I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
Apparently, thinking like that means you have been playing Warhammer 40K....
OK. Not even sure what that is. Clearly the Iraqis didn't either
A certain regular on PB suggested this morning that any idea of attacking that column, in the manner that such column have been attacked many times, meant that you must be a Warhammer 40K player - https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Warhammer_40k_Wiki
Let it go mate.
When speaking on military matters, I much prefer to rely on my experience of playing Hearts of Iron IV. Although I'm such a melt that I exclusively play the Democratic nations and only played as Germany once in order to turn it democratic.
Am I right in thinking it still looks like it is not going well for Putin? Sounds like RU soldiers are not happy and there's a convoy just waiting to be hit to feck by Ukr air force. Meanwhile there's a run on the banks.
The run on the banks is actually the big thing. History tells us that trying to support a currency against a run like this burns though insane amounts of money in no time. See the repeated loans to the US by the US post-war.
That vast pile of cash that Putin has accumulated from oil and gas sales will melt, fast.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
Amazing footage from Melitopol of Ukrainians stopping the onward advance of a Russian convoy and chanting “Occupants!” and “Murderers!” The jittery Russians are firing into the air pic.twitter.com/j3jypGJdgz https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1498655849178402820
Ukrainians copying some Extinction Rebellion tactics. Very brave of them against armed Russians. Russian troops clearly not prepared to run over Ukrainian civilians.
wow! Passive resistance may be very effective.
It's one thing being able to launch strikes into a city, there's presumably some mental distance there. But firing into a crowd? You can find people to do it or prepare people so they will do it, but thankfully this lot are not yet ready for that it seems.
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
Johnson is clearly safe until 2023 now. Bizarre that anybody thinks otherwise.
Haha! CCO confirms 2023 GE.
The next general election was always going to be November 2023 unless things look disastrous for the Tories.
Can't be earlier because you want the new boundaries in place. Can't be later because there is a risk that things turn worse for the Tories
So unless it really looks like there is a lot of good news on the way between November 2023 and May 2024 the safest option is to go for November 2023...
Amazing footage from Melitopol of Ukrainians stopping the onward advance of a Russian convoy and chanting “Occupants!” and “Murderers!” The jittery Russians are firing into the air pic.twitter.com/j3jypGJdgz https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1498655849178402820
Ukrainians copying some Extinction Rebellion tactics. Very brave of them against armed Russians. Russian troops clearly not prepared to run over Ukrainian civilians.
wow! Passive resistance may be very effective.
RU soldiers aren't prepared to shoot their own cousins and fellow Russian speakers?
Putin rages in his bunker. Demands more and more bombing as he gets more desperate.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
No Nato. That's the only thing he can plausibly sell - if he's still in place for much longer.
Given the apparent state of his conventional forces, I wonder exactly how many of Mad Vlad's nukes can actually still fly?
Don’t ask that question or it leads to the next logical questions of how well maintained and stable they are, and how good the security is vs. a determined thief.
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
The Imperial German army was big into table top war gaming, for training their staff officers.....
Most are. Though generally not sci-fi games, and for specific purposes.
Realistic war gamers are looked down on by fantasy/sci fi wargamers according to a wargaming buddy of mine. I couldn't figure out why that might be, but it could just be him.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
The problem with trying to understand what Putin is trying to do, is knowing how much of his own propaganda he believes.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
It should be. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and Russia is 11th.
It probably makes sense the UNSC members should be the US, China, Japan, the EU, the UK, India.
No, as Russia has a bigger military than Japan and the UK and at least the same size as the entire EU.
India's economy is not much bigger than Russia's
Because Japan has been committed to pacifism historically but that mentality is undergoing change. Also, real power is determined by the economic base of a country, which is needed to sustain a military. Japan's economy is three times larger than Russia. And India's GDP is 50% larger than Russia and growing faster.
How strange it is that you are peddling pro-Russian lies.
Real power in the economic arena is determined by economic influence.
Real power in the military arena is determined by the size of your army, navy and airforce and Russia has the third biggest armed forces in the world after the USA and China.
Russia also has the most nuclear missiles of any nation in the world. Japan's economic strength would not be enough to prevent and hold off a Russian invasion of it
India likely will join the UN Security Council by 2050 however, it is the 4th strongest military already and will soon be in the 5th largest economies too
Sign. Again.
Russia has a gigantic conscript army. Of that a tiny fraction is deployable and usable. Recent events suggest that even that is not exactly..... er... world beating....
Some but not all.
It also has enough nuclear weapons to destroy most of the western world
That argument is only going to stack up for so long though.
if Putin tries us on Nato soil, we are going to have to fight him. He is going to to have to meet the full force of a NATO response, nuclear weapons or not.
What makes Johnson so unafraid of triggering WWIII on NATO soil, given he is so afraid of triggering it off NATO soil?
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Strangely, for once in my PB life, I agree. Escalating the conflict is not something we should do, even if it leaves the ball with Putin.
As far as the Russian military performance goes, I think an invasion now of the Baltics is much further away. If they are finding Ukraine this hard, they won't touch them.
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
Possibly. I mean, defending them was the original reason given (since much expanded) and announcing job done, and possibly a corridor to Crimea to boot, would be something. Even if the Zelensky drug nazis were still in place.
Johnson is clearly safe until 2023 now. Bizarre that anybody thinks otherwise.
Haha! CCO confirms 2023 GE.
The next general election was always going to be November 2023 unless things look disastrous for the Tories.
Can't be earlier because you want the new boundaries in place. Can't be later because there is a risk that things turn worse for the Tories
So unless it really looks like there is a lot of good news on the way between November 2023 and May 2024 the safest option is to go for November 2023...
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
The Imperial German army was big into table top war gaming, for training their staff officers.....
Most are. Though generally not sci-fi games, and for specific purposes.
Realistic war gamers are looked down on by fantasy/sci fi wargamers according to a wargaming buddy of mine. I couldn't figure out why that might be, but it could just be him.
It is a common observation that humans divide themselves into groups to look down on each other. A chain of snears....
Given the apparent state of his conventional forces, I wonder exactly how many of Mad Vlad's nukes can actually still fly?
Don’t ask that question or it leads to the next logical questions of how well maintained and stable they are, and how good the security is vs. a determined thief.
On recent evidence, you could probably tow them away with a tractor.....
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
My guilty secret - I run one of the Largest Historical Gaming conventions in the country. Actually 2 of them since we host them twice a year.
I would also point out that contrary to popular belief those particular nerds (myself included) are usually the ones who are most opposed to actual wars in real life.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
Some kind of agreement which guarantees Ukranian neutrality and some kind of autonomy for the Donbas republics and any other Russian speaking areas which have been occupied. If he goes for Kiev itself which it certainly looks like he is then goodness knows. It would mean the permanent presence of the Russian military in Ukraine and that would or could be ruinous, with all the attendant issues.
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
Which might suggest the Army Brass thought Putin was bluffing or would not go through with it.
"He wants to WHAT? WE all thought he was just pissed when he said that! SHiiiiiit.... Get some vehicles rolling towards the border..... I don't care, ANYTHING.....Yeah, a British Covenanter, a burger van....just give me NUMBERS....."
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Strangely, for once in my PB life, I agree. Escalating the conflict is not something we should do, even if it leaves the ball with Putin.
As far as the Russian military performance goes, I think an invasion now of the Baltics is much further away. If they are finding Ukraine this hard, they won't touch them.
I'd call that a highly selective reading of the comments. Sober approach in one area does not preclude very shocking stuff elsewhere, such as NATO shouldn't fulfill its treaty obligations and ex Soviet nations should not have been allowed to join (not that their joining upset Russia, that's true, but that they should not have a right to choose their own path). Dont buy into some debate martyr revisionism.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
Some kind of agreement which guarantees Ukranian neutrality and some kind of autonomy for the Donbas republics and any other Russian speaking areas which have been occupied. If he goes for Kiev itself which it certainly looks like he is then goodness knows. It would mean the permanent presence of the Russian military in Ukraine and that would or could be ruinous, with all the attendant issues.
No true democracy can agree to be neutral in perpetuity without, in effect, surrendering its sovereignty. It has to be its choice, and subject to change if it choices otherwise. Hence that has to be a non-starter as it’s essentially subjugating foreign policy to Russia and/or the west.
Depends on the grounds. I was surprised to hear someone mention earlier today that there is actually a procedure in place to do this. But I got the impression it was based on the country having waged unprovoked war. So I am not sure it would set any precedent for further change.
That said I am not sure what benefit it serves. Even if Russia were prevented from vetoing resolutions we all know that UN resolutions are pretty toothless anyway.
Further I can't see China going along with it even if they are lukewarm towards Russia as they might worry they would be on the receiving end later on when they attack Taiwan.
Lots of reasons why I don't think this will happen but none of them relate to the UK.
I just think you do it once for X reason it becomes mentally easier to imagine doing it again for Y reason, though procedurally and diplomatically would be harder.
As to benefit, I'd say it would be a massive actually. Putin appears obsessed with status, not getting that veto power would enrage him.
But so many nukes I think the security aspect of the security council would prevent removal.
Bear in mind the only way to do it is to actually expel the country from the UN as a whole. This is the only instance under Chapter VI where it is possible to bypass the Veto. So there is no mechanism for simply removing a country against its will from the Permanent membership without also removing it from the UN as a whole.
I think it unlikely that Putin would have remained in position for so long, if he has been surrounded by yes men the whole time. If that is the case then he must be a super human individual; as he has continuously outwitted the west.
Something weird is going on though with the recent change of tone though, and the distancing in meetings. This observation is regularly repeated by Putin observers. Something is up, impossible to say what.
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
Which might suggest the Army Brass thought Putin was bluffing or would not go through with it.
"He wants to WHAT? WE all thought he was just pissed when he said that! SHiiiiiit.... Get some vehicles rolling towards the border..... I don't care, ANYTHING.....Yeah, a British Covenanter, a burger van....just give me NUMBERS....."
When did you get appointed to STAVKA and why are you publishing the minutes of staff conferences?
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
Which might suggest the Army Brass thought Putin was bluffing or would not go through with it.
"He wants to WHAT? WE all thought he was just pissed when he said that! SHiiiiiit.... Get some vehicles rolling towards the border..... I don't care, ANYTHING.....Yeah, a British Covenanter, a burger van....just give me NUMBERS....."
But not the good stuff - no point wasting it on this crap plan and project...
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Strangely, for once in my PB life, I agree. Escalating the conflict is not something we should do, even if it leaves the ball with Putin.
As far as the Russian military performance goes, I think an invasion now of the Baltics is much further away. If they are finding Ukraine this hard, they won't touch them.
I'd call that a highly selective reading of the comments. Sober approach in one area does not preclude very shocking stuff elsewhere, such as NATO shouldn't fulfill its treaty obligations and ex Soviet nations should not have been allowed to join (not that their joining upset Russia, that's true, but that they should not have a right to choose their own path). Dont buy into some debate martyr revisionism.
NATO was creates to defend western Europe and North America only. After the Cold War it should just have expanded to included Poland and Czechoslovakia etc and the Eastern block states.
It was expansion to start including the ex USSR states which in Russian eyes made it an expansionist threat. Though Ukraine should also have been allowed to keep its nuclear weapons which would have avoided Russian invasion anyway
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
Some kind of agreement which guarantees Ukranian neutrality and some kind of autonomy for the Donbas republics and any other Russian speaking areas which have been occupied. If he goes for Kiev itself which it certainly looks like he is then goodness knows. It would mean the permanent presence of the Russian military in Ukraine and that would or could be ruinous, with all the attendant issues.
I still dont see how neutrality can be accepted by Russia though. Ukraine could promise to not join NATO or the EU but as the last week has shown that wouldn't prevent Ukraine leaning toward and getting its support from those entities.
So whilst promising not to join those bodies is clearly a potential Ukrainian concession would it satisfy Russia when Ukrsine6cdm hardly promise to be neutral in all matters?
Additionally what would Russia concede? If Ukraine accepted autonomy for Donbass would Russua have to reverse its recognition of them as independent?
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
Which might suggest the Army Brass thought Putin was bluffing or would not go through with it.
"He wants to WHAT? WE all thought he was just pissed when he said that! SHiiiiiit.... Get some vehicles rolling towards the border..... I don't care, ANYTHING.....Yeah, a British Covenanter, a burger van....just give me NUMBERS....."
When did you get appointed to STAVKA and why are you publishing the minutes of staff conferences?
I think it unlikely that Putin would have remained in position for so long, if he has been surrounded by yes men the whole time. If that is the case then he must be a super human individual; as he has continuously outwitted the west.
Something weird is going on though with the recent change of tone though, and the distancing in meetings. This observation is regularly repeated by Putin observers. Something is up, impossible to say what.
Keeps coming back to he has "Gone Full Tonto", doesn't it?
OT I believe a couple of posters (OKC?) were commenting earlier today about a lack of some foodstuffs on the shelves. Having just been to Waitrose I would suggest it is because they have hijacked every food lorry in the country for themselves. I have not seen them so stuffed with produce for years.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
Isn't "with us or against us wankerism" the philosophical basis for Scottish Nationalism?
I’m still trying to work out what Putin’s off ramp is here.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
He doesn't have one. He wouldn't admit to needing one. Those are not spaces he can occupy.
This can only end with Putin ceeding power to A N Other. That willonly happen by force from within or without. He will not admit defeat or give up. All in my opinion.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
Isn't "with us or against us wankerism" the philosophical basis for Scottish Nationalism?
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
Isn't "with us or against us wankerism" the philosophical basis for Scottish Nationalism?
No.
What’s really Important…..
The flawed vaccine passport app cost £30,000 a day and breached GDPR rules, just to be different from England, their app was offered to Scotland for £0.
'Shambolic' Scottish Government Covid app cost Scots taxpayers £4.5m
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Strangely, for once in my PB life, I agree. Escalating the conflict is not something we should do, even if it leaves the ball with Putin.
As far as the Russian military performance goes, I think an invasion now of the Baltics is much further away. If they are finding Ukraine this hard, they won't touch them.
I'd call that a highly selective reading of the comments. Sober approach in one area does not preclude very shocking stuff elsewhere, such as NATO shouldn't fulfill its treaty obligations and ex Soviet nations should not have been allowed to join (not that their joining upset Russia, that's true, but that they should not have a right to choose their own path). Dont buy into some debate martyr revisionism.
NATO was creates to defend western Europe and North America only. After the Cold War it should just have expanded to included Poland and Czechoslovakia etc and the Eastern block states.
It was expansion to start including the ex USSR states which in Russian eyes made it an expansionist threat. Though Ukraine should also have been allowed to keep its nuclear weapons which would have avoided Russian invasion anyway
Yes well we cannot change history and NATO changed. It's why playing into Putin's arguments on it are pointless since he literally wants to wish away 25 years. Since that's impossible there's no point dwelling on it.
Additionally whether NATO actually would fulfill its obligations for the east is very different to whether it should. If you make an agreement you stick to it unless it is amended.
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Staggering if true in view of repeated media claims it was 40 miles long
I wonder whether there is any work being done on encouraging Russian soldiers in the column to desert? It is odd that it hasn't yet been attacked. It looks like a turkey shoot to me for even an outgunned airforce, or a ground force with anti-tank weaponry?
The 40 mile column is just puzzling. Even if terrain is bad elsewhere you wouldn't put all your mechanised assets in one long column to be taken out by aerial attack even if you thought you had complete control of the skies. Are there other reasons? Possibly following each other as they have no clue where else they are going?
Also if they are all bunched together, what happens if one vehicle in the middle runs out of fuel. Won't it cause the whole column to crawl to a halt? It would be very difficult to get a tanker to the middle of the column to refuel it.
To me the long column seems to be more due to poor logistics than anything else. I'm no military expert but it just doesn't seem to make much sense. I hope I am right.
My guilty secret - I run one of the Largest Historical Gaming conventions in the country. Actually 2 of them since we host them twice a year.
I would also point out that contrary to popular belief those particular nerds (myself included) are usually the ones who are most opposed to actual wars in real life.
I still have my Advanced Squad Leader set, buried somewhere in my cupboard. One or two others too. My favourite was the naval game "Wooden Ships and Iron Men"
For hex based simulations Joni Nuutinen games via the app store are good, though a bit hard to understand without experience of table top games.
Am I right in thinking it still looks like it is not going well for Putin? Sounds like RU soldiers are not happy and there's a convoy just waiting to be hit to feck by Ukr air force. Meanwhile there's a run on the banks.
The run on the banks is actually the big thing. History tells us that trying to support a currency against a run like this burns though insane amounts of money in no time. See the repeated loans to the US by the US post-war.
That vast pile of cash that Putin has accumulated from oil and gas sales will melt, fast.
I'm not sure whether Putin fully thought through the implications of opting out of the international rules based system for which he expresses so much contempt. it's not a perfect system by any means, but it is all we have got to hold together a reasonable;y stable world.
Invading an independent democracy in a war of aggression, without even the flimsiest of legal excises, is a profound violation of the entire system.
The bulk of Russia's overseas trade and finance depends on the operation of those rules, and he really ought not to have been surprised when the benefits of the system were denied to him.
At London's Foreign Office where we've just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total BAN of ALL ships with ANY Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports.
Please RT to encourage all countries to do the same in support of the people of #Ukraine 🇺🇦
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Christ, there's a whole PB attack plan based on it being 40 miles long, supported by hunners of posts! Back to the Warhammer table..
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Christ, there's a whole PB attack plan based on it being 40 miles long, supported by hunners of posts! Back to the Warhammer table..
The promises that the Really Real Russian Army (as opposed to the B team) is just about to kick off seem to be getting smaller.....
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Christ, there's a whole PB attack plan based on it being 40 miles long, supported by hunners of posts! Back to the Warhammer table..
Don't mind how long it is - I just want to see it heading into the city centre to behead the government - Moscow city centre.
At London's Foreign Office where we've just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total BAN of ALL ships with ANY Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports.
Please RT to encourage all countries to do the same in support of the people of #Ukraine 🇺🇦
He also has said they will not and are not invading.
That is a direct challenge to Putin. No question about it.
Not so sure - the Russian line is that the "Independent Republics" aren't part of Ukraine and have invited Russia in, for a spot of de-nazifying the place.
Am I right in thinking it still looks like it is not going well for Putin? Sounds like RU soldiers are not happy and there's a convoy just waiting to be hit to feck by Ukr air force. Meanwhile there's a run on the banks.
The run on the banks is actually the big thing. History tells us that trying to support a currency against a run like this burns though insane amounts of money in no time. See the repeated loans to the US by the US post-war.
That vast pile of cash that Putin has accumulated from oil and gas sales will melt, fast.
I'm not sure whether Putin fully thought through the implications of opting out of the international rules based system for which he expresses so much contempt. it's not a perfect system by any means, but it is all we have got to hold together a reasonable;y stable world.
Invading an independent democracy in a war of aggression, without even the flimsiest of legal excises, is a profound violation of the entire system.
The bulk of Russia's overseas trade and finance depends on the operation of those rules, and he really ought not to have been surprised when the benefits of the system were denied to him.
Well he's worth billions so may not be aware of lack of benefits for others. It ain't the king who goes hungry in a famine.
He also has said they will not and are not invading.
That is a direct challenge to Putin. No question about it.
Not so sure - the Russian line is that the "Independent Republics" aren't part of Ukraine and have invited Russia in, for a spot of de-nazifying the place.
Putin's staked everything on a nuclear threat. Now Lavrov's saying that can never be waged. No - I don't buy that this isn't a challenge - at all.
At London's Foreign Office where we've just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total BAN of ALL ships with ANY Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports.
Please RT to encourage all countries to do the same in support of the people of #Ukraine 🇺🇦
He also has said they will not and are not invading.
Well, yes. Still, given that the only other pronouncements on the topic have been the high alert and the ‘consequences never seen before’ stuff, I’ll take it:
William Koechling @koechlingphoto · 3m Replying to @leahmcelrath The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
Christ, there's a whole PB attack plan based on it being 40 miles long, supported by hunners of posts! Back to the Warhammer table..
The promises that the Really Real Russian Army (as opposed to the B team) is just about to kick off seem to be getting smaller.....
The image of thousands of soldiers looking like Drago out of Rocky IV does seem to be somewhat tarnished.
Am I right in thinking it still looks like it is not going well for Putin? Sounds like RU soldiers are not happy and there's a convoy just waiting to be hit to feck by Ukr air force. Meanwhile there's a run on the banks.
The run on the banks is actually the big thing. History tells us that trying to support a currency against a run like this burns though insane amounts of money in no time. See the repeated loans to the US by the US post-war.
That vast pile of cash that Putin has accumulated from oil and gas sales will melt, fast.
I'm not sure whether Putin fully thought through the implications of opting out of the international rules based system for which he expresses so much contempt. it's not a perfect system by any means, but it is all we have got to hold together a reasonable;y stable world.
Invading an independent democracy in a war of aggression, without even the flimsiest of legal excises, is a profound violation of the entire system.
The bulk of Russia's overseas trade and finance depends on the operation of those rules, and he really ought not to have been surprised when the benefits of the system were denied to him.
Well he's worth billions so may not be aware of lack of benefits for others. It ain't the king who goes hungry in a famine.
As @rcs1000 has mentioned a number of times, the Russian economy has de-industrialised due to the issue with corruption, resource curse etc.
This means that the Russian economy, which drives the military, is extremely vulnerable to being cut off from imports.
Just cashed out my Ukraine to win Eurovision at 3.55. +£200 profit.
Well done!
A lot of talk here about what to do with the World Cup qualifier against Ukraine in Glasgow on 24 March.
A lot of Scots consider it grossly unfair to continue with the match when we would effectively be playing a Youth team, as most adult Ukrainian men are serving their country or otherwise prohibited from turning up.
Consensus seems to be that we should concede the match and they get the 3 points, plus donating all the ticket money to war relief.
Why not give Ukraine a bye all the way to the final and let a Ukrainian youth lift the World Cup trophy?
I think “all the way to the final” might be pushing it. To the finals maybe but Ukrainians are a proud sporting people and would rather watch some actual matches.
There are only 3 places left - the winner of Scotland v Ukraine plays Wales or Austria
Mr Dickson was suggesting handing them the trophy, not just a place in the finals.
Precedent for when HYUFD unleashes the doggies of war upon Scotland. It's the only fecking way we'll have a chance at it..
@HYUFD did it's true receive a lot of stick about certain comments pertaining to Scotland and the Westminster Government's reactions to any potential move towards independence, I'm sure many of them being deliberately provocative.
These past few days, however, he has shown that PB fantasy and actual crisis are well-defined in his head; he has been one of the saner posters on the Ukraine situation.
Well, I may not necessarily go that far but I agree that HYUFD may have got a few too many pelters on this issue, despite some crackpot ideas amongst the reasonable ones.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
Isn't "with us or against us wankerism" the philosophical basis for Scottish Nationalism?
Had to have the map printed not in a screen I see. I wonder how quickly Belarusian state copy and print services turn around a job.
War delayed because I had to go to Staples to print out the map, only to find it was closed. It took me six months to hand-draw it out in crayon on the back of this very large and easily-ripped napkin. I can't guarantee all the arrows are pointing the right way...
Without context of the rest of his remarks I'd have assumed it was more as a warning to others not to get further involved to stop Russia, since if they do no one will win.
Without context of the rest of his remarks I'd have assumed it was more as a warning to others not to get further involved to stop Russia, since if they do no one will win.
I'd be amazed if that is so. These are all veterans of the Soviet era. Everything is contained in layers of code.
Comments
That vast pile of cash that Putin has accumulated from oil and gas sales will melt, fast.
I am going to make the assumption for the purposes of my own sanity that he has not gone completely through the looking glass so as to wipe Ukraine off the map with nuclear weapons/unleash Armageddon out of spite.
If his convoy doesn’t have the desired effect, the army gives up, the crunch hits at home, what does he need to withdraw from Ukraine?
He needs to be able to show something, otherwise he has basically ruined his economy for no reason.
Does he simply take Donestsk and Luhansk and hope everyone forgets all that guff about denazifying Ukraine?
If it was genuinely one dead tank blocking the route, then the next tank in line would drag it the hell out of the way.
Can't be earlier because you want the new boundaries in place.
Can't be later because there is a risk that things turn worse for the Tories
So unless it really looks like there is a lot of good news on the way between November 2023 and May 2024 the safest option is to go for November 2023...
Putin rages in his bunker. Demands more and more bombing as he gets more desperate.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498675925017370629
Which might suggest the Army Brass thought Putin was bluffing or would not go through with it.
A common mistake in the past, is to believe that the Other Guys are far too rational to buy into any of that silly dogma they spout.
If Putin truly believes that the existence of a Westernised Ukraine is a threat to the existence of Mother Russia, then this all makes more sense. He sees his back against the wall.....
if Putin tries us on Nato soil, we are going to have to fight him. He is going to to have to meet the full force of a NATO response, nuclear weapons or not.
What makes Johnson so unafraid of triggering WWIII on NATO soil, given he is so afraid of triggering it off NATO soil?
As far as the Russian military performance goes, I think an invasion now of the Baltics is much further away. If they are finding Ukraine this hard, they won't touch them.
In a strongish field, one of the very worst aspects of this place is the 'with us or against us' wankerism that is never far away.
I would also point out that contrary to popular belief those particular nerds (myself included) are usually the ones who are most opposed to actual wars in real life.
Enhanced intelligence reveals that the sole occupant of the tank is from Essex and keeps asking on the radio for directions to Scotland.
Correct: 78%
Not correct: 16%
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498657791497715720
Something weird is going on though with the recent change of tone though, and the distancing in meetings. This observation is regularly repeated by Putin observers. Something is up, impossible to say what.
It was expansion to start including the ex USSR states which in Russian eyes made it an expansionist threat. Though Ukraine should also have been allowed to keep its nuclear weapons which would have avoided Russian invasion anyway
So whilst promising not to join those bodies is clearly a potential Ukrainian concession would it satisfy Russia when Ukrsine6cdm hardly promise to be neutral in all matters?
Additionally what would Russia concede? If Ukraine accepted autonomy for Donbass would Russua have to reverse its recognition of them as independent?
Those are not spaces he can occupy.
This can only end with Putin ceeding power to A N Other.
That willonly happen by force from within or without. He will not admit defeat or give up.
All in my opinion.
Putin's stuffed, I think.
William Koechling
@koechlingphoto
·
3m
Replying to
@leahmcelrath
The "40-mile long" convoy was said to have been a translation error. It's 3 miles long and the distance between Kyiv and the convoy was 40 miles. That's the report I heard last night.
I dare you....
The flawed vaccine passport app cost £30,000 a day and breached GDPR rules, just to be different from England, their app was offered to Scotland for £0.
'Shambolic' Scottish Government Covid app cost Scots taxpayers £4.5m
https://twitter.com/Henrythejannie/status/1498566559907913733?
💷Worker's National Insurance UP 1.25%
⛽️Energy price cap UP to nearly £2,000.
🏦Council taxes UP across the land
😡Millions more dragged into higher income tax rate
But £2,121 MORE for MPs who did it to us.. wey hey. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1498682854481477638
Additionally whether NATO actually would fulfill its obligations for the east is very different to whether it should. If you make an agreement you stick to it unless it is amended.
For hex based simulations Joni Nuutinen games via the app store are good, though a bit hard to understand without experience of table top games.
Invading an independent democracy in a war of aggression, without even the flimsiest of legal excises, is a profound violation of the entire system.
The bulk of Russia's overseas trade and finance depends on the operation of those rules, and he really ought not to have been surprised when the benefits of the system were denied to him.
We do still have to remember that NATO is a defensive alliance.
At London's Foreign Office where we've just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total BAN of ALL ships with ANY Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports.
Please RT to encourage all countries to do the same in support of the people of #Ukraine 🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1498618451283300355
@IsraelinUSA @IsraelMFA
Photo: http://ZN.UA https://twitter.com/eric_hontz/status/1498682815692644358/photo/1
https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498684583944114181
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/03/p5-statement-on-preventing-nuclear-war-and-avoiding-arms-races/
This means that the Russian economy, which drives the military, is extremely vulnerable to being cut off from imports.
I hope they're being put to good use.
Ukraine does seem to have sent some people up here over the edge. The latest one...(not counting @StuartDickson )
https://www.scotsman.com/news/people/msp-apologises-for-tweet-comparing-ukraines-crisis-to-scottish-independence-3590953
"Michelle Thomson SNP MSP apologises for tweet comparing Ukraine's crisis to Scottish independence"