutual assistance to one of protection of interests out with the borders of member states. That is what Russia claims NATO to be (it is not).
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
- Cases down, R below 1 in all regions, and for all ages. - In hospital - the bump seems to be part of the natural cycle of the numbers, but bears watching - MV beds - seems, again to be falling back. to the previous decline. We shall see - Admissions - still falling, R below 1. - Deaths - still falling fast.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
The problem is that the logic of that, surely, is that we never engage Russian forces, not even on NATO soil.
There are two circumstances in which the West will intervene directly.
1. Aggression on NATO soil 2. Russian deployment of banned weapons (NBC WMDs) against civilians.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
It does, just as it did in 1956 and '68 with Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
But in the bully's mind, if we go to war with him directly, we're fighting over a possession, not to save a country. And he has nuclear weapons which he might use in response. If he fails to conquer the country, then it's probably a different matter.
It's a f@cked up set of mental processes, but we don't get to choose them.
- Cases down, R below 1 in all regions, and for all ages. - In hospital - the bump seems to be part of the natural cycle of the numbers, but bears watching - MV beds - seems, again to be falling back. to the previous decline. We shall see - Admissions - still falling, R below 1. - Deaths - still falling fast.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
Off you pop then, take a shufty, come back when it's over. You'll be a PB ledge, the endless stream of previously posted tripe wiped from collective memory as if it'd never existed.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
The problem is that the logic of that, surely, is that we never engage Russian forces, not even on NATO soil.
No, the logic of that, is that we apply increasing resistance (arming Ukraine etc) as he approaches NATO borders.
Complete with lots of a lots of NATO military personnel in the Eastern European NATO countries.
So that he knows that we are serious about defending NATO countries. And doesn't attack.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I like your Scots Lift World Cup scenario. I wonder when it’ll occur to FUDHY that him supporting military intervention in Scotland and voicing support for Franco and Francoist strategy might just be a teensy bit counterproductive for British Nationalism?
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
As opposed to their current strategy of not getting involved, which is showing up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities?
Not sure I believe that.
Perhaps the mobile anti-aircraft missiles distributed around Ukraine have them spooked?
This UN walkout was at least an appropriate response.
https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1498627568529981441 HRC members walk out once Lavrov’s video began to play in the session of the Council. Enough of exposure to the deranged lunacy of war criminals. We will listen to you at International Tribunal for War Crimes of Putin’s Regime
- Cases down, R below 1 in all regions, and for all ages. - In hospital - the bump seems to be part of the natural cycle of the numbers, but bears watching - MV beds - seems, again to be falling back. to the previous decline. We shall see - Admissions - still falling, R below 1. - Deaths - still falling fast.
Sadly, Mad Vlad says 9/10 Apocalypse....
Prof. Groeteschele : Who would survive? That's an interesting question. I would predict... convicts and file clerks.
[a male guest laughs, but Groeteschele silences him with expression that is dead serious]
Prof. Groeteschele : The worst convicts - those deep down in solitary confinement - and the most ordinary file clerks, probably for large insurance companies, because they would be in fire-proof rooms, protected by tons of the best insulator in the world: paper. And imagine what will happen. The small group of vicious criminals will fight the army of file clerks for the remaining means of life. The convicts will know violence, but the file clerks will know... organization. Who do you think will win?
[Groeteschele pauses, and then laughs]
Prof. Groeteschele : It's all hypotheses of course, but fun to play around with.
IF they are ruling out nuclear war then what's to stop the West climbing in to Putin's columns right now?
It is Putin's finger on the nuclear button, not Lavrov's
It means that Putin can give the order but there will be a palace coup if he does. You also don't understand the logistics of launching a nuke. It's not a big red button on Putin's desk in the Kremlin. You seem completely ignorant of anything to do with this. Suggesting that Putin can order a nuke then suddenly it happens is nonsense.
Indeed. The Russian military, from the generals all the way down to the Major in the missile silo with the firing key would have to be ready to unleash mutually assured destruction, not just Putin. Which is just about the only thing that helps me sleep at night at the moment.
I suspect by far the biggest risk right now is that in times of heightened tension, something can easily go wrong. A flock of seagulls on the radar mistaken for an ICBM, a gung ho Russian Colonel accidentally and without authority engaging a NATO supply convoy on the Polish border, etc.
But we are a lot closer to nuclear apocalypse than we were a week ago and almost certainly closer than we have been in my four decades on this planet. Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get scared.
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
Your analogy is about as useful as when politicians in charge of their own fiat currency talk about fixing the roof when the sun is shining, or the nation’s credit card. Except those people don’t risk sparking nuclear oblivion by having the British raf shoot down Russian migs.
IF they are ruling out nuclear war then what's to stop the West climbing in to Putin's columns right now?
It is Putin's finger on the nuclear button, not Lavrov's
It means that Putin can give the order but there will be a palace coup if he does. You also don't understand the logistics of launching a nuke. It's not a big red button on Putin's desk in the Kremlin. You seem completely ignorant of anything to do with this. Suggesting that Putin can order a nuke then suddenly it happens is nonsense.
Indeed. The Russian military, from the generals all the way down to the Major in the missile silo with the firing key would have to be ready to unleash mutually assured destruction, not just Putin. Which is just about the only thing that helps me sleep at night at the moment.
I suspect by far the biggest risk right now is that in times of heightened tension, something can easily go wrong. A flock of seagulls on the radar mistaken for an ICBM, a gung ho Russian Colonel accidentally and without authority engaging a NATO supply convoy on the Polish border, etc.
But we are a lot closer to nuclear apocalypse than we were a week ago and almost certainly closer than we have been in my four decades on this planet. Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get scared.
See below. Much less dangerous than an hour ago, if Lavrov's statement is to be believed. Putin and him have been super-tight, and now he's clearly contradicting him.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Yes, you may well be right.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Christ, there's a whole PB attack plan based on it being 40 miles long, supported by hunners of posts! Back to the Warhammer table..
Fuck me, the PB brigade managed to reduce it from 40 to three miles in half a day? That’s one effective piece of military strategy. Tea and medals for us all.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
I suppose you could also argue that it's to the long-term benefit of Ukraine if they can take the credit for defeating Russia, and the West's role is minimised.
But I'm not certain enough is being done to prevent Ukraine's defeat.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
That downside with the optimism of Lavrov's comments is that the bloody and vicious bombing is still going on. I wonder if the top brass want a slightly less mad leader, but someone still immediately known as a very clear and brutal authoritarian - Lukashenko might be the man for them, in that case.
Even if another authoritarian takes over, that is better in all ways than Putin. They will attempt some sort of reset. They may well concentrate their efforts on internal security rather than foreign adventures, which while bad for the Russian people is at least less of an existential threat to life in the Northern Hemisphere. And I expect the new leader would run things as more of a team player than before, so more committee based decisions which lends itself to risk aversion.
The big problem at the moment is one man on a mission with almost unchallenged power and a finger on the nuclear button.
I'm sorry but after that Ukrainian journalist question to Boris this morning I can't get beyond the feeling we are standing around watching a gang of not even very tough bullies beat the cr*p out of an ordinary person, congratulating ourselves for cheering for the person getting assaulted.
It just feels wrong.
The thing is, all that Western kit in Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of exactly what this woman is requesting.
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
I suppose you could also argue that it's to the long-term benefit of Ukraine if they can take the credit for defeating Russia, and the West's role is minimised.
But I'm not certain enough is being done to prevent Ukraine's defeat.
Putin is already weakened, belittled and a far less secure figure. That is a success.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
Can't be long before they leave their vehicles and head into the nearest town to try to buy or loot stuff. Like happens when cars get stuck on the motorway in snow. Must be getting a bit chilly there too.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Putin promised them they would be showered with rose petals.
That column is waiting for the roses to bloom.....
"A Member of the United Nations against which preventive or enforcement action has been taken by the Security Council may be suspended from the exercise of the rights and privileges of membership by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council. The exercise of these rights and privileges may be restored by the Security Council."
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Still doesn't mean it's not an integral part of UK Labour. They do have a legal fiddle to use 'Scottish Labour' in elections but will they get that separate symbol past the Electoral Commission, I wonder?
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
I think we're past that really.
I suspect individual commanders or soldiers are not willing to kill unarmed civilians if they can avoid it.
I see the BBC is saying: (1) not 40 miles long, but a series of bunches along 40 miles of the road (2) hampered by broken down vehicles in "several places", not just one (hence the bunches?) (3) some tanks, but mainly not combat vehicles at all, but "logistical vehicles".
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Shoulder launched weapons are one thing - but military aircraft can simply fly above them.
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Putin promised them they would be showered with rose petals.
That column is waiting for the roses to bloom.....
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
Can't be long before they leave their vehicles and head into the nearest town to try to buy or loot stuff. Like happens when cars get stuck on the motorway in snow. Must be getting a bit chilly there too.
Day time highs of 2°C. Going down to minus 5 on Saturday.
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
I recall someone or other on here saying Lavrov is a sneaky fucker. I think I’d back the sneaky fuckers over the virtuous to pull off a self preserving coup any day of the week.
I see the BBC is saying: (1) not 40 miles long, but a series of bunches along 40 miles of the road (2) hampered by broken down vehicles in "several places", not just one (hence the bunches?) (3) some tanks, but mainly not combat vehicles at all, but "logistical vehicles".
(2) ....So @HYUFD has been buying *more* Covanenters?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
Staying cold on the eastern front too.
Supplying a column that long is a logistical nightmare unless they use e.g. helicopters. I mean it's not as simple as driving straight past every vehicle to get to the one in front.
It would be lovely if all those in the vehicles just decided, 'you know what, fuck it. Let's run away.'
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
I think we're past that really.
I suspect individual commanders or soldiers are not willing to kill unarmed civilians if they can avoid it.
I think it's a mixture of what you both say. Putin has told the soldiers they are there to rescue Ukrainians from the government fascists. When they see that regular Ukrainians are against them, they don't see them as the enemy so don't know what to do.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Shoulder launched weapons are one thing - but military aircraft can simply fly above them.
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I guess the issue for the Russian air force is that they will need to get close to the ground to make their bombing run and that makes them vulnerable to handheld AA. It's one thing to lose a bunch of old tanks and armoured vehicles, quite another to lose 30-40 $20m planes that will take years to replace.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
Shoulder launched weapons are one thing - but military aircraft can simply fly above them.
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I guess the issue for the Russian air force is that they will need to get close to the ground to make their bombing run and that makes them vulnerable to handheld AA. It's one thing to lose a bunch of old tanks and armoured vehicles, quite another to lose 30-40 $20m planes that will take years to replace.
Especially when you can't import microchips any more.
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
I think we're past that really.
I suspect individual commanders or soldiers are not willing to kill unarmed civilians if they can avoid it.
Yep, you have to remember the vast majority of people are not murderous arseholes.
IF they are ruling out nuclear war then what's to stop the West climbing in to Putin's columns right now?
It is Putin's finger on the nuclear button, not Lavrov's
It means that Putin can give the order but there will be a palace coup if he does. You also don't understand the logistics of launching a nuke. It's not a big red button on Putin's desk in the Kremlin. You seem completely ignorant of anything to do with this. Suggesting that Putin can order a nuke then suddenly it happens is nonsense.
Indeed. The Russian military, from the generals all the way down to the Major in the missile silo with the firing key would have to be ready to unleash mutually assured destruction, not just Putin. Which is just about the only thing that helps me sleep at night at the moment.
I suspect by far the biggest risk right now is that in times of heightened tension, something can easily go wrong. A flock of seagulls on the radar mistaken for an ICBM, a gung ho Russian Colonel accidentally and without authority engaging a NATO supply convoy on the Polish border, etc.
But we are a lot closer to nuclear apocalypse than we were a week ago and almost certainly closer than we have been in my four decades on this planet. Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get scared.
We are closer than we were a week ago but by reckoning further away than we were on Sunday.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
How good are they against fast jets? I know they made a mess out of helicopters with them in Afghanistan, but I thought the fast jets would be a lot less vulnerable.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I like your Scots Lift World Cup scenario. I wonder when it’ll occur to FUDHY that him supporting military intervention in Scotland and voicing support for Franco and Francoist strategy might just be a teensy bit counterproductive for British Nationalism?
There is no UK team at the World Cup anyway, only English and Scottish teams. We only play as the UK at the Olympics.
Though Spain of course is still playing in the World Cup and Olympics despite banning a Catalan independence referendum as like Scotland that is an internal matter, not an invasion of a foreign country as Russia's invasion of Ukraine is
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Putin promised them they would be showered with rose petals.
That column is waiting for the roses to bloom.....
Well, that was my point. It was a monumental, and fairly inexplicable, misjudgment by Putin to think that (most) Ukrainians would welcome their "liberation". But having made that misjudgment, he's got a real dilemma, hasn't he?
Still doesn't mean it's not an integral part of UK Labour. They do have a legal fiddle to use 'Scottish Labour' in elections but will they get that separate symbol past the Electoral Commission, I wonder?
Lol, a purple and red thistle. Hock ay the noo, Irn Brus and tartan scarves all round!
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
I know what you mean. It is bizarre, isn't it? It's reminding me of the comments around the time of the First Gulf War - "Is this the battle harden Iraqi army? Really?"
As to the lack of knowledge and stories of units not knowing what they are supposed to do..... I recall reading in a book by one of the people who rebuilt the American Army after Vietnam that one reform was informing people up and down the chain about what they were doing and why. And contrasting it with the Red Army, where apparently, it was very much a case of "Do X", with no reason or context given.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
Still doesn't mean it's not an integral part of UK Labour. They do have a legal fiddle to use 'Scottish Labour' in elections but will they get that separate symbol past the Electoral Commission, I wonder?
I really doubt that the Labour rose is a substantial compliant SNP voters have about SLAB. If they do recover I can't see switching to a thistle will have much to do with it.
IF they are ruling out nuclear war then what's to stop the West climbing in to Putin's columns right now?
It is Putin's finger on the nuclear button, not Lavrov's
It means that Putin can give the order but there will be a palace coup if he does. You also don't understand the logistics of launching a nuke. It's not a big red button on Putin's desk in the Kremlin. You seem completely ignorant of anything to do with this. Suggesting that Putin can order a nuke then suddenly it happens is nonsense.
Indeed. The Russian military, from the generals all the way down to the Major in the missile silo with the firing key would have to be ready to unleash mutually assured destruction, not just Putin. Which is just about the only thing that helps me sleep at night at the moment.
I suspect by far the biggest risk right now is that in times of heightened tension, something can easily go wrong. A flock of seagulls on the radar mistaken for an ICBM, a gung ho Russian Colonel accidentally and without authority engaging a NATO supply convoy on the Polish border, etc.
But we are a lot closer to nuclear apocalypse than we were a week ago and almost certainly closer than we have been in my four decades on this planet. Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get scared.
Indeed, though I recall a RadioLab episode where they talked about this with a soldier undergoing minuteman training. While going through the process in a seminar the trainee asked 'What if I think the order is unlawful?' His instructor thought about it and asked the recruit to write it down. The instructor then took that piece of paper, showed it to his superiors and the recruit was struck out. It seems the US system weeds the more conscientious out, at least at the lower level, trusting that the big brain thinking has all been done at the higher level.
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
I think we're past that really.
I suspect individual commanders or soldiers are not willing to kill unarmed civilians if they can avoid it.
Yep, you have to remember the vast majority of people are not murderous arseholes.
I recently read 'the shortest history of war'. It's very good. One thing which came out of it was that in all the wars for which we have evidence, 90% of soldiers don't kill anyone at all. Indeed, they clearly take steps not to - deliberately missing, firing in the air, etc. They don't run away, because that would be letting their mates down. But they don't kill people - even enemy soldiers - because that betrays some innate moral code. This will be even more the case when facing a) civilians, and b) civilians you have been repeatedly told are your brethren.
Theories on why the Russian Airforce is largely MIA:
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
Fear of NATO anti-aircraft permanently degrading their capability. I think that's got to be a big worry now, Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity and every time they send in a $20m jet it might not come back. It's not like Syria or Chechnya where he's got no real surface to air capability to potentially destroy expensive fighters and bombers.
"Ukraine has now got serious anti-aircraft capacity" ??
I mean we've just given it to them, shit loads of handheld AA weapons from NATO countries and Sweden/Finland
How good are they against fast jets? I know they made a mess out of helicopters with them in Afghanistan, but I thought the fast jets would be a lot less vulnerable.
I think when they make their bombing run they have to get fairly low to the ground and slow down which makes them vulnerable. The sheer numbers will be making Russian commanders pretty nervous to send in expensive jets they won't be able to replace.
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
I've been very reluctant to comment on what's happening in Ukraine, because I don't believe anybody really knows for sure, despite (or because of) the volume of tweets linked to on here and elsewhere. However, I'm breaking my reluctance to share just two thoughts:
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
Lavrov is a nasty piece of work, but I’ve always believed him to be sane. It’s why I agree with you that he’s the most likely instigator of a palace coup.
Edit: I see TUD has made the same point, but with rather more punch!
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
I concur.
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
It's well possible at the next GE Labour fail to gain Stourbridge, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Dudley South and North etc.... in the Midlands yet pick up seats such as Hexham, Truro & Falmouth, Altrincham and Sale West, Colchester etc... that they didn't win in 1997. If Labour can wallop the Tories in the North, overperform in the South, they may be able to offset underperforming in the Midlands.
Yes, you may well be right.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions in the UK.
Now London is the safest region for Labour in the UK, Labour got an even higher voteshare in London in 2019 than in Wales and the Northeast.
By contrast the Tories got a lower voteshare in the SouthEast than they did in the East of England and East Midlands in 2019 and the Tories also got a higher voteshare in the West Midlands than they did in the Southwest.
The Midlands is increasingly becoming the Tories safest region after the East of England with the South becoming more of a swing region (though many Tory seats are LD targets there rather than Labour targets)
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
Remarkable. A densely packed traffic jam of tanks running out of fuel and food. It sounds as though it has the potential to turn into one of the greatest military disasters in history.
It's just baffling. I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate. They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning. We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
Russian advance on Kyiv remains “basically…where it was yesterday” senior defense official told reporters today. "The Russians are not only facing “fuel and sustainment” problems, but are showing signs that they are running out of food, the official claimed. via @MichaelTConte
My local Ukrainian said the Russians have been asking the locals for food...
"Eat lead Comrade"
If they can't sort out logistics on the 5th day of a campaign where they are invading a country literally next door to their own how is the mighty RU army planning to take Lithuania let alone Poland?
Napoleon's armies lived off the land. AKA robbing their way along.
Comments
The invasion was an expression of power, rather than a response to any real or perceived threat.
It just feels wrong.
- The West is divided.
And
- Mother Russia faces a crisis.
So Now Is The Time, for The Strong Man on a Horse.....
We just can’t say it out loud, because the drunk bear has a nuclear bomb and appears to be threatening to use it.
The British monarch, 95, has been fully vaccinated against coronavirus and was previously said to have been suffering mild cold-like symptoms. Despite cancelling some events she continued with light duties after testing positive.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/queen-elizabeth-well-enough-carry-out-virtual-audiences-source-2022-03-01/
Russian Imperialism and British Imperialism. Two sides of the same dud coin.
Reality - I think we still have patchy supplies, but the supply apocalypse never quite happened due to the skill and adaptability of the professions involved, so well done to them.
I also think that we had times in the past where certain things were not in stock, but because we weren't specifically looking for them, we never noticed.
Bit like hem lines and the stock market...
The VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
Not sure I believe that.
No matter what the rights and wrongs of the situation Ukraine is not a member of NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance that requires mutual assistance to an attack on NATO itself.
Now we can argue all we want about whether NATO should in theory be involved in fighting for a friendly neighbour attacked by the big bad bear, but that is not what NATO is. You would be changing the alliance from one of mutual assistance to one of protection of interests out with the borders of member states. That is what Russia claims NATO to be (it is not).
I think two thing are now nailed on:
1. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party at the next UK GE
2. Boris Johnson is leading the Conservative & Unionist Party into a heavy defeat at the next UK GE
(Barring nuclear holocaust.)
That said, the Midlands figure is very good for the Tories, all things considered. It is always the key stat I look at (after I’ve had a good laugh at the BetterTogether2 doofuses.)
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1498693158208741376
- Cases down, R below 1 in all regions, and for all ages.
- In hospital - the bump seems to be part of the natural cycle of the numbers, but bears watching
- MV beds - seems, again to be falling back. to the previous decline. We shall see
- Admissions - still falling, R below 1.
- Deaths - still falling fast.
1. Aggression on NATO soil
2. Russian deployment of banned weapons (NBC WMDs) against civilians.
But in the bully's mind, if we go to war with him directly, we're fighting over a possession, not to save a country. And he has nuclear weapons which he might use in response.
If he fails to conquer the country, then it's probably a different matter.
It's a f@cked up set of mental processes, but we don't get to choose them.
Complete with lots of a lots of NATO military personnel in the Eastern European NATO countries.
So that he knows that we are serious about defending NATO countries. And doesn't attack.
Here's Hushkit on it (I know some people don't like Hushkit, but I think it's okay.)
https://hushkit.net/2021/08/17/successes-and-failures-of-russian-air-power-in-syria/
https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1498627568529981441
HRC members walk out once Lavrov’s video began to play in the session of the Council. Enough of exposure to the deranged lunacy of war criminals. We will listen to you at International Tribunal for War Crimes of Putin’s Regime
Prof. Groeteschele : Who would survive? That's an interesting question. I would predict... convicts and file clerks.
[a male guest laughs, but Groeteschele silences him with expression that is dead serious]
Prof. Groeteschele : The worst convicts - those deep down in solitary confinement - and the most ordinary file clerks, probably for large insurance companies, because they would be in fire-proof rooms, protected by tons of the best insulator in the world: paper. And imagine what will happen. The small group of vicious criminals will fight the army of file clerks for the remaining means of life. The convicts will know violence, but the file clerks will know... organization. Who do you think will win?
[Groeteschele pauses, and then laughs]
Prof. Groeteschele : It's all hypotheses of course, but fun to play around with.
I suspect by far the biggest risk right now is that in times of heightened tension, something can easily go wrong. A flock of seagulls on the radar mistaken for an ICBM, a gung ho Russian Colonel accidentally and without authority engaging a NATO supply convoy on the Polish border, etc.
But we are a lot closer to nuclear apocalypse than we were a week ago and almost certainly closer than we have been in my four decades on this planet. Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get scared.
Us old codgers tend to think that tested conventional wisdoms usually hold, eg that the English Midlands are the key to Westminster success. But I just wonder if that will change this time?
Another conventional wisdom is that once a DNV always a DNV. But I’m pretty sure a lot of 2019 abstainers are going to cast a vote next time.
But I'm not certain enough is being done to prevent Ukraine's defeat.
1) I've done a bit of reading on Sergey Lavrov - interesting character, old style, and not to many people's taste. I do wonder, however, if he may finally be the one to restrain, and possibly even unseat, Putin.
2) It's just possible that Russia's slow progress is partly because they have been ordered not to inflict random civilian casualties if that can be avoided (so that doesn't include 'collateral' damage). So, if civilians are standing in front of tanks, they're not shooting them or running them over. From Putin's point of view, if random civilians are killed at will that would completely remove the (wholly inadequate) pretext he has given for the invasion in the first place, wouldn't it?
The big problem at the moment is one man on a mission with almost unchallenged power and a finger on the nuclear button.
That is a success.
We can also reveal the party's new emblem
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-leader-anas-sarwar-26355469
That column is waiting for the roses to bloom.....
We’d have so much more moral authority and ability to corral the world to push back against the waging of unprovoked aggressive wars like this.
I really fucking hope Putin fails. And that this is the last aggressive war fought in my lifetime.
"A Member of the United Nations against which preventive or enforcement action has been taken by the Security Council may be suspended from the exercise of the rights and privileges of membership by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council. The exercise of these rights and privileges may be restored by the Security Council."
I suspect individual commanders or soldiers are not willing to kill unarmed civilians if they can avoid it.
(1) not 40 miles long, but a series of bunches along 40 miles of the road
(2) hampered by broken down vehicles in "several places", not just one (hence the bunches?)
(3) some tanks, but mainly not combat vehicles at all, but "logistical vehicles".
A serious AA capability would mean, to me, systems that can reach the ceiling for any aircraft.
I always suspected Russian military might might be a little less well-oiled in practice than its leaders might hope. But this is just - shit. Its implausibly bad. I'm half convinced that its some sort of trap - that they are trying to get the west to come in and hit an easy target and take out the whole convoy so that they can escalate and retaliate.
They appear to have almost completely failed to do anything but the most rudimentary planning.
We've known about this invasion for months - surely they have too?
Supplying a column that long is a logistical nightmare unless they use e.g. helicopters. I mean it's not as simple as driving straight past every vehicle to get to the one in front.
It would be lovely if all those in the vehicles just decided, 'you know what, fuck it. Let's run away.'
It also led to a lot of Westerners seing things through a simplistic "anti war" vs "pro war" perspective.
Though Spain of course is still playing in the World Cup and Olympics despite banning a Catalan independence referendum as like Scotland that is an internal matter, not an invasion of a foreign country as Russia's invasion of Ukraine is
I hated that stupid war from the get go. It certainly hasn't helped our moral cause.
However, and it's a big however, that does NOT justify for one scintilla this evil invasion.
Hock ay the noo, Irn Brus and tartan scarves all round!
As to the lack of knowledge and stories of units not knowing what they are supposed to do..... I recall reading in a book by one of the people who rebuilt the American Army after Vietnam that one reform was informing people up and down the chain about what they were doing and why. And contrasting it with the Red Army, where apparently, it was very much a case of "Do X", with no reason or context given.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498666351287754758 alongside https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498687598117756937
I think there is a great divide between what Putin and the military leadership have been told and the reality.
Meanwhile there is a whole set of people in the middle looking at reality against orders and going huh...
This will be even more the case when facing a) civilians, and b) civilians you have been repeatedly told are your brethren.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/1/7327081/
Edit: I see TUD has made the same point, but with rather more punch!
Now London is the safest region for Labour in the UK, Labour got an even higher voteshare in London in 2019 than in Wales and the Northeast.
By contrast the Tories got a lower voteshare in the SouthEast than they did in the East of England and East Midlands in 2019 and the Tories also got a higher voteshare in the West Midlands than they did in the Southwest.
The Midlands is increasingly becoming the Tories safest region after the East of England with the South becoming more of a swing region (though many Tory seats are LD targets there rather than Labour targets)
What the feck are they playing at?