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A Ukraine boost for Johnson in the exit date betting? – politicalbetting.com
A Ukraine boost for Johnson in the exit date betting? – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen from the betting chart there has been a sharpish move to Johnson in the market on when he will cease to be Prime Minister. Just 5 weeks ago a 2022 exit was seen as a 78% chance – now that is down to a 43% one.
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Maybe?
Stanley Pignal @spignal
Marine Le Pen's party is binning its 8-page electoral tract, which features a picture of her shaking hands with Vladimir Putin. Apparently that's not a vote-winner any more! 1.2 million copies had been printed.
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1498636902639017985
If I was betting I would put a bit on him, he is having a good war
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1498641548908670986?t=4B2Ei0GEJ1v4qjrZ-nJ9Ow&s=19
But hey, transferable skills, right?
https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529
Johnson and Starmer are now tied on preferred PM 36% each but Starmer now leads Sunak as preferred PM 37% to 36%.
No way Tory MPs replace Boris on those numbers
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498357496976654337?s=19
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498364904180523010?s=19
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPRUB=X?p=GBPRUB=X&.tsrc=fin-srch
That must have been expensive.
This is where the battle will ultimately be won. If I'm right in my guess, billions must have been spent. Many fighter jets' worth.
EXCLUSIVE: The Scottish Government has refused to say whether it has sought the views of law officers about the competence of the indyref bill, saying it is not in the public interest
Opposition have said "uncomfortable truths" are being kept secret
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1498580109221056514?s=21
200,000 @ over £1,000 to come in, That’s a nice little earner for us Brits. When you are building a pre election tax slash fund, every little helps. As Tory government has made clear, if Ukrainians don’t wish to cough up the money there are alternative routes for the Ukraine refugees, such as the Seasonal Workers Scheme.
"The Russian leadership, which decided on extremely drastic steps, probably understood the consequences, or even consciously aspired to them. The page of cooperation with the West has been turned. This does not mean that isolationism will become the norm, but it does mark the end of an important historical chapter in political relations. The new Cold War will not end quickly."
He notably refrains from endorsing it. If that's typical of senior Russian observers, it does suggest that Putin will not be kept in office if the invasion is seen to fail.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550873-ukraine-action-end-era/
That is an extraordinary statement to be made on RT by the "chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy".
It specifically casts the (current) Russian leadership as "not modern", and "not effective" (by inference).
Ukrainian refugees to use the seasonal workers scheme? Not in my name.
All politics is relative. Events (Boris is a lucky general) recently make people feel that wearing a party hat and even lying about it, while sub-optimal, is not as sub-optimal as killing babies and small children as they sleep, with missiles.
FWIW my own view is that I have no plans to vote Tory while Boris is in charge, (Patersongate and Savile-smearing SKS being the most serious charges) but that would only last as long as another electable leader and party is available.
I think the result of the next election as between Tory led or Labour led (almost certainly in alliance of some sort) is back to about 50/50 - ie a two horse race with no data available which distinguishes between them.
Instead, I wonder if he has a lazy mind. Too often, he chooses not to think too heavily about a topic, perhaps even being swayed by whomever he's talked to recently (e.g. Paterson). I've worked with someone like that in the past: highly intelligent with excellent qualifications, but all too often chose not to use his brain and did random stuff instead. He was also quite impulsive, and I think Johnson might be a little that way too.
I wonder why that would be?
https://twitter.com/zchamu/status/1498486656881643521
In other local developments: Belisha beacons changed to use LEDs rather than whatever they used before.
I would trust Keir Starmer more than Priti Patel on national security matters
There is, incidentally, a very similar passage in Mein Kampf or the second book damning League Of Nations style values vs "blood and soil" nationalism.
However, I'd also say it. And I'm not exactly partisan Labour.
But the underlying dangers are still there. Partygate; wallpapergate; levelling up (or not); tax/NI rises; looming inflation and a cost of living crisis; Northern Ireland; misleading Parliament. Not to mention the government's collective tin ear: the Ukrainian refugee question being the latest exemplar.
On a train carriage yesterday not a single person out of maybe 75 were wearing one.
2023 seems possible and it may be before depending on when Putin falls
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/27/uk-expected-ease-visa-restrictions-ukrainians-fleeing-war
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-immigration-minister-kevin-foster-criticised-for-suggesting-those-fleeing-russian-forces-apply-to-be-fruit-pickers-in-uk-12553282
The devils in their instinctive reaction not being the best of British, and all the devil in the following detail they try to hide from parliament
Bottom line - for all the ridiculous people posting “Boris is safe - the inane positions this team of politicians instinctively make, they are then dragged away from by the true warm spirit of UK, is unnecessary for the Tory party to be responsible for and lose voters over. Truth is, that from this Conservative parliamentary party (especially if it still included some of the great talent Boris ‘ethically cleansed’ in 2019) a far far better leadership and much more competent government can be formed, than this current ragbag mess of Boris toadies
Lab 57
Con 21
LD 12
Grn 5
Ref 2
Rest of South
Con 43
Lab 33
LD 10
Grn 8
Ref 5
Midlands and Wales
Con 39
Lab 38
Ref 6
LD 6
PC 3
Grn 3
North
Lab 48
Con 28
LD 8
Grn 7
Ref 7
Scotland
SNP 50
Lab 18
Con 18
LD 8
Grn 4
GB
Lab 39
Con 34
LD 9
Grn 6
Ref 5
(YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,741; Fieldwork: 24th - 25th February 2022)
Where are the voters going to come from to get a Tory majority? Labour is basically back up to 2017 numbers and I can't see those voters going now Brexit is over and Corbyn is gone.
As a Johnson critic I find it difficult to come to terms with Johnson's very recent campaigning, grandstanding and as I see it milking a desperately sad war.
Others have said on here that Zelensky appreciates Johnson's heightened profile in the light of the war. Maybe they are right and I am cynically wrong, but let's not forget Johnson has a track record as a self-serving, self- publicist. I would add, Biden, Scholz and even our own Ben Wallace seem to be getting the job done with a minimum of fuss.
My view is that he could've received direct Russian donations and there would be enablers claiming that at least the money could now be frozen. Its Trumpian, there will always be excuses, misdirection and outright lies.
The mans not leaving till the election. And he might well win again.
(I've been betting on these assumptions)
In addition I feel he is largely responsible for so much that is bad in politics with the leading parts played by Campbell, Mandleson, Draper (sorry you are so ill, I hope you recover) and some include Brown to put a few in the frame.
The alternative, of course, being not having spent the billions, and the official rates looking more like the unofficial rates reported at the exchanges in Moscow - 15,000 rubles for one Ben Franklin.
What are battlefield nuclear weapons? Is it just the same as big nuclear weapons only designed to make smaller bang considering your own people on the battlefield
Are depleted uranium shells we used in Iraq that made many of our own service people ill classed as battlefield nuclear weapon?
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1498637360745136130
I suspect should Johnson survive Partygate (which is undeserved) he may see problems come the next election. As he knows this, he might cut and run for a snap "a vote for anyone but me is a vote for Putin" election. I have bet on a 2022 GE. I either win over £500 or lose £35.
Even turning into Churchill might be problematic when Dom reminds us of No 10 parties, assuming the current excitement ever dies down.
Tell me, if Scotland had a referendum and separatism won, would you be in favour of another referendum 5 or 6 years later to ask whether they would like to rejoin?
Would you be in favour of some parts of Scotland retaining their membership of UK, rather like some Scots Nats suggested visa vis Scotland and membership of the EU?
It is used for armour piecing rounds for the following reasons
- It is incredibly dense - effectiveness is a function of density
- I can be forged and worked quite easily
- It can be made to self sharpen - as it goes through the armour, bits crack off, making the tip actually sharper.
- It pyrophoricity - after it breaks through the armour, the fragments react violently with oxygen. It pretty much explodes. Which sets fire to everything vaguely flammable.
At least 5 new Russian supply convoys hit today. Logistics are hard at the best of times, when you've unexpectedly launched a war and haven't got any semblance of control over the resupply routes it's even harder, as they're finding out.
As far as I can see, Opinium's lead has grown for Labour and is smaller because of the methodology change.
IPSOS, Focal, Survation still showing large leads?
https://fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202203/t20220301_10646886.shtml
We’ll still have to wait for the official translation, since it could also be translated as battles.
https://twitter.com/StuartKLau/status/1498666912976457738
https://www.military-history.org/back-to-the-drawing-board/back-to-the-drawing-board-the-davy-crockett-tactical-nuke.htm
DU is relatively non-fissile (it's the bit left over when you've removed the stuff you want for A-bombs). It's just heavy and dense (and pyrophoric, it sparks with friction). Which is what one needs for solid shot penetrators in anti-tank guns.
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1498643916228280323
If they're talking about it in Moscow then it must already be common knowledge there.
🙂 in a time of the most depressing war I can rely on PB to put a smile on my face.
Battlefield nukes (tactical nukes) are low-yield weapons designed to punch a small hole in enemy formations. The US even had one, the Davy Crockett, with a yield of just 20 tonnes of TNT. I wouldn't have liked to fire it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device)
I think it was basically superseded by powerful conventional weapons or bombs, such as MOAB.
["On many levels, Bunter's character is deeply unattractive. He is the living embodiment of several of the seven deadly sins: pride, envy, avarice, sloth and, most especially, greed and gluttony.[6] Added to these, Bunter is also nosy, deceitful and obtuse. However these traits are softened by Bunter's cheery optimism, his comically transparent untruthfulness and his reliable ineptitude when attempting to conceal his antics from his schoolfellows and schoolmasters." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Bunter]
#1) restore the whip to Jeremy Corbyn -
https://twitter.com/DawnNute/status/1498666403200741383
No swingback evident in this poll so it seems like it is all down to methodology differences.